Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.


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Post Post #875 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:02 am

Post by Atticus »

Oh, dang, I have to claim.

Vanilla.
Not read yet.
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Post Post #876 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:04 am

Post by Gorgon »

I don't know what it means that ChronX didn't get any results last night ... either he's lying (although I see no reason why he should), Theo messed up, or ... something else. I did block Atticus last night, and I'm assuming he's vanilla, since he hasn't claimed.

And yes, his behaviour in this game is frustrating and detrimental, btw.

I don't have time to analyse things in detail right now, but I will do so soon enough.
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Post Post #877 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:27 am

Post by distad »

Battle Mage wrote:ok a few pretty significant problem with this analysis. The largest issue is probably the fact that if Chronx and I are scum, Gorgon has to be scum, as does HeH. 4 man scum-team would already have won i think, so your entire theory is physically impossible.
Why does Gorgon have to be scum with HeH? Becaue they both claimed to follow you? ChronX couldn't know if someone else followed him, also. The plan stands on needing one person to claim him.


Furthermore there are a few problems with your analysis of my claim in particular. I dont know what you mean by 'reflector'-in my experience the role is typically referred to as Redirector or something similar.
ticky-tacky. The point is still there.
You should also remember that these are only 1 shot powers.
Not forgotten...

My actions on Night 0 make total sense when you think about it. I could have used NK immunity to ensure that i survive to Day 1, but as the game wore on, the chance of me dying via NK would increase exponentially. I figured that the scum are going to take a pop at me on Night 2 if they shoot me on Night 1, so i might aswell try to get some information in case they do make a cock-up. Plus i was hoping that i would get Doc-Protection anyway.
You can hope that all you want. But the fact is that if you don't make it past N0, you help NO ONE. It still doesn't make sense.


Oh and the NK-immunity is not as you say it is. I choose it as my power for 1 night only, making me immune to NK for that night. Again, a 1-shot ability.
In other games that I've played, a 1-shot NK immunity goes into effect the first time you're targeted to be killed. You don't have to say "I'll be NK-immune tonight." The reason I brought up both sides is that EITHER WAY, you guarantee surviving N0!!!!! No need for surprise!!!!


I'm not even going to assess the rest of this analysis, because it is built entirely on lies and misjudgements and impossibilities.
I believe that I have refuted your arguments. Please come back and respond to the rest.


ftr, i really dont like the fact that Atticus isnt saying much. If he is town, we REALLY need his input. If he is scum, i dont want to see him lurk his way to victory...

BM
distad wrote:Well, I'm piecing this together in between conference calls (<sigh>), but this is what I have thus far:

I believe that BM, ChronX and HeH are all scum.

1)They spent the first 4 days of 'today' bickering. It's a huge distancing ploy that kills time so that now when the information is out there, we're under time-duress.

2)BM's claim is way too powerful. Vig, Doctor, Cop, RB, NK-immune, 'Reflector' ?? Good lord. Further, his explanation of =Confused= night doesn't make sense. If he figured that he would be killed, why wouldn't he have used his NK-protection that night? And if it is a standing protection that automatically is used the first night that he is targeted, why would he be surprised at all? He couldn't have died. It just doesn't make sense.

3)ChronX comes out with the idea to lynch a mason. Unfortunately, I agreed. BM knows that they're not scum, so pushes like all hell to not kill them that day; only to revisit them at lylo. After one died, they NK the other to remove the only confirmed townie. Then, the next morning, the first thing BM says is, "I hate it when I'm right." HA!

4)ChronX states that he's a tracker (non-confirmable) and says that he tracked someone to BM. He asks who targeted him, knowing that if no one else claimed to track him, one of the scum would certainly say "I did. I'm" such-and-such role. At that point, BM states that he's confirming ChronX and whomever targeted him (because he clearly didn't die, so that person MUST be a pro-town role).

5)ChronX claims a weird result from Gorgon. The whole time, I assumed that it was BM-ChronX-Gorgon. But, by claiming this weird result, he knows that in lylo, by spinning the town against Gorgon, it would be a scum-win.

