Mini 1800 - Game Over

[MechaGoomba]

You apparently gave up in 475, resigned yourself to being lynched. Why not explain yourself then? Why wait until now, if you had this explanation ready all the time and just kept it secret for *reasons*?

If the only reason you were voting Persivul was to pressure him enough that you could read him, why not unvote after the big Persivul vs. Saru argument? You never followed up your vote. You never pushed Persivul. What could your one unsupported vote give in terms of pressure that a giant pagelong argument couldn't?

When you voted Persivul, you made the decision to focus on pressuring him over pushing your scumreads. When you chose not to vote me, even after you put me as a top scumread, you reaffirmed that. You scumread a lot of things I said between 247 and 399, and none of them convinced you to vote me.
So then, what reason could you have to go back on that decision to pressure Persivul and vote me? I didn't suddenly become hyperscummy right before 399. The only good reason would be you realized you were no longer able to pressure Persivul, right?
Then, if you saw you weren't pressuring him with a vote on him, why would you still believe you'd be able to pressure him even after unvoting? Your rationale for not explaining in 410 doesn't hold water.


It seems really clear that this is just mafia flailing in a last-ditch attempt not to get lynched. If I'm wrong, I apologize, but by this point I seriously doubt it.

[qubixes]

Personally, I don't really see the point of waiting out the deadline here. I doubt scum are going to reveal themselves regardless of Karnos' alignment. Anyone agree/disagree?

[Saru]

I don't really disagree but I do think we should wait until a replacement for Snork is found and see what they have to say about all this. I'd feel comfortable going in to the flip with everyone's thoughts put out in regards to the lynch.

[qubixes]

Yeah, I guess. I mean, it's hard to see any surprises happening, but it might also give them a decent way into the game. I guess species might also be replaced at this point, since he hasn't posted since Sunday, which was only a prod dodge?

Still, I think it would also be fine for them to come in at the start from Day 2. Then at least something is happening, now it just feels a bit drawn out. (I'm a bit bored.)

[karnos]

You apparently gave up in 475, resigned yourself to being lynched. Why not explain yourself then? Why wait until now, if you had this explanation ready all the time and just kept it secret for *reasons*?

You tell me: what is the scum motivation in waiting?

If I do get lynched, I'll have a chance in twilight to share anything else that needs to be shared.

If the only reason you were voting Persivul was to pressure him enough that you could read him, why not unvote after the big Persivul vs. Saru argument? You never followed up your vote. You never pushed Persivul. What could your one unsupported vote give in terms of pressure that a giant pagelong argument couldn't?

I don't *have* an argument. Persivul was playing as town should, IMO. 295 was my lame attempt to push him a little. Could I make up some absolute BS, and try to use that to attack him a little more? Maybe, if I tried, but I didn't want to get myself miss-lynched bad enough for that. In retrospect the whole thing was a poor play. Maybe I should have gone all in on the attack, but I felt my slot was already viewed as scummy by several players and I couldn't risk a full gambit like that.

When you voted Persivul, you made the decision to focus on pressuring him over pushing your scumreads. When you chose not to vote me, even after you put me as a top scumread, you reaffirmed that. You scumread a lot of things I said between 247 and 399, and none of them convinced you to vote me.
So then, what reason could you have to go back on that decision to pressure Persivul and vote me? I didn't suddenly become hyperscummy right before 399. The only good reason would be you realized you were no longer able to pressure Persivul, right?

Reads evolve, and sometimes not pushing a suspected scum can lead to more valuable information than you would ever get by pushing it. I feared that I wouldn't be able to read persivul as scum unless he was pushed, but that doesn't apply to all players. Any scum reads are rather flimsy at this point, and giving you more rope to hang yourself seemed like a better plan at the time. I don't like to do this, but since everyone wants to use meta against me I guess it's fair to bring up: in my previous games, I hated posting read lists. I know my reads are flimsy, and posting them in the thread for all to read just gives a lot of information away that I really don't want scum to have.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7866218

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7780459

Those were my first two games, both as town BTW. I've gotten a lot of pushback from this line of thinking, I get the impression that I am viewed as scum because I don't share reads, so I decided to go the other route this game and shared a nearly full read list (minus persivul for obvious reasons- if I revealed that I read him as town, my vote on him would seem incongruous and I wouldn't be applying any pressure). Suffice to say, I am now wishing I just stuck with my previous strategy of keeping my reads close except when I was willing to vote, as sharing my reads as I have somehow just made me look worse and gave some free information away to scum.

