Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[dybeck]

Yea I might tomorrow. After some disscussion and I have had my beauty sleep!

I'll wait for some more disscussion before I make my opinions.

I have evr so slight gut feelings on a few people but in the next few pages I will express my views on people.

Not good enough. Not good enough by half.

vote: VampanezeHunter

[dybeck]

Sorry if this seems a bit offtopic. I've been pondering this apparently accepted scum tell for a while and I seriously doubt its value.

It's not the best scumtell. And it's not 90% scum. But claiming early hints at defensiveness and panic that are much stronger scumtells. And townie is the safest claim of all.

It's a bit of a scumtell. Do I think it applies here? Probably not.

[dybeck]

He could be an asset he could be a liability no way to tell.

If he's gonna go claiming with no provocation then he's definitely a liability.

[dybeck]

Let's not let those without a wagon on them just skate by.

spurgistan, dybeck, what are your thought?

Skate by indeed. How very dare you.

There's not really a lot to go on. But lurking in plain sight is a genuine scumtell. And Vampaneze has done it in the worst possible way.

Also, Oman and Vampaneze's attacks on each other look like two scum putting distance between themselves because it looks like one of them is gonna get busted.

I'm pretty happy with my vote where it is.

[dybeck]

I can't beleive that everyone thinks scumhunting while under attack is scummy. If I was scum (as I've said before) staying alive is a number one priority. Dybeck, I don't think your situation is logical as to go after eachother D1 to the point that one of us gets lynched would be dumb if we were scum.

Don't get cute with me. Scum distancing happens in every game ever played. Please don't try and pretend it doesn't.

Also, nobody thinks that 'scumhunting under attack' is scummy. 'Jumping on easy bandwagons to save your own ass' is scummy and

that's

what you're being accused of.

FOS: Oman

for misrepresentation.

[dybeck]

For the record, I accused you of distancing. Everyone else is accusing you of jumping on easy bandwagons.

[dybeck]

If Oman and Vampaneze

do

end up being scum together, can somebody please remind me that spurgistan tried to set up a third bandwagon in post 153.

I'm not trying to run Spurgistan up, but any of us could well be dead by the time we find out VampanezeHunter and Oman's alignment, and someone living needs to have picked up on it.

Dr. Blackstrike - a townie's first job

is

to stay alive. If all townies stay alive Day 1, we get a scum. I don't think we should really be encouraging our townies to die at this stage, and certainly not gracefully. The more fuss and trouble townies make before dying, the more we see the true colors of those who are trying so hard to lynch them, and the more info we get for Day 2.

I have an open question to the group. Is there anyone who is unhappy with

both

the current bandwagons?

[dybeck]

Yes I know you clarified this later, but you're first quote clearly states that you are also accusing him of bandwagoning.

Umm... it really doesn't.

Some others accused him of bandwagoning. I just pointed out the accusation, and the fact that he hadn't answered the points that were put to him.

[dybeck]

- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?

Why would we want to lynch Vampaneze without hearing anything from him?

[dybeck]

At the moment I'm hoping to get out of nightkill because I'm a likely lynch. (The mafia doesn't want to kill lynch bait, right?)

Now the fact that I've said that means it won't work, right? Maybe yes and maybe no. We'll see.

This is quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia.

You're deliberately acting scummy so you don't get nightkilled? And now... when miraculously you don't get nightkilled, this is going to be your excuse for the rest of the game?

No way. No way in the world.

unvote, vote: Dr. "I lie about powerroles" Blackstrike

[dybeck]

Dr. B, is your claimed powerrole one that you can prove, if you were left alive tonight?

[dybeck]

If he's a provable protown powerrole, then yeah, I'm trying to keep him alive.

Why, are you in the habit of lynching proven protown powerroles?

[dybeck]

At this point anyone who says I don't look scummy looks scummy.

-Doc "And that is that is all I'm going to say about that" Blackstrike

Huh?

[dybeck]

I'm not feeling this originality wagon

[dybeck]

I'm not feeling this originality wagon

Ok let me respond to this in a two parter

1) Players who defend another player unless they know 100% they are innocent had better be able to deal with the consequences if that said person ends up being scum

2) WHY aren't you feeling it? I do not like defending somebody with ZERO evidence to why

a) it's a bad choice

b) who's a better one

I'll give you a chance to respond to these before I officially put a FoS on you.

