Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[theopor_COD]

Just saying . . sign up for my large game, it's getting lonely in the queue.

[Hang 'em High]

Oh yeah, and that HeH is hypocritical for not voting Gorgon when his analysis points solely in that direction.

That is asinine. I'm not voting for Gorgon because we're in LYLO and if I'm wrong we could lose. Due to the severity of voting incorrectly, I'm not ready to commit to anyone just yet. He's my #1 candidate at the moment and there's a good chance I'll vote for him. But I want to think everything through first so I don't give the scum a chance to quicklynch. How is that hypocritical?

One other note. I've been assuming there is a Godfather in the game. If there is not, then this is easy. We've got 5 dead townies. I make 6 and I've got an innocent on BM and distad, which makes 8. BM has an innocent on ChronX, which makes 9 townies. That leaves Gorgon, Atticus and Sonicpulsar as the Scum. However, I don't think that is the case. That arrangement would give us 5 power roles -- Cop, Doc, 2 Masons and JoAT -- versus scum with only 1 power role -- Roleblocker. That seems too unbalanced in favor of the town, even for a speed game. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely we have a Godfather in the game.

[ChronX]

Here at mafiascum, how does the Godfather role work vis a vis the nightkill? Does the GF HAVE to do the killing/send in the NK? Can a goon do it? In other words, if the GF is roleblocked, can the mafia have had the option of sending someone else to do the killing, thus averting the block? Elsewhere, I have played where the godfather type role "handed out" assignments to any goons with powers...which is part of the reason I have tied together BM and Gorgon so closely. Part of my thinking about this was that when they heard that I had (allegedly) seen SOMEONE go to BM's house, they had paniced and came up with a reason for Goon Gorgon to have gone there other than getting Goon instructions. But maybe I'm projecting, I've never had the role or even been in a game with a GF here.

[Sonicpulsar]

In light of recent revelations, I'll make another person by person analysis.

To start off, I'm a bit dumbfounded by Chronx's play. I legitimately thought he was telling the truth and HeH was probably lying. I no longer think this is the case. I'm usually one of the first to say LAL but in this case, I'm just not sure.

Thus, this leads to whether or not I believe HeH's claim. I do. This implies that his investigations are legit, which should clear BM and/or Distad unless one is a godfather or perhaps HeH is an insane or naive cop. All are unlikely, but one of them has to be true. Why? Under the assumption that there are 3 mafia, if Chronx, HeH, Distad and BM are all innocent, that'd leave me as guilty.

To further complicate things, I honestly believe Gorgon's claim of roleblocker. While we're on that, I'm finding it unlikely that the scum got BOTH a Godfather AND a mafia roleblocker. I'm far more inclined to believe there's a godfather. In fact, I'm going to make this a major assumption and build most of my analysis on this fact. Anyways, on with the analysis.

I'm forced to figure out which of the four are most likely scum. It's easiest to start with figuring out how many of those 4 must scum.

Assumptions I'm assuming are correct and not changeable:

Sonicpulsar - Vanilla townie
Gorgon - Town Roleblocker
Atticus - Scum

Thus, I'm left with determining which of the remaining 4 are linked together.

Scenario 1:
HeH - Sane town cop. Leads to:

BM/Distad - One is godfather, the other townie.
Chronx - Scum.

Conclusion: Likely.

Scenario 2:
HeH - Lying scum. Leads to:

BM - Townie
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Townie

Well, I'm more likely to believe BM's role claim if HeH is lying. There being no investigative role seems highly unlikely. Also, I'd guess HeH was trying to clear Distad by claiming him innocent.

Conclusion: Unlikely. I just don't see HeH lying about being the cop.

Scenario 3:
HeH - Insane/naive Cop

BM - Scum
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Town

This one frustrates me a bit because it seems unlikely, but it'd clear up a few issues I'm having with Scenario 1. Namely, I'm undecided on BM and Distad.

Conclusion: Unlikely. But perhaps more likely than Scenario 2.

