Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #58

Oman[1](pwayne66)
Trojan Horse[1](Oman)

No Lynch[1](MoS)


Not Voting[3](vollkan, Tarhalindur, Trojan Horse)

I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all,

Claims would have a lot to do with it. Unless we lose the vig earlier.

Another thing is, MoS has been very anti-vig. Now with the quality of some of the players here (unfortunatly I include MoS in that), the vig is scums biggest threat. I mean, MoSvig would find scum well. Vollkvig is synomous with scumdeath to me (:(). You look at that kind of thing and think "what would scum want the vig to do?" the answer is a nokill, as they can win without a miskill easily enough.

I don't trust even myself to hit scum. As you'll see, I don't have a great track record right now. Now that you say it, though, I'm even more convinced that you're scum, since you trust me as vig to kill correctly. The person I would kill as vig is you. Luckily for you, no lynch is a better plan than gambling that I am correct today.

Also, mafia would want to lynch today, because that gives them the best chance of winning. There is no way to prevent the vig from killing tonight if we mislynch, because it's the obvious thing. However, by lynching today, the scum have a chance of smoking the vig out in the open with a bandwagon, which means they can kill the vig and hope that the vig misses his 50% chance of hitting scum. Even if the vig hits scum, 2:1 with a dead vig is decent odds for the mafia. Right now our odds are 4:2, and I'd prefer to have chances at scum at 3:2 and 2:1 than just hope that we'll reach 2:1 through a lucky vig kill.

Also, if I had to put money down on the table right now, I would say Oman and Tarhalindur are our scum. Pwayne also looks likely. Just sayin'.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay, gave it some thought. While my opinions have shifted slightly, I still think we need to lynch someone today.

Here's why: let's assume that the vig does not kill anymore, as MoS wants. (And actually, I now think that it IS best that the vig doesn't kill, unless it's necessary to save the game.) So day 4 dawns with 5 players left, and now we must lynch both scum, one by one. And what happens if we do? If there's a surviving cultie, we STILL lose. The vig would have to be the other survivor at the end for us to win, and I really doubt the scum would miss the vig with both of their nightkills.

That's the one thing MoS's plan doesn't cover: the chance that a cultie survives to the end, and that the vig does not. Pretty likely to happen too; if there is a cultie, it's probably Tar, and the scum aren't going to kill him. In that scenario, we have no time to spare: we must lynch a scum now, then another day 4, then finally lynch the cultie day 5. Add to that the fact that the vig can save us if we mislynch now (while he can't if we no lynch now and THEN mislynch day 4), and I'm convinced that we must lynch someone now.

Having said that, I'm ready to concede that if we do successfully lynch a scum now, the vig shouldn't kill tonight. Too risky that we'll end up 1:1:1 (without a vig) if the vig does kill, and that'll leave us with no chance to win. But we do need to lynch now. And if we mislynch, the vig must kill tonight, of course.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4? Why are you so sure Tar is the cultist? Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same. How do you know Tar is NOT the vig? Why can't the vig kill the next night instead of tonight, if we no lynch today?

I'd really like answers to these questions.

[Trojan Horse]

Gladly.

1.

Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4?

If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

2.

Why are you so sure Tar is the cultist?

I'm not totally sure. It's possible that there is no cultist; perhaps CKD tried to recruit, and failed. But if there is a cultist, Tar is the likeliest, since he revealed himself to be a vanilla townie day 1.

3.

Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same.

Because the scum are more interested in killing the vig than the cultie. If they figure out who the vig is, the vig is dead meat. If they figure out who the cultie is, they'll let him live, and shoot someone likelier to be the vig.

4.

How do you know Tar is NOT the vig?

Do you think he would've pulled those antics day 1 if he was the vig? That's even less likely than him doing it as scum.

5.

Why can't the vig kill the next night instead of tonight, if we no lynch today?

I never said the vig should kill tonight if we no lynch today. He definitely shouldn't. And he definitely should kill night 4, if things go no lynch- no vig- mislynch up to that point. But that can only get us a draw, and we'll probably lose, as I said for #1.

