Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Trojan Horse]

Mod edit:

Still 0 votes

Alright. It's time to lay all my cards on the table, and make my big case as to who I think is scum. Please excuse the length of this post; it's a lot of words, but I have a lot to say.

When day 4 started, I was confused as to why Oman was selected as the mafia's nightkill target. Why kill off the player who was the most suspected at that point? Why not get rid of someone not so suspicious? Most likely, they chose Oman since they thought he was most likely to be the vig. (If they knew he was the vig, he'd be the obvious kill choice, despite how scummy he looked to everyone else.) But how could they believe that Oman was the vig? He hadn't dropped any vig tells, as far as I could see. Was it just luck that they hit the vig, as MoS suggested in this post?

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking.

I don't think it was luck at all. You know what I think? They probably have an information role on their team; perhaps they have a mafia rolecop, or a mafia tracker, or a mafia watcher. In any case, they investigated Oman night 2, and they got some information which led them to conclude that Oman was the vig. So they killed him last night. That makes much more sense than the suggestion that they just decided to kill the scummiest protown player, and they just happened to hit the vig.

Now, put yourself in a mafia member's shoes. Day 3 has just dawned. There are 6 players left: yourself, your scummate, the vig, and 3 other players. You just found out that Oman is the vig. As it is, the town has three chances left to pick off you and your scummate: two lynches, and one vig kill. If two of the three succeed, you're toast. You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

A perfect plan. It's a suggestion that you can make without looking scummy, since a reasonable case can be made that a no lynch helps the town. (I didn't buy MoS's case for a no lynch, but at the time, I didn't think he was scummy for making it.) Once the no lynch is made, the vig will obviously not kill the following night (that would be stupid). So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

It should be obvious now that I think theo/MoS is scum. As a bit of a final note on MoS, I'd like to quote a particular post of his. This is from post 1425, which came during his argument with me over whether we should lynch or no lynch.

Also, mafia would want to lynch today, because that gives them the best chance of winning. There is no way to prevent the vig from killing tonight if we mislynch, because it's the obvious thing. However, by lynching today, the scum have a chance of smoking the vig out in the open with a bandwagon, which means they can kill the vig and hope that the vig misses his 50% chance of hitting scum.

Ah, MoS. So slick. So sneaky. You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy. So now I'm glad that we went along with your plan and no lynched. Gave us the chance figure out that YOU'RE scum.

So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.

(Incidentally, even though I think vollkan is scum, I believe vollkan when he says he didn't realize he was hammering no lynch. I'm sure he honestly missed the 50% rule; otherwise, he wouldn't have voted so quickly after Oman did. I think he was just trying to be #3 on the bandwagon, and have someone else be the hammering vote.)

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

[vollkan]

I now present updated PBPAs of everyone (as in, all posts since the last PBPA on that person ended):

Beginning with Tar and pwayne
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tarhalindur

1333: promises content
1336: CKD must have targeted someone else
1343: asks why theo is being ignored because there is "a pretty strong case against him"; this is based on his focus on cult D1. Seems an exceptionally minimal case, frankly.
1383: Is on uni-related LA
1393: Scumdar:

Vollkan looks very pro-town, especially when I look at his scumdar posts. This is primarily due to him giving lots of what I consider quality analysis (a strong town tell IMO).

Trojan Horse also looks pro-town for much the same reasons - he posts lots of analysis to go with information. The main strike against him is his indecisiveness early in D1 (wishy-washiness is usually a scumtell), but his later actions lead me to believe that this is the result of inexperience instead of being scum.

I need to look over Pwayne again before I decide on him. On the one hand, upon quick inspection he seems to focus on the cult more than everyone else, which I consider a mafia tell for much the same reasons that focusing on one mafia group in a game with multiple families is a scumtell. On the other hand, his D2 analysis feels genuine.

I have no read on Theopor - he lacks content, but this is understandable to me as he has had limited access for some time. I have first-hand experience as to how hard catching up is when you have limited access. I haven't checked for all of the good tells yet, though.

Oman is probably scum - from what I'm seeing, he's posted a lot of information but very little analysis, especially good analysis. This is scummy - I've seen many scum attempt to use information in the place of analysis in their attempts to blend in (no example atm - the best example is in an ongoing game).

1411: Thinks MoS's plan lowers our chance of winning, based on the fact there isa vig and on probability. Thinks MoS is "moderately scummy", because he had no read on theo (?) and suggests that MoS's plan's potential for being anti-town may translate to scumminess.
1435: HoSes me for changing my tune, though I still don't know what he meant.

Conclusions: Well, not much to comment on. Anyway, the attack on MoS with regard to the D1 activity seems very weak. He says "especially" the D1 thing, implying there is a more substantive case, which is odd given he later says he has little read on theo and is still looking for the good tells. Similarly, in the attack on the No Lynch plan he just suggests it could be bad

if

the numbers were crunched. Finally, the attack on me at the end seems strange, but it is possible he just misread me, given that it makes no sense. Overall, this is a continuation of the "strangeness" I noted earlier, and makes me more concerned about the prospect of this being a scum gambit.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Pwayne66

1340: Continues TH PBPA and concludes that he wasn't as scummy as previously thought. Votes Oman because "He needs to squirm abit. He is taking his position most suspicious too lightly."
1341: Explains that Theo is at #2 for lurking. Thinks Tar and myself are pro-town or cult.
1342: Asks me if I have anything to add to a post commenting on TH
1344: Asks Tar to explain his case on theo
1347: Oman is suspect by elimination. Thinks I am scum with Oman. It is here that he first suggests I have a double-standard towards Oman; which I find odd because all I said was that I wanted to see a case from Pwayne and that Pwayne's breaking the ice was not necessarily a scumtell (this latter was to Oman). Pwayne says I gave Oman a pat-on-the-back for his expressed intention to vote Pwayne, when I said nothing of the sort. Wonders why TH has increased in suspicion between my scumdars. Alters his own scumdar to put me on equal rank with theo and tar, because of my apparent kid-gloving to Oman.
1349: Is looking for a full case on Oman
1351: Angry I defended Oman
1354: Asks me to clarify what my issue is
1356: Wrongly states I have put him in a Catch-22. Also says Oman is neither scumhunting nor trying to escape suspicion. As I said at the time, Oman could only rebut accusations if an actual case was made.
1358: Questions Oman and I.
1364: Thinks I am scum with Oman for giving him a "playful swat" when he voted TH. As I showed in 1368, my responses to both pwayne and Oman were equal in harshness and tone.
1366: Asks whether Oman is just waiting idly for me to defend him
1370: wants theo prodded
1372: "oops I knew that"
1373: Explains that his "all ears" comment was just to try and get Tar to post
1377: Asks Oman to detail TH's scumtells
1382: worries about prospect of replacements being unavailable
1384: "So no thought here tar?"
1497: "Thanks MoS!"
1434: "You guys are making my head hurt. Let me read and get a grasp. Numbers and probability are not my strong point..." Interesting; a confusion post.
1457: Suggests claim
1459: Asks whether my No Lynch vote was scummy
1467: claims townie
1468: clarifies that he meant vanilla

Conclusions: My most significant issue with Pwayne (that was not resolved in our debate) is his constant and, as I showed even then, unfounded accusations of me being soft on Oman and was showing a double-standard. Similarly, with the whole Catch-22 thing; it's another baseless attack. Later on he gets a "vague"; making a confusion post and then

asking

whether my vote was scummy. Overall, I really don't like his contrived attacks and he has increased in scumminess.

TH and MoS shall follow tomorrow...as well some comments on TH's latest post.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So we don't have any protown power roles left. Figures. If we're finally going to take down these scum, we'll have to rely on brains and votes only.

Okay. I know that I have been bemoaning my broken scumdar for most of the game. (Ok, for ALL of the game.) But now, I think I'm finally starting to see the light. I'm working on a post which will put all of my arguments together; I'll post it as soon as I'm done. (Won't take much longer.) But in the meantime, I have a question for MoS:

Yes, Yes, Yes, aaaaaannndddd yes! However, not for all the reasons you might think. =P

That was in response to pwayne's question about whether we should massclaim. MoS, care to clarify what those reasons were? Was there someone you suspected, and you were waiting to find out what his claim was? Or was it some other reason?

Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!

Mod edit:

Still 0 votes

Alright. It's time to lay all my cards on the table, and make my big case as to who I think is scum. Please excuse the length of this post; it's a lot of words, but I have a lot to say.