1) If he ends up scum, I'm making a mistake. But this is the problem with being the uninformed majority - we're uninformed. I don't think trying to threaten me into not defending someone for whom I see no evidence in favor of him being scum is very protown. FOS me all you want, but I'm going to post my honest opinions about people regardless of your threatening overtones.

2)a) the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum. That's it.

b) You and Dr. Blackstrike. The two I've been voting all game.

[dybeck]

Ryan is overly aggressive on a perceived weak link.

Vampaneze was clearly lurking in plain sight (we've been over this)

and this -

Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything?

is blatant misrepresentation.

unvote, revote: Ryan

[dybeck]

It seems vamp isn't posting on another game too, so he might have just walked out and quit. It would be great if we could get a replacement fast.

Ryan already replaced VampanezeHunter. They're one and the same

[dybeck]

Terrific... not only are we down one townie, but we end up with almost no info tomorrow. Even if you'd gotten lynched we would have gotten info from seeing who jumped on your bandwagon.

It's morons like you that make this game so frustrating.

[dybeck]

Wow this is great, first we get a shortened D1, now it looks like there's probably a SK in the game.

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

vote: shaft.ed

[dybeck]

Actually, there could be another candidate. Let me have a think.

unvote

[dybeck]

I really hated your comment along the lines of "Oh great... we have a serial killer." and you've been keeping low key all game.

It just sounded like something a serial killer would say.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that you're a serial killer playing innocent. However, our day would be much more productive if we left you alive and concentrated on finding mafia. Otherwise they'll be too strong a voting block tomorrow and we'll have no chance of getting a lynch. Also, I think that if the scum are sensible they'll heed this and do you themselves tonight.

[dybeck]

I'm still extreemely suspicious of A) Dybeck for that SK comment, which his reasoning is severly flawed (in fact I can think of about 3-4 other scenarios which make more sense).

Why not share them with the town?

One thing I'd point out is that an SK would usually open with "Hmm.. a protown vig" to leave the claim open later.

I'm not accusing you of deceit, but this statement is actually wrong. The first person to mention a role after it's been revealed, or done good work, is very frequently it. And that's a real tell that you can take to the bank.

I love the fact that you'd vote someone for being pro-SK though. Like they could be in a scum group with him

Seriously though, if we lynch shaft.ed today, we are left with 7 alive tomorrow, and it's highly likely that 3 of them are mafia. Which would mean that it would only take one mistake, and we're dead.

We need to find mafia today, giving them a probably voting block of 2 out of 6 tomorrow, which is a lot better for us. Seriously, shaft.ed can wait.

Does any of this make sense? I am honestly just trying to act in the best interests of the town. I know it's counterintuitive to leave an SK alive, but it's a numbers game, and it makes sense to do it here.

[dybeck]

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that you should

not

be lynched.

Oman, none of your scenarios are remotely likely in a game this size, with three vanilla townies already revealed. We're looking at basic roles here, I guarantee it. Also, you need to reread my post and check your math in your last post.

[dybeck]

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

[dybeck]

Can somebody please tell me why are we going for the tracker and not the scum?

Is it upside-down day? Should I be walking around with shoes on my hand and gloves on my feet?

I'd also point out that originality was all very vocal yesterday and nearly got himself lynched. The fact that he's so quiet today smacks to me of someone who's received a serious talking to by his scummates overnight.

MOD

: May we have a vote count?

[dybeck]

100% would be a bit of an exaggeration, but no, I don't really see any reason to doubt it.

Certainly I don't think I want to lynch AlyG, and I'm a little bit surprised so many people do.

[dybeck]

No way. Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.

If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

On Sat 15th you were even claiming carrotcake's death must have been because he'd scared a scum.

Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die.

[dybeck]

By the way, the reason originality claimed vig is because he knows he'd be counterclaimed if he claimed cop, and he knows that a doc claim is ridiculous because his target died.

[dybeck]

You really find originality's claim remotely plausible?

Are you kidding? That's mindblowing! You really think that a pro-town vig could possibly have found carrotcake the scummiest player yesterday?

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

You backed originality into a corner, and managed to actually get pretty decent proof on him with a VERY POOR claim. Please don't fail to capitalize on it now!

[dybeck]

If Orig is scum, the setup is 6:3:1. A town lynch today leaves us at 5:3:1.

Two town kills overnight leave us at 3:3:1 and we've basically lost this game.

We need to entertain this possibility, especially in light of the fact that originality was forced into his claim, and it simply doesn't hold water.

Originality, I'm still waiting for you to point out one thing that was remotely scummy about carrotcake yesterday please.

