Newbie 1741 - Game Over

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 1.8

People would take your raging far more seriously if you weren’t crying all the time.

shaddowez (4)

: Papa Zito, Empoof, aronagrundy, Titus

algebra (1)

: nn30

nn30 (1)

: algebra

Not Voting

: Dunhallym, Morning Tweet, shaddowez

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-10-02 15:42:07)

algebra is being prodded.

[Papa Zito]

Guys pls post ilu

[Morning Tweet]

Well no which is why I was addressing our resident anthropomorphic bit of social media.

I was more referring to his wagon, which moved (with the exception of nn) to shadow.

I was worried that this was a scum derail and someone would start defending algebra tomorrow, but I see this is most likely not the case.

[Titus]

Minus nn30, this is the algebra wagon.

Can we get intent from you MT?

[nn30]

Minus nn30, this is the algebra wagon.

Can we get intent from you MT?

Irrelevant aside - as I was falling asleep last night, I came up with a mathy argument to why day one no lynch is bad.

Assumptions for this exercise - the worst case scenario occurs every day (town mis lynches all the way up to lynch correctly or lose stage).

X means lynch, O means night kill

Day one lynch scenario:

9 players start. X O X O

X

.

In this case the bold X represents town getting the last lynch.

Day one no lynch scenario:

9 players start. O X O X

O

.

In this case, scum get the last kill to put the game at parity (ending the game).

In a 9 person game a day one no lynch speeds the game up (in scum favor).



Using this argument a 10 person 2 scum game should actually no lynch day one.

O

X

O X O

X

.

It gives them the power of the last kill (as opposed to forfeiting it to scum with a day one kill). Also, assuming lynches are chosen randomly, the day two lynch carriers a higher chance of landing on scum than a day one lynch. A marginal advantage but still relevant.

Can anyone disagree with this logic?

[nn30]

That quote was not meant to be there...

[Titus]

We are not a 10 person game.

We lynch because we gain information based on lynching. Scum are not going to kill people we wagon. Lynching should always be done but got mylo.

[nn30]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

[Papa Zito]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

Common wisdom around here is to always lynch Day 1 regardless of even/odd number of players. Reason being is Day 1 generates a ton of info with wagons and conversation which you'll lose if you decide to no lynch that day. The situation changes if the game reaches a "MyLo" state - MyLo standing for "mislynch and lose" - where the if the town mislynches they outright lose the game but if they nolynch then they narrow the list of possible scum due to the nightkill. Bear in mind there are some scenarios in which no-lynching during Mylo isn't recommended; for example, if one player is guaranteed 100% cleared town then all a nolynch would accomplish is that player getting killed and you having one less player you can work with, or if the town has a vigilante available, etc.

#theorynonsense

[nn30]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

Common wisdom around here is to always lynch Day 1 regardless of even/odd number of players. Reason being is Day 1 generates a ton of info with wagons and conversation which you'll lose if you decide to no lynch that day.

I mean, I get that. What if a no lynch day one was only pushed after the wagon had moved around the town and information was gained?

[Papa Zito]

I can't speak for everybody but when I do wagon analysis I tend to only look at wagons that hit L-1, wagons that had major competition (say two wagons at L-2), and the lynch wagon. The lynch wagon is where I tend to start. Without a Day 1 lynch wagon you lose quite a bit of info. Corollary: If the town is willing to drive someone to L-1 then clearly they're seen as a scummy player, why wouldn't you just lynch them then and there?

[Titus]

I know we're not a 10 person game. I was presenting a scenario in which a day one no lynch holds some merit. Hence - irrelevant aside.


If we were to play a 10 person game, I wouldn't even bring up a no lynch until maybe the last 2 days. That way we played as if we were going to lynch and gained information already. In a 10 person game - assuming lynches never land on scum - a no lynch day one scenario comes with the same number of town lynches as a day one lynch scenario.

Common wisdom around here is to always lynch Day 1 regardless of even/odd number of players. Reason being is Day 1 generates a ton of info with wagons and conversation which you'll lose if you decide to no lynch that day.

I mean, I get that. What if a no lynch day one was only pushed after the wagon had moved around the town and information was gained?

Doesn't work. Wagons are effective pressure because scum don't want to die.

Plus, no lynch pushing after you see who is on the block is AI.

[nn30]

@Papa Zito

Corollary: If the town is willing to drive someone to L-1 then clearly they're seen as a scummy player, why wouldn't you just lynch them then and there?

Because in a 10 person game town gets the same number of lynches to try and catch scum - regardless of whether or not the first lynch was on day one or day two.

Are you familiar with the Monty Hall problem? If not - here you go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

TL;DR: There are three doors. One contains a car, the other two contain goats. A game show contestant chooses a door. After this initial choice, the host opens one of the unchosen doors and reveals a goat. The host then asks - would you like to change doors? Math says you should. The math also holds true for larger numbers of doors.

We could extend this problem to Mafia scum. The car = scum and goats = town. The host is the night kill (revealing/killing a goat in the night).


@Titus - the choice of when to bring up a no lynch could be seen as AI. This is indeed a problem that I cannot resolve - I concede this point to you.

[Dunhallym]

@nn30

I had actually given the "math", aka the "odd-even" rule in my second or third post in response to your original question. Yet you apparently didn't read it.
Why do you bring this back now?

[nn30]

I missed your post the first time around, rereading it now.

I brought it up because it's interesting.

[Empoof]

Where I'm from there's a trope that you have to discuss the pros and cons of no lynch every day 1. Just remember we're not random lynching. We're making inferences and deductions. These improve with lynch results as well i.e. I have some pocket reads that become something depending on alignment flip.

@nn30 what's your opinion on the shadow lynch? I know you think algebra is better today

@Dun did you get a chance to read through shadow yet?

