Please take a look back at the crucial page 11.
Post 263, Jordan claims doctor.
Simenon immediately unvotes and votes Paradoxombie. This struck me as strange immediately, and I said so:
Ripley wrote:I wonder if Simenon's rapid switch to vote Paradoxombie before Patrick, IH, Paradoxombie or I had even checked in, means he didn't need to wait for counterclaims because he already knew Jordan was innocent?
I'm now more than ever convinced that this was the case and that this was the single biggest blunder made by Simenon or Skruffs in this game. His prime suspect has just claimed doctor, surely an almost routine move for scum in that position. Does he ask for counterclaims? He does not. It's as if he knows Jordan is innocent and that therefore no counterclaim will be forthcoming. He unvotes and votes Paradoxombie, a player he has previously claimed to think protown, putting that player at L-1.
Interestingly, Aimee, who posted after Jordan but before Simenon, seems to have the same blind spot:
Aimee wrote:Well obviously Jordan is off the cards for today. Lynching a claimed doctor would be stupid.
I think Paradoxombie would be the best alternative. I made a massive case against him on the last page, to which he basically had no defence to. He is my preferred choice.
Not until I post (Post 268) is the possibility of counterclaims even mentioned.
Aimee and Simenon react basically in the same way: ok, that's Jordan out of the picture, let's move on to Paradoxombie. Aimee's reaction didn't really catch my attention until I reread now because she was already voting Paradoxombie and therefore didn't have to take any action following the claim. Simenon's reaction was much more noticeable because of the immediate change of vote and because, as Patrick has pointed out, he had claimed to find Paradoxombie protown.
One more thing I'd like to point in support of a Skruffs lynch is that both days I've made a commitment to be around at deadline, said in advance what I intend to do and stuck to it. Scum would absolutely hate to be trapped by any such commitment, and Simenon was very much absent at deadline on Day 1. There is no evidence of concern about this vote of his which he claimed was forced by the deadline. There is not a word of "oh, IH is now on 2 votes. I could switch. Ripley, Patrick, you're not voting currently. Which do you think is scummier, IH or Para?" Nothing. He votes, provides a very weak defence of his action in Post 278 - and leaves.
I think Patrick is right that Simenon's behavior here is a small nudge in favor of a Simenon/IH scum pair. But you can't attach too much weight to it. The problem is, if Simenon was scum with Aimee he wouldn't care which of IH or Paradoxombie was lynched, and quite likely couldn't be bothered to pretend that he did.
Oh, hello there, Skruffs. Just saw your post.
Skruffs wrote:Ripley, if I am scum with someone, why is nobody else (ie scumpartner) trying to overtly or non overtly.rise more suspicion of you to help out?
Well, if it's Aimee, she'd come way too far down the road of supporting me to be able to do such a complete turnaround without attracting massive suspicion. She's established that I'm not high on Patrick's suspect list, so whose vote is she going to work on.
Zindaras
? Her prime suspect? You can't seriously be suggesting that Aimee could, with any credibility at all, have started to try and work on Zindaras to vote for me? Her obvious play would have been to wait very quietly and hope he did that all by himself.
Zindaras I thought for a while was doing precisely what you suggest, with all that harping on some tiny thing on page 2 or 3 where I linked to a game where Patrick was scum in response to a request from Aimee. If he's your scum partner I would guess that he saw that neither Patrick or Aimee looked in any way as if they could be leaned on to vote for me and that Aimee would clearly be a much easier target for today's lynch.
If Patrick is your partner I think I'm going to cry because all this effort has been for nothing. But basically he had the same problem as Aimee; he couldn't suddenly start attempting to undermine me at that stage without it looking very obvious.