[dybeck]

So... originality... did you think of a reason why you targeted our most pro-town player yet?

[dybeck]

For a while I thought vollkan actually believed what he's been saying.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum, and the fact is that Vollkan is defending him in the face of the fact orig has:

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise
2) made a claim that just isn't plausible.
3) made slips yesterday.

just makes me believe that orig is mafia, and vollkan is his scummate. Vollkan is clutching at straws trying to prove something that's highly unlikely, using highly unlikely scenarios.

FOS: Vollkan

,

FOS: Anyone who doesn't take any notice when a protown power-role outs himself because he's found a scum

Honestly guys, lynches do not get any easier than this. You need to think.

[dybeck]

Sorry... have been out of town for the weekend... I thought I'd have net access but it turned out i didn't. Discussion doesn't appear to have suffered anyway.

Oman... in answer to your question... I still don't have any reason to disbelieve AlyG's claim... and I still wish people would think again about just how wildly implausible it is that a pro-town vig would have targeted carrotcake.

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

[dybeck]

Dybeck... after i claimed you immediately voted originality while completely ignoring the other roles that he could possibly be.[/b]

I didn't ignore any of the other roles he could be. I considered them all, and eliminated them one by one. I've stated the reasons for eliminating most of them. There simply is no other role that originality can have to my mind. If you lynch me today and leave him alive, I'd urge you to at least PLEASE get him to agree to have his kill directed.

He's mafia/SK (I strongly suspect mafia), and if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town.

[dybeck]

Shaft.ed, my point is that there really

were

no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

If I voted anyone other than originality, it would be purely for the reason he used the word "antecessor", which is cool

[dybeck]

What would you have claimed then, originality, had you been mafia?

I'm intrigued.

[dybeck]

Do you think people would have believed watcher?

More than vig? Seems pretty unlikely in a game this size, no? Why would people find it more plausible than vig?

What is it about a vig claim that would have made you think it was an inferior claim?

[dybeck]

No vig in your situation would have hammered Carrotcake, so a vig claim would be a little more plausible if a vig had been in your situation.

And the point is, your primary aim was not to damage the town, your primary aim was to stay alive. Particularly if you're the SK and not mafia.

And I'm not asking whether your claim is as plausible as AlyG's. You've already told us you believe AlyG. I'm pointing out that there were no plausible claims in your situation, and that you did the best you could in your situation. Clearly a tracker claim was not an option for you.

[dybeck]

If I were scum, I'd have killed carrotcake.

Too quiet to be likely to get doctor protection. Quiet enough to have been keeping low to be protecting a power role, yet always actively scumhunting.

Good town player.

[dybeck]

He's mafia/SK (I strongly suspect mafia), and if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town.

After his judgment yesterday, I am not trusting him with making kills. It's pretty damn ironic that you are suspicious of him and think he is scum because he killed a very pro-town player, but now you WANT him to kill.

What an egregious bit of misrepresentation. I don't want him to kill. I want him to hang. I've been EXCEPTIONALLY clear about this from the moment he was outed.

All I was saying is that if you insist on leaving scum alive, we MUST take steps to limit the harm that it would do. If we have a killer under our control, we may as well use it. It would be almost like having a real vig.

[dybeck]

Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "No way!"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "Dybeck's looking scummy to me."
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "I think we should kill Dybeck"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "C'mon! We have to lynch Dybeck!"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "Dybeck's right... Originality's claim is bogus... I wonder why he wasn't playing well earlier."
Dybeck:

[dybeck]

I'm glad you feel there's some variety in my play, because it just feels like I haven't posted anything other than "Originality is scum because his claim is implausible and no pro-town vig would have targeted carrotcake" since you busted him.

Obviously something in the way I phrased it the seventh or eighth time struck a chord with someone

[dybeck]

I'm confused as to how the discussion about orig's potential scum role being focused on him being an SK.

I find it far easier to believe he's mafia, simply because of the number of people who've rallied behind him. I hope he's mafia, because if he is we have a huge amount of information to go on tomorrow.

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig. I'd also be grateful if nobody else other than originality answers this question for him, for (hopefully) obvious reasons.

[dybeck]

I'm confused as to how the discussion about orig's potential scum role being focused on him being an SK.

I find it far easier to believe he's mafia, simply because of the number of people who've rallied behind him. I hope he's mafia, because if he is we have a huge amount of information to go on tomorrow.

