Mafia 69: noXkill - Game over!

[cicero]

First comment: The sorcerors arent lying. That would make too many wolves. (And you didnt even factor in my role.)

[Twomz]

I think your second setup is the most likely one (there wouldn't be a backup wolfsbane). It is also still possible for a cop or seer to be around, but I would think they would have come out by now unless they have just had really bad luck picking out targets (all innocent and/or killed at night).

And I'm working on a meta-theory. First person that posts is the scum.

My meta-theory on the subject is the first person that posts is the first person that saw the thread up >.>

Someone has to post, and there is a percentage chance that it is scum, but since if the scum outnumber the town they win (except with two scum groups of course, but I still doubt we are at that level now) it is always more likely that TOWN will be the first to post.... noob.

[Twomz]

EBWOP:

Yes, and Cicero's role as well on the first setup... still think there might be another set of roles out there, else there is a LOT of townies in this game.

[cicero]

twenty person game. Normal number of scum = five.

[Kison]

I forgot you had claimed BV, Cicero. My bad.

[curiouskarmadog]

Whome was a nurse, but still didn’t believe the sorcerer claims. Dumbass.

We are still debating and doubting the sorcerer claims, jesus. Now Kison forgot Cicero’s claim…what are his scenarios?

Going back to reread.

[Peers]

Wow. Certainly wasn't expecting that. I thought the man was scum... I guess it's true, docs tend to act the most scummy. His remarks about the sorcerers even after we'd decided they were probably telling the truth made him stand out a little too much.

I guess I can't offer much today, so that means I'm probably y'all's prime target... but let me say that I had narrowed it down to three possibilities. WhoMe, for his sorceror-attitude; CA, who got replaced and a wolf-kill -still- happened, so he's town; and Kison... and his most recent game-status-setup-guess post reminds me exactly of my behavior in other games as an SK, so I'd put some pressure on him...

Vote: Kison

Someone knows too much and is trying to get people to think they know something else...

[cicero]

Why did you not go for Twomz? It makes me think he's mafia now.

[TheHermit]

I'm a little curious why the hell everybody is following a mafia around... I guess I'll find the answer in the read-through. All I'm going to say for now is, why are you trusting these guys? Their stated mission is to kill us all, and we're getting dangerously close to LyLo. Might be getting time to start lynching the mafia, know what I mean?

Anyway, I've got a lot to read through if I wanna catch up. But MAN, this setup's strange.

[ooba]

Well , the best move is to lynch peers today - i do not want to take chances on any other person(Kison,Twomz) who could be a possible townie .. But let us have some discussion first before Lynching him ..

a) Who do you guys think is the last wolf? (Assuming 3 of them)
b) How many mafia do you think there are in the game? (do you really believe peers claim of cops and godfather)
c) Who do you think are the remaining mafia apart from peers?

I can't answer a and c right now without a re-read but i think peers is lying about godfather and 2 mafia because then that would mean we have a cop role for a single mafia member which does not make sense ..

And with regard to setup , here's what i think

Scum (6)
~~~~~~
Wolf x 3
Mafia x 3

Anti Wolf (3)
~~~~~~~~
Wolfsbane
Sorceror x 2

