Mini Normal 1809: Game Over


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Post Post #1575 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:20 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 1572, Egg wrote:I've only skimmed since my last post (will read later), but that wasn't a slip from Wing. Calling it that is hyperbole just like calling mathblade confirmed scum was hyperbole. It's weird for Wing to 180 on me just because I didn't vote Elyse, but it's definitely not a slip.
Put yourself in my head at that time.

Reads are as follows: BBMolla town, KTS town, Mathblade scum. Elyse is likely the partner but it could be Egg (very small chance).

Elyse makes a post that removes all doubt and makes me confident that it is indeed Elyse/Mathblade. So, I vote Elyse putting her at L-1. Egg doesn't hammer. Conclusion that I draw is that Egg is town. So, no not a weird 180. It makes sense from where my head was at that point.
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Post Post #1576 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:20 pm

Post by Killthestory »

^ wolfy
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Post Post #1577 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:47 pm

Post by Egg »

In post 1519, Wingback wrote:Damnit Egg, I've seen how frustrating it is to get you to vote Elyse who you've been incorrectly townreading the whole game based on little more than above-average scumplay. I've outlined my reasons for why Elyse/Mathblade are the scumteam. BBMolla has pointed out why Elyse/Mathblade are the scumteam. KTS is voting Elyse. The one person who is townreading Elyse and who Elyse is buddying to is you. Based on that, why is it so hard for you to understand that I don't want you to get anywhere near LYLO? I don't trust you to vote scum. Sorry if that's offensive but this back-and-forth and reading past games of yours have convinced me that we figure this game out now or we're losing. Lynching obvscum today so you can get to LYLO isn't going to win us the game. I want us to win, not lose.

We seem to have a fundamental philosophical disagreement here. You can't just throw your hands in the air and hope that we win. We need to figure out all the answers, make a plan and implement it.
You're just misunderstanding the importance of making sure we GET to the next day. We absolutely have to be right with our next lynch or the game is over. I am completely shocked that you don't think I'm smart enough to look at everything again if we get another day and even more shocked that you want to risk not seeing another day over it. Assuming you are town, that is. It's an unneccesary risk to try to guess today and not go where we are more confident.
In post 1520, Wingback wrote:Given I've calmed down a little knowing that Egg is
town for sure
, I'm going to take a 10 min walk and come back and outline exactly why Elyse/Mathblade are the scumteam and why they need to hang. I'll answer all your questions in-depth as long as you are willing to read.
See, this is hyperbole too. You and Elyse are both doing it which is why it's hard to tell if you guys are town.

Didn't have as much time as I thought so I'll read the rest later
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Post Post #1578 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:50 pm

Post by Wingback »

How do you equate an "Egg is town for sure" confident townread with garbage "scumslips" that Elyse is making up out of thin air?

We absolutely have to get both lynches right or we lose. Regardless, it's a moot point now given I'm equally certain both Elyse and Mathblade are scum. Confident that Elyse is the right lynch so yeah, that's where I want to go.
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Post Post #1579 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:00 pm

Post by Egg »

Both are hyperbole. Said that already.
Wing wrote:We absolutely have to get both lynches right or we lose.
You and I agree on this.
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Post Post #1580 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:02 pm

Post by Egg »

Doing it your way is the mafia equivelant of a football reciever running before they've caught the ball. I don't want to drop the ball because my eye was on the endzone and not the ball.
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Post Post #1581 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:03 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 1580, Egg wrote:Doing it your way is the mafia equivelant of a football reciever running before they've caught the ball. I don't want to drop the ball because my eye was on the endzone and not the ball.
Like I said, it's a moot point now.

I'm equally certain Elyse and Mathblade are scum. In fact, slightly more certain on Elyse given the N1 shenanigans where cmit tried to target her and failed. I think it could point to a scum ascetic role of some sort. Roleblocking cmit of all people seems unlikely.
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Post Post #1582 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:07 pm

Post by Wingback »

It's not hyperbole to say that I'm sure you are town. I'm indeed quite sure. But unless you are arguing that it's alignment-indicative, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Talk to me about your read on Elyse.
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Post Post #1583 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:03 pm

Post by Wingback »

Hoopla'a premise of a rolestopper may not be completely wrong (in which case Math would have to be that rolestopper given it would have been used on Elyse N1). In that case, lynching Math might be more optimal.

