Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Yosarian2]

Confirmed.

Not sure what the point of random voting is in this game...but since it looks like in the rules you can change your ballot as often as you want, I guess there's no real harm it it.

[Yosarian2]

So, if everyone votes, is day 0 instantly over, or does the day always last until the deadline? What happens if some people haven't voted yet by deadline?

[Yosarian2]

Shy guy, your normal playstyle may be to be "very quiet", but that just won't cut it this game. All we'll have to go in is what people say today, and that's it. So if you are quiet, then you should and will tend to be fairly high on most people's list of suspects. This is not a game that will reward lurking, methinks.

As for your points, sure, figuring out some people who are especally pro-town would be very helpful, and if we're right it could win the game for us. Any thoughts on how to do that?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, I try and have lots of content in my posts without dithering and speak only when I have something good to say, if possible. Are you saying you would construe that as suspicious lurking? The answer to your second question will likely vary for each of us, just as it would had you asked how we are to go about looking for mafia.

Well, that depends on how often you "have something good to say", heh. If you don't post content at least once every few days, then yeah, I would generally consider that as suspicious lurking.

I just wanted to mention that, because I was a bit worried that line in first post might have been something of a pre-emtive defence to allow you to lurk later in the game, if that makes sense.

Opie, why must we go about finding scum? Why not go about finding town? Why would town players evidence themselves in one activity and not the other?

Well...discussing who you think is pro-town is useful, and in this game especally it's certanly something I want to hear about. That being said, quite often, the reactions you get when person A accuses person B of being scum, person B defends himself, and other people react to that situation, are often more explosive and informative then the reactions you might get if person A said "person B is giving me a bit of a pro-town vibe".

[Yosarian2]

Sarc is giving me a bit of a pro-town vibe.

Liar!

[Yosarian2]

Ok...so, some general points on stratagy:

1. Shy Guy' origional point is correct; if we can figure out correctly that X, Y, and Z are pro-town, and we all put them at the bottom of our lists, then we win. Of course, the correllary to that is that if we do that and it turns out that Y or Z is scum, we lose.

2. As scum's voting lists are (I assume) more likely to hurt us then to help us, if we can catch a scum and all rank him high and he gets voted off early, then at least his votes won't hurt the town in future pre-decided days, right?

3. I'm really interested in VD's idea...Not really sure how that could work. All the obveous stratagies I see (like 1 and 2) seem to involve most of us ranking most people in a similar way...even just figuring out what happens if we all rank people differently seems tricky, and I can't imagine how we could arrange it so that the town is guarenteed to win. Could you explain in a little more detail how that might work, VD? Even a half-completed thought or somethign that might help me figure out where you're coming from might help.

[Yosarian2]

1. I pretty much said the same thing earlier, but its good to have someone else that noticed this large flaw with me. Do you think anything of the players that want to go along with this "rank as town/scum" plan still, if it means that it would be a loss to the town if scum got on the bottom of our lists?

Neah. At least if we all do that together, and all agree to all rank on the bottom together the people we think are less scummy, then we win or lose based on the correctness of our deductions, which isn't a bad palce to be. If we all do different things, then, uh...then I'm not really sure what happens

2. This is correct, I think a good way to catch scum would be to look at how their ballots compare to others.

Good point. Also if a few people suddenly shift their vote order in subtle ways for wierd, mysterious reasons as the deadline is approaching, look out. That being said, at least the scum won't know exactally when the deadline IS, so if they try to take advantage of us there a quick acting town might be able to respond to it.

3. I think there is a possible way with the numbers, but the theory I have would still come down to requiring one other person who is near confirmed town. And I need to test this theory more. If anyone else has ideas of how this could be pulled off, please by all means let us know.

Hmmm...ok. Seems like no matter what, though, we always end up with at least 2 people at endgame, and they both have to be town or we lose, right?

[Yosarian2]

I really would like to avoid the scenario I mentioned in point 1 though. I think that deductions can be deceitful, and I don't want to use them as the sole method of deciding whether we win or the scum win.