Given my initial assumptions, is there anything wrong with my 3 scenarios? Am I missing anything? This day really is hurting my head. So many thing imply so much.

For those paying attention, I've had this window open for ~7.5 hours. It's taken me a while to get here with tons of distractions but it's here nonetheless.

[Hang 'em High]

Thanks for posting this, SP -- solid contribution. Now I'm going to see if I agree with you or not. My comments are in bold.

In light of recent revelations, I'll make another person by person analysis.

To start off, I'm a bit dumbfounded by Chronx's play.

Me, too.

I legitimately thought he was telling the truth and HeH was probably lying. I no longer think this is the case. I'm usually one of the first to say LAL but in this case, I'm just not sure.

Thus, this leads to whether or not I believe HeH's claim. I do. This implies that his investigations are legit, which should clear BM and/or Distad unless one is a godfather or perhaps HeH is an insane or naive cop. All are unlikely, but one of them has to be true. Why? Under the assumption that there are 3 mafia, if Chronx, HeH, Distad and BM are all innocent, that'd leave me as guilty.

To further complicate things, I honestly believe Gorgon's claim of roleblocker.

I believe his claim as well.

While we're on that, I'm finding it unlikely that the scum got BOTH a Godfather AND a mafia roleblocker.

This I don't agree with. If we had a Doc, Cop, 2 Masons and a JoAT, I can see the scum having a GF and a RB. Do you think such a setup would be balanced? I think this is a really key point so I'd really like your feedback. I think it's clear Gorgon is a RB but the questions remains whether he's protown or scum.

I'm far more inclined to believe there's a godfather. In fact, I'm going to make this a major assumption and build most of my analysis on this fact. Anyways, on with the analysis.

I'm forced to figure out which of the four are most likely scum. It's easiest to start with figuring out how many of those 4 must scum.

Assumptions I'm assuming are correct and not changeable:

Sonicpulsar - Vanilla townie
Gorgon - Town Roleblocker

Obviously I disagree, but I'll go with it for now.

Atticus - Scum

Why is this a given?

Thus, I'm left with determining which of the remaining 4 are linked together.

Scenario 1:
HeH - Sane town cop. Leads to:

BM/Distad - One is godfather, the other townie.

If distad is the GF that means BM is town (since I investigated both and they came back innocent). If BM is town then ChronX can't be regular scum since BM investigated ChronX and he came back innocent. Therefore, if distad is the GF then ChronX can't be regular scum. It is possible for ChronX to be regular scum if BM is the GF, since we then wouldn't believe BM's investigation.

Chronx - Scum.

Conclusion: Likely.

This would give the town the following roles: Doc, Cop, 2 Masons, RB and 4 Vanillas. The scum would have GF and 2 Goons. In my opinion this seems unbalanced in favor of the town. Thoughts?

Scenario 2:
HeH - Lying scum. Leads to:

BM - Townie
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Townie

Well, I'm more likely to believe BM's role claim if HeH is lying. There being no investigative role seems highly unlikely. Also, I'd guess HeH was trying to clear Distad by claiming him innocent.

Conclusion: Unlikely. I just don't see HeH lying about being the cop.

Scenario 3:
HeH - Insane/naive Cop

BM - Scum
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Town

This one frustrates me a bit because it seems unlikely, but it'd clear up a few issues I'm having with Scenario 1. Namely, I'm undecided on BM and Distad.

If I'm naive we can't read anything about my investigations since everybody would come back innocent regardless of alignment. If I'm insane then both BM and distad are scum. I don't think we'd know ChronX's alignment in that case. However, I'm going to discount the possibility I'm insane or naive based on this quote from the Wiki: "All variant sanities are uncommon in Mini Games or other situations with just one Cop in the game."

Conclusion: Unlikely. But perhaps more likely than Scenario 2.

Given my initial assumptions, is there anything wrong with my 3 scenarios? Am I missing anything? This day really is hurting my head. So many thing imply so much.