Anti Mafia (3)
~~~~~~~~~
Bulletproof vest
Doctor
Nurse

and 8 townies

Seems pretty balanced to me ...

[ZONEACE]

So we think there isnt any RB or Cop? Interesting. I hadn't considered the possibility of neither of those roles being in this game. Im used to games this size having them.


With that said I'm still suspicious of Cicero's claim. Simply because of its verifiableness. Especially since it came out while we were coming up with who we wanted the mafia to test people. MEh, im probably just overanalysing the timing.

My main suspect is Kison. Again, the extreme lurking really irks me.

I was suspicious of CA as well, but the likely hood of him being a wolf is pretty much non-existant with him being replaced and there still being a wolf kill. So if he is scum he is mafia.

so with that.

BIG FOS Kison

Medium FOS CA/TheHermit

small fos Cicero

Vote Peers

[Kison]

I got bored of this game.

It's fun now.

Get over it.

[ooba]

Here's something that might help (assuming BV claim is true)

Karen (11) -

Flyinghawk

, ChocolateAttack ,

WhoMe?

, Twomz ,

Peers

,

Cephrir

, ZONEACE ,

Karen

,

UltimaAvalon

,

Tarhalindur

,

theopor_COD

Thorn(9) - Kison ,

WhoMe?

,

davidangelsummers

, Kanaga ,

cicero

,

Tarhalindur

,

Peers

,

ooba

, ZONEACE

Cephrir (9) -

curiouskarmadog

,

WhoMe?

,

davidangelsummers

, Twomz ,

dybeck

, Kanaga ,

ooba

,

Peers

,

Flyinghawk

curiouskarmadog Near lynch(7) - ZONEACE , Kanaga ,

Flyinghawk

, Twomz ,

Peers

,

Tarhalindur

,

curiouskarmadog

Tarhalindur

( 8 ) -

Peers

,

ooba

,

curiouskarmadog

, Kanaga ,

WhoMe?

,

Flyinghawk

, ZONEACE ,

Tarhalindur

davidangelsummers

(7) -

Peers

,

WhoMe?

,

cicero

, Kison , Kanaga ,

davidangelsummers

, ZONEACE

[WhoMe?]

Bah, go town!

[TheHermit]

Following catching up, these are the people I suspect most.

Peers: Claimed scum. Really, what else is there to say?

cicero: Post 1091 he completely screws up. When someone accuses him of being scum, he claims that "your wolfie teeth" will find his neck shortly. Hear that? He's not concerned about a mafia kill hitting him at all. And why shouldn't he be? Obviously, because he's mafia. And isn't his claim so convenient? A built-in reason why he'd never get nightkilled... ignoring that two sorcerers who go even-odd is a LOT weaker than a doc/nurse combo and thus is in less need of an NK immune role. This guy is scum.

ZONEACE: Comes across scummy as hell during ckd's bandwagon incident. I'm thinking he's the last wolf.

Kison: Serial lurker. Stops lurking and calls the game "fun" since mafia (his team, I'm thinking) have a good shot at winning now.

I think it's pretty clear that Peers should be today's lynch. Since Peers has been lying his ass off, I don't take him at his word that there is only a two-person mafia. Two mafia versus a BPV and a doctor/nurse combo? Bull. I don't think we're going to get any useful information out of him today, and unfortunately for him his lifespan is measured in a list of names.

Vote: Peers

Also, WTF wolves? I'd like to ask them why they decided to shred WhoMe? last night. As Cicero mentioned sorcs were the obvious play, especially since there is almost zero chance of them being lying wolves now.

[Dead Rikimaru]

During the Fascist period in Italy, Cesare Mori, prefect of Palermo, used special powers granted to him to prosecute the Mafia, forcing many Mafiosi to flee abroad or risk being jailed. Many of the Mafiosi who escaped fled to the United States, among them Joseph Bonanno, nicknamed Joe Bananas, who came to dominate the U.S. branch of the Mafia. However, when Mori started to persecute the Mafiosi involved in the Fascist hierarchy, he was removed, and the Fascist authorities proclaimed that the Mafia had been defeated. Though the mafia was weakened, it had not been defeated as claimed.

FIRST VOTECOUNT

Peers

(3) - Twomz , ZONEACE , TheHermit

Twomz

(1) - cicero

Kison

(1) - Peers

Not voting

(5): ooba , Kison , IH , curiouskarmadog , Kanaga

Needed for a lynch: 6 votes
Negotiable deadline: 30 days

If by deadline no one has 6 votes player with more votes is lynched
If two players have same number of votes lynch is decided by duel

[cicero]

Hermit, I'm the Bulletproof Vest. Mafia cannot kill me. That's why I'm not worried about them.

