Mini 486: GAME OVER!

[curiouskarmadog]

crap. Totally forgot about this game.

now that you remember it, will we get some input..

I have more of the reread recap (mostly for my benefit) to come...just time consuming to break it down....lack the time right now.

[Shanba]

Alright. I'mma go back and analyse a bunch of players, just to help me get back into the swing of things.

[Shanba]

SPAG: Starts off with the "Omanscum googling his name" thing. There's possibly something to that, but I don't see it as particularly strong. It's possible that he just picked a random townie and googled his name, but it's also possible he was looking up info on his scumbuddy. Nothing conclusive to my mind.

He FoSses Ojpower without removing his random vote. He then plays both sides of the DFN/Ojpower debate, possibly looking to see which one he can build a wagon on. Alternatively, he could have been waiting to see if an attack on his scumbuddy would blow over or he would have to bus him. Either way, still looks scummy.

Note - I hate his wordchoice in basically all his posts. He is forever qualifying all his suspicions or divulging his own responsibilities.

3 posts in a row in which he says he will try and catch up. Active lurker?

Post 13: Scummyscummy scum scum. Hate this post with a passion. See my earlier note.

another 3 odd posts saying nothing in particular, or repeating what he already said.

Post 18: huge quote to which he adds almost nothing. Trying to look like content when really, it's not.

Post 20: WIFOM alert. Read at your own risk.

his final post he votes Para again, saying he hopes "we" are right. Actually, that's something else I ahte about his word choice. He's almost never says "I" when talking about his suspicions. It's as if he's trying to reinforce the idea in everyone's ehad that he must be town. Again, like the Elias thing, this is indicative of a scummy mentality.

Conclusion: Scummy looking lurker. Very few redeeming features in his posts. WIFOM, procrastination and playing both sides of arguments abound. May well vote him after I go through some other players.

[Shanba]

Elias: begins by pressuring Oj and DFN a bit but mostly pressuring lurkers (namely, my predecessor). A fairly strong early game attack on OJ. I read that as trying to get the game moving. Combined with his vote on my predecessor, that makes sense. His welcome to Para rads off to me, but I can't put my finger on exactly why. Notably, he never actually votes Oj/Para.

Post 12: hah. Methinks there's been plenty of analysis of his nelly vote already. I'll come back to it when he starts defending it later.

Post 15: He misinterprets Para's point. However, Para's point is crap anyway, since Elias already laid down why he was suspicious of OJ/para.

Post 18: This is the crux of the matter. The first point, I agree with. Splitting pressure isn't really as effective as pushing a single player. However, the second part really reads wrongly to me. Only scum need to worry about looking suspicious. A townie should simply play as comes naturally to him. he should attack those he finds suspicious and defend those he doesn't think are scum (but only if they're under pressure). I can see an alternative answer, however. Elias has stated that he's proud of his skills as scum, and not happy with his skills as town. It could be that when he plays as town he ends up thinking like scum anyway. If so, I would understand. I've caught myself as town pushing a crap case against someone because it didn't click that I should be hunting scum, not getting players lynched.
Edit after reading post 84: yep, that's pretty much what I thought.


Ok. I'mma skip the whole argument with vollkan simply to say that Elias is correct. Also, I tend to see the sort of explosion post Elias made as a town tell. Scum don't get quite so frustrated because under the surface they know the other guy is correct. It's a ewak town tell, but a town tell none the less.

MPost 38: Elias gives some suspicions. Vollkan/SPAG are put in town. I don't get placing SPAG there, tbh. What about his posts gave you a town feel, Elias? DFN/Para are placed in neutral. CKD and TheHermit are placed under suspicious. This is in line with his argument against Vollkan over TheHermit. Edit after reading post 97: Ok.

Post 39: I know I said I would avoid commenting on the argument between vollkan and Elias, but he mischaracterises Gorckat's vote here. Gorckat made the only point against Elias I actually agree with.

Post 45: Places SirT and Nelly in the town category. Why is SirT town? You explained why you felt Nelly was town. Gorck/Pulse are placed in the neutral category. Edit after reading his post 97: Ok.

I read the rest of Elias' posts, and nothing else jumped out at me. He's refuted the arguments against him, and the only reason I found him suspicious is a playstyle thing. This guy is probably town.

Unvote

[Shanba]

OK. I'm done for now. I ant to look at Setael, Jordan and TheHermit next time, but I feel like I'm into the flow fo things now.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think I noticed that I left some others off the list and then in a subsequent post rectified the fact that I had forgot some players.

[Elias_the_thief]

er, that was to CKD.