But that's all we've got to go on this game. Our deductions will determine if we win or not, that's unavoidable I think.

I really only see two real options, help me out if you come up with a thrid one. The question is, do we want to come to some kind of general concensus now and all make our votes look the same (at least as far as, say, the bottom 3 go), or should we all "vote naturally", which makes it a little harder to predict and perhaps a little easier for scum to manipulate and to use their votes to help themselves out, but is probably easier to do, and also has the benifit that the people we generally think are less scummy (and thus who live longer) would tend to have more influince on the way the later stages of voting go.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Well, Sarc, if we really wanted a general consensus, if the large majority of us really thought it was for the good of the town, we could basically force one, since all votes are public and anyone not going along with the consensus could quite easily and effectivly be pressured by the collective will of the rest of the town.

I'm not really sure we would want to do that, though.

[Yosarian2]

You directed a question directed at opie?

(looks back)

Ah, I see, you had origionally directed that question about "why should we hunt scum" specifically at opie. I was assuming that we were pretty much just discussing general stratagy, so I explained to you why I think hunting scum helps us figure out alignments better then hunting town would.

Was there some reason you specifically wanted opie to answer the question?

[Yosarian2]

Mafia is about evaluating people's intentions. If you (Yosarian2) interject your opinion before they (opie) are able to answer a question, how am I to evaluate their response if it is at all similar to yours? Feel free to proffer your opinions

after

the person specifically addressed has responded, but doing so beforehand only serves to pollute any information that might be gleaned from their answering of the question.

That's not really the question I asked you, though.

How would him explaining what seems to me to be a fairly obveous point of general stratagy help you "evaluate" him?

The distinction between relational and alignment information aside, what do you all think about my points on Ectomancer?

Meh. I don't have a strong opinion of Ecto's alignment yet, one way or the other.

[Yosarian2]

Opie seems to mostly be repeating things other people have said. Not sure if this is scummy or just a sign of inexperence, but I'd like to see some thoughts of his own.

VanDamien hasn't said much yet. Neither has springlullaby. Definatly need to hear more from them.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, why would someone's position on general strategy

not

help me analyze them?

Um...because an obveous point of general stratagy like that could quite easily be made by anyone of any alignment?

[Yosarian2]

Well, of course we want to hear everyone discussing stratagy. I'm just bemused that you're annoyed that I answered a question as basic as "how does looking for scum help us figure out who is town". That is a "obveous point of general stratagy", and it's not one that's really affected much by the mechanics of this game.

[Yosarian2]

While I'm flattered by the whole pledging thing, Ecto, I will agree that it's a little unnerving, even when it's me you're following. For one thing, it seems like that might make it harder for us to figure out your alignment, if you just copy/paste my list and post it; I mean, I haven't even posted a list yet, how do you know if you'll at all agree with mine?

Anyway, remember, anyone who hasn't posted a ballot before the 25th is modkilled. I'm about to go and read through everyone's posts and put together a first draft of my ballot right now, and I'd suggest everyone else do the same; once most people puts down some kind of non-random (or at least not completly random) ballot, then I think we'll be better able to see where we stand and start to look for patterns and such.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so here's my analysis so far. I’m going to do sort of a “point scale” thing here to show who I think is more pro-town and who is more scummy. Positive points means I think you’re looking more pro-town, negative points means I think you’re looking more scummy. Also note that, right now, people who haven’t posted content at all yet tend to be ranked at -1; this will continue to drop the longer they go without posting content. There’s only 4 pages so far, so there’s very to go on and so most of these ratings aren’t based on that much and I expect them to change a lot before deadline, but this seems like the best way to get content started and to get the ball rolling here, and we’ve got a very limited time scale, so here goes.