6)HeH claims cop and has night results clearing BM. This alone doesn't ping the scumdar much. BM could certainly be a Godfather. The part that gets it is that only Gorgon and HeH said that they targeted BM on the night Raffles died. But, ChronX's weird claim against Gorgon shines the spotlight on HeH.

There it is.

Care to respond, guys?
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Post Post #878 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 8:24 am

Post by Battle Mage »

ChronX wrote:In between coaching assignments:

@BM, I said that I didn't see Gorgon do anything on the night d3/mason died. I don't know what it means. I don't have enough experience with the nuts and bolts of powerroles on this site to do more than speculate what I would have seen if he roleblocked me (its a paradox that could be handled various ways).

@complaint box: I probably won't ever mod on this site. Atticus' behavior is totally unacceptable and he would be replaced at the other site I've played. Here, it seems that picking up your prods and apologizing, while contributing NOTHING to the game for weeks, is viewed as a potential strategy to victory and not shitty inconsiderate behavior.
hmm this gives us a real quandry. Atticus didn't claim Redirector (which i was hoping he would do, as it would clear up this issue very easily). As it stands, i'm genuinely confused. Need to give this alot of thought tomorrow.

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Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #879 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 8:33 am

Post by Battle Mage »

1. I didnt say Gorgon had to be scum with HeH. I'm saying that if i was scum, Gorgon would have to be my buddy, unless you seriously believe that i try ridiculously risky gambits when scum. If HeH and Chronx are also scum with me, that makes 4 minimum. Which as you well know is not the case. So just drop this. :roll:

2. We can discuss the best strategy to use when made Jack of All Trades, after the game. Until then you seem to be arguing for the sake of it. Maybe you genuinely feel that protecting myself for 1 night, even though i would be significantly more likely to die, informationless on the next night, was the best plan, but i know that you understand the logic behind what i did, as a viable alternative. So please stop feigning incredulity.

3. fyi, i've never seen a variant of nk immunity like that before. Suffice to say, if it does exist, it isnt exactly compatible with this role. :P
Personally i thought it would be better to take a risk on surviving N0, knowing that if i was successful, i would have some solid information to provide to the town, rather than merely my infinite wisdom. Much as we both know that i am a brilliant player, there is no substitute for mod confirmation. Mathematically, what i did makes perfect sense. Again, we can go into detail about this after the game, if i am wrong, and you do turn out to be town.

It concerns me that you feel you have 'refuted my arguments'. What you originally had was hardly a case, and frankly, i've torn that apart.

Keep digging though. Its not going to be my grave.

BM
distad wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:ok a few pretty significant problem with this analysis. The largest issue is probably the fact that if Chronx and I are scum, Gorgon has to be scum, as does HeH. 4 man scum-team would already have won i think, so your entire theory is physically impossible.
Why does Gorgon have to be scum with HeH? Becaue they both claimed to follow you? ChronX couldn't know if someone else followed him, also. The plan stands on needing one person to claim him.


Furthermore there are a few problems with your analysis of my claim in particular. I dont know what you mean by 'reflector'-in my experience the role is typically referred to as Redirector or something similar.
ticky-tacky. The point is still there.
You should also remember that these are only 1 shot powers.
Not forgotten...

My actions on Night 0 make total sense when you think about it. I could have used NK immunity to ensure that i survive to Day 1, but as the game wore on, the chance of me dying via NK would increase exponentially. I figured that the scum are going to take a pop at me on Night 2 if they shoot me on Night 1, so i might aswell try to get some information in case they do make a cock-up. Plus i was hoping that i would get Doc-Protection anyway.
You can hope that all you want. But the fact is that if you don't make it past N0, you help NO ONE. It still doesn't make sense.


Oh and the NK-immunity is not as you say it is. I choose it as my power for 1 night only, making me immune to NK for that night. Again, a 1-shot ability.
In other games that I've played, a 1-shot NK immunity goes into effect the first time you're targeted to be killed. You don't have to say "I'll be NK-immune tonight." The reason I brought up both sides is that EITHER WAY, you guarantee surviving N0!!!!! No need for surprise!!!!


I'm not even going to assess the rest of this analysis, because it is built entirely on lies and misjudgements and impossibilities.
I believe that I have refuted your arguments. Please come back and respond to the rest.


ftr, i really dont like the fact that Atticus isnt saying much. If he is town, we REALLY need his input. If he is scum, i dont want to see him lurk his way to victory...

