Mini 1800 - Game Over

[MathBlade]

For the record, I'm willing to go either way. If you think scum might kill my target just to waste the investigation, I could just investigate the scummiest players, and if they aren't killed that is a bit of a tell on it's own. I could at least verify that they are or are not VTs. Of course, if I am investigating by direction then it becomes obvious what the result is if I don't find a VT.

I do have a target in mind currently, if I don't get any other suggestions.

OTOH, I think scum would most likely just kill me outright, and I'd rather be jailed and miss using my power than get killed, so there is that.

What makes you think there is a jail in this setup?

[MathBlade]

I'm inclined to believe Karnos' claim. He's hinted at being PR during his pressure and I think scum would love to claim if they can come up with a good one and since scum have daytalk, if Karnos is scum his buddies could have helped him. I would have expected a claim to happen sooner if he was scum, so to say.
Also, the lack of a counterwagon being pushed tells me scum aren't interested in moving the attention away from Karnos.
I'm not sure about mathblade yet, he should be experienced enough to not assume scum hard-defend each other? If Wingback and I are Karnos' buddies, why would we want to endanger ourselves? For a long time it looked like Karnos was getting lynched no matter what. I'd rather lynch someone who hasn't given an opinion yet. I'll start with Johnny because he suggested it.

VOTE: Johnny
What are your reads on Wingback, Mecha and mathblade atm? Do you believe Karnos' claim?

@Qubixes: My first instinct was 'well that kinda cop is more useful to scum than to town' but that was before I checked the wiki and still thought it was just a fancy name for a vanilla cop. Best case scenario Karnos (if his claim is true and town-aligned) lives until lylo and cleared enough players, or identified scum, to get us a win. But that depends on other factors. I think 2 town cops will make town very strong and I have never seen it happen (tracker/watcher with cop sometimes ye, but not 2 kinds of cops) If there is another cop, I think they should decide for themselves whether to cc or not. I'm not cc'ing Karnos' claim, but if I had a cop-role I wouldn't cc for reasons I don't want to explain rn.

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

Then for Dierfire there is that vote/Unvote/vote to Karnos. When Karnos claimed then Dierfire posted they would look at Johnny and Kappy. They posted one thing where they said they want Johnny to place a vote but then votes Kappy with weak reasoning. I get sick vibes from that.

If we aren't lynching Karnos today, I would pick Dierfire.

VOTE: Dierfire

[MathBlade]

For the record, I'm willing to go either way. If you think scum might kill my target just to waste the investigation, I could just investigate the scummiest players, and if they aren't killed that is a bit of a tell on it's own. I could at least verify that they are or are not VTs. Of course, if I am investigating by direction then it becomes obvious what the result is if I don't find a VT.

I do have a target in mind currently, if I don't get any other suggestions.

OTOH, I think scum would most likely just kill me outright, and I'd rather be jailed and miss using my power than get killed, so there is that.

What makes you think there is a jail in this setup?

And furthermore why call it out here? God I wish we would lynch you right now as this is very bad PR hunting IMHO.

[MechaGoomba]

This does not benefit town in any way for this specific PR. If Karnos is scum and targets a scummy player and then Karnos flips scum, we in essence gain nothing except to put any players that Karnos claims were VT under a microscope. However if Karnos flips town then we'd know that those people were townfirms.

I am going to need you to explain to me, in as clear and concise a manner as you can manage, how this is in any way different from a basic cop.
Your reasoning seems to be "karnos could potentially be lying so we can't trust him." This is, in a sense, true. But

anyone

could be lying.
There is no game so airtight that it cannot possibly be false. There is no such thing as 100% trust, and so no investigative results can have 100% accuracy.

Mafia is not a game where you deal in certainty. The fact that you can't be certain someone is town doesn't mean you lynch them. The fact that you can't be certain someone is truthful doesn't mean you disregard them.
Stop worrying about the worst-case scenario. Stop dealing in what-ifs. Ask yourself: Do you have good enough reasoning to justify lynching an unCCed investigative role D1?

If you think you do, feel free to present it in whatever way you find most effective. If not, stop cluttering up the thread.

PS: You're still doing the thing where you townread me and scumread every group I'm in.
Maybe do a reread? If you're getting contradictory results, one of your assumptions is wrong.

PE:

What makes you think there is a jail in this setup?
And furthermore why call it out here? God I wish we would lynch you right now as this is very bad PR hunting IMHO.

How, exactly, does saying "I'd rather be jailed" result in the jailkeeper revealing themselves? Unless you think mafia have a watcher, in which case, 1) what makes you suspect that and 2) that makes scum!karnos really unlikely unless town has an absolute ton of power roles; I would never put Neapolitan and Watcher on the same scumteam.

