Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[Hang 'em High]

My comments are in bold within the quote.

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today. But that's the most likely outcome anyway, since there are at most 8 townies left and 6 of us have to agree on a lynch today if we're going to get a mafioso. So being this aggressive would be a very high risk / low reward strategy for a scum to take.

If I were town, on the other hand, my play would make perfect sense. We're on a deadline and we can't wait for the scum to out themselves. We've got to aggressively dig them up, and that's what I've been trying to do.

To summarize my playstyle: I've been actively trying to unearth scum. If you look back over my posts, you'll find that my views have been consistent. I've warned against sitting back and being cautious and have advocated aggressively pushing to unearth scum. I've also been consistent in saying that my metagame findings are weak and that we shouldn't read too much into them. In my opinion, advocating a lynch with specious arguments is scummy, but trying to find possible leads without exaggerating their importance is pro-town. I've really been trying to do the latter, but of course you folks will have to be the judge.

For starters, beginning sentence makes you smell fishy, regardless of your alignment. Don't use it.

I'm not quite sure why you find it fishy, but I'll accept the criticism.

What more, I can tell you why you would act this way, if you were scum.

You argue from the point of view that if you were scum, you would lay quiet, as any good scum would do in a speed game. This argument has a situational flaw.

1. Let's assume you are scum for now. You are the leading wagon. If you lay quiet now, you are going hang for sure. Hence the only way out for you

is

to talk your way out. Since the best course of action is identical for a townie as well, this argument is null.

Of course I have to talk

now

, but the posts I made that put me in the hot seat were done

before

there was pressure on me. What I'm saying is if I were scum I wouldn't have been so active in the first place.

2. You metagame from the POV that scum would lay low. Whilst this is a good tactical play for scum, in the games where I am scum, I often use this to my advantage and be vocal on purpose, and I've seen many others do the same. Hence this point is a classic WIFOM.

While this is true to a limited extent in a regular game, I think it is less so in a speed game. It's harder for scum to lay low in a regular game so being a vocal scum is a reasonable play. However, in a speed game it is easier to lay low until the deadline and therefore too risky for a scum to be overly active.

[distad]

Sorry guys, school + wrestling work is killing me,

unvote

Raffles: Whole vote on the guy before you was to get him to talk. He was lurking a bit so I wanted to pressure him into talking about his vote cause I thought it wasn't random. But mostly it was a pressure vote.

I'd like to hear more from the replacements especially for apathy before I make another vote.

Right now I think the seven pages we have are rubbish and really arn't gona help. Maybe when the replacements get here we will have some better posts.

This was Pigg's last post. All of this is crap. This was a week ago and right after

HE

was prodded. He wants to hear from replacements before doing anything? Maybe if *he* was around more often, the seven pages of "rubbish" might have been more impacting! Get back in here and fight.

Vote: Mr.Pigg

[curiouskarmadog]

I am not liking how one prssure vote turned into 3...since post stood out to me.

Unvote: Battle Mage

Vote: Sonicpulsar

I think we've got to pick a lurker to threaten and since two people have already picked SP, I'll go along. Besides, he told us scum and power roles lurk -- and he's lurking.

what if he is a power role? Putting that 3rd vote on him would be dangerous, right?

God, I was hoping no one would go down this path. I felt HeH's post you're quoting might have possibly revealed a powerrole breadcrumb that Sonicpulsar dropped, which is why I didn't like that post that much - but I also didn't want to go into the issue of Sonicpulsar possibly having breadcrumbed, but now that it's out there ... HeH, did you really not consider the possibility that Sonicpulsar might have been breadcrumbing a powerrole when he said that?

HeH, this might be a cross post, but I would like to hear an answer to this.

[Hang 'em High]

I am not liking how one prssure vote turned into 3...since post stood out to me.

Unvote: Battle Mage

Vote: Sonicpulsar

I think we've got to pick a lurker to threaten and since two people have already picked SP, I'll go along. Besides, he told us scum and power roles lurk -- and he's lurking.

what if he is a power role? Putting that 3rd vote on him would be dangerous, right?