When day 4 started, I was confused as to why Oman was selected as the mafia's nightkill target. Why kill off the player who was the most suspected at that point? Why not get rid of someone not so suspicious? Most likely, they chose Oman since they thought he was most likely to be the vig. (If they knew he was the vig, he'd be the obvious kill choice, despite how scummy he looked to everyone else.) But how could they believe that Oman was the vig? He hadn't dropped any vig tells, as far as I could see. Was it just luck that they hit the vig, as MoS suggested in this post?

Wow. That has got to be the luckiest kill I have ever seen. I do not believe the scum thought he was vig, but wtf were they thinking.

I don't think it was luck at all. You know what I think? They probably have an information role on their team; perhaps they have a mafia rolecop, or a mafia tracker, or a mafia watcher. In any case, they investigated Oman night 2, and they got some information which led them to conclude that Oman was the vig. So they killed him last night. That makes much more sense than the suggestion that they just decided to kill the scummiest protown player, and they just happened to hit the vig.

Funny that you all of a sudden believe the scum had a power role...With there being a cult AND 2 mafia, I wouldn't think the mafia would have much power with only a roleblocker and vig on our side. This suggestion of yours makes so much sense it's pretty clear you're coming with outside information here.

Now, put yourself in a mafia member's shoes. Day 3 has just dawned. There are 6 players left: yourself, your scummate, the vig, and 3 other players. You just found out that Oman is the vig. As it is, the town has three chances left to pick off you and your scummate: two lynches, and one vig kill. If two of the three succeed, you're toast. You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

Except that if I was scum, that would be the most retarded plan ever. If I knew Oman was the vig, I would want him to kill that night after mislynching. Because his top two suspects were

YOU

, Troj, and

Tar

, the person you have so slyly asserted is probably protown based on the ballsy antics he pulled Day 1. Not that you ever consider the fact that mafia claiming vanilla townie baits the cult into failing on a recruit, which helps the mafia. Since there is so much WIFOM over a vanilla townie claim, he's unlikely to get lynched, so he's a horrible cult recruit. But you gloss over all that and act like he's the most likely town player here. Suspicious? I think so.

A perfect plan. It's a suggestion that you can make without looking scummy, since a reasonable case can be made that a no lynch helps the town. (I didn't buy MoS's case for a no lynch, but at the time, I didn't think he was scummy for making it.) Once the no lynch is made, the vig will obviously not kill the following night (that would be stupid). So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

One

more

mislynch? If we didn't no lynch, the game would probably have been over already, from your perspective. Oman would've killed you or Tar, and we probably would've lynched the other one, both of whom you assert are protown. If I was scum, I'd be all over a plan like that.

With or without the no lynch, we're trying to avoid mislynches. However, we have a much better chance of hitting scum now that we know the alignments of you and your scumpartner.

It should be obvious now that I think theo/MoS is scum. As a bit of a final note on MoS, I'd like to quote a particular post of his. This is from post 1425, which came during his argument with me over whether we should lynch or no lynch.

Also, mafia would want to lynch today, because that gives them the best chance of winning. There is no way to prevent the vig from killing tonight if we mislynch, because it's the obvious thing. However, by lynching today, the scum have a chance of smoking the vig out in the open with a bandwagon, which means they can kill the vig and hope that the vig misses his 50% chance of hitting scum.

Ah, MoS. So slick. So sneaky. You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy. So now I'm glad that we went along with your plan and no lynched. Gave us the chance figure out that YOU'RE scum.

Exactly why your theory here is bullshit. Why would I fight

against

a plan that would make me look super-protown? And since I was going to kill him that night anyways, why would it matter if I got him to claim? There's always the chance that he might die anyways. Hell, I could counterclaim him and get him lynched, because he did not look at all like the vig. If I was scum, Oman would've been lynched, and the game would be over already.

Not to mention that you are completely ignoring the statistics here. With a lynch yesterday, there is a 66% chance of lynching town, which is a 66% chance of pushing the game towards a win for scum. Then, the vig has only a 50% chance of hitting the right target, which is a 50% chance of scum winning. With the no lynch plan, the scum only have a 60% chance of avoiding lynch today, and a 50% chance tomorrow when we lynch correctly. The numbers are still in our favor.

So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.

Still pushing the Tar thing really hard for him being protown, but phrasing it carefully with "really doubt", so that it doesn't quite look like an outright conviction. However, you haven't been willing to address arguments that Tar is probably scum, so I'm not buying it.

(Incidentally, even though I think vollkan is scum, I believe vollkan when he says he didn't realize he was hammering no lynch. I'm sure he honestly missed the 50% rule; otherwise, he wouldn't have voted so quickly after Oman did. I think he was just trying to be #3 on the bandwagon, and have someone else be the hammering vote.)

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

And here Trojan uses an appeal to emotion. Nice fallacy.

Troj and Tar are the scum here. It's pretty cut and dried. Wanna see vollkan and pwayne's responses to make sure they aren't scum first, by some miniscule chance of disaster.

[Trojan Horse]

...

That was in response to pwayne's question about whether we should massclaim. MoS, care to clarify what those reasons were? Was there someone you suspected, and you were waiting to find out what his claim was? Or was it some other reason?

Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!

Yes, I did want to see who you suspected before I made my case. Was hoping you might give me something that would link you to your scummate. You gave me nothing. Smart move. We'll have to settle for lynching you and agonizing over who your scummate is.

Funny that you all of a sudden believe the scum had a power role...With there being a cult AND 2 mafia, I wouldn't think the mafia would have much power with only a roleblocker and vig on our side. This suggestion of yours makes so much sense it's pretty clear you're coming with outside information here.

Or, it makes so much sense because I'm right. I "all of a sudden" started believing that the scum had a power role because I realized it's the best explanation for Oman's death. Don't think the scum would have shot the scummiest-looking player if they didn't know he was the vig.

And as for the point about play balance: a vig is a strong role, don't forget. One lucky shot, and the scum could have been cut in half just like that. Makes sense that the mod would give the scum SOME power role to help in locating the vig.

...
You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

Except that if I was scum, that would be the most retarded plan ever. If I knew Oman was the vig, I would want him to kill that night after mislynching. Because his top two suspects were

YOU

, Troj, and

Tar

, the person you have so slyly asserted is probably protown based on the ballsy antics he pulled Day 1.

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

Not that you ever consider the fact that mafia claiming vanilla townie baits the cult into failing on a recruit, which helps the mafia.

I didn't buy Tar's claim when he first made it. I definitely considered the possibility that he was scum trying to act townish. Also, I wasn't happy about his self-vote and immediate unvote that he made when he claimed. But when it looked like Tar might be lynched, he voted for himself AGAIN, saying that he'd rather have a recruitable townie (himself) lynched than a non-recruitable one (Kakeng). That's a bit too bold a move for a scum to pull off. If he's your scummate, then you two deserve to win.

...

So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

One

more

mislynch?

I meant one mislynch in addition to our mislynches earlier in the game.

If we didn't no lynch, the game would probably have been over already, from your perspective. Oman would've killed you or Tar, and we probably would've lynched the other one, both of whom you assert are protown. If I was scum, I'd be all over a plan like that.

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

...

You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy.

...

Exactly why your theory here is bullshit. Why would I fight

against

a plan that would make me look super-protown?

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

Hell, I could counterclaim him and get him lynched, because he did not look at all like the vig. If I was scum, Oman would've been lynched, and the game would be over already.

Wrong. You're an experienced player, MoS. You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

...

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

And here Trojan uses an appeal to emotion. Nice fallacy.

This is the first time all game that I've had any confidence that someone is scum. I can't help but be a little dramatic.

[vollkan]

I want to finish off my PBPAs (TH and MoS remaining) before I make full comment on the latest stuff.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Trojan Horse

I never did a PBPA of Trojan. For this, I will go from the end of Pwayne's PBPA on TH.
1295: Thinks Oman Pwayne is a "legitimate possibility". He wants to take a closer look at me.
1297: "Good point" - noting that Oman had given townie brownies to CKD and MoS
1306: He is working on a PBPA of me
1312: He tells me to do Tar's PBPA
1314: PBPA of me.

Conclusions: Let me just say that if vollkan is scum, he is sure hiding any connections between himself and his teammate very well. My scumdar is calling him protown all the way; and yet, because my scumdar has been proven very wrong already, I can't help having some doubts. I may be fooled.

