Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[d3sisted]

You may not necessarily have known, but mafia did know that both d3sisted I and Mr.Pigg were town. It didn't matter to them which wagon built.

[curiouskarmadog]

You may not necessarily have known, but mafia did know that both d3sisted I and Mr.Pigg were town. It didn't matter to them which wagon built.

I understand your point...my point was that if I was just a plain vanilla town (without any knowledge) I would have been on that bandwagon in a heart beat..

also, what are your thoughts on BM?

[Battle Mage]

Here's the end-of-D1 vote analysis I promised...

Player: vote

Gorgon: d3sisted, MrPigg, unvote
Distad: MrPigg, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted
Sonicpulsar: MrPigg, unvote, d3sisted
ChronX: d3sisted, MrPigg
Atticus: d3sisted
HeH: d3sisted
BM: Gorgon

From that, I'm seeing Distad, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar as possible scum (in that order).

Another point of interest is ChronX's most recent vote on Gorgon. By my count, that is the fourth following/BW vote he has cast this game. That exceptionally suspic if you ask me.

FoS: distad, ChronX

Because I unvoted? That's crazy. You(1) acted very suspicious through most of D1 and then your(2) predecessor had been acting weird/lurking before throwing out a HUGE curveball.

This is just OMGUS.

It's called wishy-washy. You should know this.

@BM: Those are all the votes cast near the end of the day. Basically I was looking at who jumped back and forth between wagons as the focus shifted between me and Mr.Pigg.

That actually.... makes a fair bit of sense.

[theopor_COD]

BM have you undergone a gender operation?

[Battle Mage]

BM have you undergone a gender operation?

is it appropriate for the moderator to ask game-relevant questions of a player, in the game thread?

And no, i'm still male. I'm only female in Lost Boys Mafia. lol

[theopor_COD]

How is it game relevant here? I was curious. I'll dissapear again.

p.s If you want anyone prodded shout.

[Battle Mage]

How is it game relevant here? I was curious. I'll dissapear again.

p.s If you want anyone prodded shout.

lol im kidding dude. Even so, if i was scum and planning some incredibly elaborate scheme, i'd be furious right now.
Anyway, its kinda nice to talk to someone who i KNOW isnt scum.

and could you please prod HeH, as he needs to answer the question i sort of asked in post 518.

thanks dude.

[distad]

It's not being wishy washy. Look at that sequence of events.

D3 was acting very suspicious. I clearly wasn't the only person thinking that.

You (Pigg) come out with an out-of-nowhere comment/vote. It was ridiculously dirty. Still, I didn't vote for you(Pigg). I unvoted from D3 until I could figure out what was going on.

CKD makes the mason claim. I move my vote back to D3 where it had been prior to the chaos.

I did not jump wagons. I simply backed up to figure out what was going on.

ChronX flopped. Gorgon flopped. I did not.

And amusingly, I noticed the gender change and thought I had totally missed it before.

[theopor_COD]

HeH smited.

[d3sisted]

d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted

is the textbook definition of wishy-washy.

[Atticus]

Atticus, if you're seriously going to go with things you said back at post 172, I'll have to re-examine your play.

It wasn't my plan, I found Gorgon the scummiest, yes, I'll go do some looking up of my own later today. I had taken a stance on who I thought of everyone was most likely to be scum. Until I do some analysis (may not be posted fully) I'll

unvote.

[distad]

d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted

is the textbook definition of wishy-washy.

Unless the circumstances of the day made me uncomfortable with the vote.

[d3sisted]

It doesn't matter what justification you have for it. Wishy-washy is wishy-washy.

[distad]

Okay... just for you, d3, I looked up wishy-washy in the dictionary. It says "lacking in determination".

Fine. I agree. I stand by all of the moves, but yes, it was certainly wishy-washy conviction.

[d3sisted]

Thank you.

[Sonicpulsar]

Here's the end-of-D1 vote analysis I promised...

Player: vote

Gorgon: d3sisted, MrPigg, unvote
Distad: MrPigg, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted
Sonicpulsar: MrPigg, unvote, d3sisted
ChronX: d3sisted, MrPigg
Atticus: d3sisted
HeH: d3sisted
BM: Gorgon

From that, I'm seeing Distad, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar as possible scum (in that order).

Another point of interest is ChronX's most recent vote on Gorgon. By my count, that is the fourth following/BW vote he has cast this game. That exceptionally suspic if you ask me.