[MathBlade]

I don't think it would result in the jail keeper (if one exists) outing themselves at night. Generally if a role is suggested I have seen conversations go on about it during the day. It is more about then potentially someone reacting to the idea of jailing Karnos or that type of discussion I want to avoid. It also implants ideas in people's heads without evidence to back them up. Then people if setup spec continues accidentally drop crumbs to if they are a PR or not. We don't have enough information to even suggest this. Which is why, respectfully I asked that question to Karnos. I also wanted to see what prompted him to think that specific way. While I believe Karnos is scum, I think most people subscribe IMHO incorrectly to Magnos's mantra. I only commented on it to prevent town derp which I have seen in the past.

I also understand anyone could be lying as well. However my town reads are earned through good posts and if you do bad ones you get increased scrutiny.

Yes I "did that thing" where you were in the group. However there are 13 players in the game and looking at all those categories results in a narrowing down of scope. Then you analyze those people and see what happens. It seems like the majority of people are favoring the information Karnos would in theory give over the analyzation they did of the slot. Some players are likely to be town within that scope. The scope becomes more focus when there are lynches to guide it further.

I do plan on doing a reread when things get a little less hectic at work anyway. It wouldn't be because you are in the net. Obviously there are three kinds of champions I look at. Not every case will have scum all the time. Usually at least one of those cases are right though.

[karnos]

What makes you think there is a jail in this setup?

I don't know if there is one or not. Just based on what I know, a doctor or jailkeeper could keep me safe at night. A doctor targeting me would just be common sense, I hope, so I don't even mention it. A jailkeeper might be reluctant to target me because he doesn't want to block usage of my power, but that is why I am outright asking for it to target me- I'd rather be alive and blocked than dead.

But as far as your later response- I don't want any acknowledgement of this in the thread. If you are the jailer, or doctor for that matter, please just consider me for your night action, don't respond in thread, don't crumb, don't out yourself in any way.

[Masquerade]

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

I was indeed first to vote Johnny. Then I voted Qubixes when Johnny's wagon built up, then I revoted Johnny, then I voted you. If you had issues with my votes, why didn't you address it when I made them?
And since you seem to really want to know why I'm voting you: Snork wasn't impressive at all. You so far have focussed most on Karnos, you also kept your vote there very long and in one of my previous posts I explained why I think that's scummy (683). You keep throwing shade my way but you don't engage with me and you ignored what I said about you in 593 and 669.

[Wingback]

@MagnaOfIllusion,

Reads til my official replacement in (Page 24 / 594) –

And Wingback immediately reverses field on karnos. Since we know that scum have Daytalk this could be a signal that something got worked out in the Mafia QT. And also starts distancing from the Mizzy (Masq) Town read which I dislike. Was ready to push him back to the Scum read pool but 567 makes solid sense. An element I dislike is that he hasn’t moved his vote from Pers who he isn’t scum-reading to Johnny by this point.

Mathblade’s entrance seems reasonable, if misguided on “Wingback and karnos are partners” angle. Snork who was a non-factor moves to soft Town read.

Why do you think Mathblade was misguided in calling me and Karnos partners when that seems to be your stance as well (or at least, that's what I'm gathering from the daytalk comments)?

I'm also not sure how Post 567 made solid sense from your perspective as you seem pro-Mathblade, anti-Wingback & Karnos.

What do you think of my reasoning for townreading Karnos? Do you think it is implausible for a town player to townread Karnos? If Karnos were to flip town, how would that affect your reads on the people that attacked and defended Karnos and why?

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

[Persivul]

Karnos should out all "VT" results,

Agreed.

but no "Not VT" results unless they contradict claims.

Not sure about this. Such person is either a town PR

or scum

. Personally I think it's worth the risk of outing a PR for the chance of catching scum. PLUS, if karnos is scum and fake claimed, this lets him off the hook. He just says he got a not VT result with no risk.

The town should not attempt to direct karnos.

Agreed.

[MathBlade]

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

I was indeed first to vote Johnny. Then I voted Qubixes when Johnny's wagon built up, then I revoted Johnny, then I voted you. If you had issues with my votes, why didn't you address it when I made them?
And since you seem to really want to know why I'm voting you: Snork wasn't impressive at all. You so far have focussed most on Karnos, you also kept your vote there very long and in one of my previous posts I explained why I think that's scummy (683). You keep throwing shade my way but you don't engage with me and you ignored what I said about you in 593 and 669.

Fine. From now on every time I talk with you I will use the damn quote button even though what I post after answers your question. When I am phone posting this is atrociously bad and annoying and makes it very hard to type anything but so you can tell when your posts are responded to.