1338: Says that Oman's attempt to make Tar claim CR was worth a shot
1339: Thinks there is "scant chance" of Tar being mafia and that "he deserves the victory (and an Academy award) for his performance at the end of day 1." Oman is now his top suspect because tyhess and MoS were already NKed. Asks Tar for a scumdar.
1375: We see TH using the "broken scumdar" line again here. "I suspected them all at some point, but only one turned out to be a bad guy (and he was the cult recruiter, not a scum)." Frankly, I find this akin to the 'newbie defence', though the newbie defence is occasionally legitimate. This is not. Says he has often watched people arguing and found it a mutual nulltell, stating that it is true that a case could be made on anyone. In response to be telling him to stop using the broken scumdar as an excuse for not scumhunting, he says: "Alright, I'll stop making excuses. But it's the truth." Admits that he was inconsistently emotional at the giving into pressure thing. Doubts Tar is scum.
1385: Comments that Oman has been the #1 vote-hopper. His scumdar is:
1) Oman
T-2) Vollkan
T-2) theo
T-2) Pwayne
T-3) Tar
1387: Says most of Oman's votes were reasonable, but inquires about the FA hammer
1398: Is liking the possibility of Oman being scum with Tar
1408: Explains that he suspects Oman by elimination. He hasn't seen anything scummy from me but "I have doubts about my scumdar". Thinks Tar is either townie cult or "extremely brazen" scum, though he says the scum is unlikely. That leaves Oman, Pwayne and MoS and since Oman has been "moderately scummy" throughout, Oman becomes the top suspect. "I'm going back and forth between Oman-pwayne and Oman-theo/MoS." Suggests that Oman distanced against theo on D1 and may have been bussing Pwayne around the "lynch vanilla" point. However, he thinks Oman-MoS is most likely. Something very interesting to note here is the fact that in just the previous post he thought Oman was likely scum with Tar but, all of a sudden, this changes, with no explanation. He also states he is thinking about who the vig is.
1410: No lynch is apparently a bad idea because we have "TWO chances to nail our first scum; the lynch today, and the vig kill tonight. If we no lynch, we lose one of those chances."
1416: Thinks that having a lynch and vigging is preferable to having just a lynch, and that "just a lynch" is what we will have that night, since no vig kill.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

1417: Suggests publically discussing the vig kill.
1420: Thinks we should capitalise on the vig's ability. "True, a no lynch (followed by a no vig) does improve our chances of hitting scum with our next lynch. But it also gives up a chance for the vig to shoot a scum." Says he will take some time to think, but is not likely convinceable.
1426: Thinks we need to lynch someone on the basis of there being a CR. However, he says that there should be no vigging if we lynch scum.
1428: Tar is the most likely CR. If scum can work out who the vig is, they will kill the vig. Thinks Tar can't be the vig, based on his antics.
1430: Points out my cross-kills error
1439: "If we mislynch today, a successful vig kill tonight allows us to still have a chance to win. (We can win a 1:1:1 situation if our protown player is the vig.) After no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, all a vig kill can do is give us a chance to draw. That's the difference."
1440: Thinks he and MoS are "both hypocrites" and thus are "even", because of their differing risk assessments. Odd phrasing there; strikes me as neutralisation.
1455: Is shocked that Oman was the vig. Says town has lost if there is a CR. Says nobody should vote until we agree on the lynchee. Suggests mass-claim.
1456: MegaFoSes me for the No Lynch vote.
1462: Suggests that each person picks the next person to claim
1470: Claims vanilla
1472: Is "finally starting to see the light". Asks MoS who he suspected.
1474: Is excited about the game and promises his case forthcoming, given that MoS had said nothing.
1475: Most recent. I will address this at the bottom.

Conclusions thus far: The "broken scumdar" thing seems to be his panacea for any suggestion that he is not properly scumhunting, and I don't like it. It isn't a defence; it is an excuse, and a bad one at that. Also

very

interesting is the fact that he completely drops the suggestion of Oman/Tar with no explanation. I don't know what to make of his opposition to the No Lynch. It could be scummy, or it could be a nullity, since it was a fairly complex matter. His argument was wrong, but I don't think it was necessarily scummy. The "seeing the light" stuff I dislike and I do think it is scummy (building up to a dramatic conclusion...) but more on that below. Overall, it should be clear that I have some serious issues with TH.
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MoS

1409: Opens up with a scumdar

Oman - VERY scummy. I can't believe he's not dead yet (almost).
vollkan - probably not scum. However, I can't believe the scum haven't killed him yet, when I think about it.
Tarhalindur (r. Dr. Blackstrike) - in the middle, too much WIFOM surrounding him.
pwayne66 - probably oman's scumpartner
Trojan Horse - in the middle, leaning scum if I'm wrong about my top two suspects.

Suggests and votes No Lynch
1413: Asks about the "NK Tar" thing
1414: Vig is a horrible crutch on which to rely to win the game. Affirms support for the no lynch and FoSes Tar
1419: No Lynch is better in terms of probability, with the only risk being loss of vig. Notes that TH is being optimistic about the vig's ability. Says (in response to TH's suggestion of vig direction) that we direct the vig by posting our suspicions and that should be it. Agrees with my numbers analysis of why No Lynch is better. "Interrocroc strikes again!"
1425: Doesn't trust himself to hit scum as vig and is more convinced that Oman is scum for suggesting that the vig will likely succeed because of the fact that MoS and myself are in this game. Thinks Oman and Tar are scum, with Pwayne as a likely possibility.
1427: Questions TH about his opposition to No Lynch
1437: Proves No Lynch is better with probability. Thinks Tar would not likely have been recruited due to the WIFOM of it. Thinks Tar would have pulled his antics as vig/scum.
1438: Is even more convinced Tar is scum based on his mass-claim suggestion
1441: Affirms that No Lynch has a much higher chance of success. It fits that Oman would also support a massclaim. Shrugs off the fact that theo did so. Says that not everybody who supports a mass claim is scum.
1442: Fixes grammar error
1445: Says Tar is Oman's scumbuddy
1447: Asks that we keep voting No Lynch
1449: Oman's off-hand support of vigging is further evidence of scumminess
1451: Says Oman's offhand comment has the effect of causing the vig to trust Oman more than MoS and may lose the game.
1458: Thinks scum got lucky with Oman and that they did not know he was vig. However, he thinks Oman's death is a lifeline because Oman was the number 1 suspect. Asks a whole set of questions.
1460: "Yes, Yes, Yes, aaaaaannndddd yes! However, not for all the reasons you might think. =P"
1465: Claim dice.
1466: Gives claim order
1471: Claims vanilla
1473: "No, Almost, Yes."
1477: Part of the recent stuff, so I will do this at the bottom.

Conclusions: Well, Theo was scummy D1, got much better around the time when he made PBPAs and now that MoS has come in, it seems like Theo/MoS has gotten less scummy still. My biggest issue is the way he shrugs off the thing about the mass claim suggestion. It fits with tar and Oman being scum, but, hypocritically, it means nothing for himself because he knows his own alignmnent. Despite this, I find myself in agreement with MoS on most things. Overall, I think MoS is probably pro-town (or, at least, the most unlikely scum) but I do worry that this may just be the result of him being an adept player. Theo's D1 behaviour still troubles me, despite the improvements.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now, a new scumdar ranking:

Tarhalindur - 70%
Pwayne66 - 70%
Trojan Horse - 75%
Mastermind of Sin - 55%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Comments on the latest posts

Beginning with TH in 1475:

I don't think it was luck at all. You know what I think? They probably have an information role on their team; perhaps they have a mafia rolecop, or a mafia tracker, or a mafia watcher. In any case, they investigated Oman night 2, and they got some information which led them to conclude that Oman was the vig. So they killed him last night. That makes much more sense than the suggestion that they just decided to kill the scummiest protown player, and they just happened to hit the vig.

For the mafia to have a power role with an investigative ability, that would balance things against town hideously, given that we only had two power roles.

Now, put yourself in a mafia member's shoes. Day 3 has just dawned. There are 6 players left: yourself, your scummate, the vig, and 3 other players. You just found out that Oman is the vig. As it is, the town has three chances left to pick off you and your scummate: two lynches, and one vig kill. If two of the three succeed, you're toast. You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

A perfect plan. It's a suggestion that you can make without looking scummy, since a reasonable case can be made that a no lynch helps the town. (I didn't buy MoS's case for a no lynch, but at the time, I didn't think he was scummy for making it.) Once the no lynch is made, the vig will obviously not kill the following night (that would be stupid). So you off the vig, and now it's 3:2. One more mislynch, and you win. Such an awesome plan.

