Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

Yosarian2 · Post Post #200 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:28 am

Skruffs wrote:
173: yos: what do YOU think about me? you seem to be skirting an issue in askign thesp about me.

I think you're somewhat suspicious at this point. I also have my doubts about Thesp. When one person I'm somewhat suspicious of says another person I'm somewhat suspicious of looks pro-town, I'm going to ask for an explination.

Skruffs · Post Post #201 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:54 am

thath's cool... I've done the work down to 6 people alive, which would be a loss if we hadn't lynched one scum by then. Lemme post, then i'll do the rest
(Sorry for the HUGE post that is about to happen)

Skruffs · Post Post #202 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:57 am

Day 1 wrote:[col]
andersonw

Max

Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
Ectomancer

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Max

Shy Guy
Yosarian2
[col]
Max

Shy Guy

Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro
[col]
Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer
[col]
Oman

Nocmen

Max

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw
[col]
opie

Ectomancer

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp

Max

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Sarcastro

Max

VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Shy Guy

Max

VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

Ectomancer

shy guy

VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Max

Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Max

Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Round 1, everyone not colored is eliminated, then nocmen and yosarian's votes from oman and van are discarded and they move down to hte next available candidate; oman chose max, van chose Shy Guy.
Round two, opie and ecto are both eliminated, with four players' votes being redistrubted. These are alaso evenly matched, and max gets the lynch. (This is all baasically the same as what Stoofer provided for us, except with fancy graphics.
Max is eliminated, we remove his table and keep going

Day2 wrote: [col]
andersonw

Oman

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
Ectomancer

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Yosarian2
[col]
Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie

Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer
[col]
Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro

opie

Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw
[col]
opie

Ectomancer

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Sarcastro

VanDamien

Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Ectomancer

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Shy Guy

VanDamien

Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Ectomancer

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

Ectomancer

shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Ectomancer

opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy
Nocmen
Sarcastro

Ectomancer

Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

day two round 1: Fight!
ecto*2
vandamien*2
yos*2
opie*2
shy guy*1
Oman*1
nocmen*1

Oman, Shy Guy, and Nocmen are eliminated:
andersonW, who was voting Oman, votes Ectomancer(3)
Nocmen, who was voting Shy Guy, votes opie(3)
Oman, who was voting Nocmen, votes Opie(4)

opie*4
ecto*3
vandamien*2
yos*2
the people who were voting vandamien: Sarc and Shy guy, are pushed to vote for Ecto, and, the people voting yosarian (Thesp and Vandamien) are also pushed to vote for Ecto, who is eliminated.
Interestingly:
Sarc, shy guy, thesp, and vandamien's ballots all put 'dummy candidates' into round one which allowed other players they 'considered scummy' to be eliminated round one, 'forcing' them to vote for players they consider more town later on in the round. Also at this point, Yosarian has 'lost' two of the three players

Day 3 wrote:[col]
andersonw

Oman

VanDamien

Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw

[col]
Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie

Shy Guy

VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw
[col]
opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs

VanDamien

andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
[col]
Sarcastro

VanDamien

Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
Shy Guy

VanDamien

Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

shy guy

VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Oman

VanDamien

Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
VanDamian

Yosarian2

Shy Guy

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

VanDamien

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy

shy guy, nocmen, vandamien, yosarian2 *2
opie, oman*1 <-eliminated
After the first round, yos and anderson are forced to vote Vandamien, , putting him at 4, and with three other players (nocmen/yosarian/shy guy) at 2.
vandamien*(4)
nocmen, shy guy, yosarian2 *(2)
I am not sure if all of these players wound be eliminated, making vandamien the only candidate and thus lynched, or if one of these candidates would be eliminated, if a 'next stage' vote would be done wherein all players voting for the lower 3 would get a 'secondary vote' to see if that breaks the tie, or what. let's assume it's the 'forward voting', which would apply temporary votes as if each player voting for the tied three players was forced to vote for their next player.