Anyway, long story short: I won't always vote a scummy player immediately, or even tell them I see them as scummy, because to me that is essentially saying "hey, if you want to fool me into thinking you are town, quit doing X Y and Z". Just plain bad strategy IMO.

Then, if you saw you weren't pressuring him with a vote on him, why would you still believe you'd be able to pressure him even after unvoting? Your rationale for not explaining in 410 doesn't hold water.

It's psychological. If I vote you and say I think you are scum, and later switch to another person saying something like "well I am even more sure they are scum", it doesn't fully take you off the hook- you might wonder if I will go back to voting you, or if I will vote you after the other person is lynched, etc. It might release some pressure having the vote moved off, but you still know there is a player who wants to lynch you, even if he isn't voting you currently.

And TBH, I really think the above would be completely obvious, but you don't see it because you are blindly pushing your case on me.

[karnos]

Personally, I don't really see the point of waiting out the deadline here. I doubt scum are going to reveal themselves regardless of Karnos' alignment. Anyone agree/disagree?

Really? I guess my opinion will be disregarded since I am the one under the microscope here, but that type of reasoning is always scummy. You have time, use it.

[qubixes]

Personally, I don't really see the point of waiting out the deadline here. I doubt scum are going to reveal themselves regardless of Karnos' alignment. Anyone agree/disagree?

Really? I guess my opinion will be disregarded since I am the one under the microscope here, but that type of reasoning is always scummy. You have time, use it.

Yes, really. I don't feel like the time before the flip is going to be of much use. For example this back and forth between you and Mecha is imo just filling up the thread and not actually getting anything done. I don't feel like anyone else is really getting anywhere either (me included). So unless someone else wants to push in a different direction, I think we're just wasting time. Saru is right that if the replacements would want something different, it might be useful to see what happens. Now, not so much.

If you are town, blindly pushing Mecha isn't going to help. I think you should be lynched Today pretty much regardless of what happens from now on. But if you're town and you want to help us after your flip, I think you should try and see if you can find any other pointers in this game, because I think your case on mecha looks pretty bad, i.e. I wouldn't follow it even should you flip town.

[MechaGoomba]

You apparently gave up in 475, resigned yourself to being lynched. Why not explain yourself then? Why wait until now, if you had this explanation ready all the time and just kept it secret for *reasons*?

You tell me: what is the scum motivation in waiting?

If I do get lynched, I'll have a chance in twilight to share anything else that needs to be shared.

If the only reason you were voting Persivul was to pressure him enough that you could read him, why not unvote after the big Persivul vs. Saru argument? You never followed up your vote. You never pushed Persivul. What could your one unsupported vote give in terms of pressure that a giant pagelong argument couldn't?

I don't *have* an argument. Persivul was playing as town should, IMO. 295 was my lame attempt to push him a little. Could I make up some absolute BS, and try to use that to attack him a little more? Maybe, if I tried, but I didn't want to get myself miss-lynched bad enough for that. In retrospect the whole thing was a poor play. Maybe I should have gone all in on the attack, but I felt my slot was already viewed as scummy by several players and I couldn't risk a full gambit like that.

When you voted Persivul, you made the decision to focus on pressuring him over pushing your scumreads. When you chose not to vote me, even after you put me as a top scumread, you reaffirmed that. You scumread a lot of things I said between 247 and 399, and none of them convinced you to vote me.
So then, what reason could you have to go back on that decision to pressure Persivul and vote me? I didn't suddenly become hyperscummy right before 399. The only good reason would be you realized you were no longer able to pressure Persivul, right?

Reads evolve, and sometimes not pushing a suspected scum can lead to more valuable information than you would ever get by pushing it. I feared that I wouldn't be able to read persivul as scum unless he was pushed, but that doesn't apply to all players. Any scum reads are rather flimsy at this point, and giving you more rope to hang yourself seemed like a better plan at the time. I don't like to do this, but since everyone wants to use meta against me I guess it's fair to bring up: in my previous games, I hated posting read lists. I know my reads are flimsy, and posting them in the thread for all to read just gives a lot of information away that I really don't want scum to have.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p7866218

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7780459

Those were my first two games, both as town BTW. I've gotten a lot of pushback from this line of thinking, I get the impression that I am viewed as scum because I don't share reads, so I decided to go the other route this game and shared a nearly full read list (minus persivul for obvious reasons- if I revealed that I read him as town, my vote on him would seem incongruous and I wouldn't be applying any pressure). Suffice to say, I am now wishing I just stuck with my previous strategy of keeping my reads close except when I was willing to vote, as sharing my reads as I have somehow just made me look worse and gave some free information away to scum.

