Mini 523 - Game Over!

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Vote Count

Thanatos (1) - Nudude

Not Voting (6) - Dark_Lady_Shaiann, Thanatos, liamcool, Infinitive, Gorgon, charter

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

I'm not really all to into the whole sacrificing thing right now. It's like your betting the whole game just to prove a point.......

[Nudude]

Did you even read my last post?

In it I explained why it's more risky trusting that Thanatos is a vig.

[Thanatos]

By all means, think about it for yourself and take your time, no rush.

It's impossible to be 100% certain wether or not someone is scum untill they go to the noose, but comparing the stretches of thinking required to justify Thanatos is an Vig, versus how the pieces fit together if Thanatos is an SK, I feel certain he the SK.

I also think of the consequences of being wrong if he is an SK. There are seven players, I'd say 4 townies and 3 scum (2 mafia + 1 SK). Now if we lynch a townie, and Thanatos is an SK, we could lose 3 townies in one day/night, making 1 townie and 3 scum, meaning the the town will almost certainly lose, as the mafia will kill Thanatos, and even if Thanatos picks a mafia to kill, that leaves 1 townie and 1 mafia, which means town lose.

No matter how I look at it, I don't trust Thanatos enough to put the game in his hands. If we lynch Thanatos, we know for a fact only one townie will die tonight, and if turns out we were wrong and he is a vig, you'll have confirmed me as scum (which I'm not!) and will know who to lynch.

The question is, do you trust Thanatos enough to risk only having one townie tomorrow?

There's a major problem with what your saying. If I'm scum, then the second kill comes from someone else, you don't leave the game in my hands at all. If I'm an SK, then first and formost, you need to understand that in Scum versus town for the endgame, I'm counted as a townie. That's how situations such as a single scum, SK, and Townie can end up being on the last day.

So let's recalculate. there are 2 mafia, 4 townies, and a vig or SK who is counted as a townie for deciding endgame. We mislynch today, mafia kill tonight, and I miss-kill..there are 2 mafia, and 2 townies. We lose the game. Doesn't matter who I am, SK, or Vig. In other words...if we mislynch, I can't kill tonight, without risking endgame death. Besides, if we miss the mafia roleblocker (and I'm assuming it's a mafia roleblocker, since a town one wouldn't block the role of a guy who was about to claim) I won't be able to use my power anyway, and will likely die tonight.

So, to sum up..letting me live does not put your life into my hands as an Sk or vig.

Now, on to the more pressing issue of your sacrifice play, your logic here is completely insane! We don't confirm a damn thing. You could damn well just be an idiot who doesn't think before he speaks, instead of scum. I don't like the way you're playing this game, but if they kill me, and you're town, we lose the game if we follow your plan. What townie would present himself as a scum based on even the strongest of hunches?

I don't know. Maybe you're a scum who's very desperate to get rid of me, and wants to use the apparent safeguard to get rid of me, in the hope that your buddy will wipe everyone else out in the mean time. Maybe you're being an irrational fool. But know this. trusting me is no more risky than anyone else in the game, killing me can prove potentially detrimental to our power as the town, and sacrificing yourself is at best a vig for scum trade, and at worse, town collective suicide. That's just fact.

[Nudude]

There's a few people that haven't posted in a few days.

I've presented my theories and ideas, and explained why. Some people have said they dis - agree, but don't present any alternative theories either.

If you don't agree with me, fine, but at least do something about it! Post some thoughts you have, alternative theories, do some investigating. It's like everyone says "I'm not sure, I want to think about this" but then does nothing about it!

Come up with some ideas and evidence supporting your case. It frustrating for me because I've done my research and have concluded Thanatos is scum, but everyone else is just waiting for some magical piece of evidence to fall in our laps.

Give me something to change my mind, or vote for Thanatos and knock another scum out of the game.

Do something, anything!

[Nudude]

I didn't know an SK is counted as town in an end game situation. Can someone else confirm this?

[Infinitive]

You want my thoughts on this whole mess? Okay, but I'll warn you- they're pretty easy to summarize. I'll preface this by reminding people of my record on Thanatos from yesterday- I'm not exactly thrilled about him.

