Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!
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theopor_COD PhD'oh!
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pwayne66 Goon
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I can see how it would appear that way since you have removed 80% of the quote. The other 80% does address it. I know this doesn't help your case at all but lets keep the debate honest. Your case is that I am cult and that the cult benfits from killing tar. I said the cult doesn't benefit from killing tar. How does this not address what I quoted?MoS wrote:What are you trying to say here? This sentence has nothing to do with what you quoted, and it looks more like you are trying to change the subject than anything else, because you aren't responding to anything in the above quote.
Now
What does THIS have to do with what I said? Nobody has ever denied that the cult can recruit someone other than Tar. I said that the cult has no need to kill Tar (a point that seems to be the foundation of your case) and, in fact benefits more from him being alive going into day two. In what way have you addressed this serious flaw in your case?MoS wrote:Yes they CAN recruit someone other than Tar. However, this is the situation I am advocating:
Good. Do you have a case for me to hear? As near as I can tell I have several times for somebody to present me with a better case and all I get is drama.MoS wrote:Leave Tar alive, lynch someone who is more likely to be scum right now (you or Kakeng), cult attempts to recruit somebody
You highlighted my worst case scenerio and ignored my already stated best case scenerio, that Tar is lying and is scum. Granted my worst case senerio yeilds better results then your insistance that we either lynch a lurker or your flawed case about me.MoS wrote:- Lynch Tar as a protown player so that the cult can't recruit him, cult attempts to recruit somebody
The only legitamate comment in your whole post. Though you did leave out that in your scenerio you have no case...what so ever... so we are just as likely to lynch town, then lose Tar to the cult, and then lose a NK to the mafia. We can argue about the odds and probabolity and the cost/gain ratios, because I can see where I may be mistaken here, but I still think my situation has better likelyhood for a positive turn out for the town.MoS wrote:In both situations the cult attempts to recruit somebody. However, in your scenario we lynch someone who is more likely to be town than anything else. In my scenario, I give us a chance to kill scum today. Your scenario wastes a lynch and kills off a protown players, both of which are strictly helpful to the scum.
Now,thats 4 questions addressed to MoS:
1) How does this not address what I quoted?
2) What does THIS have to do with what I said?
3) In what way have you addressed this serious flaw in your case?
4) Do you have a case for me to hear?-
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theopor_COD PhD'oh!
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pwayne66 Goon
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theopor_COD
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pwayne66 Goon
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ah Blackstrike... I forgot that is who Tar was replacing... I thought that BS was genuine and misunderstood. His primary knock was saying something along the lines of "dead townies are just as good as dead scum". This never did strike me as a mastermind ploy to make all the townies kill themselves. I thought it was an unfortunate choice of words. Nothing more.-
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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Okay...whoops, I completely misread pwaynes posts. I read the last 2 pages and I see what is going on. I'm with MoSVote Pwayne66
At the worstTar is recruited by the cult and he's now scum. BUT WAIT! What if, and I know this sounds weird, we let Tar live, right, as scum. Then we see who we can connect him with. As the only cultist, besides the leader, we can then find the leader! ZOMG!
The cult is my biggest fear in the game as they can get quite a large voting block. Two scum, two votes. By D3 we could have 3 cult members, even if we lynch cult everyday we're still 1 behind.It's unfortunate that good oral sex excuses bad chemistry. - Korts-
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pwayne66 Goon
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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pwayne66 Goon
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curiouskarmadog This Space for Rant
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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curiouskarmadog This Space for Rant
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thats really it...this entire game you have been constantly PINGing my scum dar....Oman wrote:Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch.unvote, vote Omanyou are jumping on a bandwagon because it looks pro-town (agreeing with MoS, indeed), but you really dont know the facts and you are trying to push false information.NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE-
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curiouskarmadog This Space for Rant
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misread my ass, there is an entire page where Pwayne and I are arguing...now you are just throwing your vote around at whatever looks the most pro-town.Oman wrote:Uh hu. The wagon on you is huge, it has nothing to do with the fact that I've been away for 48 hrs, got back, misread something you said and now want you (scumbum) to die.NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE-
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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God dammit. I only read pwaynes posts on my second read (it was specific to him) and now I've read yours. I swear he should put who he quotes in his post.
This Post really threw me off, especially the last line.
I didn't even realise you were voting him.
I appologise ckd, I know nothing I can say will get rid of your angry vote on me, but I hope you understand I did a "find posts by" on Pwayne and got so damn confused.It's unfortunate that good oral sex excuses bad chemistry. - Korts-
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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curiouskarmadog This Space for Rant
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this vote might be hasty,
unvote Oman,revote Pwayne
FoS Oman
Oman, you have been on my radar since the beginning of this game. But there is no way to prove whether this was actually a lack of reading (poor play) or jumping on a pro-town looking BW (scum play) with little reason. I suggest Oman that you read this last 5 pages and justify your vote instead of saying "I agree".
Pwayne still has my vote because he still wants to push this idea that I think is anti-town....I am interested to hear what others stand on this issue.
and please actually read the game before commentingNO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE-
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vollkan The Interrogator
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Some numbers for fun:
It is currently 9:2:1.
(For the following analysis, let wcs = worst-case scenario, bcs = best case scenario and CL = Cult Leader)
If we lynch vanilla-Tar
Lynch van-Tar = 8:2:1
Maf NK of town = 7:2:1
--Cult recruit = 6:2:2
--No Cult recruit = 7:2:1
Maf NK of CL = 8:2:0
--Cult recruit = 7:2:1 (since the cult doesn't lose if the leader is NKed judging by the role PM examples on page 1, it is possible that the leader could get NKed tonight but successfully recruit.)
