Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Mgm]

Mirth, I'm not sure Kinetic isn't scum, I just feel there are better candidates to pursue.
If he really is the SK, killing CKD didn't help him one bit, so I don't see him doing it.

Raffles, I find your attitude towards lynching worrying. Yes, lynching can put us in a dire situation, but if we don't, we merely push forward the inevitable. At least lynching means we have a shot at killing scum.

[Raffles]

MGM: please read my analysis again regarding lynching. As long as nothing pops up that screams "I'm a scum!", it would help us to not to lynch this week.

[heatherlou]

I am not the most serious lurker here. I turned my vote on HQ because I thought he was scum, and he was. I don't think that's putting him under a bus as a scum buddy. What that is to me is I had a little doubt towards HQ so I decided to withhold my vote. Mgm called me out on it, and I wanted a lynch, so I voted him.
Kinetic, you were ready to vote HQ to lynch him, then at the last minute you try and turn the lynch around to CKD. When you find you can't get a good bandwagon started, you fly back to HQ, then just kill CKD as the SK. That is scummy in my book.

[Kinetic]

I am not the most serious lurker here. I turned my vote on HQ because I thought he was scum, and he was. I don't think that's putting him under a bus as a scum buddy. What that is to me is I had a little doubt towards HQ so I decided to withhold my vote. Mgm called me out on it, and I wanted a lynch, so I voted him.

So, let me get this straight:

First, you just off-hand say lurking isn't scummy, because there are people lurking more than you.

So just because you say you didn't bus him, you didn't? I don't believe it.

A little doubt? Please, you were completely on HQ's side, and then when things began to turn you did a little dance, and all of a sudden voted for him. Exactly like you say though, MGM called you on it, and you got scared, so you voted.

Kinetic, you were ready to vote HQ to lynch him, then at the last minute you try and turn the lynch around to CKD. When you find you can't get a good bandwagon started, you fly back to HQ, then just kill CKD as the SK. That is scummy in my book.

Ha, so now you try and turn my suspicions back on me? Please. The entire day I found both CKD and HQ scummy. I explained so completely. If I was teamscum with HQ, wouldn't it have made more sense for me to have initially voted CKD? I kept on HQ, and then when things started rolling on HQ, the way CKD reacted really caused alarms to go off in my head. I felt he was even scummier than HQ at that point. So I wanted to see if we could pressure him. I admit, I was wrong about him, but look at the posts. CKD WAS acting scummy as hell, and I wasn't the only one who thought so.

And I'm surprised at how everyone all of a sudden thinks I'm the SK, yesterday everyone thought I was scummy because they thought I was teamscum with CKD... now that that has been proven false everyone is scrambling to find some way I could still be scummy.

I think anyone jumping on me thinking I'm the SK is scummy. Heather, I'm even more convinced now that you are scum. I'm still not sure, mafia or SK, but I'm leaning toward mafia now.

[Mgm]

MGM: please read my analysis again regarding lynching. As long as nothing pops up that screams "I'm a scum!", it would help us to not to lynch this week.

Let's assume for a moment we don't lynch this week. How exactly is that going to help us next week?

[Raffles]

Kinetic: Amount of information we gain from a lynch is very circumstantial, let alone factual conclusions. I agree stagnation is bad, but then that really isn't an exuse to rush a lynch.

To answer your question:

I would prefer it if the SK is lynched before he makes the next kill obviously.
If that is not possible
a: he kills town--> it is imperative that we lynch SK on that week, because the risk of going past lylo is too big
b: he kills scum --> we can breath a sigh of relief, and get on with searching scum with our given at least two extra weeks. If no further mafia is killed, then we need to lynch SK on that third week.

Shit that wasn't answering your question. But it would help me with it.

Anyway, to

actually

answer your question...

If a town is lynched (assuming he is lynched at end of the week) then we'll be left with situation lylo. Assuming Sk picks randomly we can have
1: townie dead. 2mafia 1SK 2town. An ugly situation
2: Scum dead. 1mafia 1SK 3town. A bit better than a: (see above)

If no lynch occured then it would go to a: and b:.

I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?

[Kinetic]

Raffles:

I think what MGM is saying is this-

Lynching when there are 6 people left, and lynching when there are 7 are fundamentally the same. Execpt, if we mislynch with 6 people left, we are even WORSE off than if we mislynch with 7.

Look at this like a normal game: We're effectively at LYLO right now. Hoping that the SK kills a mafia with no lynch is very useless. We need to do the scum hunting ourselves. Its true, if we lynch a townie and the SK also kills a townie, we're in an ugly situation, but honestly, the likeliness of that is low enough where it shouldn't paralyze you from voting (which it hasn't -.-)

I'm sorry, your words and your actions don't line up. You're attacking me for reasons that don't make sense any longer, and still convinced I'm scum... I think you're using me as a target of opportunity, which is extremely scummy.