Anyway, long story short: I won't always vote a scummy player immediately, or even tell them I see them as scummy, because to me that is essentially saying "hey, if you want to fool me into thinking you are town, quit doing X Y and Z". Just plain bad strategy IMO.

Then, if you saw you weren't pressuring him with a vote on him, why would you still believe you'd be able to pressure him even after unvoting? Your rationale for not explaining in 410 doesn't hold water.

It's psychological. If I vote you and say I think you are scum, and later switch to another person saying something like "well I am even more sure they are scum", it doesn't fully take you off the hook- you might wonder if I will go back to voting you, or if I will vote you after the other person is lynched, etc. It might release some pressure having the vote moved off, but you still know there is a player who wants to lynch you, even if he isn't voting you currently.

And TBH, I really think the above would be completely obvious, but you don't see it because you are blindly pushing your case on me.

At this point there's pretty much nothing karnos could say or do that would make him look more town.
Let's not waste time if we don't have to: if Karnos claims, we want to have the time to deal with it properly.

[MechaGoomba]

OH GOD WHY DOES THE QUICK REPLY BOX DO THAT

No one knows. Glad it's not just me though.

[karnos]

Persivul in 435 and qubixes in 459 accurately capture where I was going in 393: karnos pushes back against MechaGoomba in a way that feels insincere (more like trying to "return fire" than actually trying to read MechaGoomba). I need a VC and time to finally look at those previously mentioned games of karnos, but this is likely to be my vote shortly.

You and others making the same 'observation': I voted MechaGoomba first. If it's scummy to push back with a vote, then you should be reading him as scum, not me.

MechaGoomba: The chance of me claiming before L-1 and intent to hammer is 0%. If someone decides to rush and quick-hammer before claiming, the loss is on them, not me.

[karnos]

Anyway, for bloodthirsty players like Mecha and qubixes, why not use this time to be productive? If I am scum, who are my scum partners?

I'm really curious to see what you think, seeing what you think prior to my flip is much more valuable from a town perspective. If I'm going down, I'd like to take at least one scum with me.

[qubixes]

Anyway, for bloodthirsty players like Mecha and qubixes, why not use this time to be productive? If I am scum, who are my scum partners?

I'm really curious to see what you think, seeing what you think prior to my flip is much more valuable from a town perspective. If I'm going down, I'd like to take at least one scum with me.

I'm not very sure yet. Connections wise with you, I think there are not a lot of people that I can just write off just given that you are scum. Also, the amount of inactives/replacements is making this quite hard at the moment.

I'm probably going to be around tomorrow to figure it out though. What about you? You think I'm ever scum with Mecha here?

[MechaGoomba]

MechaGoomba: The chance of me claiming before L-1 and intent to hammer is 0%. If someone decides to rush and quick-hammer before claiming, the loss is on them, not me.

What I meant was "we want to reach L-1 with intent early enough that if/when you claim we have the opportunity to actually check for CCs, find another good lynch, etc. rather than rushing to find a compromise and avoid no lynch."


If you flip scum I'd have to take a serious look at Kappy. I'm getting conflicting reads on your interactions, and a lot of it really bothers me, especially since you voted Kappy for a good chunk of the game but basically did nothing with it. He was also doing his best to ignore you until the wagon on you got really big and then he used flimsy reasoning to hop on.

[karnos]

since you voted Kappy for a good chunk of the game but basically did nothing with it. He was also doing his best to ignore you until the wagon on you got really big and then he used flimsy reasoning to hop on.

Dude, I was completely transparent on that, it should be super obvious even for someone tunneling me like you are.

171 I voted kappy, making it clear why with this:

"We are past the RVS silliness, what are your serious reads now? Based on your read list, you rate sickofit and chumba as scummier, yet you are still voting persivul, any reason why?"

I was already reading persivul as town at that point, and was trying to understand why kappy of all people was voting him, especially given his own readslist.

