Blitz 21 - Hope plus One ―kibou― [End]

[pieguyn]

votecount 1.11

Firebringer (5) - Ranger, PhantomCobalt, Trebuchet MS, Expedience, Antihero

OceanWind (2) - hiplop, Sakura Hana
Expedience (2) - Mad King Ashnard, Scatterplot
Scatterplot (2) - Firebringer, OceanWind
Ankamius (1) - Wisdom
PhantomCobalt (1) - Ankamius

Not voting (0) -

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is January 24, 2:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2016-01-24 02:00:00).

Plotinus head of Scatterplot is V/LA until January 24.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Scatterplot

I like this vote.

Ranger is town, and so are you and Plot. Now stop tunneling and look at Sakura and talah. And maybe KT.

Please explain why you think Scatterplot is town. I saw that shitty townread on PC and became instantly suspicious of them, their defensive backtracking on their stance only convinced me further. Throwing townreads at someone playing non-seriously is so easy for scum to do.

I think this is jokier than Cobalt would be as scum!

This is mostly WIFOM, the meta aspect of it is largely unverifiable. In fact I have a specific and recent counterexample:

PC, are you sure you're not a werewolf? Can you double check your role card real quick?

Oh noes, I've been exposed.

This is PhantomCobalt after being specifically called out as his real scum role along with his partner.

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Actually yeah now that I've said this, the unvote in 17 is weird. I still want to hear more from them since I can hardly know from 3 posts.

Are you unsure about your reads, Scatterplot? There are a lot of question marks there.

r see why that wagon is moving so fast.

oh boy...

...

No, Antihero, I am not implying some nebulous scum influence on talah's wagon. Nor am I implying that he is likely to be town due to this. I am simply stating that I don't support the wagon much and disagree with those who do.

No, Antihero, I am not implying some nebulous scum influence on talah's wagon. Nor am I implying that he is likely to be town due to this. I am simply stating that I don't support the wagon much and disagree with those who do.

for what reasons? you seem to be disagreeing just because and that makes me very suspicious of you?

weird untouchable reads are weird

Because he has made three vaguely scummy posts and now has several votes on him and people wanting him dead.

Throwing townreads at someone playing non-seriously is so easy for scum to do.

Sure it is, but why is it impossible that a townie gut-townread a player for playing non-seriously?

Because I consider that unlikely, and the way they responded to and defended the read while downgrading it to a read of lesser significance. Also how their actual explanation for the read seems to be more based on tone than gut.

Why is it impossible that a townie was drunk and accidentally "scumslipped" in the thread?

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Because talah understood I was voting Sakura to poke her for reactions yet not only felt the need to mention it, he asked me why I was voting her on top of that.

I see that and when I first read it I thought he was just trying to move out of RVS. However, 17 makes me think he genuinely wanted to know (or wanted to look like he wanted to know) why you voted Sakura.

My suspicion is that he is the one playing us all for reactions. Again, I want to hear more from him.

Because I consider that unlikely, and the way they responded to and defended the read while downgrading it to a read of lesser significance. Also how their actual explanation for the read seems to be more based on tone than gut.

It's not unlikely at all. I've townread people based on tone lots of times.

Good for you then. Scatterplot was professing to know that PC had a jokey tone as town but I have specific evidence to disprove this. Therefore I think the townread is more likely to be fabricated.

I think your "read defense" issues are just you not being familiar with Plotinus.

So you're saying that Plotinus usually is overdefensive and backtracks as town and that this is a null tell for them? I don't like meta and am dubious of your claim.

Maybe I would like to hear from Ether then.

Why did Plot back up that PC read as if he was the one who made it?

Also seconding this so fucking much. I got confused and thought it was just one person talking until I reread through their ISO.

Why do scum lie about meta reads, Expedience? It's something that can be cross-checked. If Ether indicated that she has had experience with scum-Cobalt, and he was more serious, then that's true, regardless of Ether's alignment.

I think that Scatterplot carelessly threw out a townread at PhantomCobalt and then used meta to justify it afterwards. If they came out originally saying that they thought PhantomCobalt was town from meta then I think they would put more thought into their stance beforehand and it wouldn't be so full of holes, but they had to be pushed to provide reasoning.

@Ank can you really be wrong with a tell, though?

Sakura and I have extensive experience with each other. Just going by statistics, the odds of me being right over you are pretty high.

Ok, I understand.

Damn. Scatterplot / PC are both scum, aren't they. This is almost too fucking easy.

Third scum is probably Trebuchet or Sakura imo. I haven't decided which of those arguments is TvT yet.

The way Trebuchet backed down from Anti in 376 looks bad, as does the constant shit-flinging between Wisdom and Sakura (out of which Wisdom emerges the more reasonable-looking).

alright expedience

you've got the conn

Indeed I do.

