Open 20 - Pie E7 (Game over) - before 453

[Aimee]

I don't understand your final comment. I hadn't claimed that it discounted me.

No, I meant this for Patrick - the way he was saying "Not me and Zindie together!" doesn't really discount them from being scum in any way.

I think Paradox FoSsed Ripley and Patrick because he felt they were defending Simmy from him. And I can see why he'd have felt that way, and why he would've FoSsed them.

I can't. I don't see any real reason for his FoSes, other than rather blatant OMGUS.

Aimee, you said (Post 558) that you were unlikely to vote for anybody but Zindaras today. Is this still the case, and when can we expect your vote?

I'm pretty okay to vote now, actually.

vote: Zindaras

Although it could be minorly threatening, he is the only person I would be willing to vote for today.

[Skruffs]

Interesting to note:
Patrick says ripley/aimee scum combo is possible, but doesn't help the wagon on ripley, but rther on his opartner.
Suspicious?
Zindaras, aimee, patrick, unless you make your own wagon fast OR help me with mine, 2 of you are going to lose the game.

[Skruffs]

Simulpost whoo

[Patrick]

Ripley's comments about petrick may be laying ground for wifom in the morning. Patrick/ripley pairing was first suspicion, not completely written out. I really hope all townies put a vote on someone by deadline...

What exactly do you mean by this? What WIFOM is Ripley setting up for the morning?

No, I meant this for Patrick - the way he was saying "Not me and Zindie together!" doesn't really discount them from being scum in any way.

I agree, it's the fact that we could easily have speedlynched Ripley that does.

Interesting to note:
Patrick says ripley/aimee scum combo is possible, but doesn't help the wagon on ripley, but rther on his opartner.
Suspicious?

Explain why it's suspicious then, rather than just throwing it out there. You've also said that a Ripley/Aimee scumgroup is highly possible, so by the same token, should I be suspicious of the fact that you're pushing Ripley and not Aimee?

[Ripley]

Skruffs is looking very much like scum to me. It's not just that if we were both innocent the scum would have surely have managed to lynch me at

some

point in the last howevermany days that I've had Skruffs' vote. Even now with deadline approaching, nobody has made any kind of preparatory case against me so they could vote for me without it looking odd. I thought that's what Zindaras was building up towards but it seems now not to be so. If two of Aimee/Zindaras/Patrick were scum, surely they'd take advantage of or be intending to take advantage of an innocent-on-innocent vote? Zindaras/Patrick could easily have lynched me on Wednesday. If Aimee/Patrick are scum, they are targeting Zindaras. But Patrick has already voted for Aimee. It doesn't add up. Aimee/Zindaras? How could that be? They're going after each other.

Patrick, you said (Post 593) that you don't think Aimee and Zindaras are scum together, yet you are only considering those two for your vote, a choice you're finding tough. And you've said consistently you don't believe Skruffs and I could be scum, which I think is pretty obvious to all. So really you're looking at one scum in each pair. Does it matter which pair you choose from? I feel bound at least to ask if there's a chance you'd vote Skruffs, because from my POV he's by far the most likely scum. A lot more so than Aimee or Zindaras, which I'd find very hard to call (and you say you're not finding it easy.)

Aimee, Zindaras, would either of you consider voting Skruffs? He seems to be the second choice for both of you.

Oh, and Skruffs, please don't start yelping "there goes Ripley treating Patrick as if he's cleared again" because I already explained at some length why I'm doing that. And I still believe I have to vote with Patrick to give us any chance of a town win. If Patrick/Skruffs are scum we're pretty much doomed to lose whatever I do.

[Patrick]

I'll ponder this. And in the meantime we may as well prove that we're not scum together.

[Ripley]

Absolutely.

[Patrick]

So Skruffs, you were saying?

[Patrick]

Hmm. Of course Ripley would like us to lynch Skruffs, as they're almost certainly aligned differently.

Ripley, I'm not sure I find the Skruffs/Ripley puzzle any easier than the Aimee/Zindaras one. I'm mildly suprised that you say you find Aimee/Zindaras very hard to call, as I thought you had a clear preference for lynching Zindaras. Hasn't Aimee seemed relatively cleaner to you all day?

[Ripley]

I thought I had a clear preference for Zindaras as well from the way he started off the day. I thought he was going to be following the line of "let's fling as much mud as possible at Ripley", so favored by Simenon, Skruffs and IH. (And also that whoever had that role seemed very disposed to find reasons not to post anything.) But what we've heard from him since, though not much in quantity, has been more balanced. Also, remember I'm looking at this from a "Skruffs is scum" viewpoint and Skruffs/Aimee is more convincing. Aimee has attacked Skruffs all day but when deadline comes she finds herself only able to vote for Zindaras. Same thing with Skruffs, who votes Ripley rather than his supposed prime suspect Aimee. And Aimee's contributions of late have dwindled to almost nothing and have been poor quality, and I do suspect the fact of her agreeing with almost everything I said for almost all Day 2 may have caused me to judge her more favorably than her play deserved.

