Mini 1830 - Game Over

[Gamma Emerald]

You would get a ton of towncred though for that lynch being right.

You're so full of shit it's spewing out of your mouth.

There's a reason people say 1:1 trades favor town, math whiz.

Town isn't going to follow me like the fucking pied piper just because I led one successful scum lynch.

Cease in point... you aren't hammered yet, but I think you've resolved that issue with your bullshit push on me.

Today would be 2 if CCC is scum.

[CCC]

GAMMA!

IN ORDER TO MISLYNCH TOWN, I HAVE TO STRONGARM A LYNCH ON MY OWN TEAM WHEN HE HAD NO PRESSURE WHATSOEVER.

THIS IS WHAT YOU ARE ASKING PEOPLE TO BELIEVE.

Gamma, if House were Town, he would have let the Manuel mislynch go through. Then he would have

used it

to push through his lynch on eager on day two. He still gets all the towncred,

plus

there's less townies around to do anything about it.

[Gamma Emerald]

Wow I can't believe I forgot that.

UnFOS: House

[House]

Wow I can't believe I forgot that.

UnFOS: House

Plot twist

:

What if Manuel was my other buddy and I traded him for eager?!

[House]

Wow I can't believe I forgot that.

UnFOS: House

Time out.

You're completely fine with thinking I'll sell out not just one,

but two buddies

for towncred...

BUT I WOULDN'T STOP A TOWN MISLYNCH AS SCUM?

This bullshit is all kinds of contrived and he's falling all over his own theories.

[VictorDeAngelo]

I'm sure I did, but it's too late, and I'm not bothering to self ISO myself nor your case. IIRC your case was mostly just signs that CCC doesn't play in a way that you expect town to. Looking over his last games he seems to be a newish player, with a somewhat unconventional playstyle. I didn't find anything incriminating and your strongest point was actually CCC correcting a mistake I made.

Terrible.

I'm coming for you if we have a single town flip between these two.

If you're that confident in your read on me, stop messing around with lynchbait and come at me now.

[VictorDeAngelo]

So, let me explain why this case is worthless.

I'm getting slight scumtwitches from a few players. Not enough to seriously consider any of them as likely scum yet, but the needles on my scum detectors are twitching slightly.

First is Gamma Emerald, for his post #39:

Do we know how many scum we're looking for?

11 players I'm assuming there's a few possibilities here...

3 teamed mafia, 8 town
2 teamed mafia, 1 3rd party (not cult), 8 town
2 teams of 2 mafia, 7 town

I'm betting 3 Mafia, 8 town or 3 mafia, 7 town, and one 3P.

He was right later - that

does

look scummish. He's keeping the size of the mafia team constant between his guesses, instead of keeping the total number of scum constant. This may mean nothing, or it may imply that he has actual knowledge of the size of the scumteam.

It's a bit thin, but it's got my attention.

The second one who's making me nervous is The_Jester; he seems to be doing quite a lot of dodging questions and discouraging speculation in this thread.

The third one pinging my scumdar is VictorDeAngelo, for his habit of not explaining his scumreads until he wants to move to a different target.

--------------

Since my vote is on none of the above, I think I should move it onto one of the above. Therefore:

VOTE: The Jester

So instead of vote the player that you implicitly feel the most suspicion for (hence, mentioning first), you vote your second suspect.

Scumdar ping.

The player mentioned first in a post is not automatically the most scummiest.

The person you actually voted, you didn't provide any examples of your allegations the way you did your first suspect (yet felt the need to vote the second anyway).

Scumdar ping.

Also a null tell. Players don't always provide examples, particularly in the early part of the day.

My experience so far suggests that the entirety of day one is going to be pretty much nullness. I've never been on a game on this site where a Mafia player was lynched on the first day, so I'd be surprised if anyone has anything even approaching a decent read on the first day.

Breeding apathy. Lots of scum motive for that.

Scumdar ping.

Sure, but could also just as easily come from town with no experience of a scum lynch day 1. Like CCC.

Furthermore, does a new player really think he can create apathy by simply convincing everyone day 1 doesn't matter. If so, why didn't eagersnake do the same thing? His play promoted activity from the onset. Would scumbuddies really set out to try uncoordinated strategies like this. It doesn't make sense.

--------------

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

Scumreading someone that hasn't even posted? How is that even vaguely town?

Opportunistic vote, jumping on his playstyle instead of alignment indicative content.