Nocmen, voting for Shy Guy, would get a 'secondary' vote on Yosarian2 (2.1)
Oman, voting for Nocmen, would get a secondary vote on Shy Guy (2.1)
Opie, voting for Nocmen, would get a secondary vote on Vandamien (4.1)
Skruffs, voting for Shy Guy, would get a secondary vote for VanDamien(4.2)
Thesp, voting for Yosarian2, would get a secondary vote for Nocmen (2.1)
VanDamien, voting Yosarian2, would get a secondary vote on Shy Guy (2.2)
to balance it, all people voting Vandamien would get 'double weight' on their votes, making VanDamien (4.6).
I could be misconstruing what the 'looking forward' thing is, but the end totals would be
VanDamien - 4.6
Shy Guy - 2.2
Nocmen - 2.1
Yosarian - 2.1
So I would gues Yosarian and Nocmen would be eliminated, and rounds would continue as usual, so that's what i showed on the thing.
VanDamien eliminated 6-4.

Day 4 wrote:[col]
andersonw

Oman

Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro

Oman

Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]
Oman

Nocmen

Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Shy Guy
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw
[col]
opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
Sarcastro

Oman

Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Shy Guy

Oman

Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

shy guy

Nocmen

Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
opie
Oman
Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Oman

Nocmen
Sarcastro
Shy Guy

Day 4:
Oman *3
Shy *2
NocMen *2
Yos2 *1
Opie *1

Yos, Opie knocked out
Oman *4
NocMen *3
Shy *2

Shy knocked out, results in Oman being eliminated, 5-4.
This is kind of fun

Day 5 wrote: [col]
andersonw

Skruffs

Nocmen

Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
Nocmen

Shy Guy

opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]
opie

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
[col]
Sarcastro

Shy Guy

Nocmen

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Nocmen

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

shy guy

Nocmen
andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
opie
Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp

Skruffs

andersonw

Nocmen

Sarcastro
Shy Guy

shy guy 3
Skruffs 1-2
noc men 1-3
sarcastro 1-1
yosarian2 1
opie 1

BOOOOOO!

I did the 'second tier' thing to see who would have the most votes after each tied-for last place person was eliminated. Yosarian and opie got no additional votes after a single elimination, so I eliminated them.

shy guy 3
Skruffs 2
noc men 2
sarcastro 1
sarc eliminated puts Shy Guy voting Nocmen at 3,
Skruffs eliminated after that, which frees Yos and AndersonW to both vote Nocmen, who is eliminated 5-3.
Interestingly, Shy Guy was a shoe-in, I thought, to be lynched by this point, as i believe he has been second or third place every single round. He had 2 more votes than everyone else, but every other player had nocmen higher than him in their lists, so he garnered no more votes.

Day 6 wrote: [col]
andersonw

Skruffs

Opie

Sarcastro

Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
opie

Sarcastro

Skruffs
andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
[col]
Sarcastro

Shy Guy

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Skruffs

shy guy

andersonw
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

Sarcastro

opie
Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw

Sarcastro

Shy Guy

With 7 people alive, it is important to note that this is lylo land if one scum has not been lynched by this point.

skruffs 1
sarc 2
shy guy 2
yosarian2 1
opie 1
opie, yos, and I are dropped...
sarc 5
Shy Guy 2
Amazing. Shy guy survives another round, while sarc, who had not yet been a contender, burns in flames.
At this point, if not one of those players were scum, we'd lose, but based on who's remaining i'm willing to think one or two of them probably were <- opinion

Skruffs · Post Post #203 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 11:43 am