Talah is flailing under pressure. All of his reads are OMGUS trash and most of his defense has consisted of firing back questions and casting doubt at his accusers. On the other hand, the replacing out makes me think most of the frustration was probably genuine. I don't have problems with 15.

Ktthecreeper's posts on page 22 and 23 looked super fake, like he was trying to appear town but had no idea what he was doing (e.g. 546). I don't think he replaced out strategically. 560 and 569 are scummy.

He could be just a VI though so let's hear from Firebringer. Appeal to emotion for me.

VOTE: Firebringer

That's L-1.

[Sakura Hana]

You said you never bus, and I gave you a instance of you doing a buss.
You can go back to saying "I rarely buss" but you can't say "I never buss" cause I just proved you wrong.

Its easier to tear down an argument when you make an absolute statement such as "I never do X" which I just did.

Way to get highly defensive though.
It feels like you can't even read your own posts!

Yeah, you're right, i shouldn't make absolute statements, but that's still my motto, wether it happened on one game or not, doesn't mean that i do or like busing, it's like you didn't even read the scum PT of that game nor saw my reactions to when i threw the fake track.

[Firebringer]

Yeah, you're right, i shouldn't make absolute statements, but that's still my motto, wether it happened on one game or not, doesn't mean that i do or like busing, it's like you didn't even read the scum PT of that game nor saw my reactions to when i threw the fake track.

I nowhere stated you like to do busses.
I was saying that you have done at least once before that I know off.

Why are you continuously inserting words into my mouth?

[Sakura Hana]

Do you imply that their reads have been changing to fit the largest wagon?

[Firebringer]

Seriously you two need different avatar, this is ridiculous.

[Sakura Hana]

Seriously you two need different avatar, this is ridiculous.

Not really after i went through so much trouble to find matching avatars of Ami and Mami for pie and me.

[Firebringer]

I want to out just at how annoying it is to tell you two apart.

[Sakura Hana]

Why are you continuously inserting words into my mouth?

I am? which words am i inserting? show me. I am waiting.

[OceanWind]

I haven't read it on detail, i read the starting part where you were comparing her to her towngame on that newbie game we played together.
That being said in that game i was scumreading her for a lot of the game due to her awkward playstyle, i feel i could be making the same mistake here, i'll check it over when im done watching anime (a.k.a tomorrow).
Don't think that'll be enough to get them lynched even if i am convinced tho.

Her playstyle there to here is tremendously different. Even if you were scumreading her there, the difference here is that she's not even engaged with the game in any capacity which fits with what she told me and SilverWolf during lylo of that game about her scumgame.

If you can see that, you should join me. I'm very, very confident on this. Don't worry about what's enough to get them lynched. When I'm this confident on a read, I see it through to completion.

Do read through the case and follow the links though. If Ether is actually town here, I will eat something the same size and shape of my shoe.

[RadiantCowbells]

Look screw this I'm not post by post analysis.

There's a few things that really bother me.

1) Firebringer vote. He talks about how PC is obvious scum with Plot the whole game, then randomly decides to bring Firebringer to L-1 as a 'let's hear from Firebringer!' vote. And appeal to emotion, wtf? This is way out of place for where Town!Expedience is claiming to be at this point in time.

2) Talah read. He soft defended Talah literally the whole game, saying shit like 'oh maybe Talah's the one getting reactions you Talah voting b-bakas!', then finally after the replace he says something that implies that Talah could be scum but immediately switches back to townreading him because the frustration looked genuine on the replace out? I don't know, I don't like it. I 'think' they're scum together but not 100%.

3) The Plot vote in general. Of all the votes on the wagon, he felt the most 'trying to push counterwagon-y' of them. He did support the wagon more than others to his credit but I felt like his reasoning was forced and disingenuous and I just feel like the Plot wagon should have had a scum on it at least, and Expedience is sort of the most likely to be scum.

4) Just gut. The way he talks, way he feels, I think he's scum.

Oh and.

Damn. Scatterplot / PC are both scum, aren't they. This is almost too fucking easy.

This post is just sickeningly scummy.

[RadiantCowbells]

My current state is that Expedience is definitely scum, Trebuchet is probably scum, and Talah is probably scum as well.

I've loathed the KT wagon most of this game. I'm going to figure out Oceanwind now that we have a replacement.

[Ankamius]

RC: Talah flips town. Is Expedience still scum?

[Mad King Ashnard]

yes, absolutely.

[OceanWind]

RC: Talah flips town. Is Expedience still scum?

Ankamius - let's talk about Scatterplot please.

[Mad King Ashnard]

My current state is that Expedience is definitely scum, Trebuchet is probably scum, and Talah is probably scum as well.