--No Cult recruit = 8:2:0
As such, with a lynch of vanTar today our possible D2 openings (assuming mafia does NK) are:
6:2:2 (wcs) , 7:2:1, (with CL), 7:2:1 (without CL) and 8:2:0 (bcs)
If we do not lynch vanilla-Tar
Mislynch = effectively the same as above, though I would venture to say that it is more likely than not that the cult will recruit vanTar, which makes the 6:2:2 and 7:2:1 (without CL) outcomes slightly more likely.
Maflynch = 9:1:1
Maf NK of town = 8:1:1
--Cult recruit = 7:1:2
--No Cult Recruit = 8:1:1
Maf NK of CL = 9:1:0
--Cult recruit = 8:1:1
--No Cult recruit = 9:1:0
CL Lynch = 9:2
Maf NK = 9:1
As such, if we do not lynch vanTar, our possible D2 openings are those previously given for a van-Tar lynch, as well as:
7:1:2 , 8:1:1 (with CL), 8:1:1 (without CL) and 9:1:0 (overall bcs)
Now, quantitatively, we can therefore see that there is no good reason to lynch Tar today as a claimed vanilla.
Of course, my analysis has excluded the possibility of Tar being cult/mafia. My basis for this is that we are trying to determine whether we should lynch Tar purely on the basis of him having claimed vanilla. Thus, these possibilities should not come into play in determining his lynch.
The other major concern, coming from Pwayne, is the prospect of having Tar hanging round as an uncertainty. Which is more preferable, knowing that Tar is a likely cultist tomorrow, or not not having a clue who is a likely cultist? At least with Tar being claimed vanilla, we know to watch his behaviour like hawks.
All in all, I feel like I am flogging a dead horse here, but I will say it anyway: There is no good reason to lynch Tar (or any claimed vanilla) today.
Unvote, Vote: Pwayne
Unless there is some fault in my numbers, there is absolutely no pro-town basis for your stance. The non-numerical arguments you have presented justifying your position also flatly fail.-
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pwayne66 Goon
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pwayne wrote:We can argue about the odds and probabolity and the cost/gain ratios, because I can see where I may be mistaken here, but I still think my situation has better likelyhood for a positive turn out for the town.
I don't have a clue what these numbers mean, but if they say what you claim, then I am mistaken. How does this mean I am scum? Is white scum for saying:Vollkan wrote:Unless there is some fault in my numbers, there is absolutely no pro-town basis for your stance. The non-numerical arguments you have presented justifying your position also flatly fail.
How about Dr. BS (now Tar)? Is he scum for advocating the same idea I am?white wrote:Ok, Tar and Kakeng both have to die. If we've got a vig you better kill the other one of these. I'm ok with a Tar or Kakeng lynch today. Currently the bigger wagon is on Kakeng (I think?) so that's where my vote will be.
We certainly should! This lynch isn't about whether I am right or wrong, it is about a favorable outcome for the town. The numbers you have provided seem to be the odds that I am right that Tar in vanilla townie and that the cult will recruit him. What are the odds of a favorable outcome?Vollkan wrote:Of course, my analysis has excluded the possibility of Tar being cult/mafia. My basis for this is that we are trying to determine whether we should lynch Tar purely on the basis of him having claimed vanilla. Thus, these possibilities should not come into play in determining his lynch.
That's 3 question for Vollkan:
1) How does this mean I am scum?
2) Are White and Tar scum for the same reasons?
3) What are the odds of a favorable outcome?-
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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pwayne66 Goon
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Pwayne wrote:We certainly should! This lynch isn't about whether I am right or wrong, it is about a favorable outcome for the town. The numbers you have provided seem to be the odds that I am right that Tar in vanilla townie and that the cult will recruit him. What are the odds of a favorable outcome?
Actually, I understand your numbers now. Give me a minute to compute.-
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Oman NK Immune Miller Vig
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pwayne66 Goon
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vollkan The Interrogator
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You are advocating something which is patently anti-town. As of yet, you still have not dropped this stance.Pwayne wrote: 1) How does this mean I am scum?
White has not yet checked in with the increased analysing. If he adopts the same line as you, then he will set my scumdar off also (of course, this is completely redundant now because he will see the reaction you got).Pwayne wrote: 2) Are White and Tar scum for the same reasons?
As for Tar, my read on him is that he has realised how much he has stuffed up and now wants to prevent himself becoming cult. I don't think his actions are particularly scummy. Is seriously pushing your own lynch a scumtell?
Moreover, Pwayne, I don't like the fact that you try to raise the behaviour of two other people as even a partial defence.
In terms of likelihood of a "positive" outcome, I can't be bothered calculating the precise probabilities of each possibility. This effectively boils down to the fact that you are advocating lynching somebody who appears more likely to be a town player than anybody else thus far. That makes a negative outcome more likely. If we lynch vanTar, then I think 7:2:1 is the most likely outcome.Pwayne wrote: 3) What are the odds of a favorable outcome?-
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pwayne66 Goon
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Well, that leaves us here: The day of our self imposed deadline and its between me or Kakeng.
unvote
I think we need some discussion. I also advocate pushing our deadline back to thursday or Friday (our real deadline).
What I see against Kakeng is that he is lurking. Is this a good enough reason to lynch? What do we learn from his death?
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