[curiouskarmadog]

OK starting on page 13.
--

Post 302: Para mentions that Elias stuck out in his head because he made a big deal about how vollkan could be scum, then Hermit followed his lead. Para makes some decent points about how Hermit and Elias should have handled vollkan possible “Scumminess”. FoS elias.

Post 303: Eluas wants to know what big deal did he make about vollkan being scum (to Para)

Post 304: Elias addresses the others he left off his original list. Sir T (now shanba), town., Nelly noobish town, Gorckat and Pulse (now Set) undecided. Elias confirms that Hermit and myself are scummy, but now Para is making that list. Votes Hermit

Post 308: Para posts to Elias…going to let Para’s words do the talking.

Well you forgot these parts:

ok, well seems to me that vollkan is a town aligned vig, thus the public demostration of his kill. It is in the mafia best interest to keep confirmed townies at a mininum...there is no point for the mafia to take one of us out, when there is a confirmed townie. the mafia wants to have the most unconfirmed townies voting as possible.

Why do you think he's town aligned? One mafioso dead in return for having one be confirmed in the eyes of the town? Seems like a sacrifice any mafia group would be willing to make.

I dont think we should lynch, im just saying he shouldnt be cleared. I'm not necessarily talking to only you when I say that, but the whole town.

Did you forget those? I did, but I didn't say them. I think it qualifies as more than a mention at that point.

And then this is the clincher:
(this time the bold is just for accentuation)

I need to reread before I say anything, but I'm suspicious of Hermit[.....] and Vollkan, since I'm town,

the fact that Oman indicated me last on his list seems to be too convenient to be a coincidence.

I seriously think that Oman and Vollkan (mafia aligned dayvig) had this worked out as a planned gambit.

This is actually the post that made me make a mental note and suspect you over it, I simply forgot it when I was laying everything out. In the part I italicized you suggest that Oman mentioned you as a way to get you lynched. Well this admits that you think Oman mentioning you is damning evidence, SO damning that he must've been out to get you. This is BS, Oman was confused and acting slightly sycophantic to volkan. He could've just been making up suspicions and prefferences. Maybe he actually realized his own suspect status(it's not that hard to see that volkan was out to get him) and want you to get mislynched later.

But you go as far as to use Volkan's unconfirmed-ness as a defense. It's stupid. You think Oman's preference of you is so significant that you now suspect Volkan. Volkan has done nothing seriously suspect! There's no reason to "seriously think" that the whole thing was a plan to get you.

I'll tell you what it looks like to me, it looks like you've gone from denial to playing on everybody's suspicions, redirecting them at Volkan. It's weak, it's contrived, and it's scummy

then Para vote Elias.

Para and Elias go back and forth a bit and in post 317, Para unvotes.

Post 319: vollkan places a huge FoS on Hermit.

Post 321: This post to vollkan from Hermit was my second beep on my scumdar. Basically Hermit says he voted for Elias because he “skimmed” through vollkan and Elias’s argument and thought that vollkan was making a good case.

Post 323: Vollkan answers Hermit..(good read this post)..Notes Hermits backtracking, ignoring points, and generally strange play.

Post 326 until 355: Hermit, Elias, and vollkan go back and forth.

Post 351: Vollkan asks why my vote is on Para. I answer in post 357.

Post 358: Vollkan places the second vote on Para (at one point pulse removed his vote)

Post 360: Para’s misquote. This is what really set me off. At this point, I was watching the Hermit/vollkan/elias exchange trying to figure out what I thought…then when Para dropped this, I thought there was nothing scummier by far in this game. Para also FoSed me.

Post 363 until 366: Vollkan/Para/and I discuss the misquote.

Post 367: Nelly posts a rather long breakdown on everyone. Feels SPAG and Hermit are our scum. Votes Hermit.

Post 368: vollkan agrees with Nelly

Post 369: Hermit attacks Nelly (or defends himself, cant tell)

Post 370: Elias provides Hermits three backtracks.

Post 371: Nelly attacks Hermit back.

Post 374: Hermit self votes…(ugh)

Post 384: conversation about Deadlines..Vollkan votes Hermit.

Post 390: I mention that Hermit is at –2. I comment that I feel that Para or Elias is the way to go for a Day 1 lynch. I mention that Hermit did not hammer Nelly when he had the chance.

Post 391: vollkan moves vote to Elias.

Post 396: vollkan unvotes

Post 397: Hermit unvotes himself.

Post 398: Para votes Hermit.

Post 401: Jordan comes out of no where and FoSes everyone, but votes Hermit.

Post 404: doesn’t want anyone to hammer until Hermit gets to say something.