[vollkan]

Here's why: let's assume that the vig does not kill anymore, as MoS wants. (And actually, I now think that it IS best that the vig doesn't kill, unless it's necessary to save the game.) So day 4 dawns with 5 players left, and now we must lynch both scum, one by one. And what happens if we do? If there's a surviving cultie, we STILL lose. The vig would have to be the other survivor at the end for us to win, and I really doubt the scum would miss the vig with both of their nightkills.

Let's see...assuming there is a cult now (sorry to be so confusing with this):
NoLynch D3 = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1 (taking the likely worst-case scenario)

D4 opens at 2:2:1

MafLynch D4 = 2:1:1
--MafNK = 1:1:1
Mislynch D4 = 1:2:1
MafNK = 0:2:1. Loss. Mafia win.

Okay. I think we may have struck a problem. The 1:1:1 scenario requires No Lynch and cross-kills to win. As I said, the mafia will go for the cultist and the cultist will go for the mafia, each hoping the other takes out the townie. It makes for a sort of prisoner's dilemma, but it is not a good situation for us, since he have to rely on the scumdar of two individuals.

Moreover, even if we did "rely on the vig" as MoS suggested, that still puts us in 1:1:1 in the

best

scenario (hit mafia) and 1:2:0 in the worst.

1. Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4? If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

It actually looks like you are correct, given the numbers above.

2. Why are you so sure Tar is the cultist? I'm not totally sure. It's possible that there is no cultist; perhaps CKD tried to recruit, and failed. But if there is a cultist, Tar is the likeliest, since he revealed himself to be a vanilla townie day 1.

As I said earlier, it wouldn't surprise me if Tar was pulling a gambit here. The worst part is that if he isn't mafia, the mafia will know he is likely to be cult (because he can't be mafia). As we can see above, though, the problem is independent of Tar being the cultist. If we have a cultist, the above situation will happen.

4. How do you know Tar is NOT the vig? Do you think he would've pulled those antics day 1 if he was the vig? That's even less likely than him doing it as scum.

If he is vig, claiming vanilla was an immensely risky move (given the "Lynch all Vanillas") sentiment, but one that has paid off.

If he is mafia, same thing.

I don't think it is so unlikely that he would attempt this as either since it has 3 effects:
1) Cult fails to recruit N1
2) He safeguards himself from NKs (vig or mafia)
3) He safeguards himself from lynches

5. Why can't the vig kill the next night instead of tonight, if we no lynch today? I never said the vig should kill tonight if we no lynch today. He definitely shouldn't. And he definitely should kill night 4, if things go no lynch- no vig- mislynch up to that point. But that can only get us a draw, and we'll probably lose, as I said for #1.

See above, again.

MoS, I think your plan may be faulty on the basis of it not factoring in the cult adequately.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay. I think we may have struck a problem. The 1:1:1 scenario requires No Lynch and cross-kills to win. As I said, the mafia will go for the cultist and the cultist will go for the mafia, each hoping the other takes out the townie.

Cross-kills?? What cross-kills? The cultist (if there is one) doesn't have a nightkill. If it gets down to 1:1:1, we are 100% toast unless the final protown player is the vig. (Then the scum can be lynched, and the vig can kill the cultist.)

[vollkan]

Cross-kills?? What cross-kills? The cultist (if there is one) doesn't have a nightkill. If it gets down to 1:1:1, we are 100% toast unless the final protown player is the vig. (Then the scum can be lynched, and the vig can kill the cultist.)

Sorry. There is another game where I am having to do this same sort of stuff and it may have an SK in it. So 1:1:1 has become synonymous with "need cross-kills to win" in my brain.

You're absolutely correct.

[Oman]

The 1:1:1 scenario requires No Lynch and cross-kills to win. As I said, the mafia will go for the cultist and the cultist will go for the mafia, each hoping the other takes out the townie.

Cult don't kill.

I agree with this whole "vig no-kill" due to the numbers and logic that are actually coming out.

I don't think it is so unlikely that he would attempt this as either since it has 3 effects:
1) Cult fails to recruit N1
2) He safeguards himself from NKs (vig or mafia)
3) He safeguards himself from lynches

What an awesome gambit.

