Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

Gah..hit submit by accident

Addressing the next bit of Oman's post:

And AlyG may be scummy, but I put him at #4, I still firmly believe that he is not #1. You're twisting this, saying that I am denying an AlyG kill by not puting him #1, but supporting it by putting him #4. The simple fact is, if he's on my list, I want him there (Though he's not).

No. I never said that at all. My words were:

AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if Orig killed her with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play).

This is a strange statement indeed because it is firmly rooted in the (potentially rather telling) assumption that AlyG is pro-town. Given that you recently had AlyG as a NK candidate, this is a remarkable change of heart Oman.

You just don't get this, do you...
You are saying you would go after Orig if he NKed AlyG because that would be anti-town. You still haven't picked up on the fact that

you are assuming AlyG is protown

because you are saying that killing AlyG would be something that you would go after Orig for.

Now, the only way out for you here is to say that "What if Orig was a SK killing mafia AlyG?" Fine...except that if AlyG is mafia than AlyG is not tracker (unless AlyG came up mafia tracker, which is very unlikely).

Now, to add further fire against you, this assumption makes no sense given that you were just recently having AlyG as #4 on a list of preferred candidates for NK. The person you are now bluntly assuming is pro-town.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

You've well and truly taken the lead.

[Oman]

WRONG WRONG WRONG.....WRONG!

You still haven't picked up on the fact that you are assuming AlyG is protown because you are saying that killing AlyG would be something that you would go after Orig for.

The reason I would go after orig is because AlyG is so far down the preference list that he's not a logical pro-town night choice.

You're estimating my motives, and you're....WRONG!

[vollkan]

The reason I would go after orig is because AlyG is so far down the preference list that he's not a logical pro-town night choice.

You're estimating my motives, and you're....WRONG!

But you are assuming AlyG is protown. The other option is that AlyG comes up mafia, in which case, Orig is a likely scum partner (despite how nonsensical THAT would be). But this is not even entertained by you. You assume, prima facie, that a NK of AlyG is anti-town here, despite you allowing for AlyG as a NK candidate.

I don't think you see the problem here: In one post you allow for AlyG's NK. Yes, 4th preference, but she was on the list nonetheless. You could have put nobody in there if you were as convinced about her being pro-town as you now imply.

[vollkan]

I got a feeling that I had missed something vital when I voted Oman, and I now realise what it was.

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

.

I would like Oman to respond to my points anyway. Reason being is that the problem is one which will be dependent on Oman's responses now. Oman's response will determine if my vote moves.

I am sorry for being so cryptic about all this, but I will explain it.

[Oman]

But you are assuming AlyG is protown. The other option is that AlyG comes up mafia, in which case, Orig is a likely scum partner (despite how nonsensical THAT would be). But this is not even entertained by you. You assume, prima facie, that a NK of AlyG is anti-town here, despite you allowing for AlyG as a NK candidate.

NO I'M NOT!!

I'm saying if we take a vote on what orig does and he goes against it regardless of his target (town or scum) he is an SK and/or mafia, there is no reason for a town player to go against it. REGARDLESS OF ALYG'S ALIGNMENT!

You could have put nobody in there if you were as convinced about her being pro-town as you now imply.

I'm not implying anything.

You're reading too deep.

[vollkan]

Okay.

NO I'M NOT!!

I'm saying if we take a vote on what orig does and he goes against it regardless of his target (town or scum) he is an SK and/or mafia, there is no reason for a town player to go against it. REGARDLESS OF ALYG'S ALIGNMENT!

The problem I realised is related to this.

If Orig NKs AlyG, Orig has to be anti-town. Why? If AlyG comes up town, then Orig has, as you say, gone against everyone and killed a power role. That reeks of scumminess for obvious reasons.

If AlyG is mafia, then AlyGcould not have tracked Orig. I said this earlier on, but I was thinking about it in entirely the wrong way. This makes Orig obvMafia.