Post 407 until 424: Para and I go around

Post 416: Elias unvotes

--

Got to end for now end page 17…Hermit endures a bandwagon. Para seals the deal in my eyes. Still noticing a theme. Not much from Gorckat (vacation) or SPAG. Elias continues to look scummy in many people’s eyes.

[gorckat]

You're coming from the assumption that I base all of my opinions on amount and length of posts, which is ridiculous.

I'm not coming to that conclusion, you lead me there:

Pulsewidth: Um, barely enough posts to analize. Official Opinion: Undecided, slightly scummy looking

He was within one post of two players that you felt town. One of those players had contributed very little, as Hermit pointed out. It appears that you wanted SPAG cleared and pulse not.

It's a little thing that makes Oman's list look like a cover for you.

I might be inclined to vote for SPAG today, over Elias. I concede a small chance (say less than 20%) that Elias is town, in which case SPAG's own apparent guilt just happens to put Elias in a bad light.

[curiouskarmadog]

Starting off with page 18….

Post 425-435: Elias/myself/Vollkan question/attack Para and para responds.

Post 436: out of nowhere (Gor admits) Gorckat votes Sir Tornado. Gorckat says he wants to hear ST’s comments on the event of the last two days. (side note: at this point, gorckat has not posts comments on the events for the last two days).

Post 439: Jordan agrees with vollkan’s questioning of Para(mostly).

Post 442: Gorckat FoSes me for pushing the Para lynch pretty hard. (true I did)

Post 450: I asked Gorckat how he knows my pushing of the Para lynch is not pro-town. (interesting question now in Day 2)

Post 451: Gorckat answers with “its not?”.

Post 453: Para and I go around for a bit.

Post 457 until 463: SPAG PM deal….

Post 464: ST asks for a replacement

Post 466 Gorckat votes for me (no reason given at the time)

Post 467: vollkan votes for Para.

Post 470: Elias votes for Para (put him at –3)

Post 473: Nelly votes for para (-2)

Post 474: The Hermit feels that Para, Elias, and nelly are suspicious…votes of Elias.

Post 478: SPAG asks for the case against Para (doesn’t want to read the thread)

Post 479: Gorckat explains that he was indeed calling me newbie scum in an earlier post.

Post 481: SPAG has not read the thread, but due to many people being sure (and spag reading para’s comments..votes para (-1)

Post 482: Gorkcat says he prefers a lynch to a no lynch and says he will hammer Para if needed.

Post 494: gorckat unvotes me after discussing the SPAG PM incident.

Post 495: Jordan thinks that Hermit is a better lynch

Post 521: after Gorckat asks SPAG why he has a vote on Para, SPAG removes vote (due to game extension.

Post 522: Gorckat reinstates question to SPAG “Anything in particular xombie did that got your attention?”

Post 523: SPAG answers “Mainly the things that Vollkan outline, they were the main scummy points” admits again he has not read the thread.

Post 524: Gorckat “You said you looked at his posts. What did you see”

Post 525: Vollkan notes Gorckat lack of content and FoSes him.

Post 526: I agree with vollkan, tell SPAG not to let “Gorckat push you around”

Post 528: Gorckat defends himself. Also mentions that he thinks there is a link between SPAG and myself.

Post 533: gorckat votes Para (-1)

Post 534: SPAG FoS Seteal because it seems like Seteal is “pushing SPAG to vote”

Post 537: Do not like this post…

ok i've had a read through. Throughout the whole of this phase, OJ now Paradox have stuck out like a sore thumb. Some of paradox's comments and cases have been cringeworthy.

I've been thinking, he's an experienced player, surely if he was scum he would be a better player than this?

Though i can't see anything other than a Parodoxombie lynch. And a Paradox lynch will give us some information. If he turns out mafia, i agree it will make me look suspisious for unvoting him but also it will show something about Gorckat, who seemed to defend him a fair bit, but voted him to put him at -1, as if giving up the fight to protect a scum partner and make himself look town. However, if he turned out town it will particularly show out Setael, who seemed to push me and gorckat into voting for him on suspision that we were protecting a fellow scumbuddy, and those two votes would secure his lynch. Also vollkan and CKD have been dominant in wanting to lynch him.

I think, ahead of the information this could give us, it is probably a good lynch. But the fact that an experienced player could play scum so badly is putting me off the idea. I would like to hear from PX himself before i place a vote.

Says OJ/Para sticks out like a sore thumb, feels that Set has pushing Gorckat and SPAG for a Para lynch. Also says vollkan and I really pushed for it.

asks to hear from para before voting

Post 541: 38 minutes later SPAG hammers Para…he also says..

Oh yeah, i forgot to say good job on Oman I trust you will be protected.

he knows he will not be protected…no doc in the game…interesting.

