Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Nosferatu]

@everyone not named me: Should suspected but not proven to be Vig/SKs be leashed or instantly lynched?

lynched. I remember in my first game on this site, we tried to leash suspected sk TSO, but it entirely blew up in our faces. I was indifferent to the matter then, but now I know there's no real reason to leash over lynch.

I'd really like to not relive that; reading to see if I acknowledge tywin's case on Alisae.

[Nosferatu]

@alisae: does your vig have an X-Night modifier?

[Pine]

Any answer would be a WIFOM situation. Is she saying 3-shot because she's a 3-shot Vig, or because she's an SK who will elect to stop shooting after that many nights for Towncred?

Answer anyway, Alisae, I'm just saying it's a question we inherently can't trust the answer to.

[Nosferatu]

she already said she's not X-shot, I'm asking if she's even or odd-night

[Aj The Epic]

@everyone not named me: Should suspected but not proven to be Vig/SKs be leashed or instantly lynched?

lynched. I remember in my first game on this site, we tried to leash suspected sk TSO, but it entirely blew up in our faces. I was indifferent to the matter then, but now I know there's no real reason to leash over lynch.

I'd really like to not relive that; reading to see if I acknowledge tywin's case on Alisae.

I'd be interested to hear how y'all fucked that up. SK wins only in a Lylo situation with 3 people and mislynch.

The real answer is you leash them and lynch them only if you feel you're out of scum. I'm not sure the current state of wincons for an SK but I'm pretty sure they lose an endgame with scum having majority. It's from that perspective that you keep them around and keep careful track of kills/lynch majority so you don't somehow skip mylo/lylo. Wasting time on Vig/Sk day 2 is completely pointless. Gets you no information, gets you a guaranteed non-groupscum lynch, gives scum nothing to fear at night.

[Titus]

Can we lynch lynch Mozamis Elbrin Tywin SSM nero

Yeah that great to Tipsy Titus

Pick one

[Alisae]

I'm not odd or even night.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Titus - Wait, Elbirn? Why Elbirn? I'm starting to get suspicious I might have misunderstood you yesterday.
What do you think of Syryana joking about vigging Alisae?

@Alisae - Are there any restrictions on when you can kill besides during the night phase?

[Tywin Lannister]

Okay!
I never actually sent the last letter. Let's try this again.

Dear Santa, I would like to vig the following People.
Tywin
Kyouko
Sonia

Just shoot me please.

Reasons:

A) I won't be an inevitable town mislynch
B) You can't hit any actual town PRs
C) I can happily stop trying to catch up on 30 pages each day
D) Forces town to either reevaluate the game, or just lose faster for being so irresponsible

I'm serious. I'd rather you NK me than have town waste another day mislynching another VT for no actual reason whatsoever. The fact that there's not even a case on me doesn't even bother anyone, so I feel like the game is a wash. Town can't be carried by one smart player the same way as scum can, so losing due to being on a less than stellar town team isn't that bad. Id rather it end quicker the way this game has been going. Scum don't even need to try when we have town like this against them. 100 pages on D2, and we are still back to mislynching the same wagons we were D1. Nothing learned, nothing questioned, nobody scum hunting at all, nobody presenting any cases against me or anyone else... It's high time I'm put out of my misery and leave town to their own devices. Maybe they'll focus after I'm gone and at least attempt to find real scum. If not, then I'd rather not be here to watch it slip away anyways.

So.... Shoot me plz?

[Alisae]

@Alisae - Are there any restrictions on when you can kill besides during the night phase?

I can only kill during the night phase and I can kill whoever the fuck I want whoever the fuck I want. Besides obv towns. Shooting them would be retarded.

[Tywin Lannister]

Also: everyone needs to stop focusing on Alisae and try to find actual scum. She's obviously NOT scum. She's either SK or Vigi, neither of which matter right now. Town loses no matter what Alisae flips if we don't find scum. Alisea questions aren't progressing the game. It's stalking it out. It's giving scum the ability to post without needing to actually scum hunt. It's a red herring that is anti-town when it takes focus away from scum.

Merry Christmas

[Alisae]

Titus can you quickly explain to me why Moz?

[Tywin Lannister]

@Alisae - Are there any restrictions on when you can kill besides during the night phase?

I can only kill during the night phase and I can kill whoever the fuck I want whoever the fuck I want. Besides obv towns. Shooting them would be retarded.

You don't even know who obvious towns are, nor do you seem to want to find them or find scum. If you're town, this 'I will shoot whoever I want I am teh shooter, memememememe' talk is distracting and anti-town. You're going to lose due to it. If you're SK, you're going to lose anyways so idk what to tell you.

