Min 1787: Mafia PT

[toolenduso]

Hello! crazy were on a scum team together keyser!

HA, that's about the best advice I could've given you anyway for playing scum haha

Also I am a tracker. What is everybody else's roles?

[toolenduso]

I'd lean toward thinking the town doesn't have a tracker, but I definitely wouldn't eliminate the possibility until we know more.

[toolenduso]

I'm thinking dunn might be a PR based on this:

Of course I'm comfortable, I'm not getting lynched today after all

Couldn't see any obvious crumbing in his earlier posts.

[toolenduso]

I'm about to rebut you a little bit, HA. I just wanted to clear up that I'm not trying to send you signals to stop scumreading Keyser or anything -- just saying what I think is true. If you disagree, don't back down.

[toolenduso]

I wouldn't be too worried guys, I think we're good. H_A is basically the first real wagon we've had, and the first wagon on D1 usually does not go through ime.

And even if you are lynched, you and Keyser have distanced yourselves from each other pretty awesomely.

And I'm pretty sure I know the answer to the question Jake asked, but just in case you don't have one, let me know. I think I have an answer for you.

[toolenduso]

The response you gave basically means you can't use the thing I was gonna suggest. Which is fine, because I thought the thing I was going to suggest was just the truth.

[toolenduso]

ah. ok...I may have accidentally shifted things against HA.

apologies. this is not how i prefer to play scum. all I can hope is that either you get out of it or that if you get lynched me and keyser look so unimpeachable that nobody thinks to lynch us for the rest of the game.

[toolenduso]

Maybe if you get to L-1 you could claim doc or BG or some sort of protective role so we can try to out a town protective?

[toolenduso]

Yeah, the doc claim is like a kamikaze move. You almost definitely get lynched, but you hope you out a town PR in the meantime.

[toolenduso]

exactly

[toolenduso]

I am gonna laugh so frickin hard if this claim results in ira being lynched today.

[toolenduso]

welp, hey, we found our investigative.

[toolenduso]

*protective

[toolenduso]

Eh...I kinda feel like I've already done more coaching of the scum team than I'm used to. Don't want things to come off too manufactured in the thread.

And honestly feel like we've already got plenty of wifom going wrt who's scum with HA

[toolenduso]

I mean, if Keyser thinks that as town he would go for Robert at this point instead of HA, then that's fine.

But even as town I'd be thinking that you're the likelier scum, and that having a flip on you could possibly shed light on Robert anyway.

As a point of scum strategy, it could look bad for us to push against lynching you now.

[toolenduso]

Bye HA!

It's nice that we have an excuse to kill ira right now, because I think on top of his PR he also has better reads than anyone else in the game...

[toolenduso]

Hey, it's fine. I think we're in a decent place. As of right now my thought is let's have you kill ira and I track Dunnstral, but I plan on doing some rereading and analysis today, so if I find anything during that that looks more like PR-hinting than what I've seen with Dunn then we could go that route instead.

[toolenduso]

Also I'd prefer to wait to submit night actions until closer to deadline

[toolenduso]

OK yeah I've done some rereading and haven't found anything more solid to indicate a PR than dunnstral's #41. I remembered that Bins asked "don't people crumb anymore?" and then tyler and Jake responded to her, but I looked through early posts for all three and didn't find anything that looked like crumbing. Also no other hints that made me think they might be a PR.

So I still think our best plan is to have you kill ira and I track dunn. I'll submit the action tonight unless you have any objections.

[toolenduso]

I track dunnstral.

Keyser kills Ira.

[toolenduso]

Not sure I'm following you on bins

[toolenduso]

Dunn didn't go anywhere.

So it's possible he could be a passive PR, but probably less likely since town have two passive PRs we know about already -- BG and macho townie.

We can probably rule out that he's an active PR like an investigative.

Most likely is that he's just a VT imo.

[toolenduso]

Also gonna go ahead and second that the vote on Dunn is a bad move

Aw feck maybe Zach is an investigative...

[toolenduso]

Zachstralkita has now voted Dunn again so I'm not sure. We know Dunn is not an investigative even though he's clearly trying to make scum think he is. Unless he's a town role that shows up negative to tracker, which I doubt is possible in a normal game.