Whoever since you seem to rehash the same damn points I will outline the answers for them previously.

The main argument in 593 was that my reads don't make sense. I took that feedback to heart and said I was rereading the thread in 585. To just recycle an argument that was already pointed out is sketchy as hell. The point in 593 was already addressed. People noticed flaws in what was clearly a sleep deprived reread which I then corrected.

However since you bring it up again I have seen scum hard defend a lot. Especially during a math tunnel. Anyone who knows me knows I fucking bring it. I will pressure my scum reads until they do something that makes me think they are townie. This causes things that other people may not be used to and forces people to take hard stances. In games that I am in I force my scum reads to take firm stances and show why they believe things.

Now in 669 -- Again a recycled argument. Addressed above though for your convenience.

You have been lynch shopping ever since Karnos's claims. Give us a read list. Towniest to scummiest towniest on top. Go.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree pretty hard with this. Karnos is a claimed weird cop, and I don't think "newbie scum" would pull that out of his ass. If Wingback were newbie scum he'd still be at my throat, not continuing to pressure others. They've both got pretty strong d1 townreads.

And this response is pretty compelling evidence that Johnny isn’t actually trying to sort players. There is no universal “How Newbies Play” guidebook as he is floating here. New players, like veteran players, play in whatever manner is their natural playstyle. Some players are naturally aggressive. Some players are not.

Pretending there is some easy flip chart to solve the play of any player with less than 1 year experience is scummy.

Because if I was so convinced he's scum I'd refuse to vote a scumread because of it, I'd be voting him right now.

You seems pretty convinced that karnos was scum pre-claim. Did the claim completely change your read? If not I do not believe for an instant that Pro-Town Mecha sees scum read karnos hop onto Math and thinks “Whelp karnos I think is scum and but due to his claim he’s likely not getting lynched. So I’m going to follow right along on the next wagon he hops on.”

Do you think karnos is bussing Math and vice-versa?

@MagnaofIllusion:
Suppose you knew that karnos was town; how would this affect your read on Johnny?
You've stated that you think the reason Johnny's wagon fell apart is that there were scum on it; are you willing to say who you think they are?

If I had a crystal ball and knew karnos was Town it would not greatly affect my Johnny as scum read. The link to karnos is only the decorative icing on the cake as it were. Shadyhood’s attack on the Sick slot was scummy (as I said in my recaps – did you read them?). Johnny’s posting has not been Town oriented. His large catch-up was filled with mostly IIoA and buddying. He’s only been engaged in the game when he comes under fire. No real attempt on his part to sort players into who might be scum.

And you are incorrect – I think Johnny’s wagon fell apart because he’s scum not because there was scum on it.

Here is the vote-count from 600 –

Official Vote Count

karnos

(5): qubixes, MechaGoomba, Persivul, Kappy, Dierfire

Wingback

(3): Mathblade, MagnaofIllusion, The Bulge

MechaGoomba

(1): karnos

Mathblade

(1): Wingback

Kappy

(1): Saru

Not Voting

(2): Masquerade, JohnnyFarrar

karnos gets put at L-1 and subsequently claims at 644.

Johnny picks up votes from Masq 657, Pers 658, yourself 659, and Wingback 673. That is 4 votes in 16 posts.

Johnny responds with some AtE (I’m just here playing the game poorly, oh woe is me) at 678.

Masq moves to Quib for not moving from karnos at 684 but moves back 692.

You move off to vote Math at 716 with a caveat that you think it might be a playstyle issue and leave the door open to return.

Masq moves to Math at 727 with some weak meta-based arguments.

So Johnny acquired 4 votes for reasons that hold up well to looking for scum intent in play. Yet the wagon dropped back to 2 votes with no strong opinions of Town oriented play from Johnny. And until I came into the thread no-one seemed willing to look further at him. Of those four votes one is a strong Town-read (Masq), another is a Maybe Town read (Pers), you are Null and Wingback is my weakest scum read (who I don’t think can be scum with Johnny based on the Shadyhood push). So I’m not seeing a wagon I think is likely scum driven. Yet it didn’t get legs. Given what has been presented against Johnny I don’t think scum stays away from that wagon as I am seeing if he is Town.

He has no reason to out a "Not VT" result unless they claim VT, and even if he outs every VT result the scum will still have to choose between killing PRs and conftown.

No he should out any result. If he is scum then scum is already going to know what he knows. Having him pro-actively have to produce a result that can be vetted / contradicted is important to being able to sort him accurately more quickly.

[MechaGoomba]

Did the claim completely change your read?