[curiouskarmadog]

Well, one of the things we have seemed to have forgot is that we wanted to eliminate one of the scum groups first to lower the amount of kills we will endure during the night.

I believe we have 4 scum total (1 wolf and 3 mafia). It is in our best interest to finish off the wolves today.

Vote zoneace

I think that this is our last wolf. If he is not a wolf, he is most definitely mafia.

He constantly voted for me in the beginning for absolutely no reason. After ooba and I claimed, he wanted to hang us and actively pushed. After Peers claimed mafia, he still pushed that ooba and I were the better lynch even voted for us right after the Tar lynch before we got any information from Peers. Wonder why he was so scared of us, versus mafia? Either because he is mafia or he is scared of our blocking powers (wolf)

He has been on every townie lynch. He was the last to jump on DAS’s lynch. Yesterday here is wonderful gem.

I would support a Kison lynch over a Peers lynch because honestly, we have a greater possibility of gaining useful info from a KNOWN mafia member than from an unknown player who's barely playing. Not participating is a detriment to the town.

Peers (who is admitted mafia) provided us with a name of a wolf (DAS). Zoneace doesn’t want to lynch either, he prefers to push a lynch on Kison. WTF?

He was the second to last on the Tar lynch, before Tar self hammered.

He is quick to lynch all the other townie. He was quick to throw his vote on me almost every day. Yet it took him forever to vote for DAS and Tar. Ask yourself why..

[ooba]

Assuming we do lynch Peers today ...

Night : 2 Mafia , 1 Wolf , 6 Town
Day : 2 Mafia , 1 Wolf , 4 Town (Worst case scenario - 2 town kills)

Assuming we target someone else who happens to

a) MAFIA (is the same as above except for the fact that we know peers is mafia too)

b) WOLF

Night : 3 Mafia , 6 Town
Day : 3 Mafia , 5 Town

c) INNOCENT

Night : 3 Mafia , 1 Wolf , 5 Town
Day : 3 Mafia , 1 Wolf , 3 Town (Worst case Scenario - 2 town kills)

So unless we are sure we are lynching scum , its not in our best interests to lynch anybody apart from Peers .

But the best case scenario for town right now is to lynch the lone wolf .. But how sure are you that Zoneace is the lone wolf?

[TheHermit]

Hermit, I'm the Bulletproof Vest. Mafia cannot kill me. That's why I'm not worried about them.

*slaps himself in the forehead*

Of course. Right. Durr.

This is why I shouldn't post at 4 AM.

[curiouskarmadog]

So unless we are sure we are lynching scum , its not in our best interests to lynch anybody apart from Peers .

But the best case scenario for town right now is to lynch the lone wolf .. But how sure are you that Zoneace is the lone wolf?

dammit

I am sure he is scum, but I am not that sure he is the wolf.

unvote

that being said, I was certian Cephrir was scum too.

ooba, your thoughts on ZA?

[curiouskarmadog]

ZA here is a question for you

after ooba and I were not killed after we claimed you thought we had to be scum.

now that Cicero has claimed BV and the wolves did not kill him..your thoughts on cicero.

Also ZA...I would like you to finish these sentences.


"I think the lone wolf is..."
"I think the mafia scum group is..."

[Peers]

Why did you not go for Twomz? It makes me think he's mafia now.

Because nobody's been listening to him. He's been on me like white on rice, but nobody has listened to a thing he said -- so to me, he's harmless. Besides, a lone wolf wouldn't be so blatent in trying to get a mafioso killed like that.

Ooba has a good analysis in 1268. His numbers are a bit off, but let's use them.

You lynch me today, there'll be two night kills tonight (since the Mafia have no more reason to hunt wolves for you guys), that puts you thinking it's LYLO with 3 scum to 4 town. And it's a horrible LYLO 'cause if you hit a mafia, you think there's another one left... two more night kills makes it 2 scum, 2 town. Of course, if you think I'm telling the truth, you'll risk this because it'll -really- be 2 scum to 5 town and only -possibly- LYLO.

If you lynch the last wolf tonight, then it's 3 (realy, 2) Mafia and 6 (really 7) Town. My boys kill a town, you lynch me the next day, my boys kill a town again, and we reach 2 (really, 1) and 4 (really, 5) town. Personally, I'm willing to try those odds, and it's the town's best bet to survive.

