Mini 1800 - Game Over

[MagnaofIllusion]

His predecessor was very close to the top of my scum list. It felt very much over the top, trying to present some kind of confident image. I think his wall looked alright when I read it. Could read it again to see if I find something fishy. His semi-attack on me about the misinterpretations did feel a bit like shade casting, but I'm of course a little biased. The sitting back while the Karnos wagon is building also seems rather scummy, especially considering he asks why Karnos isn't lynched yet in his read up. The reason I'm a little hesitant is the "I'm busy" part. I could see the lack of voting and general apathy result from just not being really engaged in the game. I feel like I don't have a clear grasp on the slot yet, though to be honest I don't feel very strong on anyone besides Karnos really.

Yeah I would ask you to read that post again with a critical eye. Notice there is lots of language that looks like he is assessing scum but really doesn't build to any conclusion.

As for the "I'm busy" angle - why should he not be engaged with the game? He replaced in of his own volition. He know the length of re-read (which by the way is small since I did it basically today FYI). Giving him a pass for not being engaged is a poor choice IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we're giving him a pass due to the claim, what should we expect in return? Should we collectively determine the target? Let him choose? If we let him choose, does he give VT results only, or all results?

I haven't thought it all through, but we should. If he's scum, whether neapolitan or not, we can use results against him.

It comes down to whether you think directing will be more useful if it prevents us from getting reads based on his "choices". Because the second we collectively say "You must investigate Player X or you get lynched tomorrow" then we are never getting any sort of read on him based on role mechanics.

Is it better to decide who we want potentially VT cleared out of scum suspects? Is it even viable to get enough players on board and agreeing to a secondary target? Do we want scum (if karnos is Town which I doubt) to have the clear information about how best to thwart the plan?

I lean to making him investigate on his own, confirming with the claimed target whether his information is good, and lynching him if we catch him in a lie or other information rises that throws doubt on his claimed investigation.

[GreyICE]

Official Vote Count

MathBlade

(3): karnos, MechaGoomba, Masquerade

JohnnyFarrar

(3): Persivul, Wingback, MagnaofIllusion

Kappy

(2): Saru, Dierfire

Wingback

(1): The Bulge

karnos

(1): MathBlade

Not Voting

(3): qubixes, Kappy, JohnnyFarrar

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-06-24 16:02:39)

The Bulge is being replaced. In light of the high number of replacements, I'm arbitrarily extending the deadline two days. I hope no players or factions feel hurt by this, I feel it's simply fair to give everyone time to catch up and discuss. I really didn't plan to have seven replacements on day 1.

[Saru]

I'm more worried about the timing of the votes/cases. It seems a bit delayed from what is going on. Maybe that is slightly unfair in the case of the sick wagon, because that was his first post.

But I feel that so far he hasn't been exploring many new directions, just grinding out the ones that were already there.

The Persivul attack felt over the top to me. I agree that his reasoning has been solid as far as I can see. I'll look at the wide net casting at some point.

Not entirely true. While you can argue that I was "grinding" out the Persivul vote, the reason for that vote was pretty much the same as it was for Sick. Reaction testing. The attack on Persivul itself was due to a misunderstanding on my part about the whole question and answer thing, which Mecha cleared up for me, and then which caused my subsequent unvote.

And personally, I felt that my vote on Kappy

was

exploring a new direction. At-least, in the sense that my vote came from, what I felt, was an

original

case that I made about him for his terrible Sick vs. Persivul post. That is 237. On top of that, didn't like that it felt he was dodging mine and other peoples' questions. Even now, I don't like that he first did little to no posting/contributing in Kansas, and now he is just V/LA even past the end of Day 1. We need to seriously look at that, at some point.

Lastly, for what it's worth, I like that you are pushing on your feeling about me not being a top town read for you while most others do. It makes me town read you because you're willing to stand out a lot more by doing so, which just seems like a risky thing for scum to do.

[qubixes]

@Magna: I reread the post again, and you're right. It actually doesn't look so good after all.

