Newbie 470: Trouble at Mount Excitement - Mafia Wins!

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Scum absolutely would have fakeclaimed cop at L-1! DLS would have been almost derelict of duty not to do so. Had she not fakeclaimed, she would have been lynched then and there. Worst-case scenario, she gets lynched anyway. Best-case scenario, she either draws out the actual cop, or there is no actual cop, and she is trusted until endgame. Which is what is happening.

Your argument for me rests on DLS not taking a risky gambit. Yet it assumes that I, as mafia, would have taken an even riskier gambit by not killing the cop. You haven't chosen between logic and reason, you've chosen neither, and you have until DLS and either joubert or charms checks this game to reconsider.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Or, of course, you are the other scum. Is that why you wanted a replacement for shadowlurker, DLS?

[TheStranger]

First of all, even though I think DLS has been scummy all game, I do not think the bandwagon on her seemed very reasonable at the time. It seemed more to fit the idea that, as she said, scum had noticed poor breadcrumbing and was jumping on. You say scum would have absolutley claimed at L-1 but regardless scum would've had to plan to fakeclaim in advance to set up the breadcrumbs. You say she would've been lynched right then and there, yet Joubert seemed to be totally pro-DLS, MoS showed no interest in her(He later revealed that this was because he noticed the breadcrumbs), and Shadowlurker was barely ever around and didn't show any interest in DLS in his previous post. So nobody had asked for a claim, nobody said they were gonna hammer anytime soon. So I find your suggestion that claiming was her last option to be misleading at best. Plenty of bandwagons occur like that and dissapate quickly.

You say your gambit if you were scum would be riskier than DLS's gambit if she were scum, but I do not believe that. There was a 50% that there is a cop in this game, yet there's only a 2/5 chance that DLS would investigate scum at random(not accounting for the facts that HS's innocence and suspicion of MoS might influence her choice). Even if she investigated one of them, she would be suspect for not being NKed anyway, so the daytalk scum might be able to get her lynched regardless. In conclusion I find not NKing the cop to be the less riskier scum gambit.

Or, of course, you are the other scum. Is that why you wanted a replacement for shadowlurker, DLS?

Umm if I remember correctly DLS also suggested that maybe I should be modkilled, so that seems a little conflicting there.


I'm not gonna pretend this is a simple choice. I think there are good arguments both ways, but I think you are simply more likely scum, TSPN. I'm not the best mafia player or anything, and I won't be totally surprised if I find out I was wrong. But feel free to try to convince me further if you want, TSPN.

[TheStranger]

Btw, for the sake of clarity, I currently suspect Charms to be TSPN's partner.

[Joubert]

Alright I'll tell you guys what I think. I know that either or both TSPN or DLS must be scum. If this is not true we will certainly lose. Both of their votes were on each other for a decent period of time with no others occuring. This indictes that they cannot both be townies, or else there would have been a quicklynch.

I don't think it's safe to jump to such conclusions quickly. If we're in a Lylo situation, Scum wouldn't hesitate since it gives them instant victory. But having this kind of quicklynch in Day 1 would surely make the 2 quicklynchers very suspicious. The possibility still exists, but the logic is not bullet-proof...

Your argument for me rests on DLS not taking a risky gambit. Yet it assumes that I, as mafia, would have taken an even riskier gambit by not killing the cop. You haven't chosen between logic and reason, you've chosen neither, and you have until DLS and either joubert or charms checks this game to reconsider.

Yeah but if DLS is indeed a false Cop, Scum wouldn't have killed her, partly because we would find out anyway on the Dawn of Day 2. And since she was not lynched, Scum got everything they wanted with their tactic. And then, DLS have to deal with her investigation that lead nowhere...

Or, of course, you are the other scum. Is that why you wanted a replacement for shadowlurker, DLS?

Umm if I remember correctly DLS also suggested that maybe I should be modkilled, so that seems a little conflicting there.

I consider these assumptions out of context. It had to do with the game's evolution...