BM
distad wrote:Well, I'm piecing this together in between conference calls (<sigh>), but this is what I have thus far:

I believe that BM, ChronX and HeH are all scum.

1)They spent the first 4 days of 'today' bickering. It's a huge distancing ploy that kills time so that now when the information is out there, we're under time-duress.

2)BM's claim is way too powerful. Vig, Doctor, Cop, RB, NK-immune, 'Reflector' ?? Good lord. Further, his explanation of =Confused= night doesn't make sense. If he figured that he would be killed, why wouldn't he have used his NK-protection that night? And if it is a standing protection that automatically is used the first night that he is targeted, why would he be surprised at all? He couldn't have died. It just doesn't make sense.

3)ChronX comes out with the idea to lynch a mason. Unfortunately, I agreed. BM knows that they're not scum, so pushes like all hell to not kill them that day; only to revisit them at lylo. After one died, they NK the other to remove the only confirmed townie. Then, the next morning, the first thing BM says is, "I hate it when I'm right." HA!

4)ChronX states that he's a tracker (non-confirmable) and says that he tracked someone to BM. He asks who targeted him, knowing that if no one else claimed to track him, one of the scum would certainly say "I did. I'm" such-and-such role. At that point, BM states that he's confirming ChronX and whomever targeted him (because he clearly didn't die, so that person MUST be a pro-town role).

5)ChronX claims a weird result from Gorgon. The whole time, I assumed that it was BM-ChronX-Gorgon. But, by claiming this weird result, he knows that in lylo, by spinning the town against Gorgon, it would be a scum-win.

6)HeH claims cop and has night results clearing BM. This alone doesn't ping the scumdar much. BM could certainly be a Godfather. The part that gets it is that only Gorgon and HeH said that they targeted BM on the night Raffles died. But, ChronX's weird claim against Gorgon shines the spotlight on HeH.

There it is.

Care to respond, guys?
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

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Post Post #880 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:42 pm

Post by Atticus »

ChronX wrote: @complaint box: I probably won't ever mod on this site. Atticus' behavior is totally unacceptable and he would be replaced at the other site I've played. Here, it seems that picking up your prods and apologizing, while contributing NOTHING to the game for weeks, is viewed as a potential strategy to victory and not shitty inconsiderate behavior.
You're completely correct in this. Normally, I'm quite post-happy, but seeing as I'm pressed at school, I don't get a chance to post much. Normally I could make do, but the nature of this game is speed, and I can't keep up reading. If I can't keep up reading, I don't feel I have anything conclusive enough to post. Really, I hadn't been having an access problem before I replaced, and I apologise.

Currently reading through game posts.
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Post Post #881 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 3:35 pm

Post by Atticus »

ChronX wrote:HeH, yes, although I wouldn't mind at least knowing that Atticus is reading along before I share everything I know, also. His "Oh gee I haven't read at least half the game" shtick is poor, and if he pulls it again after this whole exchange, I'm going to be upset. The other 2 guys who haven't been as vocal as HeH, BM, Gorgon and myself have at least posted enough so that we know they are following along.
Firstly, my bad on that one...

Secondly, after reading the whole BM-ChronX deadlock, I assumed three things:
1) My theory of ChronX/BM scum pair is probably not plausible.
2) BM is indeed an idiot.
3) One of ChronX, BM, and HeH is scum. ChronX is likely to be that scum. Why? Look no further, but this is constructed while I read, so do excuse me if I repeat others' opinions.

Tracker, as I see it, is an easy to fake role, so long as you know who did what. ChronX claimed to see things only after they were claimed by others, save for, if I recall correctly, when he claimed to have watched Gorgon. As HeH had suggested, it is possible that Gorgon could be a mafia role blocker, in which case they could have easily collaborated to make this claim.