If AlyG is SK, Orig is obvMafia.

My earlier point about Oman bumping Lucienne and Elias remains, but this latest thing which I thought tipped him over was the result of me not thinking about this properly.

[Oman]

I'd like to appologise for all the caps too, you just didn't seem to get what my actual point was

[vollkan]

I'd like to appologise for all the caps too, you just didn't seem to get what my actual point was

I didn't even get what my actual point was XD

[Oman]

That me saying that orig killing AlyG was bad meant AlyG was protown in my mind.

[vollkan]

That me saying that orig killing AlyG was bad meant AlyG was protown in my mind.

Yes...I just meant that I was thinking the wrong way about this.

[Oman]

FTR: I see your argument as crappy, not scummy

[vollkan]

FTR: I see your argument as crappy, not scummy

That's the reason why I am so pedantic about my math/mass analysis deconstruction posts. When I don't use one I am apt to make mistakes.

[Gemelli]

I could go on, but it would be redundant because everything is basically the same, you can pick out any of her posts and notice the pattern of not saying anything new but just feeding back what everyone has already said.

Here's what I don't like about this post.

While Lucienne has been less active that one might like, and hasn't really put forward new arguments, what she HAS done is responded to the arguments of others.

She hasn't been a yes-person throughout the game. Some arguments, she has accepted. Others, she has challenged. While I certainly agree that advancing independent opinions is an important part of scumhunting, acting as an objective sounding board for the arguments of others is also part of the game.

The thing I'm really wondering about, though, is why you've called out Lucienne in particular. You mention in post 698 that Oman has also exhibited this behavior. What about Elias? Hasn't he been doing just about the exact same thing as Lucienne throughout the game?

What I'm getting at is that I find your single-minded focus on Lucienne to be specious. Given the criteria you are using to cast your vote, it seems that you should be talking a lot more about the other players that meet those criteria. This post feels a lot like the post-mortem you gave on your decision to kill CarrotCake all over again. I'm not telling you NOT to suspect people for the reasons you've given, but it would be nice to see you look at EVERYONE in the game through the same filter at once.

On an unrelated note, originality: you haven't posted your own top-4 list yet. Could you do that soon? I think you're the only active player that hasn't.

Now then: Oman. Reading your recent exchange with vollkan has made for a confusing afternoon.

Post 691: You post your top-4 list.

Post 707: You switch out AlyG for Lucienne, based on originality's post, still claiming that he is suspicious.

Post 717: "AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if [Orig] killed her with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play). No Kill should be #1 as far as I see. #2 should be dybeck, or if you are convinced he's innocent either Elias or lucienne, I'm really not sure wether cronic lurking or chronic lurking +1 scumtell in an effort to 'help' the town (might not be helping ) is worse." (edited to include later correction)

Post 722: "I'm not goign to tell people to put dybeck as #2 if they think he's town. Its their choice."

Post 724: "Actually the context of this discussion was other people's lists"

I'm having a hard time staying with you, so let me tell you how this reads:

You start by suspecting that AlyG may be scum. All well and good. It's a possible scenario, although I don't buy it myself at this point.

You are then swayed by originality's arguments -- IMHO, as posted above, unconvincing ones -- that Lucienne is scummier than AlyG, and you amend your list. This is continuing the pattern that made me suspect you in the first place: you waffle like an IHOP waitress on Sunday morning. I don't think there's anything wrong with re-reading and changing your mind, but when you do it as often as you have in this game, it reeks of opportunism.

I have no idea of what to make of posts 717, 722, and 724. You originally seemed to be talking about your own list. In 722 you state that you are not trying to shape people's lists. Then in 724, you indicate that 717 reflects how you think the overall consensus should play out.

It's kind of a mess. I still get the sense that you're flying by the seat of your pants here, switching tacks based on which way the prevailing opinion seems to be blowing. Which is what bought you my vote in the first place.