Day 7 wrote: [col]
andersonw

Skruffs

Opie
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
opie

Skruffs

andersonw
Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
[col]
Shy Guy

Thesp

Skruffs
andersonw
Yosarian2
opie
Skruffs

shy guy

andersonw

Thesp

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

opie

Skruffs
Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Shy Guy

Skruffs 2
Thesp 1
shy guy 1
Yosarian21
opie 1

4 way tie, going the next step we get:
Skruffs 2-1
Thesp 1-2
shy guy 1
Yosarian21
opie 1-1
so shy guy and yosarian2 are eliminated. (This doesn't look good for me, admittedly)

ope 2
Skruffs 2
Thesp 2
a three way tie.. intriguing. Taking this 'next step' further, with all six voters, we get:
ope 2-2
Skruffs 2-2
Thesp 2-2
which is another tie.
And then the third one is(this is only additional votes as all parties will not vote for themselves):

ope 2-2-1
Skruffs 2-2-1
Thesp 2-2-1
So i am going to presume that in this situation that i would be lynched because I had the most votes in the first round, even though i only have 1/2 the number needed to win. (Mod can correct me if i am assumign falsely)

Bye Skruffs

Day 8 wrote: [col]
andersonw

Opie

Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
[col]
opie

andersonw

Thesp
Yosarian2
ShyGuy
Shy Guy

Thesp

andersonw

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

andersonw

opie
Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
andersonw
Shy Guy

opie 2
ander 1
thesp 1
yos 1

Three way tie at final five! Whoo!

opie 2
ander 1-2
thesp 1-1
yos 1
Yos is dropped...

opie 2
ander 2
thesp 1
Thesp is dropped....
Leading to an Ander lynch, 3-2.
If two of Thesp, Opie, Yosarian, and Shy Guy are scum, they would win at this point.

Day 9 wrote: [col]
opie

Thesp

Yosarian2
ShyGuy
[col]
Shy Guy

Thesp

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Thesp

Yosarian2

opie

Shy Guy
[col]
Yosarian2

opie

Thesp
Shy Guy

Thesp 2, opie 1, yos 1
Yosarian is dropped, bringing it to
Thesp 2, Opie 2
after that there is a tie, so presumably Thesp is lynched (like I was) with the most votes in round one.

Last Day wrote: [col]
opie

Yosarian2
ShyGuy
Shy Guy

Yosarian2
opie
[col]
Yosarian2

opie
Shy Guy

Finally we get this: A simple, round one majority lynch on Yosarian, with Shy Guy and Opie as the last two standing. this assumes that only one of these three players is scum, of course, otherwise the game wouldn't go this far, one way or the other.

So that's that!
Nobody has changed their list yet, so it's not completely irreverent, but it gives all of you a good feel of how the game works, and most importantly, how people can mistakenly lynch people they think are town simply by trying to vote people that other people aren't voting. It's changed the way *I* think about the game, for sure.

Oman · Post Post #204 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 11:58 am

Wow, that was interesting. I'm going to change my list now:

Code: Select all

Nocmen 
Max 
Shy Guy
Sarcastro 
opie 
Ectomancer 
Skruffs
VanDamien 
Thesp 
Yosarian2 
andersonw

Oman · Post Post #205 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 11:59 am

Code: Select all

Nocmen 
Max 
Shy Guy 
Sarcastro 
opie 
Ectomancer 
Skruffs 
VanDamien 
Thesp 
Yosarian2 
andersonw

Sorry, Sir.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #206 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 12:45 pm

Max wrote: With 7 people alive, it is important to note that this is lylo land if one scum has not been lynched by this point.

Note that this is not quite true:

the rules wrote: [15] The Town wins if all the Mafia are lynched.
[16] The Mafia win if (a) all the Townies are lynched; or (b) only 2 players remain alive, one of whom is Mafia.
[17] The game will not end in any other case (including, for example, if there are 2 Mafia and 2 Townies; or even 2 Mafia and 1 Townie). Even the Mafia in this village are methodical.

Even if mafia make up half the town, they don't automatically win.

andersonw · Post Post #207 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 3:29 pm

Skruffs, about the tiebreakers, the third tiebreaker is:

[14] If all candidates not eliminated have the same number of votes, I will eliminate the player with the fewest votes in the previous round.