[toolenduso]

It looks like Zachstral might have gotten a result on zakk, and that might be why he has been calling him town all day, but Dunn seems to think the clear is on Robert.

[toolenduso]

I TRIED TO STOP THIS

Huh. Maybe Zachstral didn't get a result on the floof/zakk slot...

[toolenduso]

Well I hope everything's ok with him. I will continue the good (bad?) fight.

[toolenduso]

It appears I am partner-less for now. I'll have to look back at some stuff before deciding on night action choices. I was sure Zach was an investigative PR up until Desmond got to L-1 and Zach didn't say anything about a result.

[toolenduso]

Town claims:

-Dunn (VT)
-Robert (Macho VT)
-Bins (VT)

Unknown:

-Zachstral
-xyzzy
-Tyler
-Jaack
-Jake

[toolenduso]

Hey that was fast!

Welcome, Creature. We bussed the third scum D1, and neither of us appears to be in a whole lot of danger right now -- though that might change in the coming day phases based on PoE.

I'll note for my previous post that I don't think Bins' VT claim was explicit -- I'm pretty sure she said something that I took as a VT claim but wasn't sure about. At any rate, I'm pretty sure she's a VT because she said something about thinking another player was an investigative role.

[toolenduso]

Probably, yeah. IIRC she was getting some heat before the site went down. She's been pretty waffly (which she admits to) all game.

[toolenduso]

Just went back and looked at the D2 entrances of unclaimed players. Tyler, Jaack and Jake do not look like they came into the day with a result. Zach remains a possibility. The only one that looked like maybe they got a result that I didn't notice before was xyzzy, and that's just because xyzzy pried so hard when Dunn did his weird "Robert is 100% town and I'm a VT" thing. Makes me wonder if xyzzy might have been trying to feel out if somebody was going to claim an investigative.

The thing is that xyzzy is perhaps the most lynchable town out there, so it would super suck to NK xyzzy only to have them flip VT.

So still kinda thinking Zachstral may be the best to kill, and then maybe we could track xyzzy...

[toolenduso]

Me, lol.

Other than that I would say the top common townreads are probably Robert and Tyler.

I'm hunting for PRs because I still think it's pretty likely town has some sort of investigative and if that's true then we have to assume they already have one result and will get another result tonight. Which could bone us in the long run.

Robert's a claimed useless town PR.

[toolenduso]

Aw but he's such an easy mislynch though...

[toolenduso]

*they are such an easy mislynch

[toolenduso]

I feel like I've gotten better at it over time. My thoughts wrt to this game are that town probably does not have very much power, based on the fact that all we have is a tracker.

[toolenduso]

Ira flipped BG. My thought was that the macho was in there to fuck with town's understanding of who the bodyguard protected.

[toolenduso]

Rolecop is possible, yeah. That could explain why nobody appears to have come out swinging with a result on D2, an ambiguous result like "vanilla."

[toolenduso]

I actually crumbed tracker at the beginning of the game in case there was a rolecop or town tracker...I'm thinking I may have blown my chance to claim it, though, just because I made it clear in-thread that I was trying to get people not to talk about Dunn's weirdness (which I took as him thinking Zachstral got an innocent result on Robert). If I were a town investigative I should've been more skeptical.

[toolenduso]

It was kind of intentional, actually -- a move to establish town-minded motivation, like "stop talking about PRs lol you'll give scum information"

mostly it's just what I would have done as town though

[toolenduso]

I'll post tomorrow

[toolenduso]

Yeah, I went back and double-checked Tyler. He explicitly said before going to N1 that his two biggest scumreads are xyzzy and floof, and then he came right back D2 without changing his mind on either of them. Doesn't look like an investigative there.

I did have a thought that maybe this post from Zachstral was a crumb that he's a hider? Just because he was pointing out to zakk that his name was spelled Zach, in other words it has an h in it. Suppose it's equally likely he'd be pointing to the c, which could be for cop. If he is a hider or cop then he did not do a great job of crumbing his result, but yeah.

And on top of that Zachstral is mostly townread, so I still think he's our best kill. Maybe I could track xyzzy?

