Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[distad]

I think anyone town would understand what I am doing when I posted that "gem"...interesting your perspective on this game pervents that...

my vote on you is a good one.

Anyone town would think that you are setting up a WIFOM argument if neither of you are killed tonight. That's what I think.

In a small game, a false claim (like yours appears to be) is gold if you can sell it to the town.

Straight from the horse's mouth...

[distad]

I was discussing this game with a friend from work who plays Diplomacy. We came up with an analogy:

When you aerate your lawn, you dig up those little plugs that look like duck poop. Anyone looking at your lawn, and not wanting to touch duck poop, wouldn't really know if you had duck poop on your lawn, or had aerated. A logical person would assume one of the 2 situations though.

Here's the problem at mafiascum: (continuing the analogy). If my neighbor told you that he had seen me aerating my lawn, mafiascum players would then conclude that I USED to have duckpoop on my lawn, and had aerated my lawn to cover up the fact that I had duckpoop on it by mixing in the little dirt plugs.

Not conclude. Consider. It would be considered as a possibility until the logical conclusion came together.

Distad, you are following the same logic. You are overthinking my claim and unclaim. I didn't unclaim because "Atticus caught me in a lie". I claimed to set a trap, and to advance the agenda I wanted advanced.

What trap? Where was that going? You pushed and pushed and pushed with repeated and colorful responses until you finally relented. And when you unclaimed, you said that you were reluctant to do so.

I also honestly thought I had claimed something crappy and would be a decent sacrifice to keep anyone real like a cop or the masons, safe. I unclaimed because I thought there were a few townies who could see the fallacies constructed on the foundation of my lie. I underestimated the reliance of players on this site on their beloved acronyms, like LAL.

It's not just that. I've already discussed other reasons for my vote. This is, however, the most poignant.

YOU aren't voting me because you think I'm scum and always have. You saw me as one of the most town players BEFORE my claim. You believed my claim, so you must have continued to think of me as town.

BS. I claimed immediately the flaws in the claim and called you out on it in 869.

You weren't even all that sceptical of my claim later. No one really was; Atticus has been pushing against me for a while for flimsy reasons (he accused me of following others logic, shortly after which he admitted to reading less than half the game); pressure from Atticus was no reason to unclaim.

Again, I pushed immediately on not believing the claim and turned the focus to you.

I unclaimed because I overestimated the logical abilities of the town. I should have continued to play out my hand, and stuck with my original frustrated reaction during the non-lynch while CKD was still alive, which by the way, continued on PAST the original deadline of Oct 3. No one was going anywhere, despite the fact that a no lynch put us FURTHER behind than a mislynch. Dead doc, remember?

Tha mafia have done a masterful job of paralyzing this town into fruitless inaction. You either ARE mafia (I still think unlikely, if we only have 1 mafia) or are being their willing victim. You are now getting caught up in LAL nonsense instead of looking out for what is best for the town.

I am NOT the best lynch today. There is NO reason for me to have unclaimed beyond another misguided attempt to get the town to see the light. The RIGHT play was to lynch a mason, even if the masses had to be duped into doing it. The right play is NEVER to place unquestioning trust in someone who claims, which is what everyone did with the mason claim, my claim, and all the claims that have followed. If I had been scum, there would be NOTHING to be gained for me to unclaim and subject myself to this barrage of illogic.

Except for massive misdirection...

Its also ridiculous to propose that as a mafia member, I benefitted from lynching a mason. If I had been mafia, I would KNOW the masons weren't part of my mafia and gain NOTHING by having them verified publically.

It's not about verifying them. You certainly could not NK one of them, because it would leave the other as 100% confirmed town. By creating a lynch opportunity, you were able to NK the other leaving no one as confirmed.

The mafia know who ALL of their enemies are, Distad. They don't need anything verified.

I posted an excellent case against SP earlier today,

And I said that I liked the argument. My eyes are stuck on you right now, though.

and he vanished like Roadrunner and hasn't responded. The case for Gorgon is strong and fits any number of what if scenarios.