So it would not be exactly like you stated. I think that means in day 7, thesp would have been eliminated since he had the fewest votes in day 6. Then that would add another vote to both you and opie though, and surprise, you two both would have the same number of votes in day 6. Which means I have no idea what would happen next.
Sorry if I'm being confusing, I'm just about to go to sleep since the American Math Contest is tomorrow.

Oh yeah, and my basic reasons for my list were that I just tried to see who looked like they were scumhunting the most and who I got vibes from. If anyone wants to ask for clarification, I can provide a few examples of posts.

*goes to sleep*

Skruffs · Post Post #208 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 3:56 pm

good point, yosarian - I had not taken into accoutn that the scum could bus their buddies even past lylo

No that's fine, Anderson, I kind of just winged the parts I didn't have anything to go on - the process I sued fwas from teh wikipedia entry for "Instant Scratch Off" or whatnot for this kind of voting proceedures.

Mr Stoofer · Post Post #209 (ISO) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 10:54 pm

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

NOTE 1: Day 0 will end between

Monday 3rd March

and

Friday 14th March

.

NOTE 2: Rule [23] is perhaps the most important rule in this game. Please go back and read it now.

Nocmen · Post Post #210 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:14 am

*Hugs Stoofer*...and thats a very interesting summary, there, Skruffs, of the game and how it will get played out.

Now I pose a question to those who are at the final three, because I am not sure whether I am comfortable or not with my current ballot. Opie, ShyGuy, and Yos: Why should I think you are town?

Mr Stoofer · Post Post #211 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:48 am

I think people are getting the hang of the IRV system. I have put a flow-chart in the opening post, which I found in Wikipedia's entry on IRV.

Since there has been a discussion of the Tiebreaker rules, I will remind you of this:

Mr Stoofer wrote:
Tiebreaker rules

[12] STV/IRV sometimes requires ties to be resolved. I'll follow the tiebreaker rules below, but it may happen that I need to devise further tiebreaker rules. In that case I will devise an ad hoc rule. I doubt that this will be necessary.
[13] If there is a tie for the candidate with the fewest votes (after I have eliminated all players with no votes), I will eliminate all those with the fewest votes -- UNLESS that would leave just one candidate remaining. In the latter case, I will eliminate the candidate with the fewest votes in the previous round.
[14] If all candidates not eliminated have the same number of votes, I will eliminate the player with the fewest votes in the previous round.

These rules were inspired by the Wikipedia discussion of ties:

Wikipedia wrote:
Handling ties

Exact ties can happen in any election; although the odds remain very low when many votes are cast, the multiple rounds of counting used in IRV create more opportunities for a tie than there are in some other voting systems. If there is a tie for last place in the elimination process, various rules can be used to break it:
If the total of all the combined votes of any grouping of the candidates with the fewest votes is fewer than the votes cast for the next weakest candidate, then all those bottom tier candidates can be eliminated simultaneously.

One candidate, from among those tied, is eliminated at random (e.g. by a coin toss).

In Australia the candidate, from among those tied, with the fewest votes in the previous round is eliminated. If there is still a tie those counting votes then look back to the next most recent round and then, if necessary, to further progressively earlier rounds until one candidate can be eliminated.

In Irish presidential elections, the candidate, from among those tied, with fewest first choices is eliminated. If this cannot break the tie, ballot-counters look forwards, first to find the tied candidate with fewest votes in the second round and then, if necessary, to the third, fourth and subsequent rounds.

In some private elections the method is to 'conditionally eliminate' candidates from the tie and recount to see if either (or any) can survive. Usually the full set will become eliminated in any order.

As you can see, I am using a form of rule 3. If I have to adopt an ad hoc rule (see Stoofer's Rule [12]) I will probably use some form of Wikipedia's rules 4 and 5. I will not use rule 2 unless there is no other way to decide the election.

