New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[copper223]

VOTE: Ircher

[copper223]

Haven't seen you in forever.....

Tis true but now I'm playing a few, how is it going?

[copper223]

@Ircher
Nice, I can already tell you are more sure of yourself compared to when we played the first time.

@dr
Increased likelyhood of getting a read compared to another random, but since Ircher's been playing a lot that's not necessarily true anymore.

[copper223]

Lol.

[copper223]

Laugh all you want, if he flips scum you're next.

Kill: Ircher

If you caught Ircher scum on page 1 I'll be happy to go next.

[copper223]

Have you ever played with Shotty before?

Nope, never. How likely do you think he is consciously faking his own meta?

[copper223]

You are pretty crappy then.

[copper223]

@Titus

You realize how Copper has displayed actual inconsistencies and people are pushing awkard things you are saying because they don't like math. Get real.

my connection timed out at the airport (we only get 2hrs to play around here in europe apparently) so you are getting the reaction delayed but:

a) I do not RVS based on scum/town leans, do you?

b) I do not usually move my vote until RVS ends anyway although that's not relevant here.

Your inconsistency is created by the way you frame the context, incorrectly or maliciously.

@Egg
He seemed happy to see me and counter attacked when reaction tested by shotty, in the newbie he was hesitant about his reads and just let me lead them around, but again since I haven't play with him for a while this is not so relevant.

I did get a town lean on Ircher based on 35 though.

I don't know if I should praise your snap read or get paranoid about it, for now you can be my friend together with TBG.

@Ircher
Are you reaction testing me?

@Dr
This won't help me but I've never been lynched as scum (or town, I did get vig shot by acryon once though), other than in the game that should have won mafia team award last year where I did it on purpose as an art piece (lynch the cop, lynch the first doctor, counter claim the second doctor and last PR while my teammates buss me and get him lynch, then self hammer, then win the game the next day when my teammates where "confirmed town").

[copper223]

He did take a hard stance on me though, but I like your point.

[copper223]

@Copper - So you think we're in RVS is an excuse to keep a vote on a town read/lean?

In general I think RVS is an opportunity to try and get a read on someone that can be easily read, on someone you know well, or on someone that you want to priority sort, there are other ways to use it but the above is my go-to.

Let's not start with this defense bullshit please (again guilty of badly framing the context Titus), I am explaining my thought process to you because I don't really know where you are coming from.

[copper223]

VOTE: Nosferatu

[copper223]

Why are you asking rhetorical questions? RVS ended once you said you had a case on me.

I voted Nosferatu cause correcting Ircher on statistics is something that a townie looking for scum is less likely to do.

[copper223]

VOTE: Cooper
RVS is fair and just, because we will laugh hard if you flip scum.

My my, AtE for the rest of town to quick lynch me and possibly an attempt to tilt me in the same sentence? How evil.

If you are scum you will also laugh hard no? I can see why that would be funny.

@PM
TGB is town (or very good at faking it which can't really be figured out on d1).

[copper223]

@TGB
I can be persuaded on Ircher, but I do find that "0.5% chance of shotty being town" the kind of statement that the blissfully uninformed are more likely to come up with.

[copper223]

The serious problem would be you being town and using these kind of arguments, you being scum I'd find pretty awesome.

[copper223]

VOTE: Seth

[copper223]

My friend, assuming you are town we will get along perfectly if you stop using emotions to attempt to manipulate players and start justifying your play based on what you honestly think.

[copper223]

Excellent, TBG I'd like your support in this endeavor.

@Seth
Alternatively you can tell me which one, if any, of {Robert, I am Innocent, Magma} is also scum.

[copper223]

@Seth
I see, no I meant that as mafia you would be happy to see

my flip

so it would be doubly funny if town bought your argument that copper should be lynched for being an arrogant prick, cause you get one up over me

and

over town.

This said your statement still doesn't make sense because you can't be an SK and a mafia goon at the same time.

[copper223]

Scum team: Titus, Ircher, Copper

3rd party: Zakk

[copper223]

Well given that half the wagon on Ircher was driven by calling him scum for badly mangling statistics I can’t see this as valid at all. Why not anyone else. Brawl, who you are floating as Town, is just as guilty as Nos in my mind.

Nos started the game focusing on that aspect, which is a key difference.

Put yourself in the shoes of scumhunter extraordinare Nostradamus who has a few pages to sift through and look for alignments, does pursuing Ircher's understanding of statistics seem like a priority to you? On the other hand scum extraordinaire Nostradamus likely wants to look for crumbs, determine which players may be dangerous for him and look to be active while doing nothing, especially if he can join a ready made wagon from Titus, he also appears to be debating the Ircher issues without really giving a read about it.

I choose the names out of the list at random cause I wanted to increase the pressure on Seth .

@ETL
Real talk lady, what makes you think Seth is newb-town.

@Seth
If you are hard claiming SK we can use you as a vig and give you brownie points when we win, how about it?

[copper223]

@Magma
My fellow man, tis a figure of speech, though I'm sure Nostradamus truly is a beast scum hunter when he gets a town PM.

You are again comparing posts that are superficially similar in the wording but appear to come from completely different mindsets, 102 and 104 are players (BGT and KTS) saying idgaf about statistics, back to the real game please, Nosferatu took the time to examine what Ircher wrote and comment on his

ability

to do so correctly, now there are reasons why town Nos would do so as well but it is less likely compared to scum Nos doing the same thing hence the vote on him in particular.

[copper223]

@ETL
What outrageous language!

I am partially at fault here cause that was meant to be addressed to lowell's 202.

[copper223]

Copper, what is your read on projectmatt? Why don't you think the more serious Ircher votes (drmy and myself mostly) ended RVS as opposed to Titus' vote on you? Why do you think scum are less likely than town to come up with the ".5%" comment? I feel like a lot of scum come off more confident in their reads because the whole point is to present them in a persuasive manner rather than actually be right. I was kind of thinking that when I asked you why Ircher seemed more confident to you. I'm not sure if Ircher would be confident scum or not though so I'm not sure if it's a strong point or a null one. I definitely don't see it as a town tell though so I'm curious to hear your side

I am leaning town on PM.

Shotty's read + fake vig. shot and the wagon that formed around it I found more of an extension of RVS, plus (and this is my bad and I'm actively trying to fix it) I find it hard to take Shotty seriously, Titus announced she was done with RVS which made it clear to all that phase of the game was over which makes it the best closing point for me.

What's persuasive about saying you have a 99.5% scumread on someone at the start of d1? That's optimistic even with a guilty check in an open setup, so realistically and in an unbiased state (which is mostly where you are at as scum) you are not going to say something so dumb, if you are you are doing so with a purpose in mind and this is where you went with your interpretation if I'm reading correctly between the lines, as town however bias can do that to you and I've seen it happen often and that was my initial reaction.

I have to say though I am coming around on scumreading Ircher as well, I did not appreciate his turn around vote on me and the way he decided Seth had to be claiming SK (and did not just screw up as scum) may be a tell that he knows Seth is not part of the scumteam.

[copper223]

@Egg
I sheep votes when you give me a case I like, how you express yourself is completely irrelevant so long as I can understand you and I'm not too prejudiced about what you are saying for whatever reason.

This might be cultural as well cause I've had the same sort of discussion with business friends in the US.

[copper223]

@Egg
Saying you are 99.5% sure there is not showing confidence, it's either dumb overconfidence or scum theater, I see what you are getting at with Ircher possibly being scum pretending to do so because it looks good to be confident (this does not apply to how I read the game so my gut reaction was: this is likely dumb town talking out of their ass).

[copper223]

@Aneninen
In regards to Nosferatu:

You took the effort to make a quote-wall out of Irchers' with a conclusion of "null". Then you posted a sheep-vote for Copper.

In regards to me voting Nosferatu:

???

Explain.

[copper223]

It's not wrong to assume there is an sk in a large game, saying there is an sk in a large game does not make me scum. If there isn't one then this game is heavily in favor of us.

It is an oddly specific assumption to make.

[copper223]

@H_a
Disagree that quoting prior games is a town tell.

[copper223]

I would say that giving just under 100% is a fair analysis, because there is absolutely no way to be 100% certain. Scum lean on copper.

Really, so what % is your scumread on cythe at the moment?