FoS: distad, ChronX

My original vote on Pigg was purely random (on page 1 I believe). Just thought I'd point that out.

[d3sisted]

Uh huh. Then you voted Pigg again later in the day.

[Gorgon]

ChronX, your reasons for voting me are mostly silly. Allow me to rebuff.

On Day 1 he was bandwagon crazy, voting BM (random), then d3sis, Mr Pigg, Heh for the specifically stated intention of a bandwagon even though he said in the same post he was pretty sure he wasn't scum, SonicP, d3sis, Mr Pigg and ultimately...didn't have a vote registered at the deadline.

Name me someone who didn't bandwagon yesterday yet bandwagons today. Seems to me like I wasn't doing things differently from others yesterday ... and note that I didn't really start bandwagoning until very late in the day, when the (real) deadline was looming, and Raffles was encouraging bandwagons; something I took to heart. Today, things have been slower, probably because the deadline hasn't been close. Perhaps this will change now.

And yes, I wasn't voting when the deadline hit - the reason? I would have voted for d3sisted, but he had enough votes already. I saw no point in risking an early hammer when he already had enough votes for a deadline lynch. I thought he was at 4 votes when I said I wouldn't vote for him, although I supported his lynch; turns out he was up to 5 votes then. Would you have been happier if I had hammered before the deadline?

Today, he has gone 180 on HeH, pressuring him, and yet hasn't seen fit to vote yet.

Reading over day 1, seeing what HeH has been posting today, and just thinking things through has led me to change my mind about him. Is changing your mind scummy now? I am, however, guilty of not voting yet (this applies to others as well, though), although I'm not sure what that's supposed to prove. Let's rectify that, now that the deadline is approaching.

Vote: Hang 'em High

I still think he's the best shot. I have yet to see anything from him to convince me otherwise.

His post 30, he declares himself a newbie as a way to excuse his erratic behavior, but he sure doesn't talk like a newbie since that post. He uses a lot of jargon, and he has several posts where he says things like "I was hoping no one would go down this path" or "This is surprising!".

I've never talked like a newbie. I know all the jargon and the principles of this game, from reading old games. What I don't have is much experience

playing

the game. Also note that is was not 'erratic behaviour' that I was attributing to my inexperience (as I believe my behaviour has not been erratic), but lack of confidence. I have taken a conscious decision to rectify this, and I hope it's working.

Truth to tell, ChronX, I think you need to read this game over a little better.

[Hang 'em High]

Sorry for the LA lately -- just when I thought life was going to finally get less crazy, I spent Saturday in the hospital with my 3 year old (she is fine) and Sunday we had a small electrical fire (thankfully nothing major). Luckily things are looking up and I am back and ready to go again. I'm catching up now and will definitely post later today. I'll also be more active going forward.

[distad]

HeH - As far as I'm concerned, take your time. Those are some pretty big RL issues to worry about. I know we're under a deadline, but know the priorities.

Good luck.

[Battle Mage]

I await an answer to this question:

HeH-did you think i was protown yesterday, or did you change your mind after seeing the events at the end of day/overnight?

[Hang 'em High]

HeH - As far as I'm concerned, take your time. Those are some pretty big RL issues to worry about. I know we're under a deadline, but know the priorities.

Good luck.

Thanks for the concern. Luckily everything turned out to be minor in the end -- but it was a bit hectic this weekend. Now that all the real life nonsense is clearing up, I'm back to concentrating on what's important -- mafia. I've completed my reread but it took a lot longer than I thought. I won't have time to address everything tonight, but I'll start doing so in bits and pieces. First, I'll answer BM's query.

I await an answer to this question:

HeH-did you think i was protown yesterday, or did you change your mind after seeing the events at the end of day/overnight?

I spent most of yesterday thinking you were likely protown. Nothing specific, but you seemed to be legitimately scum-hunting. I don't know how to read your reluctance to join the d3sisted bandwagon yesterday. You could be a townie who simply thought d3sisted was innocent or you could be a scum who wanted to stay off a townie bandwagon that was going to succeed without you. I really don't know what to think about that. Overall, at the start of day 2 I was still leaning slightly to you being town. During my latest reread, however, I'm less sure you are innocent. Despite your explanation, I thought you were rolefishing for the Cop.

