I want to finish off my PBPAs (TH and MoS remaining) before I make full comment on the latest stuff.
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Trojan Horse
I never did a PBPA of Trojan. For this, I will go from the end of Pwayne's PBPA on TH.
1295: Thinks Oman Pwayne is a "legitimate possibility". He wants to take a closer look at me.
1297: "Good point" - noting that Oman had given townie brownies to CKD and MoS
1306: He is working on a PBPA of me
1312: He tells me to do Tar's PBPA
1314: PBPA of me.
Conclusions: Let me just say that if vollkan is scum, he is sure hiding any connections between himself and his teammate very well. My scumdar is calling him protown all the way; and yet, because my scumdar has been proven very wrong already, I can't help having some doubts. I may be fooled.
1338: Says that Oman's attempt to make Tar claim CR was worth a shot
1339: Thinks there is "scant chance" of Tar being mafia and that "he deserves the victory (and an Academy award) for his performance at the end of day 1." Oman is now his top suspect because tyhess and MoS were already NKed. Asks Tar for a scumdar.
1375: We see TH using the "broken scumdar" line again here. "I suspected them all at some point, but only one turned out to be a bad guy (and he was the cult recruiter, not a scum)." Frankly, I find this akin to the 'newbie defence', though the newbie defence is occasionally legitimate. This is not. Says he has often watched people arguing and found it a mutual nulltell, stating that it is true that a case could be made on anyone. In response to be telling him to stop using the broken scumdar as an excuse for not scumhunting, he says: "Alright, I'll stop making excuses. But it's the truth." Admits that he was inconsistently emotional at the giving into pressure thing. Doubts Tar is scum.
1385: Comments that Oman has been the #1 vote-hopper. His scumdar is:
1) Oman
T-2) Vollkan
T-2) theo
T-2) Pwayne
T-3) Tar
1387: Says most of Oman's votes were reasonable, but inquires about the FA hammer
1398: Is liking the possibility of Oman being scum with Tar
1408: Explains that he suspects Oman by elimination. He hasn't seen anything scummy from me but "I have doubts about my scumdar". Thinks Tar is either townie cult or "extremely brazen" scum, though he says the scum is unlikely. That leaves Oman, Pwayne and MoS and since Oman has been "moderately scummy" throughout, Oman becomes the top suspect. "I'm going back and forth between Oman-pwayne and Oman-theo/MoS." Suggests that Oman distanced against theo on D1 and may have been bussing Pwayne around the "lynch vanilla" point. However, he thinks Oman-MoS is most likely. Something very interesting to note here is the fact that in just the previous post he thought Oman was likely scum with Tar but, all of a sudden, this changes, with no explanation. He also states he is thinking about who the vig is.
1410: No lynch is apparently a bad idea because we have "TWO chances to nail our first scum; the lynch today, and the vig kill tonight. If we no lynch, we lose one of those chances."
1416: Thinks that having a lynch and vigging is preferable to having just a lynch, and that "just a lynch" is what we will have that night, since no vig kill.
We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.
1417: Suggests publically discussing the vig kill.
1420: Thinks we should capitalise on the vig's ability. "True, a no lynch (followed by a no vig) does improve our chances of hitting scum with our next lynch. But it also gives up a chance for the vig to shoot a scum." Says he will take some time to think, but is not likely convinceable.
1426: Thinks we need to lynch someone on the basis of there being a CR. However, he says that there should be no vigging if we lynch scum.
1428: Tar is the most likely CR. If scum can work out who the vig is, they will kill the vig. Thinks Tar can't be the vig, based on his antics.
1430: Points out my cross-kills error
1439: "If we mislynch today, a successful vig kill tonight allows us to still have a chance to win. (We can win a 1:1:1 situation if our protown player is the vig.) After no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, all a vig kill can do is give us a chance to draw. That's the difference."
1440: Thinks he and MoS are "both hypocrites" and thus are "even", because of their differing risk assessments. Odd phrasing there; strikes me as neutralisation.
1455: Is shocked that Oman was the vig. Says town has lost if there is a CR. Says nobody should vote until we agree on the lynchee. Suggests mass-claim.
1456: MegaFoSes me for the No Lynch vote.
1462: Suggests that each person picks the next person to claim
1470: Claims vanilla
1472: Is "finally starting to see the light". Asks MoS who he suspected.
1474: Is excited about the game and promises his case forthcoming, given that MoS had said nothing.
1475: Most recent. I will address this at the bottom.