Given the fact that I'm not currently voting for karnos, what do you think?

Shadyhood’s attack on the Sick slot was scummy (as I said in my recaps – did you read them?).

You never said that and that never happened. Shady tunneled Persy, defended Sick.

And you are incorrect – I think Johnny’s wagon fell apart because he’s scum not because there was scum on it.

How is a scumwagon more likely than a townwagon to fall apart if not because the scum are influencing it?

So Johnny acquired 4 votes for reasons that hold up well to looking for scum intent in play. Yet the wagon dropped back to 2 votes with no strong opinions of Town oriented play from Johnny.

Which involved people unvoting, so unless scum have some sort of magic make-people-unvote ray, those players would have to be scum for this to be Johnny's scumbuddies helping him out.
Either state a concrete opinion or quit doubtcasting. "I don't understand why this thing happened, therefore scum did it" is terrible reasoning.

No he should out any result. If he is scum then scum is already going to know what he knows.

If I was so convinced karnos was scum I based my entire plan around it I WOULD BE VOTING FOR HIM RIGHT NOW.


You are making me less and less convinced in my Johnny scumread with every post you make accusing him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This does not benefit town in any way for this specific PR. If Karnos is scum and targets a scummy player and then Karnos flips scum, we in essence gain nothing except to put any players that Karnos claims were VT under a microscope. However if Karnos flips town then we'd know that those people were townfirms. I would advise caution if we aren't going to do the smart thing and lynch them.

See this is the sort of argument that I’m not sure comes from someone actually assessing the situation.

1. Making karnos claim his results leaves him open to being caught in a lie (someone counter-claiming his result as inaccurate). This covers both the case that he isn’t actually a Neopolitan or that he is scum and tries to fudge his results.
2. Making karnos claim also leaves him open to being busted by other roles (like Watcher / Tracker / Rolestopper / Jailkeeper / Etc).
3. Of course you take a claim by karnos with a grain of salt until he flips Town. That’s common sense 101. However lynching him and being wrong is absolutely worse than lynching another scum player Day 1 and karnos getting killed at Night as Town.

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

Then for Dierfire there is that vote/Unvote/vote to Karnos. When Karnos claimed then Dierfire posted they would look at Johnny and Kappy. They posted one thing where they said they want Johnny to place a vote but then votes Kappy with weak reasoning. I get sick vibes from that.

If we aren't lynching Karnos today, I would pick Dierfire.

VOTE: Dierfire

This whole post I find really questionable. You specifically went looking for the scum who “moved the wagon off of karnos” despite the fact the karnos’s claim moved the wagon off himself. And you devote a large paragraph to showing why you suspect Masq for both voting for Johnny and not properly explaining his vote for you. The Dierfire analysis is exactly the opposite – there is little in the way of explanation of scummy play and in fact Dier didn’t vote Johnny. But you vote Dier instead for voting away from your gut Town read onto another player instead. This vote does not make any sense in context of your posts hunting scum pushing the Johnny wagon.

Why did you not vote Masq in that spot?

Why do you think Mathblade was misguided in calling me and Karnos partners when that seems to be your stance as well (or at least, that's what I'm gathering from the daytalk comments)?

I don’t think it makes any sense pre-claim for you to karnos to call him Town if you are partners. Scum you has little to gain pushing against the wagon when karnos had been very scummy to that point. It would only tie them neatly in a package to be lynched in succession if karnos flips scum. In fact that only way it makes sense at all is if you were a Goon and karnos is indeed a Neopolitan (or some other important PR) and even then that is only a delaying action. And you didn’t do it in a way that drew significant attention and votes to yourself.

Now if karnos is Town – your positioning makes sense as scum trying to position themselves for Town cred in the case that karnos is lynched. But in that case my Johnny read would require rethining given how strongly Shadyhood defended your slot early on.

I'm also not sure how Post 567 made solid sense from your perspective as you seem pro-Mathblade, anti-Wingback & Karnos.

It makes sense as a post I can see coming from Town. You express several concerns about Mathblade’s stances which I agree with – primarily that you don’t make sense as a karnos partner. The thoughts I have about your potential as a karnos partner are well reflected in the first paragraph. You also address Quib and defend your position on karnos in a pretty clear and cogent manner which reads as Town oriented to me.

Keep in mind – Town can be wrong. I think you wrong about karnos but your method of getting there at the end of the day appears well reasoned.

What do you think of my reasoning for townreading Karnos? Do you think it is implausible for a town player to townread Karnos? If Karnos were to flip town, how would that affect your reads on the people that attacked and defended Karnos and why?