First I'm going to go through and answer the questions that were directed at me over the last few days and then I'm going to put together my suspect list and make a vote. I won't get it all done tonight, but I'm going to keep plugging away.

[Battle Mage]

interesting.

[Hang 'em High]

Thought I should respond to this post. My comments are in bold within the quote.

Post 0: Starts off by expressing frustration over having lost the Doc; supposedly a scumtell, but I think this can be uttered by town and scum alike. Perhaps experienced players avoid this, but I think it's a natural thing to do. A 'null-tell' in my eyes, if you will.

Post 2: Follows up BM's query about =Confused= with a FOS against d3sisted because 'it's fair to say he was impressed with =Confused='s game and might consider him a threat.' Also, it's interesting to note that HeH sees NK-ing players who might be a threat as a viable scum strategy. Folllows this up with saying "I thought Battle Mage might be the target tonight, since he appears to be the most experiened player here. The fact that he survived night 0 makes me a little suspicious."

Post 4: Queries BM as to why he thinks he's scummy; sounds reasonable.

Post 5: Corrects BM's overstatement of his words; also reasonable.

Post 7: A long post describing his NK ponderings, and stresses that it's a little suspicious that BM survived N0.

Post 10: Admits that his NK arguments are weak, and that he was doing this in response to other people's questions/comments (only BM I think, although HeH uses the plural).

Post 13: Casts suspicion on Antipathy and SurveySays for lurking, an easy way out? (Although I'm very guilty of picking on lurkers myself, with horrid results so far). Dismisses this at the end of his post, though.

I plead guilty to attacking lurkers. I think lurkers are more likely to be scum. Certainly scum can be active and townies can be lurky, but overall I think townies are better served trying to dig up information while scum are better served staying under the radar. It's not perfect, of course, but it is a slight indication IMO.

Post 17: Puts forth his 'BM is scum who set up the =Confused=/d3sisted trap against me' theory. Again, admits this is weak.

Post 19: His long defensive post, which Raffles picked apart. Reiterates his theories and the reasoning behind them, and then there is this:

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today.

As Raffles pointed out, this can easily be seen as WIFOM; deliberately acting in a way one thinks scum are unlikely to act and then, when under threat, pointing this out. I bought this defense because I was thinking along the same lines, that scum would be unlikely to act this way, but now I'm not so sure. Seeing that d3sisted surprised me quite a bit, it seems that it might be hard to find scum from the way that 'scum would be likely to act' in a game like this.

I agree that my argument could be WIFOM, but it's a matter of probabilities. A scum might be aggressive, but I think it would be overly risky to do so in a speed game. It's not definitive, but I think an aggressive player is more likely to be townie. Yes, a scum could be aggressive and then make the argument you outline, but I think it would be better to simply not draw so much attention in the first place.

Post 20: Asks us to start with the assumption that he's town, not for the last time. Warns that 'anybody who tries to deflect my lynch is most likely not scum since scum would certainly not say anything that might derail the bandwagon against me' ... could be a desperate measure to get people off his case so they won't look scummy. Ends this with a very reasonable question though: Why did ckd move away from HeH and d3sisted as suspects?

Post 21: Agrees that lurkers need to be looked at. Fair enough.

Post 22: Votes SP as a lurker, quoting SP himself; this is the post that made me unhappy, as made infamous by now. A dead issue now, though. But I do find it odd that he needed to quote those comments of SP to vote for him.

I understand why you were unhappy with my post -- all I can say is I honestly did not consider that a town power role would breadcrumb that fact. I still don't understand why someone would do so.

Post 23: Misunderstands (I think) d3sisted, which is not strange considering how d3sisted stated this particular case of his.

Post 24: Responds to Raffles; explains that he still thinks it's better for scum to lie low in a speed game.

Post 25: Responds to my outburst about the possible breadcrumbing; explains. Fair enough. Suggests that SP might have been setting up a false claim; casting suspicion on SP?

Post 27/28: Responds to SP about the breadcrumbing; nothing lucrative here.

Post 29: Repeats that lurking is a valid scum strategy, asks SP an interesting question: "@Sonicpulsar: Since you know lurking might be viewed as scummy, why weren't you been more active before you received votes?"

Post 31: Votes d3sisted to pressure him and hear from him before he goes away.

Post 32: A very interesting post. Here he comes up with the theory that d3isted made himself scarce, to avoid being lynched. I bought into this, but now I see that although the reason that d3isted vanished was so he wouldn't get lynched, it was obviously not because he was scum. I think this is the post that ultimately sealed d3sisted's fate.