What I don't think:
1) BM is scum. I'm afraid I don't think highly enough of him, that he could have come up with a jack-of-all trades claim.
2) That, as HeH suggested, there are two mafias. There's only been one kill per night.
3) That HeH can
not
be insane/naive. If BM is a one-shot cop (among other things), and if ChronX might be a tracker, HeH may indeed have sanity issues.
ChronX wrote:Well. One of my long held theories is now mostly in ruins; I thought for SURE SonicP was going to counterclaim cop once I saw that HeH had claimed cop. I had deliberately breadcrumbed in the direction of SP, implying at one point that it was he that I had followed, because I wanted other claims to have that essence of doubt about him and what he might claim.
In essence, this is ChronX having hoped that SP would pick up on his lead and counterclaim HeH, making it more likely that HeH could be lynched.

If I picked 3 scum at this point:
SonicPulsar
ChronX
Gorgon

These are, however, just my suspicions. But if I needed to vote, I would pick ChronX without hesitation.
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Post Post #882 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 4:01 pm

Post by ChronX »

Why me? If MY claim is fake, Gorgon's must be fake (or he's mafia roleblocker). If BM's claim is fake, Gorgon's most likely would be fake.

If HeH's claim is true and BM's claim is true, Gorgon would have to be telling the truth except that he would probably be a mafia roleblocker. Disatad and I can't BOTH be godfather, and an innocent has been returned on each of us. (Again, this paragraph assumes truth from BM AND HeH).

Keep in mind also that Gorgon hammered CKD ("inadvertently") and was quick to cast the second vote on BM (a VERY dangerous vote) on this day.

For the record, my vote on BM was bait, I had 2 windows open one with UNVOTE already typed and bolded properly. I was refreshing the other to see if one or more people jumped in with a vote.

My whole gambit has probably been reckless, but I for one couldn't see how the town was going to budge off of senseless inaction on the day the masons were still unverified, and onward from there. My claim, I felt, was needed to move the town along.
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Post Post #883 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2007 11:43 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Atticus wrote: Secondly, after reading the whole BM-ChronX deadlock, I assumed three things:
1) My theory of ChronX/BM scum pair is probably not plausible.
2) BM is indeed an idiot.
3) One of ChronX, BM, and HeH is scum. ChronX is likely to be that scum. Why? Look no further, but this is constructed while I read, so do excuse me if I repeat others' opinions.
1. This is correct.
2. This is not only incorrect, but also completely unhelpful.
3. This is improbable. For a start, if i was scum, HeH would have to be scum (or a cop with sanity issues-in this case Distad would be scum). Gorgon would also almost certainly be scum (because its the only way i would have known that i was RBed). Oh and ofc, Chronx would have to be lying, because there is no way that Gorgon would target me at night IF I WAS HIS SCUMBUDDY. :roll:
Again, i CANNOT be scum in this game. It just doesnt work, because BM-scum implicates so many other people who would have to be scum aswell, and if i was scum, the game would already be over. :p
Now remember that i have an innocent investigation on Chronx. It would be VERY unlucky for me to have hit the Mafia GF in my only investigation, so this is a pretty strong case not to lynch Chronx yet. Later he confirmed himself in my eyes, by correctly claiming to track someone to me. Now we only have 1 claimed RoleBlocker, so assuming all protown players are telling the truth, we have at most, 1 protown RoleBlocker. Assuming Gorgon is the protown Roleblocker, Chronx-scum would have had no way of knowing that he targetted me, thus Chronx is 100% confirmed town if Gorgon is town. On the flipside, if Gorgon is a Mafia Roleblocker, Chronx can still be protown. So, fighting against those 0.01% odds of Chronx scum, i think we can trust him. Then ofc we have Gorgon, who's claim fits the bill pretty well. The really confusing thing here is that Chronx has to some extent countered Gorgon's action last night, by denying it being the case. Now aside from incredibly unlikely scenarios like flawed-Trackers, i think this could well mean that Chronx was Roleblocked last night. And not necessarily by Gorgon either. It is still possible for us to have a Mafia RoleBlocker and a protown RoleBlocker. We can confirm Gorgon as a RoleBlocker, but him being Mafia RB does kind of fit aswell. I mean, he could have thought that last night, if he blocked Chronx, he might have failed to get a result, and he could safely claim whatever he wanted. A potential slip-up perchance?