Now one last thing, and an important one. TheStranger, what you said makes sense and indeed brings something to chew on. But your vote on TSPN was as dangerous as the original vote from Dark Lady at the beginning of Day 2. You mentionned yourself that a quicklynch is possible. At this stage (Lylo), a quicklynch could happen easily if the 2 Scum are allowed to vote. So it's a delicate situation. Either you turn out to be Town and we lose after a quicklynch from the 2 other Scum, OR, you turn out to be Scum because the quicklynch doesn't happen...

So your behavior looks quite ambiguous and I don't like that. At the very least, I'd propose a FoS, but not a Vote...

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

This 'go slow' thing has gone on long enough. A think there have been enough arguements flying around for people to know what they want to do. If not, you need to start asking question. Now it just seems like your hesitating. I wonder why.

[TheStranger]

My parts in bold

Alright I'll tell you guys what I think. I know that either or both TSPN or DLS must be scum. If this is not true we will certainly lose. Both of their votes were on each other for a decent period of time with no others occuring. This indictes that they cannot both be townies, or else there would have been a quicklynch.

I don't think it's safe to jump to such conclusions quickly. If we're in a Lylo situation, Scum wouldn't hesitate since it gives them instant victory. But having this kind of quicklynch in Day 1 would surely make the 2 quicklynchers very suspicious. The possibility still exists, but the logic is not bullet-proof...

Umm both DLS and TSPN have already voted each other for a decent period of (real) time today. They also openly demanded votes. There would be nothing suspicious if 2 more voted at that point.

Your argument for me rests on DLS not taking a risky gambit. Yet it assumes that I, as mafia, would have taken an even riskier gambit by not killing the cop. You haven't chosen between logic and reason, you've chosen neither, and you have until DLS and either joubert or charms checks this game to reconsider.

Yeah but if DLS is indeed a false Cop, Scum wouldn't have killed her, partly because we would find out anyway on the Dawn of Day 2. And since she was not lynched, Scum got everything they wanted with their tactic. And then, DLS have to deal with her investigation that lead nowhere...

I find this confusing. Are you refering to the possiblity that DLS is a townie? Because we really haven't been discussing that at all. I don't think anyone is sugesting that. DLS thinks she's scum, I think she's the cop.

Or, of course, you are the other scum. Is that why you wanted a replacement for shadowlurker, DLS?

Umm if I remember correctly DLS also suggested that maybe I should be modkilled, so that seems a little conflicting there.

I consider these assumptions out of context. It had to do with the game's evolution...

Now one last thing, and an important one. TheStranger, what you said makes sense and indeed brings something to chew on. But your vote on TSPN was as dangerous as the original vote from Dark Lady at the beginning of Day 2. You mentionned yourself that a quicklynch is possible. At this stage (Lylo), a quicklynch could happen easily if the 2 Scum are allowed to vote. So it's a delicate situation. Either you turn out to be Town and we lose after a quicklynch from the 2 other Scum, OR, you turn out to be Scum because the quicklynch doesn't happen...

So your behavior looks quite ambiguous and I don't like that. At the very least, I'd propose a FoS, but not a Vote...

What?! I'm suspicious because I'm ambiguous? And by ambiguous you mean I could be scum or town. Doesn't that mean you have to FOS everybody? I don't see anything particularly suspect about casting my vote, just because it's a delicate situation. We have 14 pages to go on for 5 players, I think that's plenty. But as I said, both DLS and TSPN have also casted votes today(DLS twice) does that make them suspect too? Do I have to wait a certain time period before I'm allowed to vote without automatic suspicion?

Also the only problem I had with DLS's first vote day 2 was that she did it without realizing we could lose from it. As long as a person considers the consequences adequately I don't think it really matters when they vote day 2(though in order to weigh those consequences I think some conversation is needed for the day)

I agree with DLS too, I think your post says very little overall and looks like stalling.

FOS

Btw, take it however you want, but I do quallify as an IC.

[Joubert]

Oh I see... So the game is "too slow", as if a game had a pre-determined acceptable length...

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Oh I see... So the game is "too slow", as if a game had a pre-determined acceptable length...