Thanatos argues for careful consideration before we act. Nudude is pushing very, very hard for a Thanatos lynch, and goes so far as to put himself on the line. More, he wants the lynch immediately.

Frankly, this feels like a power play. Quite possibly an attempt to remove what might be the last town power role. I don't like it one bit. Nudude, do you have anything else to back up your contentions regarding Than, or have you stated your entire case? I ask because I find your argument to be no more convincing than the argument I was levying against Than yesterday. The difference is that, of late, you have been acting very scummy, as has been noted by DLS (who has been pretty much cleared by the DS lynch).

And where the hell is Liam, anyway? I haven't heard from him for ages. Gorgon too.

Anyway, here's conjecture on who's left:
Than: Vig or SK. Certainly a power role.
DLS: Townie.
Charter/replacement guy: Townie
Me: Townie
Gorgon: Unknown. See Liam.
Liamcool: Godfather. Alternately, this could be Gorgon, but Liam has been much scummier overall.
Nudude: Mafia Roleblocker.

If this is the spread, then Nudude is safe in offering himself up after a Than lynch- with no town power roles left, he's nothing more than a generic scum. After that, we're sitting in lynch or lose with pretty well no idea who's scum. That's a very good position for scum to be in in endgame.

Part B is that it'd be monumentally stupid for town to vote for himself in lynch or lose. At 5 people, the two remaining scum could just hammer him and win the game. Either Nudude is braindead, which I don't believe, or he's scum. Period.

FOS: Nudude.

[Nudude]

If you read my posts, I've been saying I am convinced that Thanatos is an SK, and presented my case, and that if people didn't agree with that, to do their own investigating.

Can you explain why he killed someone who was in the game a little over 24 hours after they entered the game, while ignoring a slew of suspicious characters?

Can you explain how he knew he'd been roled - blocked? My understanding is that most of the time you don't told why your attempt fails. I could be a GF, there could be a back - up doc, there could be many reasons, but he was sure he'd been role - blocked....how?

Can you explain why you said that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation, when this thread:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +killer%2A

Would seem to indicate that is false? The only true way to know a win condition is by reading your role PM, but it's clear that a SK is not consdiered a townie in an end game situation....why mis - represent the facts?

Can you explain why you finished off DS yesterday before he had a chance to say anything, a stark contrast to today where your calling for calm, rational consideration. I agree that people should take their time and analyse the info.....so why did you yourself rush to the lynch yesterday? Because you were sure he was scum? How is me being sure your scum any different, except that I'm calling for people to prove me wrong, not neccesarily agree with me and rush to the lynch?

In summary,

1. His best guess D1 was a guy with four posts and who had replaced into the game a little over 24 hours before the lynch, despite there being more suspicious characters.

2. He cannot possibly have known he was role - blocked.

3. He claimed that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation. This is false, unless a role PM says otherwise.

4. He killed DS before he had a chance to open his mouth. It turned out he was scum, but I'd hardly call that a carefully considered act. I feel if your going to ask for carefully considered acts, then you should also carefully consider how you act, but twice this game you've been quite brash with your decisions.

Just so were clear, I have no problem with everyone taking their time to look things over. I'm just saying I'm pretty damned sure he is scum, and I'm presenting my case. I encourage everyone to present their own.

[Thanatos]

I doubt he can, but I will.

If you read my posts, I've been saying I am convinced that Thanatos is an SK, and presented my case, and that if people didn't agree with that, to do their own investigating.

Can you explain why he killed someone who was in the game a little over 24 hours after they entered the game, while ignoring a slew of suspicious characters?

I already explained this. I wasn't sure who to kill, so I made a stupid choice and killed a townie who appeared harmless, but had done something I had felt was scummy right before night, putting him at L-1. I didn't think we had anything to lose, so I killed him. It was rash, I know.

Can you explain how he knew he'd been roled - blocked? My understanding is that most of the time you don't told why your attempt fails. I could be a GF, there could be a back - up doc, there could be many reasons, but he was sure he'd been role - blocked....how?

I highly doubt there is a nurse in a 12 person Mini, and as far as I know, the GF isn't NK immune. Besides that, I admitted to being a power role just before night, which would mean that a mafia role blocker would block me regardless. A RB is a far smaller coincidence than a Nurse protecting you or you being NK Immune, which you aren't admitting to anyways.