In any case, tired of repeatedly explaining to people why lynching Elyse yields a better shot at winning dayplay-wise and I don't want to spend all of my time for this game explaining a theory point over scumtells so I'm leaning towards going with Mathblade.

Will wait for BBMolla though before deciding, he better show up soon.
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Post Post #1584 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:08 pm

Post by Dierfire »

VOTE COUNT 4.03


Elyse (2):, MathBlade, Wingback
Wingback (2): Elyse, Killthestory

No Vote (2): BBmolla, Egg

With 6 players living, a lynch requires 4/6 votes.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-08-24 22:00:00)

NOTES

None
Last edited by Dierfire on Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1585 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:09 pm

Post by Elyse »

Wingback effort does not mean town.

I prefer being scum and usually put more effort in when I'm scum.

@Egg
I use hyperbole all the time. It's a habit I should probably shake. But Wingback declaring you town by not voting me uses the assumption that MathBlade must be scum. If he's making this assumption as town, then there's no reason for him to not be voting MathBlade at first. Or he knows that we are not scum together because he's scum, meaning his declaration of you as town is correct.
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Post Post #1586 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:10 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 1585, Elyse wrote:Wingback effort does not mean town.

I prefer being scum and usually put more effort in when I'm scum.

@Egg
I use hyperbole all the time. It's a habit I should probably shake. But Wingback declaring you town by not voting me uses the assumption that MathBlade must be scum. If he's making this assumption as town, then there's no reason for him to not be voting MathBlade at first. Or he knows that we are not scum together because he's scum, meaning his declaration of you as town is correct.
Repeating the same point over and over doesn't make it true.

Already explained why lynching you is a more optimal play. Doesn't matter which read I'm more confident in. If I don't get both reads right, we lose anyways.
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Post Post #1587 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:12 pm

Post by Elyse »

But another point against Wingback is manipulating people by assuming that no one will ever change their mind. He does this by saying kts and BB would vote me right away 100% if we got to 5P LyLo and that Egg and I would vote him 100% in 3P LyLo no matter what. These are both false and are the only things he's using to justify lynching me over his buddy MathBlade.
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Post Post #1588 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:14 pm

Post by Wingback »

And no, effort doesn't mean town but the complexity of how someone develops their read is often alignment-indicative. Scum typically take positions that are optimal for scum like finding someone who's townreading you and having a mutual hard-townread on each other (you and Egg). You Egg townread is complete garbage. You are only reading him as town because you need an ally, and any competent scumhunter would be able to tell that how I approached my read on Egg vs how you did are worlds apart.
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Post Post #1589 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:15 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 1587, Elyse wrote:But another point against Wingback is manipulating people by assuming that no one will ever change their mind. He does this by saying kts and BB would vote me right away 100% if we got to 5P LyLo and that Egg and I would vote him 100% in 3P LyLo no matter what. These are both false and are the only things he's using to justify lynching me over his buddy MathBlade.
Manipulation is what you were doing with your Egg-read. You literally said Egg was town for pushing Hoopla with you but if Hoopla flipped town, you'd re-evaluate that read but didn't after I specifically asked you to several times. That's when I knew for certain that you were scum faking reads.
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Post Post #1590 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:18 pm

Post by Elyse »

I did reevaluate it

And he's still town

His actions today are town town town

Obviously him not hammering me makes him conftown to me but even before that
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Post Post #1591 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:19 pm

Post by Elyse »

But you didn't even address my point about you being manipulative.

You just said "you too!" which is what scum do when they have no answer
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Post Post #1592 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:21 pm

Post by Wingback »

I'm not "manipulating" anything by pointing out that with a no lynch and a kill on BB, a KTS vote for you would hand me the win. Similarly, with a no lynch and a kill on KTS, a BB vote would hand me the win. So, to argue that I'm scum pushing to lynch you TODAY is so ridiculous. Why would they re-evaluate their read when the person I would kill would have been scumreading you anyways?
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Post Post #1593 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:23 pm

Post by Wingback »

In post 1590, Elyse wrote:I did reevaluate it

And he's still town

His actions today are town town town

Obviously him not hammering me makes him conftown to me but even before that
This is not an honest attempt to read another player. This is rubbish buddying.