But I don't see him as the best play. There are a lot of what-if scenarios that work for him, but these are based on what people are claiming as actions/results of someone else. Yours is based on what you claimed of yourself.

They are the best 2 places for a townie to place their vote. BM, heH and yes, you Distad, are as suspect as me, whether or not I am believed to be town. Neither is a good vote today, because of unsurety. A vote on any of those 3 would be anti town. By the same rationale, your vote on me is....anti-town, because it exposes the town to lynching a town member.

[Sonicpulsar]

I posted an excellent case against SP earlier today, and he vanished like Roadrunner and hasn't responded. The case for Gorgon is strong and fits any number of what if scenarios.

Wow. Do I come across as an asshole? I've been BUSY the rest of today. I was posting this morning during the lab I teach. If you want, I can give you a play by play of why I've been busy from my last post until now. In fact, I may just end EVERY single effin post with when I think my next post will be just so people like you can't say shit. I'll be sure to start every post that doesn't fit the timeline I set by apologizing for posting when I said I wouldn't.

I am NOT the best lynch today. There is NO reason for me to have unclaimed beyond another misguided attempt to get the town to see the light. The RIGHT play was to lynch a mason, even if the masses had to be duped into doing it. The right play is NEVER to place unquestioning trust in someone who claims, which is what everyone did with the mason claim, my claim, and all the claims that have followed. If I had been scum, there would be NOTHING to be gained for me to unclaim and subject myself to this barrage of illogic. Its also ridiculous to propose that as a mafia member, I benefitted from lynching a mason. If I had been mafia, I would KNOW the masons weren't part of my mafia and gain NOTHING by having them verified publically. The mafia know who ALL of their enemies are, Distad. They don't need anything verified.

Do you not see the WIFOM (omg, I used an acronym) you set up when you say things like that? I can explain it to you if you need me to, just let me know.

Moving on to new stuff. I found post 958 by HeH very interesting. It brought up a few points I hadn't really considered, so let me do it now.

Relaxing my assumption that Gorgon is a town RBer and instead a scum RBer (there's still significant doubt in my mind), I hadn't fully considered the idea that Chronx could be the godfather. It'd make sense that the scum with investigation impunity (always appears innocent) would be the one to false claim something. On the off chance he'd be investigated, he'd have an alibi if you will.

What does this imply? Well, I have to believe HeH is the cop and his two investigations must be legit (BM and Distad are town). Which leaves Atticus as the third scum.

Basically, I'm agreeing with HeH on his scenario 1.

With my earlier posts (and assumptions), I felt it most likely that Chronx, Atticus and either Distad or BM were the 3 scum. The next most likely case in my opinion is the one just illustrated, which has Gorgon, Chronx and Atticus as scum again.

Atticus and Chronx are the two people who appear on both of my lists.

I'm gonna

FOS: Atticus

and

FOS: Chronx

I'll decide closer to deadline who I will vote for.

[Sonicpulsar]

Oh, and for Chronx, I'll probably check back in later tonight (around 4 hours from now). I'm not entirely sure I'll post unless something interesting or thought provoking comes along. I'll most likely make a post tomorrow morning containing my vote. This should happen around 11-12 CST.

[ChronX]

Yes, thanks for the update. Care to respond to the case I made against you?

Thank you for showing me politely and not blowing up at my mistake.

[Sonicpulsar]

As usual, my responses will be in bold.

Analysis of SP, read in isolation except where I need to find something he is responding to, post numbers refer to his posts in isolation:

Early game: metagame opinions expressed that replacements are most often vanillas. Lurkers are most often scum or power roles. Confesses to lurking ("I lurked thru most of the first part of this game (first 7 pages or so) " post 8. Says he is "trying to provide content" (post 12). FoS Gorgon and HeH, or maybe FoS either Gorgon OR HeH, there are several posts where the only thing which is clear is that its not even clear to him. He expresses suspicion of Distad, over Gorgon. He votes with the easy wagons on Pigg and D3sisted. Why? "Overall, I think it's too late to start a new wagon on someone else with the little discussion that would follow" post 18

I stand by that assessment. We were close to the deadline if I recall (<24 hours) and I honestly didn't think enough discussion would occur to warrant a new lynch AND get as much useful information out of it.