VOTE: JohnnyFarrar

Scum might just kill the target that we assign, right? Though I guess the best targets would be scummy looking people, that scum don't really want to NK. Also in case Karnos is town and there would be a scum busdriver, that would be less than fun...

[JohnnyFarrar]

One of Wingback or karnos is scum. No doubt in my mind. Possibly both.

I disagree pretty hard with this. Karnos is a claimed weird cop, and I don't think "newbie scum" would pull that out of his ass. If Wingback were newbie scum he'd still be at my throat, not continuing to pressure others. They've both got pretty strong d1 townreads.

Karnos is probably scum. 359 is so chock full of contradictions

I would and often do make the argument that town contradict themselves all the time, probably more than scum. Town are free to ramble and change their minds because they have less to lose, especially on d1.

The reason you don't lynch without a counter-claim is that, even if you are 99% sure you are right, the downside to Town if everyone is wrong is devastating to Town's chances. There are always additional chances to re-assess Day 2 or down the line with more information.

If we're giving him a pass due to the claim, what should we expect in return? Should we collectively determine the target? Let him choose? If we let him choose, does he give VT results only, or all results?

I haven't thought it all through, but we should. If he's scum, whether neapolitan or not, we can use results against him.

This is another reason why his claim would be garbage for scum, we can't actually do anything with it. If we tell him to target, scum kills him in hopes of throwing suspicion on whoever that was. If we don't tell him who to target, he's potentially outing town PRs with every result and or making the scum's search for PRs easier by stating which players are Vanilla.

[Saru]

One of Wingback or karnos is scum. No doubt in my mind. Possibly both.

I disagree pretty hard with this. Karnos is a claimed weird cop, and I don't think "newbie scum" would pull that out of his ass.

IIRC, scum can talk in PT even in the daytime. He doesn't have to be some expert scum player to make a "weird" claim. His partners could easily make that up for him. Just a thought.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Didn't occur to me. I'm still inclined to believe it, tho.

[qubixes]

@Saru: I missed that post when rescanning your ISO (it's interlocked in the Persivul exchange). That actually makes more sense now. I also agree that he needs to put out more content.

What do you think about Johnny?

@Johnny: and he can be scum neopolitan too...

[Wingback]

@qubixes, what of MoI's point about not lynching Karnos did you find persuasive that you didn't when Mechagoomba made the same point? I've quoted the posts one after the other to illustrate:

A Neapolitan is different from a Vanilla Cop in that they get "Vanilla Townie" or "Not Vanilla Townie" instead of just "Vanilla" or "Not Vanilla". In other words, any Vanilla Townie targeted by a Neapolitan can be confirmed as 100% town. That would be extremely valuable during LYLO, and, as long as he doesn't reveal any "Not Vanilla Townie" results unless they claim vanilla,

he'll only be making things harder for scum by making them choose between PR hunting and eliminating conftown.

Rule Number 1 of Mafia – in a closed set-up you do NOT lynch a claimed investigation role that is un-CCed Day 1. You just don’t. If the claim is countered? Sure it is possible. We will get more information (from Karnos’s potential claimed results, future interactions and Nightkills) to sort him.

Specifically on Karnos’s claim – Neopolitan is actually stronger than some other Non-Alignment Cop roles as it provides 100% clearance with Vanilla Town results. It isn’t as strong for catching scum outside of incorrect VT claims but

vetting VTs is huge from a standpoint of putting scum in a bad position as to whether to choose to kill suspected Power-roles or kill VTs who are 100% clear. Any time you handcuff the scum in some way you are benefitting Town.

Also, for your suspicion of Johnny, I made similar points about Johnny's wall post earlier:

JohnnyFarrar (Shadyhood's replacement) is another possible candidate for scum regardless of what Karnos flips. He sounds way too certain about his scumflip repeatedly asking why Karnos isn't already dead and agreeing with pretty much every case on Karnos. The day is not even halfway done. It's been six days since the game started and we still have eight days left. A bunch of people either need to catch up or be replaced and there's plenty more discussion to have. I think it's obvious why we haven't lynched yet. I think it's partly just rhetoric but I find it very overblown and the confidence doesn't match up to what I'd expect from someone who just replaced into the game and is catching up. It sounds like he's pre-decided he's pushing Karnos.

