Mini 1875: Pine's Death Trap Post Game - Town win!

Rautherdir · Post Post #1800 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:12 pm

RC, can you confirm that?

Fro99er · Post Post #1801 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:13 pm

In post 1800, Rautherdir wrote:RC, can you confirm that?

I can confirm it. I'll link you to each game.

Fro99er · Post Post #1802 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:28 pm

In post 1801, Fro99er wrote:
In post 1800, Rautherdir wrote:RC, can you confirm that?
I can confirm it. I'll link you to each game.

Refraction

: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=62181 -- specifically where RC says he was dead sure I was scum before I claimed: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p7034816

Before I saw the claim I was dead convinced Fro99er was scum.

Varsoon's

: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=64754 -- a few examples of specific posts: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7562593, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7562182

I'm strongly scumreading Fro99er's play in particular though, and I think he's most likely to be scum.

Althought I liked this part: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7548855

I'd like you cleared because I know Fro99er's a good town player as well and supposedly Mastin2 is as well though I can't say I've played with her town game.

RC KNOWS I'M AN ASSET TO TOWN.

AngryPig's

: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=64645 -- specifically where he called me scum and voted me: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7486211, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7500998
Also this post was cool where I was 100% positive Jar was town (he was) and RC doubted me on that. I KNEW Jar was scum here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7514439

Just humor me, why are you 100% positive that Jar is town?

Although, RC actually did read me correctly after D2, so I wasn't 100% correct. He hard townread me the rest of the game.

Fro99er · Post Post #1803 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:30 pm

So, for when I die

I'm 100% positive Uzi is town.

I'm 90% positive Matt is scum. If he's scum the order I think his partners are is sheep -> Grendel/akarin (no preference, I'll try to sort that out through VCA)

Fro99er · Post Post #1804 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:33 pm

In post 1802, Fro99er wrote:
In post 1801, Fro99er wrote:
In post 1800, Rautherdir wrote:RC, can you confirm that?
I can confirm it. I'll link you to each game.

Refraction
: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=62181 -- specifically where RC says he was dead sure I was scum before I claimed: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p7034816
Before I saw the claim I was dead convinced Fro99er was scum.

Varsoon's
: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=64754 -- a few examples of specific posts: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7562593, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7562182
I'm strongly scumreading Fro99er's play in particular though, and I think he's most likely to be scum.
Althought I liked this part: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7548855
I'd like you cleared because I know Fro99er's a good town player as well and supposedly Mastin2 is as well though I can't say I've played with her town game.
RC KNOWS I'M AN ASSET TO TOWN.

AngryPig's
: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=64645 -- specifically where he called me scum and voted me: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7486211, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7500998
Also this post was cool where I was 100% positive Jar was town (he was) and RC doubted me on that. I KNEW Jar was scum here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7514439
Just humor me, why are you 100% positive that Jar is town?
Although, RC actually did read me correctly after D2, so I wasn't 100% correct. He hard townread me the rest of the game.

(I should say in Varsoon's game I was playing as a hydra with Mastin called Masters of Bull...but I was the one doing most of the playing...Mastin was mostly absent until I replaced out)

Fro99er · Post Post #1805 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:48 pm

In post 890, Grendel wrote:Also your Jar jar read. You seemed sure he was scum yesterday, but now its like he is the shining hero who is defeating evil RC for you. Like you reads coming into today seem to have flipped completely.

If Matt is scum, this basically rules Grendel out as Matt and Jar's partner.

This is EXACTLY what I found.

Fro99er · Post Post #1806 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:55 pm

In post 1185, Akarin wrote:
In post 1170, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 1151, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1150, JarJarDrinks wrote:UNVOTE:
By way of summary what was the nature of your scum-read of Transcend?
Already kinda answered this
In post 1097, JarJarDrinks wrote:It's a little of both. It's policy cause he's stubbornly refusing to play. But I also think it's scummy because I know he's capable of playing a solid game. If he'd start giving us real content, I'd probably move my vote.
So considering his play was anti-town and I know he's capable of much better, I lean scum on him.

So basically my vote was mainly to attempt to motivate him to start posting real content and if he didn't, I would have been happy to lynch him.

Looks like the replacement is already redeeming the slot w/ a vote on RC.