In any case, it sounds like we're all saying basically the same thing WRT what we expect Originality to do this evening:

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

If he agrees to follow this process, I think we'll be in good shape.

[originality]

Elias simply doesn't post enough for you to see how he plays. And Lucienne is worse then Oman. Yes, she answers, but she answers yes or no depending on what others already said. And her answers never affect the game in any way, its just like "Oh yea I don't agree with this" and it stays at that.

By popular request, my top 4:

1) Dybeck
1.5) Lucienne




3) I'd like to say Elias because of the process of elimination but I really have no info on him at all

4) Oman


As I mentioned, elimination leaves Gemelli and Elias, but since Gemelli is a sort of claimed powerrole I'd rather not risk.

I am indeed looking at everyone's top 4, and I will use those as the basis for my decision tonight, but obviously some people's opinions (I don't mean my own) count more then others.

[Gemelli]

I am indeed looking at everyone's top 4, and I will use those as the basis for my decision tonight, but obviously some people's opinions (I don't mean my own) count more then others.

I don't think that's a good answer.

I think that the only way this process makes sense is if you weigh everyone's lists equally using the process I posted above, exactly as it was posted.

If you do this, then we will have an objective way to measure your alignment on D3. If you weigh the lists using some unstated subjective criteria, that allows you the freedom to really pick whoever you want from anyone's list, and justify it after the fact by claiming that person X's vote counted more heavily than anyone else's.

[Gemelli]

Just to follow up on that, looking at the 7 lists posted so far, we have the following tallies (this should include Oman's switch and Shaft.ed's revised list, but I'd be obliged if someone would double-check my math):

No Kill - 6 votes
Dybeck - 6 votes
Elias - 6 votes
Oman - 6 votes
Lucienne - 2 votes
Shaft.ed - 1 vote
Vollkan - 1 vote

So given those vote counts, I would NOT expect you to consider targetting Lucienne, Shaft.ed, or Vollkan during N2.

If you weigh the vote tallies based purely on listed ranks -- e.g., position 1 = 4 points, position 2 = 3 points, position 3 = 2 points, position 4 = 1 point, you get the following results:

No Kill - 24 points
Dybeck - 16 points
Oman - 12 points
Elias - 9 points
Lucienne - 4 points
Shaft.ed - 3 points
Vollkan - 2 points

Same results as a simple tally, but you get a much stronger view of what the consensus preference is.

[originality]

My weighing scale isn't secret, its pretty much dybeck=not worth anything and shaft.ed=worth double. (I exaggerate of course, but its something like that. I wouldn't count someone who is scum, would I? And I don't think dybeck is missing from the top 3 of anyone's lists. ) Also whoever we happen to lynch, if the person is scum he gets nothing counted for him, and there's that.

And I see a lot of people not considering lucienne yet, such as shaft.ed. I'd like to hear from you about this.

[Oman]

Ranks have to be important in the count, not just that its there, but where they stand in relation to others.

[dybeck]

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

[AlyG]

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

Isn't there only 1 scum group? And this means that you are probably going to be NK'ed if your not lynched first. I don't see a problem with your death.

Iv'e got 1 question, is everyone prepared to lose originality tonight? I remember Vollkan said that we are and no one denied it.

[Gemelli]

My weighing scale isn't secret, its pretty much dybeck=not worth anything and shaft.ed=worth double. (I exaggerate of course, but its something like that. I wouldn't count someone who is scum, would I? And I don't think dybeck is missing from the top 3 of anyone's lists.)

I believe dybeck is actually #4 on shaft.ed's latest list.

Anyway, my point is that applying ANY subjective factors to the measurement is a bad, bad idea. I am OK with you making a personal judgement on which of the four town-consensus choices you will choose. I am NOT ok with you making subjective judgements in deciding what "town consensus" means. If you choose to fudge with an objective set of data, you are not working in the town's best interests. You are making a relatively arbitrary decision based on personal preference. My vote moving off you was primarily contingent on you allowing the town to direct your action tonight.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Also whoever we happen to lynch, if the person is scum he gets nothing counted for him, and there's that.

