Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

So as long as we're trying to figure out if alone's claim is real or fake (and I 100% REFUSE TO VOTE FOR ANYONE until that discussion moves forward)...

1) For everyone who's been here since day 1 (others feel free to weigh in too if you want): if you were a JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter), would you have used your one shot N1? And if so, who would you have used it on? I feel like I was kind of a weird/random choice. Like, maybe a mafia role cop might have checked me out as being a likelier 1-shot cop use on my slot compared to a one-shot town alignment cop doing that. Lowell (the day 1 counter-wagon) seems like the super obvious alignment cop target, with chilledtea (the hammerer) also pretty reasonable.

2) Given the claim of an alignment check on me, why would Maestro get into an argument with me? It seems odd. Maybe a playstyle thing, or a drunk thing, those are possible but I dunno.

3) If you presume that a JK/backup is "not enough"... is a JOAT like alone claims enough? Too much? What are your thoughts on game balance?

[Lowell]

Anyone who doesn't use one-shot abilities N1 is a dumbass.

[heuristically_alone]

I have only one finished game, and I was mafia, but I replaced in within hours of the deadline and I was lynched right away. Made three posts and in the morning I was dead. Never claimed.

[mhsmith0]

@alone: are you claiming any more JOAT abilities? Notably, do you have a 1-shot vig on your list? If you want to demur for whatever other abilities you may or may not have, that's fine, but I need a yes or no on whether you have a vig shot. If you're town with a 1-shot vig, town essentially has three lynches. If you're not, then we're at two. You need to clarify this point. Also, if you DO have a 1-shot vig, you're taking it tonight. Period. If you claim vig tonight and don't shoot, you get lynched. If you claim you holstered it for whatever reason, you get power lynched. No song and dance tomorrow about how "town effectively has two lynches left if they don't lynch me".

Anyone who doesn't use one-shot abilities N1 is a dumbass.

That's kind of side-stepping the actual point I was getting at. I'll break it out further:

1) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot instead of tracker or commuter N1?

2) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot on me instead of you, CT, or anyone else? Would you have done the same in his position? Is that a reasonable choice for target of that power? Given a "generic player x" read of the board, I feel like Lowell would be a pretty likely alignment cop target (counter-wagon, under a lot of suspicion, unlikely NK).

Moreover, given the early day 2 positions that Sayaka represented to the board at 601 through 603 (especially the bit about CT's hammer being horrible), CT would be a alignment cop target consistent with where she was representing her positions (i.e. I'd think she would REALLY want to know if that was just a bad hammer from town or if it was a mafia tactic).

and while we're at it:

3) Lowell, what do you think of the N2 holster claim?

PS why anyone other than alone would want to lynch Dier or anyone else without alone's claim being scrutinized and evaluated and is beyond me. The simple possibility that alone could fake claim and coast from his gambit to a come from behind him should be scary as hell. I don't know why I'm not seeing more concern about this possibility.

/ninjad: fair enough. That kind of situation is never fun.

[Dierfire]

I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).

[Lowell]

^^^ ignoring scum ramblings

[mhsmith0]

So at this point I'd say there are three potential lines of reasoning people could make to invalidate alone's claim:

1) "JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup, while JK+UB is balanced"
Personally I tend to disagree with this take, given the games I'd looked at in comparison. But I've never modded a game here, and this is my first mini normal here, so I'm not speaking with any kind of expertise at all (I know, I know, the newbie excuse... deal with it )

2) "I'm a PR, my PR + JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup while my PR + JK + UB is balanced"
It's probably super obvious at this point, but I'm VT. If I wasn't, I'd probably have already made this argument.

3) "I'm a PR, and I have a result that specifically counters alone's claim"
Again, I don't have this.

Right now I can't make arguments 1, 2, 3, or anything else that specifically counters alone's claim. I feel like people should go on record as signing off on alone's claim (or countering it) explicitly keeping these things in mind. I want EVERYONE to weigh in on the validity of the claim before we do anything else. I know this is annoying, but I think it's important. With no counter-claims (explicit PR claims, game balance commentary or otherwise), we can move forward on an actual lynch. But I can't help this feeling that the claim is probably fake. It just feels off given the game state. If no one counters, then I'm wrong. Won't be the first time, won't be the last time. But I'm not doing anything else until/unless it's resolved.

[mhsmith0]

I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).

Dier, you've been in a bunch of games it looks like. Is it your opinion that, given the flips so far (mafia goon+daytalker), that town JK+UB is balanced, and JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced? Can you point to any specific games you've been in where the roles are reasonable close to this flipped/claimed?