Probably not Jar Jar's partner here.
VOTE: RC
You're not actually answering the question. You weren't policy voting him, but you know he's capable of more, so you have a scum read on him and are voting for him, but didn't really want to lynch him and were just voting him to motivate him and would have moved your vote if he posted more and the replacement is town because they're trying?

That sounds exactly like a policy vote that you don't want to admit is a policy vote.

Fro99er · Post Post #1807 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:55 pm

WTF, it cut off my text. Akarin is probably not jar jar's partner for ^^^

Fro99er · Post Post #1808 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:56 pm

That would leave either nancy or sheep, and I highly doubt it's nancy as you'll see through VCA.

Fro99er · Post Post #1809 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:59 pm

In post 499, Cooperative Sheep wrote:
In post 436, Transcend wrote:What's the Grendel lynch about
I think it's about pressure and consensus.

And if you read sheep's ISO, he never actually pressures Grendel, other than with a vote. He just votes him and leaves it there and tells people it's about pressure, but DOESN'T ACTUALLY PRESSURE GRENDEL DIRECTLY BY PUSHING HIM OR ASKING HIM QUESITONS OR TRYING TO FIND SCUMMY PLAY FROM HIM.

There's more from sheep later. I just wanted to point this out.

Rautherdir · Post Post #1810 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:10 pm

Alright, you know what,

no lynching until after Sunday.

I didn't make plans for what to do during the night, so I need to look everything over again in the light of JJD being scum. Also,

@pine:

I will have limited access until Thursday.

I'm not saying we can't vote and discuss who we should lynch, I'm just saying we should wait until everyone catches up and gets the chance to say what they want.

Rautherdir · Post Post #1811 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:13 pm

Pine, I meant Friday. V/LA until Friday.

Noted

Fro99er · Post Post #1812 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:12 pm

also post 815 basically rules out Uzi as scum with Jar. That's not a bus-push on Jar by Uzi.

Keyser Söze · Post Post #1813 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:24 pm

In post 1749, nancy wrote:{Fro99er, Keyser, RC}
{Akarin, LUV}
{}
{Sheep}
{Grendel, MBG}

Why did you leave out Rauth's name?
You thought he would/should be dead?

Keyser Söze · Post Post #1814 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:32 pm

In post 1751, RadiantCowbells wrote:that ladies and gentlemen is what you call an obvious bus.

That's why I didn't want a "Fro99er vs JarJar 1v1" - I knew it would only cause suspicion (via WIFOM).

At the end of the D2 I was locked into a JarJar-LUV-Matt scum team theory. I'm going to take a step back from that for the moment because I felt the associations fit too easily. I'm going to look at my town leans/reads first (excluding RC and Rauth who are my constants).

Like Pine said, no toxic play ladies and gents. We can talk this through.

Fro99er · Post Post #1815 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:43 pm

Oh hey look what I found

In post 813, Keyser Söze wrote:I may look at mattblackguy first actually:
In post 797, mattblackguy wrote:The fact that Keyser didn't make a vote outside of RVS yet was still active is a little concerning.
Either you did not fully read Day 1 or you are scum.

VOTE: mattblackguy

You can start by deconstructing your read of JarJarDrinks from Day 1 through to Day 2 (from scum-read to town-read)

GO!

Keyser also noticed what Grendel and I noticed!

Fro99er · Post Post #1816 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:28 pm

Spoiler: VCA with only confirmed when Frog flips town

Vote Count 2.7 above shows that Uzi was the counterwagon to JarJar, and if we assume Keyser is town (I think a reasonable assumption) then MBG is scum and Uzi is town. If MBG is scum, then my post 1805 shows Grendel is 100% town and my post 1815 shows Keyser is 100% town (which fits with the assumption).

The alternative is that Keyser is scum if Matt flips town

, and that would make sense given how they voted together D1 (and keyser voted matt), and then voted against each other D2, but ultimately ended up on the same wagon in Vote Count 2.7. They basically have to be opposite teams, so if Matt flips town it's almost guaranteed Keyser is scum.

But we can come to that game state later. First let's work with Matt!scum -- then Keyser, Uzi, and Grendel are town. So now I will redo the VCA with those colored in...

