Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[theopor_COD]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #39

Kakeng[3](theopor_COD, White, Trojan Horse)
Tarhalindur[2](pwayne66, Tarhalindur)
Flameaxe[2](vollkan, Kakeng)
pwayne66[2](curiouskarmadog, Mastermind of Sin)
Trojan Horse[1](tyhess)
White[1](Flameaxe)

Not Voting[1](Oman)

Ah okay then. To be honest I need a real good re-read of 75% of the players. However I don't want Tar lynched.

[pwayne66]

What are you trying to say here? This sentence has nothing to do with what you quoted, and it looks more like you are trying to change the subject than anything else, because you aren't responding to anything in the above quote.

I can see how it would appear that way since you have removed 80% of the quote. The other 80% does address it. I know this doesn't help your case at all but lets keep the debate honest. Your case is that I am cult and that the cult benfits from killing tar. I said the cult doesn't benefit from killing tar. How does this not address what I quoted?

Now

Yes they CAN recruit someone other than Tar. However, this is the situation I am advocating:

What does THIS have to do with what I said? Nobody has ever denied that the cult can recruit someone other than Tar. I said that the cult has no need to kill Tar (a point that seems to be the foundation of your case) and, in fact benefits more from him being alive going into day two. In what way have you addressed this serious flaw in your case?

Leave Tar alive, lynch someone who is more likely to be scum right now (you or Kakeng), cult attempts to recruit somebody

Good. Do you have a case for me to hear? As near as I can tell I have several times for somebody to present me with a better case and all I get is drama.

- Lynch Tar as a protown player so that the cult can't recruit him, cult attempts to recruit somebody

You highlighted my worst case scenerio and ignored my already stated best case scenerio, that Tar is lying and is scum. Granted my worst case senerio yeilds better results then your insistance that we either lynch a lurker or your flawed case about me.

In both situations the cult attempts to recruit somebody. However, in your scenario we lynch someone who is more likely to be town than anything else. In my scenario, I give us a chance to kill scum today. Your scenario wastes a lynch and kills off a protown players, both of which are strictly helpful to the scum.

The only legitamate comment in your whole post. Though you did leave out that in your scenerio you have no case...what so ever... so we are just as likely to lynch town, then lose Tar to the cult, and then lose a NK to the mafia. We can argue about the odds and probabolity and the cost/gain ratios, because I can see where I may be mistaken here, but I still think my situation has better likelyhood for a positive turn out for the town.


Now,thats 4 questions addressed to MoS:

1) How does this not address what I quoted?
2) What does THIS have to do with what I said?
3) In what way have you addressed this serious flaw in your case?
4) Do you have a case for me to hear?

[theopor_COD]

Pwayne - Do you think Kakeng is more/less scummy than Tarharlindur?

[pwayne66]

I have no read on Kakeng. It seems to me that his primary knock is that he is lurking and AC was lurking. I need more than that really to think that he is scum. I would say they rank evenly on my scumdar, although Tar has been more scummy in his posting than Kakeng has been in his lurking.

[theopor_COD]

And Blackstrike?

[pwayne66]

ah Blackstrike... I forgot that is who Tar was replacing... I thought that BS was genuine and misunderstood. His primary knock was saying something along the lines of "dead townies are just as good as dead scum". This never did strike me as a mastermind ploy to make all the townies kill themselves. I thought it was an unfortunate choice of words. Nothing more.

[Oman]

Okay...whoops, I completely misread pwaynes posts. I read the last 2 pages and I see what is going on. I'm with MoS

Vote Pwayne66

At the worst

Tar is recruited by the cult and he's now scum. BUT WAIT! What if, and I know this sounds weird, we let Tar live, right, as scum. Then we see who we can connect him with. As the only cultist, besides the leader, we can then find the leader! ZOMG!

The cult is my biggest fear in the game as they can get quite a large voting block. Two scum, two votes. By D3 we could have 3 cult members, even if we lynch cult everyday we're still 1 behind.

[pwayne66]

I see what is going on

I doubt that. Care to tell me what's going on instead of piggybacking on somebody else's logic?