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig. I'd also be grateful if nobody else other than originality answers this question for him, for (hopefully) obvious reasons.

Did you see my question?

[dybeck]

One more thing... I've done some maths...

Bear in mind that it's pretty safe to assume 3 mafia - anything else is highly unlikely in terms of game balance.

Now, let's assume for a sec that originality IS scum.

If we mislynch today, we're down to 8. If mafia and SK both hit town tonight, it's 3 mafia, 2 town and 1 SK and we lose.

If mafia hits SK and SK hits town, it's 3 mafia and 3 town and we lose.

Which means that if originality IS scum, and he's relatively certain the SK can hit town, he will not be guided by us tonight and town will already have lost. So the whole guiding originality's kill thing was probably a non-starter - sorry for suggesting it.

[dybeck]

If you're mafia, that'd be OK for us. If you're the SK, we lose like I pointed out.

[dybeck]

If you're mafia, that'd be OK for us. If you're the SK, we lose like I pointed out.

Actually no we don't if he's SK and gets NK'd and say we mis-lynch today that will leave:
4:3:0 if he SK's town or
5:2:0 if he SK's mafia

And this is assuming wcs where there are three scum and a SK.

We have 9 players left. A lynch, a SK kill and a mafia kill leaves 6 players, not seven. The scenarios you've listed are what would happen if we went with a no-lynch.

[dybeck]

shaft.ed - we can be 99% sure there's a 3-man mafia. Anything else would just be broken. We can argue about the existence of a serial killer, but there will be a 3-man mafia. You won't find any remotely normal 12-person setup on this site without a 3-man mafia.

[dybeck]

Wow. How broken. No wonder DragonsofSummer hasn't modded a game before or since.

Mod: is this your first game as mod?

[dybeck]

Can I make one thing clear?

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game. Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

[dybeck]

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's misrepresented me on several occasions, and posted mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect, or somehow not hunting scum. Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide.

There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.

[dybeck]

I don't think Streeflo is incompetent at all.

Because I don't think there are only two mafia.

[dybeck]

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

[dybeck]

Day 2, Votecount #18!

dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality
Oman (1) - Gemelli

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Wow... Even the mod has a list of 4 suspects.

[dybeck]

It's because they've backed up originality even though failing to lynch him will most likely cause us to lose.

They're leading the town down the doomed path of not lynching originality, and I believe this is because they are his scummates.

They've told us they believe that originality goes out killing obviously protown players of an evening and yet could still be a protown player. For this, I believe that they are mafia. It would certainly be interesting to see whether originality would bump off his scummates to stay alive.

[dybeck]

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

[dybeck]

Vollkan, sorry that I gave you the impression that I think originality is town.

I thought that I'd made my position overtly clear but I do not think originality is town, I think he is scum and needs to die. If you want me to say it again, I'm happy to do so, but I do feel like I've said it a lot.

[dybeck]

You seem to think you've found evidence that I've made a slip that shows I believe myself and originality to be on the same side?

Is that right?

[dybeck]

Vollkan... I'm confused... which of the following are you trying to prove?

1) Me and orig are both town. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to only the town players in the game, and that I secretly believe originality to be town, and I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

2) Me and orig are both scum. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to a scum group that contains me and originality, and that I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

3) Me and originality are on different sides, but then why would I use the word "we" for any other reason that to describe the whole lot of us as a group? And what's your point?

[dybeck]

Yeah you might have to explain it again. I'm just not sure where you're going.

"We" just means "the remaining 9 of us". And "the other scum group" means "the one that originality is not part of".

I would have thought that the moment you found yourself trying to prove that originality and I were neither both town, both scum, nor one of each (options 1, 2, and 3 in my last post), you might have realised you were on a red herring.

[dybeck]

1) Originality is "lost" to the game regardless of his alignment. I am not assuming Orig is pro-town. Orig is scum and there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever. I'm not sure how many different ways I have to say this to you vollkan. Because short of translating it into other languages, I've stated "I'm certain that originality is scum" in about as many different ways as I know.

2) The outcome, if followed to the letter, was that orig gets to choose from a number of options. He'd made it quite clear (post 741) that he'll kill me. You need to realise exactly what it means to give originality a free hand here. It means that both me and originality die tonight. This is what everyone's voting for or against.

