Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Yosarian2]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

[Ectomancer]

Hmm, maybe a misconception is there that I didn't realize. Yosarian doesnt have my pledge

forever

, just today (unless I give it back again)

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy 

[Yosarian2]

What do you mean just today, ecto? There only is today in this game. The ballots we have when we get to deadline will determine if the town wins or the town loses.

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[Yosarian2]

Oh, and by the way, Ecto, you can't quite copy and paste there, since your list has to have my name on it somewhere and you don't put your own name on to your own list.

[Ectomancer]

Ahhh, I see. I missed a crucial element:

(except that the thread will remain locked)

That is fine actually. My method of determining how best to have a townie control the outcome is perfectly valid and I trust your judgement. Your breakdown made sense to me, though I felt a scummy vibe from Sarcastro.

Ballot is posted, on with the show

[andersonw]

@Andersonw - No, its not moot because not just any of us was listed as the most townie, only one of us was. That person was chosen at random, not in a manner manipulatable by us, the players. Probability states that Yosarian2 is more likely to be town. The point about Day 0 is that nothing has happened. After night new information is gained. We submit new ballots every day. Did you think we only submit one ballot for the entire game?

As I think you have learned already, we do not submit new ballots every day and there is no night.
About your probability, you say that a randomly chosen person is likely to be town. So what if I was randomly chosen, then would you pledge me because there's a greater chance that I am town?

In regard to my second post, after thinking about it, I do think the point scale thing is a better idea than a general consensus, for the reason that if we make one mistake, we lose.

Also, (this is completely offtopic) somehow, my title changed to goon. How did that happen?

[springlullaby]

Ok, this game is throwing me off completely. I misunderstood the premises and thought that we had a ballot everyday. Now, I haven't taken a maths class in ages and always sucked at it anyway so I'm hopeless at evaluating the various system people are coming up with (in all honesty I don't even really want to make the effort). Given this, I think the wise thing for me to do is to drop out of the game now and ask for replacement: whether I be town or mafia I will blow the game for my faction.

I apologize to the mod and to the other players for the inconvenience, I still think this setup is interesting and will watch the proceeding, but I really think a more apt player will enjoy this game more (or a least understand it ).

Mod: replacement please.

Again, sorry. And have fun everyone

[springlullaby]

Eeeek, I just realized that sending this request by PM would have been better.

Sorry, sorry, sorry

Please mod delete my post

[Yosarian2]

You know, it's ok to request a replacement in the thread.

Anyway, don't worry too much about the math. Just figure out who you think is most scummy and who is least scummy, and it should work out.

[Oman]

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

[Nocmen]

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

That is exactly how I feel.

Also, ecto, are you lazy?

[VanDamien]

No matter how I run it, the odds don't improve above purely random. And

that's

assuming that if everyone starts the game with one vote, the lynch is random, and the tiebreaking rules are not clear on that at this point.

The odds I came up with are at their best if everyone votes alphabetically down from their spot, wrapping around as necessary, and the scum are not in order in such a list. But it's a crap shoot, and the first (presumably) random lynch then determines the winner. So, ugh.

Code: Select all

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
springlullaby
 

[Yosarian2]

VanDamien: Is there some reason you think I'm the most suspicious person in the game? Or, perhaps, did you put your list upside down by mistake?

[VanDamien]

Yes, the interactions between yours, Ectomancer's, Nocmen's, and Max's lists make me nervous, especially since two of those lists were posted very early in the game.

Also, is there a reason both you and Ectomancer left Oman off of your lists?

[Yosarian2]

Huh, I didn't mean to leave Omen off my list; I had him in my analysis, if you look back.

Code: Select all

[quote="Yosarian2"][code]opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

As for "the interactions", well, I can't help that. Attacking me because Max randomally put me at the bottom of his list in post 1 of the game is kind of silly; do you really think scum partners would be that obveous?

I seem to get this all the time in this kind of games, it's almost predictable; first everyone thinks I'm protown, then I get people who start to get paranoid about me because other people think I'm pro-town. Same thing happened in both reverse mafia and reverse mafia vanillia.

Anyway, it's quite bizzare that your list appears to be basically the exact opposite of my list, with everyone in very nearly reversed order, which was why I asked if you did it that way on purpose. Could you explain why you have people who haven't said anything yet all game as your "most pro-town people" on your list? The key part of the lists is who everyone thinks is most pro-town, and your two most pro-town people are lurkers, which seems bizzare to me. Care to clarify? Why do you think those should be the last two people left alive?

[Yosarian2]

Gob blang it, I stink at these code tags.

Code: Select all

opie 
VanDamien 
Thesp 
springlullaby 
andersonw 
oman 
Nocmen 
Sarcastro 
Max 
Ectomancer 
Shy Guy 

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy 
Yosarian2

@Nocmen - I did my analysis of events, and my vote is more likely to be supporting a townie. Because we both have the same ballot, unless scum team up to counter it, town is also more likely to have the greatest influence over the end result. How is your alphabetical ballot less lazy?

[Shy Guy]

Ecto, roll dice and I'll accept your premise of random selection. Yosarian2 is being selected by choice. Also, what guarantee have we that Yosarian2 picks wisely? The pledging system has problems.

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

I am very conflicted on Yosarian2 and Ectomancer right now -- I want to think I was right that Ectomancer is town, and Yosarian2 is appearing very townish recently... but I have the odd suspicion I might be getting burned. Scum definitely would want to have 3 identical ballots -- and pledging seems a great way to achieve that.

Oman, I find a stark contrast:

I put yos2 at the bottom because I believe him to be town.

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

Could you explain?

VanDamien appears to be trying to be helpful while not being so. His plan to "guarantee a win" didn't amount to anything at all, and his voting list seems to be a rough ranking of most active posters to least.

springlullaby's post seems very, very much like it is coming from a townie.

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I'd like to remind everyone we only have a couple of weeks to finish this game.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
springlullaby

Whew. Quite a long post.

[Oman]

Yeah, Shy Guy. When everyone thinks he's town, it makes me think he's not so town.

[Ectomancer]

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

Actually, I find the exact reverse of your conclusion. I would believe that a new person would be keen to reading over everything in a game. I almost never do anymore, unless something like a deadline comes up, then I'll go see what rules that mod is using. Otherwise, I assume its standard and start playing.

[Nocmen]

Yes, the interactions between yours, Ectomancer's, Nocmen's, and Max's lists make me nervous, especially since two of those lists were posted very early in the game.

Also, is there a reason both you and Ectomancer left Oman off of your lists?

Yes, but if you notice, my list was alphabetical, which as I said before which is why he is at the bottom.

Don't worry though, I expect to make a new list in the next days.

[Ectomancer]

Yeah, Shy Guy. When everyone thinks he's town, it makes me think he's not so town.

Irrefutable logic, I must say.

[Mr Stoofer]

Skruffs replaces springlullaby