[Mgm]

What I am wondering about is why he is so keen on no lynch when he believes it is imperative to get rid of the SK. If he really wanted to do that, he should be taking a more pro-active stance.

[Mirth]

The very scenerio that Raffles presents is the reason why I'm now for a lynch.

Raffles: I meant is lurkers = t3h 3v1l, why is your vote on Kinetic, who is most certainly not lurking?

I just got back from a long and horrible day and will do a reread tomorrow. I'm going to

unvote:Kinetic

for now though, because I'm not too thrilled with Heather also attacking him. It seems that Heather only jumps in on stuff after other people have started it. I would like to hear an original opinion from her.

[Raffles]

Right, look. I understand that some of you maybe confused by me. So I'm goling to summarize once and for all.

We need to lynch SK. Simply because it would buy us far longer discussion time. Clearly a week just isn't enough.

But SK isn't just going to say "hi, I'm SK. Lynch me" Infact, I have never been in the game where SK was lynched

because

we were looking to kill the SK. So I'm not entirely confident that SK lynch would happen purely from skill. But hey, we can try. Right?

My vote is on kinetic exactly because of this. He fits my criteria.
1. He was on the wagon when HazQ was lynch -1
2. His stance of wanting lynch asap, even if we can't say for sure that the target is scum.
3. The way he hops around with MGM
4. His interactions with CKD yesterday.

But I see it's not convincing anyone.

My thought is that to lynch someone you believe to be SK is far better plan than to lynch Xyzzy, who is next to hybernation. If I don't see someone worth voting for in active players, of course I would go for someone who is inactive, especially in the game like this. Hence Stewie. I think this answers your question, Mirth.

Now what was I moving onto...

Why I'm saying no lynch is better. Because of situation I laid out above. The worst and best case scenario is better with no lynch at the end of the week respectively. And if such situation arises that we can't lynch a SK or mafia at the end of situation a: then we only have ourselves to blame, don't we? I mean two weeks of high-pace discussion and lynch an innocent townie? C'mon guys.

But, should a confident scum target comes up before the end of the week then that's more than I could ask for. I personally see kinetic as a confident target, unfortunately you guys don't.

MGM: Please refrain from being an arse and accuse me of non-pro-activity (I can't say inactivity because I know that's not what you mean) I've laid out my reasons for why I think kinetic is a SK, I can't do much more than beg (bribe? I still have that cookies and milk) you to believe me for the moment. I also see that you are hardly likely to turn on kinetic (something I've been noting all along). Why is that? Where do you get your belief that kinetic must be town?

[Mgm]

I'm not believing Kinetic is town and I already told you earlier.
I just don't believe the attacks on him are valid and there are plenty of scummy people around.

I've done the maths, and statistically, there's not much difference between lynching and no lynching, but that doesn't take into account and important thing.
We now have 4 townies, 2 mafia and an SK. With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch and that's a number the townies could achieve on their own - with a bit of luck, agreement and no more lurking.

Mod, please get in some replacements and/or prods.

If we no lynch and the SK kills mafia (33%) there's no problem, but if he kills a townie (66%) we get 3 townies, 2 mafia and an SK. That is 6 alive, but still 4 to lynch. In that case, the town needs help from the scum and since the mafia will win with a townie lynch and have great chances with an SK lynch that means all we can hope for is help from the SK.

Also, if we lynch immediately, instead of no lynching first, there is an approximate chance of 14% that we lynch the SK and no longer have to deal with any kills. That chance doesn't improve if we no lynch first.

[Mgm]

Code: Select all

count    |lynch-skkill|nolynch-lynch|nolynchx2|
2T/2M/1SK|      20%   |      25%    |   30%   |
-----------------------------------------------
3T/1M/1SK|      40%   |      50%    |   60%   |
-----------------------------------------------
4T/0M/1SK|       7%   |     8.3%    |   10%   |
-----------------------------------------------
4T/2M/0SK|      33%   |       0%    |    0%   |
3T/2M/0SK|       0%   |     8.3%    |    0%   |
4T/1M/0SK|       0%   |     8.3%    |    0%   |

I see the 2T/2M/1SK as a losing situation for the town, so I don't want to go there. If we no lynch, the chance of it happening increases with 5%. It raises again when we run into a second no lynch either planned or due ot lack of activity - which admittedly, is quite possible.

If we lynch there's a 33% chance of ending up with a dead SK, as opposed to a 16-17% chance with a no lynch first and a 0% chance with two successive no lynches.

