Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[distad]

I'm looking at Atticus or Gorgon.

How about yours?

[Hang 'em High]

i'd be interested to see the top 2 lynches for today from everyone.

I'll be providing mine as soon as I complete my analysis of everyone -- I've still got Gorgon, distad and you to complete. I'm heading out now so I won't be able to do any more today, but I'll have it tomorrow.

Who are your top 2 choices?

[Battle Mage]

I'm looking at Atticus or Gorgon.

How about yours?

ah yes, i have to remember to reread Atticus at some point. Obviously Gorgon is my first pick, but i'm no longer so sure about my second choice.

BM

[ChronX]

I'm on Gorgon.

I remain convinced there is ONE scum between HeH and Sonicpulsar, but too close to call which.

[Battle Mage]

I'm on Gorgon.

I remain convinced there is ONE scum between HeH and Sonicpulsar, but too close to call which.

I'd say HeH is scummier than SP.

[Gorgon]

I am no longer as certain as I was about HeH, now that he's actually posting something that looks useful ... but I do think he's being let of the hook a little too lightly.

Atticus is my second pick.

[distad]

I'm on Gorgon.

I remain convinced there is ONE scum between HeH and Sonicpulsar, but too close to call which.

I'd say HeH is scummier than SP.

QFT

[Atticus]

My time has been compromised. The analysis I promised will have to happen later. Possibly tonight. Possibly.

[Battle Mage]

right we have:

Distad- Gorgon, Atticus
Chronx-Gorgon, HeH/SP
Gorgon-HeH, Atticus
Battle Mage- Gorgon, ?

[curiouskarmadog]

BM, Chronx in that order

[Battle Mage]

ok:

Distad- Gorgon, Atticus
Chronx-Gorgon, HeH/SP
Gorgon-HeH, Atticus
Battle Mage- Gorgon, ?
CKD-BM, Chronx

[Sonicpulsar]

Perhaps I used the word retaliation incorrectly. Let me rephrase that post as

"My vote is mostly as a result of your analysis of me and the poor logic/tactic (in my eyes) you used. Upon reflection, blah blah blah".

Does that help you get past my earlier statement about not OMGUS?

Top 2:
HeH
Distad

Atticus and BM as a close seconds.

[d3sisted]

Congratulations HeH at pulling every wishy washy comment I've made in the game thus far. After 23 pages of posts, I'm fairly confident I could pull 5 quotes from anyone who's active that make them sound similar to how you've painted me (and most of mine come from obvious things changing (the fact I wasn't lurking on purpose) or new guys joining the game). At least I blatantly state these things rather than simply lurk or say nothing. Also, as you've said yourself, I try to cover my bases when I screw up on something obvious, which I'll do now.

I'd forgotten that I was near the end of the wagon on Pigg because he was refusing to defend himself and put that vote on to pressure him (lot of good that did). Within a day or so (I'm not gonna check exactly since I don't care overly much) CKD made the mason claim and I immediately retracted my vote.

I'm seeing non-committal voting from this, which I see as bad. If you're going to vote, you're going to vote the one you find most scum, and suspicion does not simply slip from the mind. It's almost like you're just voting him for the sake of voting him.

[d3sisted]

Distad, chronX as I mentioned before.

Distad- Gorgon, Atticus
Chronx-Gorgon, HeH/SP
Gorgon-HeH, Atticus
Battle Mage- Gorgon, ?
CKD-BM, Chronx
Sonicpulsar: HeH, Distad
D3sisted: distad, chronX

[Atticus]

Picks - HeH, Gorgon

[Atticus]

Analysis: These are my interpretations of his posts, whether I misrepresent or not is not my problem. This is just my mental dialogue while reading his posts. Numbers may or may not be wacky.

First post: comments on nightkill. This is a very general scumtell which vvery rarely proves anything on its own.

Now then, in his fourth post he contradicts HeH by saying that =confused= is a girl, and get this, he checked her profile. Why this makes so much sense to me, I know not. But to me, I see that he wants to correct HeH, and manages to say how he knows. Why would he have checked? Sure, he could have been just curious, but perhaps he was looking for a good kill candidate.

His seventh post, he agrees that certains things said about him were true, and speculates on the possibility of a back-up doc, while as a newb, you could not expect him to know that speculating on power roles is a scum-tell (especially on day 1) but he may have been looking for information on threats.