[Oman]

Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch.

[pwayne66]

Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch.

That's what I thought...you don't have a clue. You saw a bandwagon and we all know how you feel about bandwagons...

[curiouskarmadog]

Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch.

really I am?..you still have not read crap Oman..why are you voting again?

[Oman]

Uh hu. The wagon on you is huge, it has nothing to do with the fact that I've been away for 48 hrs, got back, misread something you said and now want you (scumbum) to die.

[curiouskarmadog]

Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch.

thats really it...this entire game you have been constantly PINGing my scum dar....

unvote, vote Oman

you are jumping on a bandwagon because it looks pro-town (agreeing with MoS, indeed), but you really dont know the facts and you are trying to push false information.

[curiouskarmadog]

Uh hu. The wagon on you is huge, it has nothing to do with the fact that I've been away for 48 hrs, got back, misread something you said and now want you (scumbum) to die.

misread my ass, there is an entire page where Pwayne and I are arguing...now you are just throwing your vote around at whatever looks the most pro-town.

[Oman]

God dammit. I only read pwaynes posts on my second read (it was specific to him) and now I've read yours. I swear he should put who he quotes in his post.

This Post really threw me off, especially the last line.

I didn't even realise you were voting him.

I appologise ckd, I know nothing I can say will get rid of your angry vote on me, but I hope you understand I did a "find posts by" on Pwayne and got so damn confused.

[Oman]

Simulposted earlier:

you still have not read crap Oman..why are you voting again?

I read pwayne only, got confused.

That being said I feel happy my vote stands.

[curiouskarmadog]

this vote might be hasty,

unvote Oman

,

revote Pwayne

FoS Oman

Oman, you have been on my radar since the beginning of this game. But there is no way to prove whether this was actually a lack of reading (poor play) or jumping on a pro-town looking BW (scum play) with little reason. I suggest Oman that you read this last 5 pages and justify your vote instead of saying "I agree".

Pwayne still has my vote because he still wants to push this idea that I think is anti-town....I am interested to hear what others stand on this issue.

and please actually read the game before commenting

[vollkan]

Some numbers for fun:

It is currently 9:2:1.
(For the following analysis, let wcs = worst-case scenario, bcs = best case scenario and CL = Cult Leader)

If we lynch vanilla-Tar

Lynch van-Tar = 8:2:1
Maf NK of town = 7:2:1
--Cult recruit = 6:2:2
--No Cult recruit = 7:2:1
Maf NK of CL = 8:2:0
--Cult recruit = 7:2:1 (since the cult doesn't lose if the leader is NKed judging by the role PM examples on page 1, it is possible that the leader could get NKed tonight but successfully recruit.)
--No Cult recruit = 8:2:0

As such, with a lynch of vanTar today our possible D2 openings (assuming mafia does NK) are:
6:2:2 (wcs) , 7:2:1, (with CL), 7:2:1 (without CL) and 8:2:0 (bcs)

If we do not lynch vanilla-Tar

Mislynch = effectively the same as above, though I would venture to say that it is more likely than not that the cult will recruit vanTar, which makes the 6:2:2 and 7:2:1 (without CL) outcomes slightly more likely.

Maflynch = 9:1:1
Maf NK of town = 8:1:1
--Cult recruit = 7:1:2
--No Cult Recruit = 8:1:1
Maf NK of CL = 9:1:0
--Cult recruit = 8:1:1
--No Cult recruit = 9:1:0

CL Lynch = 9:2
Maf NK = 9:1

As such, if we do not lynch vanTar, our possible D2 openings are those previously given for a van-Tar lynch, as well as:
7:1:2 , 8:1:1 (with CL), 8:1:1 (without CL) and 9:1:0 (overall bcs)

Now, quantitatively, we can therefore see that there is no good reason to lynch Tar today as a claimed vanilla.

Of course, my analysis has excluded the possibility of Tar being cult/mafia. My basis for this is that we are trying to determine whether we should lynch Tar purely on the basis of him having claimed vanilla. Thus, these possibilities should not come into play in determining his lynch.