God, I was hoping no one would go down this path. I felt HeH's post you're quoting might have possibly revealed a powerrole breadcrumb that Sonicpulsar dropped, which is why I didn't like that post that much - but I also didn't want to go into the issue of Sonicpulsar possibly having breadcrumbed, but now that it's out there ... HeH, did you really not consider the possibility that Sonicpulsar might have been breadcrumbing a powerrole when he said that?

Honestly I didn't, because I don't see why in hell you would leave hints that you're a power role. Who has the most interest in outing a power role? Scum. So if you're a power role townie I don't think it makes any sense to drop clues that the scum might pick up on.

If he was breadcrumbing, I think it's more likely he's scum trying to lay the groundwork for a possible Cop claim gambit later on -- although now it's becoming WIFOM.

I actually took SP's post to be one of those generic statements about the game that make it look like you're contributing when you're really not.

As for being the third vote, I was doing it to put pressure and get SP to start contributing (which seemed to work). It only put him at L-3, so I'm not really worried about a quick lynch.

[Hang 'em High]

no, HeH... it seems that he's accusing CKD of bussing SP...

I don't get it -- CKD was the first vote on SP. How is that bussing him?

[distad]

My comments are in bold within the quote.

I'll ask you to look at all this another way. If I were scum, why would I act this way? There's simply no reason for the scum to draw attention to themselves. In a speed game it is much easier for the scum to lay low, particularly on day 1. If I were scum, the only reason to be as aggressive as I have been would be to try and lead the town into a bad lynch today. But that's the most likely outcome anyway, since there are at most 8 townies left and 6 of us have to agree on a lynch today if we're going to get a mafioso. So being this aggressive would be a very high risk / low reward strategy for a scum to take.

If I were town, on the other hand, my play would make perfect sense. We're on a deadline and we can't wait for the scum to out themselves. We've got to aggressively dig them up, and that's what I've been trying to do.

To summarize my playstyle: I've been actively trying to unearth scum. If you look back over my posts, you'll find that my views have been consistent. I've warned against sitting back and being cautious and have advocated aggressively pushing to unearth scum. I've also been consistent in saying that my metagame findings are weak and that we shouldn't read too much into them. In my opinion, advocating a lynch with specious arguments is scummy, but trying to find possible leads without exaggerating their importance is pro-town. I've really been trying to do the latter, but of course you folks will have to be the judge.

For starters, beginning sentence makes you smell fishy, regardless of your alignment. Don't use it.

I'm not quite sure why you find it fishy, but I'll accept the criticism.

What more, I can tell you why you would act this way, if you were scum.

You argue from the point of view that if you were scum, you would lay quiet, as any good scum would do in a speed game. This argument has a situational flaw.

1. Let's assume you are scum for now. You are the leading wagon. If you lay quiet now, you are going hang for sure. Hence the only way out for you

is

to talk your way out. Since the best course of action is identical for a townie as well, this argument is null.

Of course I have to talk

now

, but the posts I made that put me in the hot seat were done

before

there was pressure on me. What I'm saying is if I were scum I wouldn't have been so active in the first place.

*(1)*

2. You metagame from the POV that scum would lay low. Whilst this is a good tactical play for scum, in the games where I am scum, I often use this to my advantage and be vocal on purpose, and I've seen many others do the same. Hence this point is a classic WIFOM.

While this is true to a limited extent in a regular game, I think it is less so in a speed game. It's harder for scum to lay low in a regular game so being a vocal scum is a reasonable play. However, in a speed game it is easier to lay low until the deadline and therefore too risky for a scum to be overly active.

*(2)*

(1) - This is WIFOM. Because you say this, you could VERY certainly be an active scum to throw off a scent. And bringing that to our attention is a flashing light -- Don't worry about me because I'm posting a lot...

(2) - This is essentially the same point. Anyone laying low is certainly a suspect, but an entire scum team laying low would probably not be the best strategy. I anticipate that part of the team would lurk and part would be active, in order to cover all the bases. For you to claim that you are not scum because you are active does not follow. It just means that you are active.


Also, something to note... Raffles saying, "This is bad. Don't use it." sounds a bit like scumguiding in mid-day... Very minor, but something for me to remember later.