In his tenth post he agrees with BM as an excuse to change his vote.

Eleventh post, he asks for prods.

His posts 12-18 give next to no game content, but that was a content lacking time.

32nd post, lurker vote.

34th post is another lurker vote, but actually more like a pressure on d3sisted.

After this I started getting bored and skipped to the end.

36; Upset at people speculating power-roles, but decides to ask about them anyway.

Plays pretty sensibly through his 57th post as I see it.

58th comes in to speculate again on nightkill, and expresses that he knows it is a scumtell.

65th he gives a list of his candidates of which two were for lurking. (I realise that that is why I suspect many people also, yes) In post 73 they are the same people.

Post 69 believes that he has not played too townie and in the same post he asks for way to improve his play.

His 70th gives an opinion that Atticus is HeH's partner.

---

Not much actually. Huh. Never mind, Gorgon. My suspicion is away from you for now.

[Atticus]

Picks HeH,

Gorgon

ChronX

[theopor_COD]

I'll whack a vote-count up soon.

[Hang 'em High]

distad

. He was vote hopping like crazy early in day 1 and some people didn't like it. Personally, I don't have a problem with it -- to me his votes seemed designed to pressure people a bit and generate discussion, which is particularly important in a speed game. I like his play overall. Despite the fact that he's been regularly coming after me, the way he goes about pressuring me (and others) seems reasonable. He points out specific concerns he has and backs them up with a vote. If he likes the explanation he moves on, if not he presses the attack. He actually seems to listen to and try and understand people's response.

Sonicpulsar has mentioned that he finds distad scummy. He summarizes his case here:

As for Distad, ever since the end of Day 1, I've been getting this vibe that Distad is trying just a bit too hard to appear protown. I'm not entirely sure I can quote a post illustrating it, but I get an overall ungenuine feeling from his posts. As was stated a few pages ago, he was wishy washy toward the end of Day 1 but I don't read that as too much of a scumtell. But, as I've stated before, I seem to be a vast minority on this.

Personally, I don't really see it. Distad has appeared protown to me, but I can't make the leap to say that means he's scum -- too WIFOMish. I don't have an issue with his end of day 1 voting pattern -- here was his defense:

It's not being wishy washy. Look at that sequence of events.

D3 was acting very suspicious. I clearly wasn't the only person thinking that.

You (Pigg) come out with an out-of-nowhere comment/vote. It was ridiculously dirty. Still, I didn't vote for you(Pigg). I unvoted from D3 until I could figure out what was going on.

CKD makes the mason claim. I move my vote back to D3 where it had been prior to the chaos.

I did not jump wagons. I simply backed up to figure out what was going on.

ChronX flopped. Gorgon flopped. I did not.

And amusingly, I noticed the gender change and thought I had totally missed it before.

To me this is entirely reasonable.

Conclusion: He seems pretty pro-town to me. I don't see anything he's done that strikes me as scummy. Unless something new comes to light, I don't think he's the play for today.

[theopor_COD]

Votecount at last: I do apologise - Where's SPAG when you need a backup mod. p.s Next Game I run will be a large game so I'll be looking for a backup if anyone's keen.

Gorgon 2 - BM, ChronX
Hang em High 2 - Sonicpulsar, Gorgon
Atticus 1 - Hang em High
BM 1 - Curiouskarmadog


Deadline is in 2 days, approx 54 hours. 5 to lynch.

[Hang 'em High]

Battle Mage

. Let me start off by saying that I entered this analysis with the impression BM was town, although I had been getting some bad vibes from him lately. I tried to put aside any preconceived impressions I had when starting this analysis. Here is what I found.

First, BM is the king of hyperbole. A few examples:

However, on the up side, i am very impressed with what you seem to found with regard to Desisted.

The meta-gaming with regard to Confused, was VERY useful.

Personally, this is one of the most informative early game stages i've experienced, and we have alot of potential to use this stuff later on.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

He definitely has a tendency to exaggerate: "very impressed", "VERY userful", "the most informative", "alot of potential", "totally beyond suspicion". At first I didn't like this, since it appears to me he is making more of something than is reasonable. However, I've come to the conclusion that it's just his style and probably doesn't mean anything. He comes across as very confident and this fits into that pattern.

