Mini Normal 1775 END!

[heuristically_alone]

Hey everyone. Replacing Maestro. Feel free to call me Alone.

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I'm bored. That's basically all I need to explain…

Well that's a start. Anything in particular that bores you? The pace? The content? Etc.

One plausible theory starting to rattle around my mind is that your slot is lurking because it's basically happy with the game state, i.e. the town is totally barking up the wrong tree other than boon.

At some point I'd like you to participate and prove that idea wrong.

I replaced Maestro and I KNOW you are town (based on what I've seen) so that should put your mind at ease.

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Also, since I like making a vote right at the beginning (hoping luck holds) fate decides Toastytoast is looking scummy. Evidence to follow...

VOTE:ToastyToast

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It seems that knightmare (before replaced by ToastyToast) had a lot of heat at the beginning and a lot of votes, including the original player or my role.

You are correct. I actually do believe defensiveness leans more scum. Especially if scum thinks they are

caught and shouldn't be.

I still disagree. I think townies are just as likely to attack bad cases against them. I've caught a lot go scum for this very thing when they push BS reasons for scum reads.

This final statement for me is actually very town-ish to me. It seems that people swayed away from the now ToasyToast, and for good reason. I'll need to read a little more before convincing myself to unvote. A very good point is brought up, though. I think the Mafia do sometimes push hard into "defensive position" and then claim they are being defensive.

And now upon viewing the dead-list, I realize the main accuser of being defensive was Boonskie, a mafia! okok

UNVOTE

. fate has lead me astray....

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Not sure why ToastyToast voted Almost50. Seems strange and out of place. Possibly could be that still wants to appear town by voting someone that otherwise won't affect overall vote. For me, Almost reads townish. In reference to my last post, it is possible that Boonskies voted Knight (now ToastyToast) it could be voting another mafia to throw away suspicion.

For now, looks like I'm voting

VOTE:Expedience

. From what I've read, I agree with the arguments against him, mostly by Almost.

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You shouldn't use provable randomness, while FA_Q2's rules don't seem to specifically prevent it some mods dislike it.

Well hopefully, this mod didn't mind. Though statistically, it actually increases the chances of knowing who was randomly chosen is not mafia since there is only a roughly 10% chance of that person being mafia.

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I was feeling a bit out of it when I made those posts.

Yeah, I do think Lowell is scum. My scumreads are Garmr, Lowell and texcat.

I think I supressed my Lowell scumread so I wouldn't get lynched, and so I wouldn't die of shame if I was wrong. But I already messed up this game so sorry.

That sounds so artificial.

VOTE:Garmr

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I found it interesting that he reads you as scum and you find it artificial. Anyhow, that makes 5 people he has read as scum so I'd imagine at least one of them has to be right.
Though I am curious, what was it that you found artificial: the entire post overall? the apology at the end?

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Well I'm sorry that I was not able to retain 50+ pages of information in my head at all times.

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Yea, I just don't understand why they do that. You sign up for a game, you wait all this time for it to start, and then you just quit and ruin it for everyone. I just discovered the hard way why you shouldn't try to be a replacement in 3 games at once. It's a lot of info and catching up. Luckily, in one I replaced someone already on the wagon to being lynched with less than 24 hours to deadline. Now, I have more time to put energy into this one.

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UNVOTE

VOTE: Lowell

Lowell for the first 2 days of the game stayed under the radar for the most part in the voting process. He wasn't a part of the group responsible for lynching either the town lynched, including the mafia that was lynched second day. Day 3, was happy to vote Expedience. He had been accused of distancing himself from Expedience, so it makes since to me for a mafia to then vote that person to prove himself as town. 1326

Just feeling more bad vibes from Lowell than Garmr at this point.

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My father would never be scum. He is a a great town role model.

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At this point, anyone voting for smith I find suspicious as scum, since I a am 100% certain the smith is town. And if you ask me why, I'd have to try to prove some evidence which I will probably be told is irrelevant, so for now just take my word for it. I'm an extremely honest person.

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Other would not find it compelling due to the fact that I'm not very good yet at justifying my claims. Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

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CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

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As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

Follow your gut. Toasts don't generally have brains. (just a joke, I'm sure you a super intelligent!)

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@Dierfire
I keep going back and forth on Garmr. I voted Garmr earlier, than switched to Lowell.
More than anything I found this interesting and have been trying to make my read on it:

smith is scum, and dierfire could be as well. garmr I hope is, as my pride demands I attack him.

I feel pretty good about you and smith not being scum, which greatly increases my suspicion in Lowell. The question is if some mild bussing is going on, or if garmr and Lowell are on different alliances (or if they are both town accusing each other.

