Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Gamma Emerald]

Let's note that reads do not equal actual thoughts on alignment distribution

[Titus]

VOTE: Nero

[Alisae]

VOTE: Nero

Titus you know I'm most likely shooting this, right?

[Alisae]

Like my shots are
Kyouko
Pine
Nero

[Alisae]

in no particular order btw.

[Alisae]

who I shoot is depended on flips.

[Gamma Emerald]

Titus, come back to voting Tywin

[Gamma Emerald]

I TOLD YOU ALI
TYWIN GOES IN THE VIG POOL IF HE IS NOT LYNCHED TODAY

[Pine]

Pine. Do you have ANY Thoughts about what has been going on?

And what are your reads?

I've actually been pretty upfront about my reads, and they haven't changed much, despite how much you people are vomiting into this thread. Cloudkicker's ISO analysis provided a wealth of information, much of which you've largely ignored, that I'm standing by. Let's go back to this post:

This is the Townbloc I'm seeing right now, by the way:

==Upstanding Citizens==
Pine - My role PM says so.
Titus - Solid Townread, supported by consistent attacks by by Cloudkicker
Cabd - Solid Townread, supported by clearing Titus. No reason to clear her or even claim if scum.

==Probationary Members==
Sonia - Interactions with Cloudkicker. See post 2301 for details.
Kyouko - Recent developments, gamesolving
Nero - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker
Alisae - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker, probationary due to possible (even likely) status as SK.
Gamma - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker

That's 8/14 of the playerlist. Hunh. I've never been especially good at Townhunting, but this game seems like a bit of a perfect storm for it.

==Scumlist==
Tywin - I reread him, and the scumvibes are strong. The fact that he has pretty much gone to ground after the pressure lifted from him reinforces the notion that the initial scumread was sound, and all that AtE was an attempt to gain sympathy. Fire away, Alisae.
Mozamis - Explored elsewhere, mostly to do with disingenuous and inconsistent reads and justifications.

That leaves a remarkably small nullpile...

==Meh==
Elbirn & AJ - I keep getting these two mixed up. Neither has come off as Townish, but neither have they made any notable errors or slips. They could be scum playing it close to the vest or cautious Town. I don't know yet.
Nosferatu - Who? I looked this guy up, and his site-wide wordcount in the last ten days is smaller than this post alone. That suggests NAI lurker to me, and probably flake-bait. Complains about catching up difficulties. I can empathize with that to an extent, but come on, man. We're no longer at a 20-pages-a-day pace. Skim a bit. I won't shed any tears if he gets vigged, though I always prefer someone scummy to a lurker any day of the week.
Syryana - Again, who? I haven't interacted with this slot all game. I see a ton of fluff and nonsense in his ISO. Lots of memes, not a lot of scumhunting. Actually, he hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week.

@Mod: Can we get a replacement on Syryana? Or at least a fairly insistent prodding?

Okay, there are my thoughts. Some feedback and discussion would be appreciated. Apologies for multiposting, I know that makes me a hypocrite and I don't care.

So there's the foundation to work from. Since posting this, we lost Cabd, Nos, and Mozamis, and Syryana was replaced by MasonGerry.

I'd like to remind you that I caught what I think is a Towntell from Kyouko, here:

Kyouko actually comes out of this with Townpoints. I figure a scum who spotted what they thought was a Mason crumb would just kill said person and be done with it, rather than try to publicly solve the game. Or at least they'd point out the crumb to their buddies in private and not share the observation with Town.

Other changes: Nero is looking scummier to me, especially with that move on Gamma. Gamma has moved down to nullish. Both of the TRs on them from Cloudkicker's ISO were pretty weak, as he was mostly just badmouthing Nero without voting, and voted Gamma without much conviction, only to hop off without much reason. Alisae...fuck, I don't know. If you're Vig, you'll get killed before too long. If you're nonBP SK, same. If you're alive near endgame, then we can afford to look at you again. Mostly, I find your playstyle repellent, and your reasoning childish. But whatever. Elbirn and AJ are still struggling to make a lasting impression on me, but what I've seen looks generally Townish. They deserve a reread of their ISOs.

Seeing the VC, I'd prefer Tywin. I'm more certain of him.

VOTE: Tywin

[Alisae]

You said that if you voted Kyouko. You never did vote Kyouko.
He's still a shot, I'm just limiting my shots to 3 people.
He would be the 4th person on the list.

[Gamma Emerald]

I said I'd be okay with a ssbm lynch, not that I'd vote

[Alisae]

TBH, my reasoning is sorta childish right now because I sorta want to get this game done with XD

[Pine]

I'm willing to chalk it up to a "this game" problem, and give you a fresh slate elsewhere. W/e

Your reasons for TRing Tywin are stupid.

Do me a favor, and check Cloudkicker's ISO. Use CTRL+F and enter Tywin. Explain why Traitor Cloudkicker goes to the mat for Town!Tywin.

[Alisae]

To plant paranoia in the town. Reverse Psychology.

[Alisae]

OMG D2 I WAS LOOKING FOR THIS SHIT BUT I COULD NEVER FIND IT

Titus is town, tywin is town, aj looks town, sonia is gut town with pro reads that are just like mine.