I find his postings to be kind of hard to follow at times -- they come off as very "stream of consciousness" and scattered. Is OMGUSsy at times -- he tends to attack people who attack him. He even admits to it:

yeh, i'm an OMGUSsy newb at times. Get used to it.

I don't think this is scummy, but it might make me put a little less stock in some of his arguments when he is counterattacking someone.

He's not always consistent with his views. For example, when discussing the N0 kill he says:

and i agree with HeH that i was expecting me to be the target.

But then later he votes for me on that basis, saying:

However, you are using the WIFOM argument, that i have not been NKed, as a reason to kill me, which is inherently scummy.

Meanwhile, I did no such thing -- I didn't vote for him or FoS him. I merely said his survival was a little suspicious. I do think he backtracked a little here -- at first he agreed with my take and then he later voted me for the same reason. Even though I don't like this, I'm again thinking it's a playstyle thing. He seems hyperaggressive and OMGUSsy when people raise points against him.

Another example of this was his argument with CKD over BM's call for a cop claim. When CKD attacked him, BM responded very aggressively:

I'm finding it hard to keep making excuses for you CKD. If you continue this erratic and opportunistic behaviour, its going to be very tough for me to keep my vote off you.

I read this as a simple threat: "keep pressuring me and I'll vote for you". This is again something I don't like, but it fits into BM's behavior and could just be a play style thing.

Boy this is dragging out. Sorry for making this so long, but I'm really trying to get a read on BM. His play style is difficult for me to figure out and I'm trying to be fair. Try to bear with me -- I know it's tedious. I'm now going to move on to the two most important things (IMO) about BM.

First is his pushing for a cop claim. Here's the post:

I think, if the cop can either prove or disprove the mason-claim, he should come forward. Obviously if he cant, he should stay hidden until he can. Of course, it would mean losing the Cop, but, in killing the Cop, the scum would clear 2 people from our suspect list. I think its worth it.

At first I didn't like this, but on reread I don't think it's a ridiculous point of view. After further discussion, he amended his view in two different posts by stating:

Post 431 by Chronx deserves comment, because it raises the possibility of one of the claimed masons being a Godfather (though i had mentioned mafia power roles, i hadnt considered this aspect in detail). As such, it might not be wise for a cop claim now, unless the player in question feels they should (this is all assuming that we have a cop). Until we see what the scum are listed as, we cant really evaluate this more.

wtf? is it impossible for someone to change their mind around here?
I thought a cop claim was a good idea-then when Chronx made his point about a GF, i realised i was wrong.
IS THAT OK?

Makes sense to me. After hearing ChronX's strong argument against the cop claiming, BM changed his mind. I think that's reasonable. While it's possible he is scum who was trying to out the cop, it seems more likely to me that he at first thought a claim would be good if it could clear or indict the masons and that he later changed his mind. Overall, I don't find this chain of events problematic.

The final big thing I want to look at about BM is his case against Gorgon. However, since I haven't reviewed Gorgon yet and this analysis is too damned long already, I'm going to hold off for now. Gorgon is the last person I have to review and I'll do so in a little while. I'll comment on Battle Mage's case in that review.

Conclusion: I find Battle Mage very hard to read. In isolation I find some of his posts to be overly defensive and hyperaggressive, but taken as a whole that seems to be his play style. I don't like that style of play, but that's just personal preference and in the overall context I can't say I find his posts scummy. Going in I thought his cop claim request was yucky, but on further consideration I don't find it really bad. Although I admit he's tough to get a handle on, overall I'm putting him more on the pro-town side. I reserve the right to modify this opinion once I've completed my analysis of Gorgon and BM's case against him.

[Battle Mage]

ooh, a post dedicated to me. How incredible.
^ probably construed as hyperbole. rofl.

I hadnt actually noticed that i get a little over-excited sometimes. However i stand by every one of those comments which you deemed to be exaggerations.

I agree with you about the OMGUSsy point. Of course, in another game atm, i'm about to be lynched for doing the opposite of OMGUS-attacking people NOT on my wagon. As Chronx said, its all down to interpretation.