Nice post hoc attack. No Lynch was the best option yesterday. True, it carried the risk of the vig being killed, but it was the better option than a lynch. You still haven't explained why the case for No Lynch was flawed. Instead, your logic seems to be that because the vig got killed, therefore No Lynch was not the best option and the people supporting it are scummy.

Moreover, as I notice MoS has already said, it is a ridiculous scum plan because it would suit scumMoS better to have Oman vig one of his suspects after a mislynch.

Ah, MoS. So slick. So sneaky. You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy. So now I'm glad that we went along with your plan and no lynched. Gave us the chance figure out that YOU'RE scum.

Okay, you try to paint MoS as being conniving and stuff by NOT taking an option that would make him look protown and you look scummy. Mind explaining how that works?

Also, I don't quite get why this proves MoS is scum. I must have missed that.

So, who's MoS's partner? Less certain. As I've said before, I really doubt it's Tar, since I don't think a scum would do the kind of antics Tar did day 1. Because vollkan joined in the voting for no lynch, I think vollkan is more likely than pwayne. But that's weak evidence. I'm not prepared to vote for vollkan just based on that (I'm still looking for harder evidence). But I'm DEFINITELY ready to vote for MoS.

Again with the argument that Tar is unlikely to be scum. It is a viable gambit to make. He has managed to evade all suspicion so far by simply being ignored as a vanilla/CR. And you suspect me because I voted No Lynch, despite the fact that No Lynch was the better option. Again, you are clearly suggesting that the fact that the worst case scenario arose therefore proves that the No Lynch plan itself was flawed and that its proponents (here, MoS and myself) were suspicious.

This seems to be the entirety of your case's basis and, frankly, it's a load of BS. All you have really said is "MoS and, most likely, vollkan are scum because they pushed something which I never agreed with (for no actual reason other than gut feeling it seems) and which allowed the scum to NK the vig."

Now,
MOS in 1477

Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!

You've also noted the dramatic appeal with the "finally seeing the light" thing. Could you clarify what you mean about the OMGUS thing; I just don't follow you there.

Not to mention that you are completely ignoring the statistics here. With a lynch yesterday, there is a 66% chance of lynching town, which is a 66% chance of pushing the game towards a win for scum. Then, the vig has only a 50% chance of hitting the right target, which is a 50% chance of scum winning. With the no lynch plan, the scum only have a 60% chance of avoiding lynch today, and a 50% chance tomorrow when we lynch correctly. The numbers are still in our favor.

These numbers seem right. As such, this basically guts the whole of TH's "case".

Yes, I did want to see who you suspected before I made my case. Was hoping you might give me something that would link you to your scummate. You gave me nothing. Smart move. We'll have to settle for lynching you and agonizing over who your scummate is.

Your tone has really changed all of a sudden. You were so lacking in confidence before but now you are just throwing out "smart move" and assertions of conspiracy with no basis. Someone's getting cocky and aggressive towards endgame...

And as for the point about play balance: a vig is a strong role, don't forget. One lucky shot, and the scum could have been cut in half just like that. Makes sense that the mod would give the scum SOME power role to help in locating the vig.

Yes, but usually the town only has one scumgroup to contend with. Here, with the possibility of two, the town is at an immediate disadvantage so the vig is almost necessary as a balancer.

I didn't buy Tar's claim when he first made it. I definitely considered the possibility that he was scum trying to act townish. Also, I wasn't happy about his self-vote and immediate unvote that he made when he claimed. But when it looked like Tar might be lynched, he voted for himself AGAIN, saying that he'd rather have a recruitable townie (himself) lynched than a non-recruitable one (Kakeng). That's a bit too bold a move for a scum to pull off. If he's your scummate, then you two deserve to win.

It isn't too bold. It's a brilliant gambit. Moreover, you are still not addressing Tar as a valid candidate for suspicion. Now you are just saying that if he is scum, he "deserves to win". Tar could well be scum as much as anyone else.

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

Prove No Lynch was the worser option. Then come back and make this accusation.

Wrong. You're an experienced player, MoS. You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

No.

Yesterday it was 4:2.

Oman vig claims. ScumMoS counters. I, for one, would most likely believe MoS.

Now, if we decided not to lynch either, we would stand the likelihood of mislynch, making it 3:2. Mafia NK Oman. Oman NKs scumMoS.
That makes it 3:1 with no vig.

In contrast, if we lynched the scumvig it goes to 4:1. MafiaNK of the vig makes it 3:1 with no vig. Exactly the same.

Overall: Trojan's "case", which he has said he is ready to vote on, is founded on an unproven assertion: That No Lynch was anti-town. His sudden shift in tone, as well as his emotional appeals, have made him significantly more suspicious to me.

[Trojan Horse]

Church related things tomorrow. Not sure when I'll be back home. So I'll do what I can right now.

Prove No Lynch was the worser option. Then come back and make this accusation.

Okay.

Let's assume for the moment that things are totally random, and that there are no worries about a cultie (later, I'll discuss the things that change when we don't assume those things). If we lynched day 3, we would have had a 4/6 chance of hitting a protown player. Then the vig would have to take a shot, and would have a 2/4 chance of shooting a good guy (he knows he personally isn't scum). Both those things have go wrong for us not to survive to the 3-player endgame: a 2/6 chance overall. In contrast, having no-lynched, we now have (assuming randomness again) a 3/5 chance of mislynching and losing the game. Sounds like a worse chance to me.

Now, it was mentioned that if things went no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, that we wouldn't be COMPLETELY dead; the vig could still shoot a scum and draw the game. This is true. But think about this: to save us, the vig would have to guess right (a 2/3 chance at that point, which is good), and the scum would have to miss the vig on both of their nightkill attempts (a 3/4 chance night 3, and only a 1/2 chance night 4). So overall, when we no lynch day 3 and mislynch day 4, the vig has only a (2/3)(3/4)(1/2)=1/4 chance of saving us, and that only forces a draw. Enough to tip the scales in no-lynch's favor? I don't think so.

Of course, if we don't assume randomness, things change. MoS made the point that if we tried to lynch someone day 3, we'd likely expose the vig. (Of course, that ignores the chance that the mafia already figured out who the vig is, but that's another story.) But what about the chance that the vig would be exposed during day 4? That would end any chance of the vig saving us after a mislynch. We would have to get it right during day 4. We'd have a 50% chance of success at that point, since the vig would be confirmed. (Counterclaims? I'll deal with that in a minute.) But that 50% still doesn't match up with the 4/6 chance we'd have of hitting scum if we lynched day 3; remember, we'd then have the chance of a successful lynch AND the chance of a successful vig kill. So the chance of an exposed vig still doesn't make no-lynch the better option.

Now, what about the cultie issue? I think it's pretty clear now that the chance of a cultie made the no-lynch idea even worse (as I tried to explain day 3). We now cannot win if there is a cultie, unless the scum help us out by killing him off (not likely). But during day 3, we still had a chance to lynch the scum and the cultie. We had just enough time to do it: lynch scum day 3, lynch scum day 4, lynch cultie day 5. We don't have enough time to do it now.

Does that prove that no-lynch was anti-town? I wish I had had the time to explain things more fully during day 3. Too late now.

Finally, about the counterclaims issue:

Yesterday it was 4:2.

Oman vig claims. ScumMoS counters. I, for one, would most likely believe MoS.

Now, if we decided not to lynch either, we would stand the likelihood of mislynch, making it 3:2. Mafia NK Oman. Oman NKs scumMoS.
That makes it 3:1 with no vig.

In contrast, if we lynched the scumvig it goes to 4:1. MafiaNK of the vig makes it 3:1 with no vig. Exactly the same.

Actually, if we mislynched, and if vig and scum then killed each other off, it would be 2:1, not 3:1. But why lynch anyone at that point? Because of my fears of there being a cultie (and needing time to lynch the scum and the cultie), I would've suggested a no-lynch at that point (the only real case where I think no-lynch would help the town). That would put us at 3:1 without a vig, with time to lynch the scum and the cultie if necessary.