What I see here is the possibility you have included under 3 but have sought to avoid by trying to back-pedal what you meant by "we". That is: You are mafia and Orig is town. "We" means "the town". Your post, therefore, only makes sense if it reads:
dybeck wrote:

Which means that tonight

[WE ARE] likely to lose (ie. sustain a negative consequence from the elimination of ) originality to the [MAFIA] and [ME TO THE MAFIA]

So... you've found hard evidence that orig and I are both mafia, yet:

1) You think that it's entirely plausible that orig and I are on the same side, despite the fact that I want him lynched so much.
2) You still think it's a good idea to let orig have a free hand with his kill tonight.
3) You still wouldn't consider voting originality.

Is this basically it? You're sure this couldn't all be a red herring? You sure this isn't just a waste of everyone's time?

[dybeck]

If we're going to give originality that much freedom, we'd be better off just letting him have a free hand.

Anything else does not give us the benefit of controlling a possible scum, but does give the other scum group info about his actions that they really don't need to have.

I say we either give orig a specific order, or we give him a free hand and remind him that at least one of us has his eyes on him.

[dybeck]

You say "If we give Orig this much freedom we'd be better off giving him a free hand". What would be the ideal scenario for you then?

I'm still almost certain that originality is scum. And he should be lynched. Blah blah blah blah blah... yeah i know... you don't care any more.

However, if we let him live, we should tell him EXACTLY what to do. That way, we limit the damage he can do if he is scum and, frankly, we limit the damage he could do if he were town. After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town, and still hasn't managed to come up with a single scummy thing his poor victim said, I think it's best that we don't even let a pro-town originality loose with his pro-town strangling-rope that he happened to bring onto this plane.

Failing

that

, the next best thing is to give him free reign. If we give him, say, three or four choices, a scum originality (which, whatever you think about me, you have to admit, is still a strong possibility) is still able to pick any one of them that happens to be town, yet still appear to be doing the town's bidding. If he has a completely free reign, we get a look at how he's thinking, and you can get a clearer idea of how scummy he is tomorrow.

So...
first choice... lynch a scum...
second choice... don't lose an additional pro-town player overnight...
third choice... get some info for tomorrow...

[dybeck]

I dunno... it worked for him last night

[dybeck]

What's this supposed to mean? How are we in any way in a concensus?

We have at least three, probably four scum in a town of nine. At least two players are lurking. That means that there are potentially more scum than town posting at the moment.

If you're pro-town, why do you think we don't need your contribution?

[dybeck]

After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town

If you're going to keep this spewing this rhetorical garbage, can you at least pretend like you have the facts to back it up.

Carrotcake wasn't protown?

Or... has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet? Something better than originality's "I feel it in my gut" story?

[dybeck]

I don't think for a SECOND she was the likely choice for vig

Well... if you believe orig's claim, this is exactly what you do have to think.

And carrotcake was about as protown as it gets. Your scumdar must just be off.

[dybeck]

Frankly, I'm puzzled as to why Dybeck has been ignoring me (as in, barely acknowledging my presence) since I replaced into the game, especially when he had been suspecting Dr. BlackStrike pretty heavily on Day 1. It's not like I haven't been providing fodder for discussion or comment ...

What did you want me to say? I don't have any really strong opinions about you. You could be scum for all I know, but I think there are better lynch targets out there.

[dybeck]

vollkan... how can you be SO convinced originality is town that you're willing to fight the whole town just so that he gets his kill tonight?

And how can you advocate not lynching originality if he does another carrotcake? It's crazy!

[dybeck]

I want to know something dybeck:

Do you think Orig is mafia or SK? In both scenarios, who would you peg as the scum?

As I've said, I think orig is probably mafia. Too many people are defending him for at least one or two of them not to be informed.

SK a little bit less easy. Oman's "lynch anyone but me" attitude throughout the course of this game pins him as a good candidate.

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

[dybeck]

It does sound like a lot of effort to express opinions that I'm not sure about to a player who's already made up his mind, yeah.

[dybeck]

Yeah I know it bugs you. And I should probably be buttering you up. It seems that when I respect you, you go off the idea of lynching me, and when I shine you on, you tirelessly campaign for my lynch.

But giving you information is counter-productive, since you've apparently determined to believe the exact opposite of what I think. So I'm afraid I'm going to have to continue to shine you on and risk the fact that my bandwagon will grow.

When I think you're really listening, and not just seeking words of mine to twist in order to get me lynched, I'll engage with you.

It's mindboggling that you think originality, who we know for a fact strangled a townie last night, is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli.

[dybeck]

You never meant to imply that originalty is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli?

So originality is what? More scummy? Equally scummy?