@Masquerade, I agree that Shady was unimpressive and Johnny hasn't done anything to change my opinion of that slot. In fact, presenting himself as a leader and assuming that he'll be nightkilled doesn't match up with his half-hearted semi-catchup and lack of activity since. A good majority of his catchup contained quotes of other people making cases on Karnos and piggybacking off of them. He doesn't give any of his own reasons and his catchup style of quoting people's posts and either approving or disapproving them doesn't take much thought or effort and is really easy to fake as scum.

If someone replaces into the game, it means they have at least some spare time to catch up and Johnny not doing catching up on a short twenty-page game in over three days shows me his heart is really not in it. He doesn't redeem Shady's posts and in fact, it made me more confident that the slot is scum.

Would like to understand what you are seeing here. I'm also interested in seeing everyone's comments on my read on Johnny.

which you haven't engaged with and later said that the Johnny wagon was "easy."

After MoI's post here,

Yeah I would ask you to read that post again with a critical eye. Notice there is lots of language that looks like he is assessing scum but really doesn't build to any conclusion.

As for the "I'm busy" angle - why should he not be engaged with the game? He replaced in of his own volition. He know the length of re-read (which by the way is small since I did it basically today FYI). Giving him a pass for not being engaged is a poor choice IMO.

you decided to re-read Johnny's catch up and vote him.

Can you explain the difference between MoI's posting and other people's posting (mine and Mechagoomba's for a start) that when he makes a point, you immediately agree and jump on it but when other made the same or similar points, you tend to double-down and stick to your position?

[JohnnyFarrar]

How often do you see scum claiming their actual roles? (This is a genuine question, I don't think I've ever seen it. IME they dress it up as something more protown)

[Masquerade]

I should probably reread on some stuff because rn I have a few issues with magna..

@Johnny, in a rolemadness I was a scum tracker, claimed tracker, shared results/confirmed townies and killed them later, and won (on my main) So yeah, we should definitely be critical of Karnos, but I think if we give him a night or 2 for results we can use that to figure out his alignment. That also gives him a day or 2 to show us he is town. Meanwhile we keep on scumhunting because p sure we're playing against more than 1 scum so even if Karnos is scum we'd still have to find more (his buddy/ies, opposing faction, 3rd party?)
I know flips will be able to help me strengthen some reads.

[qubixes]

@Johnny: This is my fourth game, so never? It does seem like a reasonable role to claim as scum though to me.

@Wingback: Mostly because it was another opinion in the same vein. At some point it is clear I'm not going to convince anyone to lynch karnos. Also, we played in the same game (though not at the same time, replace vs NK), and it seemed like he is a good/experienced player. I'm actually still not 100% convinced that we shouldn't lynch Karnos, but I'm obviously fighting windmills, and I might be wrong as well.

At that point I was still "stuck" on trying to get Karnos lynched. And yes johnny did feel a bit like the easy lynch, and I'm still worried it is, though a little less because of the reread. I think it also plays a role that I didn't like your style and your read on Karnos. Obviously that is irrational, but it is what it is. It also helped that he directly engaged me. And yes, rereading that, your post makes a lot of sense.

[MechaGoomba]

why are you voting on the same wagon with karnos?

Because if I was so convinced he's scum I'd refuse to vote a scumread because of it, I'd be voting him right now.

@MagnaofIllusion:
Suppose you knew that karnos was town; how would this affect your read on Johnny?
You've stated that you think the reason Johnny's wagon fell apart is that there were scum on it; are you willing to say who you think they are?

he's potentially outing town PRs with every result and or making the scum's search for PRs easier by stating which players are Vanilla.