[copper223]

The Nosferatu read is just nonsensically reachy.

The same can be said about your interpretation of my tongue-in-cheek to shotty.

[copper223]

So your read is nonsensically reachy?

Every read is at the start of d1 and that was my point both with shotty and as a reply to your dismissal of my read on Nos.

[copper223]

This is scum trying to write off their read as "j-just rvs".

Like, you went into quite a lot of detail about how it made him scum earlier. I have a hard time believing it was not a serious push.

Are you scum yourself or did you just decide to tunnel me this game? Cause I never said nor implied that my read on Nos was RVS or not serious in any way and I'd like to see what made you think that's what I said.

What I did say is that with the amount of data available any read you give me at this point in the game I can show to be complete crap by changing the assumptions (and there will be quite a few) on which it is built, my read on Nos relied on IIOA being a scumtell for her when she posted what she posted.

In other news I am liking Titus less and less, Mollie told me she is a tunneler so going off on me didn't raise any serious bells, but dropping me like a stone while still keeping a scumread

and

openly discussing her town meta about being a tunneler feels unnatural for the former and makes me wonder how calculated her initial tunnel was for the latter.

[copper223]

Pray tell where am I trying to "push it so hard"?

I was asked about that read by Magma and I explained where it came from

once

.

[copper223]

5. 318 - Coming around on a scumread on me - I fundamentally disagree with your approach here, and it really reads more as "I should change my read, so I can lynch him if necessary." Srry, but that's the motive I saw there. - -2 Points

I asked you what you were doing with your sheep Titus vote on me and you did not bother to reply, I find that sketchy.

6. It perplexes me as to why Copper decided to keep his vote on Nosferatu. Has Nos really struck your radar so much? If so, I think you need to expound on your earlier explanation for voting Nos. - -1 Point[/quote]
This never happened as my vote is on Seth.

[copper223]

I am a tunneller. You're still scum. I'll openly discuss who I am any day this week and twice on Sunday. Nice try there though scum.

Do you really think saying scum multiple times will make your case more compelling? Interact with me and show everyone that I actually am what you say I am if you truly believe it or go hide in a corner while I lynch your teammates first.

[copper223]

Please, the more you interact with scum knowing they are scum the more you are going to crack them and you know it as well as I do otherwise you wouldn't proudly claim to be a tunneler.

Doesn't your newly-found distancing need from Ircher make you question that list of names?

[copper223]

I also don't have a newly found need to distance. That's just framing and posturing in how you put the question.

Yes I wanted to give you a taste of your own medicine.

Fuck it, you read town to me.

[copper223]

@Ircher
That was obvious to us all.

The problem is that the way you weight it and the reads you choose to incorporate are completely arbitrary and as far as I can tell, assuming benign intentions, your reads this game are a giant OMGUS so you might as well replace it with a "who hates Ircher the most counter" and vote for them.

[copper223]

@Anen
Do you have game-time with KTS?

[copper223]

What was that last part? And how did that add up with that line above?
Also, you picked a single post from Magma for quoting in the same post. Why him?

Magma asked me a question hence the quote and why I addressed him.

What about the last part, if Seth is SK, he slipped up and is ready to admit it (as he has an above average chance of getting lynched anyway), we can use him.

The line above was the answer to Magma about why I picked those names.

[copper223]

Do you mean meta on KillTheStory? No. His posts show genuine scumhunting plus paranoia.

I get the part where you say me against the world is a town-tell but which posts do you find indicative of scumhunting for killthestory?

I think Seth is scum or anti-town at the very least because his approach this game has been to try and AtE while not even pretending to be scumhunting, justifying this with: scumhunting d1 is pointless anyway because I can be wrong about it (which in of itself I find more indicative of a scum mentality); I also checked him out and this doesn't seem to be his usual MO either.

[copper223]

On an unrelated note, I was concerned with the way ETL and Titus fell into an easy early alliance. Good to see that breaking up.

What if they are both town, wouldn't that be bad?

[copper223]

Hmmm, I disagree, town blocks are one of the more effective ways to win games but if this is your philosophy I'm fine with your answer.

[copper223]

@Egg
You are confident of Ircher scum over Seth scum?

[copper223]

Cuz, your explanation so far is not convincing to me nor lynchworthy.

You realize we are talking about your lynch here? How is Egg supposed to make it look lynchworthy to you given that from your point of view he has to be wrong by default?

[copper223]

@Egg
Fair enough, that's what I was looking for.

@All
Pretty much never lynch this guy because he is obv. town (if he turns out to be scum I'm a cry).

I don't think Seth and Ircher being on the same team is that likely though but that may be just me and my disgust for bussing.

[copper223]

@Ircher
It's the way you phrased it that makes me question you Ircher, that's how some third party that doesn't have knowledge of your alignment would put it but you are supposed to know you are town and factor that in, so why aren't you? Cause you are not town is the likely answer.

[copper223]

Seth is saying, if was scum and copper got him lynched, Seth would be SK, and Copper would be a mafia goon. This is because he is suggesting Copper is mafia and can't tell the difference between town / sk, or just other unlogic and trying to set up some quip

This is not the explanation Seth gave, it tells more about how you (want us to believe you) are reading the game.

What Seth said he meant is that lynching himself if he is goon or SK would be against his alignment (there is no direct mention of what he thinks of me), check for yourselves if that leap makes sense given the prior conversation, it does not to me.

I also am suspicious of the part where he says (paraphrasing): I am not like the rest that want to lynch you just because you are copper; that sentence implies he knows my alignment and is factoring it in his view of the game-state.

I don't have the same conviction as either you or Aneninen on KTS but I'm definitely leaning more scum than town on him, the interesting part is if I am interpreting things differently from Anen or if he filtered in a buddy read in what otherwise seems like a good list, at the moment I think the former is more likely.

[copper223]

I thought the same thing about "stubborn/confrontational Ircher" being a possible town tell (it often is with newer players), but from the meta available that is not the case.

[copper223]

Meh. I think you are blowing minor differences out of proportion personally.

It's possible, having reviewed Nosferatu I think it's more likely a personality trait in her case rather than something alignment indicative, but in general I still stand by the read.

The number of players that have latched onto and pressured me about it I find surprising though, there could be something there.

[copper223]

To the part addressed to me, I do think that Icher is scum, as stated before. But I think Copper is even more sus, imo. I admit I am/was lazy and I plan on changing that lol. This is just so damn overwhelming and something I need to get used to xD.

Orly, please elaborate.

[copper223]

@Zakk
Heur is mislynch material so if you are town check out more of his stuff to make sure of your read, alternatively you should join us on Seth, Seth is scum.

[copper223]

We should drop the cytheflyguy's wagon, he's a bad lynch, he's obviously new to the game and doesn't know that what's he saying will certainly lead to him being perceived as scummy.

Why are you ruling out that he is new

and

scum?

[copper223]

@Seth
Pretty much what expe said, you've been seemingly avoiding this game but now that the pressure on your slot is reaching critical mass you drop a town-read on one of the other very controversial players and the motivation you give is that being new it's more likely he will be perceived as scum by the rest of us (which is fair enough) but you then go ahead and call him town, so what is it that gives him away as a newbie of the townie variety to you?

[copper223]

@Seth
I am not asking you why you can call him a newbie, I am asking you why you are calling him a

town

newbie?

I am trying not to confbias here but this reads like you knowing his alignment and justifying your read by proving a tangential point which is irrelevant for the read itself (this would likely imply we are not in a multiball), why are you even focusing so much on the newbie part, the important read is whether he is town or scum.

[copper223]

The whole argument which you are basing the read on, i.e. newbies getting scum read more often, relies on them

unknowingly

posting in what others would consider a scummy way, it doesn't make sense in most cases that they would be able to switch it off when they are scum otherwise they would avoid doing it as town as well.

But ok, this answer at least is not scummy.

[copper223]

I am still not moving from Seth, maybe he is a rare snowflake (happened once with another newbie) but he ticked all my boxes and at one point you have to put up with type I errors to avoid giving too many type II's a get out of jail for free card.

@Lowell
Can you explain your townread on Seth? (The same goes for everyone else that thinks he is town).

[copper223]

@Nahdia
What has Seth done between page 20 and page 33 to go from IDK LOL to top townread?