Sbm might be playing a great scumgame btw

, elbirn looks town enough,

gamma with the mason comment looks ridiculously town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Nero

I'm with mom

[Gamma Emerald]

So?

[Gamma Emerald]

@Ali

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Nero

I'm with mom

what's your read on gamma.

[Pine]

OMG D2 I WAS LOOKING FOR THIS SHIT BUT I COULD NEVER FIND IT

Titus is town, tywin is town, aj looks town, sonia is gut town with pro reads that are just like mine.

Sbm might be playing a great scumgame btw

, elbirn looks town enough,

gamma with the mason comment looks ridiculously town

Ehh, okay, I could see Gammascum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Votecount 3.6

Gamma Emerald 5 (Elbirn, Aj The Epic, Alisae, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
ssbm_Kyouko 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)
Aj The Epic 1 (ssbm_Kyouko)
Nero Cain 1 (Pine)

Not Voting 1 (gerryoat)

Sonia is V/LA.

Votecount 3.5

ssbm_Kyouko 5 (xSoniaNevermindx, Alisae, Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
Aj The Epic 1 (ssbm_Kyouko)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Elbirn)

Not Voting 2 (Pine, gerryoat)

I like how the same 4 players swing from one wagon to the next like it's nothing. Doesn't surprise me to see Alisae doing this because he always sheeps but really calls into question Aj/Tywin/Nero imo. 1 of these is scum surely

[Alisae]

Here's the way I see it.
CK was doing town things and dropping intentional traitor tells to drop some paranoia in the town. Whenever he got lynched or got killed in this case, it would make some of his TRs look really bad and some of his SRs look really good.
Sometimes with CK the way I see it you have to look at the bigger picture, and sometime you have to take things at face value. Like for example when he directly told Kyouko that traitors want to make themselves look obvious for their scumteam, and then votes Lapsa, or when he basicly claimed he was part of the mafia when he was fucking around with his signature. Him voting Lapsa and him saying that Traitors want to make themselves look obvious to their scumteam is basicly him claiming traitor because it was a counter claim to Lapsa's traitor.
CK give a TR on Titus, a TR on AJ. A TR on Tywin. These are all the people that Cloudie hoped we mislynch. Too bad we cleared Titus.
He gives Kyouko a scumread. A person we hoped we could dismiss as town.
He gives Elbrin a TR. I don't get this one.
He gives Gamma a TR. I think this TR is the real scumread. Also it's the very last read mentioned in that string. People read from left to right, so naturally people will go look at the first few TRs and go "Oh thats Cloudie's scummates." Basicly he hoped the Gamma read would be ignored completely.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Considering how similar the wagon on Gamma looks to the wagon on me I'd say he's pretty likely to be town since I'm town. If he's scum though it would be with Sonia or Pine I think just based on PoE after seeing how swiftly the wagon moved onto him. Don't think a block of 4 players with a scum blending in would move off of town!Kyouko to scum!Gamma. This is all based on *if* Gamma is scum though but I think it's more likely that based on how fast that wagon moved from me to him that there are scum in there just going along with the anti-Titus side of the town because Titus is conf. People shading Titus's conf status are pretty suspect too.

[Pine]

Here's the way I see it.
CK was doing town things and dropping intentional traitor tells to drop some paranoia in the town. Whenever he got lynched or got killed in this case, it would make some of his TRs look really bad and some of his SRs look really good.
Sometimes with CK the way I see it you have to look at the bigger picture, and sometime you have to take things at face value. Like for example when he directly told Kyouko that traitors want to make themselves look obvious for their scumteam, and then votes Lapsa, or when he basicly claimed he was part of the mafia when he was fucking around with his signature. Him voting Lapsa and him saying that Traitors want to make themselves look obvious to their scumteam is basicly him claiming traitor because it was a counter claim to Lapsa's traitor.
CK give a TR on Titus, a TR on AJ. A TR on Tywin. These are all the people that Cloudie hoped we mislynch. Too bad we cleared Titus.
He gives Kyouko a scumread. A person we hoped we could dismiss as town.
He gives Elbrin a TR. I don't get this one.
He gives Gamma a TR. I think this TR is the real scumread. Also it's the very last read mentioned in that string. People read from left to right, so naturally people will go look at the first few TRs and go "Oh thats Cloudie's scummates." Basicly he hoped the Gamma read would be ignored completely.

That's like...the opposite of the correct read. Everything you're saying presupposes that Cloudkicker knew he'd get killed early. He didn't. Planning for failure is not a productive strategy.

[Alisae]

Lapsa 9 (Pine, CloudKicker, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko, Cabd, Syryana, Alisae)

Now, let's look at this. We see Traitor Cloudie. Kyouko mentions some stuff about the Lapsa saying how Scum probably tried to stay off the Lapsa wagon. And Gamma is there. Cool. Cloudie effectively communicated to his scum team that he was the traitor.

BUT WAIT ALISAE?!?!?! WHY WAS HE NK'D IF HE COMMUNICATED THAT OFF PERFECTLY?!?!?!
Becuase killing him would hopefully caused more mislynches.