[dybeck]

Because we've lost one townie, I don't want to lose another. Next time it could be a power role.

Originality, give me your word that you'll no-kill tonight, as almost everyone has said that they believe is the best idea, and I'll not mention your lynch again.

Do you agree with the town that we should no-kill? Or not?

If not, do you have a specific reason why you think you're right and we're wrong?

[dybeck]

And what use would they make of this information?

What advantage does it give us to have you killing unpredictably?

[dybeck]

I don't think we can necessarily count on the mafia/SK killing originality just because it suits the town.

[dybeck]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

[dybeck]

Dybeck: I haven't seen you answer this question directly, so I'll ask it. In post 743, what you said was "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?" What exactly did you mean by "the other scum group?" Do you believe that we have two mafia factions?

We had two kills... I was expecting a scum group and an SK, but I suppose 2 2-man mafias (mafiae?) is not out of the question.

[dybeck]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

[dybeck]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

Dybeck, the "town consensus" is effectively the same meaning as "will of the town". What the hell are you talking about here?

I'm asking him whether if "the will of the town" were to tell him exactly who to kill (or not) tonight, would he be happy to go along with the choice of player that was decided by "the concensus of the town".

[dybeck]

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

A lot depends on whether orig is SK or mafia, because if he's SK, your defending him and attacking me looks a lot less scummy.

And yes, I'm aware that my list consists of the three people currently trying to get me lynched. The irony is not lost on me.

[dybeck]

It certainly screams scum.

The traditional gun/knife of the mafia/SK are both absent, so either weapon could belong to either.

Why do you ask?

[dybeck]

Dybeck, you do realise that if Orig is scum he is not going to follow the consensus, right?

Yes. I'd like to see him do exactly that. Because then you would see that he is scum. If you give him a few people to choose from, you effectively allow him to pick a townie with impunity, and you'll have gathered no information from tonight.

Dybeck, if Orig were able to commit suicide (I am pretty sure that he can), would he take #1 position on your list?

Orig is my first pick for scum, although I think it would be a bit pointless asking him to commit suicide, because he wouldn't do it. Regardless of what side he's on, it would be a poor play for him.

[dybeck]

Changing subjects, I will do the will of the town, EXCEPT if said will involves me killing myself or AlyG, because those are the only people I KNOW to be town, and in that case I would assume to know better then the town and make my own decision. Other then that, I follow your orders.

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

[dybeck]

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

Dybeck, we've been over this.

If he is mafia, he will kill anyone (aiming for the SK) regardless of what we say.

And if we order him to NoKill, and he doesn't follow, then we know we've got a scum.

If we tell him he's allowed to kill more pro-town players, then he'll just come back tomorrow and say "Gosh, I was convinced xxx was scum. How careless of me." again, and we'll be ANOTHER pro-towner down, with no more info on originality, and we'll be at lynch or lose. Unless the other scum group forego originality, in which case we'll ALREADY have lost.

[dybeck]

In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

This is interesting too. Do go on.

[dybeck]

How does the math look if we no-lynch?

[dybeck]

You're totally right that Day 1 was more or less a complete loss, but I think we have a lot of voting info to go on, and this day is far from over yet.

I'm not advocating a no-lynch, but we know it's the only way to definitely avoid a loss tonight, so I think it's worth running the numbers if anyone can be bothered. It doesn't really make sense to dismiss anything out of hand. We may as well figure out the implications of a no-lynch before deciding. If it doesn't work, we won't do it.

[dybeck]

So how about it, originality, you down with a "no kill" tonight?

[dybeck]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

[dybeck]

Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

[dybeck]

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

[dybeck]

Yeah I might have been a little overenthusiastic about you at the beginning of the day.

You did let out a whopper of a SK tell, but you've been genuinely pro-town since. One swallow does not make a summer I guess.

[dybeck]

Another SK candidate? I don't know... Lucienne maybe?

I don't pretend to have all the answers.

I'm just 100% convinced that originality is mafia, and a readthrough of his relationship with Oman is enough to convince me that Oman is probably scum with him.

And of course I'm waiting for objections. If people still want discussion time, we should have it.

Take a readthrough of Oman and orig's posts. They've both spent a lot of time talking about a lot of things, and have notably avoided talking about the issues that face each other.

[dybeck]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you. the evidence is all there in my posts, and my maths is good. I'm afraid that you've let the fact that you don't like me blind you to the idea that I might be town, which in turn has blinded you to the fact that i could be right about orig's claim. If you read back with an open mind, you might even see.