Yes, that's exactly the same as if we lynched the scumvig and if the scum then killed the real vig. But I think you've just proven my point. By lynching neither claimed vig (and no-lynching instead), we are assured of getting to the 3:1 situation. By lynching one of the claimed vigs, we have a chance of getting to the same 3:1 situation, and a chance of losing the game immediately (by mislynching). So it's definitely best to not lynch either claimed vig.

Anyway, we'll see what pwayne and Tar have to say about all this.

[vollkan]

TH, I spent over 3 hours working on this post. I stand completely corrected. Based on what I can see here...the probability effect of the No Lynch was disastrous.

I'll just do this with numbers alone, sentences make things even more complicated.

* Probabilities are in total, not for each individual event
* Probabilities accomodate for the vig hitting same target as mafia.
* The no lynch outcome is the same as if just mafia NK.
* When I say "VigNK town" I mean that the VigNKs a different town to the mafa.
* I have also separated mafiaNK of vig from mafiaNK of town.

Prepare for the ultimate in number-crunching!

On D3, assuming 4:2 (no cult).
Mislynch vig = 3:2 (P=0.167)
-MafNK town = 2:2

(P=0.167) LOSS

Mislynch town= 3:2 (P=0.5)
-MafNK vig= 2:2 (P=0.167)
--VigNK town = 1:2

(P=0.084) LOSS

--VigNK mafia = 2:1 (P=0.084)
---Mislynch D4 = 1:1

(P=0.056) LOSS

---Maflynch D4 = 2:0

(P=0.028) WIN

-MafNK town = 2:2 (P=0.333)
--VigNK town = 1:2

(P=0.083) LOSS

--VigNK same target = 2:2 (P=0.083)
---No Lynch D4 = 2:2 (P=0.083)
----MafNK Vig = 1:2

(P=0.042) LOSS

----MafNK town = 1:2 (P=0.042)
-----VigNK same target = 1:2

(P=0.014) LOSS

-----VigNK mafia = 1:1

(P=0.028) DRAW

--VigNK mafia = 2:1 (P=0.167)
---Mislynch vig D4 = 1:1

(P=0.056) LOSS

---Mislynch town D4 = 1:1

(P=0.056)DRAW

---Maflynch D4 = 2:0

(P=0.056) WIN

Maflynch = 4:1 (P=0.333)
-MafNK vig= 3:1 (P=0.083)
--VigNK town = 2:1 (P=0.062) .
---Mislynch vig D4 = 1:1

(P=0.021) LOSS

---Mislynch town D4 = 1:1

(P=0.021) DRAW

---Maflynch D4 = 2:0

(P=0.021) WIN

--VigNK mafia = 3:0

(P=0.021) WIN

-MafNK town = 3:1 (P=0.25)
--VigNK town = 2:1 (P=0.125)
---Mislynch vig D4 = 1:1

(P=0.042) LOSS

---Mislynch town D4 = 1:1

(P=0.042) DRAW

---Maflynch town D4 = 2:0

(P=0.042) WIN

--VigNK same target = 3:1 (P=0.063) this means D4 opens at 3:1
---Mislynch vig D4 = 2:1

(P=0.016) LOSS (since no vig)

---Mislynch town D4 = 2:1 (P=0.032)
----MafNK vig = 1:1 (P=0.016)
-----VigNK town = 0:1

(P=0.008) LOSS

-----VigNK mafia = 1:0

(P=0.008) WIN

----MafNK town = 1:1 (P=0.016)
-----VigNK same target = 1:1

(P=0.008) DRAW

-----VigNK mafia = 1:0

(P=0.008) WIN

---Maflynch D4 = 3:0

(P=0.016) WIN

--VigNK mafia = 3:0

(P=0.063) WIN

If we lynched,

Probability of a win = 0.263

Probability of a draw = 0.155

Probability of a loss = 0.589

Total = 1.007 (due to rounding errancy)

Thus, if we both lynched and vigged yesterday, the likelihood of us winning is 0.263.

If we mislynched, the likelihood of us winning was just 0.084.

This analysis is not fair for mafia lynch, though, since people took the view that in the event of a mafia lynch, vigging would be bad.

Thus, another analysis for if the vig did not NK in the event of a mafia lynch:
Maflynch = 4:1 (P=0.333)
-MafNK vig= 3:1 (P=0.083)

A

--Mislynch D4 = 2:1

(P=0.062) LOSS

--Maflynch D4 = 3:0

(P=0.021) WIN

-MafNK town = 3:1 (P=0.25)

B

--Mislynch vig D4 = 2:1

(P=0.063) LOSS

--Mislynch town D4 = 2:1 (P=0.125)
---MafNK Vig = 1:1 (P=0.063)
----Vig NK town = 0:1

(P=0.032) LOSS

----Vig NK mafia = 1:0

(P=0.032) WIN

---MafNK town = 1:1 (P=0.063)
----VigNK same target = 1:1

(P=0.032) DRAW

----VigNK mafia = 1:0

(P=0.032) WIN

--Maflynch D4 = 3:0

(P=0.063) WIN

Thus, if we chose to lynch, but guaranteed no vigging on a maflynch,

Probability of a win = 0.232

Probability of a draw = 0.116

Probability of a loss = 0.659

Total probability= 1.007

As we can see, it turns out that not vigging in the event of a mafia lynch actually would actually have decreased our probability of winning.

Notice the bolded A and B above. In those scenarios, we can choose to No Lynch.

A - Vig has been killed

No Lynch = 3:1 (P=0.083)
-MafNK town = 2:1 (P=0.083)
--Mislynch D4 = 1:1

(P=0.042) LOSS

--Maflynch D4 = 2:0

(P=0.042) WIN

B - Vig is still alive

No Lynch D4 = 3:1 (P=0.25)
-MafNK vig = 2:1 (P=0.083)
--VigNK town = 1:1

(P=0.055) LOSS

--VigNK mafia = 1:0

(P=0.028) WIN

-MafNK town = 2:1 (P=0.167)
--VigNK town = 1:1

(P=0.056) DRAW

--VigNK same = 2:1 (P=0.056)
---Mislynch vig D5 = 1:1

(P=0.019) LOSS

---Mislynch town D5 = 1:1

(P=0.019) DRAW

---Maflynch D5 = 2:0

(P=0.019) WIN

--VigNK mafia = 2:0

(P=0.056) WIN

No Lynch in B also makes it: (as in with no lynch in A AND B)

Probability of a win = 0.229

Probability of a draw = 0.159

Probability of a loss = 0.618

Total probability= 1.006

Okay. So, in the event that the vig chooses not to NK in maflynch, A and B as well, the probability of a win increases to 0.229.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now, what about a No Lynch/No Vig as proposed and performed
On D3, 4:2
No Lynch = 4:2
-MafNK vig = 3:2 (P=0.25)
--Mislynch D4 =

2:2 (P=0.15) LOSS

--Maflynch D4 = 3:1 (P=0.1)
---MafNK = 2:1 (P=0.1)
----Mislynch D5 = 1:1

(P=0.05) LOSS

----Maflynch D5 = 2:0

(P=0.05) WIN

-MafNK town = 3:2 (P=0.75)
--Mislynch vig D4 = 2:2

(P=0.15) LOSS

--Mislynch town D4 = 2:2 (P=0.3)
---MafNK vig = 1:2

(P=0.15) LOSS

---MafNK town = 1:2 (P=0.15)
----VigNK same = 1:2

(P=0.05) LOSS

----VigNK mafia = 1:1

(P=0.1) DRAW

--Maflynch D4 = 3:1 (P=0.3)
---MafNK = 2:1 (P=0.3)
----Mislynch D5 = 1:1

(P=0.2) LOSS

----Maflynch D5 = 2:0

(P=0.1) WIN

Now, the probabilities are:

Probability of a win = 0.150

Probability of a draw = 0.100

Probability of a loss = 0.750

As we can see...the No Lynch has dropped our win probability by a significant margin.

I've checked this again and again, but, regrettably, I think it is correct.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Yes, I did want to see who you suspected before I made my case. Was hoping you might give me something that would link you to your scummate. You gave me nothing. Smart move. We'll have to settle for lynching you and agonizing over who your scummate is.

Gotta love how you've become exceedingly confident and aggressive now that it's endgame, after you've been agonizing about being wrong all game. You were hesitant to attack anyone all game, and I called you out for it before. Why now? Because you only need a mislynch to win now. Nice try, but I don't think anyone's gonna buy it.