He has no reason to out a "Not VT" result unless they claim VT, and even if he outs every VT result the scum will still have to choose between killing PRs and conftown.

[qubixes]

@Wingback: Also, for some reason I have a gut feeling that Johnny is town, which makes it more complicated also. I don't know. I hope the extra days will help me solidify my read.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I thought he got "vanilla" or "not vanilla", is there any reason to suspect a non-powered goon wouldn't also return "vanilla"

[Masquerade]

A vanilla cop gets vanilla results on goons, a neapolitan gets vt/not vt basically.

[JohnnyFarrar]

He has no reason to out a "Not VT" result unless they claim VT, and even if he outs every VT result the scum will still have to choose between killing PRs and conftown.

So with all this suspicion on him we're going to leave it up to him who to investigate AND whether or not he states the results?

[karnos]

For the record, I'm willing to go either way. If you think scum might kill my target just to waste the investigation, I could just investigate the scummiest players, and if they aren't killed that is a bit of a tell on it's own. I could at least verify that they are or are not VTs. Of course, if I am investigating by direction then it becomes obvious what the result is if I don't find a VT.

I do have a target in mind currently, if I don't get any other suggestions.

OTOH, I think scum would most likely just kill me outright, and I'd rather be jailed and miss using my power than get killed, so there is that.

[MechaGoomba]

Karnos should out all "VT" results, but no "Not VT" results unless they contradict claims. The town should not attempt to direct karnos.

Spoiler: Reasoning

Outing a "VT" result gives a confirmed vanilla townie, which is pretty dang great for giving scum headaches over who to kill.
However, outing a "Not VT" result is essentially useless for town and makes it possible for scum to find PRs easily.
Therefore, karnos should be outing "VT" results but not "Not VT" results.
If we tell karnos who to target, then if he doesn't out his result, it'll be obvious that it was "Not VT."
Therefore, we can't tell karnos who to target.

I will say that I consider a lot of this "but how do we deal with karnos" speculation a waste of time. We're close enough to deadline that getting a decent lynch together should be a priority.

UNVOTE: MathBlade
VOTE: JohnnyFarrar
You've made more posts than any other player that replaced in near the same time as you, and yet you have far less actual content than anyone else.
I could write it off as playstyle, but my meta analysis makes it look pretty clear: you do usually have this style of many short posts, but usually you're moving towards something constructive with them. I can't see that here.


PE, @karnos: Don't assume that scummy players can't be power roles. That said, I personally would recommend you target scummier players, because you can townfirm much more easily than scumfirming, and a townfirm is worth more if it's on a widely suspected player (though preferably someone active enough that they'll be able to make use of conftown status). As stated above, please don't say anything about who you're going to target; not only does it potentially out PRs, it opens the door to a whole new world of WIFOM.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Meh

[MathBlade]

Now for the post I quoted. It is the Wingback paragraph that really sold me you were town.

So you were sold that I was town in 601. Makes sense, that explains the shift between 561 and 722. However, that still doesn't explain anything related to the quoted part of 721. Did you not consider me to be a "champion of the karnos wagon"?


On reread, Dierfire is starting to look a bit off to me. One thing I've noticed is that he over-explains everything. Lots of his posts seem to be packed full of information in order to hide the fact that his actual reads are extremely uncontroversial.
Take 228 & 229: He townreads Persivul but doesn't actually engage with the arguments of the people suspecting him, puts a lot of effort into a townread on Chumba despite the fact that she wasn't being scumread or doing anything super important at the time, ambivalently doubtcasts on Sick with a side of preflip associative, and then uses a ton of IIOA to say essentially "I don't get Kappy's Sick reads progression".
Nothing risky, nothing that needs to be explained that much, and yet it's a full screenlength of text. I haven't seen any past game where he did this; has anyone played with him enough to say for certain?

Champions of the wagon means two things to me:
1) Who were the first voters and pushers (and how loud/quiet they continue that push throughout)
2) The loudest players on the lynch.