[copper223]

Why is him saying that cyto is a newbie that is getting scumread because of it (and hence town because only newbie town is superficially scummy, newbie scum somehow is not) townie?

[copper223]

-_-

[copper223]

At least give an explanation why you voted Ircher.
Elaborate on your read list, you just categorized players into alignments without an actual analysis, even one-liners are enough.

That's pretty demanding of you considering your answer when asked about your reads was that you don't have any as it is pointless to scumhunt D1 and the lynch is a lottery.

[copper223]

VOTE: Ircher

[copper223]

Confirmed Town (From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM  (100%) - Role PM

Translation: I am making a readlist to show you how town I am.

What's the RVS hypocrisy you are talking about in my "read"?

[copper223]

Whoever said that Ircher is town for not crumbling under the pressure didn't bother to check how he plays as scum or had a vested interest in town-reading that slot (can't scroll back easily on the phone).

[copper223]

@Anen
In the game I just finished with town_heur where only the townies knew about an inno child, I softed quite hard that I knew who it was and he followed up with a vote on me, after calling me town before, so I really don't know how much he understands of how to play the game, I agree that his iso is terrible here and he seems even more disengaged from the game than in the last one.

[copper223]

I read the one where you were scum with Titus and although some players started hammering you D1 you dealt with them pretty well.

[copper223]

Are you seriously trying to peddle that including yourself as Town in a reads list is scummy behavior?

It's ridiculous to put yourself in a read list, so what's your motivation for doing so?

Speaking of peddling, explain to me again how I'm interacting only with LHF's and why you think that would be scummy?

[copper223]

some people put themselves in readlists. it's dumb and silly but it's usually just related to the player, not their alignment. i've seen Ircher make that same style readslist as town.

Noted.

The main point against Ircher this game is that everything is about him, all of his reads can be directly tracked back to how the other player feels about him, it feels off.

[copper223]

Yeah it is ridiculous. Doesn’t make it scummy at all and the fact you tried to float it as such is scummy.

Bullshit, in many cases it's scum trying to behave like town and failing, in this instance it turns out to be quirk of how Ircher plays.

Are you seriously asking why I think an experienced player choosing to basically focus on a couple what I view as potentially easy lynches (Ircher due to pressure through the day and Seth based on his join date)? I mean you but up a lot of questions to people – myself, Egg, Expedience – but those questions seem to lead no-where. I don’t see any development.

Do you think my time would be better spent going after untouchables or incredibly hard to read players? You are not going to lynch don Corleone on D1 but you might screw him if you find the weak link and that's why more of my pressure has been on newer players that I find scummy.

I haven't however touched cyto. so LHF is not the determinant, your problem here is that you are accusing me of going after LHF when some LHF are a subset of potentially scum and the intersection is the perfect place to scumhunt D1.

Really, what about me saying Egg should never be lynched cause he is obvious town seems like not a conclusion to you? I haven't explicitly said so but by the way I'm interacting with him you can also tell I think expe. is town.

Maybe Nosferatu but you stopped that early pressure and have never returned to him.

Also false, I explicitly stated that having checked Nosferatu out I think that early read does not apply to her and it's more of a personality trait, in particular the fact she checked all the links about someone else's meta in a post not addressed to her makes me think she is just thorough regardless of her alignment.

I really dislike the "incredulous" tone you are using to interact with me and the apparent conclusions you are drawing without either fact checking or asking me what I think about something before coming out and disagreeing or calling me scum for my opinions, which would at least seem more legit, this looks like a smear campaign.

[copper223]

@Ircher
Fair enough, I'll refresh my memory about our game together but once again what "hypocrisy" are you talking about?

[copper223]

@Nadhia
I think you are town but you're being unreasonable, if you believe you have something on Anen that is crushing explain it to the rest of us so we can lynch him, instead of blowing raspberries.

Anen seems town to me but he did fuck me over in a horrible game by pocketing me and this could be a repeat performance.

[copper223]

I meant about when you never moved your vote in RVS despite townreading me; I already heard your defense, and while it's a fair defense, I'm still factoring that in.

It's not a defense, it's a fact and you can check it both by looking at my online activity after my airport connection terminated (non existent) and by looking at my past games.

[copper223]

This is a bit of an ego post and it's hard to judge it's merit from my perspective, but if Titus, who is looking more and more town here, is right about TGB then Aneninen is also more likely to be scum and to my shame so is Egg; if this is the world we are in it suggests they may be able to communicate in some non standard way given the mod post because they'd need some read coordination to pull it off, ironically in this case part of the faction backing me up is probably the scum team, if so I hate you guys for doing this to me .

[copper223]

VOTE: TGB

[copper223]

Ok paranoia moment is over.

VOTE: Magma

[copper223]

Ok for those that don't think TGB is scum, we need a viable alternative.

I have a town read on every player on the Aneninen wagon so if I don't come up with anything better after reviewing tomorrow this is where I'll vote.

[copper223]

@Zakk
The only thing it has going for it is that despite his terrible posting, heur. isn't getting hard wagoned, but that could also be because scum has already committed elsewhere, on Ircher if Titus is on the level and right, on TGB if she is wrong or scum.

I just finished a game with him and my read is he is once again newbie town here.

[copper223]

@Anen
What's your read on magma?

[copper223]

Also for those that have played often with Titus, is she usually more engaged as scum or town or is that NAI for her?

[copper223]

Nosferatu is not a bad lynch.

Seth being a jerk in another game (I get the impression he didn't really want to be that offensive but it came off that way) is not a reason to policy him, if you are sensitive about the topic I understand replacing out though.

[copper223]

Copper:
Right now, lean-town.
I can see a town-mindset behind his interrogating gameplay and he's trying to engage everyone.
Earlier I thought his push on me was pigeon poop. He started focusing on my Malkavian post (Which I made for testing others' reactions but it didn't work out since most players ignored it. Because of the general ignorance I can tell this now.) – and he ignored that I had had plenty of other posts too. But that could have come from a paranoid town mind.
Why do you think he's scum?

The way he approached the conversation with me makes me think he is probing for weaknesses to see if I'm a viable lynch instead of trying to figure me out (both the tone and the content).

Take the LHF accusation, I've been going back and forth on Ircher, I started the wagon on Seth, I defended heur. multiple times, I did not join the cythefly discussion because I have a very marginal town read there, his point that I've been hunting LHFs exclusively to drive a mislynch through also ignores a lot of my other interactions and reads I've made public and I have a hard time seeing it as genuine.

Further for someone that he is investigating as scum he made quite a few inaccurate statements about what I posted (re. Nosferatu and Egg), and if he really felt genuine about the points he is making I would expect a vote on me and trying to rally support, cause I would expect that would be a strong indication of me being scum in his mind, instead as I said at the time this looks more like a smear campaign (if he is scum and I was pushing a buddy of his) or probing (if I'm on the wrong track and he thinks he might be able to lynch me after a few flips).

[copper223]

@Anen
Please do so, it's an OMGUS tainted read so I'm happy to get as many 3rd party views on it as possible.

[copper223]

Copper, if the scum team had Titus, Anen, AND myself, holy shit town may as well just forfeit lol.

, I think the two of us aren't that different in the way we play and I come up with this stuff more often as town.

Agreed that ETL is a terrible lynch (Perusival pushing that has lost a lot of town points), I am less certain about Seth now that my read on him includes awkward young adult that might say random stuff all the time but I'd support that over TBG, heur. I also don't like for reasons that I've already mentioned.

What do you think of Nosferatu or Magma?

@Expe.
Why are you expressing moral judgments (disgusting etc...) instead of reads this game? What's up with policy lynching Seth? None of that seems like your usual logical persona.

[copper223]

Anen, can you explain your TBG read? I know you did awall but I am not following it with all the funy names and awkward speech.

His eintritt in 102 was both lazy and terrible. His laters are a bit better, but eg. 520 is again a lazy-push. His readlist 532 may or may not be genuine. Having checked it again, however, all the scumreads are "safe". (I mean, as far as I can remember, at that time any of those reads would have gained support from others.) He performed a Regardless of Card on Ircher in 603. Another lazy vote in 804. Actually, re-ISO-ing him again I've seen worse content than I remembered.
The conflict is that he looks like an easy wagon and people who don't really agree each other jumped on it. He looks like a "safe compromize".

