Mini 1800 - Game Over

[Wingback]

He did say it was "obvious" why he was leaving "someone" out. I'm assuming he is not thinking here that he is "obviously" reaction testing. So, I guess it's because he already gave his reasons?

Yeah, he said that when making the readslist. I think he knew people would ask about why he left out Persivul and he didn't want to explain at that point and "ruin" the test. But he left a vague enough hint to avoid being pressed on it.

[karnos]

/sigh

Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:38 am This is my first post in the 640 game thread after the scum team reveal.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7990492

Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:52 am
247 This was my vote on Persivul in this game, roughly an hour later. Why the hour? Honestly I can't remember, it's been almost a week. I may have been posting or reading in another ongoing game, or I might have actually had to do something for work that morning.

Go ahead, call it a coincidence if you want.

[qubixes]

He did say it was "obvious" why he was leaving "someone" out. I'm assuming he is not thinking here that he is "obviously" reaction testing. So, I guess it's because he already gave his reasons?

Yeah, he said that when making the readslist. I think he knew people would ask about why he left out Persivul and he didn't want to explain at that point and "ruin" the test. But he left a vague enough hint to avoid being pressed on it.

Wouldn't he want that as either town or scum though? I mean "reaction testing" is not a town-only thing.

@Karnos: Not sure what you're trying to argue there. No one is arguing that timing?

[Wingback]

The key thing here is:

Karnos admits to faking a read.

He's just saying he did it for town purposes, as a reaction test. But he is still claiming it was fake. He just claims the motivation was town, not scum.
So I suppose the question has to be: If he was reaction testing, why did he leave out Persivul in his readslist?
Wouldn't any answer to that question be just as good an answer if he was scum?

He did say it was "obvious" why he was leaving "someone" out. I'm assuming he is not thinking here that he is "obviously" reaction testing.

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense in the unlikely hypothetical where karnos is town either.

Three scenarios here:

1) He is town and did a reaction test. (He voted Persivul to "put pressure" on him despite townreading him. He excluded Persivul from his readslist because it was ruin the test if he revealed that he was townreading Persivul. He left a vague hint about omitting someone to fend off questions about it.)

2) He is scum and pretended to do a reaction test. (He voted Persivul and left him out of a readslist with a vague hint so that after some time passes, he could pretend to make this grand reveal that he was in fact townreading Persivul and this was an elaborate test in order to read Persivul.) I explained why this is unlikely based on Karnos's experience and skill level.

3) He is scum and faked the read entirely. (He opportunistically jumped onto the Persivul wagon hoping the mislynch Persivul. He omitted Persivul from his readslist with a vague hint. Why? Why not write up some fake reasons for scumreading Persivul? Karnos certainly doesn't seem like the type who is incapable of writing large volumes of text. Surely, he could have made something up.

Is this an accurate summary of the possibilities? If you are pushing that the third option happened, then why did he omit the Persivul read rather than make something up? I don't see the scum benefit here. But I do see why he as town would try to do a "reaction test." Especially because Persivul was scum in a recent game and Karnos had wrongly townread him in that game so is understandably a bit wary on Persivul.

Pedit: Qubixes, are you arguing that #2 is what happened?

[Masquerade]

Hi

UNVOTE:

Gonna start the catch-up read now.

[qubixes]

@Masquerade Hi

@Wingback:

I don't know exactly what happened. In a vacuum where I don't scum read Karnos #1 also makes sense. I personally don't think the omission is particularly alignment indicative. I mean if he was really reaction testing as town he could also not omit persivul? Which to me makes more sense as town as well.

As scum these kinds of reaction tests can be quite useful, because you can decide afterwards whether you like or not like the reaction depending on how the wagon forms. Or even decide whether it actually was a reaction test or not. In that sense it is a very flexible tool as scum; he could be planning #2 or #3 at the same time and decide later. Of course it doesn't work the other way around that a reaction test immediately makes him scum.

I'm not sure I agree with the competence argument. I think if he can do it as town, he should be able to do it as scum.

[MechaGoomba]

If you are pushing that the third option happened, then why did he omit the Persivul read rather than make something up?