@Egg,
if you are incapable of distinguishing between someone trying to read you and someone buddying you, you need to re-assess how you are developing your reads.
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Post Post #1594 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:28 pm

Post by Elyse »

Everyone reevaluates in LyLo.

And what do you mean that's not an honest attempt to read him? I didn't sort him in that post.

I townread Egg

Hoopla flipped town

My townread weakened

He towned it up today

He's town

That's it
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Post Post #1595 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:32 pm

Post by Wingback »

Nope. He made a bunch of null posts today, some of which had me paranoid that you were town and that he was "compromise" voting you so I pushed him further to investigate. You didn't wonder if he was town or scum who said that he'd vote you. You simply tried to do what you can to get him to not vote you (ATE) which hopefully he'll figure out isn't alignment indicative for you once he reads your scumgames.

That is not a town motivated reaction. That was pure scum.
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Post Post #1596 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:34 pm

Post by Egg »

1526 is exactly why Wing not voting Math makes no sense. Why would you not be willing to lynch someone you are just assuming is scum? Especially before my lack of Elyse vote when you weren't sure on Elyse.
Wing wrote: you've been in the game from the beginning and Elyse crafted her game around you to get you to townread her, and possibly because I spent a good portion of D3 pushing you.
I wasn't even a threat to hypothetical Elysescum early in the game. I wasn't active and I haven't played a ton with her. Why would she craft her entire game specifically to me? You can't possibly believe half the shit you're spewing.
Wing wrote:Look at the game from an unbiased standpoint. If you're trying to decide which way you are leaning between me and Elyse, look at the amount of sheer man-hours I put into reading you. Calling you scum, then second-guessing my read based on your responses, scumreading you again for that claim to vote yourself, finding a scumgame where you did just that, then reading over two hundred posts of an ISO you linked me, seeing that the catchup mode and calling scumteams is a feature of your townplay, then re-assessing that and deducing that you a) wouldn't so blatantly tie your buddy Masq to a townie, and b) you wouldn't show up with Blank at five votes and ask what's the case on him if you were scum with him, and then finally coming down to you as town and Mathblade/Elyse as a scumteam. I doubt any scum player on site would be able to fake that level of read development. Even now, I had misgiving about your posting until I saw Elyse's response to me and concluded that it was Elyse/Mathblade.
This is a fair point. You've done a shit ton of research and why bother as scum? I mean for town cred obviously, but still. That's a ton of work just for "lol towncred".
Wing wrote:Contrast that with Elyse's read on you.
She's just reading you as town because she needs you as an ally.
When I posted my case on you, she pretended that I had some good points but kept townreading you encouraging me to bring up more points so it's set as a you vs me without Elyse committing to the argument. It's the easiest read ever.
You tell me to be unbiased and then say things like the bolded...
Wing wrote:Now, she's pointing out nonsensical stuff like "scumslips" when it was extremely obvious from context that I was trying to figure out which of was Mathblade's partner and that your non-hammer showed me that it was Elyse.
Scumslip is a ridiculous phrase to use there. I don't disagree with that. But the point she was making is that the only person who should see me as confirmed town is Elyse if she's even town. So saying you know I'm town is hyperbole and she matched it with hyperbole of her own. That's why I'm so frustrated. One of you (hell possibly both) is probably town and using manipulative persuasion techniques and can't own up to it. I mean it's too late now but if one of you had been like "yeah that's what I was doing, sorry", I'd probably town read that.
Elyse wrote:If you are so sure that MathBlade is scum and BB/kts are town that you're willing to consider Egg conftown by not hammering me, you should've been voting MathBlade this entire day.
^this. 100% this. Like if you (Wing) were a cop and came in with a guilty and were like "but let's lynch someone else", everyone would tell you you're bat shit crazy. Well, that seems to be about the level of confidence you are claiming with your mathblade read and yet you want to lynch Elyse.
Elyse wrote: @EggI am willing to lynch MathBlade over Wingback today BUT Wingback scumslipped and there's a 1% chance it could be like BB or something.
I don't know. I haven't ruled out you being scum yet and I think bbmolla has more than the 1% chance you mention. Is no lynching still worth it? I feel like there's still info to be gained as much as Wing is trying to make sure there isn't (whether intentional or not). At the very least, I feel like you and I are on the same page with how late game should be played and no lynch is very standard here. I'd rather have the extra info to work with than lose the game because whoever is town in this mess can't get organized and work together.