If you lynch a townie today, then it's 3 (really, 2) Mafia, 1 Wolf, and 5 (really 6) Town, dropping down to 4/5 Town and a possible endgame if you -really- think there's three Mafia. Which, hey, I could be lying.

But ask yourselves: Why is Kison finding the game fun again? Because his wolf-brothers who kept outvoting him on target choice are gone and he can name his own kills? I think so...

[ooba]

So unless we are sure we are lynching scum , its not in our best interests to lynch anybody apart from Peers .

But the best case scenario for town right now is to lynch the lone wolf .. But how sure are you that Zoneace is the lone wolf?

dammit

I am sure he is scum, but I am not that sure he is the wolf.

unvote

that being said, I was certian Cephrir was scum too.

ooba, your thoughts on ZA?

Well , i just went back and read ZA's posts and tar's and DAS's - can't really make much out .. I'm not going for an in depth analysis but few things which stick out ...

1. Tar's claim :

N3 I targeted Peers, and saw him attacked by a werewolf. CKD's claimed N3 protect was not Peers, hence my suspicion that Peers is scum - specifically mafia scum.

Well now, that is quite compelling. Compelling enough to vote peers

Not even an iota of doubt about Tar's claim??

2.He calls out lurkers in Day 1 but adds an addition about tar which seems odd ...

People who lurk, and don't add useful things to the game are not helping the town, and thusly should be looked at as suspicious.

others that fall under this are
UltimaAvalon (voted for self, and hasn't added anyhting to the thread)
Honorary Hitchhiker (only 4 posts, still has random vote on, pointing fingers at people that really aren't the target of any suspicion, general lack of substantial helpful posts)
Fernando (though not really any suspicions here, just general lack of participation)


While Tarhalindur's only posted 3 times those posts have been long logical and related to the game and helping the game along so thats why s/he (no gender noted so sorry about that). isn't on the above list.

3.He attacks DAS on day 2 - calls him very scummy - gives him a big FOS but does not do anything after that or put him in the limelight again ..

Wait, I REEK of scum, but you're unwilling to unvote him yourself???? How does that make sense, If you'd don't want him lynched then YOU unvote him yourself. Could you play both sides a LITTLE harder there? Why is it ok for you to have a vote on him, but the rest of us can't have a vote on him for the same reason as you? that's ridiculous. Green Day has given us NO REASON to not vote him, He's had AMPLE oppurtunities to defend himself and instead he has made useless posts. Seems to me like he's stalling so he can think up a fake claim, and it sounds like you want to help him stall but just incase he cant come up with anyhting good you can say "hey, i was always there voting for him so don't look at me as scum"


Big FOS Davidangel that makes NO SENSE AND SOUNDS SCUMMY.

4. Other general stuff - an interaction with DAS about his avatar , he makes the distinction between mafia/wolf on his very second post in the game ..

So does that mean I'm sure ZA is a wolf? No - but looking at his posts raised him a few points in the wolf meter ..

And by the way if we do lynch zoneace and he turns out to be mafia - thats good for the town too .. A better scenario than lynching peers ..

Again the question is : Are we willing to take the risk to lynch him and possibly put us at a very good position at the cost of a mislynch which would be disastorous to the town?

And the game needs more participation from some of the others - like IH who hasn't posted at all in a while ..

And i do not think we should end the day before every living player answers the 2 questions ..

"I think the lone wolf is..."
"I think the mafia scum group is..."

[Peers]

"I think the lone wolf is..."
"I think the mafia scum group is..."

I think the lone wolf is Kison, because the game is suddenly more interesting to him.

I -know- who the Mafia pairing is, but I'm only going to tell you half of it: Me. The rest, you gotta work for.