Andersonw: 3 posts so far. Post 1, conformation post, no content. Post 2, a few minor strategy points, and post 3, a somewhat interesting response to a post of Ecto’s. Neutral vibe on him so far, no real data. +0

Ecto: Quite active, which seems to be normal for him. Seems to be trying right from the start to look at players and relationships between players, and to be trying to get reactions out of people. Has given his personal opinion on a number of players, and they generally make sense to me. I don’t know if It the “pledging” strategy he’s suggested, but generally looks pro-town to me at the moment. +3

Max: Started with a random vote. One of the first people in the game to make a list of what he thinks of everyone else in the game; and while there’s not much to go on, in general his analysis posts of other playesrs make sense so far. Moderately pro-town vibes, +2

Nocmen: A lot of content. His question of Max’s page 1 early “andrew is clearly scum” comment is a bit odd, but probably harmless. Some strategy discussion. No strong sense on him yet, but at least he’s active and I could see a pro-town person making the kind of posts he’s made, so +1.

Oman: Posted a list, hasn’t really explained it yet or said all that much. Could you explain why you think Max and Nocmen are both suspicious looking but are probably not scum together, Oman? At the moment, neutral vibes on him, +0

Opie: Like I said, a lot of his posts feel like they’re echoing what other people have already said on strategic points. He also hasn’t really said anything about what he thinks about other players, or said anything that’s really impacted the game. That feels scummy to me. -2

Sarc: Good strategy discussion so far. Generally giving off good vibes. I would like to hear more about what he thinks about other specific players, though. For the moment, I’d say +1.

Shy Guy: Seems pretty pro-town to me. Interesting strategic thoughts early on. Seems rather paranoid (especially of me, heh), but that can be a sign of a nervous townie. Seems to be seriously trying to figure out who is scum long before anyone else is. I think he’s probably pro-town. +3

Springlullaby: Still hasn’t posted any content. Am waiting to see that “reread and list” she promised to post “shortly” on Friday. Until she does post some content, -1.

Thesp: Hasn’t posted content yet. Confirmed and said he would “check in more later”. Is he on vacation or something, does anyone know? -1

VanDamien: Also hasn’t posted any real content. Suggested that there might be some complicated mathematical way to break the setup; I don’t think there is, and he hasn’t yet came back to explain it. -1

Results:

Most scummy -----> least scummy

Opie -2
VanDamien/Thesp/springlullaby -1
Andersonw 0
Sarc/Normcon +1
Max +2
Shy Guy/Ecto +3

[Yosarian2]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

[Yosarian2]

What do you mean just today, ecto? There only is today in this game. The ballots we have when we get to deadline will determine if the town wins or the town loses.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, and by the way, Ecto, you can't quite copy and paste there, since your list has to have my name on it somewhere and you don't put your own name on to your own list.

[Yosarian2]

You know, it's ok to request a replacement in the thread.

Anyway, don't worry too much about the math. Just figure out who you think is most scummy and who is least scummy, and it should work out.

[Yosarian2]

VanDamien: Is there some reason you think I'm the most suspicious person in the game? Or, perhaps, did you put your list upside down by mistake?

[Yosarian2]

Huh, I didn't mean to leave Omen off my list; I had him in my analysis, if you look back.

Code: Select all

[quote="Yosarian2"][code]opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

As for "the interactions", well, I can't help that. Attacking me because Max randomally put me at the bottom of his list in post 1 of the game is kind of silly; do you really think scum partners would be that obveous?

I seem to get this all the time in this kind of games, it's almost predictable; first everyone thinks I'm protown, then I get people who start to get paranoid about me because other people think I'm pro-town. Same thing happened in both reverse mafia and reverse mafia vanillia.

Anyway, it's quite bizzare that your list appears to be basically the exact opposite of my list, with everyone in very nearly reversed order, which was why I asked if you did it that way on purpose. Could you explain why you have people who haven't said anything yet all game as your "most pro-town people" on your list? The key part of the lists is who everyone thinks is most pro-town, and your two most pro-town people are lurkers, which seems bizzare to me. Care to clarify? Why do you think those should be the last two people left alive?

[Yosarian2]

Gob blang it, I stink at these code tags.

Code: Select all

opie 
VanDamien 
Thesp 
springlullaby 
andersonw 
oman 
Nocmen 
Sarcastro 
Max 
Ectomancer 
Shy Guy 

[Yosarian2]

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I do?