Can you explain why you said that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation, when this thread:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +killer%2A

Would seem to indicate that is false? The only true way to know a win condition is by reading your role PM, but it's clear that a SK is not consdiered a townie in an end game situation....why mis - represent the facts?

My dear Nudude, you just proved me correct. You see, this situation could NOT occur unless a SK was considered as town for endgame. What I mean by endgame is the point where either all anti-town roles are eliminated (which, in this case, an SK is treated as diffrent from scum or townn) or when the scum outnumber the town, which is the situation you're talking about. Now, if there are 1 scum, 1 town, and 1 SK, and the SK is treated as scum, the town loses. However, your link PROVES that this is not the case. It's a difficult situation for the townie remaining, but it is not an automatic loss. In fact, we've learned the way around it from that link. No lynch.

Can you explain why you finished off DS yesterday before he had a chance to say anything, a stark contrast to today where your calling for calm, rational consideration. I agree that people should take their time and analyse the info.....so why did you yourself rush to the lynch yesterday? Because you were sure he was scum? How is me being sure your scum any different, except that I'm calling for people to prove me wrong, not neccesarily agree with me and rush to the lynch?

1. I dislike DS' style of playing, and thought he was scummy for a long time.

2. that day had lasted for months. This one is barely a week old.

3. I was losing intrest in playing Mafia, and wanted something to spice it up a bit. Moving along in the day was the best bet.

In summary,

1. His best guess D1 was a guy with four posts and who had replaced into the game a little over 24 hours before the lynch, despite there being more suspicious characters.

I had no reasonable suspicions, except for Liam, which I already explained, and wanted to explore a safe option. I chose him SPECIFICLY for the reasons you listed

2. He cannot possibly have known he was role - blocked.

Know for sure and being a logical conclusion are two diffrent things

3. He claimed that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation. This is false, unless a role PM says otherwise.

I just proved it true. Well, you did.

4. He killed DS before he had a chance to open his mouth. It turned out he was scum, but I'd hardly call that a carefully considered act. I feel if your going to ask for carefully considered acts, then you should also carefully consider how you act, but twice this game you've been quite brash with your decisions.

It wasn't carefully considered, but it was logical for my thinking, and I'm not exactly unhappy with the choice

Just so were clear, I have no problem with everyone taking their time to look things over. I'm just saying I'm pretty damned sure he is scum, and I'm presenting my case. I encourage everyone to present their own.

There. That should prove to most reasonable people the lack of logic or reasoning in your argument. And I noticed you avoided talking about your sacrifice play. Can't you admit you were wrong?[/b]

[Nudude]

I have to admit, you make some good points. It doesn't make alot of sense if your a SK. In fact, the one theory I came up with is that if you are an SK, it's in your best interests to kill scum tonight if we lynch a townie, in which case we should let you live one more night at the very least just in case we get it wrong today.

The thing is I'm certain your scum, well as certain as anyone can be who isn't psychic. There are some things in your story that just don't add up, which I've pointed out. Everyone will have to draw their own conclusions from that.

Here are a couple of alternatives I have:

1. Scum = 1xGF 1xRB 1xOne shot assassin.

This is a powerful mafia group, but there would probably have to be another pro - town power role to offset this. Thanatos could be the one - shot assasin, say he's a blocked vig, and if the role blocker gets lynched it will lend alot of weight to his claim.


2. Scum = 1xGF 1xGoon 1xRB.

A little less powerful, but another pro - town role would probably be justified in this setup.


Basically, your either a vig, or your scum and there's another pro - town role out there keeping his head down.

I can't shake the feeling your scum, just the question is what type of scum. I feel I've made some good points, but it's impossible to be conclusive untill a lynch.

I'd like to hear any other ideas people have, see what we can come up with between us.

[Thanatos]

Well, we know for a fact the first proposed scum group is wrong. DS was a goon. And, if you believe me that I was role blocked, then the second situation you presented seems to be the most likely. And, as you said, another pro-town role would be justified in this setup.

