Animal Crossing Mafia: Game over

[Tarhalindur]

Lowell: Copper, (sane) Cop
Ckillor: player character, Jack of All Trades (2 abilities proven)
Tarhalindur: Gracie, vanilla townie
Yamahako: Tom Nook, unique semi-investigative role* (ability largely proven by ckillor)
HackerHuck: Booker, (naive) Cop

* - is informed whenever a player buys an item and what items were bought, can shut down the store for one night. Since this can out a scum falseclaiming his or her item inventory or buying an anti-town item, I count this as a semi-investigative role.

Note that TS came up half-Cop and that we have three claimed investigative/semi-investigative roles. I'm pretty sure that one of Hacker/Yama is our last scum, and so long as we don't get doublekilled tonight we have two lynches to tell which is which. Of these two, Hacker's claim is more common (hence harder to consistently falseclaim) and less proven, so PoE indicates that he is the last scum).

[HackerHuck]

Alright, I'm not sure if this will really help anyone in their decision, but I don't really see any harm in doing this now. Here is what I (StallingChamp) wrote in my diary. Of course we now know that all of my results are innocent, so it doesn't really matter whom I investigated. If you look back through my posts, I made a mistake directly after replacing in, but I tried to correct it in the following post.

Blue Diary

Detective Booker’s notes:

I have devised a system for keeping my results, without having to make it evident. I have decided to leave a hint of my choice of investigation and result in my first post the following day. The name of the target will be breadcrumbed in my first post the next morning using the first letter in every sentence. If it was an innocent result, the name will be spelled forwards, backwards for guilty result.

If I had gotten an innocent on Mole, the first post may look like:

“Maybe some kind of Doctor or Roleblocker saved the kill last night. Of course, I guess it’s not good to speculate on such things. Let’s focus on getting a scum today. Every lynch counts.”

A guilty on Mole might look something like this:

“Evidently something stopped the kill last night, but we shouldn’t dwell on that. Let’s just lynch right today, and we’ll be fine. Obviously yesterday didn’t go so well for us. Maybe today we can make up for it.”

NOTE: Mole was found to be innocent on the first night, before this system was devised.

For what it's worth, Grek (known scum), was on my case the most out of everyone. I don't really have a defence other than that, but considering the case on me is that my role isn't believable, there's not much that I can say.

[Tarhalindur]

Wait a minute.

I went looking for Hacker's breadcrumbs. I didn't find them, but I noticed something far, far more interesting:

T

o the doubters, I believe the claim.

H

onestly, why would a scum fake claim like that?

E

arly on, such as this, all that could happen is the real cop counters, outs the scum, and gets protected every night by the doc.

R

ealistically, it makes no sense for them to take such a huge risk, with little payout.

E

veryone will naturally be more suspicious of him than the average guy.

A

ssuming he is the real cop is our best option here, since it will cost us little.

L

ynching him now could cost us a power role, but letting him live will force him to bus his buddies or be lynched.

C

ollectively, I think we shoud give him these 2 bells and watch him very closely.

O

f course, I disagree with giving him ALL of our bells, I think that just these two will be fine for now, until we have more proof.

P

eculiar as his claim may sound, lets just go with it, letting him live, but watching him closely.

I

nstinct tells me that we should believe the claim.

S

omething in his post gives me a good sign, but I would rather not divulge it right now.

M

ost importantly, if we have a doc, protect Lowell for the time being.

E

ven if we aren't 100% sure of his claim, we don't want to risk losing a cop.

That's enough for me to believe Hacker's claim, which leaves Yamahako and Lowell ( ) as my scum candidates (I do NOT believe that there are four investigative roles in the game, for several reasons).

I need to think this over.

[Lowell]

Wait a minute.

I went looking for Hacker's breadcrumbs. I didn't find them, but I noticed something far, far more interesting:

T

o the doubters, I believe the claim.

H

onestly, why would a scum fake claim like that?

E

arly on, such as this, all that could happen is the real cop counters, outs the scum, and gets protected every night by the doc.

R

ealistically, it makes no sense for them to take such a huge risk, with little payout.