Scumdar ping.

I'll agree that the Green Nope read is bad.

Yes, Square not explaining was more playstyle than alignment based. I know that, you know that but we have probably seen this kind of thing more often. I recall misreading tons of players based on style when first started playing. On the other side of the fence but I've lost track of the number of times new players have scumread for the exact same thing. I don't find this suspicious from CCC.

Do you ever read other games? There are garnteed to be games were scum was hung D1 for legitimate reasons.

I haven't seen any where scum was hung D1. I expect to find that, of newbie games (with two scum out of nine players), less than two in nine games have scum lynched on day one. (If the lynches were random, it would be two in nine, but by and large scum will usually try to get town lynched, and on day one I expect that to skew the ratio against Town).

I guess I am pessimistic about day one. Later days, when there's some decent info to work with, I consider far more useful.

Yes, yes... discourage town. Breed that apathy!

Scumdar ping.

See above.

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

How much scummier is Box World compared to Pokémon Remake Emerald, and Old Man Victor?

Also, stop self-metaing at the drop of a hat.

Insignificantly scummier. I have no significant reads at all.

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

THIS is what not taking stances looks like.

He appears to be trying to read people, but his "insignificant" reads can change with minimal explanation.

Unlike Square, who is posting reads without going into detail why, CCC is prefacing his reads with an excuse to drop them.

Scumdar ping.

I agree with this. But he did similar things in Arctic mafia. His votes on Dunnstral and Drixx had little behind them and left himself open to change. And CCC was town that game.

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

Brilliant! You make an excuse for your scummy play to discourage others from lynching you because you're not experienced scum so you're trying to play up your newness.

Sorry bro, nice lesson from boring but she ruined that for you.

Scumdar ping.

This could be used to gain sympathy. But honestly, if you were town and kept getting mislynched, wouldn't you do the same.

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

No. No. No.

Town fighting town is EXACTLY what scum wants.

If town is busy bickering with each other, scum has plenty of noise to hide in.

HUGE scumdar ping.

Completely disagree. CCC is bang on the money here. Conflict is absolutely what you want day 1.

Also, you can't have it both ways. You have accused CCC of trying to create both apathy and conflict on day 1. You can't really have both on Day 1. Players at each other's throats are engaged. Whereas players disengaged aren't going to get into conflict.

Here's my current list, for example:

1. gerryoat - Null leaning Townish - hasn't stood out, but has been quietly scumhunting
2. Gamma Emerald - Null leaning scummish - more sure of the size of the mafia team than the total number of scum
3. Grendel - Null leaning strongly Town - doing a hefty share of scumhunting
4. RhazhBash - Near complete null, leaning weakly scummish - needs to do more scumhunting
5. CCC - Town all the way
6. Square World - Null leaning scummish - needs to explain himself a little more
7.

GreenNope

Huntress - Null for now - needs to post something
8. Manuel87 - Null leaning slightly scummish - don't think he's made a non-RVS vote yet (could be just cautious)
9. The_Jester - Null leaning very slightly scummish
10. eagerSnake - Townish. He's really making a lot of good points and asking a lot of right questions
11. VictorDeAngelo - Null leaning scummish. I don't like how he's shutting down certain questions, and I don't like his inexplicable Townread on Square World.

2 reads that doesn't have null in them. The one that isn't his own is appended with an "ish", which he can use to justify flipping with minimal explanation.

Scumdar ping.

I would find this scummy too. Except it seems more playstyle related than alignment indicative. His reads in arctic had similar use "-ish" and hedging.

So. Current reads:

Drixx: Somewhat scummish. Coming out of nowhere with intent to hammer may have been an attempt to force me to reveal whether or not I held a power role.
Dunnstral: Somewhat scummish. Encouraging me to claim my role after Drixx's intent to hammer may have been an attempt at rolefishing as well.
hayatoBL: Unchanged. Very slightly scummish.
Aragorn and Apricity: Unchanged. Insufficient data; still on the starting blocks.
Skrub: Unchanged. Asks questions, tries to get to the heart of the matter. Either scumhunting or pretending to scumhunt.
House: Somewhat townish. After leading a wagon to the intent to hammer point, and forcing me to the point of claiming my role, he did

not

promptly find some excuse to abandon the wagon and then try to fish for another player's role (and, in fact, continues to plead for someone to hammer me - up to the point of making claims easily disproven by post history)
Boring: Extremely townish, for reasons as described here, just a few posts ago.