[Dierfire]

I would believe that JOAT + Jailkeeper + Universal Backup is more balanced than Jailkeeper + Universal Backup here, unless the last Mafia player has a role with negative utility (and probably even then--also Traitor is not an option here because the Normal variant would have lost by now).
So, if everyone else is claiming VT here, then I'd consider Alone very likely to be Town.

The exact constellation of roles isn't one that I've seen before, but I could point to Mini 1708, which had a Town Jailkeeper and a Town BOAT. The Town also had an Even-Night Cop and a 1-Shot Gunsmith, and the Mafia had two Goons and a 1-Shot Tracker.

I also recall Mini 1735, which had Town Roleblocker, Town Tracker, and Town 1-Shot Gunsmith against Mafia Rolecop and Mafia Goon (in a game of 11 players). Adding another Goon and another VT, upgrading the Roleblocker to a Jailkeeper, and downgrading the Tracker to a Backup certainly seems to come out in favor of Mafia, even if the Rolecop is downgraded to an Encryptor.

[mhsmith0]

At any rate... last call if anyone wants to counter alone. Because I'm going to have a pretty hard time believing anyone who's going to claim they were just sitting on a PR claim going forward.

[heuristically_alone]

I do not a vig shot. Maybe the reason it remains balanced with JK and JOAT is because none of my one shots are terribly over powerful. Don't most games have 2 PR for town? I've seen setups with 2 PRs and backup as well.

[mhsmith0]

I think the norm is 3 PR's (with backup counting as one of them when it exists). I think sometimes you see 4 when you have roles that don't actually do anything active (like masons), but I'm kinda guessing there. Unfortunate about the vig, but I suppose that'd be too much to shoot for. Lynch/vig inside Dier/Lowell/Riabi -> pop bottles. Guess we actually have work for it instead then

[Lowell]

set-up talk is boring, you're all boring, BORING.

[heuristically_alone]

Be spontaneous. Be fun. Help move the game along.

[heuristically_alone]

VOTE: Dierfire

Seems like the most likely candidate to choose to kill texcat.

[heuristically_alone]

@all
Do we think last mafia has a PR? If so, what might it be?

[Riabi]

VOTE: Dierfire

Seems like the most likely candidate to choose to kill texcat.

Sorry about the absence everyone. I'm read up, I don't really ahve a lot to add to the discussion. The cat kill was weird, and I'm not sure the reasoning behind it, but, Dierfire does seem like a likely candidate for it.

VOTE: dierfire

And to whoever asked for a list of my most recent games... I took about a year off of the site, so I don't remember which games were which alignment at this point, and I ended up flaking out and being replaced out of a few, so, it would be just as much work for me as you at this point to go through my game history.

[heuristically_alone]

What is your reasoning behind Dierfire being a likely candidate for the texcat kill?

[Lowell]

Finally this dierfire wagon is picking up steam. Took you guys forever to just sack up and vote.

[mhsmith0]

Finally this dierfire wagon is picking up steam. Took you guys forever to just sack up and vote.

"Alone might be fakeclaiming" was a super important point to consider. I have every right to grind the game state to a halt until that got resolved.

@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.

[Lowell]

yeah yeah whatever. you do you, it's fine. but seriously let's hammer a chump.

[ToastyToast]

Did you guys forget to go to mafia training camp? You don't base votes on "who is most likely to make x kill" unless you have a really clear motivation...and I've seen literally zero of that....

[ToastyToast]

Also Mhs I feel like you're speculating too much today and scum would take advantage of it. If I find motivation I'll analyze it.

[mhsmith0]

As far as this Dier wagon goes, I feel like the votes on it are all gross. I mean, he MIGHT be the last mafia, but some kind of convincing reasoning would be super helpful.

ninja'd: yeah, that's probably fair, at least wrt the NK. The whole "is this a fake claim" bit I did feel like needed to be thought about.

Actually, that said...

Alone, Riabi: You both said that the NK points to Dier, and that read seem to be the main basis of your votes. Why does the kill point to Dier? Since this seems to be the basis for your votes, I'm sure you can effectively explain the reasoning to us.

[FA_Q2]

VoteCount 5.1

With 6 players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (0):

mhsmith0 (0):

Dierfire (3):

Lowell, heuristically_alone, Riabi

(L-1)

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (3):

mhsmith0, ToastyToast, Dierfire

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-15 01:00:00)

NOTES:
None