Min 1787: Mafia PT

[Zulfy]

I am rooting for you Tool.

You can do it.

[toolenduso]

I basically expect tomorrow to be a cake walk.

I said this. This was a thing I believed.

[toolenduso]

Thanks Zulfy! I am rooting for you too! Like, in general.

[toolenduso]

I'm just going to kind of gather my thoughts here in preparation for the day phase, from the perspective where I'm town.

Obviously I was wrong about one of my theories, because the fact that Creature was pushing Dunn along with Jaack made me think Jaack wasn't scum, and the fact that Keyser reacted to HA's doc claim by bussing him like crazy made me think that Tyler wasn't scum (because he kinda moved in the other direction after HA's claim). Interestingly, Jaack also took Tyler's approach after HA's claim -- but in a slightly different way. While Tyler was kind of assessing the situation, Jaack came in and said that doc claim is a standard for scum under pressure. In the same post, he votes for ira and reasons that we shouldn't be lynching a doc claim.

Between the two, I think Jaack looks worse, because it seems like he actually could have been trying to take Keyser's approach of bussing HA, but then hedged his bets a little more. Tyler's response to the whole thing...I mean, I can see scumminess in it, but parts of it also look like the kind of thing scum would be a little more conscious about. Like in #505 saying that he'll be looking at floof if HA flips scum. It's kind of blatantly setting up another lynch before the flip, I don't know if a player like Tyler would really do that.

Compared with that, I can see where Jaack's posts around the time could be more strategic.

Looking back over the rest of my notes on the two, I am remembering why I've been reading Tyler as town for so much of this game...after the floof set-up for example, he didn't follow through and push the slot. There have been a lot of small things, basically.

And conversely there have been a lot of small things with Jaack that have made him look worse. The vote on Robert at the very beginning of the game, for example. Or the time he voted zakk after arguing against a zakk lynch and gave the reasoning that it's better to be on a wagon.

Yeah. I am definitely leaning Jaack for last scum.

[toolenduso]

Also I've decided I'm going to kill Dunn tonight. This post is pretty much why:

I mean I did consider tool overnight. I really looked at him. He looked like town to me, but if it came down to it I'd vote him in mylo

[toolenduso]

Kill: Dunnstral

[toolenduso]

I'm literally going to cry myself to sleep if I have to choose between Tool and Tyler.

Sorry in advance, Bins. Looks like that's where it might be headed.

[toolenduso]

Curious what the dead thread is up to. They might actually be pretty bored at this point haha

[toolenduso]

Ircher coming out and voting Tyler is super, super helpful (assuming Jaack is lynched today). I was getting pretty nervous about the prospect of killing TOF and leaving Bins alive for LyLo because I thought it would just look super obvious that I was pruning the thorns and leaving alive the only person willing to vote Tyler over me in LyLo. Now, theoretically, I could kill either of them and still have a good shot at winning and Tyler wouldn't be able to argue in LyLo that the NKs pointed to me.

But that is assuming a lot of stuff, like Jaack being the lynch today and Ircher not changing his mind about me.

I will say that things are looking a lot brighter for scum right now than they have been for a while...like most of the game, actually.

[toolenduso]

Okely dokely then. Let's go to LyLo.

I have to say, even if scum loses -- and that is still very possible -- I'm happy I even made it to LyLo. Pretty much ever since Dunn's gambit I have not had high hopes of winning. And I was actually pretty sure I would lose starting with Tyler's case on my like...two weeks ago now.

[toolenduso]

Also my plan to get my next game design finished before the end of this mini just totally did not pan out lol. Oh well, I'll probably just push that through without signing up for another game once this one is done.

[Zulfy]

Also my plan to get my next game design finished before the end of this mini just totally did not pan out lol

I was wondering about that haha

[toolenduso]

Hmmmmmm should I ask for a short night? Idk. Guess I need to figure out who I'm killing first.

[toolenduso]

Advantages to sparing (ie, not killing)...

Ircher:

-Is new, and therefore is relying on a limited reading of the game.
-Actually voted Tyler yesterday.
-Bins has been very paranoid throughout the game and could change her mind.

Bins:

-Has said, in a few different ways, that she will vote for Tyler over me in LyLo if left alive.
-Has been "relying on" my arguments for most of the game (I think most of the game? She said something to that effect a while ago).
-Ircher showed a sliver of doubt about me yesterday when he noticed my hopping back and forth between Creature and Xyzzy.

I'm realizing now that either way this goes down, I may need to show at least a little skepticism over the "clear" player I leave alive, solely by virtue of it being LyLo. Like with Bins it would probably be like "Why on earth would scum have claimed the way she did?" and with Ircher it'd have to be like "Is there any way in hell he could have gotten lucky by claiming macho?"

I guess between those two, Ircher is the tougher one to argue might be scum. Like, it was D1 when Robert claimed. You couldn't even argue that scum had a result that allowed him to know macho was in the game. And Macho VT is

such

a weird role.

aghghghghgghghghghg I still don't know who to keep alive.

I'm gonna have to think about this a little.

[toolenduso]

Leaning toward killing Ircher. I think that kill would point more toward Tyler, and I at least hope that Bins will vote Tyler before changing her mind.

[Zulfy]

Once you decide, let me know if you want the day ended right away.

[Zulfy]

Night*

[toolenduso]

ALL RIGHT I'M GONNA DO IT.

Kill: Ircher

Lawd have mercy.

[toolenduso]

Oh and yes, I am ok with the night ending early.

[toolenduso]

I'm so nervous.

[Zulfy]

hype

[toolenduso]

[toolenduso]

i'm probably going to end up voting for tool jfc

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[toolenduso]

will rip to shreds shortly been waiting for this

I'm not afraid of you!

[toolenduso]

Basically I think this will come down to a gut decision from Bins. And I have absolutely no idea which way that would go. I'm not feeling all that confident ever since she said she'd probably vote me, but I mean yesterday she was saying Tyler was way scummier than me so it's still possible she changes her mind.