You asked me about if the pledging thing could reflect on someone's alignment; I thought that was made clear by the way I responded to ecto, but if it wasn't clear, then yes, of course it could.

Was there anything else?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Shy Guy. When everyone thinks he's town, it makes me think he's not so town.

That dosn't actually make any sense, you know. There are always going to be a few people that most people think are more likely to be town then scum, and you know it certanly is possible for the majority to be right; if it wasn't, then this game wouldn't work.

Anyway, were you going to answer my question, Oman? Why do you think Max and Nocman are likely to be scum but not scum together? Or explain why anyone is where they are on your list?

[Yosarian2]

Hey guys, read to page three and decided to put out some 2-cents on stuff.
First of all, Shy Guy is at the top of the list for trying to 'set' the way that people do their lists.

I think that if we set a 'rule' about how to arrange things on the list, that the mafia will try hard to sabotage that rule. I believe that if you say "Let's all agree on who's the most TOWN and put them at the bottom", you are giving Scum a free ride to the bottom; All they have to do, then, is play like an innocent townie, working on people's good graces enough to get them close to the bottom. Their partners can be the 'scum', trying to antagonize players enough to get others suspicious of them, etc.

Um...that dosn't make much sense, you know. If everyone thinks that person X is town, then person X will be at or near the bottom of the lists of the pro-town players. Duh. Isn't that obveous?

And for that reason, I have put Yosarian2 second on the list.
I really did *NOT* like his warning to be suspicious of people who are changing their list close to the end of the day.

Why not?

I'm worried of the possibility that the scum might keep a fairly innocuas list for most of the day, and then as a group change their lists right at the end of the day to a position, at a point when the town won't have much time to respond. Now, the fact that no one knows exactally when the deadline is makes that harder for the scum, but nonetheless, that's the kind of manuever we've got to watch out for and be prepared to respond to.

Which isn't saying that no one should change their votes right before the deadline, of course; I expect people to be changing their votes constantly, I know I will be. If you thought I was trying to imply that people should never change their votes, you misunderstood me.

[Yosarian2]

The whole point of Shy Guy's thing is to focus on the end game and not everything before then. I think the best thing is for all of us to discuss and put the scummiest people up top. Don't let an oily scum get to end game. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest, just in case, that the most TOWN player be lynched close to the beginning, too.

...

what?

...

no, really, what?

If we can get rid of a scum early, great, that helps our odds and loweres the impact teh scum have on the game. But the only thing that really matters is what two guys are left at the end.

And that "let's lynch off someone because they look townie" is just...horrible.

I know I will be changing my votes , too. There's a BIG difference between "scum might move en masse" and "be wary of anyone changing their lists close to deadline" - for instance, the first suggests scum groups, the second suggests single people. Maybe you meant it, originally, to be 'a block' but it's not how I remember reading it.

This is what I said

Also if a few people suddenly shift their vote order in subtle ways for wierd, mysterious reasons as the deadline is approaching, look out

I was pretty clearly talking about multiple people shifting their votes right before the deadline, and doing it for vauge, unclear reasons. That's what I was worried about, and that's something the town has to watch out for, I think.

[Yosarian2]

Well, Sarc, is there anyone you do feel like you have a read on? As I mentioned in my analysis, you haven't really commented on any specific players yet.

[Yosarian2]

Thesp: Care to explain why, exactally, you think I'm "questionable"?

It feels like I'm about to get lynched here just because a few people thought I looked pro-town early on, and that's basically insane.

[Yosarian2]

I understand why you might feel that way reading over responses so far, but it seemed to me that during significant conversations between several players, you chose to focus (largely to the exclusion of others) on a conversation with Shy Guy which I thought didn't really say much of anything significant. I thought you were deliberately avoiding interaction with other players.

Eh? Shy Guy was asking me why I answered a question directed at another player. How is that "not significant" in a game where the only thing we've got to go on is interaction between players? Would you rather I ignored the question there?

And I hardly think I'm "avoiding interactions" with anyone.

By the way, Thesp, could you explain why you think Skruffs is pro-town?

[Yosarian2]

He's not lynched yet.