Post 542/543 find out Para was town and Vollkan was NK (mason/vig)

Post 545: Set calls out SPAG on his crappy play and vote. Votes SPAG.

Post 548: Shanba (SirT’s replacement)votes elias, claims gorckat as town.

Post 549: Elias posts that…

Moving on, I expected Vollkan to get killed, being the most obvious protown player, and also since killing him off protrays me in a scummy light. In light of this, I'm going to remind everyone that discussion is our friend. Im going to reread.

(wait, don’t I remember you trying to convince the town that vollkan could be scum? How come you didn’t say back then that vollkan was the most pro-town player? Was that because at the time he was attacking you and you wanted to try to discredit him?)



that ends page 22…Para and vollkan dead and both town…Elias and SPAG under attack..still in reread. Will post my current stance at the end of it (once I get a full picture)….

…as full of a picture one can have looking at a jigsaw puzzle with pieces missing.

[Albert B. Rampage]

YagamiLight replaces SPAG.

Give my friend Yagami a warm welcome!

[YagamiLight]

First,

Unvote

just in case.
I'm going to read and post my thoughts.

[Setael]

Welcome, Yagami! Thanks for replacing.

It will be a miracle if you can convince me that SPAG wasn't scum.

[Nelly632]

Vote: Hermit

[TheHermit]

I read the rest of Elias' posts, and nothing else jumped out at me. He's refuted the arguments against him, and the only reason I found him suspicious is a playstyle thing. This guy is probably town.

It's odd how two people can read the same things and come to completely opposite conclusions. I'll need to refresh myself with a re-read to make sure my suspicions of Elias are well-grounded. I don't want to go after someone strongly unless I'm sure they're scum, because if I'm wrong I don't think anything will save me from getting lynched (and town can't really afford that many mis-lynches).

Also, I'm a little surprised nobody's picked up on this yet:

I think it's very possible that SPAG ignored the suspicion on you and Elias because at least one of you are mafia. Personally, I don't think it's Hermit - I'm getting a very pro-Town read on him.

This is a somewhat unique opinion, considering I was close to getting lynched yesterday and am still considered to be one of the most suspicious players (I'd wager most people have me just behind Elias and SPAG/Yagami in lynch preferences). Obviously people found something scummy about my play... Setael, what have I said that has given you a strong town read? I'm curious how you arrived at this conclusion, because you might have found something about me the others missed but also because it's just as likely your reasoning might be wrong.

Finally: Nelly, we're a little bit past the random stage. I know there are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of me, but I think I speak for all of us when I ask why you find me more deserving of a lynch today than SPAG or Elias? If your reasons are good, they can only help your cause. If they are not, then why vote for me?

[curiouskarmadog]

First,

Unvote

just in case.
I'm going to read and post my thoughts.

THANKS for replacing!

you got some tough shoes to fill

[curiouskarmadog]

Vote: Hermit

I am sure you have a reason coming...

[Nelly632]

I stated my case in previous post and nothing has changed since then, it would appear that everyone is ready to jump on the SPAG wagon and I personally dont have a problem with that because I found him scummy also.

But the truth is that between Spag and Hermit I find Hermit to be more deserving of a Lynch on this day.

[TheHermit]

A couple things that popped into my head during a reread:

Elias' vote for Nelly I can see as a difference in playstyles. I still think it could be scummy, but other equally likely possibilities exist so it's not enough to build a case on by itself. I'll file this away for now.

As far as Oman's vig list goes... there's not really a whole lot to say. It's absolutely impossible to know what Oman was thinking; all we have our guesses and hypotheses based on what he was trying to accomplish. While it does paint Elias in a bad light, I don't think it's damning by itself.

All in all, I'm finding a reread very enlightening. I'm no longer as confident that Elias is scum. That is to say I'm still suspicious of him, but I'm unconvinced he should be today's lynch.

Oh, and while I'm shooting my own defense in the foot by digging at Setael, I'm going to mention that just because I didn't hammer Nelly or Para when I had the chance, it doesn't prove I'm not scum. It doesn't even suggest it. As Elias points out (correctly) in Post 149, most scum won't carelessly hammer at the first opportunity. It sets off all sorts of warning bells and provides a clear Day 2 target for a lynch, and scum can't afford a 1-1 trade. So it's possible, and in fact simple, for me to be scum even if I didn't hammer. It doesn't speak either way to my townness or scumness.

It took me some time to dredge up Nelly's arguments, so I'm going to have to get to them tomorrow. It's late now and I need my sleep.

[Setael]

Setael, what have I said that has given you a strong town read? I'm curious how you arrived at this conclusion, because you might have found something about me the others missed but also because it's just as likely your reasoning might be wrong.