So - not so clearcut for me any more.

I think your decision really has to be; is the gulf in your view between Ripley/Skruffs wider than between Zindaras/IH? If so your logical position is surely to vote Ripley/Skruffs, and I have to hope the gulf would be in my favor. I don't see how I could be doing any more at this stage to do my absolute darnedest to maximise the chance of the town winning, and approaching the position with the clear-eyed logic of a townie, whereas Skruffs is largely floundering and churning out nuggets of wisdom like "Please let it be ripley".

Of course, even if you did decide to vote Skruffs it would need one of Aimee/Zindaras to be willing to do that as well.

Out for a couple of hours then I should be around all day.

[Skruffs]

Well, aimee has voted for zindaras. Avoided the possibility of wagoning ripley... Patrick and rip did not hamme zindaras when they could, but,

Ripley, if I am scum with someone, why is nobody else (ie scumpartner) trying to overtly or non overtly.rise more suspicion of you to help out? Goes back to aimee, drawing suspicion to herself/zindaras instead. Looking at schematics, I wonder why aimee avoided me and ripley fight as well as patrick vote to vote zindaras saying that is her only target for the day.

Aimee was at top of list but if ripley Is town, scum did not take oppurtinity to push case against him. Rip pushing me/aimee scumteam instead while saying patrick wins if scum. If scum, (Prob not), patrick winds up having suspicion tomorrow. If ripley is setting up wifom for tomorrow if he gets lynched, means lynching him results in a tomorrow, means he is scum.
Aimee's refusal to vote me or him means she likely partner.

Sorry for logic, if flawed, genuine opinion.

[Ripley]

Please take a look back at the crucial page 11.

Post 263, Jordan claims doctor.

Simenon immediately unvotes and votes Paradoxombie. This struck me as strange immediately, and I said so:

I wonder if Simenon's rapid switch to vote Paradoxombie before Patrick, IH, Paradoxombie or I had even checked in, means he didn't need to wait for counterclaims because he already knew Jordan was innocent?

I'm now more than ever convinced that this was the case and that this was the single biggest blunder made by Simenon or Skruffs in this game. His prime suspect has just claimed doctor, surely an almost routine move for scum in that position. Does he ask for counterclaims? He does not. It's as if he knows Jordan is innocent and that therefore no counterclaim will be forthcoming. He unvotes and votes Paradoxombie, a player he has previously claimed to think protown, putting that player at L-1.

Interestingly, Aimee, who posted after Jordan but before Simenon, seems to have the same blind spot:

Well obviously Jordan is off the cards for today. Lynching a claimed doctor would be stupid.

I think Paradoxombie would be the best alternative. I made a massive case against him on the last page, to which he basically had no defence to. He is my preferred choice.

Not until I post (Post 268) is the possibility of counterclaims even mentioned.

Aimee and Simenon react basically in the same way: ok, that's Jordan out of the picture, let's move on to Paradoxombie. Aimee's reaction didn't really catch my attention until I reread now because she was already voting Paradoxombie and therefore didn't have to take any action following the claim. Simenon's reaction was much more noticeable because of the immediate change of vote and because, as Patrick has pointed out, he had claimed to find Paradoxombie protown.

One more thing I'd like to point in support of a Skruffs lynch is that both days I've made a commitment to be around at deadline, said in advance what I intend to do and stuck to it. Scum would absolutely hate to be trapped by any such commitment, and Simenon was very much absent at deadline on Day 1. There is no evidence of concern about this vote of his which he claimed was forced by the deadline. There is not a word of "oh, IH is now on 2 votes. I could switch. Ripley, Patrick, you're not voting currently. Which do you think is scummier, IH or Para?" Nothing. He votes, provides a very weak defence of his action in Post 278 - and leaves.

I think Patrick is right that Simenon's behavior here is a small nudge in favor of a Simenon/IH scum pair. But you can't attach too much weight to it. The problem is, if Simenon was scum with Aimee he wouldn't care which of IH or Paradoxombie was lynched, and quite likely couldn't be bothered to pretend that he did.

Oh, hello there, Skruffs. Just saw your post.

Ripley, if I am scum with someone, why is nobody else (ie scumpartner) trying to overtly or non overtly.rise more suspicion of you to help out?

Well, if it's Aimee, she'd come way too far down the road of supporting me to be able to do such a complete turnaround without attracting massive suspicion. She's established that I'm not high on Patrick's suspect list, so whose vote is she going to work on.

Zindaras

? Her prime suspect? You can't seriously be suggesting that Aimee could, with any credibility at all, have started to try and work on Zindaras to vote for me? Her obvious play would have been to wait very quietly and hope he did that all by himself.