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still.

Oh what a great idea! I never thought about pushing for Orig's lynch! Maybe I didn't make it very clear at any point so far, but Orig is scum and needs to be lynched. However, this town has made it abundantly clear that they have no interest in lynching Orig today. If I can't get a lynch on the man i'm 100% on, I'll settle for the man I'm 80% on.

There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You'd be surprised how, after yelling "ORIGINALITY US SCUM AND WE NEED TO LYNCH HIM" in every way you know how, FOR 30 PAGES, how much you don't feel the need to carry on.

3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

I don't know. I think you're possibly the third mafioso. Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

At risk of repeating myself, but yes I agree. It doesn't make more sense at all. We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in. I've managed to neuter him for tonight, having made him promise there'll be no more strangulations, and I'm going to have to settle for that.


And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever

[dybeck]

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

I'd also point out that originality was all very vocal yesterday and nearly got himself lynched. The fact that he's so quiet today smacks to me of someone who's received a serious talking to by his scummates overnight

Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.

If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die.

the reason originality claimed vig is because he knows he'd be counterclaimed if he claimed cop, and he knows that a doc claim is ridiculous because his target died.

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

You backed originality into a corner, and managed to actually get pretty decent proof on him with a VERY POOR claim. Please don't fail to capitalize on it now!

Originality, I'm still waiting for you to point out one thing that was remotely scummy about carrotcake yesterday please.

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise

Oman... in answer to your question... I still don't have any reason to disbelieve AlyG's claim... and I still wish people would think again about just how wildly implausible it is that a pro-town vig would have targeted carrotcake.

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

If I were scum, I'd have killed carrotcake.

Too quiet to be likely to get doctor protection. Quiet enough to have been keeping low to be protecting a power role, yet always actively scumhunting.

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig.

There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

Vollkan... I've tried to make a case for orig. My God how I've tried. Please feel free to ignore me and campaign for my lynch. But please, god, please, don't tell me I haven't tried to make a case for orig's lynch. It makes me want to cry.

[dybeck]

As I posted earlier... any other claim but vig results in him being lynched before he even gets a chance to get to the possibility of a nightkill.

Doctor claim fails because his target died.

Cop claim fails because he'd obviously be counter-claimed, and he'd be lynched.

Tracker claim fails because we wouldn't have two.

Townie claim fails because he had a night action.

His only slim hope of survival was a vig claim, which would explain why he was at the site of the murder with a garotte wire in his hand.

Anything more exotic would have been laughed out of court.

His only real alternative was roleblocker - but then, just like vig/SK, this is a role that's as often scum as it is town. If he had to make a claim of a role that cast aspersions over his alignment (which he obviously did), he would be ten times better to choose the one that tallies with the fact his target died.

It may look like a suicidal claim, but it was clearly his only chance of surviving the day, let alone the night.

Put yourself in the position of SK/mafia originality. What would YOU have claimed?

[dybeck]

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.
2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything
3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.
4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon
5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)
6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.
7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia
8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)
9)

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

10) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

I'm sorry that you have to build a case based upon lies and misrepresentations. It actually demeans you as a player, because I think you're more than capable of getting me to lynch -1 without doing so.

1) Fair cop. I over-reacted. Saying "Gosh! A serial killer!" is a huge SK tell. In fact, it's the biggest SK tell. However, I've already retracted my assertion. Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

2) Wanting to lynch mafia over lynching the SK is NOT anti-town. This is blatant falsehood, as anyone who read my posts about it at the time will have seen me say. If we lynch the SK today, we are in Lynch or Lose for the remainder of the game. If we can find mafia - we should do it. It's not anti-town to say so.

3) Another lie. I'll drop the hammer on either of Oman or originality. I don't think it's wrong at all. Unless anyone has any objection.

4) You infer that I haven't already said that I think orig will kill tonight. I've said in very clear terms that I think he'll kill, and more specifically, that I think he'll kill me. I think we should lynch him before he gets a chance. However, at least we can lynch him if he does. His group are either neutered, or caught.

5) You posted reasons why orig can't be scum? For real?!

6) ORIG IS SCUM! I'M RIGHT TO HAVE A SINGULAR FOCUS!

7) Another lie. I'm relatively certain Orig is mafia. And I've said this a lot.

8)-10) Wishy-washy attitudes? Too much certainty? What would you have me do? I'm afraid I don't have any strong read on anyone other than orig and AlyG. I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

Perhaps posting "100% certain misled you". There's a chance I'm wrong, but it's less than 0.5%. To the nearest percent, there's 100% chance orig is scum.

