Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Kinetic]

I'm very LA because of tests (ones I should be studying for right now... but... <<)

My main issue with Stewie's large amount of knowledge of the game has nothing to do with him being the SK to gain that knowledge. What I mean is, I understand that the SK doesn't just "get" this knowledge from being the SK.

What I am trying to point out is that Stewie is lurking, rarely posting so people cannot get good reads on him, but is following the game to such a degree that he notices patterns of behavior just as much as everyone else, perhaps even better. He continually shows up at the right place and the right time to be pivotal in all of the lynches.

Another point, since you agreed on it, the SK was on time with ALL of his kills except the latest one. You agreed with my theory Mirth that he sent them in in advance. If Stewie really is LA, then this would make perfect sense.

Yet during the entire time he has "Hid in Plain Sight", refusing to give his opinions on any other players, so he is never tied to anyone in case something happens, and is playing extremely carefully. This points to a survivor role in my opinion.

I never meant that I thought he knew who the mafia were, but it seems to me that he is keeping very good notes, yet is refusing to share them with the town. Some of those notes could have been very useful in Day 1 and Day 2.

Mirth: When I pointed to myself being on scum lynches, that was intended to try and prove I wasn't mafia. I understood that didn't prove I wasn't the SK. That was what most of the fighting on Day 2 was about in my opinion. Everyone was trying to go after me because they thought I was the SK, and I really couldn't defend myself because the SK theoretically could be me. I didn't agree with a lot of the attacks, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a chance they couldn't be right.

[Mgm]

What's LA?

[Mgm]

Come on, people! We need votes right now!

[Kinetic]

Limited Access

[Mirth]

MGM, I am voting, just not for who you apparently think I should be voting for. I realize that Stewie is a L-1, but my vote isn't going to be moving (except maybe to you), because I don't think the case against him is sufficient to merit a lynch.

If you want votes, you should probably be addressing Stewie and Heather.

[Mirth]

EBWOP^ addressing Stewie and Heather in particular

[Mgm]

Even when you don't think he's scum, lynching him is better than a no lynch because of the resulting 1 in 3 chance of lynching the SK if we do actually lynch. The fact Stewie isn't voting himself is just icing on the cake. The SK wants the final day to be as hard as it can possibly be. He's contributing to that outcome.

[Mirth]

I'd like to hear more from Heather before I consider moving my vote (as I still have another 12 hours or so to consider that). I agree that a lynch is good, but I don't want to lynch someone who I don't really suspect (I will do it if it becomes necessary, but I don't want to).

Other than that, I have a feeling that I'll be the mostly likely night kill, and it will come down to you, Kinetic, and Heather. I will reiterate that I don't think Stewie is the SK, and am leaning toward thinking that Heather isn't.

[Mgm]

If you want votes, you should probably be addressing Stewie and Heather.

I was. I would like you to jump onto Stewie, but at least you are voting. Those two need a wakeup call.

[Kinetic]

My suspicions in case I'm lynched or NKed:

Stewie: Top suspect by far
MGM: Second on my list
Heather: Not really all that high, but possible.
Mirth: Really low, don't think she's the SK. Do think she's been stubbornly attacking me all game, but thats much more townie than anything else.

[Stewie]

I'll

vote:mgm

since he's the only person I've had vibes on, and I don't really like the way in which he's riding Kinetic's (faulty) logic. Before Kinetic actually explained his vote, mgm didn't say much, but now he seems to be behind the idea of lynching me.

[heatherlou]

I will vote before deadline:

vote: Mgm

i've had weird vibes from you from post one, but I thought it was just because you were talking a lot so we had a lot to go off of. If you really want me to vote, this is where I'll go. I simply don't feel strong at all about Stewie so I'm especally not going to hammer someone I don't even think is scummy just to get a lynch.

[Kinetic]

So.... we have two people at Lynch -1 and the only person who I'm pretty much sure isn't the SK has the deciding vote... lol

I'm going to go back and find that exact time of the last SK kill, see when the true deadline is.