That's just how the day WOULD go if it were to end now. The day dosn't actually end until we hit deadline. The deadline will be some random time between March 3rd and March 14th; we have until then to change our votes if we don't like the way it's currently going.

So, at the moment, we're set up to lynch Max first, unless people change their votes. Max, could you explain why you have been quietly moving me farther and farther up your list?

[Yosarian2]

yos: why is it insane that you 'are about to get lynched' for seeming pro town? does anything strike you as odd that so many people are 'clearing' you so early in the day?

It's insane if some people suspect me simply because other people think I'm town, yes. That's the worst kind of crap logic, a pretty much pure example of the "too townie" fallacy. And it's self defeating logic anyway; there's always going to be someone who's at the bottom of everyone's lists, and saying "X is scummy because he's at the bottom of A, B, and C's list" without some other logical reason to suspect X or to suspect A, B, and C is just inherently illogical.

As for do I think it's odd, no, not really. In both reverse mafia and vanillia reverse mafia (games when everyone voted for the least suspicious person, to choose who they wanted to "revive"), I was picked as the most pro-town person during day 1, and I was pro-town both times. So no, it dosn't seem at all wierd for a fair number of people get a strong pro-town vibe from me during day 1.

[Yosarian2]

173: yos: what do YOU think about me? you seem to be skirting an issue in askign thesp about me.

I think you're somewhat suspicious at this point. I also have my doubts about Thesp. When one person I'm somewhat suspicious of says another person I'm somewhat suspicious of looks pro-town, I'm going to ask for an explination.

[Yosarian2]

With 7 people alive, it is important to note that this is lylo land if one scum has not been lynched by this point.

Note that this is not quite true:

[15] The Town wins if all the Mafia are lynched.
[16] The Mafia win if (a) all the Townies are lynched; or (b) only 2 players remain alive, one of whom is Mafia.
[17] The game will not end in any other case (including, for example, if there are 2 Mafia and 2 Townies; or even 2 Mafia and 1 Townie). Even the Mafia in this village are methodical.

Even if mafia make up half the town, they don't automatically win.

[Yosarian2]

Sarc: Do you really think it's likely that me and ecto are scum together?

I mean, seriously; if ecto was my scum buddy, I can't imagine him making a huge hairy deal out of "pledging" his vote to me or whatever it was he did there. If he really wanted to do that, he could have just said "I agree with Yosarian" or something and posted a similar ballot, and it wouldn't have been nearly as conspicious or attention grabbing.

Personally, while it's WIFOM, I don't really see ecto as scum playing it this way.

[Yosarian2]

Ecto, stop being foolish. Random lists do

not

give the town the best chance at winning any more than random lynches do in regular games. The whole point of the game is to

hunt for the scum

, not to roll the dice and hope that we win. Even if we

did

have a better chance that way, I still wouldn't want to, because it

removes the entire point of the game

. It would suck all the fun and all the challenge out.

Oddly, I agree with sarc here. I don't think that randomness is in the town's best interest here. If everyone voted at random, then that would give the town a, um, I think a 9/16 chance of winning, only slightly better then 50/50. But I doubt the scum are voting at random, I would guess they're voting to help themselves, so that makes the odds even worse.

ANd this "no one should move their votes at all" thing is just silly. I would hope pro-town votes will get better and better over time as we get more information.

[Yosarian2]

In fact, I'm going to shift my votes a bit right now.

Opie: Was previously at the top of my list for "me-too" play. He has stopped doing that, and in general his recent posts make more sense. Going to move him down a bit on the list.

VanDamien: Scummy. Has posted very little, seems to have very poor and seemingly illogical choices; I can understand people suspectecting ecto, but he keeps refusing to explain why shy guy is so high on his list. Hasn't really explained anything. And honestly, even if I wasn't sure he was scum, I would still want to get him out of the voting pool early, just because the bottom two people on his list are Thesp and Skruffs, who are currently my other two top suspects. It's also worth noting that VanDamien is currently (and strangly) quite low on Thesp's list, no reasons given.