With a lynch there's a 40% chance of eradicating a scum group with the second kill. That chances tumbles to 25% with a no lynch first, and to just 10% with two no lynches in a row.

I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?

Yes, I'd rather have a no lynch instead of a dead townie, but I prefer lynching scum to both of those options. You're giving two bad options while ignoring a third, more profitable option.

Together with the fact we're having a hard enough time in getting enough active people together for a lynch now -let alone tomorrow- I think lynching sooner rather than later is the better option.

[Raffles]

I was answering to kinetic's question about whether I prefer townie death to no lynch. It's not my personal opinion of situation, which is quite different if you refer to above. Way to try and set me up there.

[Mgm]

You are the one who quoted the answer to Kinetic's question when I asked you how no lynch would help. That tells me the answer to that question was your personal opinion plus you maintain that nolynching is a good idea.

I see no evidence that that answer is different from your opinion.

[Mgm]

It appears xyzzy is lurking on purpose. He must've received a role PM, but he's posting everywhere but here.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=xyzzy

He's one of the people I'd like to see replaced. We can't afford to have an inactive player around, no matter what his alignment is.

Anyway, since he replaced an inactive Deepfried Ninja, I think we can cross him of the SK suspect list.

[Raffles]

MGM: No.... my position is that if we have a confident scum, it's best to lynch at end of that week Otherwise, if we are nowhere near lynching someone at the end of the week, I'd rather go with no lynch than force one.

[Mgm]

Okay.

Confirm vote: Raffles

[Raffles]

[Mirth]

If I don't see someone worth voting for in active players, of course I would go for someone who is inactive, especially in the game like this. Hence Stewie.

Stewie isn't inactive. Why are you picking on him so much? Sure, I'm not too crazy about his posting but its on par with Heather content and quantity wise.

I also see that you are hardly likely to turn on kinetic (something I've been noting all along). Why is that? Where do you get your belief that kinetic must be town?

This is something I've noticed to. They do seem to be defending each other. But it might not be indicitive of anything at all. (I also don't think they're mafia just because of both of their interactions with Hazzel.)

[quote:"MGM"]Anyway, since he replaced an inactive Deepfried Ninja, I think we can cross him of the SK suspect list. [/quote]

Don't be so sure of this. Prior to August 22 when Pooky announced the replacing, Ninja was also active in all his other threads: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... ried+Ninja

His last post anywhere was in this thread on August 18. (Xyzzy replaced on August 22). It was perfectly possible for Ninja to send in a kill before disapearing completely. Hence I'm not ruling Xyzzy out as the SK just yet. I very highly doubt he's mafia, as lurking isn't really helping the mafia, but I'm not writing of SK.

I'm now doing an individual re-read of Kinetic. Let's see if my opinion changes.

[Raffles]

Not inactive as in dead inactive, but it's either he has far less free time than MGM-I-Kinetic or he is a lurking scum. Thanks for pointing out heather too. I'll look into her once I get some sleep.

[Mirth]

I just did my reread of Kinetic. And I realized why I'm suspicious of him. The first 10 or so posts by him only talk about SK strategy. Then he starts arguing with CKD over whether its better to find the SK, mafia, or whichever happens along. (CKD wants to get rid of the SK first, which, I honestly agree would be better). While it seems that Kinetic is pushing for a scum lynch, he's more clearly pushing for a mafia lynch. (If you look over the argument with CKD, Kinetic doesn't seem to say too much about finding the SK, rather that he thinks he knows who the mafia is and they need to be lynched.) Kinetic is the first to bring up the SK sending the mod PMs in advance. (How would he know this?) Then he starts throwing around opinions of who he thinks is the SK, but his vote doesn't follow. More snark at CKD. Speaks for MGM. Changes opinion of CKD from "mafia" to "either mafia or SK" without an explanation. And that brings me up to where Kinetic asked me to do a reread on him.

Now that I have, I'm going to

vote: Kinetic

with a lot more confidence. Yes, I agree that finding any scum is good, but I his preoccupation with what he would do if he was the SK, and his focus on finding the mafia more so it what worries me.

For the record, I think that the person who killed CKD thought he was scum. If I'm not mistaken that narrows the field to MGM, Kinetic, and myself (unless there was someone else who was also convinced CKD was scum). I know what I am, and while I haven't ruled MGM out as a suspect, I find Kinetic more scummy. I'm also a bit worried about how they seem to be defending each other, but I don't think they're mafia based on Hazzel.

[Mgm]

His last post anywhere was in this thread on August 18. (Xyzzy replaced on August 22). It was perfectly possible for Ninja to send in a kill before disapearing completely. Hence I'm not ruling Xyzzy out as the SK just yet. I very highly doubt he's mafia, as lurking isn't really helping the mafia, but I'm not writing of SK.