The thing you should be worried more about than anything is the fact that you claimed D1 and scum saw you as more helpful to them than town. That's why you're alive still. If you were a detriment to scum, you'd be NK'd in a heartbeat. Remember that disrespect and maybe use it to find real scum instead of this weird power trip you're going on about. Scum are laughing at you at night when they won't NK you, because it means they fully expect you to continue to help their cause in mislynching and NKing town. Just saying. Shoot some scums and force their hand if you really are town vigi. Stop doing their work for them.

Except tonight. Go ahead and shoot me tonight (if I'm not mislynched by then). I support that and won't count it against you.

[Nosferatu]

ok then VOTE: Alisae.
I can't see why a town vig wouldn't shoot syr if she actually believed the claim was serious. It's also pretty clear she believed him, cause she expected him to claim the cloud shot in 2109.

[Titus]

I am just drunk and trolling around my gut reada.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm going to go back and look for the players that were hard reading Tywin as town for the way he got riled up and then calmed down. I know I ended up pushing my read on him aside because I saw him calming down

and

I saw several people hard reading him as town. One of those was Cloud, which was probably the player that convinced me the most to put aside that read. Obviously after that flip I'm not so sure about how right I was to do that.
I also saw Gamma do it here:

tbh I think Tywin!town isn't such a wild thought. He managed to level his thoughts and become rational.

I'm going to look for more players saying this and see who says it first, who says it most often, etc. Try to see if a vocal minority (scumteam) is trying to derail Tywin's wagon for some reason, whether because Tywin claimed vanilla or because Tywin is a part of their team.
I will say that going back to this Lapsa wagon of [Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Cabd] that the prime candidate for scum on it fmpov is Gamma. Alisae is clearly either SK or Vig which means she's not scum, Pine's vote was the first on the wagon so is less suspicious than the later ones, plus he's starting to look town today. Been waffling a bit on Cabd but I'm not shook yet. He's still town for me and Titus is still my rock today
Right now, before looking for who else was calling Tywin town, suspicions are on Gamma/Tywin, but if Alisae is at least thinking of killing Tywin tonight I'm looking elsewhere for now. If I had to pick one from your list Titus it would be mozamis but I don't think that's the best course for today. Going to wait for Gamma's catchup before I decided if I want to vote him though

@Alisae, will you consider shooting Tywin tonight? (Don't want your shot locked in there b/c it helps scum to know where you're shooting) If so I'll unvote for now

[Pine]

Cannot decide if Tywin's massive AtE is a scum tactic or genuine frustration. It reads as the latter, which makes me question my reads, but it's also classic scum to fake fatalism.

Need to weigh Tywin objectively again.

VOTE: Unvote for now.

[Alisae]

@Alisae, will you consider shooting Tywin tonight? (Don't want your shot locked in there b/c it helps scum to know where you're shooting) If so I'll unvote for now

My letter to Santa states 3 people I want to vig.
Tywin
Kyouko
Sonia.

Does this answer your question?

[Alisae]

If Tywin was this frustrated, I feel like he would have wanted to be replace by now. I have 1 game with him to back this up.

[Alisae]

No I expected Syr to shoot me.

[Pine]

See, this exchange is making me think Alisae is SK instead of Vig. SK is worried about other shooters, Vig is just part of Town.

Jury's still out though.

[Alisae]

I rather shoot all of them mafias over townies. Hence why I shot someone who most people from what I remember thought as scum (Uzi)

[Alisae]

And what I meant by "I'll shoot whoever the fuck I want as long as they aren't obv town" is I'll be shooting any 1 of the 3 people on my vig list.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ok Alisae that answer works. Also I think I found an Alisae vig crumb while rereading the great Tywin fiasco looking for who was reading him as town to see if it looked like a scumteam derailing his lynch (mostly inconclusive so far, but Gamma is probably town regardless of Tywin's alignment). Check the bolded in her post out:

I'm done with this shit.

Dayvig: Tywin Lannister

Thanks for saving me the trouble Gamma.

And Yeah Titus, I agree on focusing on someone else, either Kyouko, Lapsa, or me if you really want to. If you want, I can try to show off my case on Kyouko if you would like to hear it. Kyouko seems like he could be town, but if Tywin is scum, I can see him being paired up with Lapsa and Tywin. But let's see what he flips first.
Either way, if you are willing to work with me, I feel like we can get this game solved by day 2 or day 3 assuming that Tywin is scum.

My top scum reads at the moment are Lapsa, Tywin, Kyouko, and Moz.

If Tywin is town, then my theory about Kyouko is off by a long shot.

[Alisae]

Kyouko, you want more crumbs, evertime I said "Mew" was a crumb because it ryhmes with "Pew"
Also my stance on the Tywin v Titus fight. To me it really didn't matter how that fight ended up because if one of them was lynched, say Tywin was town at that point I would have felt motivated to shoot Titus.
If Titus fliped town, I would have shot Tywin.
Also this:

Actually Tywin, I think I calmed down a bit. Remember when you asked me what I'd do if Titus was lynched today on D2? Ez, it's not that simple.