Sarc: Bah. Still really no bad vibes from him, but it seems like he's, well, wrong about a lot of stuff. Could you explain why you have Skruffs at the bottom of your list, Sarc? Also, you have VanDamien somewhat low on your list (fourth from bottom); what do you think about him, specifically?

Thinking about this, it really seems to me that the key is going to be those last few survivors, and if I think someone has scum at the bottom of their lists, then I might want that person out of the voting pool early no matter what their alignment is just to help prevent a scum win. I'm not certain if that's right, though...this voting system still kind of confuses me.

Thesp: You said you're now a bit more wary of Skruffs, but you still have him second-from-bottom on your list. Could you be a little more specific? I'm also wondering why you have VanDamien so low on your list.

Ecto: If I had to guess, I'd still think he's a pro-town guy trying out wierd stratagies for a wierd theme game. I don't really agree him much here on stratagy, but I have trouble figuing out how anything he's done could help him as scum. I'll still leave him fairly low on my list, I think.

Andrew still hasn't posted all that much. Waiting to see the promised explination for his list.

So, mostly just some cosmetic changes from my previous list for now. VanDamien up from #2 to #1, Opie down several notches, down to under Thesp and Skruffs. Expect more changes once Thesp and Sarcastro answer my questions.

Code: Select all

VanDamien 
Thesp 
Skruffs 
andersonw 
opie 
Oman 
Nocmen 
Sarcastro 
Max 
Ectomancer 
Shy Guy 

[Yosarian2]

I disagree that shifting votes right now is scummy, but I do think once March 3 hits anyone switching votes is bad.

I'm not sure that's true either. After "deadline" is when the quality of information we get is going to go up, and people should be willing to modify their votes based on new information.

[Yosarian2]

Opie, ShyGuy, and Yos: Why should I think you are town?

opie and yos, I am waiting on responses from this before submitting my new ballot.

Um...because I am? How do you expect me to answer a question like that?

I'd like to think I've been active and trying to help the town, trying to figure out people's alignments and such. I donno, read my posts and make up your own mind.

[Yosarian2]

Skruffs, why, exactally, should a pro-town person be willing to get himself lynched? It seems like if you're in a position where you might get to the top 2 or 3, and you know you're pro-town, then if you can stay there that greatly increases the town's chances of winning, right? Or am I missing something?

[Yosarian2]

Lol. I wish I understood what Ecto is doing here, but I still can't seriously see him as scum.

I also note that earlier in the game, I mostly agreed with Max's list; most of the people near the bottom of his list seemed pro-town to me, most of the people near the top of the list seemed scummy to me. Now, two days before deadline, he's almost completly flipped his list, putting the people I think are likely pro-town at or near the top and putting the people I think are likely scum lower and lower. Makes me wonder if he started out the game trying to buddy up with prot-town people, and we're now starting to see what he really wants to see happen. I think he's going to move up my list soon.

[Yosarian2]

As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

Wait...what? It was shy guy who proposed that we try to find pro-town players, not Van Damien. Van Damien's only stratagy contrabution was to wonder if there was any way to break the game, and then later to decide that there was not.

[Yosarian2]

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

...why?

I thought you made clear that you were copying my ballot partly because you trusted me. You would have really copied the ballot of a person you thought was scum? How could that have possibly helped the town?

[Yosarian2]

Sarcastro, I put you near the top due to the fact that while you are searching for scum, you are getting too focused in a few key debates against people (Note: ecto), becoming very aggressive, and just attacking him even more after it's been made certain that he is scum, seems as distancing in order to slide into the final few.

Wait...when was it "made certain" that Ecto is scum?

Seriously, his play this game has not been, well, good, but it's not been good scum-play either. If you want to convince people Ecto is scum, you've got to say more then "his arguments are bad", you've got to demonstrate how those bad argumetns actually would help him if he was scum. And I can't see any way how his odd behavior so far this game would help him if he is scum.