Post 20. In its entirety:

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

I'll let that one speak for itself.

Nice analysis, keep up the good work.

Several posts go by where he doesn't see that case on Gorgon (anymore?). HeH attacks him for wishywashy ness, which is supportable. He makes long posts that suspect everybody, but ever only voted the lurker wagons (looking forward, we see a trend...Atticus is scum for lurking). In an effort seemingly to not appear wishywashy anymore, he OMGUS votes HeH. Was buying the mason claims.

I don't know how to respond to this. I don't feel I've been wishy washy at all. I see wishy washy as being more changing my mind all the time. I also don't feel I have tunnel vision. I like to think I'm an appropriate balance of the two. I'm willing to take in new information and see how it applies to my earlier analyses. Can you more directly state where I've been wishy washy and on what subject? I ask again, can you point to a certain time when my thoughts on a particular issue were up in the air for too long or where I kept bouncing back and forth?

Post 32, partially quoted:

I think we should continue discussion for a few more hours before we ask anyone to claim. I'd actually lean toward HeH claiming at this point and not just because I'm voting for him.

As for Atticus, I guess I missed him in my analysis from post 556. I'm actually surprised no one commented on this fact and/or jumped all over me for it, despite it being an honest mistake. Basically, I don't get a scum vibe from him. He's not posting but I don't get the sense of scumminess from his lurking.

Softly fishes for a role claim from HeH. DOESN'T think Atticus is scummy for his lurking.

No, at the time, I didn't think Atticus was scummy for his lurking. The few posts he had made didn't give me a scum vibe. The fact that it has continued coupled with his latest few posts have given me a much stronger scum vibe. As for the fishing, I didn't want anyone to start claiming just yet, but if/when we did, I wanted HeH to claim first and not because I was voting for him. Should I start explaining myself more in all of my posts? I feel like I do a good job of it. I seldom see my posts quoted except for single person analyses of my entire play. I've always assumed this was because I cover my bases well. Am I just making contentless posts that aren't worth quoting or debating?

Play today: another possible breadcrumb post (didn't target BM ON NIGHT 2). I still think SP was playing this whole game setting himself up for a cop claim, but had to back off when all the role claims came out of the woodwork recently.

Sweet Enola Gay, I thought I covered this already...twice. The fact that I unintentionally left my response ambiguous and IMMEDIATELY realized it and made a EBWOP to change it made me look like I was breadcrumbing. What else was I supposed to do once I realized I'm accidentally been ambiguous?

States repeatedly in all his analyses that he thinks Atticus is scum because its "Convenient".

It's not the only reason. Have I pushed for a effin Atticus lynch? Negative. Have I abused my assumption? I don't think so, else I would have pushed for it by now.

Conclusions: I agree with HeH's assertion a while ago that SP has been wishywashy. I detect breadcrumbing by the way he says power roles and scum lurk and proceeds to admit to lurking

I admitted to lurking...once...and it wasn't on purpose unless you count the first 7 pages of this thread which were effin meta game shit anyways, but I've become a broken record with some of this.

, and also in the way he answered about the targetting of BM. Has sounded a lot of the same notes as Gorgon along the way.

Um.....where?

Conclusion: Likely scum.

[Battle Mage]

I can still SP acting peculiar. I think we might be safest with a

Vote: SonicPulsar

today. I'll be on before deadline if this needs changing btw.

[theopor_COD]

Vote-count with some 9 hours to deadline. Deadline is 9pm my time, I should be around but no votes after then will count, I'm off up the pub this afternoon to watch the football so may be a little worse for wear - but I will check in sometime.