For those paying attention, I've had this window open for ~7.5 hours. It's taken me a while to get here with tons of distractions but it's here nonetheless.

The more I look at this the more I can't envision a scenario where Gorgon is on our side. I believe he's the RB and having an RB on our side gives the town too many power roles and the scum too few. I'm going to look some more to see if I can find a scenario that fits Gorgon being on our side, but for now I'm going to

HoS: Gorgon

.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'll try to address most of what you said. In order to make it easier to read, I'll not quote my original post with your comments in it.

One of the first things you need to remember is that this is a speed game. That's inherently bad for the town. The mafia was allowed a N0 kill, that's bad for the town. These two things coupled together make me feel like it's unlikely the mafia got both a roleblocker and a GF. Based on that assumption and what we've seen (investigation wise), I'm thinking there's a GF. Moving on to the next point.

I'm assuming Atticus is scum based on his lurking and the fact that it actually makes my analysis easier to manage. It's an assumption I listed at the beginning that could very well be wrong but it narrows down the scenarios significantly.

You're right on my Scenario 1. If Distad is the GF and BM is town, that means Chronx has to be town, which isn't possible based on my assumptions. You've actually narrowed my Scenario 1 down to BM having to be the GF with Chronx as his scum buddy.

You may have answered your own question on believing the possibility of you being naive or insane. If the setup really is in favor of the town (with the mafia having 2 goons and a GF), a good way to balance it would be to throw off the only real investigative role (short of BM's one shot). I don't think it's the case but you've actually convinced me it's more likely that I originally thought.

Thus, now that's it been narrowed down, I'm forced to think the most likely scenario is that the scum are:

Atticus - Goon
BM - GF
Chronx - Goon

Something about that doesn't sit right with me. I've thought Distad was scum most of the game but his innocent result from HeH troubles me. I'm at a loss.

Anyone else care to chime in?

[ChronX]

I'm assuming Atticus is scum based on his lurking and the fact that it actually makes my analysis easier to manage.

You should probably meta Atticus. He has been behaving the way he did here in ALL his games, including to an extent the game he recently wrapped up modding. I am mad at him for lurking because he shouldn't have taken this game on as a replacement with the rest of the load he seems to have. I really don't see his absenteeism as a scumtell in this game; if we had more leeway, it might be valid to go after him as "anti-town" but to me, Atticus is low on the list of suspects. Again, part of the reason I'm mad at him is his few insights have been helpful.

The second half of the sentence is BAD, BAD, BAD. You are basically admitting to tunnelling. There are a lot of scenarios going around that don't necessitate Atticus being scum. Several of them DO necessitate you OR Atticus being scum. Anyone else looking at your analysis can easily substitute "SonicPulsar" for "Atticus" and reach the same conclusions. As I recall, there have been better cases than "lurking" made on you.

As an aside, there seems to be momentum building (including from our gracious mod who is starting a new game) that speed/deadlines are not inherently bad, but in fact encourages productive play much sooner than is the norm here at MS. I am not sure that speed is in and of itself hindrant to the town.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I'll never understand how a comparison of myself and Atticus could be made. I know I don't post a lot but when I do post, I make declaratives and take stances. It's hard to say you don't know what I think and where I stand on issues.

As you said, most people have been lumping Atticus and I together assuming one of us is the third scum because it makes their analysis easier. Without looking back, I don't think I've seen a single scenario where someone didn't say "SP/Atticus - one is scum". I took the logical step of assuming I'm not scum and thus Atticus has to be. But I didn't do it deceptively, I stated it up front.

And just as a side note, I never meant to breadcrumb anything. I basically said as much....without explicitly saying as much. I realized after my response that I left it somewhat ambiguous and didn't want it to bite me in the ass later. So I clarified by saying specifically I didn't target BM on that specific night. I didn't want to press the issue too hard because then it would really look like I was trying to overprotect myself. I tried to just let it drop.

[distad]

Okay. We're coming to a deadline in just over 24 hours.

Vote: ChronX

He's been at the top of my list and we have to get something started if we are going to make it to tomorrow.