[Yosarian2]

Well, you can call it manipulation, but it's certanly not manipulation he's in control of, and the fact that he actually rolled dice and chose randomally makes it even harder to imagine how it could be a scum tactic. I donno, I personally just can't see a scum giving complete control of all of his votes over to a pro-town person, especally consdiering how devious a scum could be with a ballot in this game.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2 is lynched day 10.

opie and Shy Guy remain.

Ok, that's fine by me. I'm not 100% sure about opie, but all in all, I think we could do a lot worse. No ballot changes from me unless I need to respond to someone else's changes, I think.

Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

Maybe this is just paranoia on my part -- maybe the scum are Max Oman and VanDamien and they are just screwed, and that's why there isn't a flurry of ballot changes. But since there isn't, either scum are out of reach of winning, or ARE winning, and the second prospect worries me greatly.

Eh...I wouldn't let yourself get too tied up in knots with that kind of thinking. Sure, the deadline might happen any time now, but it also might not happen for 11 days, and if the scum make any sudden scummy vote changes now, they might give themselves away; they might be waiting for their moment when they can either find a good excuse to change their votes; it all depends on what kind of russian roulette they feel like playing.

Or, the scum might be lurking, might be someone like Andrew and Van Damien and someone else. Or they might be hoping to get people to second guess themselves like you are right now, or they might be expecting townies to make some more changes before the deadline. Could be any number of things.

Now, like I said, I'm not 100% sure that Opie is town, but I don't think it's necessarally a good idea to second guess yourself in a situation like this just based on speculation about what the scum might want to do, especally with a wierd factor like the highly uncertain deadline.

[Yosarian2]

Well, it goes without saying that I'd rather be in the top two, obv. However, I'm pretty sure you're pro-town, and opie seems pretty pro-town to me at the moment; I think the odds of you both being pro-town are high enough that I'm not really interested in rocking the boat right now.

[Yosarian2]

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

Personally, I think that one of the scum just did change his ballot; I'm increasingly thinking Thesp is probably scum. His last minute ballot change makes me even more convinced ShyGuy is town.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still worried about Yos. I don't like how he's getting so far when nobody seems to be willing to go out on a limb and say they actually have a pro-town read on him. It feels like people are just putting him near the bottom by default, and under no circumstances should he be in the final two. I'd also like to point out to both Shy Guy and Skruffs that if you guys had Yos closer to the top, it would probably help Skruffs make it futher.

Think about this for a minute, though; almost no matter who the scum is, if the third from bottom person was their scumbuddy, they would have figured out a way to get me into the top 2 by now. It wouldn't be that hard. I'm hoping that they're just having a lot of trouble figuring out how to rig the vote because the #3 person is town as well, which makes it a lot harder for them.

[Yosarian2]

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

I don't think locking down is an inherently good plan, but I did, in fact, state that I am not planning to move my ballot from now on except in response to other people changing their ballots.

[Yosarian2]

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

[Yosarian2]

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town? Yosarian2, why do you think Shy Guy is town?

I have a feeling that whatever I say here, your plan is to use it as "proof" that me and Shy Guy are linked, but I'll answer the question anyway.

Well, he's acted in a very pro-town way, in my opinion. Starting with his suggestion that we should be trying to figure out who is town (dispite your earlier comment, he was the first one to suggest that), and his almost immediate attempts to start asking people questions and try to figure out people's alignments. Right away, I got a distint feeling he was trying to figure me out by asking me a series of leading questions, and while it seemed like he didn't trust me, he really struck me as someone who seemed like a pro-town person honestly trying to figure out who the scum was right from the start.

He then continued to do some of the best scumhunting I'd seen so far in the game; this post is one good example of that.

Ecto, roll dice and I'll accept your premise of random selection. Yosarian2 is being selected by choice. Also, what guarantee have we that Yosarian2 picks wisely? The pledging system has problems.

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

I am very conflicted on Yosarian2 and Ectomancer right now -- I want to think I was right that Ectomancer is town, and Yosarian2 is appearing very townish recently... but I have the odd suspicion I might be getting burned. Scum definitely would want to have 3 identical ballots -- and pledging seems a great way to achieve that.

Oman, I find a stark contrast:

I put yos2 at the bottom because I believe him to be town.