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

As stated above – I think you are wrong. I think you are putting too much credence in very detailed explanation about how a single string of events only makes sense from Town when others have pointed out why they are at best NAI. But again – you being wrong doesn’t inherently mean you are scum.

That said if karnos is Town my opinion would absolutely change for the reasons I said in my prior section – Town you defending scum karnos is feasible. I don’t see scum you defending scum karnos. But I certainly could see scum you defending a Town karnos who was strongly under fire and a strong possibility for the day’s lynch.

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

Null. On my first read-through his impact was minimal. I didn’t see anything that stuck out to me as scum posting but I didn’t see thinks that looked Town either. Since I have several stronger candidates I haven’t felt the need to dig into his ISO at this stage.

What is your read on Dier?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Given the fact that I'm not currently voting for karnos, what do you think?

I think you should answer the question. This sort of dodge is not helpful. I think karnos is scum but I’m not voting for him because it is stupid to do so given his claim and the game-state.

You never said that and that never happened. Shady tunneled Persy, defended Sick.

Yes that is correct. I meant to type his defense of the Sick slot …

Point remains – Shady’s play surrounding that slot shows scum motivation.

Which involved people unvoting, so unless scum have some sort of magic make-people-unvote ray, those players would have to be scum for this to be Johnny's scumbuddies helping him out.
Either state a concrete opinion or quit doubtcasting. "I don't understand why this thing happened, therefore scum did it" is terrible reasoning.

Are you dense? Serious question. Johnny acquired 4 votes in a fairly short period of time after karnos’s claim. If Johnny is Town then there is little chance scum are just going to let that wagon fall by the wayside – especially if karnos is scum. Establishing a strong alternate wagon would be important given the pushes by Math and Quib to lynch karnos even with the claim. Yet the wagon which could have been propelled forward by scum instead was allowed to fizzle.

Do you not have the ability to develop an assessment from how events happen relative to a game-state? Your opinion that "scumz must doooos it derp" is pretty limited in scope and development.

If I was so convinced karnos was scum I based my entire plan around it I WOULD BE VOTING FOR HIM RIGHT NOW.

Wow you can type in all-caps. Very useful

[MathBlade]

This does not benefit town in any way for this specific PR. If Karnos is scum and targets a scummy player and then Karnos flips scum, we in essence gain nothing except to put any players that Karnos claims were VT under a microscope. However if Karnos flips town then we'd know that those people were townfirms. I would advise caution if we aren't going to do the smart thing and lynch them.

See this is the sort of argument that I’m not sure comes from someone actually assessing the situation.

1. Making karnos claim his results leaves him open to being caught in a lie (someone counter-claiming his result as inaccurate). This covers both the case that he isn’t actually a Neopolitan or that he is scum and tries to fudge his results.
2. Making karnos claim also leaves him open to being busted by other roles (like Watcher / Tracker / Rolestopper / Jailkeeper / Etc).
3. Of course you take a claim by karnos with a grain of salt until he flips Town. That’s common sense 101. However lynching him and being wrong is absolutely worse than lynching another scum player Day 1 and karnos getting killed at Night as Town.

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

Then for Dierfire there is that vote/Unvote/vote to Karnos. When Karnos claimed then Dierfire posted they would look at Johnny and Kappy. They posted one thing where they said they want Johnny to place a vote but then votes Kappy with weak reasoning. I get sick vibes from that.

If we aren't lynching Karnos today, I would pick Dierfire.

VOTE: Dierfire

This whole post I find really questionable. You specifically went looking for the scum who “moved the wagon off of karnos” despite the fact the karnos’s claim moved the wagon off himself. And you devote a large paragraph to showing why you suspect Masq for both voting for Johnny and not properly explaining his vote for you. The Dierfire analysis is exactly the opposite – there is little in the way of explanation of scummy play and in fact Dier didn’t vote Johnny. But you vote Dier instead for voting away from your gut Town read onto another player instead. This vote does not make any sense in context of your posts hunting scum pushing the Johnny wagon.

Why did you not vote Masq in that spot?

Why do you think Mathblade was misguided in calling me and Karnos partners when that seems to be your stance as well (or at least, that's what I'm gathering from the daytalk comments)?

I don’t think it makes any sense pre-claim for you to karnos to call him Town if you are partners. Scum you has little to gain pushing against the wagon when karnos had been very scummy to that point. It would only tie them neatly in a package to be lynched in succession if karnos flips scum. In fact that only way it makes sense at all is if you were a Goon and karnos is indeed a Neopolitan (or some other important PR) and even then that is only a delaying action. And you didn’t do it in a way that drew significant attention and votes to yourself.