[ChronX]

Analysis of SP, read in isolation except where I need to find something he is responding to, post numbers refer to his posts in isolation:

Early game: metagame opinions expressed that replacements are most often vanillas. Lurkers are most often scum or power roles. Confesses to lurking ("I lurked thru most of the first part of this game (first 7 pages or so) " post 8. Says he is "trying to provide content" (post 12). FoS Gorgon and HeH, or maybe FoS either Gorgon OR HeH, there are several posts where the only thing which is clear is that its not even clear to him. He expresses suspicion of Distad, over Gorgon. He votes with the easy wagons on Pigg and D3sisted. Why? "Overall, I think it's too late to start a new wagon on someone else with the little discussion that would follow" post 18

Post 20. In its entirety:

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

I'll let that one speak for itself.

Several posts go by where he doesn't see that case on Gorgon (anymore?). HeH attacks him for wishywashy ness, which is supportable. He makes long posts that suspect everybody, but ever only voted the lurker wagons (looking forward, we see a trend...Atticus is scum for lurking). In an effort seemingly to not appear wishywashy anymore, he OMGUS votes HeH. Was buying the mason claims.

Post 32, partially quoted:

I think we should continue discussion for a few more hours before we ask anyone to claim. I'd actually lean toward HeH claiming at this point and not just because I'm voting for him.

As for Atticus, I guess I missed him in my analysis from post 556. I'm actually surprised no one commented on this fact and/or jumped all over me for it, despite it being an honest mistake. Basically, I don't get a scum vibe from him. He's not posting but I don't get the sense of scumminess from his lurking.

Softly fishes for a role claim from HeH. DOESN'T think Atticus is scummy for his lurking.

Play today: another possible breadcrumb post (didn't target BM ON NIGHT 2). I still think SP was playing this whole game setting himself up for a cop claim, but had to back off when all the role claims came out of the woodwork recently.

States repeatedly in all his analyses that he thinks Atticus is scum because its "Convenient".


Conclusions: I agree with HeH's assertion a while ago that SP has been wishywashy. I detect breadcrumbing by the way he says power roles and scum lurk and proceeds to admit to lurking, and also in the way he answered about the targetting of BM. Has sounded a lot of the same notes as Gorgon along the way.

Conclusion: Likely scum.

[ChronX]

I take it you want the town to lose, Distad?

[Battle Mage]

Oh yeah, and that HeH is hypocritical for not voting Gorgon when his analysis points solely in that direction.

That is asinine. I'm not voting for Gorgon because we're in LYLO and if I'm wrong we could lose. Due to the severity of voting incorrectly, I'm not ready to commit to anyone just yet. He's my #1 candidate at the moment and there's a good chance I'll vote for him. But I want to think everything through first so I don't give the scum a chance to quicklynch. How is that hypocritical?

One other note. I've been assuming there is a Godfather in the game. If there is not, then this is easy. We've got 5 dead townies. I make 6 and I've got an innocent on BM and distad, which makes 8. BM has an innocent on ChronX, which makes 9 townies. That leaves Gorgon, Atticus and Sonicpulsar as the Scum. However, I don't think that is the case. That arrangement would give us 5 power roles -- Cop, Doc, 2 Masons and JoAT -- versus scum with only 1 power role -- Roleblocker. That seems too unbalanced in favor of the town, even for a speed game. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely we have a Godfather in the game.

this is true. Also, i find it exceptionally unlikely that there would be a Mafia RB without a GF, when GF is so much more common.
But, point taken about the hypocrisy comment. I guess i was just surprised at you not voting, when your analysis indicated CERTAINTY that Gorgon was scum.

@Chronx-in games i mod, any mafia member can submit the kill. This generally seems to be the rule, but there are some exceptions.