If I get hammered, then I hope this helps the Townies on day two.

In a vaccum, these would be scummy. But looking over previous town games I would say that I think what your seeing is a player without a lot of confidence or experience more than scum.

[Manuel87]

As i said yesterday i dont give Gamma towncredit for jumping on the Eager wagon.
Also his case on House is just retarded.
And House himself pointed out the only reasonable szenario him being scum would make sense.

I would vote Gamma right now but he is at L-2 and i dont want to end the day before The_Jester is replaced or finally starts posting.
I would also consider CCC
Maybe Gerry and The_Jester as well but i see no way we dont lynch in Gamma or CCC today.

Pretty confident in House, Huntress and Victor being town.
Grendel is still a townlean but not as strong as the other 3.

[House]

Spoiler: punitively long wall

So, let me explain why this case is worthless.

I'm getting slight scumtwitches from a few players. Not enough to seriously consider any of them as likely scum yet, but the needles on my scum detectors are twitching slightly.

First is Gamma Emerald, for his post #39:

Do we know how many scum we're looking for?

11 players I'm assuming there's a few possibilities here...

3 teamed mafia, 8 town
2 teamed mafia, 1 3rd party (not cult), 8 town
2 teams of 2 mafia, 7 town

I'm betting 3 Mafia, 8 town or 3 mafia, 7 town, and one 3P.

He was right later - that

does

look scummish. He's keeping the size of the mafia team constant between his guesses, instead of keeping the total number of scum constant. This may mean nothing, or it may imply that he has actual knowledge of the size of the scumteam.

It's a bit thin, but it's got my attention.

The second one who's making me nervous is The_Jester; he seems to be doing quite a lot of dodging questions and discouraging speculation in this thread.

The third one pinging my scumdar is VictorDeAngelo, for his habit of not explaining his scumreads until he wants to move to a different target.

--------------

Since my vote is on none of the above, I think I should move it onto one of the above. Therefore:

VOTE: The Jester

So instead of vote the player that you implicitly feel the most suspicion for (hence, mentioning first), you vote your second suspect.

Scumdar ping.

The player mentioned first in a post is not automatically the most scummiest.

The person you actually voted, you didn't provide any examples of your allegations the way you did your first suspect (yet felt the need to vote the second anyway).

Scumdar ping.

Also a null tell. Players don't always provide examples, particularly in the early part of the day.

My experience so far suggests that the entirety of day one is going to be pretty much nullness. I've never been on a game on this site where a Mafia player was lynched on the first day, so I'd be surprised if anyone has anything even approaching a decent read on the first day.

Breeding apathy. Lots of scum motive for that.

Scumdar ping.

Sure, but could also just as easily come from town with no experience of a scum lynch day 1. Like CCC.

Furthermore, does a new player really think he can create apathy by simply convincing everyone day 1 doesn't matter. If so, why didn't eagersnake do the same thing? His play promoted activity from the onset. Would scumbuddies really set out to try uncoordinated strategies like this. It doesn't make sense.

--------------

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

Scumreading someone that hasn't even posted? How is that even vaguely town?

Opportunistic vote, jumping on his playstyle instead of alignment indicative content.

Scumdar ping.

I'll agree that the Green Nope read is bad.

Yes, Square not explaining was more playstyle than alignment based. I know that, you know that but we have probably seen this kind of thing more often. I recall misreading tons of players based on style when first started playing. On the other side of the fence but I've lost track of the number of times new players have scumread for the exact same thing. I don't find this suspicious from CCC.

Do you ever read other games? There are garnteed to be games were scum was hung D1 for legitimate reasons.

I haven't seen any where scum was hung D1. I expect to find that, of newbie games (with two scum out of nine players), less than two in nine games have scum lynched on day one. (If the lynches were random, it would be two in nine, but by and large scum will usually try to get town lynched, and on day one I expect that to skew the ratio against Town).

I guess I am pessimistic about day one. Later days, when there's some decent info to work with, I consider far more useful.

Yes, yes... discourage town. Breed that apathy!

Scumdar ping.

See above.

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

How much scummier is Box World compared to Pokémon Remake Emerald, and Old Man Victor?

Also, stop self-metaing at the drop of a hat.

Insignificantly scummier. I have no significant reads at all.

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

THIS is what not taking stances looks like.

He appears to be trying to read people, but his "insignificant" reads can change with minimal explanation.