Now if karnos is Town – your positioning makes sense as scum trying to position themselves for Town cred in the case that karnos is lynched. But in that case my Johnny read would require rethining given how strongly Shadyhood defended your slot early on.

I'm also not sure how Post 567 made solid sense from your perspective as you seem pro-Mathblade, anti-Wingback & Karnos.

It makes sense as a post I can see coming from Town. You express several concerns about Mathblade’s stances which I agree with – primarily that you don’t make sense as a karnos partner. The thoughts I have about your potential as a karnos partner are well reflected in the first paragraph. You also address Quib and defend your position on karnos in a pretty clear and cogent manner which reads as Town oriented to me.

Keep in mind – Town can be wrong. I think you wrong about karnos but your method of getting there at the end of the day appears well reasoned.

What do you think of my reasoning for townreading Karnos? Do you think it is implausible for a town player to townread Karnos? If Karnos were to flip town, how would that affect your reads on the people that attacked and defended Karnos and why?

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

As stated above – I think you are wrong. I think you are putting too much credence in very detailed explanation about how a single string of events only makes sense from Town when others have pointed out why they are at best NAI. But again – you being wrong doesn’t inherently mean you are scum.

That said if karnos is Town my opinion would absolutely change for the reasons I said in my prior section – Town you defending scum karnos is feasible. I don’t see scum you defending scum karnos. But I certainly could see scum you defending a Town karnos who was strongly under fire and a strong possibility for the day’s lynch.

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

Null. On my first read-through his impact was minimal. I didn’t see anything that stuck out to me as scum posting but I didn’t see thinks that looked Town either. Since I have several stronger candidates I haven’t felt the need to dig into his ISO at this stage.

What is your read on Dier?

Magna, it is already demonstrated that I do not subscribe to the game theory that you do. From my POV especially since scum have daychat this claim just feels wrong. Like all kinds of ewwwwwww. No one has provided a decent reason why Karnos is town. In a face to face Mafia game in Chicago there was a werewolf cop (Cheetory6) who claimed cop and no one CC'd and so everyone assumed he was town and then coasted to a victory. So yes. If I do not believe cop claims I want them lynched because they can and will fuck with you if you let them.

Second post let me stop you right there before you spew more nonsense. The Karnos claim is what contributed to this clusterfuck but that is what Dierfire's L-1 actions need investigating. They have not came online since my vote and I want an explanation. Do I think Masquerade is scum? Yes I do. At this point do I think they are more scummy than Dierfire? No. I want Dierfire to fucking explain.

Gotta run to work now.

[MechaGoomba]

I think karnos is scum but I’m not voting for him because it is stupid to do so given his claim and the game-state.

I don't do that sort of thing. If someone's likely to be scum, vote them. Claims shift people into the "not likely scum" category when they're not CCed, and into the "definitely scum" category when they are.

Johnny acquired 4 votes in a fairly short period of time after karnos’s claim. If Johnny is Town then there is little chance scum are just going to let that wagon fall by the wayside – especially if karnos is scum. Establishing a strong alternate wagon would be important given the pushes by Math and Quib to lynch karnos even with the claim. Yet the wagon which could have been propelled forward by scum instead was allowed to fizzle.

1) Couldn't you have said that before I badgered you about it? The thing where you're as vague as you can possibly be until called on it is really annoying.
2) That statement assumes that a counterwagon would be needed. If karnos was town, mafia would be gleeful Math and Quib were trying to do their work for them. Given that you said your Johnny read is unaffected by whether or not karnos is scum, that doesn't really make sense.
3) This close to deadline, a fizzling wagon is a benefit for scum. If town ends up scrambling to not No Lynch, mafia can direct it as they please.
4) Insulting the intelligence of those that disagree with you is an easy way to ensure you'll never convince them to agree.


Right now I'm gut-reading Magna as scum, but I'm worried I'm confbiasing and/or blinded by frustration, so I'm not willing to vote him yet.
I'm planning to reread his ISO to find what it is that bugs me; if someone else could look as well to make sure it's not just me, that would be great.

PE:

No one has provided a decent reason why Karnos is town. In a face to face Mafia game in Chicago there was a werewolf cop (Cheetory6) who claimed cop and no one CC'd and so everyone assumed he was town and then coasted to a victory. So yes. If I do not believe cop claims I want them lynched because they can and will fuck with you if you let them.

Just because a bad thing happened once doesn't mean you have to be paranoid about it in every single future case.
How many times have you played in a game where an unCCed cop was town and provided useful results? I'd assume more than one.

[Masquerade]

Hm I was just starting to like magna better. I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations. My favourite lynch for today is mathblade, but I can go back to Johnny, keeping my eyes on the clock.
magna's thoughts on mathblade's vote on Dierfire matched mine to the point.