SP's analysis is intriguing, but i feel, not very relevant to me personally. For a start, it makes a lot of assumptions that i feel are way 'out of the ball park', as you American scumbags say.
HeH made an interesting point in response, which i think is very valid. Cop, Doc, Masons would normally be balanced with 3 normal scumbags. Add in a Jack of All Trades, and you start to require mafia powerroles. Of course, i'm not going to try and second guess SPAG here, but it does make a Mafia RB seem like a possibility. It would also explain why this is a Mini Theme game, rather than a Mini Normal. Other than Mafia poweroles, this game could run as a mini normal amirite?

BM

[ChronX]

I thought speed made it theme.

[distad]

I take it you want the town to lose, Distad?

Absolutely not. I have had you repeatedly on my LoS, and most recently at the top. I like your case on SP, actually. I still think you're scum, though, and at this point I have to vote for whom I feel most strongly.

You can say that you made a ploy that didn't work out well, but the actions are what we remember, and they were decidedly anti-town.

[Battle Mage]

Ok, i've given this some thought at College today, and i'm pretty sure that we can trust Distad and HeH. The only way i can feasibly see either as scum, is if they are in a scumtrio with Chronx.

That leaves 4 suspects (discounting myself obvobv)

Gorgon
SonicPulsar
Chronx
Atticus

Now when i considered the setup, i came to the opposite conclusion of HeH. I felt that with a Doc and Cop, there is often an RB. Mafia RB could be way too tricky in a mini game. Other than JoAT, those are all pretty typical protown power roles. At worst, i'm willing to give Gorgon the benefit of the doubt for now.

That leaves Chronx, Atticus, and SP. The latter 2 have been pretty much non-entities with respect to the whole claim-controversy.
Chronx seems like a good play, simply because virtually every concievable scum combo has him at the forefront. But there is a niggling feeling in my gut which tells me that he is a bad play. It could simply be because, if i'm wrong, i'm going to get a whole lotta stick post-game for lynching someone who i had an innocent investigation on, and thus would be mathematically less likely to be scum than anyone.

So, today i'd like to kill either Atticus or SP. I'm certain that 1 of them is scum, and both is a possibility. I'm easy as to which one we kill, but i think they would be the safe option today.

Thoughts?

[Battle Mage]

I thought speed made it theme.

i'm not sure. Ima check with the list mod now.

[Gorgon]

I agree with BM on this ... I could for ChronX, Atticus, or SP. Out of Atticus and SP, I feel that Atticus has been more suspicious throughout this game, so I'd probably pick him if not ChronX.

[distad]

Like I said, BM, I liked ChronX's case on SP. It's certainly believable.

I still like ChronX more, though. I'm going to look back through and see if I can find anything from the first 10-15 pages that stick out, other than the 'lynch a mason' adventure.

[Battle Mage]

ok then, i think i'm willing to go with Chronx. The whole inter-mafia group bussing we seem to have going on strengthens my suspicions.

[Hang 'em High]

All the scenarios I've been considering include the assumption Gorgon is a scum Roleblocker. I'm now going to try and determine if there is an alternative wherein he is town. First, regardless of his alignment I believe his claim. He said he blocked me night 1 and I was indeed blocked. I don't see how he could have claimed this if he wasn't telling the truth. If he's town, that means we've got:

Doc (=Confused=), 2 Vanillas (Raffles & d3sisted I), 2 Masons (curiouskarmadog & d3sisted II), Cop (me) & Roleblocker (Gorgon). That leaves 3 scum among the following: Sonicpulsar (claimed Vanilla), Atticus (claimed Vanilla), distad (claimed Vanilla, investigated innocent by me), ChronX (claimed Vanilla, investigated innocent by BM) and Battle Mage (claimed JoAT, investigated innocent by me).