For example,
If Karnos would flip town then I would want to find the person who originally implied Karnos did something scummy. Then do the same for the first three voters. More than likely of this grouping there is at least one scum. I find it very rare that 4 players in a 13 player game would all be town in that scenario.

In case of the other option I would look at someone trying to promote the train as it was going. This case would be the one you would have fallen into except for where I town read you. Because I was in a hurry for that post for work reasons I just dropped the town reads rather than explaining they would be excluded from the scum options before.

I also take a look at VCA (similar to Titus) but I do it differently. Rather than who was on what spot it is usually telling to me to see major shifts in voting pattern or if someone enters and exits a wagon. I would look at the time around Dierfire really hard to see what reasoning they could have had. So this third case of Champion would be someone who made the lynch happen with strategic votes.

[MathBlade]

Three *
3) Strategic vote placers
God damn it I hate when my phone fucks up

[MathBlade]

So back from V/LA …

I’ll be starting my read in earnest today but have kept a soft eye on the thread via phone since replacing in.

First issue that needs to be clearly stated (and this is mostly for the benefit of Qui and Math) –

Rule Number 1 of Mafia – in a closed set-up you do NOT lynch a claimed investigation role that is un-CCed Day 1. You just don’t. If the claim is countered? Sure it is possible. We will get more information (from Karnos’s potential claimed results, future interactions and Nightkills) to sort him.

Specifically on Karnos’s claim – Neopolitan is actually stronger than some other Non-Alignment Cop roles as it provides 100% clearance with Vanilla Town results. It isn’t as strong for catching scum outside of incorrect VT claims but vetting VTs is huge from a standpoint of putting scum in a bad position as to whether to choose to kill suspected Power-roles or kill VTs who are 100% clear. Any time you handcuff the scum in some way you are benefitting Town.

Fuck your rules. Rule 1 lynch scum. Rule 2 don't mislynch. Everything else is suggestion.

This does not benefit town in any way for this specific PR. If Karnos is scum and targets a scummy player and then Karnos flips scum, we in essence gain nothing except to put any players that Karnos claims were VT under a microscope. However if Karnos flips town then we'd know that those people were townfirms. I would advise caution if we aren't going to do the smart thing and lynch them.

[MathBlade]

Karnos should out all "VT" results, but no "Not VT" results unless they contradict claims. The town should not attempt to direct karnos.

Spoiler: Reasoning

Outing a "VT" result gives a confirmed vanilla townie, which is pretty dang great for giving scum headaches over who to kill.
However, outing a "Not VT" result is essentially useless for town and makes it possible for scum to find PRs easily.
Therefore, karnos should be outing "VT" results but not "Not VT" results.
If we tell karnos who to target, then if he doesn't out his result, it'll be obvious that it was "Not VT."
Therefore, we can't tell karnos who to target.

I will say that I consider a lot of this "but how do we deal with karnos" speculation a waste of time. We're close enough to deadline that getting a decent lynch together should be a priority.

UNVOTE: MathBlade
VOTE: JohnnyFarrar
You've made more posts than any other player that replaced in near the same time as you, and yet you have far less actual content than anyone else.
I could write it off as playstyle, but my meta analysis makes it look pretty clear: you do usually have this style of many short posts, but usually you're moving towards something constructive with them. I can't see that here.


PE, @karnos: Don't assume that scummy players can't be power roles. That said, I personally would recommend you target scummier players, because you can townfirm much more easily than scumfirming, and a townfirm is worth more if it's on a widely suspected player (though preferably someone active enough that they'll be able to make use of conftown status). As stated above, please don't say anything about who you're going to target; not only does it potentially out PRs, it opens the door to a whole new world of WIFOM.

He has no reason to out a "Not VT" result unless they claim VT, and even if he outs every VT result the scum will still have to choose between killing PRs and conftown.

So with all this suspicion on him we're going to leave it up to him who to investigate AND whether or not he states the results?

I like this post here. I think my gut read on Johnny being town is right. I am going to start looking at some of the people who started this wagon and moved it off of Karnos. Probably scum there.