Zindaras I thought for a while was doing precisely what you suggest, with all that harping on some tiny thing on page 2 or 3 where I linked to a game where Patrick was scum in response to a request from Aimee. If he's your scum partner I would guess that he saw that neither Patrick or Aimee looked in any way as if they could be leaned on to vote for me and that Aimee would clearly be a much easier target for today's lynch.

If Patrick is your partner I think I'm going to cry because all this effort has been for nothing. But basically he had the same problem as Aimee; he couldn't suddenly start attempting to undermine me at that stage without it looking very obvious.

[Patrick]

Aimee was at top of list but if ripley Is town, scum did not take oppurtinity to push case against him. Rip pushing me/aimee scumteam instead while saying patrick wins if scum. If scum, (Prob not), patrick winds up having suspicion tomorrow. If ripley is setting up wifom for tomorrow if he gets lynched, means lynching him results in a tomorrow, means he is scum.

Can you clarify the whole of this paragraph? It was a bit incoherent.

Despite the fact that a Patrick/Ripley scumgroup is disproven, I'd like you to explain why it's suspicious for me to go after Aimee and not Ripley, but not suspicious for you to go after Ripley and not Aimee.

Now, as far as the gamestate is concerned. I could vote Skruffs and cover for a Zindaras/Skruffs scumgroup, and the Skruffs/Aimee possibility, but that would lose if we have Aimee/Ripley. I could vote Aimee to cover Aimee/Ripley and still cover Aimee/Skruffs, but then we lose if it's Skruffs/Zindaras. There's no way to ensure safety. I will say that I find Zindaras/Ripley less likely than Skruffs/Aimee, because if it's the former then Ripley post last night suggesting I unvote makes little sense.

I still find Aimee/Ripley a very plausible possibility. Whilst Ripley's posts today make sense from his POV if he's town, they also make sense if he's scum with Aimee, because he's trying to draw people away from voting her, as well as connecting Skruffs to Aimee, which would help him if we do lynch Aimee today as scum.

Skruffs poking of me today didn't make a lot of sense to me, but I also don't see a motive for it if he's scum with Zindaras. At best he'd convince me to lynch a different townie (Ripley rather than Aimee), and at worst, he might increase my suspicion of him and his partnership. Of course, I'm not sure if I can analyse Skruffs logically. I suppose his actions do make it slightly more likely he's scum with Aimee, unless he's going to offer me a reasonable explanation pretty soon.

I'll be on most of the time up until deadline still, but can't hold off voting much longer. I want Zindaras especially weighing in on the latest posts, as that will help regardless of his alignment. I think if I had to vote now it would still be Aimee, because I really struggle to see her as town.

[Patrick]

Also, any lurking from anyone today I will regard as suspicious.

[Skruffs]

I am posting from my cell phone, hence hectic grammar.

Ripley - how close to deadline did jordan claim doctor? Claimed doctors don't get lynched, period. How long should I have waited for a counterclaim? Why should I have waited for a counterclaim? Why would a real doctor counterclaim?

You say that simenon wasn't around at deadline, which is suspicious, and you say that simenon moving his vote off a claimed doctor without waiting closer to deadline is suspicious. What if simenon knew he wouldn't be around at deadline and thus took measures to help protect a claimed doctor while he could?

And again, using someone's voting records as grounds of suspicion, is suspicious, coming from someone who's only vote day 1 was to hammer an unclaimed cop.

I am trying to be around.
I am sure of ripley, only semisure of aimee, less sure of pat/zindaras.

[Patrick]

Would you like to confirm that we are not scum together?

[Ripley]

Skruffs/Aimee does seem, increasingly, to be clicking into place as the most likely combination. The only voting that has taken place today was Simenon/Skruffs, voting for me, three times. Simenon's vote could be dismissed as some kind of over-emotional response to something or other - that is to say, it was impulsive, so there's no need to expect any rational motivation. Skruffs however has voted for me twice, calmly, and so it's reasonable to look at his motivation for doing so.

Choice of target: why me? Why not Aimee, for one thing? He claims to have been more suspicious of Aimee, but always picks me to vote for. The obvious reason is that they're scum together.

Also, if he was scum with IH/Zindaras, what would be the point in voting for me? Where was the third vote going to come from? If he's scum with Aimee this problem disappears, because IH, and then, initially, Zindaras, came across as very promising Ripley voters. Zindaras's subsequent suspect list where he has me listed only third, and his statement that he's only comfortable voting Aimee, is not what you'd have expected from his early posts, and has left Skruffs' vote effectively stranded and useless.

(Again, if he's scum with Patrick I don't think we can win, so no use dwelling on that one.)