On the other hand, your example of alleged inconsistency is wrong. I agreed with your sentiment about my survival being strange, but i still found it rather scummy to suggest it. Obviously i can not really set up a lynch on myself, but i felt your comments might have had a hidden agenda-whilst still matching my own genuine views.
This is definitely not an example of backtracking. :p

I concede the comment about my rant at CKD. It does agitate me when i see someone who is probably town, doing so much to hurt the town. If someone reaches a certain point of detrimentalness, they can be worth lynching anyway, assuming there are no totally obvious alternatives. We pretty much have to lynch CKD or Pigg tomorrow if neither are dead, and my threat was to some extent honest, though of course it was really meant as a warning.

Other than that, i think your analysis here is very strong, and fair. Protown points for giving me a decent hearing, but ofc, that doesnt mean you get a free pass from me.

Will post more later,

BM

Battle Mage

. Let me start off by saying that I entered this analysis with the impression BM was town, although I had been getting some bad vibes from him lately. I tried to put aside any preconceived impressions I had when starting this analysis. Here is what I found.

First, BM is the king of hyperbole. A few examples:

However, on the up side, i am very impressed with what you seem to found with regard to Desisted.

The meta-gaming with regard to Confused, was VERY useful.

Personally, this is one of the most informative early game stages i've experienced, and we have alot of potential to use this stuff later on.

If i die tonight, the following people should be totally beyond suspicion:
Distad, Chronx, SonicPulsar.

He definitely has a tendency to exaggerate: "very impressed", "VERY userful", "the most informative", "alot of potential", "totally beyond suspicion". At first I didn't like this, since it appears to me he is making more of something than is reasonable. However, I've come to the conclusion that it's just his style and probably doesn't mean anything. He comes across as very confident and this fits into that pattern.

I find his postings to be kind of hard to follow at times -- they come off as very "stream of consciousness" and scattered. Is OMGUSsy at times -- he tends to attack people who attack him. He even admits to it:

yeh, i'm an OMGUSsy newb at times. Get used to it.

I don't think this is scummy, but it might make me put a little less stock in some of his arguments when he is counterattacking someone.

He's not always consistent with his views. For example, when discussing the N0 kill he says:

and i agree with HeH that i was expecting me to be the target.

But then later he votes for me on that basis, saying:

However, you are using the WIFOM argument, that i have not been NKed, as a reason to kill me, which is inherently scummy.

Meanwhile, I did no such thing -- I didn't vote for him or FoS him. I merely said his survival was a little suspicious. I do think he backtracked a little here -- at first he agreed with my take and then he later voted me for the same reason. Even though I don't like this, I'm again thinking it's a playstyle thing. He seems hyperaggressive and OMGUSsy when people raise points against him.

Another example of this was his argument with CKD over BM's call for a cop claim. When CKD attacked him, BM responded very aggressively:

I'm finding it hard to keep making excuses for you CKD. If you continue this erratic and opportunistic behaviour, its going to be very tough for me to keep my vote off you.

I read this as a simple threat: "keep pressuring me and I'll vote for you". This is again something I don't like, but it fits into BM's behavior and could just be a play style thing.

Boy this is dragging out. Sorry for making this so long, but I'm really trying to get a read on BM. His play style is difficult for me to figure out and I'm trying to be fair. Try to bear with me -- I know it's tedious. I'm now going to move on to the two most important things (IMO) about BM.

First is his pushing for a cop claim. Here's the post:

I think, if the cop can either prove or disprove the mason-claim, he should come forward. Obviously if he cant, he should stay hidden until he can. Of course, it would mean losing the Cop, but, in killing the Cop, the scum would clear 2 people from our suspect list. I think its worth it.

At first I didn't like this, but on reread I don't think it's a ridiculous point of view. After further discussion, he amended his view in two different posts by stating:

Post 431 by Chronx deserves comment, because it raises the possibility of one of the claimed masons being a Godfather (though i had mentioned mafia power roles, i hadnt considered this aspect in detail). As such, it might not be wise for a cop claim now, unless the player in question feels they should (this is all assuming that we have a cop). Until we see what the scum are listed as, we cant really evaluate this more.

wtf? is it impossible for someone to change their mind around here?
I thought a cop claim was a good idea-then when Chronx made his point about a GF, i realised i was wrong.
IS THAT OK?

Makes sense to me. After hearing ChronX's strong argument against the cop claiming, BM changed his mind. I think that's reasonable. While it's possible he is scum who was trying to out the cop, it seems more likely to me that he at first thought a claim would be good if it could clear or indict the masons and that he later changed his mind. Overall, I don't find this chain of events problematic.

