Mini 521 (SMSM, Ended)

[WaterboyWaldo]

What are you talking about, Fiasco?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

he is blowing smoke.

and scum

vote fiasco

[ryan]

Wonder if some of the scum are (subtly) trying to lose on purpose.

I don't know, ARE you?

Vote: Fiasco

[Max]

The doc may have made a good choice
The Mafia may have not killed anyone

Discuss

[ryan]

The doc may have made a good choice
The Mafia may have not killed anyone

Discuss

Agreed. I can't see the mafia NOT trying to kill anyone, that makes no sense at all.

[Max]

The only reason for people not playing properly is because they are sad and aren't trying to win... Hence fiasco must be a jester

[mith]

Vote Count:

6 to lynch.

Fiasco: 3 (PookyTheMagicalBear, ryan, WaterboyWaldo)

[ryan]

The only reason for people not playing properly is because they are sad and aren't trying to win... Hence fiasco must be a jester

Or trying to pull a gambit off over the town's heads.

[Adele]

The only reason for people not playing properly is because they are sad and aren't trying to win... Hence fiasco must be a jester

This is a jesterless setup.

...isn't it?

[Max]

yes it was a joke I'm trying to prove that this fiasco wagon is useless. The only members of mafia that wouldn't kill are stupid ones the doc, if there is one, would never stop protecting just because his metagame buddies are scum he, to see more town, would use that against them in future games, in this rare instance we

should

use old games against people

[Sammich]

So the scum kills nobody and is just working about paranoia?

[ryan]

So the scum kills nobody and is just working about paranoia?

Why would scum not want to kill somebody? All I can think of is the doc protected well and we need to actually get some discussion going and some accusations thrown around, some wagons started/stopped, some people defending. That's my idea.

[Xdaamno]

I don't get Max's play, ftr. Very hard to explain vibes, but all his posts seem very random at this point.

Metagaming might cancel this out, though.

(Less setup speculation, more scum hunting.)

[Fiasco]

Wonder if some of the scum are (subtly) trying to lose on purpose.

I don't know, ARE you?

That makes no sense. If I were a subgame scum, why would I want to throw metagame suspicions on this game's subgame scum? (BOCWATT) Remember, we'll know everyone's sub-alignment after the subgame.

Max, I'd still like you to answer the question why you believed me to have caused the reroll. Not much hope at this point, though.

With a little effort you can think up reasons why absolutely anything is a scum tell. It seems some of you are set on doing that. Go ahead and lynch me if you want. Trying to avoid that outcome no longer seems worth the effort to me.

[WaterboyWaldo]

Man, all this meta-game sub-game stuff is really confusing. I can't even remember if Sarcastro was sub-killed or meta-killed.

[ryan]

Man, all this meta-game sub-game stuff is really confusing

. I can't even remember if Sarcastro was sub-killed or meta-killed.

110% agree with you on that note. You almost have to re-read everything just to get where we are currently.

[Fiasco]

he is blowing smoke.

and scum

This is a scummy thing to say, and not just because I'm not scum; given that we have no clear evidence on anyone,

any

claims that "X is scum" (as opposed to "X is more scummy than the others but still probably town") make more sense caused by bloodthirst than by an honest thought process. So I would say Pooky is more scummy than the others but still probably town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You are counterattacking me on Semantics?

Coward!

Roll out the Cannons! We shall chase the Turks into the Sea!

For the Red Flag! For the Glory of Constantine!

[Xdaamno]

Man, all this meta-game sub-game stuff is really confusing

. I can't even remember if Sarcastro was sub-killed or meta-killed.

110% agree with you on that note. You almost have to re-read everything just to get where we are currently.

The only thing I'm confused about is to how we go about identifying metagame scum when we've only had a single game :/

[Sammich]

No lynch, then no kill.
So basically, we have a Doc or a retarded-ass scum.


I think the Fiasco wagon is bad.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm going to lay out why I think Fiasco is MetaGame-Scum.

First off I'd like to say from my limited experience with Fiasco in games,(Verbose II) and from some of the posts of his I've read in Mafia Discussion, that I believe he is an excellent player and has a very good grasp of analysis and strategy.

Which is why when he backed off from metagame discussion, I don't think he did it solely because people wanted him to "just" play the subgame as he said, and as a subnote, even if he did actually choose to go with the flow and just play the subgame, I would have a hard time seeing a MetaTown Fiasco who started off wanting some metagame discussion to be so easily discouraged into just playing the subgame.

He also made this quote below which has been basically his stance on the relationship between the subgame and the metagame:

A metatownie who is subscum knows at least one of the subscum is a metatownie. That gives him an incentive to play for a subscum win. A metatownie who is subtown knows at least one of the subtown is a metatownie. That gives him an incentive to play for a subtown win.

Until we develop metagame suspicions, we should play just as if we were playing a typical mafia game.

This would be a mistake, you can see why this analysis is flawed if you simply apply the same line of reasoning to the metaScum perspective.

A metascum who is subscum knows at least one of the subscum is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subscum win. A metascum who is subtown knows at least one of the subtown is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subtown win.

Basically the incentives are the same and I would argue that the incentive the scum have to play for a win in the subgame are STRONGER than that of the town because of the information they have, having a subScum in either team is a lot stronger information than having a Subtown in either team.

Because the intuition works both ways, and the incentives for each side are similar in direction, it's basically useless for differentiating, if everybody plays to win in the subgame, how do you tell who is scum and who is town from the subgame?

I find it unlikely that Fiasco did not follow through on the next step of his analysis and come to the conclusion that the line of reasoning that he uses detailing why metatownies should play for a win is inapplicable because the exact same incentives exist for the mafia and such a variable is not a separating condition and thus is fairly useless in winning the overall metagame.

Considering that the roles are pretty much randomly distributed, why should we play for a town win when a town win basically limits our metalynching options to three people while a scumwin would give us many more options?

Also I thought that Fiasco's comments regarding my "rudeness" for not posting in the early part of the day, about playing the subgames for "fun", and the attack on me for semantics that borderlines on nitpicking show that he is getting rather desperate.

[Fiasco]

Pooky, you're right that I overlooked something, but wrong on what it is. You're also overlooking some other things. I probably won't get around to a full response until tomorrow.

If you're arguing for a scum win, why did you call for the scum to give themselves away yesterday? Sure, that could make sense as part of some scheme where one side agreed to lose, but no one had agreed on such a scheme. What would probably have happened if scum gave themselves away is that they'd get lynched/vigged/SKd and they'd lose.

[SomeStrangeSimenon]

A metascum who is subscum knows at least one of the subscum is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subscum win. A metascum who is subtown knows at least one of the subtown is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subtown win.

Not true.

A metascum who is subscum knows exactly which of his metabuddies are subscum and which aren't. This gives him the incentive to play towards the victory of whichever subteam has the highest percentage of subscum, so there is a higher chance of a metatownie being metalynched.

On the other hand, a metascum who is subtown only knows his own subalignment.

Right..?

Love, Flea...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Not true.

The highest number of possible scum in a team in this subgame is 3,

so even in the most extreme case of 1 metascum in a team of 3 and 2 metascum in a town of 9, the ratios of metascum to total(which would be probability of lynching metascum on a purely random basis) would be 33.3% for the scumteam and 22.22% for the townteam.

So the scum would STILL play for the win even if the subscum percentage was as small as possible while having still one scum.

[Xdaamno]

/agree with pooky

I doubt mith would overlook something like that.