- 102 is TBG accusing Ircher and Shotty of bein buddies and saying Titus's case on me has no merit, what's so lazy and terrible about it?

- I see your pont about the cythefly comment, I again don't get the "safe" scum reads one though, Titus is not a safe scum read to make.

- 603 is consistent with his position in 102 that Ircher/Shotty is a thing.

- I again see your point in 804, but all of these players are objectively scummy (because they still lack experience on how to present themselves or are actually obv. scum) so it doesn't sound that crazy to me that he would take these stances.

[copper223]

@Anen
I follow, I think we are coming from different perspectives because I don't have the same certainty that Ircher is town and I have to deal with OMGUR when reading him.

[copper223]

also anen is scum. he slipped but I'm mobile so find it yourself.

I have been good and I hard defended you while they were trying to lynch you as V/LA, now please show me where he slipped.

[copper223]

VOTE: Aneninen

[copper223]

Copper, what did you mean by I've been good? I need to know otherwise I will make the wrong icecream order and shit might get bad if that happens. ETL, you can answer this too.

That good has nothing to do with ice creams.

[copper223]

@Anen
The more town ETL and Titus look, the more likely it is that you are on the wrong side of the fence with Persivul, Egg etc..., plus I still vividly remember the last time you tried to be my handler when you were scum and I was on and off the Heartless hydra and this has somewhat the same feel to it.

[copper223]

It's a pretty horrible game for me, but here is the link: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=60351

[copper223]

@Titus
If you don't have the numbers on TBG and we don't have them on Anen, Persivul seems to be a cross read between the two groups.

[copper223]

Um whut? That you avoided one person who is low hanging fruit that means you are excused from the accusation? And your supposition that Low Hanging Fruit are a great place to scum-hunt Day 1 is bad given the realities of scum-Town make-up in games. Low Hanging Fruit are more likely to be Town as a whole than scum and are much more prone to being mislynched if Town.

I need to read over your ISO in World of Gumball to see how well it comports with this claim.

There are 4/5 LHF's in this game and my stance on every one of them is different:

Ircher: started town, moved to meh, moved to scum, moved to meh, moved to tentatively town.

Seth: started scum, moved to most likely scum, moved to scum, moved to meh.

Cythefly: started tentative town and stayed there.

Heur: started tentative town and moved to town.

Nos: Started leaning scum, moved to null, moved to leaning town.

Given the above I find it hard to swallow that your accusation that being a LHF is a determinant for me going after a certain player comes from magma_town.

Being an LHF and being scummy is a determinant for how much pressure I will put on you, that's true and I already explained why that makes sense.

I strongly disagree that LHF is alignment indicative, if you consider anecdotal evidence proof (which is a fallacy) it is actually scum indicative in my games sample size.

If you are Town? Absolutely. There is no such thing as an untouchable player. You see scum you go after it regardless of reputation. You on the other hand are happy to avoid the ‘hard targets’ to instead hunt among new players who don’t have any more likelihood of drawing scum as anyone else.

And I know that the unspoken factor as to why you might go this route certainly does not apply to you.

How do you know what my state of mind is while doing something? That sounds like narrative peddling from scum, if you think I'm scum based on my play don't introduce elements like how happy or sad I am about doing something as those are unverifiable by definition.

The whole accusation apparatus of this part of the post is debunked by what I highlighted above (LHF not relevant for my reads).

The rest is nicely worded but and idealistic if true but not the way to go. In Shaman, a game Egg was in, Brian skies knew I was scum from the middle of D2, he wasted his time arguing with me which resulted in most of the rest of town calling it a TvT and helped me cover for my other teammate TTH (whom Brian also had a scumread on, in fact he decided I had to be her teammate because I was sabotaging his push on her, which was true). If he had gone about it in the proper order, first gain support to lynch TTH, and only then, once you have shown the rest of town that they can trust your reads tackle copper, he would have likely won the game, as is he lost despite his good reads.

I’ll be waiting for the many examples from you that support your supposition.

Also – I’ll have to dig but I’m half remembering that someone else in this thread put themselves in as a Town in some sort of reads list and don’t recall you batting an eye at it. Maybe I’m mis-remembering another game. I’ll look once I am caught up this week.

Anecdotal evidence is once again not proof (at most it may show why I may be biased and call it a tell when it may be null and in that case wgeurts did it as newbie scum in the first game he played on site, off the top of my head), given the opposition and the remarks that some players do it as a quirk I've read I may have to can the tell in the future though.

[copper223]

So you Town read Nahdia, Lowell and Matt?

Yep, they are also already in order of strength.

[copper223]

VOTE: TBG
I also thought there was likely 1 scum in the hood and that's why I asked Seth which of those three was his teammate (I thought he was very likely scum and showing him I also had another name in my list would smash his confidence even more).

Zakk's point on Titus "handwaiving is complete nonsense, you can track her copper read and when she starts doubting I am scum pretty easily (she gives plenty of hints, like when she says one of her reads is moving out of her scumpool and she puts me as the last name on her scum pool list, to when she explicitly states I'm out of her pool and Matt is in, and that's before liger took IAI's place).

TBG coming in and agreeing with that terrible point from Zakk, as the only input he is giving when he is the main wagon close to the deadline, has pushed him over to likely scum for me.

Town reading Liger for outing the hood is silly, he hasn't done anything scummy but he is not getting a pass from me because of that in a million years.

@Magma
It doesn't make sense to me to focus mostly on player a) but vote player b).

[copper223]

Scum reads, also needs ordering:
copper

Copper .... are good town reads for me

[copper223]

Magna vs Persivul is clearly town vs town. They aren't afraid of being in a smaller scum pool. So it looks like if there is exactly one scum neighbor, it's Copper.

This is an interesting way to phrase it, what happens when there isn't exactly 1 instead?

[copper223]

I’m curious to see because you preemptively gave him an out to say no-one in the question as you phrased it.

Also – did it shake him as you expected it too? If so point to the post / posts that show that please.

If his personality was of the type that instinctively defends his teammates and he quickly replied nobody, that would have been a nice little scum slip (how is seth_town supposed to know there are none?), so I was happy to give him that out (quickly answering nobody not only would have confirmed him as scum, it would have strongly indicated there was at least one there).

It did not appear to faze in him at all.

[copper223]

EBWOP

Magna vs Persivul is clearly town vs town. They aren't afraid of being in a smaller scum pool. So it looks like if there is exactly one scum neighbor, it's Copper.

This is an interesting way to phrase it, what happens when there isn't exactly 1 instead?[/quote]

[copper223]

@Persivul
Why are you so eager to flip if you aren't even sure that Titus/ETL are scum and pushing on you?

[copper223]

@Zakk
I'll answer after Persivul does.

[copper223]

No, he said 24 hours plus ???

[copper223]

@Titus
That could be a thing especially if Anen is scum cause he was very quick to pick up on your budding wagon analysis, possibly indicating scum was talking about stalling in the way you describe.

[copper223]

Copper... what the fuck comment are you even making here? How is this game relevant in any way whatsoever?

Do something or get lynched.

Stop making retarded posts and being rude motherfucker.

[copper223]

I support Titus's point that we have a day to get the lynch in and so should everyone else, banking on an extension is really stupid or coming from scum.

@ETL
Yep, I am commenting on your play (which is abysmal if you are town), you are throwing around insults, which gets old really fast.

In fact I if you continue I'm going to just do the standard thing with your kind, policy lynch every time I have the misfortune of not catching you in the list before the game starts.

[copper223]

Ok. Did you form enough of a personality read to make an assessment of what that reaction meant before he replaced out? Clearly I thought the question was suspect when you asked it given Robert had not even posted and IAI was basically a ghost … I didn’t think you could possibly get any meaning ful reaction with those facts in play.

Yes, his game plan from when he started posting had been to AtE the other player (or the player base in general), which he later turned to buddying when I started to press my scumread, I was expecting one of those two to continue and possibly give something away in the process but he instead ignored the question.

I doubt logical arguments like the lack of participation in the game from 2 of the 4 players in the list, which you believe to be a factor in his reaction, would change it.