I absolutely pushed hard for d3sisted's lynch because I though his vanishing act was extremely scummy considering he posted so extensively in other games during the same time. I was very surprised when he came back town, because I really thought the case against him was strong. I was wrong

.

Post 33: Stresses that "he [d3sisted] did have the chance -- and chose to ignore it. To me, that's enough to override my concerns over lynching an absentee."

Post 34: "@Battle Mage: What do you think of d3sisted going silent when he received 3 votes?" Again, pressing the point of d3sisted's absence.

I was also disturbed that BM would analyze d3sisted without even mentioning what I thought was the most scummy thing the latter did. I wanted BM to explain why (which he still hasn't done, unless I missed it).

Post 35: "Given my stated aversion to lurkers, I would love to go after Mr.PiGG. Unfortunately I don't think it would do us any good since he hasn't posted anywhere since the 11th." ... reasonable enough, but again, pushing the 'lurkers might be scum' theory.

Post 36: Again asks BM why he thinks d3sisted went silent and repeats that this is suspicious. Interestingly, BM never really answered this, although he answered similar concerns of mine, I think ... he seemed to agree with this point, but didn't want to lynch d3sisted because he didn't look scummy to him. Note: Yes, BM definitely could have opposed the d3sisted lynch more, if he really wanted to look town.

Post 37: Correctly (IMO) calls ckd on the fact that his post that perhaps the scum might not kill the masons looked bad and possibly scummy.

Post 38: Defends ChronX for his vote of MR.PiGG (Correctly, IMO). Also says: "CKD's post 338 could be merely stating the obvious, but it could also be laying the groundwork for WIFOM tomorrow." What do you think of this today, HeH?

I'm inclined to believe the claim, particularly in light of CKD getting permission from the mod to post information about the role. But boy CKD is making some posts that make me squirm. I'll elaborate when I go into my suspect list in a later post.

Post 39: Agrees that ckd or MR.PiGG shouldn't be lynched on day 1.

Post 41: Pointed questions; good.

Post 46: First post on day 2. Ponders the setup; looks reasonable to me, although I remember having seen BM ask HeH query about it, but he never responded.

I think I've answered his questions, but if not please point it out and I'll answer anything I've overlooked.

Post 47: Replies to my query about the assumption that the scum are indeed not the claimed masons; reasonable enough, but it still bugs me a little.

Post 48/49: An interesting line of thought about BM's 'clear' list and how it corresponds with the number of living players and the mason claim. Looks useful, but it's another example of HeH's very general ponderings. I often get the feeling that he's trying a little too hard too be seen to be thinking things through ...

Well, I am trying to think things through. Isn't that the idea?

Post 50: Responds to my query about BM's innocence; fair enough. Responds to ChronX; "HeH is saying way too often how town he is." ... "I did so because much of my theory only works if I'm town and I wanted to make it clear that I understood that limitation." ... sounds fair enough I guess.

Verdict:

I don't think HeH has been very helpful in this game. The only real pressure he has placed on anyone was on d3sisted for being absent, and he turned out to be town. Now, I'm not laying the blame on the d3sisted lynch on him, but he did help a lot with it.

I did -- I thought it was the best case at the time. Looking back, I still feel that way, even though the result sucked.

Also, he is definitely someone who could have seen Raffles as a threat. The rest of the time, it's been some very vague theories, in which even he has little confidence. He helped BM drag the NK discussion along, which is something I agree was of little use. He's also very insistent that scum will lurk in this game, and that anyone not lurking is likely town - thus clearing himself.

I do think being aggressive is more likely something a townie would do. I don't think we should clear anyone on that basis alone, however -- it's just an indication. It seems like people don't agree with me on this, so I'll accept the criticism and drop the issue.

I'm starting to lean towards the idea that it's just a WIFOM tactic, especially in that his theories have been distracting more than helpful. He often says things like "I know I'm town ..." etc. ... but I'm actually not sure if that's a tell; there are certainly scummier things about him.

Yes, I know that unhelpful is not completely the same as scummy, but this is my number one lead right now ...

For now,

FoS: Hang 'em High

... I'll do some more later.

I've got to head out now, so I'll post more tomorrow (or tonight if the family gives me a break).

[Hang 'em High]

interesting.

Care to elaborate?