Mini 1830 - Game Over

[Grendel]

Looking at 1086 Victor lays a town read at CCC’s feet right after CCC names him off as probscum.

That's textbook scum play dude.

Between the three of them It would make sense for Victor to distance from both Eager and CCC as scum. Victor was best set up to go deep. But Him town reading CCC while CCC throws shade?

Can you walk me through this?

It seems like it'd be the other way around.

Everyone, remember when you were so convinced Manuel was scum and I was saying he was town and to lynch this other guy instead?

Remember what happened?

Let's do that again.

Gamma is town. Lynch Victor instead.

Gamma is so off his town game it isn't even funny.

And you were in agreement that Gamma was scum until you suddenly weren't. You were even claiming credit for the wagon.

It looks more like you're just bored of playing with Gamma, and want to mess with Victor now. I'd rather lynch the scummiest dude first.

[Grendel]

At the very least you could explain why Gamma is town now instead of just announcing it like we can read your mind.

[House]

Everyone, remember when you were so convinced Manuel was scum and I was saying he was town and to lynch this other guy instead?

Remember what happened?

Let's do that again.

Gamma is town. Lynch Victor instead.

Earlier you said that you know Gamma is scum. What happened to your scumread on him?

Humans are a learning species.

Once Victor flips scum, you too will see the light.

[House]

At the very least you could explain why Gamma is town now instead of just announcing it like we can read your mind.

If you are scumreading Victor, you have zero reason not to vote him.

Victor has a viable wagon. I will not let Gamma be lynched today.

[CCC]

Humans are a learning species.

Once Victor flips scum, you too will see the light.

I could see Victor and Gamma being scumbuddies. Or Jester and Gamma.

[House]

But Him town reading CCC while CCC throws shade?

Can you walk me through this?

I'm a distancer when I'm scum. I throw shade on my buddies and make depressed on them.

They townread me for it.

It's a beautiful chemistry.

[House]

But Him town reading CCC while CCC throws shade?

Can you walk me through this?

I'm a distancer when I'm scum. I throw shade on my buddies and make derpcases on them.

They townread me for it.

It's a beautiful chemistry.

EBWOP

[House]

It looks more like you're just bored of playing with Gamma, and want to mess with Victor now. I'd rather lynch the scummiest dude first.

Did I get bored of playing with eager? No.

Gamma is town. Period.

He is not being lynched. Period.

[CCC]

Gamma is town. Period.

Why?

I'm not moving my vote just on your bare say-so. I need to have a good enough reason to shift my vote.

[Gamma Emerald]

Read list in a bit.

[House]

Gamma is town. Period.

Why?

I'm not moving my vote just on your bare say-so. I need to have a good enough reason to shift my vote.

I'll just beat you over the head with your stupidity when he flips green.

I've already proven that you can't read people for shit. Remember that eager town read you refused to give up?

If you want to win, sheep the one getting results.

[Grendel]

@CCC

Hey are you doing anymore math stuff? I like reading that sort of thing!

At the very least you could explain why Gamma is town now instead of just announcing it like we can read your mind.

If you are scumreading Victor, you have zero reason not to vote him.

Victor has a viable wagon. I will not let Gamma be lynched today.

I am scum reading Victor, but I'm not happy to cave into the possessive controlling nature you play this game with.

You're incredibly unfun to play with because you expect everybody to drop what there doing and follow you.

And yes this is much more a personal bias then logical but I don't really care atm.

Explain why Gamma is town FIRST. Work with me FIRST before you go ordering me around like I can't have an opinion.

[Grendel]

You reaction to me asking why Gamma is town was to tell me that Victor is scum. Give me the respect of a straight answer House.

[House]

I am scum reading Victor, but I'm not happy to cave into the possessive controlling nature you play this game with.

You're incredibly unfun to play with because you expect everybody to drop what there doing and follow you.

And yes this is much more a personal bias then logical but I don't really care atm.

Explain why Gamma is town FIRST. Work with me FIRST before you go ordering me around like I can't have an opinion.

First off, I'm not claiming to have all the answers. When tomorrow gets here, I'm not certain which direction I'll be going, myself.

Second, you can't condemn me for pushing my reads the way I am when I'm as certain as I am, because you yourself expressed a desire to be able to lead scum lynches. Jealousy is anti-town when it's yielding results.

Third, I got my Gamma townread by interacting with him. If you can't see what i saw, I'm not going to make him an even larger target for the NK just to appease you.