Spoiler: VCA with Uzi, Keyser, and Grendel as town and MBG as scum

Then it comes down to Akarin, Nancy, and Sheep. If we let Akarin be town for post 1806, then it comes down to Nancy and Sheep. Thankfully they cross vote each other in Vote Count 2.1 (when Nancy is still Transcend). It's more likely Nancy is town, because they voted JarJar and Sheep, plus also voting Matt between Vote Count 1.1 and 1.2, meaning they'd have voted for all three scum, although the Nancy/Transcend combo also voted four town in myself/Vifam, Rauth, RC, and Gerry. But that looks more like lost town. Sheep vote parked both days...D1 on Grendel (town) and D2 on Transcend/Nancy. Scum tend to have static reads, and the fact that Sheep didn't really case Grendel or Transcend (ok, he cased Transcend but it was REALLY weak) makes him more likely scum than Transcend/Nancy.

So tl;dr when I die it goes like this (in order):

lynch MBG...

if MBG scum then Sheep -> Nancy -> Akarin is the order for the partner to JJD/MBG. Uzi, Grendel, Keyser are town in this scenario.
if MBG town then Keyser -> ??? -> ??? ... but Uzi is still town in this scenario. I honestly can't narrow down who Keyser's partner would be in this scenario because he's parked on MBG and Uzi D2, and MBG and Grendel D1, and nobody has voted him in any of these Vote Counts.
In a really weird scenario where both MBG and Keyser are town, then 2.7 means Nancy was the counterwagon to scum JarJar, so Sheep is confscum here with either Akarin or Grendel.
Finally, there's some fucked up gamestate where RC and Rauth are both scum with JJD, but I really don't want to think about that. But RC does have that cunning manipulator banner...

Now I am fine with lynching me if you all need to.

Fro99er · Post Post #1817 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:30 pm

DEAR TOWN. PLEASE READ THE POST JUST ABOVE THIS ONE WHEN I DIE. THANK YOU.

nancy · Post Post #1818 (ISO) » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:54 pm

In post 1813, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1749, nancy wrote:{Fro99er, Keyser, RC}
{Akarin, LUV}
{}
{Sheep}
{Grendel, MBG}
Why did you leave out Rauth's name?
You thought he would/should be dead?

Yeah, my reads are in a notepad file, I just copy pasted without realizing. Rauth is a TR obviously.

It looks like Sheep is scum to most people in most scenarios. This might be a better alternative to mbg/Fro99er? We really need to flip the roleblocker today, that's kind of at the forefront of my mind.

nancy · Post Post #1819 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:00 am

I mean my SR on Fro99er is basically reliant on me reading the 1v1 with JJD as scum theater. I read it this way because JJD's tone was fake. RC's reasons for SRing Fro99er seem to be different to mine. Vifam was Town for me and Fro99er was mostly Town, but I can totally see the hardbus as well, hypothetically speaking. So essentially this doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence in flipping the slot.

nancy · Post Post #1820 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:02 am

And while I accept that there is potential scum motivation in much of their posts, it's hard to read the above for instance as simply a last-ditch self-save by scum!Fro99er.

Fro99er · Post Post #1821 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:07 am

In post 1820, nancy wrote:And while I accept that there is potential scum motivation in much of their posts, it's hard to read the above for instance as simply a last-ditch self-save by scum!Fro99er.

i'm not trying to save myself at all

i'm trying to win the game for town, whether I'm dead or alive.

Fro99er · Post Post #1822 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:12 am

In post 1819, nancy wrote:I mean my SR on Fro99er is basically reliant on me reading the 1v1 with JJD as scum theater. I read it this way because JJD's tone was fake. RC's reasons for SRing Fro99er seem to be different to mine. Vifam was Town for me and Fro99er was mostly Town, but I can totally see the hardbus as well, hypothetically speaking. So essentially this doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence in flipping the slot.

If we're not flipping me, then we're flipping between MBG and Keyser because Uzi was the counterwagon to JarJar (and let's be clear, we're flipping MBG over Keyser)

It needs to be one of me or MBG today.

nancy · Post Post #1823 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:12 am

That's what I'm saying it looks like. Especially since basically everything in 1816 mirrors what's being going on in my head since the JJD flip.

RadiantCowbells · Post Post #1824 (ISO) » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:14 am

We're lynching Fro99er or LUV.