As of now I think I'm scum leaning on Lowell and Garmr... If we get a successful lynch today, I feel really confident in the town's win.

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Turned into busy crazy weekend. Tomorrow I will catch up and put back lots of focus.

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Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

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That was a short review.

I have some ideas.

@Alone

You said that you are going back and forth on Garmr, and also that you think that the statistical discussion between mhsmith0 and me was helpful to Town. I assume, then, that you rate Lowell as more likely to be Mafia than the ~50% figure that mhsmith0 gave (or that you agree with Garmr that other factors decrease that probability).
Could you explain how confident you are in the Lowell read, and why?

I feel most confident at this point for Lowell being mafia. It's some gut feeling based on what's been going on, but also I found the beginning of the game a little interesting. He didn't help with the lynching on the first 2 days, and one of those was a mafia. There was only one other if I remember correctly who didn't participate against the mafia. From a mafia stand point, I feel it is smart to want to distance yourself at the beginning and not take part of any lynching in case it goes a little sour.

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Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

I mean if it were me I'd be trying hard to choose between the two to make sure I get it right, then worry about that question AFTERWARDS if it comes to that. Weird question, bro.

Why in the world would we want to wait to ask questions? Questions and response and information is the number one ingredient for town winning the game.

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@dierfire

Really at this point I don't care whether we vote Garmr or Lowell. At the time of that statistical analysis, I believe my vote was on Garmr, but then I switched to Lowell because he started to seem more scummy and more people seemed in favor of voting him off. Either way, I plan on voting them off today and tomorrow.

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wow, what unkind words. ok

UNVOTE

VOTE: Garmr

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I wanted to kill exp night one because I knew he would cast suspicion on me but boon managed to convince the other scum buddy to vote his way

Could this mean that the third scum is someone quiet or newish that just follows what the others say?

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Or could it be a trick and exp is scum?

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wow, that was stupid.... exp is dead.

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That was a comment to my last post, before seeing your guys' new posts

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Oops. Heaurissjjahsbdalone and Lowell* and Riabi. Lowell is also somewhat unlikely since he was the counter lynch

Haha love my name. I still think Lowell could just as likely be scum

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...Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

I feel like I should address this point specifically. Barring any PRs doing their thing, there is going to be a NK, isn't it better to go out having done something to help find scum rather than to cower in fear of your life?

I feel like this would be a good time to explain what I meant by this. Because the scum is so bad at night kills, I probably won't even be killed tonight either. My role (before I took over) investigated mhs and he came back as innocent.

Claiming now because I feel confident in town's win and to make us win quicker I just want to really ensure there is no mislynch.

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I could only investigate once. Last night, I took myself out of the game at night so I couldn't be killed so I could share that info in the morning.

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Night one. Night two, the slot I replaced made no action.

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Last night, I took myself out of the game at night so I couldn't be killed so I could share that info in the morning.

Commuter ability.

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Oh, sorry . N3 watcher and watched Lowell, who did nothing.

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Getting a "no action" read is pretty much the same thing as me never making an action in the first place. It's not that tough for any mafia to make the kill. That's why I pretty much ignored it. Given how Garmr says before dying that his mafia buddy got to kill who they wanted, if that's true, it does stand the reason that his mafia buddy is someone that would want to perform the kill, so after seeing that, it shakes my confidence on voting Lowell a little.

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Riabi and Toastytoast

Can you both give me your town reads as of the end of the day yesterday, including that of texcat?

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You aren't going to counterclaim. You have nothing to claim. Literally, nothing. I am literally not worried at all. Pissed off? Yes.

So?

Fellas, there's a reason she isn't counter claiming. All your posts are crap now.

How are they crap?

You aren't saying anything or making any kind of cases besides "oh, he's lying about being that role. lynch him. lynch the person who claimed PR. don't believe it. Just don't. please guys, dont believe it. he's lying.

I would have probably have believed you if you had come at me with everything when i infered that you were lying, but you didn't. Too late to go and do as i was expecting town to do now.

that's your entire fucking case.

My entire case on you consists on calling ppl out on stuff they arent doing, fake claiming a PR, and your actions not matching your words. Your AtE is fake, your claim is fake.

Different scenario. I was a leading factor of Madonna's lynch, I feel. I didn't want Lowell lynched, and Madonna was just super scummy. I wouldn't be surprised if Sakura was the only scum there.