Conclusions thus far: The "broken scumdar" thing seems to be his panacea for any suggestion that he is not properly scumhunting, and I don't like it. It isn't a defence; it is an excuse, and a bad one at that. Also
very
interesting is the fact that he completely drops the suggestion of Oman/Tar with no explanation. I don't know what to make of his opposition to the No Lynch. It could be scummy, or it could be a nullity, since it was a fairly complex matter. His argument was wrong, but I don't think it was necessarily scummy. The "seeing the light" stuff I dislike and I do think it is scummy (building up to a dramatic conclusion...) but more on that below. Overall, it should be clear that I have some serious issues with TH.
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MoS
1409: Opens up with a scumdar
Oman - VERY scummy. I can't believe he's not dead yet (almost).
vollkan - probably not scum. However, I can't believe the scum haven't killed him yet, when I think about it.
Tarhalindur (r. Dr. Blackstrike) - in the middle, too much WIFOM surrounding him.
pwayne66 - probably oman's scumpartner
Trojan Horse - in the middle, leaning scum if I'm wrong about my top two suspects.
Suggests and votes No Lynch
1413: Asks about the "NK Tar" thing
1414: Vig is a horrible crutch on which to rely to win the game. Affirms support for the no lynch and FoSes Tar
1419: No Lynch is better in terms of probability, with the only risk being loss of vig. Notes that TH is being optimistic about the vig's ability. Says (in response to TH's suggestion of vig direction) that we direct the vig by posting our suspicions and that should be it. Agrees with my numbers analysis of why No Lynch is better. "Interrocroc strikes again!"
1425: Doesn't trust himself to hit scum as vig and is more convinced that Oman is scum for suggesting that the vig will likely succeed because of the fact that MoS and myself are in this game. Thinks Oman and Tar are scum, with Pwayne as a likely possibility.
1427: Questions TH about his opposition to No Lynch
1437: Proves No Lynch is better with probability. Thinks Tar would not likely have been recruited due to the WIFOM of it. Thinks Tar would have pulled his antics as vig/scum.
1438: Is even more convinced Tar is scum based on his mass-claim suggestion
1441: Affirms that No Lynch has a much higher chance of success. It fits that Oman would also support a massclaim. Shrugs off the fact that theo did so. Says that not everybody who supports a mass claim is scum.
1442: Fixes grammar error
1445: Says Tar is Oman's scumbuddy
1447: Asks that we keep voting No Lynch
1449: Oman's off-hand support of vigging is further evidence of scumminess
1451: Says Oman's offhand comment has the effect of causing the vig to trust Oman more than MoS and may lose the game.
1458: Thinks scum got lucky with Oman and that they did not know he was vig. However, he thinks Oman's death is a lifeline because Oman was the number 1 suspect. Asks a whole set of questions.
1460: "Yes, Yes, Yes, aaaaaannndddd yes! However, not for all the reasons you might think. =P"
1465: Claim dice.
1466: Gives claim order
1471: Claims vanilla
1473: "No, Almost, Yes."
1477: Part of the recent stuff, so I will do this at the bottom.
Conclusions: Well, Theo was scummy D1, got much better around the time when he made PBPAs and now that MoS has come in, it seems like Theo/MoS has gotten less scummy still. My biggest issue is the way he shrugs off the thing about the mass claim suggestion. It fits with tar and Oman being scum, but, hypocritically, it means nothing for himself because he knows his own alignmnent. Despite this, I find myself in agreement with MoS on most things. Overall, I think MoS is probably pro-town (or, at least, the most unlikely scum) but I do worry that this may just be the result of him being an adept player. Theo's D1 behaviour still troubles me, despite the improvements.
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Now, a new scumdar ranking:
Tarhalindur - 70%
Pwayne66 - 70%
Trojan Horse - 75%
Mastermind of Sin - 55%
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Comments on the latest posts
Beginning with TH in 1475:
TH wrote: I don't think it was luck at all. You know what I think? They probably have an information role on their team; perhaps they have a mafia rolecop, or a mafia tracker, or a mafia watcher. In any case, they investigated Oman night 2, and they got some information which led them to conclude that Oman was the vig. So they killed him last night. That makes much more sense than the suggestion that they just decided to kill the scummiest protown player, and they just happened to hit the vig.
For the mafia to have a power role with an investigative ability, that would balance things against town hideously, given that we only had two power roles.
Now, put yourself in a mafia member's shoes. Day 3 has just dawned. There are 6 players left: yourself, your scummate, the vig, and 3 other players. You just found out that Oman is the vig. As it is, the town has three chances left to pick off you and your scummate: two lynches, and one vig kill. If two of the three succeed, you're toast. You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?
How about suggesting a no lynch?
