Thinking out loud here ... bear with me if I ramble.
vollkan wrote:This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig.
I am still having a hard time reconciling that N1 CarrotCake kill choice with a pro-town alignment. The stated reasons for doing so don't hold up to the facts -- CarrotCake was NOT the quietest player in the game, and killing someone based on a "vibe" -- one which runs counter to nearly all of the discussion in the game to date -- is not really a pro-town play.
One scenario that I think should be considered was that orig targetted CC as a mafia or (less likely) SK, and then simply made a rushed decision on how to respond once AlyG revealed the targetting. In other words, let's not assume that players in the game always make the perfect decisions.
I agree that there would be plenty of reasons NOT to claim vig as an SK, somewhat less so as a mafioso. But assuming that he had decided not to call BS on AlyG's tracker claim, for whatever reason, he would be looking at making a claim which supports these facts: (1) he had indeed targetted that player, and (2) that player subsequently died. The first pro-town role supporting those facts which comes to my n00b mind, anyway, is Vig. Cop and Watcher leave you vulnerable to Occam's Razor ("yes, I targetted this player, but since I'm pro-town then obviously someone else did too").
If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town
Granted; we shouldn't be making assumptions on any alignments aside from our own. However, I would describe Dybeck's posts and actions as "townish."
I'll start by positing that Dybeck is not the SK. The SK would IMHO be happy to ride ANYONE's bandwagon, mafia or town alike. Dybeck has been steadfast in focusing on originality while other bandwagons have come and gone. So I'd be more likely to suspect Oman (for example) as the SK, based on play patterns to date.
It's a bit harder to make the case that Dybeck is not Mafia. All I'm going on there, really, is that his reasons for suspecting Originality closely match my own. Well, that and those posts I listed earlier where he argued against bandwagons for confirmed town roles. With my suspicions leaning heavily towards Originality as Mafia, it's hard for me to imagine Dybeck being in cahoots with him. So I suspect that Dybeck is either pro-town, or in a Mafia faction that competes with Originality's.
As far as there being no pro-town reason to get rid of Orig ... I'm not sure I agree there. He targetted a scumhunter, and the scumhunter died. While I agree that leaving him alive one more night will potentially give us more information about his alignment, it's worth noting that he may also target an active scumhunter, regardless of what direction we give him. Sure, that's a 1:1 trade mathematically (assuming we then lynched him the next day), but if the Mafia lose a highly-suspected target, and we lose our most active scumhunter, the town still comes out on the short end of the stick.
Generally, I'm confused about all the talk of "counterclaims." Isn't it possible for a game setup to have (for example) more than one Cop, or even Vig? I don't understand the logic of "you can't be a Cop, because I am the Cop."
Originality: quick question for you. If we asked you to target Oman tonight, would you do it? Why, or why not?