[toolenduso]

I guess you could do the kill and I do the trackin

[toolenduso]

Don't think so. I think we're still in a pretty good place.

[toolenduso]

Oh and we do have daychat btw so we can keep talking once the game thread opens.

[toolenduso]

I got paranoid about it for a second, and then reminded myself that it's exactly what townJake would say whether he's a PR or a VT. If he's a PR, he gets to acknowledge that somebody thought he was a PR without confirming that he is or revealing any information at all, basically confusing scum while laying the groundwork for him to claim later and make it believable. If he's a VT, then he potentially draws the night kill, effectively saving whatever PRs town does have for that night.

I did look back to see if I could find any crumbs in Jake's early ISO and I couldn't find anything. Also, he basically went into N1 suspecting Dunn more than anyone else (I think) and yet he came into D2 with a vote on Dunn.

[toolenduso]

Xyzzy didn't go anywhere, and Zachstral was a VT.

So....

[toolenduso]

Yeah it's pretty much down to those three, barring something weird. I'd put Jake at the top of that by poe.

[toolenduso]

ok so I had a thought.

If dunn is going to be basically cleared from this (based on the logic of why would a scum godfather fakeclaim cop after being cleared), then town is going to have the following clears automatically:

-Jake
-Dunn
-Bins (by virtue of her claim)
-Robert (cleared by Jake)

Which means that town then knows that of the five remaining players, two are scum.

Over time it gets tougher and tougher for you and I to not bus each other, as the number of players in that second pool decreases lynch by lynch.

So my thought is -- you come out agreeing with Jaack and trying to get Dunn lynched, and I go on the opposite side and say there's no way Dunn is scum. This pits us against each other, and we expect you to get lynched at some point. Preferably after we lynch Jaack.

Then we hope that the towncred I get from that, plus my bus of HA on D1, is enough to get me through to LyLo.

If you don't want to do it, that's fine, we can go the conventional route. Just a thought I had.

[toolenduso]

all right I slept on it and I'm not sure that's a good plan after all. Since town is headed into PoE mode for the rest of the game probably, they will either quickly or eventually realize that scum would have heavy motive to bus in this situation. Gambiting could just help highlight who the scum team is for them.

So, some other thoughts.

Jake's the only PR we need to kill as a priority because if he gets one more clear we are basically fucked. But with him out of the way, we don't need to necessarily prioritize Bins or Robertslot or Dunn in any particular order. Bins' role is now worthless; it doesn't matter if she sees that somebody is NK'd or tracked because she won't be able to tell who's doing it.

So we keep alive whoever is the least likely to lead town in the right direction, basically. From here on out it's a game of us shrinking their pool of clears versus them shrinking their pool of possibilities. And pretty much no matter what we do, in all likelihood those pools are gonna be dead even in terms of numbers for the rest of the game.

Bottom line: we will end up bussing each other. It's basically necessary. What we need to shoot for is having one of us endgame. It's all about self-preservation now.

[toolenduso]

Jake cleared Robert

[toolenduso]

Hey Zulfy, got your pm by the way. I did remember this was here, just didn't really have anything else to say.

All alone now. So cold. So dark.

Obviously Jake is going to be the night kill tonight. And I am pretty, pretty sure I won't be needing to track anyone. Not that there would be any harm necessarily, but if bins found out scum had a tracker then town would have more info about scum and I guess I'm just against giving town information on principle since information is scum's advantage.

Gonna use this pt to map out what needs to happen for the rest of the game. I'm actually pretty happy TOF didn't hammer xyzzy because that would've created kind of a tough situation for me as somebody who said that either xyzzy was scum or Tyler was. I'll probably still have to walk down that road eventually but yeah.

[toolenduso]

So, I kill Jake and then:

-7 players, 1 of which is scum. Jaack will have to be off my lynch list, so I'll be pushing for xyzzy. Let's say we lynch xyzzy. Kill...TOF? Dunn? I kinda want to keep Bins alive as long as she keeps townreading me. I guess I'll have to reevaluate at the end of the day.
-5 players, 1 of which is scum. I'll have to reconsider the possibility of Tyler being scum, and I'll have to weigh it against the possibility that I'm wrong about Jaack and Creature both going for Dunn the way they did. Let's say we lynch Jaack, since even if I try to get Tyler lynched I kind of doubt people will go for it. At night I kill, like, probably Dunn or Bins. TOF by now for sure if he's still alive.
-3 players, 1 of which is scum. Assuming Tyler is alive, it'll be a clear 1v1 between me and him.