If he was town, why would he have omitted the Persivul read rather than make something up?
Let me guess: because making something up would be lying to the town. Oh wait, he was doing that already!

Unless I'm seriously misinterpreting, your argument is that karnos is town because, if he were scum, he'd have been

even more deceptive

when he was

lying to the town about his reads

, so, because

he lied about his reads in a less deceptive way

, he must be town.
Suffice it to say I don't remotely see your point.

[Wingback]

@qubixes - It's not so much that he omitted Persivul but that when I look back at his train of thought - voting Persivul at the time he did, omitting Persivul from his list, and finally revealing that this was all a test - I had a lightbulb moment where everything fell into place. That made me feel that there was genuine underlying scumhunting intent and a consistent chain of thought that I hadn't felt before.

Your case is based largely on him being careful, not having any strong reads and being self-conscious. Those are all good points but some people are naturally very self-conscious and careful, and lack confidence in their reads. I'm thinking Karnos fits that profile. I will read through the game where he was scum to see what level of play he's capable of. If there's anything specific you want me to look at, let me know.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Dang people just don't wanna play this game huh?

[Wingback]

@ MechaGoomba - You are seriously misinterpreting.

If he was town, he voted Persivul to see Persivul's reaction to pressure. He apparently thought it was a better idea to not say anything about Persivul:

Could I make up some absolute BS, and try to use that to attack him a little more? Maybe, if I tried, but I didn't want to get myself miss-lynched bad enough for that. In retrospect the whole thing was a poor play. Maybe I should have gone all in on the attack, but I felt my slot was already viewed as scummy by several players and I couldn't risk a full gambit like that.

If he were scum that simply wanted to mislynch Persivul, he could have come up with something to push him.

I'm not saying he's town because he lied in a "less deceptive way." I think he's town because I believe that his reaction test was genuine. I believe this because his actions after voting Persivul all line up and make sense from town doing a reaction test.

[qubixes]

@Wingback: I read through some of his town games, and it felt very different to me than the style he played up to my big case. And the switch in style also makes me confident that the careful style is not his natural style. I think that if he was really reaction testing, he'd be more aggressive about it as town. (I think reaction testing town reads is kind of silly/bad idea, but I could see some thinking it's a good idea.)

I think you might want to have a short look at one of his town games. To me it felt like night and day to his play here.

@JohnnyFarrar: Do

you

want to play? Read up yet?

[MechaGoomba]

If he were scum that simply wanted to mislynch Persivul, he could have come up with something to push him.

If he were town that wanted to pressure Persivul, he could have come up with something to push him. As a matter of fact, he'd want to come up with a push more as town than as scum.

You need a push to pressure properly. A naked vote that's never referenced again isn't pressure.
If you just want a mislynch, on the other hand, you don't need to push; it doesn't really matter who gets lynched as long as they aren't mafia.

[JohnnyFarrar]

@JohnnyFarrar: Do you want to play? Read up yet?

You'd know. I'm a busy guy.

[Masquerade]

Just reached page 17 and need a break. Will post thoughts when I'm done.

I'll respond to questions but please make them as concrete as possible (don't ask me what my reads are, narrow it down a bit)

[Kappy]

So many replacements!

[Persivul]

Checking in...waiting for replacements to catch up.

[karnos]

I don't really have anything to add right now. I can reiterate- I will claim if we get to L-1 with intent to hammer, but I'd rather not have to claim for obvious reasons.

[Masquerade]

Anyway, for bloodthirsty players like Mecha and qubixes, why not use this time to be productive? If I am scum, who are my scum partners?

I'm really curious to see what you think, seeing what you think prior to my flip is much more valuable from a town perspective.

If I'm going down, I'd like to take at least one scum with me.

I feel like this, and especially the bolded part, is a townpost. I had Karnos as a scumread all the way until the page this post showed up and I just want to say that if we're all going to be reaction testing and put out fake reads it's going to be hard to distinguish the townreads from the scumreads so please stop it. Karnos doesn't strike me as the kind of person to fake this as scum so while I still dislike the reaction test thingy, his explanation makes sense to me and he can be town. So can Wingback, but I already had good feels of sickofit at some point. Kind of popular reads I guess, I also like Persivul for town, but carefully.