[copper223]

@Titus
1/4 makes sense for a lot of reasons design-wise but those are not the odds of hitting scum.

In Gumball someone was quoting a TTH game where Kagami played well by recognizing the whole neighborhood was town, I'll have to check if cakez was part of that one when not on the phone.

[copper223]

@Zakk

Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is

If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.

[copper223]

VOTE: Persivul

[copper223]

Um wasn’t the Firebringer who was the Neighborizor in that game scum?

Yes, there was also another game http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=65000 from TTH going on that finished before the large (and it came up in Gumball, likely while Kagami and Spiffeh were arguing cause they were both in the other game as well) but cakez wasn't playing that one. Still goes to show that setup speccing, especially early on, makes some sense only if you're already suspicious beforehand based on play.

[copper223]

@ETL
Scum to null.

There's a decent chance Anen slipped when he paid too much attention to my comment to Persivul (when Persivul claimed it was bad that ETL/Titus started the game working together and I asked him, what if they are both town?) and Anen's reply (you make a good point but Persi. has done something unrelated that I find townie so I'm going to ignore it) seems like a cautious buddy defense.

Magma is a hard read because of OMGUS but if scum is aligned close to the block Titus is proposing he is more likely to be town here and if he is better at reading LHF's than me and Seth/Ircher are both actually town him being suspicious does make some sense.

Liger outed the hood, it's a move I've seen scum do to gain easy cred cause town is starved for info and when you get some you're prone to thank the bearer and consider him on your side irrationally, the rest of his posting though doesn't ping me as especially scummy, he has more of a clueless helpful air.

And yes, that was Seth's reply.

@All
TBG's 1734 is not half bad, it's possible he is conf. biasing on Titus and that's why he endorsed Zakk's horrible read a few pages back.

[copper223]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

[copper223]

@mod: do we know if scum gets fake claims?

[copper223]

Some of the latest posts from Persivul are making me re-examine the read.

[copper223]

I know I've tried his approach when I was frustrated town of telling the accuser that the stuff he was accusing me of was never going to be part of my scum game (spoiler: they never believe it so you might as well drop that line of argument if you're town Persi.).

[copper223]

Your saviour is here. Allow me to catch up a bit or get the jist of where things are.

Your slot is one of the preferred lynches of the faction that is currently getting wagon-ed, I'm therefore pretty interested in the jist of where things are from your pov.

[copper223]

@Titus
Neighbor (with possible modifiers) is a role in the game.

[copper223]

Why? I haven't done very much this game?

Also wtf is a LHF

You started with what looked like IIoA (information instead of analysis) with your comment about Ircher's stats which was a potential scum tell, after you injected into the conversation with shotty where you were questioning why he clicked only one of the links I decided you must be more of thorough person in general and that tell possibly doesn't apply to you, the latest development came during the Persi. wagon debate, I thought the chainsaw argument made sense.

LHF: Low hanging fruit, someone that looks scummy so you want to pick him (i.e. lynch him).

[copper223]

if the mod wanted a group of all town with a PT, he'd make them masons.

Not necessarily, balance-wise you may want them not to know they are all town and that makes a sizeable difference in how much power you are giving that group from the start, it depends on what other town PR's are around basically and at the moment that is useless speculation.

[copper223]

Agreed. You still think Kop is more likely scum than Persi?

[copper223]

copper - lean town - what was your intent in naming the hood in 181?

See my back and forth with Magma.

[copper223]

I also thought there was likely 1 scum in the hood and that's why I asked Seth which of those three was his teammate (I thought he was very likely scum and showing him I also had another name in my list would smash his confidence even more).

Ok. Did you form enough of a personality read to make an assessment of what that reaction meant before he replaced out? Clearly I thought the question was suspect when you asked it given Robert had not even posted and IAI was basically a ghost … I didn’t think you could possibly get any meaning ful reaction with those facts in play.

Yes, his game plan from when he started posting had been to AtE the other player (or the player base in general), which he later turned to buddying when I started to press my scumread, I was expecting one of those two to continue and possibly give something away in the process but he instead ignored the question.

I doubt logical arguments like the lack of participation in the game from 2 of the 4 players in the list, which you believe to be a factor in his reaction, would change it.

[copper223]

Persivul needs to full claim.

[copper223]

I do not, I want him to confirm it one way or the other.

[copper223]

No problem, it's fine to question other player's motivations. Did you take a look at the players that wanted to lynch the previous owner of your slot?

[copper223]

If you're town more than your own play you should be concerned about what others are doing and looking at what from your perspective are incorrect pushes is a place to start. Assuming you are town:
1) Do you find the previous owner of the slot scummy (unfortunately you may be biased here, try to minimize it)
2) If yes, then which pushes seem like genuine town being suspicious? => you have a town read
3) If no, then which pushes seem opportunistic and indicative that the player pushing is doing so with an ulterior motive; i.e. that player is scum aligned. => you have a scum read.

[copper223]

Persivul full claim please

You guys stop cluttering the thread with nonsense and wait for the important information, thanks.

[copper223]

VOTE: KTS
I'll switch back later if the CW doesn't pick up.

[copper223]

What's this? A counter wagon right when persivul is about to get lynched? And it's on a known troll who shitposts constantly in every game regardless of alignment? Say it ain't so!

Why aren't you voting Persi?

[copper223]

because I don't need to because he's being lynched? If someone wants to VCA later, by all means consider me on there, but I don't vote people who I know for sure will be lynched without my direct involvement.

Man alive what is this?

You don't know if he is going to be lynched now for sure and you had the hammer before so you could have ended the day if you wanted to; if you are town and think he is scum as you have been saying for the latest x pages I see no reason not to follow through with the vote unless you have clairvoyance powers you haven't told us about.

I'm going to check your meta to see if you usually follow this kind of MO wrt votes.

[copper223]

@Matt
I wouldn't mind you putting him back at L-1.

[copper223]

VOTE: kop

[copper223]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

U scum here Nahdia huh?

[copper223]

Magma had a bad connection in the PT but for someone who claimed he wanted to vet me to see if we could make something out of being neighbors he did not even ask me one question, he also had TBG as strong scum and he did not reply when I asked him why he thought so given that would imply TBG WKd his CW (could still be because of the connection but I still want an answer).

[copper223]

ETL makes sense as a kill, TBG was awfull if it was town aligned.

[copper223]

I think she is enjoying herself with her random pushes without explanaitions a bit too much and after having had more exposure to her playstile I think this is scum indicative. The hammer there was also a neat play if she is scum. I already told the PT and if magma is scum this is not news, I would flip similar to Persi. so when he claimed I decided to see to give a push to the KTS wagon (like Nos I also believed that CW was total crap and you might as well go for a random), the idea being that if the CW really picked up you were right and Persi/TBG/Shotty and co. where scum protecting each other, if it did not then Persi was likely town. Nahdia cut that play short.

[copper223]

By all means, scum do copper please.

[copper223]

i didn't agree to ur deal. i lolhammered Pers because i wanted to and because i didn't like the KTS counterwagon.

You hammered to get style points as scum.

[copper223]

Kop is the likeliest hipster scum on the CW, 7 posts mostly dedicated to target Persi without voting for him, reaction testing Aneninen without a follow-up and voting for the random lynch. Seth was bad enough but the replacement actually made it worse.

[copper223]

@Nos
Why KTS over Kop btw?

[copper223]

Why is it disingenuous that I say this is what I do and you refusing to go ahead and look for it if you think it's that big of a deal? The burden of proof is also on you to provide examples of me saying things just to get people lynched. You've got a lot of stuff to do lol.

This is again so effin scummy. You can't lynch me if you don't find proof lalala, I am

definitely

not going to help you cause I don't have a vested interest in you avoiding wasting time on me instead of looking for real scum, right?

But then:

I've already checked the most recent games, it's not there. Check more earlier games. I would cite one game but it's not finished.

So you went ahead and looked but didn't find an example you could cite, I will look at all your recent meta, particularly if you've changed it since the accusation was first leveled.

I said in the PT that you might still be town cause this shit is almost too scummy to be scum, but holy cow are you playing against your alignment if that's the case.

@Lowell
Explain your Shaziro read please.

[copper223]

Anen_scum being on the 3rd beauty wagon before going V/LA makes a lot of sense, if Anen is scum then Magma likely is as well (see Anen's defence / not defence when I asked him what he thought about my push on him).