Actually, that's true of anybody I'm left alive with. There are enough clears in my clear pool that one of them will have to live through to LyLo unless by some miracle people actually lynch Dunn.

I'll have to watch to see if people change their tune on Dunn through the next couple day phases, because if he is a lynch possibility then that would be great for me going into 3p LyLo. I suppose that also depends on whether Bins is still townreading me. Idk I'm a little scared of her, just since she's been mercurial and I feel like she keeps getting paranoid that I'm scum.

At any rate, I guess if I'm debating over whether I need Dunn or Bins alive in LyLo, that makes TOF the obvious kill tomorrow. Pretty much no way in hell that guy is getting lynched. He has mostly been dead weight for town, so that's nice to have around, but it's not worth sacrificing people who might be necessary to keep around if I want any chance of winning in LyLo.

[toolenduso]

I basically expect tomorrow to be a cake walk. Town is way ahead right now, so that removes any urgency to lynch the right person, people have wanted to lynch xyzzy all game and they haven't been around to defend themselves much.

It's the next couple day phases I'm more worried about.

[toolenduso]

Actually I just realized that if I can get Tyler lynched the day after xyzzy, I will have an amazingly good chance of winning, because then I'll got to 3p LyLo where the remaining clear will have to choose between me and Jaack. And I look squeaky clean next to Jaack.

[toolenduso]

Also sorry but I want a little more time to do work on the game before I submit the kill/ask for end of night.

[toolenduso]

Kill: Jake From State Farm

Eh. Ready to go to daytime.

[toolenduso]

Oh and I just want to kind of acknowledge in here for posterity that I'm largely responsible for the state scum is in right now because I pushed for the Zachstral NK. I don't exactly know atm where I should've looked to see that I was wrong, but somehow Dunn and Bins both saw Jake's hints that he was cop without me knowing so I guess I have to get better at finding that stuff.

[toolenduso]

All right. Good possibility I'm fucked now. Oh well.

[toolenduso]

Ha. Wow. Got xyzzy lynched at least. I struggle on for another day phase.

...in which I will probably get lynched. Idek how I'm going to approach reading Tyler and Jaack at this point lol.

[toolenduso]

I basically expect tomorrow to be a cake walk.

I said this. This was a thing I believed.

[toolenduso]

Thanks Zulfy! I am rooting for you too! Like, in general.

[toolenduso]

I'm just going to kind of gather my thoughts here in preparation for the day phase, from the perspective where I'm town.

Obviously I was wrong about one of my theories, because the fact that Creature was pushing Dunn along with Jaack made me think Jaack wasn't scum, and the fact that Keyser reacted to HA's doc claim by bussing him like crazy made me think that Tyler wasn't scum (because he kinda moved in the other direction after HA's claim). Interestingly, Jaack also took Tyler's approach after HA's claim -- but in a slightly different way. While Tyler was kind of assessing the situation, Jaack came in and said that doc claim is a standard for scum under pressure. In the same post, he votes for ira and reasons that we shouldn't be lynching a doc claim.

Between the two, I think Jaack looks worse, because it seems like he actually could have been trying to take Keyser's approach of bussing HA, but then hedged his bets a little more. Tyler's response to the whole thing...I mean, I can see scumminess in it, but parts of it also look like the kind of thing scum would be a little more conscious about. Like in #505 saying that he'll be looking at floof if HA flips scum. It's kind of blatantly setting up another lynch before the flip, I don't know if a player like Tyler would really do that.

Compared with that, I can see where Jaack's posts around the time could be more strategic.

Looking back over the rest of my notes on the two, I am remembering why I've been reading Tyler as town for so much of this game...after the floof set-up for example, he didn't follow through and push the slot. There have been a lot of small things, basically.