Gorgon 2 - Chronx, Hang em High
Sonicpulsar 1 - BM
Chronx 1 - Distad

Not voting - Atticus, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar.

[Gorgon]

I'm really feeling the pressure now. I have to vote someone, but this day has been so messed up, IMO, that I fear that coming to a reasonable decision will be hard.

Only NOW, hours before the deadline, are we discussing things like the mason lynch yesterday ... just as I feared, the damned stalling at the beginning of the day crippled all discussion on anything else. Scum or not, I blame ChronX solely for this now.

I absolutely disagree with ChronX's BS that a scum would gain nothing from lynching a mason ... scum KNOWS that someone who says he's a mason is a mason, and if he can get one lynched and NK the other, why the hell not? He's also suggesting that the rest of us have been placing absolute trust on all the claims; that's just plain wrong. Also, if this is the case, why would we trust his withdrawal of his claim? He's just too damned WIFOM-y at the moment ... "If I were scum, I wouldn't benefit from such-and-such"; crap logic IMO. Although I do admit that the thought that yes, scum-ChronX would indeed probably lose more than he gains from withdrawing his claim still lingers in my mind ... but then again, look how it's working. ChronX has one vote on him and he doesn't seem to be such a likely lynch candidate after all. ChronX's WIFOM seems crippling.

I don't know BM means when he says that SP is acting peculiar; yet again I feel that he doesn't explain his thoughts enough. Atticus is MIA; at least SP is here, apparently trying to analyze the situation ...

However, BM is pretty much confirmed town in my eyes, and a competent, experienced player, so trusting his gut judgement on this one is tempting.

I will wait for a bit and see how things develop, and then place my vote on either ChronX, Atticus, or SP ... probably SP if not ChronX, now that BM has voted for SP ... call it scummy to follow him like that, but like I said; I trust him now, and need all the help I can get.

P.S. I really, really hope that Atticus shows up soon ... that guy should have gotten himself replaced ages ago.

[Gorgon]

EBWOP: With regards to ChronX's rhetoric about not trusting claims, I meant to say something like: "Also, if we're to not trust claims, why would we trust his withdrawal of his claim?" ... something got messed up in my head while I was writing that.

[Hang 'em High]

Obviously I'm convinced Gorgon is the right choice today for reasons outlined previously. If it's necessary to avoid a no lynch I would be willing switch my vote to ChronX. I think there's a good chance he is scum and his lynch has an added benefit. If he turns up to be a plain Goon then we can safely assume Battle Mage is the Godfather. BM says he investigated ChronX and got an innocent. This wouldn't be true if ChronX was a regular Goon (as opposed to the GF). If BM was lying about his investigation on Gorgon I would assume he is scum and since I've gotten an innocent investigation on BM it would have to make him the GFer. I think there's a good chance either SP or Atticus is scum, but in my mind it's a coin flip between the two of them so I don't think it's wise to lynch either yet when it could cost us the game.

[theopor_COD]

[1] Each day you may try to lynch somebody. Each lynch there will be a seven day deadline. If during that day a majority is reached, then they will hang. If however it comes to deadline and no majority has been met, it will require a majority of a majority for a player to hang, otherwise there will be no lynch.

Just a reminder

I'm off to sink a few beers and watch England hopefully not lose to Russia.

[distad]

I'm looking forward to this... drunken posting by the mod!

Awww... it has GOT to happen!

[Hang 'em High]

We've got just under 4 hours left and we need 3 votes on someone to avoid a no lynch. Right now nobody is there. If we no lynch we probably lose so we've got to make a decision. In an effort to reach consensus, can everybody please list who they are willing to vote for? For me that's Gorgon first and then ChronX.

[distad]

I can still SP acting peculiar. I think we might be safest with a

Vote: SonicPulsar

today. I'll be on before deadline if this needs changing btw.

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he is not scum and we'd lose.

HeH- I'm on ChronX, with Gorgon as my second choice.