Not also how Skruffs doesn't seem to realise this - that his vote is useless. If he were town he'd know that all three townies need to vote together and be thinking the way I was last night when I went through the logic that ended up with me needing to vote with Patrick. But Skruffs doesn't appear to be thinking this way at all. Instead we get "I really hope all townies put a vote on someone by deadline... " and "Please let it be ripley", more spurious logic and some very incoherent material - the sentence in post 610 that I replied to was pretty much the only one I understood - that sounds to me a whole lot like a scum who's floundering badly.

[Zindaras]

Vote: Aimee

Busy days, busy days.

Ripley, I'm not going to pick between you and Skruffs when I think that Aimee is scum. I'm not sure about you or Skruffs. I definitely think it's a bit overdone to say that Skruffs is my second, it's pretty close there.

[Skruffs]

Ripley, weren't you all mad at me earlier in the day for analyzing your game-personality instead of scum tells?
Did you miss patrick's vote on aimee and aimee's vote on zindaras?

Aimee, if scum, is not voting ripley because all three townies have to vote scum to win today, if scum don't bus, As has been previously mentioned.

Aimee, is scum, is avoiding bussing her buddy or being connected with him by avoiding the me/ripley thing. So I would be okay hammering her at this point. Ripley. Is. More. Of a sure thing, though.

[Ripley]

I definitely think it's a bit overdone to say that Skruffs is my second, it's pretty close there.

I was going entirely by your own list in post 591, from which I think anyone would assume that it was indeed close but that you were more suspicious of Skruffs/Simenon than of me.

Jordan claimed about 28 and a half hrs before deadline. Simenon changed his vote about 26 hrs before deadline. He posted again twice after that, both on the same day (Weds July 4th). He did not post at all on the day of the deadline. If he "knew he wouldn't be around at deadline and thus took measures to help protect a claimed doctor while he could", he should have said so. It's normal for protown players who know they can't make a deadline, or even if they're in doubt. to say so, as Patrick did for example.

Claimed doctors don't get lynched, period.

Uncounterclaimed doctors probably don't get lynched, though I bet it's happened if they sounded scummy and desperate enough. I don't think I've ever been in a game with a counterclaimed doctor but I bet they get lynched all right.

Why would a real doctor counterclaim?

Um, to get the fake claimant, with in this game also the 50% chance that they're the roleblocker, lynched?

Ripley, weren't you all mad at me earlier in the day for analyzing your game-personality instead of scum tells?
Did you miss patrick's vote on aimee and aimee's vote on zindaras?

Sorry, I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

[Skruffs]

I do like how ripley is saying my posts are incomprehensible while 'in a completely unrelated manner' defending against my points as if they were his. Own.

[Ripley]

It was Post 610 I said was incomprehensible. The stuff I replied to was in post 614. Really, Skruffs, is this the best you can do?

Where's Aimee? I'm not sure we're going to hear anything more from her or Zindaras, actually. In which case, there's no use my pursuing the case against Skruffs. There wouldn't be the votes to lynch him whatever Patrick did.

[Skruffs]

If zindaras is town and is 'done' with his vote on AImee, or if AImee is town and is 'done' with her vote on Zindaras, then Ripley can't be lynched, and they've lost us the game, unless we lynch the one of them that isn't town. Guh.

Mod : Prods on everyone?

[CrashTextDummie]

Vote Count

:

Ripley

(1):

Skruffs

Aimee

(1):

Zindaras

Zindaras

(1):

Aimee

Not voting

(2):

Ripley, Patrick

5 alive, 3 to lynch.

Deadline hits in 3 hours and 18 minutes.

Mod : Prods on everyone?

Denied. Everyone has posted today and everyone is aware of the deadline.

[Ripley]

Fabulous. Skruffs' last post takes my previous post, where I noted that if Aimee and Zindaras are done, we can no longer lynch Skruffs, and reverses it. I think he's conceded that the best way for him to try and sound protown is to repeat the observations of someone in a similar position to himself and who he knows to be protown.

Skruffs, it didn't really work too well, because your grief at the realisation that "Ripley can't be lynched" would only ring true if there had been any reason to believe up until that point that I might be lynched, which there wasn't. If you were town you would have grasped that yesterday, known your vote was wasted, and done what I did; figure out that you needed to vote with the two other townies in order for us to stand any chance, and work out the best chance of that happening. None of which you did, because you're scum.

I've assumed that you won't be lynched, because unless Zindaras or Aimee were willing to vote for anyone but the other (and they'd said they weren't) there wouldn't be enough votes, but since I know you're a better lynch than either of them I had to give it my best shot. So, if Aimee and Zindaras are done, we're now in the expected position. Patrick has to choose and I have to vote with him. Why didn't

you

see this coming until now?

I see no reason why you would expect the mod to prod two players who have posted and voted today. This request strikes me as more histrionics.