I'd be OK in saying that if whoever we lynch is confirmed as scum before we go to night, we will remove that person's vote from the final tallies.

But it's absolutely critical that the process used to give you the set of "town approved" options is open and transparent to everyone. The process doesn't need to work exactly as I've spelled it out, but the exercise is meaningless if we don't all have a crystal-clear understanding of how the town consensus list will be created.

I'm starting to wonder if our town-consensus list should be narrowed down to 3 choices instead of 4? We each continue to make top-4 lists, but originality would only select from the top 3 consensus choices. I think this would limit the town's risk exposure in the event that the Mafia load their votes to ensure that the player of their choice moves into the top 4.

I'm OK with a short list of 3 or 4 choices, but my support for this strategy is ENTIRELY dependent on originality agreeing that when he makes his kill, he will limit his choices to a short list of options provided by the town -- not "suggested" by the town, or "influenced" by the town, but an objective, data-driven list that is created purely by consolidating the preference lists of all the town members.

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

That's overstating the situation. I think it's clear from reviewing the lists that this isn't what we're driving towards. The #1 choice on 6 of the 7 lists posted to date is "No Kill." I'd expect that originality will take that into account when he decides what to do tonight, even if he didn't list "no kill" as an option on his own list -- and if he picks the #4 option, he will still be held accountable for explaining why he passed over town choices #1-3. But I think that we DO need his actions to be at least a little unpredictable tonight if we hope to eke out a tactical advantage for the town.

Iv'e got 1 question, is everyone prepared to lose originality tonight?

I think it's worth leaving him out there as a possible Mafia target if we want to keep our claimed tracker alive for another day. It's a risk we have to take, much as we risk a town member's life on taking his vig claim at face value.

[AlyG]

Oman you didn't answer this question. What was suspicious about my pre-attack on you?

[vollkan]

She hasn't been a yes-person throughout the game. Some arguments, she has accepted. Others, she has challenged. While I certainly agree that advancing independent opinions is an important part of scumhunting, acting as an objective sounding board for the arguments of others is also part of the game.

But this is a very easy strategy for scum to do. They don't need to hunt down for things, they can simply question and probe at the logic of other people.

I personally think that if someone is not actively hunting for their own evidence, that is a case for mild suspicion. It is not a vote-worthy tell, but it is valid nonetheless.

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

If he agrees to follow this process, I think we'll be in good shape.

This is what I have been concerned about. As it stands, it appears Orig will not NK. Whilst it is good that he won't NK, the fact that it

appears

like that defeats the purpose of this.

By adopting this approach, we have made it a near-certainty that Orig will not NK.

Let me be clear here, I

do not

want Orig to NK, but

I want

his actions to be a complete unknown.

Hence, Orig should not approach this on a set mathematical basis, as in, selecting the most popular option. Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.

No Kill - 24 points
Dybeck - 16 points
Oman - 12 points
Elias - 9 points
Lucienne - 4 points
Shaft.ed - 3 points
Vollkan - 2 points

I haven't done the maths on this myself, but what Gem has there looks correct. Clearly, No Kill is preferred. However, Orig, do not take that as a demand from us that you do not kill. Exercise your own judgment here. I would prefer it if you didn't kill, but I am not going to demand that you follow this list.

Iv'e got 1 question, is everyone prepared to lose originality tonight? I remember Vollkan said that we are and no one denied it.

Well, it will either be you or Orig that will get taken out, even if Orig is scum. Orig's alignment is much murkier than your own. If Orig comes up mafia, that may point more to you being mafia also, but at the moment we have

Anyway, my point is that applying ANY subjective factors to the measurement is a bad, bad idea. I am OK with you making a personal judgement on which of the four town-consensus choices you will choose. I am NOT ok with you making subjective judgements in deciding what "town consensus" means. If you choose to fudge with an objective set of data, you are not working in the town's best interests. You are making a relatively arbitrary decision based on personal preference. My vote moving off you was primarily contingent on you allowing the town to direct your action tonight.