^I'm of the opinion we should be directing our attention more to this at the moment given we're relatively close to deadline. That doesn't mean rush to a decision so make the rereads you gotta make. I know I am.

[Dunhallym]

So I’ve reread Shaddow and I have several questions/comments.

Titus, this isn't like you....what's your current read on empoof and Morning Tweet?

@shaddowez
You initially scumread algebra, and now (I assume since you're voting for him) nn30. Have your reads on these two changed at all?

I never stopped scum reading algebra, I had unvoted since he was at L-1 and I didn't want a quickhammer that early in the day (same reason I'm not actually revoting him right now). nn30 still reads somewhat scummy to me, but since I don't see him and algebra as a scum team, I feel less strongly about him being scum.

UNVOTE:

I don’t get this: your vote on nn30 came from after he put the l-1 vote on algebra, yet you now feel less strongly about nn being scum because you don’t see him as partner with algebra? Does it mean that you originally suspected nn as algebra’s partner? Or what do you mean here?

So, I'm going to hop on the unpopular bandwagon here and do this:

VOTE: Titus

She's backtracking whenever she's confronted about anything, and her reasoning is lackluster at best. This doesn't read like Titus' town game at all.

Examples: 61 - algebra never uses the term "preflip associations", so no idea where that's coming from. 188 she says she never had a strong scumread on nn30, but 35, 37, and 74 all seem to contradict that.

@algebra

- did you ever reread Titus, and if so what do you think?

Why do you ask this question specifically to algebra?

*snip*

shadow how you doing over there

Getting ready for an injection in my spine, so good I guess? Thanks for asking! Was there actually a point to this since you haven't addressed me in a while? (And in searching to make sure I didn't miss anything, I discovered it was you who asked about the Titus/Zito thing)

Yeah I actually agree with Titus.

Which might mean I'm officially clinically insane I dunno.

VOTE: shaddowez

So Titus said she'd have to consider me, but hasn't actually voted me yet. To me, that means she's still trying to decide if I'm scum or not, not that she definitely thinks I'm scum. How does agreeing with her 251 necessarily equate to a vote?
*snip*

Algebra never said preflip associations, he said associative reads. How very semantic of you.

This is mostly my fault. I was literally searching for the phrase you used and didn't actually go back through his posts to see the phrasing. That said, I don't like algebra's "reminder" after you clarified.

I'm still hesitant based on this not being the town!Titus I'm used to, but not enough to have a vote there.

UNVOTE:

Game apart, I hope you are doing fine.
Back to game: Zito already mentioned that he didn’t have to wait on Titus to suspect you, but he had also expressed several times his concern over you in previous posts, so your answer seems overly defensive.
I also hate the unvote from Titus. You mention townTitus but what about scumTitus. If you use meta then why use only part of it?

In conclusion

I understand the votes on Shaddow but before I decide anything I have a question for Shaddow voters: does your suspicion of Shaddow come mostly from Shaddow’s posts or to a potential connection with algebra? I think I already know Zito and Titus’s answer but please also answer.

[nn30]

@Empoof - We can table the strategy talk - no offense taken here.

I think that the case against shadow is based on two things 1) contradicting himself (Titus meta) and being caught doing so and 2) he flailed in response to being told he was flailing.

I can see the reason behind the votes which are currently on him but I don't feel strongly enough about it to be the hammer.

@Dunhallym - I think it's unlikely that Algebra and Shaddowez are partners. I laid out why I thought that in 269.

[algebra]

Catching up, but tbh I'm not a fan of the shadow wagon

[Dunhallym]

I'm sorry as I have much less time this week than I had last week. To clarify my position, I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch algebra today but I'd like answers to my question before deciding if I could compromise on Shaddowez. I'm aware that there is little time left and that some players are V/LA on week-ends so I'll try to find some time tomorrow morning.

[Papa Zito]

I have a question for Shaddow voters: does your suspicion of Shaddow come mostly from Shaddow’s posts or to a potential connection with algebra? I think I already know Zito and Titus’s answer but please also answer.

I don't attempt to find partners until I have a flip. My vote is purely on Shadow's actions in the game.

[Papa Zito]

Catching up, but tbh I'm not a fan of the shadow wagon

That's a bold thing to say before you've caught up.

Even more bold when you're the alternative.

[Morning Tweet]

I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch algebra today

^

Algebra could be buddied with a few different people imo. Shadow looked scummy to me because he was derailing algebra's wagon with a weak Titus one, suggesting he's trying to protect his partner. I don't see reason for scum shadow to have done that otherwise. He could have just let the wagon do it's thing and bam mislynch.

However if shadow is town, then algebra still has a reasonably good chance of being scum.

Pedit: Are you willing to elaborate on shadow's scummy actions, aside from the Titus wagon?

[Dunhallym]

I have a question for Shaddow voters: does your suspicion of Shaddow come mostly from Shaddow’s posts or to a potential connection with algebra? I think I already know Zito and Titus’s answer but please also answer.

I don't attempt to find partners until I have a flip. My vote is purely on Shadow's actions in the game.

I thought as much. I didn't want to explain it now but as we run short on time I'll do. My major issue is this: if both nn and algebra are town what did scumShadow have to gain by the whole Titus mess ?

[Dunhallym]

I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch algebra today

^

Algebra could be buddied with a few different people imo. Shadow looked scummy to me because he was derailing algebra's wagon with a weak Titus one, suggesting he's trying to protect his partner. I don't see reason for scum shadow to have done that otherwise. He could have just let the wagon do it's thing and bam mislynch.

However if shadow is town, then algebra still has a reasonably good chance of being scum.

Pedit: Are you willing to elaborate on shadow's scummy actions, aside from the Titus wagon?

I see I cross posted with Tweet but we think alike. And on this good night.