The final big thing I want to look at about BM is his case against Gorgon. However, since I haven't reviewed Gorgon yet and this analysis is too damned long already, I'm going to hold off for now. Gorgon is the last person I have to review and I'll do so in a little while. I'll comment on Battle Mage's case in that review.

Conclusion: I find Battle Mage very hard to read. In isolation I find some of his posts to be overly defensive and hyperaggressive, but taken as a whole that seems to be his play style. I don't like that style of play, but that's just personal preference and in the overall context I can't say I find his posts scummy. Going in I thought his cop claim request was yucky, but on further consideration I don't find it really bad. Although I admit he's tough to get a handle on, overall I'm putting him more on the pro-town side. I reserve the right to modify this opinion once I've completed my analysis of Gorgon and BM's case against him.

[curiouskarmadog]

have to lynch Pigg or CKD tomorrow, huh? why is that..assuming we dont hit scum today, we wont be at lylo, so why? why do you keep talking about lynching the masons? I guess you just provided the mafia an excuse not to hit to kill us tonight...you are so scum..

how about this...We lynch you today, if I am wrong that you are scum, everyone can lynch me tomorrow (hell I wont even argue and will place the first vote on myself)...you have my word.

[Hang 'em High]

Gorgon

. Has a tendency to suck up to people, particularly Battle Mage. But at the same time, he went after Battle Mage quite a bit in the early going. Since it seems to me that BM tends to react harshly to those targeting him, this might explain why BM has been pushing for a Gorgon lynch. Later, Gorgon backed down from BM although his reasons for doing so seem sound.

I don't like this post:

I don't know ... HeH's post that distad quotes immediately follows BM's post where he says:

my reason for asking about Confused, was simply that in a game like this, he seems a peculiar N0 kill, unless there was perhaps a grudge involved, or somebody had played with him before, and knew him to be a potent player.

So following this up with some research into this issue seems like a natural thing to do to me. Anyway, it seemed natural to me at the time.

Also, if HeH is scum, bringing up the NK ponderings again, and with such an elaborate theory, seems like a pretty reckless gambit at this point ... it would make more sense to me to just lay low and let the time tick away, given that we're on a tight deadline.

That said, we seriously need a bandwagon to get things moving, IMO, so ...

Unvote: Mr.PiGG

Vote: HeH

Plus, the fact that HeH was the first to mention suspicion against BM for having survived N0 is actually an interesting point to note ...

Not so much for the fact that he targeted me as for the fact that he states a few reasons why he thinks my actions make sense... and then votes me anyway. It's one thing to vote for me if you think I'm scummy, but to state my actions are justified and then hop on the bandwagon anyway doesn't sit well with me. Later he even said the following:

I felt that the bandwagon on HeH was weak all along and just waiting to derail ... but maybe because I was never that sold on HeH to begin with.

This makes me wonder if he is scum trying to appear reluctant to join a bandwagon while still climbing on board. Or he could just be an unsure townie who is reluctant to commit. It could go either way, but it does give me pause.

He pushed to go after lurkers, something with which I agree. He was attacked for this post:

Okay, I'm ready to vote again. If the next bandwagon is going to be an anti-lurker wagon, it makes sense to add to the vote that's already out there.

Vote: Sonicpulsar

But I don't really have a problem with it. I agree with his defense, which was:

I already said I was interested in a wagon on a lurker, and I joined one. I got tired of waiting for other people to show up and decided to vote.

I think he made a good observation here:

SP, I'm not voting for you, but d3sisted. The only one voting for you right now is HeH. Are you paying attention at all? You seem to be overly concerned about defending yourself, as opposed to actually being in this game and trying to figure out what's going on.

This struck me as right on target, particularly after Sonicpulsar's response to my recent analysis.

I found the following posts a little ironic, since he called out Battle Mage and Mr.PiGG for the same thing Gorgon did to me earlier:

3. The only thing that has been directed at me in particular recently from what i can see, is the accusation from Gorgon that i am 'following Chronx blindly', by voting for the same person. I need to reread, but Chronx gives me protown vibes, and his vote made sense to me. We need a lynch soon, and BWing seemed like a good idea at the time.

Well, it was just that you didn't say anything about your own feelings towards ckd, just basically that you agreed with ChronX, so I found it a little odd that you would bandwagon with no explanation beyond that. I do agree that bandwagons are a must, though.