239 I unvoted kappy,

"thanks for clarifying, that removes the main reason I had for voting you"

Based on 235 and 236 , where kappy changed vote targets.

[GreyICE]

Mizzy and Snork are being replaced

[qubixes]

@mod: what happens to species, is he coming back?

I hope so. If not, I'll seek another kind volunteer for replacement, but given the current situation I'd rather give him a chance.

[Wingback]

I'm second-guessing my read on Karnos. I think it's possible he's town. I need to check something and I'll elaborate in my next post. I do want to see the replacements and species post though. I'm not ready to end the day.

[Wingback]

[quote="In post 504, karnos"]I decided to go the other route this game and shared a nearly full read list (minus persivul for obvious reasons- if I revealed that I read him as town, my vote on him would seem incongruous and I wouldn't be applying any pressure).

I find it hard to believe that Karnos is scum that decided to fake a "reaction test" on Persivul by voting him and then made sure that all his actions from then on (not including Persivul in his reads list) matched up with that elaborate ploy, and then said nothing about it until it was brought up just now.

In other words, if he's scum, he didn't just hop onto the wagon opportunistically. He was intending a fake a reaction test all along from the beginning. The reason I think that's unlikely is that firstly, Karnos doesn't come across to me as the skilled and sophisticated player who would pull it off, and secondly, scum like showing off their scumhunting by revealing the results of their test but Karnos hasn't said anything about this until now. But when you go back and look at his vote on Persivul and then the readslist, and his explanation now, it's all quite consistent.

[Wingback]

FIXED TAGS

I decided to go the other route this game and shared a nearly full read list (minus persivul for obvious reasons- if I revealed that I read him as town, my vote on him would seem incongruous and I wouldn't be applying any pressure).

I find it hard to believe that Karnos is scum that decided to fake a "reaction test" on Persivul by voting him and then made sure that all his actions from then on (not including Persivul in his reads list) matched up with that elaborate ploy, and then said nothing about it until it was brought up just now.

In other words, if he's scum, he didn't just hop onto the wagon opportunistically. He was intending a fake a reaction test all along from the beginning. The reason I think that's unlikely is that firstly, Karnos doesn't come across to me as the skilled and sophisticated player who would pull it off, and secondly, scum like showing off their scumhunting by revealing the results of their test but Karnos hasn't said anything about this until now. But when you go back and look at his vote on Persivul and then the readslist, and his explanation now, it's all quite consistent.

[Wingback]

Also, Dierfire, I see your points on Mizzytastic. I think the way he pushed Karnos had a lot of original reasoning and he stuck his neck out considerably to make the push which I found town. I'm not very confident in my townread there though so I'll see what the replacement has to say and then factor it in.

[GreyICE]

Masquerade replaces Mizzytastic. Thank you Masquerade!

[MechaGoomba]

In other words, if he's scum, he didn't just hop onto the wagon opportunistically. He was intending a fake a reaction test all along from the beginning.

I'm entirely unsure why you think this?
Yes, many of his actions would make sense if he was reaction testing. This is because, if he was reaction testing, he never actually scumread Persy. Therefore, it's understandable that he wasn't pushing his read, jumped off the wagon when he got a chance, etc., because he wasn't scumreading Persy in the first place.
The problem is, if he's scum, then there's also the large possiblity that he never scumread Persy because he knew Persy was town. Two different reasons for having a fake read are indistinguishable from the outside.
I don't believe there's any possibility he's scum who is reaction testing; I think he's scum who faked a read, got called out, and made an outrageous lie to hide it.

[Wingback]

If he faked a read, why did he leave out Persivul in his readslist? That would be a very odd co-incidence, wouldn't it?

[qubixes]

He did say it was "obvious" why he was leaving "someone" out. I'm assuming he is not thinking here that he is "obviously" reaction testing. So, I guess it's because he already gave his reasons?

[MechaGoomba]

The key thing here is:

Karnos admits to faking a read.

He's just saying he did it for town purposes, as a reaction test. But he is still claiming it was fake. He just claims the motivation was town, not scum.
So I suppose the question has to be: If he was reaction testing, why did he leave out Persivul in his readslist?
Wouldn't any answer to that question be just as good an answer if he was scum?

He did say it was "obvious" why he was leaving "someone" out. I'm assuming he is not thinking here that he is "obviously" reaction testing.

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense in the unlikely hypothetical where karnos is town either.