[GreyICE]

Official Vote Count

JohnnyFarrar

(5): Persivul, Wingback, MagnaofIllusion, qubixes, MechaGoomba

MathBlade

(2): karnos, Masquerade

Kappy

(2): Saru, Dierfire

Wingback

(1): The Bulge

Dierfire

(1): MathBlade

Not Voting

(2): Kappy, JohnnyFarrar

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-06-24 16:01:27)

I'm still looking for a replacement for Bulge.

Kappy is on VLA

[MechaGoomba]

The way Magna is saying "let's not lynch karnos" (correctly) but then building a lot of his reads (more than he admits) around the presumption of scum!karnos strikes me as someone who was blindsided by the claim and is having trouble adjusting their reads to fit with it.
He's making giant posts to justify his reads even though they're pretty commonly held, and if you sort through the posts you find lots of preflip associatives, lots of relatively weak stuff buried in the walls.
It feels like he's already decided who to scumread and now he's just writing the posts for it; sadly, that "fit the evidence to the reads mentality" is also something that pops up in town.

I'm not going to vote him: if I voted everyone who was confbiasing, I'd have to switch my target every post. I will, however, keep an eye on him.

PS: Magna, please make your posts just a bit more concise. As it stands, I can barely interact with your points because they're split up among 50 responses to various quotes.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations.

Please elaborate if this has to do with my slot predecessor or other game.

Magna, it is already demonstrated that I do not subscribe to the game theory that you do. From my POV especially since scum have daychat this claim just feels wrong. Like all kinds of ewwwwwww. No one has provided a decent reason why Karnos is town. In a face to face Mafia game in Chicago there was a werewolf cop (Cheetory6) who claimed cop and no one CC'd and so everyone assumed he was town and then coasted to a victory. So yes. If I do not believe cop claims I want them lynched because they can and will fuck with you if you let them.

Well regardless of whether you ascribe to the theory or not if enough players do then not much is to be had by effectively throwing a temper tantrum over not getting your way.

Your anecdote doesn’t really sway me given it was up to you as a player to assess the claim in context. There are very few claims that shouldn’t be taken with a grain of salt even if you think said player is Town before the claim.

Second post let me stop you right there before you spew more nonsense. The Karnos claim is what contributed to this clusterfuck but that is what Dierfire's L-1 actions need investigating. They have not came online since my vote and I want an explanation. Do I think Masquerade is scum? Yes I do. At this point do I think they are more scummy than Dierfire? No. I want Dierfire to fucking explain.

How is my observations “nonsense”? I’ve read through your post trail starting at 774

1) Couldn't you have said that before I badgered you about it? The thing where you're as vague as you can possibly be until called on it is really annoying.
2) That statement assumes that a counterwagon would be needed. If karnos was town, mafia would be gleeful Math and Quib were trying to do their work for them. Given that you said your Johnny read is unaffected by whether or not karnos is scum, that doesn't really make sense.
3) This close to deadline, a fizzling wagon is a benefit for scum. If town ends up scrambling to not No Lynch, mafia can direct it as they please.
4) Insulting the intelligence of those that disagree with you is an easy way to ensure you'll never convince them to agree.

1. I’m not going to drill down to the most explanatory level on every post I make. People complain about my post lengths as it so conciseness is of a premium. So sorry, that’s just not happening. Mafia is a game of assessing intent and making intuitive leaps. My expectation is that others are capable of doing so or will ask. I don’t think my original post was all that vague personally.

2. First I am reading karnos as scum and your hypothetical question was about my read on Johnny which does not hinge at all on Johnny being a counter-wagon. That is your wording not mine. The case about Johnny’s wagon revolves around it not getting any traction when there is plenty of in thread evidence supporting Johnny-scum. So I’m not sure, given what I have already posted, why you have trouble seeing my Johnny scum case as not being heavily influenced by a hypothetical of karnos Town.

3. A No Lynch also benefits scum. And given scum are in the significant minority a flash wagon at deadline does stand a chance of hitting one of them. The extent of control are implying scum have is somewhat overstated. Also – why is a fizzling wagon on hypothetical Town a benefit to scum again?

4. Um I responded in kind to you basically stating I didn’t understand what was going on. Your reaction to being called out on poor reasoning is a little bit out of proportion I think. Given I did state a concrete opinion (Johnny’s wagon disappated too easily this close to deadline to be Town) and your basically tried to doubtcast yourself (“You didn’t understand why something happened so scum did it which is terrible”) I’m unsure why I wouldn’t question whether you were actually trying to process motivations and reasons.