I've loathed the KT wagon most of this game. I'm going to figure out Oceanwind now that we have a replacement.

Look screw this I'm not post by post analysis.

There's a few things that really bother me.

1) Firebringer vote. He talks about how PC is obvious scum with Plot the whole game, then randomly decides to bring Firebringer to L-1 as a 'let's hear from Firebringer!' vote. And appeal to emotion, wtf? This is way out of place for where Town!Expedience is claiming to be at this point in time.

2) Talah read. He soft defended Talah literally the whole game, saying shit like 'oh maybe Talah's the one getting reactions you Talah voting b-bakas!', then finally after the replace he says something that implies that Talah could be scum but immediately switches back to townreading him because the frustration looked genuine on the replace out? I don't know, I don't like it. I 'think' they're scum together but not 100%.

3) The Plot vote in general. Of all the votes on the wagon, he felt the most 'trying to push counterwagon-y' of them. He did support the wagon more than others to his credit but I felt like his reasoning was forced and disingenuous and I just feel like the Plot wagon should have had a scum on it at least, and Expedience is sort of the most likely to be scum.

4) Just gut. The way he talks, way he feels, I think he's scum.

Oh and.

Damn. Scatterplot / PC are both scum, aren't they. This is almost too fucking easy.

This post is just sickeningly scummy.

VOTE: Scatterplot

I like this vote.

Ranger is town, and so are you and Plot. Now stop tunneling and look at Sakura and talah. And maybe KT.

Please explain why you think Scatterplot is town. I saw that shitty townread on PC and became instantly suspicious of them, their defensive backtracking on their stance only convinced me further. Throwing townreads at someone playing non-seriously is so easy for scum to do.

I think this is jokier than Cobalt would be as scum!

This is mostly WIFOM, the meta aspect of it is largely unverifiable. In fact I have a specific and recent counterexample:

PC, are you sure you're not a werewolf? Can you double check your role card real quick?

Oh noes, I've been exposed.

This is PhantomCobalt after being specifically called out as his real scum role along with his partner.

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Actually yeah now that I've said this, the unvote in 17 is weird. I still want to hear more from them since I can hardly know from 3 posts.

Are you unsure about your reads, Scatterplot? There are a lot of question marks there.

r see why that wagon is moving so fast.

oh boy...

...

No, Antihero, I am not implying some nebulous scum influence on talah's wagon. Nor am I implying that he is likely to be town due to this. I am simply stating that I don't support the wagon much and disagree with those who do.

No, Antihero, I am not implying some nebulous scum influence on talah's wagon. Nor am I implying that he is likely to be town due to this. I am simply stating that I don't support the wagon much and disagree with those who do.

for what reasons? you seem to be disagreeing just because and that makes me very suspicious of you?

weird untouchable reads are weird

Because he has made three vaguely scummy posts and now has several votes on him and people wanting him dead.

Throwing townreads at someone playing non-seriously is so easy for scum to do.

Sure it is, but why is it impossible that a townie gut-townread a player for playing non-seriously?

Because I consider that unlikely, and the way they responded to and defended the read while downgrading it to a read of lesser significance. Also how their actual explanation for the read seems to be more based on tone than gut.

Why is it impossible that a townie was drunk and accidentally "scumslipped" in the thread?

Basically all that I noticed about talah was the serious conversation starting thing trying to move out of RVS and I don't find it scummy or see why that wagon is moving so fast.

Because talah understood I was voting Sakura to poke her for reactions yet not only felt the need to mention it, he asked me why I was voting her on top of that.

I see that and when I first read it I thought he was just trying to move out of RVS. However, 17 makes me think he genuinely wanted to know (or wanted to look like he wanted to know) why you voted Sakura.

My suspicion is that he is the one playing us all for reactions. Again, I want to hear more from him.

Because I consider that unlikely, and the way they responded to and defended the read while downgrading it to a read of lesser significance. Also how their actual explanation for the read seems to be more based on tone than gut.

It's not unlikely at all. I've townread people based on tone lots of times.

Good for you then. Scatterplot was professing to know that PC had a jokey tone as town but I have specific evidence to disprove this. Therefore I think the townread is more likely to be fabricated.

I think your "read defense" issues are just you not being familiar with Plotinus.

So you're saying that Plotinus usually is overdefensive and backtracks as town and that this is a null tell for them? I don't like meta and am dubious of your claim.

Maybe I would like to hear from Ether then.

Why did Plot back up that PC read as if he was the one who made it?

Also seconding this so fucking much. I got confused and thought it was just one person talking until I reread through their ISO.

Why do scum lie about meta reads, Expedience? It's something that can be cross-checked. If Ether indicated that she has had experience with scum-Cobalt, and he was more serious, then that's true, regardless of Ether's alignment.