Interesting. Given the off-chance that the mafia are outside the consensus choices, I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide. I suggest he follow the guide, but he is not bound by it if he thinks it is the best course of action otherwise. However, should Orig kill anybody, he will have

a lot

of explaining to do regarding what prompted him to make that choice.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Oh dear, I don't like this. You are assuming that town opinions are correct here.

But I think that we DO need his actions to be at least a little unpredictable tonight if we hope to eke out a tactical advantage for the town.

Okay. I agree with this.

[originality]

Gemelli, I am trying to not make this into a purely number-based decision, otherwise anyone can tally up the votes and figure out what I'm to do tonight. I'd like to not have a set decision, but rather a direction to follow. Otherwise the mafia will know too much. But I won't do anything crazy, whatever my action is you all will be able to clearly see why.

And yes I am prepared to die tonight. But if our kindly doc decides to protect me I promise I won't hold it against him.


And you're wrong in saying that the scum influence will get drowned out by the town votes. If one or two townies make a wrong vote the scum can jump on that and make it seem as if most of the town wants something that will end up hurting us. But there's not much we can do about this without first knowing who they are.

I also have half a mind to shove all these probabilities into a random generator and have it spit out what I should do. That would definitely do with the unpredictable factor, but maybe it could come out stupid. What do you think?

[Gemelli]

But this is a very easy strategy for scum to do. They don't need to hunt down for things, they can simply question and probe at the logic of other people.

Well, of course they can. I'm just pointing out that asking questions and probing at arguments is exactly what ALL of us are doing when we talk to each other.

I personally think that if someone is not actively hunting for their own evidence, that is a case for mild suspicion. It is not a vote-worthy tell, but it is valid nonetheless.

Agree that it's a valid suspicion, as well as with the "not vote-worthy" opinion.

This is what I have been concerned about. As it stands, it appears Orig will not NK. Whilst it is good that he won't NK, the fact that it

appears

like that defeats the purpose of this.

By adopting this approach, we have made it a near-certainty that Orig will not NK.

That's not correct. It would be a near-certainty if we were giving him a single direction, or even two. We are giving him a choice among four targets as selected by a poll of all our players. This approach is intended to limit his choices while still allowing him to make a choice. As far as I know, that is the ONLY way we will be able to make a solid assessment of Orig's alignment on the morning of D3.

Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have

complete freedom

in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.

No. I am not in favor of leaving the matter as open-ended as you suggest. If we set no limits on what behaviors will be perceived as acting in the town's interests, we open the door for long, tortured discussions on the morning of D3. As you say, allowing uncertainty as to what orig might do is a good thing for the town. Given the results of his decision-making on N1, I am adamant that giving him a blank check tonight would be a bad play.

Clearly, No Kill is preferred. However, Orig, do not take that as a demand from us that you do not kill.

Exercise your own judgment here.

I would prefer it if you didn't kill, but I am not going to demand that you follow this list.

Hang on a sec. I thought the whole reason we started looking into this strategy is that the town, as a whole, has a very strong reason NOT to want originality to simply exercise his own judgement?

Given the off-chance that the mafia are outside the consensus choices, I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide.

I think we need to continue to refine our lists, individually and as a town, including getting lists from our two inactives. But in my opinion, one of the primary goals of this exercise was to learn about originality's alignment. Again, if we change the structure to "listen to what we say, then do what you want" I fear we are going to end up with CarrotCake all over again.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Oh dear, I don't like this. You are assuming that town opinions are correct here.

Not at all. I am assuming that a mathematically-derived consensus of town opinion is required in order to make a legitimate assessment of originality's N2 actions. And I am stating outright that of all the players in the game, the one I LEAST want second-guessing explicit input from the town is originality.