Again, i find it hard to believe, but it is a possibility nonetheless. Then we come to HeH, who's claim is highly suspect. He claimed an innocent investigation on me on the 2nd night, yet when i came forward and asked him the next day whether the nights actions had changed his view about me (i thought he was the RB) he said that he still considered me a suspect. When he had an innocent investigation on me? Inconsistency ftw! lol
He also claimed an innocent investigation on Distad, which i find very hard to believe. His motives have already been assessed as flawed, but i simply cannot see Distad as protown here. In fact, i think he would be a good lynch today, simply as the 'safe option'. I dont want to take a major gamble lynching a power role who could end upto be a mafia power role if we are incredibly lucky. Rather i find it better to lynch someone who has acted scummy throughout the game, and now is nearly guaranteed to be scum irrespective of the other members. The only thing in Distads favour is that his claim is one of the most reasonable in the game. He didnt claim another power role which is good, but then, it would be VERY foolish to under-estimate Distad's intelligence. He's a strong player, and i'm sure he could have realised that another power role claim could land him in alot of bother. I dont like the way he tried to half-softclaim vanilla early on either in an attempt to increase the validity of his claim. His pushing of ridiculous ideas today is perhaps a sign of panic.

Then we have SonicPulsar and Atticus. Both claimed Vanilla, both could be scum. Neither of them have given off strong scum vibes, and thus, i think we should leave both alone for today at least. Of course we will need to look at them at some point, but for now there are better options. Of the two, SonicPulsar looks way more protown to me.

So that leaves us with HeH and Distad. If Distad is scum, HeH is also scum, so we can kill 2 birds with 1 stone today if we lynch him. Equally if HeH is scum, we can say with some assurity that Distad is also scum. Hence i reccommend one of these 2 as today's lynch.

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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #884 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:27 am

Post by ChronX »

I wholeheartedly disagree that Distad is the best lynch today. In fact, I think he is the WORST lynch today.

The MAIN reason for this is that at the time I voted BM, and Gorgon added his vote, Distad and HeH were both online. It would have been pretty easy for them to hammer if they were both scum. Unless they are both scum and there isn't a third, which I think is probably unlikely.

Nothing in BM's claim involves him with results on Distad, yet he has been pushing a Distad lynch hard. He even tried to set him up as a "lurker" at the start of this day.
BM wrote:it would be VERY foolish to under-estimate Distad's intelligence. He's a strong player
Could this be why the push on Distad?
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Post Post #885 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:34 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Hmm, i don't think that is by any means conclusive. As i said, Distad is a good player. And he is patient too. I'd be very surprised if he attempted a gambit there, when both you and Gorgon were online, and could unvote at any second. In case you hadnt noticed, Distad has been my my second scummiest person since Day 1. I was wrong about Gorgon, but i dont think i'm wrong here. Of course, as i think we can be sure that HeH and Distad have the same role, i'm ok with lynching HeH today, and Distad tomorrow.

I dont understand your last comment. I hope it isnt an insinuation that i could be scum, when i have proven that to be impossible, 2 posts up.
Plus, even if i was scum, i actually dont see why it would matter whether i got a mislynch on a strong player or not. lol.

BM


ChronX wrote:I wholeheartedly disagree that Distad is the best lynch today. In fact, I think he is the WORST lynch today.

The MAIN reason for this is that at the time I voted BM, and Gorgon added his vote, Distad and HeH were both online. It would have been pretty easy for them to hammer if they were both scum. Unless they are both scum and there isn't a third, which I think is probably unlikely.

Nothing in BM's claim involves him with results on Distad, yet he has been pushing a Distad lynch hard. He even tried to set him up as a "lurker" at the start of this day.
BM wrote:it would be VERY foolish to under-estimate Distad's intelligence. He's a strong player
Could this be why the push on Distad?
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #886 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:51 am

Post by ChronX »

OK, so here's the thing. I understand it is dangerous to do this, because it will get me in hot water, but I am going to do it, because I think it will help the town to analyze the data we now have, and help us arrive at the right conclusion.
ChronX wrote: I have been pretty considered with everything I have done since the time I began to seriously contemplate a claim game-yesterday
QFT
Atticus wrote:Tracker, as I see it, is an easy to fake role, so long as you know who did what.
QF half T

Tracker was a very easy role to ambiguously fake. The beauty of the way i did it was, I implicitly faked WATCHER, except if I had done that, I would have had to account for everyone that arrived at a particular destination. Since I wanted to involve BattleMage's house in my plot, but I didn't know who did what at all, I had to say SOMEONE went there, and leave it open who.