Unlike Square, who is posting reads without going into detail why, CCC is prefacing his reads with an excuse to drop them.

Scumdar ping.

I agree with this. But he did similar things in Arctic mafia. His votes on Dunnstral and Drixx had little behind them and left himself open to change. And CCC was town that game.

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

Brilliant! You make an excuse for your scummy play to discourage others from lynching you because you're not experienced scum so you're trying to play up your newness.

Sorry bro, nice lesson from boring but she ruined that for you.

Scumdar ping.

This could be used to gain sympathy. But honestly, if you were town and kept getting mislynched, wouldn't you do the same.

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

No. No. No.

Town fighting town is EXACTLY what scum wants.

If town is busy bickering with each other, scum has plenty of noise to hide in.

HUGE scumdar ping.

Completely disagree. CCC is bang on the money here. Conflict is absolutely what you want day 1.

Also, you can't have it both ways. You have accused CCC of trying to create both apathy and conflict on day 1. You can't really have both on Day 1. Players at each other's throats are engaged. Whereas players disengaged aren't going to get into conflict.

Here's my current list, for example:

1. gerryoat - Null leaning Townish - hasn't stood out, but has been quietly scumhunting
2. Gamma Emerald - Null leaning scummish - more sure of the size of the mafia team than the total number of scum
3. Grendel - Null leaning strongly Town - doing a hefty share of scumhunting
4. RhazhBash - Near complete null, leaning weakly scummish - needs to do more scumhunting
5. CCC - Town all the way
6. Square World - Null leaning scummish - needs to explain himself a little more
7.

GreenNope

Huntress - Null for now - needs to post something
8. Manuel87 - Null leaning slightly scummish - don't think he's made a non-RVS vote yet (could be just cautious)
9. The_Jester - Null leaning very slightly scummish
10. eagerSnake - Townish. He's really making a lot of good points and asking a lot of right questions
11. VictorDeAngelo - Null leaning scummish. I don't like how he's shutting down certain questions, and I don't like his inexplicable Townread on Square World.

2 reads that doesn't have null in them. The one that isn't his own is appended with an "ish", which he can use to justify flipping with minimal explanation.

Scumdar ping.

I would find this scummy too. Except it seems more playstyle related than alignment indicative. His reads in arctic had similar use "-ish" and hedging.

So. Current reads:

Drixx: Somewhat scummish. Coming out of nowhere with intent to hammer may have been an attempt to force me to reveal whether or not I held a power role.
Dunnstral: Somewhat scummish. Encouraging me to claim my role after Drixx's intent to hammer may have been an attempt at rolefishing as well.
hayatoBL: Unchanged. Very slightly scummish.
Aragorn and Apricity: Unchanged. Insufficient data; still on the starting blocks.
Skrub: Unchanged. Asks questions, tries to get to the heart of the matter. Either scumhunting or pretending to scumhunt.
House: Somewhat townish. After leading a wagon to the intent to hammer point, and forcing me to the point of claiming my role, he did

not

promptly find some excuse to abandon the wagon and then try to fish for another player's role (and, in fact, continues to plead for someone to hammer me - up to the point of making claims easily disproven by post history)
Boring: Extremely townish, for reasons as described here, just a few posts ago.

If I get hammered, then I hope this helps the Townies on day two.

In a vaccum, these would be scummy. But looking over previous town games I would say that I think what your seeing is a player without a lot of confidence or experience more than scum.

To which I retort: boring

[VictorDeAngelo]

I'm just setting House to ignore for the rest of the day.

In fact time to hear more from anyone who isn't House/CCC/Gamma as that seems to be dominating the day.

[House]

And House himself pointed out the only reasonable szenario him being scum would make sense.

What scenario makes sense with me as scum?

The one where eager is bussing you and I bus him to save you instead?

What kind of fucked up scumteam would that even be???

Somebody so unstable as to go balls out on their own buddy on d1 will most likely go into nuclear meltdown mode if their other buddy throws then under the bus in return.

My entire point was that there IS NO scenario that makes sense with House!Scum.

Gamma got called out on his scum theater, so he voted eager to create distance. When eager fakeclaimed that bullshit, he used that excuse to hop off until Square forced him back on the wagon with his counter claim.

Gamma is caught scum and there's no way around that simple fact.

[House]

I'm just setting House to ignore for the rest of the day.