Max · Post Post #212 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:54 am

Sarcastro ^moving up to top (buddying up claimed only to be doing that till changing vote not yet done so)
Ectomancer ^Moving higher up see sarc
Shy Guy VMoving down not doing much anti town but is same as sarc so may be buddying with him (also interesting how he is one of the most accused players day 1 yet not lynched, EVER!)
Yosarian2 ^see shy
Oman <keeping same not doing much bad but not much good either
VanDamien < Not sure bout him
opie ^ Bumped off thesp see the voting patterns
andersonw < see VD
Skruffs ^did the vote thing and post analysis so yeah good but still have a few reservations
Thesp Vmoving down the vote analysing helped he is bumped off by opie and shy so moving down
Nocmen V Bottom player happy at the moment with him

Code: Select all

Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
opie
andersonw
Skruffs
Thesp
Nocmen

Skruffs · Post Post #213 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:44 am

Max, you shouldn't bump me up as more likely town because I did the 'final three' break down; It helps everyone, town AND scum. It's just as likely that I was show my scum buddies how to set traps as I was showing town how to avoid them, and my 'post analysis' things were more just me showing i was catching up with the game as anything else.

Nocmen took the summary (flawed as it is) in a different light; putting pressure on the final three players.

I personally think it's interesting that Shy GUy and Yosarian are in the 'final two' or SIX of the 11 possible ballots each can show up in, TOGETHER, and each shows up in two additional 'bottom two' ballots, seperately, as well, inferring that 10 of the 12 players believe that yosarian and/or shy guy is town.

I will probably be keeping opie towards the bottom of my own list for the rest of the day; I'm not too happy with Shy guy making it to final three when he's trying to force everyone in the game to adopt a set plan of final three in the first place.

Max · Post Post #214 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:31 am

Shy guy has the second highest votes in the first round we need to make sure that our votes and lynches reflect that.

Ectomancer · Post Post #215 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:36 am

Oh the manipulators.

The only town thing to do is leave this exactly as it is. Let it run. The only people who know what we need to do are scum. Any manipulation to move people in and out, is just that, manipulation.

Heed these words.

Max · Post Post #216 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:39 am

And you think that everyone

needs

to pledge to someone

Ectomancer · Post Post #217 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:08 am

Max wrote:And you think that everyone
needs
to pledge to someone

No, I decided against that and stated that everyone should derive their own method of arriving at a ballot, including drawing names from a hat if necessary.

Bad Max.

Nocmen · Post Post #218 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 9:09 am

Ecto, how do we know that you aren't saying that just because you know those near the bottom are scum?

Sarcastro · Post Post #219 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:18 am

Okay, first of all, Max, your accusation of "buddying up" is utterly ridiculous. What, did you think I was planning on not posting anything until the deadline? Yeah, that'd definitely be a great strategy. I thought it would be obvious that I was simply delayed.

Ectomancer needs to be lynched first. Even if he's not scum, he is acting in an extremely dangerous fashion and, if Yos is scum, could hand the game to him if left alone.

Ecto, your logic is ridiculous. Yes, it is more likely that Yos is town than scum. But you're looking at this in an incredibly naive way. Let me put it this way: would you bet $10 with a 75% chance return of $11 and a 25% chance return of 0%? It would be absolutely idiotic to, but that's basically what you're proposing.

Yes, if Yos is town and also reasonably correct with his suspicions, you'll be helping the town. But if he's scum, you're giving the scum another ballot, which is a

huge

advantage.

If you really are town, I don't understand why you would rather bet on a 75% chance for a small reward (yes, I know it's not 75% if you're pro-town, but that doesn't matter), or on the

100% chance

that you are town. Seriously, your logic is absolutely ridiculous - all you're doing is throwing out a meaningless percentage.

The fact that you're sticking to your decision to trust Yos is rather disturbing, too. Thesp has pointed out why it can't be considered "random" at all. Funnily enough, if you'd have made the argument that Yos is more deserving of support because if he is town, he's more likely to have good suspicions, I might not feel so strongly about it, but you've made it clear that that's not the case.

So yeah, Ecto has to be lynched. He's either scum or a dangerously foolish townie.