I do not buy the case for Zakk_scum.

[copper223]

I don't understand this at a quintessential level.

I will explain it at the essential level -5, if the meta is so recent that it happened after the point became relevant in this game that would actually be scummy.

[copper223]

So what you're saying is, if Nos changed their meta in other games to fit what they were claiming in this game, it would suggest they wanted you to see that and assume it was normal, which would be scummy?

Yes.

[copper223]

So help me get more out of that slot by pressuring it with a vote, Kop doesn't seem to volunteer much information on his own.

[copper223]

What's your read on Kop Zakk?

[copper223]

Erm... what?
Are you saying that I had known what sort of wagons had been going to emerge later when I had to V/LA?

More like you are a possible left-over from the scum transfer from TBG to Persivul.

[copper223]

I am not getting a hang of this game because the players that agree with me more are the ones that can trick me as scum.

@Anen
Tackle the big questions, is Titus scum?

[copper223]

I still don't get you. I didn't scumread Persivul at all. His ETL-push was the only thing looked scummy. I know I haven't read those pages I missed thoroughly, but the whole case was at least partly based upon that "scum in the Neighbourhood" theory. What do you think of that?

I'll do a summary of the transfer from TBG to Persi after work, that should be useful. Your position is a extravagant because scum or town Titus was right that Persi and TBG were acting as a block, turns out it was a town block and she either took advantage of it or screwed up (I am very slightly leaning towards the latter but almost out of respect I have to think I don't know how to read her and she is scum ffs), I am trying to make sense of that anomaly in your reads.

Regarding the PT, as I already explained, if there is one it's Magma, there are some things that point at him being town and some scum (those I already mentioned, he claimed to be vetting me to make use of the PT but then had a terrible connection (which I believe) but didn't even ask me a question in the post he made, he also claimed to be scumreading TBG and shotty, that shows little read adaptation after the NK cause it would imply TBG WK'd his CW as scum and that would be a really weird move.

Liger reads as town to me.

But yeah I get your point on Nos.

[copper223]

There also is a possible Titus Magma connection there, given she claimed to have shot TBG, could be they thought TBG would still look scummy today and they could brush it away as a town kill, especially given Titus's tunnel on him and Persi.

[copper223]

P.s. What would your reaction be if I shot TBG?

She hinted at it.

[copper223]

Anomaly?

Die Besonderheit ist dass Du Persi als Bürger und TBG als Mafioso gelesen hast.

The anomaly I am talking about is that you were reading TBG as scum but Persi as town.

[copper223]

The hypothesis being: it's unnatural so maybe you didn't get to coordinate the read switch like the rest of your team cause you were V/LA.

[copper223]

I don't like this case because of the sheer fact that it's so easy to make.

Being scummy is not a town tell.

[copper223]

@Nos
In what way is Anen's case easy to make?

[copper223]

5. "didn't make conclusions from drunk post" - apparently I was supposed to be able to interpret a drunkpost in a foreign language and make a conclusion as to his alignment from it. It was barely coherent German in the first place, how would a foreigner such as myself or anyone for that matter be able to draw anything from that. No one else did. Surely someone else scum read him as well, but none are held to this standard.

It might just be you have a play-stile I'm just not familiar with, his point here is that you took the time to translate the post, which implies a certain level of focus and effort (presumably you are looking for something alignment indicative, right?) but then did nothing with it, why not ask to clarify if it didn't make much sense?

He then claims you might be preparing the ground for a push on him, that I don't see, it's either town paranoia or him trying to mimic it.

It's the same kind of tell I had on you earlier about Ircher's statistics, some scum players focus on these minutiae cause they already know the alignment of the player they are interacting with and come up with these alignment neutral statements to try to appear busy or to avoid lying.

[copper223]

@Anen
I agree with Nos about your fourth point, since when is town less likely to make obvious blunders (after the fact) compared to scum? You are not considering the scum mindset at all (other than calling her incompetent I guess), if you then segued with: look how she uses pie-in-the-face here to try to get town-cred (and that's why she wrote that chainsaw post), or look how Persi. was right about her and she desperately needed to silence him, then ok, but like you put it it makes very little sense to scum read her for it and I have to question your motivation.

[copper223]

I am working on a big post and it's looking promising, it relies on Ircher being shittown and Titus being set-up today (I will do the analysis for the opposite case as well), all I can say if this is the world we are in is that Anen. is a god and Nahdia is about to get pwned

[copper223]

Have to take a brake cause it's a boring process and I am trying to work as well, but (some of this relies on the assumption about Ircher and Titus):

Magna is likely scum, he has voted only town players including all three top wagons yesterday, the theory that there is one in the hood is also still the most likely and scum are peddling it probably to look smart because they know it's the case, right Nos? His push on me yesterday coordinates well with what his likely buddies were doing.

Nahdia is likely scum, she has kept the same scum reads since the start of the game, she pushed the Ircher wagon, my early crap wagon, dropped in to lynch Persi again and Anen is right that her PM read is a likely buddy read (high five if you were right). There are strong signs of coordination with Nosferatu as well and of taking advantage of and setting up Titus.

Nosferatu is likely scum, she jumped on my early crap wagon, which Titus kindly provided, then voted for the Kop_slot (whom I am now assuming is a worse version of KTS), did her best to get Persi lynched without voting him cause otherwise it would have been a scum-pile (that knowing he would be lynched is a likely slip, she knew her teammates could hammer), her coordinated push with Nahdia today on Anen. is another sign that they are working together (one fills the list for the other when manipulating Titus after all).

Project Matt is likely scum, I was fooled by the sensible position he took on my crap wagon, but he "promised" to keep an eye on it when Titus once again gave him an excuse to jump on it, which I now think is code for: I am not going to commit now cause my teammates are already on it, but if it starts to look juicy I'll jump. The rest of his agenda is pretty helpful to scum as the big post will highlight.

For the fifth I am going with Egg, hard defense of Magma equating him to Persi in a clear TvT (pretty scummy if Magna is scum as I expect), he is positioned to jump on copper, which again matches up well with what the other suspects are doing, but doesn't really want to cause that would compromise Magna, while pushing the much safer and defensible reads on shit/new-town (Ircher, Kop and Shaz). Still have to check his position on Anen.

VOTE: Magna

[copper223]

Vote Tally Table

	Anen	Cythefly	Egg	Expe	Ircher	Kop	Liger	Lowell	Magna	Nahdia	Nos	PMatt	Shaz	Shotty	Titus	Zakk
1	Kop	Ircher	Ircher	Copper	Shaz	Copper	Zakk	Zakk	Liger	Ircher	Copper	TBG	Magna	Magna	Copper	Ircher
2	TGB	Titus	Kop	KTS	Shotty	Cythefly	Persi	TBG	TBG	Copper	Kop	Cythefly	Cythefly	Ircher	Shotty	Ircher
3	Nos	TGB	KTS	Kop	Copper	KTS	No Vote	Magna	KTS	Anen	-	Kop	Persi	Titus	Cythefly	Cythefly
4	-	Persi	-	Persi	Kop	Shotty	-	Shaz	TBG	Persi	-	Anen	Persi	Ircher	TBG	ETL
5	-	Titus	-	Nahdia	Nos	-	-	Anen	Persi	Copper	-	Persi	Nos	Titus	Persi	Titus
6	-	-	-	Persi	Cythefly	-	-	Persi	-	Anen	-	Anen	Zakk	Ircher	Persi	Persi
7	-	-	-	-	TBG	-	-	Zakk	-	-	-	-	-	Kop	Zakk	KTS
8	-	-	-	-	Persi	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Egg	-	Persi
9	-	-	-	-	Shotty	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Zack	-	Titus
10	-	-	-	-	Shaz	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Pers	-	Lowell
11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TBG	-	Titus
12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KTS	-	-
13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Titus	-	-
14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Zakk	-	-
15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Titus	-	-

[copper223]

What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:

Anen: town getting pushed by scum.

Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.

Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?

Expe: Town not having a fun time.

Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.

Liger: town newbie.

Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.

Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).

Nos: see pre-post read.

PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).

Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.

Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).

Titus: town by definition in this world.

Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.