The other vanilla townies, like me, would assume that it was very reasonable that SOMEONE went to BM's house. A cop, a nurse, a roleblocker....BM has been the center of attention this game, by his own device of praising his own experience relative to everyone else, so it is reasonable to assume SOMEONE went there.

But it all folded together way too neatly. BM pushes insanely hard for the person "I followed" to come forward, when the lynch on CKD was a done deal. So he can NK a better pro town role?

Then, Gorgon comes forward with a neatly orchestrated claim of roleblocker, on BM on the night in question. Again, BM pushes and pushes for more info from me...can I confirm that Gorgon was the one who visited him? Well, no...

I don't know what to make of HeH's claim. If he WAS roleblocked on the night confused died, then the most logical conclusion is that BM is Godfather, Gorgon IS a roleblocker, for the mafia (which would also fit with his claim that he clocked Atticus, whose play could be seen as protown powerrole trying to survive by being under the radar and/or lurkish...a possible lynch target would escape mafia NK generally) and there are only 2 of them.

I also picked BM because of his vanity; if he had turned out to be innocent, I can see him easily believing that, of course people were targetting him.

I acknowledge that my play is not the best protown play ever, but I was convinced the masons being unconfirmed would do us more harm than good if they lived and were still unconfirmed today, especially CKD, who was scummier and scummier with each passing post. In a game with several to choose among for "worst town play" mine won't go down as the winner I'm sure. Particularly since I am pretty sure I have caught us scum.

I think Gorgon is the hand's down lynch today. In particular, read the interplay between him and BM from day 1. It smacks of BM's arrogance, and seems to all be orchestrated, which it could easily have been since they can talk at night if they are both mafia. It all just REEKS of BM suggesting ways to play their interaction. Right down to BM calling Gorgon scummy and asking for a claim.

I can imagine the incredulous "Are you claiming vanilla town" post now, so yes, I am admitting to fake claiming Tracker and now claiming that I am nothing other than a vanilla townie who got too impatient and decided to try a ploy. For a weak bit of metagame evidence, look on page 6 of Open 44, where I ask Theo in the open to post my LA status into this game if it came out of lock over last weekend. It never occurred to me to PM him that request, since I had no other reason to PM him. I've actually been worrying if someone would metagame me and find that and call me on it....
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Post Post #887 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:08 am

Post by Battle Mage »

WHAT. THE. HELL!?
omfg. This game is confusing the heck out of me. Now NOBODY is confirmed. I don't trust Chronx anymore, and he could well be the Mafia GF. If that was the case, why would he retract his lies now?
I'd say atm, Gorgon is the closest thing (apart from me) to a confirmed innocent, we have. We know at least that he is a RoleBlocker, and thus, he is a bad lynch for today. If Gorgon is Mafia Roleblocker, we can be pretty sure that Chronx is the other scumbag, but again, we can look at that tomorrow if necessary. Now i think Distad is a good play still.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #888 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 4:15 am

Post by distad »

Well, at least I got the ChronX part right. Even if only that he was lying about being tracker. (LAL?) At least that evens the balance a little.

In looking back, I think I overstepped a little on my theory. It doesn't seem super likely that HeH is scum. No one else has claimed cop, and it seems reasonable that there would be one.

BM's biggest problem with my theory was that there couldn't be 4 scum. Well, leaving HeH out, ChronX/BM/Gorgon as a trio still works. That would mean that BM is the Godfather.

I have to sort this all out in my head. I'll be back later tonight.
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Post Post #889 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 5:11 am

Post by Atticus »

I probably shouldn't have posted my thoughts so late at night, but I think I stand by most of them.
"There is nothing more exhilarating than to be shot at without result." - Winston Churchill
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Post Post #890 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 6:13 am

Post by Gorgon »

Christ ... things change quickly around here. Now I'm paranoid about everyone.
ChronX wrote:If MY claim is fake, Gorgon's must be fake (or he's mafia roleblocker).
Okay, so now you've revealed that your claim is fake, which must mean that my claim is fake, right? Explain why my claim is implicitly fake
just because
you didn't actually track me to BM on the second night, as you said you did.
If BM's claim is fake, Gorgon's most likely would be fake.
Again, why? Remember that I said I roleblocked BM, and
then
he came out and said he was roleblocked. If he's lying about his role and night actions, there is, again, nothing that implicates me.
Battle Mage wrote:For a start, if i was scum, HeH would have to be scum (or a cop with sanity issues-in this case Distad would be scum).