I think that Scatterplot carelessly threw out a townread at PhantomCobalt and then used meta to justify it afterwards. If they came out originally saying that they thought PhantomCobalt was town from meta then I think they would put more thought into their stance beforehand and it wouldn't be so full of holes, but they had to be pushed to provide reasoning.

@Ank can you really be wrong with a tell, though?

Sakura and I have extensive experience with each other. Just going by statistics, the odds of me being right over you are pretty high.

Ok, I understand.

Damn. Scatterplot / PC are both scum, aren't they. This is almost too fucking easy.

Third scum is probably Trebuchet or Sakura imo. I haven't decided which of those arguments is TvT yet.

The way Trebuchet backed down from Anti in 376 looks bad, as does the constant shit-flinging between Wisdom and Sakura (out of which Wisdom emerges the more reasonable-looking).

alright expedience

you've got the conn

Indeed I do.

Talah is flailing under pressure. All of his reads are OMGUS trash and most of his defense has consisted of firing back questions and casting doubt at his accusers. On the other hand, the replacing out makes me think most of the frustration was probably genuine. I don't have problems with 15.

Ktthecreeper's posts on page 22 and 23 looked super fake, like he was trying to appear town but had no idea what he was doing (e.g. 546). I don't think he replaced out strategically. 560 and 569 are scummy.

He could be just a VI though so let's hear from Firebringer. Appeal to emotion for me.

VOTE: Firebringer

That's L-1.

Expedience's odd behaviour WRT the Talah wagon is just one reason to scumread him.

Talah could be town and Expedience scum.

[Ankamius]

RC: Talah flips town. Is Expedience still scum?

Ankamius - let's talk about Scatterplot please.

My impression of Plotinus is that she's going to be difficult for me to read.
I haven't gotten my own impression of Ether yet.

My read is leaning town due to the overall gamestate.

That's literally the extent of all my thoughts regarding that slot.

[Ankamius]

Ok, I'm confident RC is town now.

[OceanWind]

@Mad King Ashnard -

I have a lot of trouble following your read on Scatterplot. At first you push them which you later say is a reaction test to see who jumped on the wagon. Except you have no reason to believe Scatterplot is town beyond saying other people are scummy.

You are

assuming

Scatterplot is town and then looking at the wagon to see who jumped on. What's missing here is any solid reason to say they are town in the first place as opposed to them being scum and town voting them because they are scummy.

[Mad King Ashnard]

I do think that Scatter is (at least) slightly more likely to be town than scum.

Somehow I don't think scum!Scatterplot would so casually admit that they were planning to just ignore me the rest of the game.

Which I don't like, but I'll forget about it for now.

Also, my scumread on Expedience is not predicated on any read for Scatterplot.

[OceanWind]

My impression of Plotinus is that she's going to be difficult for me to read.
I haven't gotten my own impression of Ether yet.

My read is leaning town due to the overall gamestate.

That's literally the extent of all my thoughts regarding that slot.

Please comment on my case and look through the links I gave. You not having an impression on Ether itself should be a concern. When Ether is town, she makes a large impression on the playerlist and isn't one to stay in the shadows.

I think your Mad King Ashnard townread is a bit premature as well. Their play around Scatterplot makes no sense.

[Mad King Ashnard]

I am concerned about Ank townreading me as well, considering I've taken several games off him as scum where he townread me for much of the game.

It feels a bit iffy.

[Ankamius]

My impression of Plotinus is that she's going to be difficult for me to read.
I haven't gotten my own impression of Ether yet.

My read is leaning town due to the overall gamestate.

That's literally the extent of all my thoughts regarding that slot.

Please comment on my case and look through the links I gave. You not having an impression on Ether itself should be a concern. When Ether is town, she makes a large impression on the playerlist and isn't one to stay in the shadows.

I think your Mad King Ashnard townread is a bit premature as well. Their play around Scatterplot makes no sense.

Let me read RC my own way. I'll catch him eventually if he's scum.

[OceanWind]

Let me read RC my own way. I'll catch him eventually if he's scum.

That's fair but why are you townreading him in the first place now.

And please do comment on my case on Scatterplot. I'm surprised a lot of people just glossed over it and haven't said a word about it until I started prodding them.

[Ankamius]

I am concerned about Ank townreading me as well, considering I've taken several games off him as scum where he townread me for much of the game.

It feels a bit iffy.

I only remember seeing your scumgame twice.

The first time, I was inactive for the entire game and barely even followed along, but was able to find your mistakes when LyLo hit and I needed to be active in order to win the game.
The second time, I was onto you since mid-day 2 and you had to work around me to get the mislynches you needed.