[Sonicpulsar]

I can still SP acting peculiar. I think we might be safest with a

Vote: SonicPulsar

today. I'll be on before deadline if this needs changing btw.

Care to elaborate? I think there's a fair consensus that most people think either I or Atticus are scum. The fact that he's lurked most of this day makes me question how you can be so sure of me.

I think there's a good chance either SP or Atticus is scum, but in my mind it's a coin flip between the two of them so I don't think it's wise to lynch either yet when it could cost us the game.

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he (Sonicpulasr) is not scum and we'd lose.

Moving on, I agree with Distad. I don't think an Atticus lynch could or should happen. Chronx is next on my list as most likely scum.

Vote: Chronx

Given the various scenarios I have come up with and others have, I think he's our best bet. I still think it unlikely (although possible) that Gorgon is a mafia roleblocker. In other words, I think the chances of Chronx turning up scum is greater than Gorgon.

[Sonicpulsar]

I fail at quotes. I accidentally left quote tags from BM on that. Should have just been Distad, as in:

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he (Sonicpulsar) is not scum and we'd lose.

[Battle Mage]

I can still SP acting peculiar. I think we might be safest with a

Vote: SonicPulsar

today. I'll be on before deadline if this needs changing btw.

Care to elaborate? I think there's a fair consensus that most people think either I or Atticus are scum. The fact that he's lurked most of this day makes me question how you can be so sure of me.

I think there's a good chance either SP or Atticus is scum, but in my mind it's a coin flip between the two of them so I don't think it's wise to lynch either yet when it could cost us the game.

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he (Sonicpulasr) is not scum and we'd lose.

Moving on, I agree with Distad.

I don't think an Atticus lynch could or should happen.

Chronx is next on my list as most likely scum.

Vote: Chronx

Given the various scenarios I have come up with and others have, I think he's our best bet. I still think it unlikely (although possible) that Gorgon is a mafia roleblocker. In other words, I think the chances of Chronx turning up scum is greater than Gorgon.

Wow, backtracking.

HoS: SP

Unvote, Vote: Chronx

I've had a think, and this seems to be the safest policy. At least it ensures that we get a lynch anyway.

BM

[ChronX]

Did anyone PM Gorgon so he can "accidentally" hammer now?

When I come up town, I will be unsurprised to learn mafia is SP, Gorgon and BM. I still think Distad has his head up his butt not that he is mafia.

I look forward to the after action reports so we can all argue over whether my play or CKD's was worse as town. I'm sure I'll be a popular candidate, and I'm sure I'll continue to maintain my position that its not my fault that people got trapped in acronyms rather than seeing the truth.

[Gorgon]

ChronX it is ...

Vote: ChronX

[ChronX]

LMAO....crossposted.

I'm lynched. I'm vanilla town. I'll have to sneak my laptop into my management meeting to see if game is over or not.

[Battle Mage]

LMAO....crossposted.

I'm lynched. I'm vanilla town. I'll have to sneak my laptop into my management meeting to see if game is over or not.

shit, you'd better be kidding me.

In any case, the game isn't QUITE over yet. We still have a slim chance of pulling things back during the night, as long as we stop the scum from killing somehow.

[distad]

Well, we need Gorgon to RB the NKer and we need you to vig scum. If we can do that, we get another day... of course, assuming that ChronX is town. I believe that only that combination will get it done. Of course, if Gorgon is scum, it's lost.

[Gorgon]

Well, we need Gorgon to RB the NKer and we need you to vig scum. If we can do that, we get another day... of course, assuming that ChronX is town. I believe that only that combination will get it done. Of course, if Gorgon is scum, it's lost.

Yeah, I think both would need to be accomplished in order to win; a 3-3 split is victory for the scum, right? Luckily I pretty much know BM is town. Too bad he already used up his doc protection.

I'm still convinced ChronX was the right choice, though.

[Battle Mage]

i hope so. I actually really care about winning this game atm. :p