But no. We can't prove anything yet. I'm still not sure what I think about you. You havn't been acting as either scum or town as far as I can see...it's almost like you want to get lynched, but I doubt we have a miller. Can you PLEASE comment on your sacrifice plan?

[Nudude]

Well, simply put I'm so sure your not a vig I'm betting my life on it, and I want to show everyone I'm not scum trying to push some agenda by making myself accountable for my accusation.

I know it's a bit of WIFOM, but it just seems if there was a role blocker, they would have blocked VL instead of killing him. Imagine the confusion it would have made when VL, a person we were suspicious of from day one, claimed to get an innocent result on liamcool, another suspicious person, and then said "Sorry, I got roleblocked last night". We would have suspected and almost certainly lynched one of them.

As I said, it's WIFOM, and so really doesn't prove anything. Everyone has to decide for themselves what they believe, but I don't believe your a vig.

[Thanatos]

Even though if you're a townie who's wrong, you're not just betting your life on it. Your betting the game.

[liamcool]

Actually, if he's wrong, and you are a vig, and you don't kill tonight, we have another day for lynch (unless we have a 4 scum mafia, which is highly unlikely at best).

Two notes

1) Than, if I was your most suspicious person on D1, why didn't you kill me? (I may have asked this earlier, if I did, just redirect me, slap me around the head and call me an idiot)

2) Infinitive, the chance of me being a godfather is 1/7 (roughly 14% if my maths is correct). The odds are greatly stacked against me being godfather, if there even is one.

[Nudude]

Well so far you've managed to target two townies for your NK's. I wonder if you asked yourself that same question.

[Nudude]

Or for that matter, when you hammered DS because the day had gone too long?

[Infinitive]

Infinitive, the chance of me being a godfather is 1/7 (roughly 14% if my maths is correct). The odds are greatly stacked against me being godfather, if there even is one.

Okay, I'm going to respond to this, and point out a few things. First of all, if I'm looking to figure out scum players in general, I can eliminate myself, as I know that I'm town. I know that that's not much help to you guys, but it's true, and it helps to get the ball rolling. Next, I'm going to throw DLS out, on account of the DS lynch. I just can't bring myself to believe that those two were faking all of the acrimony between them. That leaves me with this list:

Charter
Liamcool
Thanatos
Nudude
Gorgon

Now, I've stated my feelings regarding Charter repeatedly, but I'll do so one more time; with the exception of his recent absence, he was the single most productive player for the town. Look at his posts. If I have to choose one person based on play history and playing characteristics that's town, I choose Charter. Simply put, he's been more helpful than anyone else.

This leaves me with 4 players left, and we all expect that there are 2 scum on that list. 50/50 shot for any of those four.

Thanatos has just roleclaimed, and has claimed Vig. Unless Charter or Gorgon stand up and counterclaim, I believe him; only if Charter was the counterclaimant would I have an inclination. Therefore, until and unless there's a counterclaim, Thanatos is off the list. That leaves 3.

Nudude just posted some thoughts on possible scum team makeups Since DS came up goon, I'd bet heavily on the second option. The only other option for a scum team build would be GF+Goon+One-shot Assassin, which would be a very beefy spread for a 12-person mini. If that were the case, I'd expect a nurse on town side or something to balance it out; if we HAD that, the nurse would have certainly protected VL last night in light of his claim. It being the case that he was killed, we can eliminate that possibility, which brings us back to this:

GF+Goon+Roleblocker; the standard 12-person mini spread.

Okay, so back to my analysis; we're down, for the moment, to 3 possibilities for scum; a 66.6 (repetant) chance of any of the three to be scum:
Gorgon
Liamcool
Nudude

Now, Nudude has been recently acting very scummy, and I've already posted my conjecture as to why I suspect he's the mafia roleblocker; removing the Vig would remove his ability to affect things significantly, and the scum team has a better chance at winning with a Godfather, against whom we have little case. That means that either Gorgon or Liamcool are the Godfather. Liamcool has been investigated, and came up clean; unfortunately, that doesn't actually mean anything if he's the GF. Both Gorgon and Liam have been lurking significantly of late; however, if I had to bet now, I'd bet on Liam. We had a big case against him as scum early on day 2, influenced heavily by DT. That derailed as a result of VL's investigation, but I'd like to bring it back to life now, of people don't mind.