E

veryone will naturally be more suspicious of him than the average guy.

A

ssuming he is the real cop is our best option here, since it will cost us little.

L

ynching him now could cost us a power role, but letting him live will force him to bus his buddies or be lynched.

C

ollectively, I think we shoud give him these 2 bells and watch him very closely.

O

f course, I disagree with giving him ALL of our bells, I think that just these two will be fine for now, until we have more proof.

P

eculiar as his claim may sound, lets just go with it, letting him live, but watching him closely.

I

nstinct tells me that we should believe the claim.

S

omething in his post gives me a good sign, but I would rather not divulge it right now.

M

ost importantly, if we have a doc, protect Lowell for the time being.

E

ven if we aren't 100% sure of his claim, we don't want to risk losing a cop.

That's enough for me to believe Hacker's claim, which leaves Yamahako and Lowell ( ) as my scum candidates (I do NOT believe that there are four investigative roles in the game, for several reasons).

I need to think this over.

Hahahaha.

You've got to be kidding me. This is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Think it through.

So, Tar, you're saying you believe HH because he breadcrumbed an innocent on HIMSELF. AND, you're saying he's LYING about being a naive cop (for some reason) and KNOWS me not to be the cop (which somehow he figured out).

HH, let me ask you directly before this dumbness clears you. Are you saying you are (a) a non-naive cop, and (b) have a guilty result on me?

[Lowell]

Oh I get it.

There's another interpretation here I hadn't considered.

I'll wait for HH's response.

[HackerHuck]

Honestly, do you think scum would be so stupid to fall for that?

My PM doesn't say I'm naive, so there's no way that Stalling Champ would have know that when he breadcrumbed that post. Stalling Champ investigated Lowell on night two and got an innocent. That was after he posted that breadcrumb, so I'm guessing that he didn't want to reveal his role right away. I then used the lantern on you last night and also got an innocent. By the way, I got an innocent on ABR last night as well, but I've given up breadcrumbing by this point. The facts are that I've only received innocent results, and Stalling Champ investigated Mole on N1 and got an innocent. BM replaced Mole and turned up scum when he was NKed.

It's possible that I'm not naive and BM/Mole was investigation immune, but I think the simpler explanation makes more sense.

I must be bad at breadcrumbing, because my first post of the game should have spelled out Spin Wizard's name backward and then my next post commented on how I accidentally got things backward.

[Lowell]

Okay I see.

So, wouldn't spelling SpinWizard backwards mean you got a guilty on him?

[Lowell]

Looking at stalling's posts, HH's claim does fit. I'm putting him on my "unlikely" list at this point.

I'm moving Tar up higher and higher as we go on, especially given his last post. If it is true that HH is naive, then I DON'T think it is unreasonable to think that we'd have a cop, naive cop, and a tracker-sorta-thing. That's 1 pure investigaive role and 2 quasi-investigative roles, plus a "fake" investigative role (HH). In general, naive cops do more bad than good (outing real cops, countering real cops, etc). This could make up for the balance...

As well, your reaction to discovering Stalling's hidden message doesn't add up. Your first reaction should have been, "oh, that clears HH." NOT, "oh, therefore Lowell is a suspect."

It's down to Yama and Tar for me now. Despite Tar's earlier post, I'm still leaning towards him being town thanks to his general playstyle and activeness.

vote yama

. To get things moving.

If it's not yama, I'll be voting for Tar tomorrow.

[Yamahako]

Looking at stalling's posts, HH's claim does fit. I'm putting him on my "unlikely" list at this point.

I'm moving Tar up higher and higher as we go on, especially given his last post. If it is true that HH is naive, then I DON'T think it is unreasonable to think that we'd have a cop, naive cop, and a tracker-sorta-thing. That's 1 pure investigaive role and 2 quasi-investigative roles, plus a "fake" investigative role (HH). In general, naive cops do more bad than good (outing real cops, countering real cops, etc). This could make up for the balance...