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually, I don't need a full set of explanations because most of my townreads are PoE.
The only person outside of Victor and CCC I can see being scum is TheJester. He's been very quiet for a while, and it looks like he's not going to stop any time soon. He's being typical lurking scum. Also, I may as well explain why I think Manuel is town. The only reason I voted him was a connection between him and Square World, a confirmed town, made by Eager, a confirmed scum. So:
Town to scum:
Manuel
Grendel
House
Huntress
Gerry
Jester
CCC
Victor

[CCC]

@CCC

Hey are you doing anymore math stuff? I like reading that sort of thing!

I need input figures to start with in order to do math stuff. I can give you the probability that a certain set of votes is random or not, but in this game

everything

is clearly non-random, so that doesn't help much. And I'm not confident enough in my own scumreads to assign firm numbers to them - the error bars are just too big.

If I have the probability that person X would take action Y as scum, the probability that he would do that same action as Town, and the prior probability of being scum, or good estimates of all the preceding numbers, then I can show exactly what the probability of him being scum after taking into account that action is. Prior probabilities I can estimate (if we assume two remaining scum, out of nine players, then 22.22% is a good guess for prior probability), but the others are harder.

[House]

What a say nothing post.

Anyone can work equations once they are given the values.

[Gamma Emerald]

Oh and I don't think anyone answered Victor's question about whether a game was solved mathematically. The answer is yes. The Micro game Confirmed Guilties was won by testing each of the four players with votes on them to see if they could be town.

[CCC]

So, consider for example: yesterday House pushed a lynch on Eager. If we assume three scum out of eleven, then that's a 3/11 chance at start of day of being scum.

Let's assume that House's scumreads are completely random as Town. Then he'd have a 3/11 chance of aiming his wagon at scum.

Now, what are the chances that he would bus Eager, under those conditions, as scum? My intuition say remote. Let's assume that he's a really reckless scum player, and peg that at 10%.

So, what are the odds, then, of House being scum, giving his pushing the wagon on eager?

It works out to (0.1)*(3/11)/[(0.1)*(3/11)+(3/11)*(8/11)], or about 12%.

Now, of course, he actually had a reason to scumread eager - so his wagon was better than random, and he's probably nowhere near that reckless a scum player, meaning his actual odds of being scum are even lower than 12%.

[Gamma Emerald]

CCC that is arbitrary as fuck.

[House]

So, consider for example: yesterday House pushed a lynch on Eager. If we assume three scum out of eleven, then that's a 3/11 chance at start of day of being scum.

Let's assume that House's scumreads are completely random as Town. Then he'd have a 3/11 chance of aiming his wagon at scum.

Now, what are the chances that he would bus Eager, under those conditions, as scum? My intuition say remote. Let's assume that he's a really reckless scum player, and peg that at 10%.

So, what are the odds, then, of House being scum, giving his pushing the wagon on eager?

It works out to (0.1)*(3/11)/[(0.1)*(3/11)+(3/11)*(8/11)], or about 12%.

Now, of course, he actually had a reason to scumread eager - so his wagon was better than random, and he's probably nowhere near that reckless a scum player, meaning his actual odds of being scum are even lower than 12%.

Thanks for putting some meat on the bones.

Regardless of your overarching point, you've provided content to analyze.

[Grendel]

VOTE: Victor

I'm glad I took a minute to step away from the game.

This is

L-1

right?

[House]

VOTE: Victor

I'm glad I took a minute to step away from the game.

This is

L-1

right?

For what it's worth, there's a solid chance I'll be sheeping you if there is a tomorrow for me, because all I have left are a couple grays in the way of suspicion and you're a solid townread.

Also yes, that vote should be L-1.

[House]

Grendel
Manuel87
Gamma Emerald
gerryoat

CCC
Huntress
The_Jester

VictorDeAngelo

[Grendel]

CCC that is arbitrary as fuck.

Idk how efficient it is as a method for finding scum, but I still find it really fascinating.

VOTE: Victor

I'm glad I took a minute to step away from the game.

This is

L-1

right?

For what it's worth, there's a solid chance I'll be sheeping you if there is a tomorrow for me, because all I have left are a couple grays in the way of suspicion and you're a solid townread.

Also yes, that vote should be L-1.

Here's to hopefully bowling a perfect game.

Also sounds like I really need to dig tonight. It'd be embarrassing if I got the baton tomarrow and screw up after all the "I can do it" pretenses I put up.