In that case both of them seem to be following the strategy of lurking themselves to a win in this particular thread. Since lurking gets them noticed, I'd argue that it wouldn't help them much as SK either, so if they're posting elsewhere, I wouldn't write off either role.

If xyzzy doesn't post or gets replaced, I'm going to vote him. I don't want a player around in end game whom I know nothing about.

[heatherlou]

So, let me get this straight:

First, you just off-hand say lurking isn't scummy, because there are people lurking more than you.

So just because you say you didn't bus him, you didn't? I don't believe it.

A little doubt? Please, you were completely on HQ's side, and then when things began to turn you did a little dance, and all of a sudden voted for him. Exactly like you say though, MGM called you on it, and you got scared, so you voted.

Ha, so now you try and turn my suspicions back on me? Please. The entire day I found both CKD and HQ scummy. I explained so completely. If I was teamscum with HQ, wouldn't it have made more sense for me to have initially voted CKD? I kept on HQ, and then when things started rolling on HQ, the way CKD reacted really caused alarms to go off in my head. I felt he was even scummier than HQ at that point. So I wanted to see if we could pressure him. I admit, I was wrong about him, but look at the posts. CKD WAS acting scummy as hell, and I wasn't the only one who thought so.

And I'm surprised at how everyone all of a sudden thinks I'm the SK, yesterday everyone thought I was scummy because they thought I was teamscum with CKD... now that that has been proven false everyone is scrambling to find some way I could still be scummy.

I think anyone jumping on me thinking I'm the SK is scummy. Heather, I'm even more convinced now that you are scum. I'm still not sure, mafia or SK, but I'm leaning toward mafia now.

Well, I don't know any other way to prove to you I wasn't bussing HQ.
And please let me know when I was 100% completely for HQ? You make it sound like I was a freakin cheerleader all over HQ. I was not. I was more passionate about voting for him then I ever was when I was unsure of his scumminess.
If I was HQ's scumbuddy, there would be no reason for me to be so vehement against him. I could just be kind of wavering and then vote for him. Would still cast suspicion away from me without giving me a concrete position. What you are proposing I did by throwing my fellow scum under a bus so completely just wouldn't be a good strategy for a scummy person.

I believe the case against me presented by Kinetic is clearly to get some pressure off of him. He's, in all aspects, trying to make me look more extreme than I really am. Raffles, you just stated you have not seen me come up with an original opinion. How can I be extreme and at the same time not come up with an original opinion?

vote: Kinetic

[Mirth]

Well, I don't know any other way to prove to you I wasn't bussing HQ.
And please let me know when I was 100% completely for HQ? You make it sound like I was a freakin cheerleader all over HQ. I was not. I was more passionate about voting for him then I ever was when I was unsure of his scumminess.
If I was HQ's scumbuddy, there would be no reason for me to be so vehement against him. I could just be kind of wavering and then vote for him. Would still cast suspicion away from me without giving me a concrete position. What you are proposing I did by throwing my fellow scum under a bus so completely just wouldn't be a good strategy for a scummy person.

I believe the case against me presented by Kinetic is clearly to get some pressure off of him. He's, in all aspects, trying to make me look more extreme than I really am. Raffles, you just stated you have not seen me come up with an original opinion. How can I be extreme and at the same time not come up with an original opinion?

vote: Kinetic

You were nowhere near vehement about Hazzel. You have a total of 13 posts. Of those 3, maybe 4, are anti-Hazzel. And these were made only after other people expressed anti-Hazzel sentiments. I maintain that your attacks only come after other people begin them.

Also I really don't like the fact that you decided to put Kinetic at L-1 right now. While I do think that Kinetic is the SK, nobody but the SK and Kinetic know this for sure (whether they are the same person or not really doesn't matter to the case of anyone knowing anything for certain.) This is Monday. Our new deadline, I believe, is Saturday evening. If Kinetic isn't the SK (I think he is, but I could be wrong just as I was wrong with my opinion of CKD), opening the door for an early lynch could be very bad, as anyone could be justified in hammering, whether the real SK, mafia, or an over-eager townie.

Therefore, I'm going to

unvote:Kinetic

for the time being (unless I get a stronger scum vibe from someone else, my vote will return to Kinetic Friday evening.) While I do want a dead SK, and am willing to risk a mislynch to a no-lynch, I am not willing to risk a premature mislynch.

That said, Heather, I would like to hear your opinions off all the players still alive.

[Mgm]

I believe the case against me presented by Kinetic is clearly to get some pressure off of him.

How exactly is that scummy? If I'm attacked I defend myself and, like Kinetic, try to get another wagon going. I do that when I'm scum, but I do it when I'm town too and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kinetic did the same.