Oh my goodness! Sakura and Boons distanced themselves so hardcore back when Boons was getting called out. Sakura also had a hand in all the mislynches, I believe. I think Sakura might have fake claimed her vengekill as well after Boons did his fakeclaim. I think at least one mafia had to have contributed in all lynches, which takes Lowell out as a candidate.

VOTE: Riabi

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Thanks for the research mhsmith. Helps a lot. I had read Dierfire as town before, but I can see that possibilty of scum as well. Might be a minor detail, but I think whoever had read texcat as town is a good bet as the mafia that killed texcat last night.

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N1 Investigated mhsmith
N2 No action
N3 Watched Lowell (took no action)
N4 Commuted and left for the night

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@h_a: did you say what powers you had already/if you've used any?

N1 Investigated mhsmith
N2 No action
N3 Watched Lowell (took no action)
N4 Commuted and left for the night

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Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games?

Mafia would have more motivation to answer this call, while a town would be like whatever I'm town and that's too much work so it won't matter, even though it seems towny to oblige to this request. So far, Dier is the only to respond.

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I have only one finished game, and I was mafia, but I replaced in within hours of the deadline and I was lynched right away. Made three posts and in the morning I was dead. Never claimed.

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I do not a vig shot. Maybe the reason it remains balanced with JK and JOAT is because none of my one shots are terribly over powerful. Don't most games have 2 PR for town? I've seen setups with 2 PRs and backup as well.

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Be spontaneous. Be fun. Help move the game along.

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VOTE: Dierfire

Seems like the most likely candidate to choose to kill texcat.

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@all
Do we think last mafia has a PR? If so, what might it be?

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What is your reasoning behind Dierfire being a likely candidate for the texcat kill?

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Did you guys forget to go to mafia training camp? You don't base votes on "who is most likely to make x kill" unless you have a really clear motivation...and I've seen literally zero of that....

There's mafia training camp? I definitely need that.

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As far as this Dier wagon goes, I feel like the votes on it are all gross. I mean, he MIGHT be the last mafia, but some kind of convincing reasoning would be super helpful.

ninja'd: yeah, that's probably fair, at least wrt the NK. The whole "is this a fake claim" bit I did feel like needed to be thought about.

Actually, that said...

Alone, Riabi: You both said that the NK points to Dier, and that read seem to be the main basis of your votes. Why does the kill point to Dier? Since this seems to be the basis for your votes, I'm sure you can effectively explain the reasoning to us.

I'm mostly going off the fact that Dier seemed to have the biggest read for town on texcat, so he could have mistaken that to mean that he though everyone read that too.

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Diefire, would you be willing to sacrifice yourself if it meant Lowell was our lynch tomorrow?

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I kind of what Dierfire hammered now just to prove mod wrong. haha

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Really no sense in hammering if the game won't move on til tomorrow.

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I'm so undecided against Diefire and Lowell. Has Riabi said why he prefers Diefire over Lowell?

UNVOTE: for now to ensure Dierfiere doesn't get lynched. I'm not going to be able to have time to look this over until later today

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smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

VOTE: Lowell

I really don't like how Lowell has defended himself for the most part. Most of his defenses to other's reads/evidence/analysis has read like this and I am astounded it has worked this entire time.

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Gah these vote charts are stupid.

I still don't see Riabi as scum. Looking back at the Sakura/Boon interaction, I just don't see them both as scum. That's some awfully early, awfully aggressive bussing if that's the case. smith is too hapless to be scum. toasty and huer, I forget why, but I have them as town for some reason. That leaves dier.

Why is it stupid to give evaluations to these vote charts? Mhsmith is trying to take advantage of the slow speed of the game and post more research. When town win, I'm giving most credit to mhsmith.

We have been sitting on this for days. Can somebody just hammer Lowell so the day can end (RIABI TOASTY)? Lowell is going down today no matter what. Little sence in waiting for the deadline. Or Lowell can you just self hammer? If you're town we'll catch scum tomorrow and you'll still win.

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Do we only get 2 chances left to lynch or 3?

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If we're most sure it's not Dierfire, then does it really matter who we lynch today? I still feel more confident in the Lowell lynch. I'll do some re-reading and let you know how I feel about the Riabi. Anyhow, we know that if we're wrong today we're just lynching the other tomorrow, unless something crazy occurs tomorrow

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I definitely see what you are saying, that riabi follows a more standard scum outline, but something I've noticed is that the scum play on mafiascum is often evolving and rarely the scum will be following what seems most standard and ordinary for scum. Also, I tend to trust one's own initial intuition. My psychology teacher used to say that one's first notion is usually correct and when one tries to second guess himself, he's usually wrong. I really hope we're not wrong this time.