The other major concern, coming from Pwayne, is the prospect of having Tar hanging round as an uncertainty. Which is more preferable, knowing that Tar is a likely cultist tomorrow, or not not having a clue who is a likely cultist? At least with Tar being claimed vanilla, we know to watch his behaviour like hawks.

All in all, I feel like I am flogging a dead horse here, but I will say it anyway: There is no good reason to lynch Tar (or any claimed vanilla) today.

Unvote, Vote: Pwayne

Unless there is some fault in my numbers, there is absolutely no pro-town basis for your stance. The non-numerical arguments you have presented justifying your position also flatly fail.

[pwayne66]

We can argue about the odds and probabolity and the cost/gain ratios, because I can see where I may be mistaken here, but I still think my situation has better likelyhood for a positive turn out for the town.

Unless there is some fault in my numbers, there is absolutely no pro-town basis for your stance. The non-numerical arguments you have presented justifying your position also flatly fail.

I don't have a clue what these numbers mean, but if they say what you claim, then I am mistaken. How does this mean I am scum? Is white scum for saying:

Ok, Tar and Kakeng both have to die. If we've got a vig you better kill the other one of these. I'm ok with a Tar or Kakeng lynch today. Currently the bigger wagon is on Kakeng (I think?) so that's where my vote will be.

How about Dr. BS (now Tar)? Is he scum for advocating the same idea I am?

Of course, my analysis has excluded the possibility of Tar being cult/mafia. My basis for this is that we are trying to determine whether we should lynch Tar purely on the basis of him having claimed vanilla. Thus, these possibilities should not come into play in determining his lynch.

We certainly should! This lynch isn't about whether I am right or wrong, it is about a favorable outcome for the town. The numbers you have provided seem to be the odds that I am right that Tar in vanilla townie and that the cult will recruit him. What are the odds of a favorable outcome?


That's 3 question for Vollkan:

1) How does this mean I am scum?
2) Are White and Tar scum for the same reasons?
3) What are the odds of a favorable outcome?

[Oman]

There is a fault in Vollkan's numbers. They don't take into account if Tar is lieing, either as scum or town trying to trick the scum/cult.

[pwayne66]

We certainly should! This lynch isn't about whether I am right or wrong, it is about a favorable outcome for the town. The numbers you have provided seem to be the odds that I am right that Tar in vanilla townie and that the cult will recruit him. What are the odds of a favorable outcome?

Actually, I understand your numbers now. Give me a minute to compute.

[Oman]

EDIT: Just so that you know I am reading, I know vollkan discussed not including Tarscum/Tarcult.

[pwayne66]

Fair enough. This analysis seems accurate (though incomplete). I agree that killing Tar solely on his claimed van-townie to prevent recruitment is not as sound as I perceived it.

[vollkan]

1) How does this mean I am scum?

You are advocating something which is patently anti-town. As of yet, you still have not dropped this stance.

2) Are White and Tar scum for the same reasons?

White has not yet checked in with the increased analysing. If he adopts the same line as you, then he will set my scumdar off also (of course, this is completely redundant now because he will see the reaction you got).

As for Tar, my read on him is that he has realised how much he has stuffed up and now wants to prevent himself becoming cult. I don't think his actions are particularly scummy. Is seriously pushing your own lynch a scumtell?

Moreover, Pwayne, I don't like the fact that you try to raise the behaviour of two other people as even a partial defence.

3) What are the odds of a favorable outcome?

In terms of likelihood of a "positive" outcome, I can't be bothered calculating the precise probabilities of each possibility. This effectively boils down to the fact that you are advocating lynching somebody who appears more likely to be a town player than anybody else thus far. That makes a negative outcome more likely. If we lynch vanTar, then I think 7:2:1 is the most likely outcome.

[pwayne66]

Well, that leaves us here: The day of our self imposed deadline and its between me or Kakeng.

unvote

I think we need some discussion. I also advocate pushing our deadline back to thursday or Friday (our real deadline).

What I see against Kakeng is that he is lurking. Is this a good enough reason to lynch? What do we learn from his death?