[Oman]

EBWOP: sorry simulposted, ignore my first line.

[pwayne66]

You guys are making my head hurt. Let me read and get a grasp. Numbers and probability are not my strong point...

[Tarhalindur]

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

Hmm. You are talking about a mislynch I assume, since the probability is only 50% where there are two scum. In the event of a mislynch, if the vig does not NK we have 2 scum and 2 non-scum, meaning that we have no hope of lynching mafia. If the vig succeeds, our situation is still only 2:1 or 1:1:1, both of which are worse for us than having no lynch and no vig.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

As I have said,
Mislynch = 3:2 (that's non-mafia : mafia, obviously there can be a cultist.)
MafNK = 2:2
VigNK = 2:1 (good) or 1:2 (loss)

If we no lynch and no vig, we end up at 3:2. I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all, yet alone when it carries the risk of a 1:2 loss.

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

We faced a similar situation in another game I was in. I was adamantly against any sort of directing, but the compromise we reached was that each player listed four preferential candidates. On the numbers here, though, vigging seems insensible.

You know, that's a rather big change of tune from the way you were talking earlier today when you were responding to my mass claim suggestion...

Crossed with Tar:

So, we're at lylo.

First order of business: Mass claim time?

Second order of business: Reading the thread for a change...

Trojan said it well: Absolutely not.

Let me show why:

Mislynch D3 = 3:2

MafNK = 2:2
We NEED the vig to NK mafia here to make it 2:1.

Now, on D4 if we lynch mafia we win, which should be easier because the vig can confirm himself.
However, even if something goes wrong and we mislynch D4, it becomes 1:1 with vig and mafia, giving us a draw. (At least, I think it is a draw)

In contrast,
if the vig is outed, the vig dies and the 2:1 situation is true LYLO.

Now,

Mafia lynch D3 = 4:1

MafNK = 3:1
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = 2:1 (see above. This is LYLO if vig has died, and lynch-or-draw if vig lives)
--Vig no NK = 3:1

In the 3:1 scenario,

Mislynch

= 2:1
MafNK town = 1:1
--VigNK mafia = 1:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = Vig no NK (since same target) = 1:1

In that situation, we again need to maximise the vig's survival

And, obvious

Maflynch

= 3:0 win

Therefore, there is no good reason to out the vig today and it will be very harmful.

That's an awfully big swing for you to make from the input of just one player. It reeks of scum changing his opinion to suit the new circumstances.

HoS: Vollkan

[vollkan]

Let's see...assuming there is a cult now (sorry to be so confusing with this):
NoLynch D3 = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1 (taking the likely worst-case scenario)
D4 opens at 2:2:1
MafLynch D4 = 2:1:1
--MafNK = 1:1:1
Mislynch D4 = 1:2:1
MafNK = 0:2:1. Loss. Mafia win.

Okay. I think we may have struck a problem. The 1:1:1 scenario requires No Lynch and cross-kills to win. As I said, the mafia will go for the cultist and the cultist will go for the mafia, each hoping the other takes out the townie. It makes for a sort of prisoner's dilemma, but it is not a good situation for us, since he have to rely on the scumdar of two individuals.

Moreover, even if we did "rely on the vig" as MoS suggested, that still puts us in 1:1:1 in the best scenario (hit mafia) and 1:2:0 in the worst.

Bolded is wrong.

A mislynch on D4 after a No Vig puts us at 1:2:1. Thus, if the mafia hit the vig (0:2:1), it doesn't matter if the vig succeeds; we still lose.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Gladly.

1.

Why can't the vig save us if we mislynch Day 4?

If we mislynch day 4 (after a no lynch today and a no kill tonight), we will have 2 scum, 1 vig, and 1 other player left. We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely). And that only gets us a draw. We'll have no remaining chance of winning in this scenario.