[copper223]

I'll do the opposite where Titus is brazen scum later, I need some hours to break out of the mindset I am in now cause at the moment this world seems so likely I'd just confbias the shit out of every read.

[copper223]

Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.

Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?

I find the strength of the tunnel genuine. Once you flip, if you are town, how is shotty planning to stay alive to win? Do you think you are worth a trade?

[copper223]

That's a logical fallancy; it's why stuff like bussing works.

As to your Q --> Maybe not the best move, but still one that I could see scum to attempt. At this point, Shotty prob. doesn't want to be accused of backtracking, so that's why Shotty continues to be so focused on tunneling me.

With your post and now vote history the only reason you are alive if you are town (also as scum but to a lesser degree) is that Titus has been shielding you, a hard tunnel by a townie is not that difficult to imagine.

It's not impossible that shotty is scum if you are town, I am much more certain of Magna.

[copper223]

I did not start by assuming you were wrong on all your reads, and I do think you are right about 1 point, that being there is scum in the hood, rather when reviewing your other scum reads I arrived at different conclusions, in order for you to be "the battering ram" scum is using your incorrect reads on Persi/TBG and posts where people I think are scum are interacting with you is what is important.

I do not think Zakk is scum because he exhibits the same tells in his vote pattern as shotty and you, it's going to be very hard for him to stay alive after you flip and if he is scum he is doing so knowing your alignment which takes a ballsy player, add to that he also had unique pushes that nobody cared about or seemed to want to follow up which makes me think he is going solo this game.

His reads (like yours) also make sense if you assume certain players have a given alignment and you add some OMGUS bias, which makes them more likely organic rather than planned.

Shotty I am less certain about, because he seems (over-)confident enough to try and pull a hard tunnel and disavowal the day after, but I still think it's less likely than the players I've mentioned as scum.

[copper223]

@Nahdia
Where did your scum read of Magna go scum?

[copper223]

@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.

Reassess please with that knowledge.

What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?

P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.

I made multiple points about Zakk, you focused on one you didn't like which still makes sense to me, I have a few other that are more gut based on what and when he posted, so no.

Why is Shaz needed for Nahdia to be scum?

[copper223]

he's in a hood with you and you're scummier so.

Try again because after your intro where you mention both Magna and PM as scum (very "insightful" of you) and then make sure to add that magna always looks scummy to you (so he could be a false positive) you never touch that read again, Liger's revelation comes quite a bit later.

[copper223]

My point is you dropping the Magna read and me being in a hood with him are not as connected as you claim.

[copper223]

@Nos
Because you are helping to frame the context for Titus (I mentioned that also to highlight how coordinated your play and Nahdia's is).

@Zakk
Yeah IIoA, disregarding that I started posting about what I was doing and what results were coming out while in the process...

I noticed after posting that I'd forgotten to write about Lowell and decided to leave it like that to see if either of you would ask me about it, the votes there make me lean town mainly cause he voted Magna.

[copper223]

when did i say i was dropping the magna read b4 that.

When you did nothing further with it.

[copper223]

i basically said "ope, never mind, here's the analysis", so why are you taking umbrage with that?

Because I am tired after working for a long long time not having yet grabbed a bite and your comment, after I took the time to try and start to solve this game instead of throwing around scum reads just annoyed the heck out of me and made me think you are possibly being disingenuous to keep your options open.

[copper223]

i think you either omitted it ON PURPOSE or you didn't notice at all, and yuo're trying to cover up after the fact.

lowell is clearly not gonna ask you about it, and i would not have noticed except i wanted specifically to see what you thought of lowell camping. i might not have even noticed it at all. and i don't think you would have done anything.

scum points copper. i don't know why town would lie about this.

I missed this part of the gem.

How am I covering it up when I just said I did not notice I had forgotten to write my thoughts on him until I had already posted? What is the benefit in me saying I noticed after posting as scum?

You have a scum read on Lowell and are the only one that seems interested in that slot so I'd certainly expect you to pay attention (as you have) if that read is real.

[copper223]

I like zakk's 2553 a lot, especially for calling out copper's ridiculous "vote analysis" as pure fluff.

Ok you can hang.

[copper223]

@PM and Lowell
Are you guys serious? What is the point of tracking votes implies you claim that votes are NAI, is that what you are saying?

The purpose of tracking votes is to see who is joining which pushes at what time, how often they are voting for the wrong alignment, how often they and other players agree with each other and are on the same wagon

and

if there are game connections that explain why that is happening (I expect Titus/Ircher to vote the same players, they are either buddies committed to stick to each other or a little town block, I do not expect players that haven't interacted with each other to do the same and if they do that is suspicious).

For town: if you just look at the table it's not going to help you, take your scum reads, go check what they are doing and who is doing the same thing and see if there are patterns of the overall strategy behind what scum is doing.

Yesterday scum had 3 nice town wagons, they were spoiled for choice, my best guess under those conditions is they didn't need to push any of the wagons in particular or were already behind a read (like me or Ircher) and just had to find a reason to hop onto one or the other, that's why I am looking at who used Titus as an excuse to join later or for the hipster scum(s) on the KTS wagon (and why I thought Anen might be the left-over on TBG).

@Egg
I decided to do to ETL what ETL does to others, randomly insult her and her game-play and see what would come of it, as you already mentioned your explanation doesn't make sense.

[copper223]

??? Where was this from?

That was from being unappreciated, too many players here are writing random snippets without explanation or solely pushing their scum reads without discussion nor compromise with what others are saying and the results are there to be seen.

Ask Liger to confirm what was written in the PT if you don't believe me.

[copper223]

...Kop -was- missing. What's your reason behind that, copper?

That was a troll slot and now a lurker that replaced at deadline, analysis is pointless at the moment.

[copper223]

btw if this is multiball 90% sure there's a representative of every scum team in the hood, so we should be looking for scum in the hood, not the scum in the hood.

Really? We haven't lynch one scum player yet but you are worried about what would happen if one scum is lynched in the hood and how there could be more if this is multiball (giving it a 90% in that case no less)?

Setting up post Magna flip is what this likely is, otherwise this is so unbelievably shit (to use your jargon) that Anen's case on you looks like a excerpt from Plato.

[copper223]

copper

expedience

projectmatt

aneninen

titus

This was me giving you guys my list of people willing to lynch today btw.

(This quote has been modified; it was Nosferatu's list using Nahdia's post)

Funny how this is Nahdia's list, plus the player that wanted Nahdia vigged.

[copper223]

Nos is approaching Magna status of likelyhood of being scum, PM is also likely scum but the likely-hood is quite a bit lower.

[copper223]

@Egg
Are you going to post game relevant content soon? I don't care about the game state on page 70, I want your opinions on the now.

[copper223]

Egg could also just be derping on Ircher (I know I have done similar things with scummy looking newer town, and assuming he isn't just our Don Quixote fighting against dumb town).

[copper223]

I'm not presuming multiball.

But you sure are posting about it and what would be "likely" in such cases instead of pushing your scum-reads, another entertaining mind exercise?

The lack of a wagon on you is a product of you being nr2 or nr3 scum on those that want your scalp (Anen literally just moved from you to PM after his latest posts), your narrative is ridiculous.

And yes, working in tandem and buddying up with someone you have otherwise had little dialogue with is suspicious, plus those are not similar reads, they are the same plus expe (who not only wanted Nahdia vigged, he also rightfully didn't like your attitude during the Persi wagon one bit).

@Nahdia
Lol, true you did buss PM and Magna but your'e still scum, lynched or vigged idc.

[copper223]

Titus and Kop were added within the last hour man

Yep, Titus's line of questioning is getting dangerous.

@Kop
Cythefly's logic is flawed but it's a level 0 newbie argument: player a) is vocal and gets his lynch, player a) stays alive, ergo player a) is scum or was protected, while bad theory-wise as you have all mentioned I fail to see why it's scummy, unless you go back to my point that he may be touting the party (i.e. scum) line about framing Titus in a very clumsy manner, but that would require first that we know Titus is being framed so there are much more likely scum candidates out there like the player you are currently interacting with.

[copper223]

I mean that Nos being scum doesn't require you to assume Titus is town and scum decided to leave her alive to draw heat because of her incorrect reads yesterday, you just need to read Nos's posts and think of the most likely motivation behind them.