[Gorgon]

Well, HeH ... while your theory that Sonicpulsar might be setting up a false claim later is plausible, the possibility also exists that he was subtly hinting at the fact that he does indeed have a powerrole, and was going to lay low, and that people shouldn't draw attention to him. Risky, I know, but possibly worthwhile if successful. Kind of like "I'll lay low today and observe, but I'll come through tonight" I myself, for instance, had not noticed this until you pointed it out.

Although I must say that the risk is greatly amplified by the fact that we have a dead doctor ... so I'm not sure. I'm just annoyed that this got brought up, this soon anyway.

no, HeH... it seems that he's accusing CKD of bussing SP...

I don't get it -- CKD was the first vote on SP. How is that bussing him?

That's what I was thinking, so I'm very much looking forward to hearing from d3sisted again.

@distad - Mr.PiGG is highly suspicious, but unfortunately he's been AWOL from the entire site this past week. I don't think pressuring him will get us very far, I'm afraid. I also note that d3sisted has it in his sig that he's going away tomorrow, so the situation isn't looking all that good with regards to lurker pressuring, I'm afraid.

[distad]

no, HeH... it seems that he's accusing CKD of bussing SP...

I don't get it -- CKD was the first vote on SP. How is that bussing him?

I didn't say that I agreed with it!

But, by pressing on the other two while voting for the third seems a little weird to me, too. I'm not sure it's bussing, per se, but it is odd.

[distad]

well, MP's awolism and d3's vacation do stink (although, I'm sure d3 would object). We'll essentially need a unanimous decision from the people who are around to get even a deadline lynch (4 votes required, I think).

I didn't think that SP's comment was a breadcrumb. I've never played with him before, though, so I don't know if he has a tendency for that stuff.

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't see at ALL where I made comments that are generic and "seem" like they're contributing when they're really not. Mind quoting those for me?

Second, I don't see where I was breadcrumbing. I made my comments several days ago (Post 71 - August 28th, Post 99 - August 30th) and then proceeded to not post over the course of 3 days (September 14-16) with my last post being on the 14th (post 175). I realize this is a speed game but I'm guessing there are a couple of people who are far more lurkerish than myself. You're giving me too much credit that I'd lay down my plans 2 weeks ago (for a speed game nonetheless, with several replacements) so that I could cover my tracks later.

Contentwise: For once, I'm not picking up on much of a scum vibe from anyone. Typically (at least for me), someone makes an ass of themselves and/or screws up logically. HeH has been making theory after theory and backing it up with relatively good logic, but that fact that he's keeping at it so hard makes me think he's over-compensating.

I think it'd be a stupid idea to bus on Day 1. The fact that people think I was getting bussed by CKD seems fairly ludicrous. How could you think a first vote on me was a bus? If anything, it'd be classified as a distancing move, not a bus. That's an example of where Distad is using bad logic, which I usually associate with scum.

FOS: HeH and Gorgon

for the relatively illogical conclusions of me being a power role based on my posts about lurking and then my proceeding to lurk. This seems like quite a stretch to me. And, if you really are townies, why the hell would you point it out in the first place? I don't have a huge issue with it, I'm just curious why you thought it deserved to be pointed out.

[theopor_COD]

Pigg hasn't picked up his prod yet. However with a deadline in two days, I'm gonna wait until then before replacing him.

[curiouskarmadog]

Pigg hasn't picked up his prod yet. However with a deadline in two days, I'm gonna wait until then before replacing him.

making sure I understand, you are going to wait until after the deadline to replace him?

[theopor_COD]

Yep. He's had a day to pick up his prod. It's pretty unlikely that I'll be able to get a replacement in time, with any luck he'll appear.

[Hang 'em High]

I don't see at ALL where I made comments that are generic and "seem" like they're contributing when they're really not. Mind quoting those for me?

Second, I don't see where I was breadcrumbing. I made my comments several days ago (Post 71 - August 28th, Post 99 - August 30th) and then proceeded to not post over the course of 3 days (September 14-16) with my last post being on the 14th (post 175). I realize this is a speed game but I'm guessing there are a couple of people who are far more lurkerish than myself. You're giving me too much credit that I'd lay down my plans 2 weeks ago (for a speed game nonetheless, with several replacements) so that I could cover my tracks later.

There was some speculation (by curiouskarmadog and Gorgon) that the following post by you might be breadcrumbing:

Scum/Power Roles: More inclined to lurk. They don't want to put themselves out there too much for fear of screwing up or saying something stupid.