Now that Karnos is a townread I need to reread some iso's, don't have strong scumreads. I'm not impressed with Dierfire at all so far, Shady doesn't impress me either but I did like Johnny's catch-up. Would like to see more from him. Species has next to no content at all but it's a small iso and not enough to actually call him scum for it but I'm very much looking forward to his replacement. Snork has even less posts but I get more townvibes from his posts compared to Species.

I don't like Mecha for focussing on Wingback while pushing Karnos. For one, if Karnos was scum I would expect him to either just fake changing his read from scum to town or not have such a detailed explanation for his reaction test at least. Also, Karnos has adressed Mecha and Mecha ignored that to keep pushing that Karnos faked a read. Why would any scum admit to faking a read? Even if it might be fitting to how you've been playing, you still do not want to put that seed into other people's brains.
I feel that Karnos saying he faked his read is a bit awkward, but I think what he means (and what showed from what he was doing) is he was actually townreading Pers but afraid/paranoid about being wrong. This happens, people get alts because of it. Anyway, he 'faked' scumreading Pers to get a more definitive reaction out of him hoping to ensure his read.

Mecha, what's your read on Wingback again?

Johnny, have any of your reads changed since your catch-up post?

[qubixes]

Ugh, not really feeling like defending my case/responding to other peoples town reads on Karnos anymore.

I mean seriously, how hard can it be to at least get him to L-1?

[MechaGoomba]

Mecha, what's your read on Wingback again?

My read on Wingback is currently medium-strength town, but it may change dependent on karnos's flip.

[Masquerade]

@Qubixes: Right now I care more what you think of my townread on Karnos than what you think of Karnos. Why do you dislike the townreads on Karnos?

@Mecha: How and when did you get to that townread? And elaborate more please on that flip-thing.

[qubixes]

@Masquerade: Because it's picking one thing and claiming that makes him town, disregarding all the other stuff. I'm not convinced the two things that have been mentioned are very much alignment indicative at all.

I feel there is a good case on him. There are no good alternatives at the moment. But for some reason it goes so slowly. To be fair, it's partly because of all the inactives/replacements I guess. And I'm slightly bored.

[MechaGoomba]

@Mecha: How and when did you get to that townread? And elaborate more please on that flip-thing.

My townread on Wingback is based on the fact that he's replacing Sick, and I trust Persivul's assessment of Sick given no strong evidence to the contrary.
The flip thing is basically that if karnos flips scum I'll be extremely displeased with the people that jumped in to say "But karnos's ridiculous gambit means he could potentially be town! Let's ignore all the scummy stuff he ever did in favor of that slim possibility!", and Wingback is decidedly one of those people.


Also, I feel like I should remind people: the gambit karnos is claiming to have pulled is not remotely a reaction test. Look at how I was dealing with Chumba if you want an example of a proper reaction test.
Differences: I applied actual pressure, I finished the assessment quickly rather than letting it drag on, I explained what I was doing as soon as I finished testing, I

didn't lie

(I was actually scumreading Chumba at the time, just changed my read after the reaction), and I was doing it during the early stages of the game where it would actually be useful (because once the early stages are over, discussion is much better at getting information than reaction testing).

[JohnnyFarrar]

Johnny, have any of your reads changed since your catch-up post?

Nah. Also haven't caught up more

[karnos]

The key thing here is:

Karnos admits to faking a read.

He's just saying he did it for town purposes, as a reaction test. But he is still claiming it was fake. He just claims the motivation was town, not scum.
So I suppose the question has to be: If he was reaction testing, why did he leave out Persivul in his readslist?
Wouldn't any answer to that question be just as good an answer if he was scum?

Mecha, there is a reason I am scum reading you. It's posts like the above.

Please tell me, what post of mine has me faking a read?

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town, in the hopes that maybe some pressure on him would make him slip up if he was scum. That is what I did.

I didn't fake a read, I actually excluded him from my list of reads. You seem to be aware of this, so why would you say I admitted to faking a read?