A perfect plan. It's a suggestion that you can make without looking scummy, since a reasonable case can be made that a no lynch helps the town. (I didn't buy MoS's case for a no lynch, but at the time, I didn't think he was scummy for making it.) Once the no lynch is made, the vig will obviously not kill the following night (that would be stupid). So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.
Nice post hoc attack. No Lynch was the best option yesterday. True, it carried the risk of the vig being killed, but it was the better option than a lynch. You still haven't explained why the case for No Lynch was flawed. Instead, your logic seems to be that because the vig got killed, therefore No Lynch was not the best option and the people supporting it are scummy.
Moreover, as I notice MoS has already said, it is a ridiculous scum plan because it would suit scumMoS better to have Oman vig one of his suspects after a mislynch.
TH wrote: Ah, MoS. So slick. So sneaky. You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy. So now I'm glad that we went along with your plan and no lynched. Gave us the chance figure out that YOU'RE scum.
Okay, you try to paint MoS as being conniving and stuff by NOT taking an option that would make him look protown and you look scummy. Mind explaining how that works?
Also, I don't quite get why this proves MoS is scum. I must have missed that.
TH wrote: So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.
Again with the argument that Tar is unlikely to be scum. It is a viable gambit to make. He has managed to evade all suspicion so far by simply being ignored as a vanilla/CR. And you suspect me because I voted No Lynch, despite the fact that No Lynch was the better option. Again, you are clearly suggesting that the fact that the worst case scenario arose therefore proves that the No Lynch plan itself was flawed and that its proponents (here, MoS and myself) were suspicious.
This seems to be the entirety of your case's basis and, frankly, it's a load of BS. All you have really said is "MoS and, most likely, vollkan are scum because they pushed something which I never agreed with (for no actual reason other than gut feeling it seems) and which allowed the scum to NK the vig."
Now,
MOS in 1477
MoS wrote:
Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!
You've also noted the dramatic appeal with the "finally seeing the light" thing. Could you clarify what you mean about the OMGUS thing; I just don't follow you there.
MoS wrote:
Not to mention that you are completely ignoring the statistics here. With a lynch yesterday, there is a 66% chance of lynching town, which is a 66% chance of pushing the game towards a win for scum. Then, the vig has only a 50% chance of hitting the right target, which is a 50% chance of scum winning. With the no lynch plan, the scum only have a 60% chance of avoiding lynch today, and a 50% chance tomorrow when we lynch correctly. The numbers are still in our favor.
These numbers seem right. As such, this basically guts the whole of TH's "case".
TH wrote:
Yes, I did want to see who you suspected before I made my case. Was hoping you might give me something that would link you to your scummate. You gave me nothing. Smart move. We'll have to settle for lynching you and agonizing over who your scummate is.
Your tone has really changed all of a sudden. You were so lacking in confidence before but now you are just throwing out "smart move" and assertions of conspiracy with no basis. Someone's getting cocky and aggressive towards endgame...
TH wrote:
And as for the point about play balance: a vig is a strong role, don't forget. One lucky shot, and the scum could have been cut in half just like that. Makes sense that the mod would give the scum SOME power role to help in locating the vig.
Yes, but usually the town only has one scumgroup to contend with. Here, with the possibility of two, the town is at an immediate disadvantage so the vig is almost necessary as a balancer.
TH wrote: I didn't buy Tar's claim when he first made it. I definitely considered the possibility that he was scum trying to act townish. Also, I wasn't happy about his self-vote and immediate unvote that he made when he claimed. But when it looked like Tar might be lynched, he voted for himself AGAIN, saying that he'd rather have a recruitable townie (himself) lynched than a non-recruitable one (Kakeng). That's a bit too bold a move for a scum to pull off. If he's your scummate, then you two deserve to win.
It isn't too bold. It's a brilliant gambit. Moreover, you are still not addressing Tar as a valid candidate for suspicion. Now you are just saying that if he is scum, he "deserves to win". Tar could well be scum as much as anyone else.
Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.
Prove No Lynch was the worser option. Then come back and make this accusation.
TH wrote:
Wrong. You're an experienced player, MoS. You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.
No.
Yesterday it was 4:2.
Oman vig claims. ScumMoS counters. I, for one, would most likely believe MoS.
Now, if we decided not to lynch either, we would stand the likelihood of mislynch, making it 3:2. Mafia NK Oman. Oman NKs scumMoS.
That makes it 3:1 with no vig.
In contrast, if we lynched the scumvig it goes to 4:1. MafiaNK of the vig makes it 3:1 with no vig. Exactly the same.
Overall: Trojan's "case", which he has said he is ready to vote on, is founded on an unproven assertion: That No Lynch was anti-town. His sudden shift in tone, as well as his emotional appeals, have made him significantly more suspicious to me.