Wait. I just realized something skimming those meta links. Were none of those games where Elyse was town? Has she not been to LYLO as town or did Wing specifically pull scum games?

To Wing's 1531:
1) Nah, you're trying too hard to fit your narrative here. It's hard to say for sure because I wasn't there, but the "one game" arguement sounds better than your "meta match" arguement. Either way though, I didn't say Elyse was town for this. Simply that I felt she was winning the arguement. And the only reason we're discussing this is because you said you needed it to read me so it's even more pointless now than it was then.
2) All semantics and as pointless as point 1.
3) Oh, ok, yeah. I get you now. But you're assuming you know what killthestory would do which I still don't like. But you seem to believe it enough that maybe you're being honest here. Hmm... If our disagreement is strictly playstyle, which I'm not ruling out, you really need to convince me of that. Don't use hyperbole or talk to me like I'm dumb because I don't want to mislynch you for the loss just because we can't see eye to eye. It's not an easy decision. Don't pretend it is.

I don't like anything about Wing's interactions with killthestory on page 62 for what it's worth. Predicting where killthestory will vote sounds like scum mindset and the "blacklist" arguement is more semantics. Even when killthestory votes Wing, the reaction to the vote is very caught off guard and it feels like scum who thought they were in control until then.

Wing, I think everyone knows what you are saying as far as lynching Elyse before Math. What Elyse, myself, and now killthestory are trying to figure out is why the hell you think it's a good idea and can't comprehend that it's not.

Killthestory's 1562 is actually a very good point. Why would mathblade make that post as scum with Elyse? I also agree with 1564 that 1563 makes no sense. And the obvious answer to 1565 is that scum opportunism exists and momentum matters.
Wing wrote: I'm equally certain Elyse and Mathblade are scum. In fact, slightly more certain on Elyse given the N1 shenanigans where cmit tried to target her and failed. I think it could point to a scum ascetic role of some sort. Roleblocking cmit of all people seems unlikely.
Night 1 is actually worth revisiting. I forgot about it. Didn't cmit, masq, and grendel ALL claim failed N1 actions? Or was it just masq and cmit. If it was just the two, cmit being blocked does actually make some sense, especially if he said something that made it obvious he's a power role. It feels like this was all months ago for some reason and I'm very fuzzy on it.
Wing wrote:Talk to me about your read on Elyse.
I'm not willing to lynch Elyse at this time.
Wing wrote:Hoopla'a premise of a rolestopper may not be completely wrong (in which case Math would have to be that rolestopper given it would have been used on Elyse N1). In that case, lynching Math might be more optimal.
Rolestopper actually makes as much sense as roleblocker and if mathblade were to flip that, cmit's intended target (was is Elyse?) would have to be scum, right? That would make tomorrow easy.
Elyse wrote: @EggI use hyperbole all the time. It's a habit I should probably shake. But Wingback declaring you town by not voting me uses the assumption that MathBlade must be scum. If he's making this assumption as town, then there's no reason for him to not be voting MathBlade at first. Or he knows that we are not scum together because he's scum, meaning his declaration of you as town is correct.
Hey look, the exact thing I said in this very post I'd townread if one of Wing/Elyse said it. Hmm.

So conclusion tl;dr stuff is I want to either no lynch or lynch mathblade.

Preview edit:
wing wrote: @Egg, if you are incapable of distinguishing between someone trying to read you and someone buddying you, you need to re-assess how you are developing your reads.
If you are incapable of speaking to me like I'm a human being with a functioning brain, you need to re-assess how you are attempting to persuade me to work with you.
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Post Post #1597 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:39 pm

Post by Wingback »

Yeah, great. This is probably why you were so tunneled in on a mislynch all of day three. Your conception of town motivated and scum motivated behavior is so off. I'll try and respond when I'm less annoyed but I'm done arguing with you about why Elyse is a better lynch.

So, fine. Let's lynch Mathblade. (Also, the point about rolestopper is there so). I forgot about that. Given how Elyse and Mathblade are behaving, I doubt Mathblade is the rolestopper since they wouldn't be doing a one-sided bus otherwise but it's worth a shot.
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Post Post #1598 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:40 pm

Post by Wingback »

VOTE: Mathblade
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Post Post #1599 (ISO) » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:40 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Catching up now. Looks like lots of words.

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