I didn't think this was breadcrumbing, I thought this was kind of a generic post. Actually, it doesn't really bother me much -- what's bothered me about your play is the lack of content. You're certainly not alone in that regard, but I thought it was time to start applying pressure to the lurkers -- hence the reason for my vote.

I think it'd be a stupid idea to bus on Day 1. The fact that people think I was getting bussed by CKD seems fairly ludicrous. How could you think a first vote on me was a bus? If anything, it'd be classified as a distancing move, not a bus. That's an example of where Distad is using bad logic, which I usually associate with scum.

I agree with you -- I don't see how this could be considered a bussing.

FOS: HeH and Gorgon

for the relatively illogical conclusions of me being a power role based on my posts about lurking and then my proceeding to lurk. This seems like quite a stretch to me. And, if you really are townies, why the hell would you point it out in the first place? I don't have a huge issue with it, I'm just curious why you thought it deserved to be pointed out.

I think you meant CKD and Gorgon. As I said above, I didn't think you were breadcrumbing a power role (which I think would be a stupid move). If I thought for a second you were breadcrumbing I wouldn't have brought attention to the post or voted for you. I voted for you because I thought you were lurking (which you essentially admit to). I am glad to see you've been responding.

[distad]

I think it'd be a stupid idea to bus on Day 1. The fact that people think I was getting bussed by CKD seems fairly ludicrous. How could you think a first vote on me was a bus? If anything, it'd be classified as a distancing move, not a bus. That's an example of where Distad is using bad logic, which I usually associate with scum.

It wasn't my logic... it was how I was interpreting d3's comment. I've already expressed this. Twice, actually.

[Sonicpulsar]

Dammit, I'm getting people confused because I keep getting interrupted every 2 minutes in the lab I'm teaching and trying to post in. Yes, Distad has made it clear that he didn't think it was bussing. I took Post 254 out of context when making my earlier post. I apologize.

I wasn't clear in my FOS of HeH in the above post. I FOSed Gorgon for the above reason (his illogical conclusions of me being a power role). I FOSed HeH because of Post 253 where you claimed I was setting myself up for a Cop claim later in the game.

[Hang 'em High]

I FOSed HeH because of Post 253 where you claimed I was setting myself up for a Cop claim later in the game.

Let me be clear -- I don't think that's what you were doing because I don't think you were breadcrumbing at all. If you were breadcrumbing (as CKD and Gorgon suggest might be the case), I think it would be more likely you were scum setting up a possible gambit rather than a true power role. But as I've said before, I don't think that is the case. I don't think there was any breadcrumbing -- I think it was a throwaway post.

[ChronX]

I FOSed HeH because of Post 253 where you claimed I was setting myself up for a Cop claim later in the game.

Let me be clear -- I don't think that's what you were doing because I don't think you were breadcrumbing at all. If you were breadcrumbing (as CKD and Gorgon suggest might be the case), I think it would be more likely you were scum setting up a possible gambit rather than a true power role. But as I've said before, I don't think that is the case. I don't think there was any breadcrumbing -- I think it was a throwaway post.

If you DON'T think he was breadcrumbing, do you STILL think he is scum but just not laying ground for a power role claim save if he is on the block?

If you DON'T think he is scum, why are you leaving your vote on him?

[Gorgon]

FOSed Gorgon for the above reason (his illogical conclusions of me being a power role).

FOS-ing means you're saying you suspect someone of being scum. Please explain how what you construe to be bad logic to come up with the conclusion that you might have been breadcrumbing a powerrole and expressing alarm over the fact that HeH may have stumbled upon this fact makes me likelier to be scum. Were I scum, what would my motivation be?

Btw, okay, you were not breadcrumbing. Fine - that clears that issue up.

[Hang 'em High]

I'm not sure if SP is scum or not. I do think he's been lurking, which he's basically acknowledged.

EBWOP Whoops, sorry, I meant I wasn't lurking on purpose, mistype.

I think lurking is a likely scum strategy -- something SP's also acknowledged. He knows lurking could be viewed as scummy and yet he's done so anyway. My vote is designed to apply pressure and find out why, and it seems to be working. Since he received a few votes his posting has picked up, which should help us determine if he is an innocent lurker or a scum lurker. I'm not sure which group he belongs in yet.