[Kinetic]

PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:06 pm Post subject: 533 Reply with quote
Raffles is killed!

He was a Member of the Mafia!

Ok, we got until 2PM Sunday to make a decision. Looks like the choice is between MGM and Stewie at tis moment.

[Mirth]

I don't like how Heather just jumped on after Stewie jumped on, but MGM is number two on my scum list.

So I'm going to

Unvote: Kinetic

and

vote:MGM

, though I do not like Heather's wagon jump. I also do not expect to survive tonight.

[Mirth]

And damnit, I just misread Sunday for Saturday. Crap. Apologies for this.

[Kinetic]

Lynch... >>

Although I'm not too unhappy about it, I did have MGM high on my list, I think I would have much preferred to lynch Stewie...

We'll see what happens after the alignment reveals.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

MGM bites the Dust

He was a townie!

Keep playing!

[Kinetic]

-.- There is no keep playing until we get a confirmed SK kill. However, I MUST say this immediately.

DO NOT VOTE!

I swear to god, if one of the townies quick votes on the last day and ends this game prematurely I will be very pissed.

We have a WEEK, we do not have to vote right away.

In other news, let us wait for the SK kill.

[Mirth]

Argh. Again, I'm horribly sorry about that. (Last time I'm checking games in a state of exhaustion. Darn reading comprehension.) Though MGM was second on my list of suspicion. I guess waiting for the SK kill would probably be the best option now.

[heatherlou]

damnit. I realized I voted right after stewie, which doesn't make me look good, although I had been pointing out Mgm scum stuff before I actually voted for him. I really really wish he hadn't been a townie.

[Mirth]

I'm not liking this whole waiting for the other shoe to drop thing. I'm going to do a partial reread for voting and kill patterns.

[Mirth]

I'm bolding votes by players still alive. Italics for daykills

1: Pooky announces game start on Aug 11, 8:01 am

2: Kinetic joke-votes Pooky

3: CKD votes Heatherlou
4: MGM votes d3sisted

6: I vote Kinetic

7: D3sisted votes MGM

8:Heather votes Stewie

9: Stewie votes Ninja/xyzzy

12: D3sisted daykilled on Aug 12, 9:52 am

(About a 24 hour window for first kill.)

13: CKD unvotes Heather, votes DeepSouth
14: MGM votes CKD

23: Kinetic votes MGM

30/31: I unvote Kinetic, vote MGM

32: Deepsouth votes Raffles

33: Heather unvotes Stewie, votes M4yhem

40: CKD unvotes Deepsouth, votes Hazzel
50: Deepsouth unvotes Raffles
53: M4yhem votes me
57: CKD unvotes Hazzel
89: Hazzel votes MGM
90: MGM unvotes CKD
100: CKD votes MGM

123: Stewie votes Hazzel

127: Kinetic votes Hazzel

138: Raffle votes MGM
139: Raffles unvotes MGM

150: M4yhem is daykilled on Aug 19, 10:14 pm
157: MGM votes Ninja/xyzzy

190: I unvote MGM

199: Kinetic unvotes Hazzel

213: MGM votes Hazzel
214: Raffles votes Stewie

234: Kinetic votes Hazzel

244: Deepsouth is daykilled on Aug 26 9:46 pm

265: Heather votes Hazzel

267: CKD unvotes MGM
281: Raffles unvotes Stewie
294: CKD votes Kinetic
300: MGM unvotes Hazzel, votes CKD

301: I vote Kinetic
303: Kinetic unvotes, votes CKD

353: Raffles votes Hazzel

354: Kinetic unvotes CKD, votes Hazzel

361: MGM votes Hazzel Hammervote on Sept 1, 4:23 am

372: Hazzel is lynched and CKD is daykilled on Sept 1, 8:46 pm

(I am not on this bandwagon, but expressed intention to vote Hazzel)