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

Could you explain?

VanDamien appears to be trying to be helpful while not being so. His plan to "guarantee a win" didn't amount to anything at all, and his voting list seems to be a rough ranking of most active posters to least.

springlullaby's post seems very, very much like it is coming from a townie.

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I'd like to remind everyone we only have a couple of weeks to finish this game.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
springlullaby

Whew. Quite a long post.

All game, he's been quite active, he's been acting in a pro-town way, he hasn't acted in a way that feels to me like he has something to hide or like he's afraid of being connected to any specific people. He continually analyzes other people's play, gives constructive stratagy advice, and basically reacts in ways I would expect a pro-town person to react.

(shrug) Of course, we don't have anything solid on anyone this game. However, I will say that I think Shy Guy is less likely to be scum then pretty much anyone else in the game; if he is scum, he's really damn good at it.

[Yosarian2]

Shy Guy, I'm sorry, but you're really starting to annoy me. Why are you so obsessed with questioning my pro-town read on VD? I've explained it as well as I can - what he was suggesting would obviously have benefitted the town if it were possible. Therefore, I'm pretty confident that if he truly believed it was possible, he would not have suggested it as scum.

Yeah, but it wasn't possible. It never could have been, really. And it seems bizzare for you and Thesp to take one weak stratagy post and use it as proof that someone is pro-town, dispite the fact that they've done very little this game and almost eveything else they have done looks scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Argh. Why is everyone changing their votes now? I think the town would probably have won the game the game if it had ended two days ago, but there's a lot of wierd stuff going on now.

I earlier said I would shift my votes if neccessary to counter vote shifts from other people. I think it now is. I'm especally becoming suspicious of Sarc at this point. All game, I've been worried that the scum would try to all shift their votes late-game for subtle and wierd reasons, and I don't trust people doing that now. Ecto's recent moves are also quite confusing; his whole "why dosn't everyone just switch their votes right now" thing seems to totally contradict everything he's been saying all game here, where earlier he was talking about "voting blocks" and demanding that everyone promise to never change their votes again.

So I'm going to move Sarc and Ecto up and move Opie down. Hopefully this will help counter some of the recent move shifting other people have made, although I really have no idea if it will or not.

Code: Select all

VanDamien 
Thesp 
Sarcastro 
Skruffs 
Ectomancer 
andersonw 
Oman 
Nocmen 
Max 
opie 
Shy Guy 

[Yosarian2]

Yup. I knew you'd do that. So, Thesp and VanDamien are your scumbuddies, right?

[Yosarian2]

I don't think so, Yos. I doubt Stoofer was lying when he told us the set-up. As far as I know, yours is the only scumgroup.

You continue to defend Van Damien and Thesp, and defend Thesp's defense of Van Damien, and actually go as far as to attack Shy Guy simply because he dared to ask you and Thesp why you're defending him so hard for such bad reasons is one good reason for me to suspect that you are linked to my other two main suspects. Never mind that the ONLY WAY to find out someone's alignment in this game is to look at their list and try to figure out why they're doing what they're doing, you keep acting like he's scum just because he's doing that.

And now, as we're well into the "danger zone" when the lynch might appen at any time, it looks like both you and Thesp are both trying to find excuses to switch your ballots over to what you had always really wanted them to be, but had avoided. Anyone who doubts you, Thesp, or Van Damien is moving up your and Thesp's ballots, pretty consistantly. And I fully expect you and Thesp at some point in the very near future to move each other even lower on your respective lists.

Ideally, I'd like some combination of me, shy guy, and opie in the bottom two. But failing that, at this point I'm willing to do whatever I need to with my vote if necessary just to make sure that none of the three of you are anywhere close to it.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I was pretty suspicious of Skruffs and Sarc. Nocmen had me fooled though. And it turns out I was wrong about Thesp (although, to be honest, I partly just wanted him lynched off early because I didn't like his list).

Bah. Good game, everyone. This is a good example of what happens when pro-town people get too paranoid with "OMG, why haven't the scum done X yet, I must now second guess everything I've thought all game!"