Funny that you all of a sudden believe the scum had a power role...With there being a cult AND 2 mafia, I wouldn't think the mafia would have much power with only a roleblocker and vig on our side. This suggestion of yours makes so much sense it's pretty clear you're coming with outside information here.

Or, it makes so much sense because I'm right. I "all of a sudden" started believing that the scum had a power role because I realized it's the best explanation for Oman's death. Don't think the scum would have shot the scummiest-looking player if they didn't know he was the vig.

Hence my "wtf" reaction, which you seem to take scumminess from, even though it's fairly reasonable, since even you admit that the scum wouldn't have shot the scummiest-looking player. Your logic doesn't follow. I'm perfectly willing to believe you're right, but considering your track record, I don't think it just "occurred" to you.

And as for the point about play balance: a vig is a strong role, don't forget. One lucky shot, and the scum could have been cut in half just like that. Makes sense that the mod would give the scum SOME power role to help in locating the vig.

The vig is a strong role that is EXTREMELY swingy. If the vig kills and kills wrong, it can really swing the game in the wrong way, since we're fighting a cult. With 2 kills a night AND a recruit, the cult could have quickly grown. With 2 scumgroups that the vig has to worry about, I wouldn't have thought it that unbalanced to have the setup as we know it (1 cult, 2 mafia, 1 vig, 1 RB, rest townies). A scum power role doesn't make it too much in favor of the mafia, but I certainly wouldn't have considered it a possibility until you "thought of it".

...
You're going to kill the vig at night, of course. But what you'd really like is to do so without allowing the vig to make a kill. That would leave the town with no margin for error. But how can you do that?

How about suggesting a no lynch?

Except that if I was scum, that would be the most retarded plan ever. If I knew Oman was the vig, I would want him to kill that night after mislynching. Because his top two suspects were

YOU

, Troj, and

Tar

, the person you have so slyly asserted is probably protown based on the ballsy antics he pulled Day 1.

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

See, now you're countering your own arguments here. You're the one that said we should make use of the vig and lynch yesterday. If that's a valid argument, why are you agreeing with me that we

shouldn't

rely on the vig? Nice contradiction there, though.

Not that you ever consider the fact that mafia claiming vanilla townie baits the cult into failing on a recruit, which helps the mafia.

I didn't buy Tar's claim when he first made it. I definitely considered the possibility that he was scum trying to act townish. Also, I wasn't happy about his self-vote and immediate unvote that he made when he claimed. But when it looked like Tar might be lynched, he voted for himself AGAIN, saying that he'd rather have a recruitable townie (himself) lynched than a non-recruitable one (Kakeng). That's a bit too bold a move for a scum to pull off. If he's your scummate, then you two deserve to win.

Really? You don't think that a scum in a sinking ship with an established meta for acting crazy would act crazy when he's about to get lynched? That's awfully generous of you. I'm sure Tar is happy that you think that.

If we didn't no lynch, the game would probably have been over already, from your perspective. Oman would've killed you or Tar, and we probably would've lynched the other one, both of whom you assert are protown. If I was scum, I'd be all over a plan like that.

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

Except that letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum, and they STILL have a good chance of winning if he kills.

...

You knew that if we didn't go along with your no lynch strategy, then we'd all force Oman to claim, and he'd reveal himself as the vig. Since you had stated your "fears" that pushing for a lynch would lead to the vig being exposed, you would then look super-townie, and I'd look super-scummy.

...

Exactly why your theory here is bullshit. Why would I fight

against

a plan that would make me look super-protown?

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

So, I had a backup plan that had a greater chance of success than the main plan? My looking super-townie means that Oman is not going to kill me, and I can pretty much push a lynch on whoever I want. If Oman isn't going to kill me, that means he has a 66% chance of shooting

wrong

after we lynch another townie, which is a damn good chance of me winning if I'm scum. A lot better than the chances I would have right now.

Hell, I could counterclaim him and get him lynched, because he did not look at all like the vig. If I was scum, Oman would've been lynched, and the game would be over already.

Wrong. You're an experienced player, MoS. You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

Trading a scum for a vig is a pretty good deal, if I'm that worried about him, as you seem to think I would be.

...

So that's my case. Come on, folks. Let's send MoS to the gallows.

Oh, almost forgot:

FoS MoS

. No vote until the group has had a chance to respond.

And here Trojan uses an appeal to emotion. Nice fallacy.

This is the first time all game that I've had any confidence that someone is scum. I can't help but be a little dramatic.

Correction: It's finally LYLO and you only need one mislynch to win the game, so you're being overly dramatic and confident with a flimsy case, because you don't have a better case to make against pwayne or vollkan. With me, you can just say my predecessor was scummy, which is something I can't defend against.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Now,
MOS in 1477

Wow, I am fucking psychic. I'm like a freaking genius here. I read this post last night, and I was like "wow, this post screams scum to me. Troj sets up to make a "case" while excusing himself from having a bad scumdar all game, looks like a decent ploy to get people to believe he's finally right. And he's fishing for my opinion so that he can see who I suspect before he makes his case. So he's probably going to attack me, but I shouldn't say anything about how scummy this looks because then he'll just OMGUS me, and that would be bad." And look, it fucking happens, right as I called it. Jeez, I am better than Miss Cleo!

You've also noted the dramatic appeal with the "finally seeing the light" thing. Could you clarify what you mean about the OMGUS thing; I just don't follow you there.

By OMGUS, I mean that I felt an attack on Trojan (who I felt likely to be scum based on that post) would cause an OMGUS attack on myself, since Trojan would want to cast doubt on the alignment of someone who had attacked him. It seems that he felt I was the biggest threat/easiest target anyways, but that's not really the point.

Not to mention that you are completely ignoring the statistics here. With a lynch yesterday, there is a 66% chance of lynching town, which is a 66% chance of pushing the game towards a win for scum. Then, the vig has only a 50% chance of hitting the right target, which is a 50% chance of scum winning. With the no lynch plan, the scum only have a 60% chance of avoiding lynch today, and a 50% chance tomorrow when we lynch correctly. The numbers are still in our favor.

These numbers seem right. As such, this basically guts the whole of TH's "case".

Indeed. Vollkan, the problem with your numbers above is that you're taking the vig into account too much. Your probabilities are treating the vig as an entirely different case, when the proposed No Lynch/No Vig plan was not counting on the vig

at all

. The vig might be considered a backup plan that could save the day if all goes wrong, but the benefits of a vig were not factored into the plan, because we do not trust the vig to kill correctly. Right now we have a 50% chance of lynching scum, disregarding evidence that makes us more likely to lynch correctly. Yesterday, that chance was only 33%. Your problem is that you are delving too deeply into reliance on the statistics. The statistics are only meant to deal with the here and now, to give us the best chance of moving on in a positive manner to the next "day". The no lynch plan turned our 33% chance into a 50% chance. That is an improvement for us. It's true that the numbers statistically point towards a better chance the first day, but that's because the numbers after a successful mafia lynch are ridiculously in the town's favor. But if that was truly a statistic to be relied upon, why has the no lynch plan been broadly accepted across the mafia community? It's because you cannot depend on that first unlikely correct lynch to get you into a situation where the statistics are heavily in your favor. The no lynch plan does bring the scum slightly closer to winning overall, but it DOES give us better chances at making the correct decision. You have to realize this to be able to understand how it all goes together.

[Trojan Horse]

Heading out the door now. Full response when I have the chance. I just have time for one quick question right now:

MoS: why do you keep saying that we have a 50% chance of hitting scum right now? 2/5=40%, last time I checked.

[vollkan]

Indeed. Vollkan, the problem with your numbers above is that you're taking the vig into account too much. Your probabilities are treating the vig as an entirely different case, when the proposed No Lynch/No Vig plan was not counting on the vig at all. The vig might be considered a backup plan that could save the day if all goes wrong, but the benefits of a vig were not factored into the plan, because we do not trust the vig to kill correctly. Right now we have a 50% chance of lynching scum, disregarding evidence that makes us more likely to lynch correctly. Yesterday, that chance was only 33%. Your problem is that you are delving too deeply into reliance on the statistics. The statistics are only meant to deal with the here and now, to give us the best chance of moving on in a positive manner to the next "day". The no lynch plan turned our 33% chance into a 50% chance. That is an improvement for us. It's true that the numbers statistically point towards a better chance the first day, but that's because the numbers after a successful mafia lynch are ridiculously in the town's favor. But if that was truly a statistic to be relied upon, why has the no lynch plan been broadly accepted across the mafia community? It's because you cannot depend on that first unlikely correct lynch to get you into a situation where the statistics are heavily in your favor. The no lynch plan does bring the scum slightly closer to winning overall, but it DOES give us better chances at making the correct decision. You have to realize this to be able to understand how it all goes together.