And conversely there have been a lot of small things with Jaack that have made him look worse. The vote on Robert at the very beginning of the game, for example. Or the time he voted zakk after arguing against a zakk lynch and gave the reasoning that it's better to be on a wagon.

Yeah. I am definitely leaning Jaack for last scum.

[toolenduso]

Also I've decided I'm going to kill Dunn tonight. This post is pretty much why:

I mean I did consider tool overnight. I really looked at him. He looked like town to me, but if it came down to it I'd vote him in mylo

[toolenduso]

Kill: Dunnstral

[toolenduso]

I'm literally going to cry myself to sleep if I have to choose between Tool and Tyler.

Sorry in advance, Bins. Looks like that's where it might be headed.

[toolenduso]

Curious what the dead thread is up to. They might actually be pretty bored at this point haha

[toolenduso]

Ircher coming out and voting Tyler is super, super helpful (assuming Jaack is lynched today). I was getting pretty nervous about the prospect of killing TOF and leaving Bins alive for LyLo because I thought it would just look super obvious that I was pruning the thorns and leaving alive the only person willing to vote Tyler over me in LyLo. Now, theoretically, I could kill either of them and still have a good shot at winning and Tyler wouldn't be able to argue in LyLo that the NKs pointed to me.

But that is assuming a lot of stuff, like Jaack being the lynch today and Ircher not changing his mind about me.

I will say that things are looking a lot brighter for scum right now than they have been for a while...like most of the game, actually.

[toolenduso]

Okely dokely then. Let's go to LyLo.

I have to say, even if scum loses -- and that is still very possible -- I'm happy I even made it to LyLo. Pretty much ever since Dunn's gambit I have not had high hopes of winning. And I was actually pretty sure I would lose starting with Tyler's case on my like...two weeks ago now.

[toolenduso]

Also my plan to get my next game design finished before the end of this mini just totally did not pan out lol. Oh well, I'll probably just push that through without signing up for another game once this one is done.

[toolenduso]

Hmmmmmm should I ask for a short night? Idk. Guess I need to figure out who I'm killing first.

[toolenduso]

Advantages to sparing (ie, not killing)...

Ircher:

-Is new, and therefore is relying on a limited reading of the game.
-Actually voted Tyler yesterday.
-Bins has been very paranoid throughout the game and could change her mind.

Bins:

-Has said, in a few different ways, that she will vote for Tyler over me in LyLo if left alive.
-Has been "relying on" my arguments for most of the game (I think most of the game? She said something to that effect a while ago).
-Ircher showed a sliver of doubt about me yesterday when he noticed my hopping back and forth between Creature and Xyzzy.

I'm realizing now that either way this goes down, I may need to show at least a little skepticism over the "clear" player I leave alive, solely by virtue of it being LyLo. Like with Bins it would probably be like "Why on earth would scum have claimed the way she did?" and with Ircher it'd have to be like "Is there any way in hell he could have gotten lucky by claiming macho?"

I guess between those two, Ircher is the tougher one to argue might be scum. Like, it was D1 when Robert claimed. You couldn't even argue that scum had a result that allowed him to know macho was in the game. And Macho VT is

such

a weird role.

aghghghghgghghghghg I still don't know who to keep alive.

I'm gonna have to think about this a little.

[toolenduso]

Leaning toward killing Ircher. I think that kill would point more toward Tyler, and I at least hope that Bins will vote Tyler before changing her mind.

[toolenduso]

ALL RIGHT I'M GONNA DO IT.

Kill: Ircher

Lawd have mercy.

[toolenduso]

Oh and yes, I am ok with the night ending early.

[toolenduso]

I'm so nervous.

[toolenduso]

[toolenduso]

i'm probably going to end up voting for tool jfc

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[toolenduso]

will rip to shreds shortly been waiting for this

I'm not afraid of you!

[toolenduso]

Basically I think this will come down to a gut decision from Bins. And I have absolutely no idea which way that would go. I'm not feeling all that confident ever since she said she'd probably vote me, but I mean yesterday she was saying Tyler was way scummier than me so it's still possible she changes her mind.

[toolenduso]

dsfvligflvilijlidfjalvjowqihotrjhvoiserhts;eqfahid;sv;sodihvoir

I kinda just want it to end