Or you could be the godfather. You left that out.
Battle Mage wrote:Gorgon would also almost certainly be scum (because its the only way i would have known that i was RBed).
Again, you only said you were roleblocked after I said I roleblocked you ...

---

Right now, my first instinct is to lynch ChronX as a liar who has, along with BM, dragged out this day unnecessarily. I believe his gambit brought the town nothing other than wasted time and greater confusion, even though he thinks it worked brilliantly. Now, 3 days from the deadline, we have little else than a few claims, one of them fake.

However, I'm having a hard time coming up with motivations for him to retract his claim as scum. He was in no particular danger, and retracting the claim greatly increases the risk of him getting lynched.
I want to concentrate on playing one game at a time so I'm not available for replacements. If this changes I will change this sig accordingly.
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Post Post #891 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 7:48 am

Post by theopor_COD »

Hi. Still no votes -

Deadline ladies is in 3 days time.
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Post Post #892 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:10 am

Post by Atticus »

Okay, I just actually read ChronX's latest post.

What I've done is caught you in a lie. I normally lynch all liars, but in 471, which I just finished modding, one the vanillas claimed watcher and then mason with another vanilla which who confirmed it which stirred up a whole lot of shit. I want to kill you, but now I'm worried of the results.

Now, BM, I retract calling you an idiot, and place that on ChronX.
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Post Post #893 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:31 am

Post by Battle Mage »

distad wrote:Well, at least I got the ChronX part right. Even if only that he was lying about being tracker. (LAL?) At least that evens the balance a little.

In looking back, I think I overstepped a little on my theory. It doesn't seem super likely that HeH is scum. No one else has claimed cop, and it seems reasonable that there would be one.

BM's biggest problem with my theory was that there couldn't be 4 scum. Well, leaving HeH out, ChronX/BM/Gorgon as a trio still works. That would mean that BM is the Godfather.

I have to sort this all out in my head. I'll be back later tonight.
ah i kinda see what you mean now. But this theory is entirely dependant on me being a Mafia GF, and Gorgon being Mafia RB.
Having said that, now Chronx has retracted his Tracker claim, a Cop is far more likely. I expect SPAG to put 1 investigative role in (excluding JoAT). That means Distad and HeH are confirmed town. Wow, this game is crazy. That means 1 of Gorgon/Chronx has to be scum. Chronx can only be a GF, and Gorgon can only be a Mafia RB. Atticus or SP must be the final scum in this scenario.
I'm just finding this whole game incredibly confusing atm..

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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #894 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:34 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Actually this by Gorgon is a lie. I claim i was RBed before you claimed implicitly that you RBed me. You and HeH claimed to target me, after which i claimed i was RBed. Plus i breadcrumbed before this. Dammit, why does your post give me such a protown vibe when your suspicions seem so damn insane.

Gorgon wrote: Again, why? Remember that I said I roleblocked BM, and
then
he came out and said he was roleblocked. If he's lying about his role and night actions, there is, again, nothing that implicates me.
Battle Mage wrote:For a start, if i was scum, HeH would have to be scum (or a cop with sanity issues-in this case Distad would be scum).


Or you could be the godfather. You left that out.
Battle Mage wrote:Gorgon would also almost certainly be scum (because its the only way i would have known that i was RBed).
Again, you only said you were roleblocked after I said I roleblocked you ...

---

Right now, my first instinct is to lynch ChronX as a liar who has, along with BM, dragged out this day unnecessarily. I believe his gambit brought the town nothing other than wasted time and greater confusion, even though he thinks it worked brilliantly. Now, 3 days from the deadline, we have little else than a few claims, one of them fake.