First up, what's with the 50%? If there are 2 scum and 5 players, our odds of lynching scum are 2/5.

Anyway, what I gather from this is that whilst the No Lynch is worse as a matter of pure global probability, the non-numerical factors (chiefly, not relying on a vig and not making a less-informed D3 lynch) actually cause it to run in our favour. And, as you say, our chances of lynching successfully in the here-and-now have actually increased. Thus, it was actually for the best.

[Trojan Horse]

...

Or, it makes so much sense because I'm right. I "all of a sudden" started believing that the scum had a power role because I realized it's the best explanation for Oman's death. Don't think the scum would have shot the scummiest-looking player if they didn't know he was the vig.

Hence my "wtf" reaction, which you seem to take scumminess from, even though it's fairly reasonable, since even you admit that the scum wouldn't have shot the scummiest-looking player.

Nope, I don't take any scumminess from your "wtf" reaction. That reaction was perfectly normal. I take scumminess from other things, primarily from your call for a no lynch.

The vig is a strong role that is EXTREMELY swingy. If the vig kills and kills wrong, it can really swing the game in the wrong way, since we're fighting a cult. With 2 kills a night AND a recruit, the cult could have quickly grown. With 2 scumgroups that the vig has to worry about, I wouldn't have thought it that unbalanced to have the setup as we know it (1 cult, 2 mafia, 1 vig, 1 RB, rest townies). A scum power role doesn't make it too much in favor of the mafia, but I certainly wouldn't have considered it a possibility until you "thought of it".

No argument from me that the vig role is swingy. It definitely is. Also, no argument from me that having a mafia power role isn't immediately obvious. The thought certainly hadn't entered my head until several hours after day 4 dawned. But unless the scum picked up on a vigtell that I didn't see, I can't think of any other reasonable explanation for Oman's death.

...

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

See, now you're countering your own arguments here. You're the one that said we should make use of the vig and lynch yesterday. If that's a valid argument, why are you agreeing with me that we

shouldn't

rely on the vig? Nice contradiction there, though.

Where's the contradiction? I said that the town can't DEPEND on the vig making good use of his shots. So, for example, if we only have one chance of hitting a scum, it's better that we use a lynch (where we all contribute to the discussion) than a vig kill. But when we were in day 3, we didn't just have one chance of hitting our first scum; we had TWO. One lynch, and (if that failed) one vig kill. Why not pool our chances?

This next quote from MoS was in response to my claims that Tar's antics make him unlikely to be scum.

Really? You don't think that a scum in a sinking ship with an established meta for acting crazy would act crazy when he's about to get lynched? That's awfully generous of you. I'm sure Tar is happy that you think that.

The ship wasn't just sinking. Water was about to come over the deck. No time for continued antics, if he was scum. I will say one thing, though. While I think RIGHT NOW that it is very unlikely that Tar is scum, my convictions will be shaken if Tar and I are both in the final 3 (with just one scum left to be found). That would seem too much like a perfect setup for me; the 3rd guy would be so "clearly" scum, that I would inevitably wonder if I was wrong, and that Tar was scum all along.

Tar's not 100% off my list. Close, but not quite.

...

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

Except that letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum, and they STILL have a good chance of winning if he kills.

"Letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum." Glad to see you finally agree with me.

...

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

So, I had a backup plan that had a greater chance of success than the main plan? My looking super-townie means that Oman is not going to kill me, and I can pretty much push a lynch on whoever I want. If Oman isn't going to kill me, that means he has a 66% chance of shooting

wrong

after we lynch another townie, which is a damn good chance of me winning if I'm scum. A lot better than the chances I would have right now.

No, your backup plan didn't have a greater chance of success than the main plan. Getting rid of the vig without having him kill would be best for the scum in any case. If you couldn't pull that off, you could at least try to not look scummy. But that isn't as good a scenario from your perspective. Just how non-scummy would you look? You might get lynched/vigged anyway. Getting rid of the vig was the best case scenario for the scum.

...

You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

Trading a scum for a vig is a pretty good deal, if I'm that worried about him, as you seem to think I would be.

I could see a scum claiming vig early in day 3, so as to draw out the real vig (assuming they didn't already know who the vig was). But that has its risks. The vig could simply sit back and not counterclaim. No real need to, since he can just shoot the scum night 3 anyway. But the vig might not think of that, so that's a possible scum tactic.

What I CAN'T see is the scum claiming vig AFTER the real vig has claimed. The vig has been exposed. The scum can kill him off at night. Why should the scum expose one of their own? The town would leave both claimed vigs alone, and let them kill each other off. Counterclaiming the vig would be a total waste. (As you should know, MoS. You must have seen this situation a bunch of times before.)

[Mastermind of Sin]

First up, what's with the 50%? If there are 2 scum and 5 players, our odds of lynching scum are 2/5.

Anyway, what I gather from this is that whilst the No Lynch is worse as a matter of pure global probability, the non-numerical factors (chiefly, not relying on a vig and not making a less-informed D3 lynch) actually cause it to run in our favour. And, as you say, our chances of lynching successfully in the here-and-now have actually increased. Thus, it was actually for the best.

Sorry, I keep thinking 50% from a personal perspective, but then 33% from global perspective yesterday. I don't know why I was making that error. Change the 50% to 40%, my bad. Point still stands, though.

[Mastermind of Sin]

...

Like you said earlier, MoS, you can't count on what the vig is going to do. While the town can't depend on the vig making good use of his shots, the scum can't depend on the vig making BAD use of them, either. Why take an unnecessary chance? You'd rather have the vig not shoot at all than shoot someone and possibly hit scum.

See, now you're countering your own arguments here. You're the one that said we should make use of the vig and lynch yesterday. If that's a valid argument, why are you agreeing with me that we

shouldn't

rely on the vig? Nice contradiction there, though.

Where's the contradiction? I said that the town can't DEPEND on the vig making good use of his shots. So, for example, if we only have one chance of hitting a scum, it's better that we use a lynch (where we all contribute to the discussion) than a vig kill. But when we were in day 3, we didn't just have one chance of hitting our first scum; we had TWO. One lynch, and (if that failed) one vig kill. Why not pool our chances?

But see, my no lynch plan doesn't depend on the vig kill at all. Your plan depends on the vig kill a lot more, because there was a

higher

probability of mislynching yesterday, and therefore a

higher

chance that the vig kill would have to be depended upon to find scum. So if you think the town can't depend on the vig, you shouldn't have wanted to lynch yesterday, since all the probabilities point towards having to do so.

This next quote from MoS was in response to my claims that Tar's antics make him unlikely to be scum.

Really? You don't think that a scum in a sinking ship with an established meta for acting crazy would act crazy when he's about to get lynched? That's awfully generous of you. I'm sure Tar is happy that you think that.

The ship wasn't just sinking. Water was about to come over the deck. No time for continued antics, if he was scum. I will say one thing, though. While I think RIGHT NOW that it is very unlikely that Tar is scum, my convictions will be shaken if Tar and I are both in the final 3 (with just one scum left to be found). That would seem too much like a perfect setup for me; the 3rd guy would be so "clearly" scum, that I would inevitably wonder if I was wrong, and that Tar was scum all along.

Tar's not 100% off my list. Close, but not quite.

I think you're really underplaying the effectiveness of Tar's antics, but it's clear that you're going to keep defending your scumbuddy while hedging your bets, so we're not going to agree anytime soon. This subject is bled dry.

...

Again, you couldn't count on the vig making the wrong move. Better from your perspective to stop the vig from shooting altogether.

Except that letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum, and they STILL have a good chance of winning if he kills.

"Letting Oman kill is the worst case scenario for the scum." Glad to see you finally agree with me.

You misunderstand me. The chance that Oman might

get

to kill is the worst thing that can happen if the mafia pushed for a mislynch yesterday. It's not a

bad

thing. But it's the

worst

in a series of

good

scenarios for the scum.

...