I've thought about it.

Unvote

Vote: MR.PiGG

At least he's more likely than d3sisted to be around to defend himself/claim.

Also, I very much did not like him mindlessly getting on the d3sisted bandwagon like that.

Near the end of day 1 when I posted that d3sisted was posting elsewhere but not here, he didn't take me at my word but went and verified my statement. I like that.

Now that I've gone through all Gorgon's posts, I'm going to quote Battle Mage's post where he summarizes the case against Gorgon and post my comments in bold within the quote:

HonoraryHitchhiker/Gorgon. Again, no posts from the original player to analyse. Onto Gorgon then. His first post in the game was quite scummy, for reasons already said. Scum often comment on NK’s in a bid to make themselves look more protown.

Eh, I don't know if this mean much.

His posts about me possibly come under the category of sucking-up, but to be fair, Gorgon appeared genuine here. He managed to back up his statements which is a good sign.
In his post 3, he again makes a game related inference, but instead of being confident about it, he asks me to back him up. In this post he also comments that the discussion should halt while we wait for inactives to show up.
3 RL hours later, and he has posted again, this time with a BW vote on D3sisted. His post 6, seems a bit concerned, at the possibility of another protection role. Gorgon certainly exhibits some strong confidence issues. His post 8 is a fantastic example. Not only is everything he says followed by an attempt to fish for approval, but he also changes his mind infinite times in each post.

This is true.

Again, Gorgon makes some protownish posts with regard to the town needing to lynch, which gives me a good vibe about him.

Eh, those protownish posts don't mean anything to me -- they're kind of generic comments that don't really advance the conversation. I don't think it's bad, but I don't think it indicates towniness either.

On the other hand, I dislike his way of getting everyone else to do the work for him, by pressurising others to post content, and not leading by example.

I don't totally agree with this. He does pressure other people to post content, but he does post some content of his own as well.

Post 18 stinks of informed minorityness,

I don't see this at all

and to some extent, shows the same paranoia exhibited by Chronx-only more nervous in its presentation. I’m not exactly sure what to think about it.
Lol, I challenge anyone to read through Gorgons posts, and count the times that he changes his opinion on me. Every post I seem to go from scummy-townish-scummy-townish. Rofl.

I agree with this.

I haven’t analysed SonicPulsar atall yet, so post 25 by Gorgon could be interesting later. Post 31 is very bad. I think ive already commented on this.
On the other hand, he does seem confident about his own ability, as in the next post, he challenges me to pressure him. Could be a scumbags jerk-reaction, but more likely, he simply doesn’t think he has done anything wrong (null tell).
In post 33, he legitimately accuses me of following Chronx blindly. I don’t understand the last commented in this post, which appears to be directed at me.
Explanation needed I think.
Rofl. He also thinks that HeH’s post was a power-role breadcrumb. Boy, I hope this guy is scum. Lol
Post 42 is another good example of Gorgon trying to stay in everyone’s good books, and let us all argue the day away. Non-commital is the word I’d use.
Post 46 is interesting, as it’s the second time I’ve seen him use the term ‘BM has an ace up his sleeve’. I think he may be over-estimating me a little here. Lol
Post 53. The most recent post by Gorgon, and another absolute corker. His last post is a classic example of scum being non-commital, trying to look protown, and generally, avoid attention.

Verdict: Probably Scum

I think Gorgon is a great play for today. He has been consistently scummy looking, and i think his lynch will tell us alot.

Vote: Gorgon

Conclusion: Gorgon has made some good posts and some scummy ones. His play and opinions have been somewhat inconsistent. Based on my own analysis, I'd lean slightly toward scum. As for Battle Mage's case, I'd say some of it is solid and some of it is reaching.

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry for the ridiculously lengthy analysis. But I wanted to give everyone an in-depth look and it just came out that way.

anyway, here is a real short summary of all my analyses. I'm suspicious about the claimed masons (Curiouskarmadog and d3sisted II), but I don't think they're the play today. I categorize the remaining 6 as follows:

Likely town: ChronX and distad
Leaning town: Battle Mage
Possible scum: Sonicpulsar, Atticus and Gorgon

The last 3 are pretty equal in my book. If I had to pick the top 2, I'd go with Atticus and Gorgon.