However, Gorgon, I want to hear from you. You've been very quiet of late, and I want to hear your thoughts on the situation we're now in.

[Nudude]

Your reasoning is "Unless someone counter claims, Thanatos must be a vig". Bear in mind if Thanatos were an SK or some mafia role that get's a one shot kill, we wouldn't get a counter claim in that instance either.

I do agree with your reasoning on DLS however. It does some a little extreme to be a distancing act.

While I don't question charter has made contributions, to say he has been the MVP of the game is a bit of a stretch. I wonder if charter himself feel this way.

While it's WIFOM, I have explained why I don't feel there is a role blocker. To me, it would have created more confusion to have had VL blocked.

Would you care to explain how I've been acting scummy? I think Thanatos's claim is false, so I present my ideas and evidence, and encourage people to discuss it. Would you prefer me keeping my theories and evidence to myself? How does that help the town?

FOS: Infinitive

[Thanatos]

It doesn't matter if they Could have done that. If I was scum, I know I wouldn't have done that, and, I suspect it never occured to them that roleblocking the cop would be a better idea than killing him, especially when no one had counterclaimed, when I believe everyone was calling for a role blocker. I don't know about everyone else, but I would have believed the role blocker claim. I've already given you reasons for why a roleblocker is more likely than a one shot assassin, nurse, or what have you. That fact hat you continue to hold to these ideas is...odd.

[Infinitive]

Well, Nudude, as far as I'm concerned, it doesn't actually matter whether Thanatos is SK or Vig- I'd bet everything I've got on the fact that he's going to die tonight.

Scum's first priority is to find and kill the Cop and the Doc- those two are the roles that most negatively impact the scum MO, which is getting the town to mislynch and then shooting someone in the night; the cop for obvious reasons, and the Doc because it retards the scum's ability to NK.

The serial killer/vig is always of secondary concern because they can hit town just as easily as they can hit scum. However, the mafia wants to remove all power roles other than themselves as best they can. Presented with a known cop and someone else about to make a claim, the smart move for scum is to kill the cop and roleblock the other guy, then kill him the night following.

Here's the important part- regardless of whether Than's SK or Vig, it's in his best interest to kill scum, because they're the only other killing role out there. On the flipside, it's in the scum's best interest (once the cop and doc are dead) to kill any remaining power roles, because it gives them a greater degree of control over the game. Whether Thanatos is SK or Vig, there's no other NK that makes sense. If Than is NOT NK'd tonight, the situation is changed somewhat, but we'll deal with that when/if we get to it.

In regards to the possible one-shot assassin role, I offer a counterpoint- I was the one who first proposed that idea as possible, and I don't buy it because of the lack of a corresponding town power role. The scum get a HUGE advantage when they get more than 1 NK per night, even if it's only a one-shot kill.

In regards to charter, who would you propose has been the most helpful member of the town, Nudude? I can't really think of anyone as of now that can compete with his record.

And finally, in regards to your scumminess, it's not so much WHAT you're doing as HOW you're doing it. You're pushing hard for an early lynch today, and you know my feelings about speedy lynches (though I'd like to avoid another month-plus day like we had yesterday). More, your and DLS' back-and-forth at the end of day 2 has made me quite suspicious of you; if we're sure DLS is town, then that argument casts you in an unfavorable light, especially as you've been, historically, one of if not THE first person to lead an investigation.

Any other questions?

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

The only reason why Than wouldn't get NK'd would be to try and disprove his claim.....which is stupid. Knowing that the chance of Than being NK'd is extremely high, I figure we should just let that happen and lynch some one else.

*cough*

vote:Nudude

*cough*

Now.....who could his partner be.....?

[Nudude]

How can you be so certain Thanatos is going to get NK'ed tomorrow? If he's scum, and survives the night he could just as easily say "Geez, they must have role blocked me again". No matter how you look at it, if there is a role - blocker, there is zero reason to kill Thanatos tonight. They can continue to role - block and confuse the town. While Thanatos, to you, may not be the best lynch, that logic is flawed.