My #1 reason is the same reason everyone pulled their votes off you yesterday. Your exasperated attempt to quit/suicide felt Town. I could be wrong, but it didn't feel like a scum dramatization at all. If it was, bonus points for you. My other main reasoning is I think the 2 scum left are SPAG and Elias. I could be wrong about one of them or both, but I'm feeling strongly about both of them, which would make you Town.

[YagamiLight]

Okay, my first post is Elias. I'll try and cover everyone, and it should take less time, as I"ve already read everything now.
Right now, some things I've seen on Elias. The day vig portion of yesterday with Oman seeming to try and protect you. He said that one of his reasons for not voting Hermit was because he didn't want to look like he is distancing (and if Elias is scum, I would believe that TheHermit is too). Also, like Setael said, this...

Moving on, I expected Vollkan to get killed, being the most obvious protown player, and also since killing him off protrays me in a scummy light. In light of this, I'm going to remind everyone that discussion is our friend. Im going to reread.

Looks like scum who knew exactly what he wanted to say, and is trying to make it look like scum are trying to frame him, but this point isn't the best because he could still be town, defending himself before it was brought up. Right now Elias does look minorly scummy to me, because a lot of it looks like speculation.

Also, really, I see no defense I can make, because I have no reason why SPAG did the things he did. Honestly, I feel an urge to vote him, even though I replaced him.

[gorckat]

Honestly, I feel an urge to vote him, even though I replaced him.

I've seen this in other games. I'm curious if it has been a town or scum tell. I checked 3 or 4 games with confirmed scum who were replaced, but none of them said this (at least one was a early Day 1 replacement).

If anyone else has seen a similar statement where the player's role is known, I'd dig knowing just for reference.

[YagamiLight]

This time, more than one .
First, CKD. Two things stand out with CKD to me. The first is where he asks Elias if we should kill vollkan, making it sound like Elias's suggestion. The second is here...

I said he his town in my book until DAY 2...but if I had money, I would put it on vollkan being NK tonight.

Oooooor the mafia could simply pick somebody else to kill tonight and laugh as we lynch the townie dayvig tomorrow. If they're really crafty, they'd worm some way into making his survival looks suspicious so that the dayvig would be forced to lash out at one of his attackers, possibly killing another townie. Hey! Sorta like what you're doing!

FOS: curiouskarmadog

He's confirmed as the dayvig. He's not confirmed scum or town. Even the night won't change that... well, unless he turns up dead in the morning.

you assume too much...all I said is he is not my target come Day 1

Elias wasn't assuming too much, you said he is town in your book until day 2. How it's worded, it does sound like you would be suspicious of him today had he not died. Despite these, right now he's neither town nor scum imo, still right in the center.
Now, Nelly. The only thing I really see is his whole self-vote gambit with his thoughts on the reactions posted afterwards. This gives me a town feel, though had he not given his thoughts on the reactions, it would look scummy to me.

Next time on Posts with Yagami, a look at hermit and gorckat.

[Setael]

The first is where he asks Elias if we should kill vollkan, making it sound like Elias's suggestion.

Can you please provide a reference for this?


Yagami's posts so far have fit quite nicely in with my theory that he and Elias are the scums. The latest defense of Elias was laced with just enough distancing, with a nice healthy noncommital "neither town nor scum" decision on him.

Despite these, right now he's neither town nor scum imo, still right in the center.

I'm definitely still feeling warm and snuggly about my vote on SPAG/Yagami.

[YagamiLight]

ok, well seems to me that vollkan is a town aligned vig, thus the public demostration of his kill. It is in the mafia best interest to keep confirmed townies at a mininum...there is no point for the mafia to take one of us out, when there is a confirmed townie. the mafia wants to have the most unconfirmed townies voting as possible.

Why do you think he's town aligned? One mafioso dead in return for having one be confirmed in the eyes of the town? Seems like a sacrifice any mafia group would be willing to make.

what are you suggesting? We lynch him day 1 and find out?

I said he his town in my book until DAY 2...but if I had money, I would put it on vollkan being NK tonight.

This is where I meant Setael. Elias asks why CKD thinks vollkan is town, just pointing out that there is always the possibility, and CKD assumes that means kill him and find out. I interpretted it as saying we should still watch for scumtells from vollkan just in case, though that doesn't matter know since vollkan was NK'ed (refering to watching for scumtells). Also, I think it looks like I'm budding with him because I just don't agree with a lot of the reasons for the votes on Elias, and don't see anything to make him assuredly town.

ALso, expect a

bonus

when I post Hermit and gorckat .