Your top priority was to force a no lynch and then kill off the vig. I think this was just a backup plan; if we didn't no lynch, at least you could look more townish by having warned us that pushing for a lynch would expose the vig.

So, I had a backup plan that had a greater chance of success than the main plan? My looking super-townie means that Oman is not going to kill me, and I can pretty much push a lynch on whoever I want. If Oman isn't going to kill me, that means he has a 66% chance of shooting

wrong

after we lynch another townie, which is a damn good chance of me winning if I'm scum. A lot better than the chances I would have right now.

No, your backup plan didn't have a greater chance of success than the main plan. Getting rid of the vig without having him kill would be best for the scum in any case. If you couldn't pull that off, you could at least try to not look scummy. But that isn't as good a scenario from your perspective. Just how non-scummy would you look? You might get lynched/vigged anyway. Getting rid of the vig was the best case scenario for the scum.

Wrong. It was pretty clear that Oman was in no way going to vig me soon, so there is no reason for me to have been afraid of him if I was scum. The only people that would be worried about the vig kill are Tar and Trojan Horse. Therefore, if the scum were worried about the vig as you say, you've just told us who the scum were. It's as simple as that.

...

You know exactly what would've happened if we were faced with two claimed vigs: we wouldn't have lynched EITHER of them. Let them shoot each other at night. Save ourselves a guess. Nah, you wouldn't have dared counterclaim the vig, since you'd just be trading a scum for the vig.

Trading a scum for a vig is a pretty good deal, if I'm that worried about him, as you seem to think I would be.

I could see a scum claiming vig early in day 3, so as to draw out the real vig (assuming they didn't already know who the vig was). But that has its risks. The vig could simply sit back and not counterclaim. No real need to, since he can just shoot the scum night 3 anyway. But the vig might not think of that, so that's a possible scum tactic.

What I CAN'T see is the scum claiming vig AFTER the real vig has claimed. The vig has been exposed. The scum can kill him off at night. Why should the scum expose one of their own? The town would leave both claimed vigs alone, and let them kill each other off. Counterclaiming the vig would be a total waste. (As you should know, MoS. You must have seen this situation a bunch of times before.)

I actually don't think I've ever seen that scenario. It didn't occur to me until you mentioned it the first time, and I'm clearly not the only one who didn't think of it. Clearly you've put more thought into the ramifications of scum strategies than the rest of us.

[Trojan Horse]

MoS, you're a veteran at this site, and you've never discussed what the town should do if two people claim vig? I thought that was one of the classic scenarios. (I'd certainly seen it before, and most of my experience of playing mafia comes from scumchat.) Don't think I buy it.

Eh, we could argue back and forth like this for weeks. I want to hear (and answer) whatever questions vollkan, pwayne, and Tar have. Then we'll start making some progress.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Nope. In 102 completed games, I think this is the first time I've discussed vig counterclaims.

[vollkan]

Where's the contradiction? I said that the town can't DEPEND on the vig making good use of his shots. So, for example, if we only have one chance of hitting a scum, it's better that we use a lynch (where we all contribute to the discussion) than a vig kill. But when we were in day 3, we didn't just have one chance of hitting our first scum; we had TWO. One lynch, and (if that failed) one vig kill. Why not pool our chances?

As we've already seen, the probability of a mislynch yesterday is higher than that of a mislynch today. Thus, it was very likely we would need to depend on the vig, which places us in a dreadful position. Today, we have better odds and slightly more information. It's true that we lost the "second chance" of the vig and it is true, as I showed, that globally it lowers our probability of winning, but it is still best move because, as MoS pointed out, the global probability analysis is skewed.

The ship wasn't just sinking. Water was about to come over the deck. No time for continued antics, if he was scum. I will say one thing, though. While I think RIGHT NOW that it is very unlikely that Tar is scum, my convictions will be shaken if Tar and I are both in the final 3 (with just one scum left to be found). That would seem too much like a perfect setup for me; the 3rd guy would be so "clearly" scum, that I would inevitably wonder if I was wrong, and that Tar was scum all along.

Tar's not 100% off my list. Close, but not quite.

I've already said that Tar may well just be making a gambit. You continue to assert otherwise. Why is it so unlikely that Tar is scum? You clearly are not ruling him

out

, because you concede that you might think he was scum in a certain scenario, so what makes you think it "close" to 100% right now?

No, your backup plan didn't have a greater chance of success than the main plan. Getting rid of the vig without having him kill would be best for the scum in any case. If you couldn't pull that off, you could at least try to not look scummy. But that isn't as good a scenario from your perspective. Just how non-scummy would you look? You might get lynched/vigged anyway. Getting rid of the vig was the best case scenario for the scum.

MoS has already commented on the most interesting aspect of what you have said.

Something else that interests me is that this is another flawed attack via criticism of the No Lynch plan. Yes, it is true that scum would want to eliminate the vig without the vig killing, but you are ignoring that it was numerically to our advantage not to have a lynch or a vig kill. Don't get me wrong, I understand your point. But it doesn't actually demonstrate anything because the fact remains that the No Lynch/No Vig was still better.

On another note,

Guardian - can we get a prod on pwayne and Tar.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't think I'm going to post again until Tar and pwayne have weighed into the thread. I want to see what they have to say, I think I've made it perfectly clear what I think by now.

[pwayne66]

No need on the prod (its only been through the weekend...)

TH- Has made his MoS case and it is a valiant effort (if he is scum or if he is town). The fact remains though, that I think it is flawed. Primarily for reasons that MoS, and Vollkan have already mentioned, the most significant being that MoSScum would want a mislynch, followed by a Oman NK. The trouble comes from this: Has TH just made an error or is he trying to push a mislynch? If TH is scum and Tar is his partner I would expect TH to be bussing Tar now. I know that he is a mislynch away from winning, but defending Tar and pushing this early in the day seems too risky a tactic for TH to try to pull off. On the other hand, TH being this assertive is unnerving. He has my spidey sense tingling a bit at the very least.

Volk- Still miffed and overly defensive about yesterday's crap. With Oman as the vig, Volk has dropped significantly on my scumdar. The fact that he waits until Oman is dead to make an issue out of my suspicions seems odd. Oman turning up vig doesn't change the fact that he was acting scummy yesterday. It doesn't change the fact that Vollkan seemed content on letting him pass with only token questioning. I was wrong, but this being a "significant issue" with me seems desperate.

MoS- I wasn't pleased with how the whole claiming thing went down. Despite the two earlier posts suggesting ideas, MoS insists on his list. The one that has him claiming last. I didn't make an issue of it at the time and I only do it now to point this out. MoS-scum, being the last to claim, could have easily claimed a power role. One question though. Do this:

Funny that you all of a sudden believe the scum had a power role...With there being a cult AND 2 mafia, I wouldn't think the mafia would have much power with only a roleblocker and vig on our side. This suggestion of yours makes so much sense it's pretty clear you're coming with outside information here.

...mean that you suspect the mafia has an information role?

[Mastermind of Sin]

pwayne, you realize that my list was completely and 100% random, as in I had no input on my own place in the list, right? It was pure chance that I claimed last, and asserting that I had anything to do with it when it's clear as day that I didn't is pure bullshit.

re: information role -

I think it's a reasonable explanation, but I never would have thought of it myself.

[pwayne66]

I realize that it is possible that you turned up last on a random list. I don't, however know if the "dice roll" function is forge-able through font tags and such. I experimented a bit prior to my claim, but found nothing (the quote boxes seem to be the problem), so I didn't mention it.

[Tarhalindur]

I am unlikely to be able to post anything detailed until late Tuesday at the very earliest, due to an impending deadline on an essay.

[/prodded]

[pwayne66]

Tar, when tuesday comes about, I would like to know why you have managed to make 32 mostly content based posts in other games since your last post here a week ago.

[Trojan Horse]

Say what?

*looks*

You know what? I'd also very much like to know why, Tar.

Thanks for pointing that out, pwayne. I noticed his lack of posting here, but I didn't realize he was posting elsewhere.

Oh, and about the possibility that MoS forged the dice roll thing: heh. I do think he's scum, but I don't think he'd pull a stunt like that, even if it were possible.

[pwayne66]

Oh, and about the possibility that MoS forged the dice roll thing: heh. I do think he's scum, but I don't think he'd pull a stunt like that, even if it were possible.

I don't think that he did either. I was just saying that that was the first thing I thought of when I saw the list.