[MagnaofIllusion]

PS: Magna, please make your posts just a bit more concise. As it stands, I can barely interact with your points because they're split up among 50 responses to various quotes.

What the fuck is this? You knock me for not explaining in detail about my Johnny wagon read and now you are asking me to be more concise?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Is this aggression or frustration, magna?

[Dierfire]

@MathBlade

Now let's get to Dierfire's Unvote and revote -- Either way is fishy.
Let's assume Karnos is scum -- Then the Unvote and revote lets Karnos have a second bite at the apple where their claim magically comes in that the majority of people seem to just let go.
Let's assume Karnos is town -- Then the Unvote revote business looks like someone who is scared of the flip and what it would mean to be there.
Very rarely on a D1 lynch would I find that anyone has a reason to waffle like that and to not even state a reason other than they understand.

I can (partially) explain this now.
I removed my vote on karnos (610) because he was hinting at a role (578) but also speculating about the roles that other players had (580). The situation felt strange to me and I wanted to consider the sorts of roles that I thought that karnos might claim. When he started speculating about Masons (618) I decided that it was a good idea to force a claim from karnos, because I wanted to either lynch him or lock him into a claim immediately (as we've done).

[Dierfire]

@Wingback

Did some re-reading of the game. The townread that I most think I've been wrong about was Dierfire which is where I want to focus.

On Dierfire:

• Regarding Post 355/Post 559: What gave you the impression that Kappy's read on Sickofit in Post 181 was very strong? While he does have Sickofit at the bottom of his readslist, it was still early game and the reasons he posted make sense with the kind of reasoning expected that early. I don't know what level of reasoning you were expecting for page seven.
  
• Your entire read on Kappy seems to be based off of that and Kappy's early votehopping and while both of them are fine early game, neither are convincing reasons this late into the day. Kappy's early votehopping could just be him having "fun" in RVS so I don't find that point very strong either.
  
• The sequence of Post 354 and Post 355 looks like an "
  oh well, I have nothing to say, might as well respond to Kappy
  " rather than have any real desire to get your suspect lynched.
  
• Do you have any follow-up on your read on Mizzytastic that you mentioned in Post 494? It seems you like that he suspects the same people as you but other than that, you find his posts superficial and easy for mafia to generate?
  
• As Mathblade pointed out, your unvote in Post 610, and revote in Post 642 onto Karnos is hard to follow. If you unvoted because you were waiting to re-read and get a "good handle on the game," why revote before you did that?

Overall, I don't like that you spent much of the game tunneling Kappy with a short detour at Karnos. There's never any focus on the rest of the game or trying to get reads elsewhere. I don't find anything compelling in your push on Kappy either.

I thought that Kappy should have had a strong reason to read Sickofit1138 as Mafia in 181 because of the way that he described his thought process in 103.

Sick was originally strong scum read, but once explained himself it made sense.

My thought was that if he were reading him as Mafia again in 181, his bouncing read should take that earlier process into account, but it did not seem to do so. There's more to it than that, although I'm having trouble phrasing how I feel. The essence is that Kappy's read changed with frequencies and degrees that should require stronger reasons than what he gave.

I have two questions about your second point. First, do you think that the case on JohnnyFarrar (your current vote) is substantially stronger than the case on Kappy? If you say that it is I will surely ask you why. The second question is, if you feel that my case on Kappy is weak, why were you concerned (569) when I moved my vote away in 558? Some of that appears to have been a misunderstanding of my reasoning for voting for karnos, but the phrase "abandon the push on Kappy" doesn't quite sound as though you were thinking along the same lines there.

Your third point is partially correct; I didn't feel that I had anything contribute, so I went looking for something to do and found something by Kappy that I thought might warrant comment. I did want him lynched, though!

Mizzytastic is Masquerade now, right? I thought that his initial reason for reading karnos as Town was weak, but I didn't see anything suspicious about it. His point (657) that karnos might have claimed sooner if Mafia is fair, and I don't mind chewing on that for a while since karnos shouldn't be lynched today anyway. I've been reading qubixes as Town, so I disagree with his vote there (684), but he's been casting suspicion at those on the karnos wagon, so it at least fits that thought process. His vote on JohnnyFarrar also seemed to be based on weak but not suspicious reasons. I'm not caught up on everything since I last left, but when I was not thinking that he was suspicious.

See my previous post for an explanation of why I removed my vote on karnos and cast it again.

[Dierfire]

I've finished reading (although I'll admit to having difficulty keeping track of the conversation between MagnaofIllusion and MechaGoomba), but I have to go now. I'll be back within 12 hours.