As well, your reaction to discovering Stalling's hidden message doesn't add up. Your first reaction should have been, "oh, that clears HH." NOT, "oh, therefore Lowell is a suspect."

It's down to Yama and Tar for me now. Despite Tar's earlier post, I'm still leaning towards him being town thanks to his general playstyle and activeness.

vote yama

. To get things moving.

If it's not yama, I'll be voting for Tar tomorrow.

I can't in good consious vote for myself, because I think Scum being able to buy axes and only 2 peachy shirts being in circulation can make this end badly for town. Almost anyone is a better choice if we have a investigation immune SK - since I can close down the store and verify who buys an Axe.

I hope we're doing the right thing.

[HackerHuck]

I hope we're doing the right thing.

What is that supposed to mean?

[Yamahako]

I hope we're doing the right thing.

What is that supposed to mean?

It means I can't think of a better plan, but since I know I'm town and still have a useful ability, I'm hoping it all turns out for the best...

It also means, that when I come up town tomorrow, with 1 or more other townies dead, There will be a lynch or lose scenario (if 2 die).

Given his actions today, I could guess at a ckillor SK (he's the person playing the game) that is investigation immune - especially with so many supposed cops around. Today he's given off the "good job killing the GF" tell, and the either or tell that scum usually have. Aside from him, I don't have a clue who else might be mafia - or SK, its kind of a toss of the dice.

Since I actually have some suspicion of Ckillor, I'll throw my vote in that direction

Vote Ckillor

. I don't expect people to follow me in that direction, but obviously knowing I'm town I can't vote for myself.

[Primate]

Mod:

Did Grek have a will and/or items?

Hi, sorry. He had no bells, though he did have a nooks portrait. I don't want to drag the game back, so just vote in the format of

givestuff: XXXX

Also, everyone got

2

bells at the beginning of the day cause it's divisible by three, fyi.

[HackerHuck]

Lowell, is the portrait the item that indicates LYLO?

[Lowell]

No. Don't know what the portrait does.

[Tarhalindur]

Portrait reduces items that cost 5 or more by 1.

I have one already, so it's probably for the best that I hold onto this one as well (I don't want the Axe to cost 5 for the scum).

Bid 1 bell for Nook's Portrait

[Lowell]

Tar bugs me for some reason.

FOS Tar

I feel we're all being shy with opinions of late. What gives? Someone break this game open for me. Who's scum and why?

[HackerHuck]

Tar bugs me for some reason.

FOS Tar

I feel we're all being shy with opinions of late. What gives? Someone break this game open for me. Who's scum and why?

I've actually been getting the same feeling for the last few pages (even a little yesterday). Unfortunately, I won't be able to break things open for us right away. I'm traveling and my access is pretty limited until the weekend.

[Tarhalindur]

Upon further reflection, I think that I know who the last scum pretty much has to be (and I've been barking up the wrong tree for a while on mistaken reasoning). Here's a basic scummary (pun intended):

Not Scum: Ckillor. He's proven two abilities, pretty much confirming his JoaT claim (if he was lying I doubt he would have been able to double prove himself), and I can't see an SK having JoaT powers as well (especially thanks to the "one night action + 1 item action" rule).

Unlikely to be scum: HackerHuck. In short, that subclaim clears him in my eyes (it removes the only contradiction in his position, and frankly I doubt that scum would crumb that way - especially as an SK who knows that the mafia are out there).

Judge for yourself: Tarhalindur, aka "me".

Possible scum: Lowell. Would require Lowell to have been extremely good/lucky at scumhunting and taking major risks re: the mafia NK, making it unlikely, but Lowell as scum remains a possibility. Still, we can probably live until tomorrow if Lowell is scum, so...

Probably the last scum: Yamahako. His ability is proven, but then again, Grek also had an ability that allowed him to "prove" himself, that ability *could* be useful for scum, and I just can't see four investigative roles in the game (3 yes, 4 no). The role name is also fairly scummy (I could see Tom Nook as SK, given Wiki flavor).

At this point, I'm pretty sure that Yamahako and Lowell are the only real scum possibilities, and of these two Yamahako is more likely to be scum.