374: I vote Kinetic

379: Raffles votes Kinetic
390: MGM votes Raffles

393: Kinetic votes Heather

408: I unvote Kinetic

420: I vote Kinetic

422: Heather votes Kinetic

423: I unvote Kinetic

446: MGM unvotes Raffles, votes Xyzzy

457: Kinetic unvotes Heather, votes Xyzzy

475: I vote Xyzzy
486: Stewie votes Xyzzy Hammer vote on Sept 7, 5:21 pm

522: Xyzzy is lynched on Sept 9, 4:45 am

(Heather is not on this bandwagon)

533: Raffles is daykilled on Sept 9 1:06 pm

(I will conjecture there is about a 9 hour window of oppurtunity for the kill to have been sent in here)

538: MGM votes Heather

558: Kinetic votes Stewie

564: I vote Kinetic

574: MGM unvotes Heather, votes Stewie

585: Stewie votes MGM
586: Heather votes MGM
590: I vote MGM. This is a hammer on Sept 14, 7:50 pm.

(this is a really stupid move on my part. I need to learn how to read.

592: MGM is lynched on Sept 15, 3:15 am

(Kinetic is not on this bandwagon. There is no need to wait for MGM's role to be confirmed for the SK. I'm assuming the kill was not sent in because the SK a) did not see my vote before Pooky did and b) the SK did not expect me to hammar that quickly)

Now then I'm going to do a second post focusing on L-1 votes and windows of oppurtunity

[Mirth]

L-1/hammer analysis for living players only

Day 1:

Heather's post 265 is an L-1 vote on Hazzel
Kinetic's post 354 is an L-1 vote on Hazzel

Day 2:

Heather puts Kinetic at L-1 with post 422
I put Xyzzy at L-1 with post 475
Stewie hammers Xyzzy with post 486

Day 3:

Heather puts MGM at L-1 with post 586
I hammer MGM with post 590


Windows of oppurtunity analysis with Raffles and MGM (since I think the daykills before Raffles were predecided, and I think that the SK didn't see my hammer vote on MGM before Pooky's post (meta-gaming style):

Xyzzy is lynched on Sept 9, 4:45 am
Raffles is daykilled on Sept 9, 1:06 pm

Pooky's only two posts for the day, so the window can't be made any smaller.
Stewie's first post on this day is at 11:35 pm, latest at 11:58 pm.
No posts for Heather on Sept 9. Post on Sept 10 citing loss of internet. Post before then on Sept 7.
Kinetic posted from 12:14 am to 11:11 pm pretty consistently with posts in the window of oppurtunity.
I posted between 6:36 am and 10:57 pm. Definately in window of oppurtunity


MGM is lynched on Sept 15, 3:15 am

Pooky posted between post 3:14 am and 5:18 am
Stewie posted on Sept 14, 5:58 pm (before my hammer) and at 11:19 (in another thread after my hammer).
Heather post on 6:14 pm Sept 14, and at 6:04 and 6:08 pm Sept 15.
Kinetic posted between 12:53 am and 5:04 am on Sept 15, with multiple posts after my hammer and before Pooky's lynch announcement. I hammered. Obviously had a chance to pm Pooky here.

One last bit of metagaming, back to D3sisted's daykill:
Pooky posted from 8:01 am Aug 11 to 7:51 pm Aug 11. She then posted the kill t 9:52 am Aug 12. I will assume here the kill came in after 7:51 pm Aug 11
Stewie posted between 12:32 pm Aug 11 and 3:31 pm Aug 12
Heather posted between 10:26 pm Aug 11 and 7:44 pm Aug 12
Kinetic posted between 8:50 am Aug 11 and 11:58 am Aug 12
I posted between 12:23 am Aug 11 and 12:49 pm Aug 12.

Now then, this metagaming means nothing on it's own. I'm just curious what all of your thoughts on it are (hopefully before the SK strikes).

[Mirth]

PS: I should mention that I don't think a lack of posts signifies not being around to see things.