Scenario 1. If Battle Mage is innocent it means SP and Atticus are Goons and either distad or ChronX is the GF. I don't buy this since it would give the town 6 power roles versus a GF and 2 Goons. Too unbalanced in favor of the town. Conclusion: If Gorgon is town then BM isn't innocent and must be the GF. This brings us to:

Scenario 2. If BM is the Godfather it means distad is innocent and the two other scum come from ChronX, SP and Atticus. This would give the town 5 power roles (Doc, Cop, 2 Masons & RB) versus a GF and 2 Goons. This seems slightly unbalanced in favor of the town, but it's not entirely unreasonable considering it's a speed game starting at night. It also eliminates the bizarre JoAT role which has always struck me as unlikely in a mini. Overall I think this is a likely scenario. I know I've been hammering hard on Gorgon today, but looking at it this way gives me doubts.

After looking at this every way I know how, in my mind I've narrowed it down to two possibilities.

Town:
=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Battle Mage (Jack-of-all-Trades)
distad (Vanilla)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Vanilla)

Scum:
Gorgon (Roleblocker/Prostitute)
ChronX (Godfather)
Either Atticus or Sonicpulsar (Goon)

or

=Confused= (Doctor)
d3sisted I (Vanilla)
Raffles (Vanilla)
Curiouskarmadog (Mason)
d3sisted II (Mason)
Hang ‘em High (Cop)
Gorgon (Roleblocker)
distad (Vanilla)
One of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Vanilla)

Scum:
Battle Mage (Godfather)
Two of Atticus, Sonicpulsar or ChronX (Goon)

There are other scenarios wherein Gorgon could be scum, but the one above seems most likely. Anyway, looking at the two above possibilities, I'd say the second is the more likely setup. It doesn't have any unusual roles, seems fairly balanced and fits the overall play in my opinion.

Now the big question -- who to vote for. I'm going for ChronX. In the first scenario he is the GF. In the second scenario there is a 2/3 chance he is scum. As an added benefit, if he does come back generic scum we'll know BM was lying about his investigation and can safely lynch him tomorrow.

Vote: ChronX

[ChronX]

I can save you the trouble, Distad, because I am reading you in isolation now. Your post 75, you declare me town.

I ask YOU again, what route do you propose we followed that differs from what I pushed in what you refer to as "lynch a mason adventure"? We'd be lynching one now, at LyLo, unless you think that in the 18 hours after I made my fake claim, we would instead have had an "AHA" moment and lynched a scum yesterday.

Masons are only an asset to the town once one is dead. All mafia players know this, so the mafia knows this, so they won't help by NKing one. Once one is lynched, then the remaining mason becomes a WIFOM problem for the mafia, because if they target the mason, they don't take a shot at hitting the cop or the doctor, plus if the doctor is still alive the mason might be protected. THAT is really the best benefit masons contribute to the town, by offering a more target rich environment and cutting down on the "better" protown roles chance of getting targetted for NK.

Anti town versus scum is semantics again, maybe, but am I the SCUMMIEST candidate?

[Hang 'em High]

Wow -- talk about cross-posting. I started composing my previous post after reading post 932. I'll address everything posted after that now if necessary.

[Hang 'em High]

I guess i was just surprised at you not voting, when your analysis indicated CERTAINTY that Gorgon was scum.

You're right -- my previous analysis was all based on the belief Gorgon was scum and based on that it's reasonable you would call me out for not voting. However, I realized I hadn't looked at the alternatives, which is what I did in my last post. I'm glad I did so, because now I'm not so sure Gorgon is scum. He might be, but there are reasonable alternatives.

[distad]

It wasn't the lynch-a-mason adventure on its own. That's not why I brought it up. Again, I totally bought into the argument. I don't think I would have thought of it and it made sense.

But it STILL is something. And taking that with your "I'm a tracker" ploy, it all adds up. You claimed tracker, and BM wasted his protection on *you*. Now, you are claiming town, implying a wasted protection. Wouldn't that have been much better served on d3, a 100% confirmed townie?

So, yes. I think you are the scummiest candidate.

[Hang 'em High]

I think we have 25.5 hours until deadline -- is this correct? I believe we need 4 to lynch before deadline and 3 to lynch at deadline.

I'm happy with my vote, but that's the second vote on ChronX so if we're wrong we're in danger of a quicklynch. Anybody have any serious objections?