There is no logic that can 100% prove or disprove Thanatos claim untill he is either lynched or he gets to end - game, and I'm amazed everyone so far is accepting his claim so readily, going so far as to call me scummy because I don't accept it straight away.

You guys have been making every effort to shoot down all the evidence I've presented, which I feel they are valid points. It feels like you look at what I'm saying, and instead of consider it, you try to find out why it's wrong.

By the way, starting investigations is NOT a scummy thing to do, it's a town thing to do. Talking about theories and ideas HELPS the town, and while I feel Thanatos is scum, this whole time I've been saying for people to look into it themselves NOT speedlynch Thanatos.

What's more scummy, posting ideas and evidence, or critising a person for voicing his concerns?

C'mon guys, think! At least consider the possibility his claim may be false. Yes I'm aggresive with my accusations and investigations, but it generates conversation and gets ideas flowing, so I don't care if it looks scummy because during the time I was quiet in D2 conversation dried up, so if I get killed at least it was because I was sticking my neck out to get the town talking.

It's equally possible two of you are scum supporting Thanatos's story, determined to shoot down even the most rational arguement, and though it's quite a stretch, it's possible all three of you are scum, and there is as yet another pro - town role that is trying to keep his head down.

There are many reasons Thanatos is not a vig. How can you possibly ignore them?

[Thanatos]

There are no reasons why I would not be a vig. Your ignoring the reasons why your arguments are irrational. If you were willing to back down, or consider other possibilities, then I'd probably think you were just a wrong townie. Now you're being beyond irrational. You're being scummy.

Vote:Nudude

I'm not sure about this, because you've been acting strange all day, but..whatever.

[Infinitive]

Nudude, I'm not saying that investigating people is scummy- it isn't, not by a long shot. It is, however, very out of character for you, a person who spearheaded almost every investigation that occurred on day 2, to call for one at the end of day two and then just sit back on your heels and wait for other people to do it. Given that DS came up scum, this makes me suspicious. Further, given DLS and DS's history, it makes me

very

suspicious that you tried to push DLS so hard to do the investigating.

I will go on the record here, Nudude- what I've posted may very well be false. Thanatos may be lying. We don't know, and with the cop dead, can't find out. Mafia is a game of imperfect information, careful analysis, comparative behavioral study, and gut feeling.

Now, I'm not going to vote for you yet, Nudude, because I don't want a lynch to occur before Charter's replacement and Gorgon get a chance to join the conversation, if for no other reason than I think that there's a fair chance that Gorgon's playing scum; I want to get him at the very least on record before we move forward.

But I, personally, feel that there's enough here to vote.

Mod: Can we get a prod on Gorgon, please? Thank you very much.

[Nudude]

Well, you guys just put me at L - 2, so if your not scum they can hammer me now. Just a few posts ago you were telling me to consider what the effect would be of voting for myself tomorrow if you turned up to not be vig.

Just wondering if any of the people voting for me are willing to be lynched tomorrow if I turn up town.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

I'm debating on whether or not I should unvote. If I unvote it keeps the last 2 mafia from hammering (if Nudude isn't one of them), and forces them to actually participate. If I leave my vote, and the previous scenario occurs...atleast we will know who truly is scum, but will we be able to do anything about it D4?

I feel that Than being SK is a tad more likely than him being the vig, but like I said, I'm fairly certain he's going to get NK'd so.....whatever. I have no idea what you were trying to say when you were explaining why you think Than won't get NK'd, Nudude.

And no. No one is going to bet their life on whether or not you are scum, Nudude. It was stupid of you to suggest you were going to do it, and stupid for you to think we are going to do the same thing for you. Than's situation was different. He was trying to protect a cop (or so he says)....not prove a point.

Oh, and Nudude, why do you think that just becuase we want you dead, it means we don't believe you about Than? Like I said, I feel he is most likely SK then Vig, but that fact is not going to save you. Stop going on about it. Come up with reasons as to why we shouldn't lynch you, not why we should lynch Than (let's not take into consideration the fact that we shouldn't lynch you is so we can lynch Than ). Bottom line is, it's not working. You are arguing with yourself.

I think I will

unvote

for now, and wait for the others to get back.