However, I'm having a hard time coming up with motivations for him to retract his claim as scum. He was in no particular danger, and retracting the claim greatly increases the risk of him getting lynched.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #895 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:35 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Atticus wrote:Okay, I just actually read ChronX's latest post.

What I've done is caught you in a lie. I normally lynch all liars, but in 471, which I just finished modding, one the vanillas claimed watcher and then mason with another vanilla which who confirmed it which stirred up a whole lot of shit. I want to kill you, but now I'm worried of the results.

Now, BM, I retract calling you an idiot, and place that on ChronX.
Oh the irony. In a game atm, i'm lecturing newbs that LaL is a BS argument. Now i have the issue of whether i go against my instincts in order to stand by my own beliefs, or go with my gut, but fail to practice what i preach...

BM
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #896 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:21 am

Post by Gorgon »

Ugh, sorry BM. I recalled incorrectly. You
did
say you were roleblocked before I said I was a roleblocker. It was only HeH who said he was roleblocked after I said I blocked him. This means that either you're some sort of protown scum role, or your claim is correct. Otherwise there is no way you could have known I blocked you that night, unless you were just guessing wildly, which is an unfair assumption.

Now, HeH says he has an innocent on you. If you are some sort of scum powerrole who can target people at night, this means you can't be the godfather as well, so HeH would be lying and is also scum. There is of course a possibilty that HeH is lying scum while you're innocent, but at least I can assume that if you're scum, HeH is scum as well ... and that if HeH is a real cop, then you're town.

Now, I agree that now that we know that ChronX is not a tracker, a cop is more likely. Also, fakeclaiming cop with two innocents seems kind of pointless to me, so I'm thinking HeH's claim is genuine. This clears you as well, BM.

So right now I think I can tentatively say that have two innocents on my list: BM and HeH. At least that's something.
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Post Post #897 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:23 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Gorgon wrote:Ugh, sorry BM. I recalled incorrectly. You
did
say you were roleblocked before I said I was a roleblocker. It was only HeH who said he was roleblocked after I said I blocked him. This means that either you're some sort of protown scum role, or your claim is correct. Otherwise there is no way you could have known I blocked you that night, unless you were just guessing wildly, which is an unfair assumption.

Now, HeH says he has an innocent on you. If you are some sort of scum powerrole who can target people at night, this means you can't be the godfather as well, so HeH would be lying and is also scum. There is of course a possibilty that HeH is lying scum while you're innocent, but at least I can assume that if you're scum, HeH is scum as well ... and that if HeH is a real cop, then you're town.

Now, I agree that now that we know that ChronX is not a tracker, a cop is more likely. Also, fakeclaiming cop with two innocents seems kind of pointless to me, so I'm thinking HeH's claim is genuine. This clears you as well, BM.

So right now I think I can tentatively say that have two innocents on my list: BM and HeH. At least that's something.
a protown scum role? lol
oh and if you think HeH is town, you can add Distad to that list, unless you think he is a GF (which we dont know we have).
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #898 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 10:32 am

Post by Gorgon »

Battle Mage wrote:a protown scum role? lol
oh and if you think HeH is town, you can add Distad to that list, unless you think he is a GF (which we dont know we have).
Man, there should be a rule against posting on Sundays. My brain doesn't work too well on Sundays, usually. I meant scum powerrole. :P

And yes, you're right ... if I assume HeH is a cop, distad is town unless he's a godfather. The same applies to ChronX if I assume that you're town. Now, the problem with this is that If I assume that all four of you are town, then that leaves three guys, one of which is me. :shock: Therefore, at least one of you four has to be scum. Either ChronX or distad being a godfather would fit this picture.
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Post Post #899 (ISO) » Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:08 am

Post by ChronX »

Atticus wrote:Okay, I just actually read ChronX's latest post.

What I've done is caught you in a lie. I normally lynch all liars, but in 471, which I just finished modding, one the vanillas claimed watcher and then mason with another vanilla which who confirmed it which stirred up a whole lot of shit. I want to kill you, but now I'm worried of the results.

Now, BM, I retract calling you an idiot, and place that on ChronX.
What lie did you catch me in Atticus? Or will we have to wait another 2 weeks before you can summon the energy to make a post with content in it?
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