If we mislynch today, it's the exact same scenario. Literally. As you said, "We must then hope that the vig hits scum (likely) and the scum misses the vig (not likely)." And that's not even strictly true. Under your suggested scenario, the vig has 4 people to choose from, 2 of which are scum. That's a 50% chance. Under my scenario, *IF* we mislynch, the vig has a 66% chance of hitting scum that night. Not to mention the fact that in my scenario, we are far less likely to mislynch.

2.

Why are you so sure Tar is the cultist?

I'm not totally sure. It's possible that there is no cultist; perhaps CKD tried to recruit, and failed. But if there is a cultist, Tar is the likeliest, since he revealed himself to be a vanilla townie day 1.

To be honest, on the most general level, I find Tar the least likely person to have been culted the first night. There was too much WIFOM surrounding his claim, I don't think CKD would be willing to take that chance. He's a decently cautious player when it comes to night choices, from what I can tell. Tar is too big of a risk. Recruiting him is a big risk, big payoff scenario. It takes balls of steel to go for it, though. I think he would go for a safer recruitment instead, letting the focus go on Tar as a possible recruit, so that his recruit would be obfuscated in the background.

3.

Why are you saying there is a better chance of vig dying than cultist? They're both only 1 person, the odds are the same.

Because the scum are more interested in killing the vig than the cultie. If they figure out who the vig is, the vig is dead meat. If they figure out who the cultie is, they'll let him live, and shoot someone likelier to be the vig.

That's why we should no lynch before the mafia have the chance to find out who the vig is. The more information we give them, the better chance they have. I don't think it's very obvious right now who it is, though.

4.

How do you know Tar is NOT the vig?

Do you think he would've pulled those antics day 1 if he was the vig? That's even less likely than him doing it as scum.

Yes, I think he would. As both scum OR vig.

5.

Why can't the vig kill the next night instead of tonight, if we no lynch today?

I never said the vig should kill tonight if we no lynch today. He definitely shouldn't. And he definitely should kill night 4, if things go no lynch- no vig- mislynch up to that point. But that can only get us a draw, and we'll probably lose, as I said for #1.

Erm, that's not what I meant. You said, "Add to that the fact that the vig can save us if we mislynch now (while he can't if we no lynch now and THEN mislynch day 4)..." So I was asking what's keeping us from saving the vig kill until tomorrow night so that we can no lynch today and drastically improve our odds for both lynching AND vigging scum?

[Mastermind of Sin]

You know, that's a rather big change of tune from the way you were talking earlier today when you were responding to my mass claim suggestion...

Tar suggested mass claim today? That only makes me MORE sure that he's scum. That's a ridiculously scum-favored idea.

[Trojan Horse]

So I was asking what's keeping us from saving the vig kill until tomorrow night so that we can no lynch today and drastically improve our odds for both lynching AND vigging scum?

If we mislynch today, a successful vig kill tonight allows us to still have a chance to win. (We can win a 1:1:1 situation if our protown player is the vig.) After no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, all a vig kill can do is give us a chance to draw. That's the difference.

*sigh again*

I'll do some more pondering about this.

As for your last comment, MoS: yes, Tar was the first to suggest a mass claim today. But Oman later said he'd be okay with that, as did your predecessor, theo. For any of the three, it could have just been carelessness.

[Trojan Horse]

Heh. Just realized something else, MoS. I guess you and I are both hypocrites when it comes to judging what kind of risks our fellow players would take. I think CKD could very well have taken the risk and recruited the obvious recruit, Tar. But I don't think Tar would've taken the risk and acted as he did during day 1, if he was vig. You think CKD wouldn't take the risk, but Tar would.

I guess we're even, then.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So I was asking what's keeping us from saving the vig kill until tomorrow night so that we can no lynch today and drastically improve our odds for both lynching AND vigging scum?

If we mislynch today, a successful vig kill tonight allows us to still have a chance to win. (We can win a 1:1:1 situation if our protown player is the vig.) After no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch, all a vig kill can do is give us a chance to draw. That's the difference.

*sigh again*

I'll do some more pondering about this.

I would take a chance at a draw for a HIGHER chance of winning. We have a higher probability of winning with my plan. Just because the best we get if we completely fail is a draw, doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. My plan has a much higher chance of success than yours. In your scenario, a mislynch is more likely, and therefore more relevant. It's the opposite in mine.