[copper223]

His vote analysis posting as others have pointed out isn’t analysis but junk.

Change "others" with teammates, that is a collection of the votes that have been made this game, like I asked lowell and PM, are you claiming voting is not alignment indicative?

Now my interpretation may be junk, although since you're all so firm in the belief that it's junk when you supposedly wouldn't know anything about it as town it's probably spot on.

[copper223]

No, it's junk because the premise itself is faulty and garbage. Garbage in, garbage out. Feel free to keep lobbing empty assertions to support your junk but that in a nutshell is the story.

The premise is that voting patterns are alignment indicative (relevant for those that did not get a scum PM).

[copper223]

Yeah … this is bad. The two posts I made in the QT took almost a full hour due to my connection. Which clearly I pointed out in the thread. Why exactly did you expect an in-depth questioning when I couldn’t even get the ISO feature to work?

That said – let’s talk about Brawl and Persival re: a Counterwagon – why do you not think it possible for scum to call a wagon not on themselves bad again? Because I think someone as experienced as you shouldn’t be so rigid in assessing that as not a possibility. By the time Brawl commented on Pers (1734) clearly Pers was the dominant wagon. And multiple people had been calling down the Brawl wagon pretty vigorously for awhile. Very little change there was going to be enough momentum to lynch Brawl Day 1. Perfect time for scumBrawl to look for Town credit by calling the Pers wagon bad.

Glad you state that ETL was a scum shot. Probably has to do with 2137, huh?

Is it possible that looking out of my window I will see a flying unicorn? Yes, is it likely, no. Your reads did not take into consideration the flip on Persi and that's what I expect "an experienced player" to do.

TBG was running the serious risk of getting lynched, at that point all the town-cred in the world is not going to do you any good after your flip is shown and there is scum written on it, so deciding to cock-block the alternative wagon is an unlikely move and for you to have that read you should have presumably some reason as to why he went that route, but you apparently did not even consider it worth thinking about.

I also already explained the ETL read in the PT, Persivul was certain ETL would not misread him like she did, and when I told her I'd policy her for being bad she replied that I was in no position to evaluate her play (if she was being literal there it might have meant she knew I was town and I didn't know what I was talking about since I was judging her town game when she was tooling me as scum); that line of thought shows the opposite of what you did by the way, i.e. try and factor in the new information coming from the flop (cause you know, we have different PM's after all).

I also said you had connection problems and made it clear that shouldn't be held against you, you failing to engage us in conversation other than replying to what we asked of you however is still scummy, particularly when you claimed to be vetting the PT yesterday, as it only required you to be able to post (which you demonstrably were able to).

[copper223]

Ircher – Bad Town per his analysis
Nos -
Seth – oops Kop is nowhere to be found in his “analysis”
Ircher - Bad Town per his analysis
Brawl - Town
Magna
Anen – “town getting pushed by scum”
Brawl - Town
Pers - Town
Kill – Town

It's not even funny how crappy the comparison is, you are even putting blanks instead of scum on the players I am scum reading , are you trying to redefine the definition of misrep? You on the other hand have only voted confirmed town or members of the PT that aren't yourself (all of whom I am fairly certain are also town).

[copper223]

My top scumreads are Shotty (Prob biased, but quite obvious why), Kop/Seth (I outlined why, and while Seth may have been a troll, Kop wasn't much better, so my read stands), and Copper (I'm inclined to townread Magna, Liger is ok, it would be strange imo if there wasn't a scum in the neighborhood, but that's setup WIFOM, and the "roleplay" between Seth/Copper felt more SvS than anything else -- Too artificial and forced)

Our reads are pretty well aligned. I'll make you a deal. I'll revisit Kop / Seth and if I don't see any reason to object I'll align my vote with yours with the goal of making sure whatever the largest wagon on our scum suspects (Copper / Shotty / Kop) has both our votes.

Make sense to you?

If this is multiball (and I mean 2 different scum-teams), this is them shaking hands.

@Kop
If you're town what you should be interested in is why your wagon didn't pick up yesterday when it was much more legitimate (Ircher for instance first pounced on the SK claim, then later called Seth town, and now has you as my teammate apparently).

VOTE: PM

[copper223]

@Egg
What do you think of the connection between Kop's slot and I that Ircher brought up?

[copper223]

Seth / Kop ISO –

First thing that strikes me is 170 where Seth RVS’s Cooper. It’s common enough of a tendancy here on site and it fits well with my Copper scum read.

Also the whole Copper / Seth back and forth about “Who is your partner” looks fairly forced. Especially given that said reaction test yielded nothing and took me awhile to draw out that result from Copper.

I'll come back to this.

[copper223]

That's likely a scum role tbh.

What are you talking about, the claim may be fake, it certainly seemed a bit premature and that's the kind of role you don't want to claim if you don't have to, but the role itself is more often pro town if anything.

[copper223]

The fact it's 2-Shot further suggests its a scum commuter.

Why?

[copper223]

It's an untargetable that can't perform any other action while being in said state.

[copper223]

Kop (6) - Expedience, Lowell, Ircher, MagnaOfIllusion, Nosferatu, Aneninen

Likely scum pushed wagon

projectmatt (2) - cytheflyguy, copper223

Likely reason why the Kop wagon picked up steam now and not yesterday when it made a bunch more sense.

Titus (2) - zakk, drmyshottyizsik
zakk (2) - Titus, Shaziro

Likely town screwing up and cross OMGUSING each other.

copper223 (1) - Nahdia
Aneninen (1) - projectmatt

Likely scum waiting to see where the wind blows before moving from old wagons.

Not voting (1) - Egg

this is here to signal wtf are you doing.

Try to remember this snapshot of the game-state if I flip and/or if the players I am scum reading start flipping as expected.

[copper223]

@Ircher
This is town copper trying to decide how ignorant you can be without doing so on purpose.

Why is x-shot commuter more likely to be scum?

@Lowell
Any other action, and that's why the role was designed as pro town, sometimes when you need a balancer for strongarms.

I have noticed a trend lately about using seemingly pro town roles for scum on the forum to screw with players trying to setup brake, I'll give Ircher that, i.e. I don't think he is lying about meeting the scum variety more often in his latest games (but I'm still going to check), can't say the same though.

[copper223]

Thanks, think I've got it. 2x unNKable, normally a town role but not necessarily, cop believes it and irch doesn't.

I am not a fan of the claim either (mainly because as town it's a bad move).

What makes him more likely town are some of the players on his wagon and the fact it popped up now, when PM was the alternative (and lo and behold who made that wagon viable, why it's MagnaScum in collaboration with TerritownIrcher (?) and Nosferatu who never pushes her scum reads but this one is ok), instead of yesterday when Seth was busy shitposting left right and center.

@Ircher

Cuz scum commuters are way more powerful than town commuters

Whereas an unkillable innocent child is not a game breaking town role? Commuters are always x-shot or have some other limitations like even/odd-night regardless of alignment.

[copper223]

I was thinking even/odd more likely for town. Yes, full commuters are too powerful, but in a large, 2-Shot is much weaker than Even/Odd or Non-Consecutive modifiers.

Given we know nothing of the setup that's at best a very very wild guess (also makes me wonder if you know more about the setup than I do).

Maybe I'm being stubborn, but my point is more that Kop shouldn't just claim whatever role and the wagon immediately disappears. The wagon wasn't even L-1 yet (as far as I remember).

This is a fair point and I mentioned it as well, if you were scum reading kop before this is no reason to change your mind.

The role could just as easily be scum as town (<-- That statement is 100% factual) and I feel scum would have had more incentive to claim then than town.

Depends how far down the wifom hole you want to go.

[copper223]

That's a strong statement. Who on the wagon do you think is scum? I believe that you scumread Magna, but who else in order for it to be a "scum-pushed wagon"? What are your thoughts on Anen?

Nosferatu for starters, that read should be pretty obvious if you've been reading me.

I'm unsure about Ircher as well and entertained some suspicion about Lowell after talking to zakk but he does seem pretty town in his latest catch-up.

I did not particularly like Aneninen's latest (too many places where he was fence sitting) and the Kop vote switch when you hadn't done anything for him to change the focus, but the way I am reading the game makes him very likely town here and he did have Kop as possible scum before switching.