Unvote, Vote: Yamahako

[Lowell]

So, again... to believe I'm the scum, do you realize what you're asking?

You're saying that, on D1, I fake-claimed not only a power role, but a SPECIFIC NAME.

Then, I was counterclaimed by.... a scum, who we then lynched.

After that, I gave you 3 more scum, including 2 I investigated and one I killed with an AXE.

No one has EVER counterclaimed my name or role, and the other cop has proven to be naive.

So, how exactly would I have known who the scum were if I'm not a cop? Or, if I'm a scum, how did I manage to convince THREE of my teammates to lie down and die so I could progress?

Okay, here's the thing. Tar now clearly looks like he's trying to ride the popular wave (Yama) while holding another candidate (me) in reserve. Combined with recent misgivings about Yama as scum, I'm very very happy with this vote:

unvote, vote Tar

[Lowell]

Hmm I expected a more dramatic reaction than silence.

Folks, I'm pretty sure about this one. Comments, concerns?

[Yamahako]

Hmm I expected a more dramatic reaction than silence.

Folks, I'm pretty sure about this one. Comments, concerns?

You haven't really led us wrong yet. I can see Tar's point, but there's just no way a Mafiate would bus their buddies like that. I think Tar is too quick to dismiss Ckillor as a potential SK (though I admit its likely a stretch), and I wouldn't consider it if it weren't for the 2 semi-tells from earlier today.

Unvote, Vote Tar

I don't see much else happening, and 3 days without a lynch seems like a really bad Idea.

[ckillor]

So, again... to believe I'm the scum, do you realize what you're asking?

You're saying that, on D1, I fake-claimed not only a power role, but a SPECIFIC NAME.

Then, I was counterclaimed by.... a scum, who we then lynched.

After that, I gave you 3 more scum, including 2 I investigated and one I killed with an AXE.

No one has EVER counterclaimed my name or role, and the other cop has proven to be naive.

So, how exactly would I have known who the scum were if I'm not a cop? Or, if I'm a scum, how did I manage to convince THREE of my teammates to lie down and die so I could progress?

Okay, here's the thing. Tar now clearly looks like he's trying to ride the popular wave (Yama) while holding another candidate (me) in reserve. Combined with recent misgivings about Yama as scum, I'm very very happy with this vote:

unvote, vote Tar

i think your arguements are great, im a little worried about this, but i think its the right choice.

Vote Tar...

plz be right!

[Primate]

You finally got your stuff together, I see. Pity this is one day you would have been better off no lynching that what you chose.

Tar, Gracie, Vanilla townie - Lynched Day 7.

3 - (Lowell, Yamahako, Ckillor)

Night Choices in by the 20th, though I'll end it early if I get them early.

[Primate]

HackerHuck, Booker, naive cop, has been killed nastily night 7. Poor sod

You find his diary

Detective Booker’s notes:

I have devised a system for keeping my results, without having to make it evident. I have decided to leave a hint of my choice of investigation and result in my first post the following day. The name of the target will be breadcrumbed in my first post the next morning using the first letter in every sentence. If it was an innocent result, the name will be spelled forwards, backwards for guilty result.

If I had gotten an innocent on Mole, the first post may look like:

“Maybe some kind of Doctor or Roleblocker saved the kill last night. Of course, I guess it’s not good to speculate on such things. Let’s focus on getting a scum today. Every lynch counts.”

A guilty on Mole might look something like this:

“Evidently something stopped the kill last night, but we shouldn’t dwell on that. Let’s just lynch right today, and we’ll be fine. Obviously yesterday didn’t go so well for us. Maybe today we can make up for it.”

NOTE: Mole was found to be innocent on the first night, before this system was devised.

Tom Nook's Shop is closed today. Something about a bank holiday monday.

You all get +1 bell.

Hackerhuck has no items and 7 bells. Auction them off if you really want.

[Yamahako]

I closed the shop last night.

We are at Lynch or lose and obviously I didn't kill (I used my ability to close the shop).

It's either Lowell or Ckillor. I'm leaning toward Ckillor as an SK...