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

Oh, don't put your vote down simply to spite us and without explination. You better say something quick before my vote turns to you.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

FYI....I did unvote eatrlier so TSPN has 2 votes on him.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Huh. It would seem my basic assumption about this game was incorrect. I need to reconsider. I will hopefully have more later, but its finals week for me and I'm a tad busy. For now, though:

Unvote.

[Charms86]

Btw, for the sake of clarity, I currently suspect Charms to be TSPN's partner.

Interesting. Why?

More later when I get a chance to read through everything.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Btw, for the sake of clarity, I currently suspect Charms to be TSPN's partner.

Interesting. Why?

More later when I get a chance to read through everything.

Yeah, why Charms?

Personally, I was leaning more towards Joubert.

[TheStranger]

Mainly because both Charms and TSPN voted Happy Sadist as well as Dark Lady.

Since nobody has hammered, then either TSPN or myself and Joubert are scum. But that would be assuming Dark_Lady and Charms are competent players.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Oh, I see. I will give that some serious thought.

[Joubert]

Looks like the more I open my trap, the more I am suspected...

Unvote

This 'go slow' thing has gone on long enough. A think there have been enough arguements flying around for people to know what they want to do. If not, you need to start asking question. Now it just seems like your hesitating. I wonder why.

Damn, this is ridiculous. I did start something "fresh" for the sake of the game, and I get angry eyes in return...

Umm both DLS and TSPN have already voted each other for a decent period of (real) time today. They also openly demanded votes. There would be nothing suspicious if 2 more voted at that point.

You're incriminating yourself, here. The more your vote stays without a lynch, the more you're suspected, obviously. It's simple mathematical logic, I did not invent anything. The conspiracy turns more towards Dark Lady / TheStranger pair. I made the same remark towards Dark Lady and TheStranger, and oh, coincidence, my assumptions are backfired by those two...

FoS: Dark_Lady_Shaiann and TheStranger

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Looks like the more I open my trap, the more I am suspected...

Unvote

This 'go slow' thing has gone on long enough. A think there have been enough arguements flying around for people to know what they want to do. If not, you need to start asking question. Now it just seems like your hesitating. I wonder why.

Damn, this is ridiculous. I did start something "fresh" for the sake of the game, and I get angry eyes in return...

Umm both DLS and TSPN have already voted each other for a decent period of (real) time today. They also openly demanded votes. There would be nothing suspicious if 2 more voted at that point.

You're incriminating yourself, here. The more your vote stays without a lynch, the more you're suspected, obviously. It's simple mathematical logic, I did not invent anything. The conspiracy turns more towards Dark Lady / TheStranger pair. I made the same remark towards Dark Lady and TheStranger, and oh, coincidence, my assumptions are backfired by those two...

FoS: Dark_Lady_Shaiann and TheStranger

So...what does this have to do with your vote on TSPN? It almost looks to me like you hadn't realized that I had unvoted and threw that vote down with no reason figuring you wouldn't need one.

Vote: Joubert

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

As thestranger argues, DLS cannot be scum. Either I am scum (and I'm not), or joubert and charms are.

Unvote, vote joubert.

[Charms86]

Unvote, Vote: Joubert

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Not really sure why I bothered to make a case there. Habit, I guess.

[BrianMcQueso]

That's a

lynch

!

The scum pile on to Joubert, the friendly town

Doctor

. The town, realizing their mistake too late, get killed by the scummies, and all of Mount Excitement is doomed! In case it wasn't excitingly obvious at this point, the mafia was TheSweatpantsNinja and Charms86, and Dark_Lady_Shaiann was the cop.

[Joubert]

Now that is fast...
You should be happy now, as the game was "slowing down"...

[Joubert]

By the way, thanks Brian for the funny flavor...

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Damnit!!! Why did I do that?!?!?!?! *cries*

[TheStranger]

The way I see it, all three town are responsible for the loss. DLS for voting poorly, Joubert for acting scummy enough to make DLS vote him, and I for failing to remind everyone what a poor choice it would be to vote anyone besides DLS or TSPN.

I don't think the scum played much better however. Even with daytalk I thought they were fairly obvious.

One thing about this game is simply that people are unpredictable, and you never know how it can swing. Nothing is sure.

Overall good game.