As for your last comment, MoS: yes, Tar was the first to suggest a mass claim today. But Oman later said he'd be okay with that, as did your predecessor, theo. For any of the three, it could have just been carelessness.

*shrug* I know my alignment, but I also think Tar and Oman to be scum

already

not everyone who agrees with a mass claim is scum, but it definitely does NOT help their case.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*shrug* I know my alignment, but I also think Tar and Oman to be scum already. Not everyone who agrees with a mass claim is scum, but it definitely does NOT help their case.

fixed.

[vollkan]

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

Hmm. You are talking about a mislynch I assume, since the probability is only 50% where there are two scum. In the event of a mislynch, if the vig does not NK we have 2 scum and 2 non-scum, meaning that we have no hope of lynching mafia. If the vig succeeds, our situation is still only 2:1 or 1:1:1, both of which are worse for us than having no lynch and no vig.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

As I have said,
Mislynch = 3:2 (that's non-mafia : mafia, obviously there can be a cultist.)
MafNK = 2:2
VigNK = 2:1 (good) or 1:2 (loss)

If we no lynch and no vig, we end up at 3:2. I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all, yet alone when it carries the risk of a 1:2 loss.

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

We faced a similar situation in another game I was in. I was adamantly against any sort of directing, but the compromise we reached was that each player listed four preferential candidates. On the numbers here, though, vigging seems insensible.

You know, that's a rather big change of tune from the way you were talking earlier today when you were responding to my mass claim suggestion...

Crossed with Tar:

So, we're at lylo.

First order of business: Mass claim time?

Second order of business: Reading the thread for a change...

Trojan said it well: Absolutely not.

Let me show why:

Mislynch D3 = 3:2

MafNK = 2:2
We NEED the vig to NK mafia here to make it 2:1.

Now, on D4 if we lynch mafia we win, which should be easier because the vig can confirm himself.
However, even if something goes wrong and we mislynch D4, it becomes 1:1 with vig and mafia, giving us a draw. (At least, I think it is a draw)

In contrast,
if the vig is outed, the vig dies and the 2:1 situation is true LYLO.

Now,

Mafia lynch D3 = 4:1

MafNK = 3:1
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = 2:1 (see above. This is LYLO if vig has died, and lynch-or-draw if vig lives)
--Vig no NK = 3:1

In the 3:1 scenario,

Mislynch

= 2:1
MafNK town = 1:1
--VigNK mafia = 1:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = Vig no NK (since same target) = 1:1

In that situation, we again need to maximise the vig's survival

And, obvious

Maflynch

= 3:0 win

Therefore, there is no good reason to out the vig today and it will be very harmful.

That's an awfully big swing for you to make from the input of just one player. It reeks of scum changing his opinion to suit the new circumstances.

HoS: Vollkan

I can't identify a change in opinion. Am I missing something?

In the earlier (second post quoted) I was arguing that we should not consider a massclaim because the vig will be necessary if we were to mislynch.

In the later (first post quoted) I was arguin that a mislynch is, at absoulte best, 2:1 which is not as good as No Lynch No Vig.

[Oman]

Okay, I'd put money on Tar or TrojH being scum. Yes, this is mainly because of the explosive accusation on vollkan there.

[Mastermind of Sin]

At least we both agree Tar is your scumbuddy.

[Oman]

OR trojanscum.

I don't want to bus tar if i don't have to [/joke!]

[Mastermind of Sin]

So let's keep voting no lynch, please.

[Oman]

Unvote

A no-lynch seems good. A no-vig seems dubious, but the vig is prolly pwayne or someone who will listen to MoS over me, and I don't blame them, its only 3 years difference.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Says Oman the scum. Because it's really beneficial to go to night with 6 alive, have the vig kill someone (probably protown, since it's 3:2 in favor of town dying), and have the scum kill someone else to win the game or reduce us to the possibility of a draw AT BEST.

If this offhand support of a completely disastrous plan (offhand because he knew he couldn't support it directly) didn't convince you guys that Oman is scum, I don't know what will.