@Sonicpulsar: Since you know lurking might be viewed as scummy, why weren't you been more active before you received votes?

[Hang 'em High]

EBWOP: I was responding to ChronX's question in post 267.

[Sonicpulsar]

HeH, you and I have different perceptions of "active" and "content", especially on Day 1. I wasn't really lurking before this weekend (which wasn't my fault and the only "lurking" I've admitted to). I was making posts before Friday on a fairly regular basis and trying to provide content. You can probably count on 1 hand the number of posts I've made that are less than 5 lines long.

Gorgon, the fact that you

were

reaching so far to figure out my play style or whatever by latching onto the "breadcrumbs" made me suspicious. You seemed to latch on to it rather quickly. The second paragraph of Post 259 I think adequately explains why I think it was crap logic.

I'm no longer lurking (despite the fact it was unintentional) and I've stated why the theory that I was breadcrumbing is silly (and that you now agree with), yet you're still voting for me. On top of this, you're asking me to explain an FOS on you after I've already explained. Do I need to go into more detail for you? I'm not sure I can since I basically said everything that I needed to say.

All of this confirms my FOS on you.

[ChronX]

Metagame alert*****metagame alert****

Sonicpulsar was mafia in mini 452 (NBA) and I haven't given it a complete read, but at one point he notes (post 333):

Based on my limited experience, I've seen only two types of people who post a ton in these games. 1: Scum overcompensating the lurking tendencies, 2: Overeager townies. Neither of those two situations is good for the town. But I'd much rather have people posting too much than not enough.

It seems he is arguing that more posting is more pro-town. In that game, he was very active, and ended up lynched, but due to a claim.

I have not yet drawn any firm conclusions, but I suppose it could be argued that he learned the hard way to stay out of the spotlight as scum. Maybe the throwaway post was to set up an argument against any accusation of lurking...hey, why would I lurk after I was the one who said lurking was a possible scum tell.

[Gorgon]

SP, I'm not voting for you, but d3sisted. The only one voting for you right now is HeH. Are you paying attention at all? You seem to be overly concerned about defending yourself, as opposed to actually being in this game and trying to figure out what's going on.

Regarding the breadcrumbing issue, I'll spell it out for you. HeH quoted your posts where you said that both scum and powerroles were more likely to lurk. I was alarmed over this, because I genuinely thought that when I saw these quotes both together (two separate instances where you were saying scum/powerroles were both likely to lurk), you might have been indicating that you were a lurkish powerrole. I was already confused about whether you were lurking on purpose or not (since you have explained that you were watching the game at first, but didn't want to contribute anything because you thought the discussion was fruitless), so I thought this was plausible. I didn't want to mention anything over fear of giving this away to the scum ... but when ckd raised the possibility that you might be a powerrole, I figured the game was up and decided to chastise HeH for this; what I saw to be a possible error of judgement on his part ... and warn people in general about saying things that might indicate in an overt manner that someone might have a powerrole (although I didn't say as much - but I'll say it now then). HeH didn't have to quote those posts of yours in order to argue that scum are likely to lurk.

I believe this to be a dead issue now, and find it odd that you continue to pursue it. And you still haven't explain how this makes me scummy. Yes, you have explained that you believe it to be silly, crappy logic, but you still haven't explained how it's scummy. Crap logic is not the same as being scummy, although there are correlations. You need to offer some theory that as scum, I would have some motivation to do what I did, and that I would have less motivation to do it as town - and this you have not yet done.

@ChronX - very, very interesting.

[Sonicpulsar]

I was replying to the fact that Xdaamno was a terrible player and posting easily 2x as much as anyone else in that game. Coupled with the fact that he posted basically 0 content and you're left with the fact that he was either 1. Bad townie contributing little 2. Scum over-compensating. Since neither of these situations was good for the town, I felt the need to point out as much. Turns out he was lynched for a different reason. I'll also point out that that was my third post in a thread I replaced into. viewtopic.php?t=5415&postdays=0&postord ... &start=325

If you take a look at the other game I'm playing now, you'll realize I tend to start most of my games stating the same thing so everyone knows where I'm coming from at the start. I'm consistent.