In fact time to hear more from anyone who isn't House/CCC/Gamma as that seems to be dominating the day.

Be happy. You convinced me of what CCC could not.

I'm coming for your ass after Gamma flips red. With two scum flips under my belt, how hard do you think it's going to be to stretch your neck too?

[Manuel87]

And House himself pointed out the only reasonable szenario him being scum would make sense.

What scenario makes sense with me as scum?
The one where eager is bussing you and I bus him to save you instead?
What kind of fucked up scumteam would that even be???
Somebody so unstable as to go balls out on their own buddy on d1 will most likely go into nuclear meltdown mode if their other buddy throws then under the bus in return.
My entire point was that there IS NO scenario that makes sense with House!Scum.
Gamma got called out on his scum theater, so he voted eager to create distance. When eager fakeclaimed that bullshit, he used that excuse to hop off until Square forced him back on the wagon with his counter claim.
Gamma is caught scum and there's no way around that simple fact.

Well i am not saying it makes sense. But its probably the only szenario that could benefit scum in the end.
@Gerry: What exactly is your scumread on Victor and why are you voting him over Gamma or CCC?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm just setting House to ignore for the rest of the day.

In fact time to hear more from anyone who isn't House/CCC/Gamma as that seems to be dominating the day.

Be happy. You convinced me of what CCC could not.

I'm coming for your ass after Gamma flips red. With two scum flips under my belt, how hard do you think it's going to be to stretch your neck too?

And when I flip green?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, did no one catch the fact

I challenged the confirmed town?

Do you really think scum!me would do that?

[VictorDeAngelo]

Also, did no one catch the fact

I challenged the confirmed town?

Do you really think scum!me would do that?

He would if he thought it would get him towncred.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think the risk would be too great for that.

[House]

Also, did no one catch the fact

I challenged the confirmed town?

Do you really think scum!me would do that?

Dude, there was precisely nothing town about the way you challenged me (also, I'm not confirmed town, just the closest thing we have at this point to it).

[House]

Also, since I'm pretty much a lock for NK barring a PR claim, let's control the claim.

If there is a doctor in the house that has no modifiers (x-shot, odd/even/non-consecutive night, etc), please claim and target me at night. I can protect you in return.

This does not apply to jailkeeper.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, since I'm pretty much a lock for NK barring a PR claim, let's control the claim.

If there is a doctor in the house that has no modifiers (x-shot, odd/even/non-consecutive night, etc), please claim and target me at night. I can protect you in return.

This does not apply to jailkeeper.

I doubt there is that many protective roles in the game.

FOS: House

I don't like the sound of this.

[House]

Also, since I'm pretty much a lock for NK barring a PR claim, let's control the claim.

If there is a doctor in the house that has no modifiers (x-shot, odd/even/non-consecutive night, etc), please claim and target me at night. I can protect you in return.

This does not apply to jailkeeper.

I doubt there is that many protective roles in the game.

FOS: House

I don't like the sound of this.

Lol, jumping at any perceived excuse to cast shade.

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah let's look at this closer. I'm currently thinking:
3 town PRs
2 mafia(1 left)
If I'm right, I'm guessing the PRs are one investigative, one protective, and the dead Jack-of-all-Trades. So how would you protect him? Simple: don't kill him. That would explain why you don't want to be roleblocked: you have to do the kill.

[House]

Yeah let's look at this closer. I'm currently thinking:
3 town PRs
2 mafia(1 left)
If I'm right, I'm guessing the PRs are one investigative, one protective, and the dead Jack-of-all-Trades. So how would you protect him? Simple: don't kill him. That would explain why you don't want to be roleblocked: you have to do the kill.

I don't care if I'm jailed. I just don't want the jailkeeper to claim because... Ta-da!... I'LL BE ROLEBLOCKED YOU MOTION!

[House]

Yeah let's look at this closer. I'm currently thinking:
3 town PRs
2 mafia(1 left)
If I'm right, I'm guessing the PRs are one investigative, one protective, and the dead Jack-of-all-Trades. So how would you protect him? Simple: don't kill him. That would explain why you don't want to be roleblocked: you have to do the kill.

I don't care if I'm jailed. I just don't want the jailkeeper to claim because... Ta-da!... I'LL BE ROLEBLOCKED YOU MORON!

EBWOP

[Gamma Emerald]

I could see you being Town or mafia PR. Everyone, since I'm not likely to survive the Day, please make sure to keep House in check in future Days.