Again, I still don't like this idea that Yos is pro-town. Nobody has given

any

convincing reason, and it seems like the "good player equals town" fallacy. In addition, I've actually found Yos a bit borderline - his actual analysis of players has been fairly lacking, and while his strategic and tactical arguments are certainly helpful, they're a lot easier for scum to fake.

Right now, I'd say that Skruffs, ShyGuy, Opie and VanDamien are the most pro-town, with perhaps Thesp rounding out the bottom of my list. VanDamien is there pretty much entirely for his "game-breaking" idea, which seemed rather genuine, while most of the rest just have a sort of "genuine air" to their posts.

Yosarian is near the top of my list, too, along with Nocmen (who's looking better recently, but who really seemed scummy at the beginning of the game). Max is up there, too, for several odd things he's said, including the most recent suggestion that we all have to change our votes to lynch Shy Guy because he's near the top of several lists. Anderson and Oman are around the middle of the road, because I haven't gotten much of a read on them at all.

I'm not going to post my list just yet, because I want to make sure I use it in such a way that it actually helps get my preferences lynched. Unfortunately, due to the nature of this STV system, voting can have some rather unpredictable results. I realise this might sound like manipulation, but I'll gladly explain any discrepancies, should they arise, and I would in fact encourage everyone to vote this way, rather than just listing preferences.

I will, however, give you my preliminary list, just so you know where I'm at right now. I might still re-evaluate this (especially Thesp, who seems somewhat pro-town but who I'm not sure I trust my read on).

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
Andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
Opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

Yosarian2 · Post Post #220 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:43 am

Sarc: Do you really think it's likely that me and ecto are scum together?

I mean, seriously; if ecto was my scum buddy, I can't imagine him making a huge hairy deal out of "pledging" his vote to me or whatever it was he did there. If he really wanted to do that, he could have just said "I agree with Yosarian" or something and posted a similar ballot, and it wouldn't have been nearly as conspicious or attention grabbing.

Personally, while it's WIFOM, I don't really see ecto as scum playing it this way.

Sarcastro · Post Post #221 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:43 am

No, I'd agree that you and Ecto are fairly unlikely to be scum together. However, I'm not just advocating Ecto's lynch because I think he's scum, but also because if he is not scum, he's dangerous to the town.

This is also a good place to note that unfortunately, there's no way for me to revise my opinion of you after lynching Ecto, as there would be in most games. So even if I knew that you and Ecto absolutely could not be scum together, if I felt that there was still a strong chance that one of you is scum, I would still have to put you both near the top, even knowing that I was lynching a townie.

In addition, I admit that you probably aren't the second most scummy person in the game. But you do seem slightly scummy to me, and I really want to make sure that you don't end up in the last few players, especially because it seems like a lot of people want you to be for no good reason. This could be a bit of a scum gambit (everyone try to get Yos into the final two), but it's more likely just "Yos is a good, helpful player, so he must be town". That mindset can still be dangerous, though, if you are scum. Again, I feel a bit like I'm just picking on you because you're a good player, but I just can't see myself being confident that you're pro-town, even if I didn't already find you a bit scummy.

Ectomancer · Post Post #222 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 4:40 pm

If he's not scum, he;s dangerous to the town. LOL

Max and Sarcastro are our scum BTW.

Ectomancer · Post Post #223 (ISO) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 4:47 pm

Nocmen wrote:Ecto, how do we know that you aren't saying that just because you know those near the bottom are scum?

Figure it out. I have faith that you can.

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

VanDamien · Post Post #224 (ISO) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:56 am

Ectomancer wrote:
Nocmen wrote:Ecto, how do we know that you aren't saying that just because you know those near the bottom are scum?
Figure it out. I have faith that you can.

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their
buddies
. That also means their buddies cant change
their
ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

Your "proposal" does not bind scum, if they are already going to win by the current ballot. But seriously, move me to your top for changing my list.

On another note, more changes (potentially) coming in the next day or two.

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs