Mini 1830 - Game Over

[CCC]

...strange, that. My stance on Grendel hasn't changed significantly.

I don't see how your unchanged read on him from the past is relevant to my assertion that I'll be expecting an explanation for any future changes.

It was relevant to the assertion that I'd somehow taken a firmer stance.

Ah, but you did.

You "confirmed" that Grendel and eager are your two top townreads. Before that "confirmation", we could only speculate due to the vagary of your readslist.

...I thought I was being clear.

Fair enough, then. My readslist, in order from Towniest to Scummiest:


CCC - Town all the way
eagerSnake - Townish. He's really making a lot of good points and asking a lot of right questions
Grendel - Null leaning strongly Town - no change
House - Null leaning strongly Town - his reads are rubbish, but I've seen him play exactly like this as Town before. (Approximately equal with Grendel)
gerryoat - Null leaning Townish - no change
Huntress - Null leaning very slightly Town - subject to rapid scumwards change if she doesn't explain herself a bit more soonish
The_Jester - Null leaning very slightly scummish - been very quiet lately
Manuel87 - Null leaning slightly scummish - don't think he's made a non-RVS vote yet (could be just cautious)
Square World - Null leaning slightly scummish - needs to explain himself a little more
VictorDeAngelo - Null leaning slightly scummish. He's explained his scumread on Rhazh, and while it's a poor case, I now think a lot of my doubt on him is due to us thinking in very different ways.
Gamma Emerald - Null leaning strongly scummish - suspicious interaction with Huntress

[House]

...strange, that. My stance on Grendel hasn't changed significantly.

I don't see how your unchanged read on him from the past is relevant to my assertion that I'll be expecting an explanation for any future changes.

It was relevant to the assertion that I'd somehow taken a firmer stance.

Ah, but you did.

You "confirmed" that Grendel and eager are your two top townreads. Before that "confirmation", we could only speculate due to the vagary of your readslist.

...I thought I was being clear.

Fair enough, then. My readslist, in order from Towniest to Scummiest:


CCC - Town all the way
eagerSnake - Townish. He's really making a lot of good points and asking a lot of right questions
Grendel - Null leaning strongly Town - no change
House - Null leaning strongly Town - his reads are rubbish, but I've seen him play exactly like this as Town before. (Approximately equal with Grendel)
gerryoat - Null leaning Townish - no change
Huntress - Null leaning very slightly Town - subject to rapid scumwards change if she doesn't explain herself a bit more soonish
The_Jester - Null leaning very slightly scummish - been very quiet lately
Manuel87 - Null leaning slightly scummish - don't think he's made a non-RVS vote yet (could be just cautious)
Square World - Null leaning slightly scummish - needs to explain himself a little more
VictorDeAngelo - Null leaning slightly scummish. He's explained his scumread on Rhazh, and while it's a poor case, I now think a lot of my doubt on him is due to us thinking in very different ways.
Gamma Emerald - Null leaning strongly scummish - suspicious interaction with Huntress

You're going to need to lose the timidity if you don't want to be mislynch bait. Yes, it's d1. Yes, everybody's reads are going to suck. But here's the thing... EVERYBODY ALSO KNOWS THIS!

Here's how I am interpreting your reads:

eagerSnake - Strong town
Grendel - Town
House - Town

gerryoat - town lean (or null-town)
Huntress - Null (that you are on the fence makes me doubt the town lean until that issue is cleared up)
The_Jester - Null (or null-scum, but it seems pretty slight)

Manuel87 - scum lean (or null-scum)
Square World - scum lean (or null-scum)
VictorDeAngelo - scum lean (or null-scum)

Gamma Emerald - Scum

---

Yep, I know that's not the reads you've assigned them, but that's how those vague reads you are giving come across to me (NOW). The fact that I have to beat you about the head and shoulders with a case to get clarity on those reads does a lot to make me scumread you.

My initial impression of your reads list was:

eagerSnake - Town

Grendel - null-town

House - null
gerryoat - null
Huntress - null
The_Jester - null
Manuel87 - null
Square World - null
VictorDeAngelo - null
Gamma Emerald - null

Can you see how this looks like a deliberate attempt to deprive town of information and refusal to take a stance?

I strongly encourage you to step up and own your reads. They won't be 100% accurate, nobody's will be... but providing clear explanations for those reads will inform everyone as to your thought processes.

Sort of like what I'm doing here. Do you better understand why I suspect you? Can you see how vagary draws suspicion from others?

Do you see why information is important for town not only to gather, but also share?

[House]

Day 1 lynch identified.

VOTE: CCC

Spoiler: Vote Here or Explain Why Not

I'm getting slight scumtwitches from a few players. Not enough to seriously consider any of them as likely scum yet, but the needles on my scum detectors are twitching slightly.

First is Gamma Emerald, for his post #39:

Do we know how many scum we're looking for?

11 players I'm assuming there's a few possibilities here...

3 teamed mafia, 8 town
2 teamed mafia, 1 3rd party (not cult), 8 town
2 teams of 2 mafia, 7 town

I'm betting 3 Mafia, 8 town or 3 mafia, 7 town, and one 3P.

He was right later - that

does

look scummish. He's keeping the size of the mafia team constant between his guesses, instead of keeping the total number of scum constant. This may mean nothing, or it may imply that he has actual knowledge of the size of the scumteam.

It's a bit thin, but it's got my attention.

The second one who's making me nervous is The_Jester; he seems to be doing quite a lot of dodging questions and discouraging speculation in this thread.

The third one pinging my scumdar is VictorDeAngelo, for his habit of not explaining his scumreads until he wants to move to a different target.

--------------

Since my vote is on none of the above, I think I should move it onto one of the above. Therefore:

VOTE: The Jester

So instead of vote the player that you implicitly feel the most suspicion for (hence, mentioning first), you vote your second suspect.

Scumdar ping.

The person you actually voted, you didn't provide any examples of your allegations the way you did your first suspect (yet felt the need to vote the second anyway).

Scumdar ping.

My experience so far suggests that the entirety of day one is going to be pretty much nullness. I've never been on a game on this site where a Mafia player was lynched on the first day, so I'd be surprised if anyone has anything even approaching a decent read on the first day.

Breeding apathy. Lots of scum motive for that.

Scumdar ping.

--------------

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

Scumreading someone that hasn't even posted? How is that even vaguely town?

Opportunistic vote, jumping on his playstyle instead of alignment indicative content.

Scumdar ping.

Do you ever read other games? There are garnteed to be games were scum was hung D1 for legitimate reasons.

I haven't seen any where scum was hung D1. I expect to find that, of newbie games (with two scum out of nine players), less than two in nine games have scum lynched on day one. (If the lynches were random, it would be two in nine, but by and large scum will usually try to get town lynched, and on day one I expect that to skew the ratio against Town).

I guess I am pessimistic about day one. Later days, when there's some decent info to work with, I consider far more useful.

Yes, yes... discourage town. Breed that apathy!

Scumdar ping.

In my previous post, I suggested that VictorDeAngelo and Gamma Emerald were pinging as very slightly scum. To that list I will now add GreenNope and Square World; the first for being completely absent, and the second for providing extremely short posts with no reasons for his votes. From these four, I will elect to park my vote (for the moment) on:

VOTE: Square World

How much scummier is Box World compared to Pokémon Remake Emerald, and Old Man Victor?

Also, stop self-metaing at the drop of a hat.

Insignificantly scummier. I have no significant reads at all.

Also, what do you mean by "self-metaing"?

THIS is what not taking stances looks like.

He appears to be trying to read people, but his "insignificant" reads can change with minimal explanation.

Unlike Square, who is posting reads without going into detail why, CCC is prefacing his reads with an excuse to drop them.

Scumdar ping.

Well in my last game with Grendel, it was the same for him. I don't think Grendel is scum this time, but I DEFINITELY think you are.

Believe it or not, this fits my Town meta too. Every game I've ever been Town in, I got lynched day one.

(This may be why I think so little of day one lynches).

Brilliant! You make an excuse for your scummy play to discourage others from lynching you because you're not experienced scum so you're trying to play up your newness.

Sorry bro, nice lesson from boring but she ruined that for you.

Scumdar ping.

What do reads list have to do with conflict?

Conflict causes people to talk and interact. From these interactions, reads can be formed, and refined.

No. No. No.

Town fighting town is EXACTLY what scum wants.

If town is busy bickering with each other, scum has plenty of noise to hide in.

HUGE scumdar ping.

Here's my current list, for example:

1. gerryoat - Null leaning Townish - hasn't stood out, but has been quietly scumhunting
2. Gamma Emerald - Null leaning scummish - more sure of the size of the mafia team than the total number of scum
3. Grendel - Null leaning strongly Town - doing a hefty share of scumhunting
4. RhazhBash - Near complete null, leaning weakly scummish - needs to do more scumhunting
5. CCC - Town all the way
6. Square World - Null leaning scummish - needs to explain himself a little more
7.

GreenNope

Huntress - Null for now - needs to post something
8. Manuel87 - Null leaning slightly scummish - don't think he's made a non-RVS vote yet (could be just cautious)
9. The_Jester - Null leaning very slightly scummish
10. eagerSnake - Townish. He's really making a lot of good points and asking a lot of right questions
11. VictorDeAngelo - Null leaning scummish. I don't like how he's shutting down certain questions, and I don't like his inexplicable Townread on Square World.

2 reads that doesn't have null in them. The one that isn't his own is appended with an "ish", which he can use to justify flipping with minimal explanation.

Scumdar ping.

I'm reposting this every page until I get responses from everyone.

Responses thus far:

eagerSnake

: Lot of valid points (no vote)

Gamma Emerald

: Feels boxed in (vote)

CCC

: Nuh-uh! You were wrong before!

[Eggman]

Vote Count 1.07

Not Voting

: The_Jester, gerryoat

Gamma Emerald

: Grendel, CCC

eagerSnake

: Square World

The_Jester

: Manuel87

House

: VictorDeAngelo

CCC

: Huntress, House, Gamma Emerald

Huntress

: eagerSnake

With 11 players alive, it takes

6

for a lynch.
The deadline for this day is (expired on 2016-09-26 18:00:00).

The_Jester has been prodded.

[Manuel87]

One thing I'd like to know, though... why did you feel it was necessary to unvote simply because rvs was over?

It wasnt only because RVS was over. I was leaning town on Jester at that time.

Finally caught up ill give a readlist and explain later what i think about House vs. CCC

Town:
Grendel: His posts feel honest and he is actively scumhunting. He is pushing his scumread and trys to convince others while not making up things.
House: He explained his scumread on CCC very well and started pushing him. He wasnt scared of changing his read on me when confronted. Also liked how he questioned Gamma.
Victor: Leaning town on him. I liked his reaction to Squares posts. I think he misunderstood my post about Square. I dont remember seeing something that felt scummy from him.
Huntress: Also townleaning. She replaced and didnt have much content since then but i liked her questions and reads.

Null:
Gerry: Still have no real read on Gerry but i am leaning more town then scum. I would like to see more from him a readlsit would be nice.
Square: As i said i dont like his playstyle mainly because its easy to play the same way as scum. His argument against Eager was good but as i said before it was awkward that he only referred to the Rhazh analysis.
Gamma: Didnt like his early game but he was pushed and probably got very defensive because of that. His read on Square is bad but i can understand why he feels that way. The situation with Huntress and House could have been him trying to buddy Huntress. Not reading him town but i wouldnt lynch him today.

Scum:
CCC: Leaning slight Scum here. Most of Houses arguments were true but looking at each of them individually they seem rather minor and most of them can be explained with a lot of self doubt which he showed right from the start. Also his discussion with House felt better towards the end.
Jester: His only real content was the explanation why he doesnt like Grendels play. He said all his scumreads are lynchbait but couldnt explain why when asked. On top of that he only scumread players that were talked about being scummy. For me this is scum trying to get on a lynchtrain from someone else while not confronting anyone himself. His townread on Square feels fake.
Eager: His vote on square was very bad with an even worse argument about his meta were he didnt mention that square always playes that way.
After that it felt like he was scared of backing down and pushed it further with silly reasoning like in 279 where he mentions Square using his meta as a defense when eager himself was the one bringing up his meta.

House vs. CCC:
I dont want to talk to much about this because its already a lot to read for everyone.
House has good points some i noticed but and some i missed like the argument about the readslist. I only disagree with the one about conflicts beeing good.
As long as both sides still consider the other one might be town and listen to their arguments open minded even a TvT conflict can help town.

For now i am happy with my vote where it is.
@House what are your thoughts on The_Jester? and would you consider lynching Eager or him today instead of CCC?

[eagerSnake]

How is voting someone who hasn't posted scummy? I wanted to kill them because they were lurking. Is that so bad? Usually it helps get some info out of them. Which it did.

FoS: Manuel

You haven't posted much, either. I have given you benefit because it seems that when you do post it is something you think is meaningful. Now I am starting to feel like you are coasting off your initial reads.

[Manuel87]

How is voting someone who hasn't posted scummy? I wanted to kill them because they were lurking. Is that so bad? Usually it helps get some info out of them. Which it did.

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?
If we lynch Square World and he flips town what information do we get?
Yes i think it is that bad.
So why did you feel the need to inform us about his scummy meta in 266?

[eagerSnake]

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?

I already came to the conclusion he was scum before he posted. Are you even reading the thread?

[eagerSnake]

So why did you feel the need to inform us about his scummy meta in 266?

That's not even what 266 was about..

[Manuel87]

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?

I already came to the conclusion he was scum before he posted. Are you even reading the thread?

How did you come to that conclusion?

So why did you feel the need to inform us about his scummy meta in 266?

That's not even what 266 was about..

Yeah sry you are right 266 was about you saying his townmeta is different and ignored the fact that he didnt explain his reads either
You also called his argument on your Rhazh read bullshit without explaining why you think its incorrect.

[House]

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?

I already came to the conclusion he was scum before he posted. Are you even reading the thread?

And just how did you do that?

[eagerSnake]

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?

I already came to the conclusion he was scum before he posted. Are you even reading the thread?

How did you come to that conclusion?

If he doesnt post how do you come to the conclusion he is scum?

I already came to the conclusion he was scum before he posted. Are you even reading the thread?

And just how did you do that?

A recent study showed that people tend to interpret a lack of information about another person in the most favorable way. I counteract it by wanting to kill everyone at first and taking silence as a sign that someone is trying to hide something. In short, everyone is suspicious by default, and lurking means you're not doing anything to make yourself less suspicious. I think I've explained this already.

[House]

@House what are your thoughts on The_Jester? and would you consider lynching Eager or him today instead of CCC?

I'm still happy with my vote and expecting responses to my case. Thanks for adding yours.

[House]

CCC: Leaning slight Scum here. Most of Houses arguments were true but looking at each of them individually they seem rather minor and most of them can be explained with a lot of self doubt which he showed right from the start. Also his discussion with House felt better towards the end.

Why? Because he's booking it up and sounds receptive to input?

If anything, it makes me suspect him more because I already directed him to the wiki and gave him advice in our previous game together.

His unwillingness to change his play just tells me that he has a vested interest in playing the noob.

[House]

CCC: Leaning slight Scum here. Most of Houses arguments were true but looking at each of them individually they seem rather minor and most of them can be explained with a lot of self doubt which he showed right from the start. Also his discussion with House felt better towards the end.

Why? Because he's noobing it up and sounds receptive to input?

If anything, it makes me suspect him more because I already directed him to the wiki and gave him advice in our previous game together.

His unwillingness to change his play just tells me that he has a vested interest in playing the noob.

EBWOP

[VictorDeAngelo]

Also also... you haven't even interacted with CCC... Meeeehhhhhhh

Not a good look.

Why are you so concerned about Huntress interactions at this point?

You don't

have

to interact with someone to assess them.

You don't even know how Huntress came to that opinion, so why are you so quick to defend her?

Does she need your help?

You asked her about this before anyone else had the chance. And now you try to forge an associative link because Gamma essentially didn't repeat your question.

Also I /barn Gamma's original point here. You don't have to interact with something to assess them, particularly in this case.

don't want to lynch Grendel, House, CCC, eagerSnake and VictorDeAngelo

anyone else just call me and i'll join

Guy voting eagersnake doesn't want to lynch eagersnake. Worse, he also doesn't want to push a wagon but will join any going on about half the game. Any towniness I saw on Square just dissipated.

Sorry, meant to have two parts to that post.

I dont like how Square world playes but its not a reason to lynch him.
What i dont like about him right now is that he mentioned how eagers analysis on RhazhBash sucks.
While i think he has a valid point that its not really an analysis but rather a summary of what said player posted that game, i dont understand why he only refers to the RhazhBash analysis and not to the ones on Victor and Gerry.

I'm putting Manuel back into my "would lynch today" pile for this post.

Why is that?

I didn't like how he said he didn't like square's but wouldn't lynch for it, but then his reasons sounded more like valid reasons to lynch. To put it another way, I didn't see him thinking the second two lines but then coming to the conclusion in the first line.

I dont like his

playstyle

but i dont think thats a reason to lynch someone.
In my first game on this side i played with Not_Mafia who played similar to him. I said the same thing about NM and read him Null-Town the whole game because i could see some meaning in the stuff he did.
If in that game we would have done what Eager was pushing for this game we would have killed NM and probably lost the game.
The other 2 lines were simply what i thought was off about squares read on Eager. He didnt care about the 2 summaries of Victor and Gerry but reacted to the 3rd one on Rhazh.
While i think his argument is true it also applies to the other 2 "reads" from Eager.

Ok, I might have got this one wrong. You are now not in my "would lynch today" pile.

Day 1 lynch identified.

VOTE: CCC

House has shifted from one easy lynch to another. The case feels mostly like noobtells more than scumtells but I'll not comment further until I get a chance to read Newbie 1727 in more detail.

[Manuel87]

I agree that he is doing that. Especially lines like "As I mentioned previously, I'm trying to signal that I'd be willing to follow along with anyone that can present a halfway decent case on someone." are feeling that way.
I dont know about your previous game together can you link me to it? If i find the time i will try to read a little bit into it.
CCC mentioned you jumped off the wagon in your previous game, what made you change your mind about him that you dont see this time?

Also Offtopic: i tried to kilck the "Get to know House." link but it said i am not authorised to read this Forum

[House]

I dont know about your previous game together can you link me to it?

Read the thread, it's been linked several times.

[House]

Also Offtopic: i tried to kilck the "Get to know House." link but it said i am not authorised to read this Forum

Idk why, it works fine for me.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also Offtopic: i tried to kilck the "Get to know House." link but it said i am not authorised to read this Forum

Idk why, it works fine for me.

You need permission to access GTKAS topics. @Manuel87 How old are you?

[gerryoat]

I have the day two lynch identified as well when CCC flips red.

Hint: If I have my way, his name will be a misnomer

Who? (Sorry if you answered this already, I'm rereading currently and quoting posts I find interesting enough to reply to

[gerryoat]

Your case does bring up a lot of valid points.

If his case brings up a lot of points, how come you want house to be lynched if CCC flips town? I mean, it's possible for town to mislynch someone here. Not everyone can be 100% in their reads. But, if the reads make sense, what is the problem?

[gerryoat]

Okay so

@House

Yes, I like your case on CCC. But, I have to admit CCC has had great responses to your points, do you not think he might be town at all? Or at least rethinking your fos a bit?

[gerryoat]

Next time I post, I'll be sure to have a reads list from towniest to scummiest, I'm glad the game is picking up.

[eagerSnake]

Your case does bring up a lot of valid points.

If his case brings up a lot of points, how come you want house to be lynched if CCC flips town? I mean, it's possible for town to mislynch someone here. Not everyone can be 100% in their reads. But, if the reads make sense, what is the problem?

I never said to blindly lynch House if CCC flips town.. I said to look at House with impunity.