We found him killing a townie, for god's sake. Your continued defence of him just makes you look stupid, imo.

[dybeck]

Could you restate your arguments for Orig being vig please?

Because all I'm seeing is desperate attempts to get me lynched.

[dybeck]

I feel like I should be going "Yeah! See!" but I don't understand.

[dybeck]

Relative noob???

Relative to whom????

[dybeck]

He's the only person that I'm certain is scum. I'd rather go with someone I'm sure about than anyone I'm less than sure about. Then I say we let the other side take a potshot and maybe hit another scum. And frankly, if you asked me to name a serial killer here in this game I'd be completely stabbing in the dark.

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today. And if by any chance the SK doesn't go for orig, perhaps because he looks like an easy lynch tomorrow, the mafia could end up being such a huge voting block tomorrow that they'll be hard to argue against - the entire town will have to agree on the same scum member to get a good lynch.

Besides, my only reasoning for working on the assumption that he's mafia is that he's got such support from some people. It's been hard, at points, to accept that these people could not be his scummates. He could as easily be the SK as several other people in this game.

Whichever way this day goes, I'm pretty pleased with it. I think that whoever we lynch, and whoever gets nightkilled, myself included, everyone here has shown their colours so clearly that we'll be able to pick off the rest of the mafia pretty easily. The SK might be a lot tougher, but if we focus on the mafia, we have a couple of days to pick up some more clues.

[dybeck]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them. We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

[dybeck]

Really? You're accepting my point that originality is probably mafia because of the way he's being backed up by his scummates?

[dybeck]

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

[dybeck]

I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate.

[dybeck]

I would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck are Nked or gain new evidence for/against them by day four.

dybeck does that change your opinion of Korlash?

Korlash looks like a good player. If he'd been in the role since Day 1, I probably would have no clue that he could be scum. However, I think I've seen enough from Oman to have made up my mind.

I'm still 70%-80% sure that lynching Oman would not be something we regret doing.

[dybeck]

Yay! People are starting to look at lynches that are not me!

Congrats everyone!

[dybeck]

OK... I'm sorry that it's come to this. I tried to put in as clear terms as I could.

Originality is scum.

It should be enough for you that he was found with a rope in his hand, standing over the dead body of somebody who was clearly town. It appears that this is not the case, since I'm the one at L-1.

Therefore you should know that he was also the subject of my cop investigation last night, which turned him up guilty.

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

[dybeck]

We got next to no information from yesterday. A lot of people thought they were on to a lot of things that I just flatly disagreed with, and a lot of things that I just didn't think we had any information to prove. It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus. I carried on applying pressure in other directions early this day because there was nothing to be gained by another short day. In hindsight, I'm really happy that I played it exactly this way, since I'm of the opinion that I've pretty much got everybody nailed with alignments today. If we fail to win this, I'll be amazed.

I'm still happy that Oman/Korlash is probably scum. I'm pretty confident that it would still be a scum lynch, and if I hadn't come out, I'd have still thought it was a successful day, because I think we'd have nailed a scum, and I'd be certain of another investigation.

However, a Korlash lynch was looking decreasingly likely, and a Dybeck lynch looked like the way this day was going, and when it became OK to put me at lynch -1, something needed to be done.

And obviously

unvote, vote: originality

[dybeck]

Shaft.ed, I've tried banging on about originality in every post. It didn't work.

I'm pretty sure we'll lynch originality now, and if we don't, it'll be pretty clear who's responsible for the mislynch.

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

[dybeck]

Huh?

[dybeck]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

[dybeck]

I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this:

Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today?

I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

Of course it isn't a bad play. There are just too many scum in this game. Don't be led by them.

There are 4 scum to only 5 town. And it looks like the scum are the most vocal. Obviously we lynch confirmed scum.

[dybeck]

Are people (well... Korlash and shaft.ed) still waiting for responses from me? Can your questions be put, BRIEFLY, in one post? Like... as briefly as you possibly can. I've read too much rubbish in this post already.

[dybeck]

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

10) Why did you claim cop despite me having made it patently clear that lynching Orig was a bad idea? By this, I mean that all you did was needlessly out yourself if you were cop. If you were in real peril of lynch, then fine, but you weren't.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

[dybeck]

I see that shaft.ed already posted his responses to these, but what the heck ...

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

The problems we are having are that (1) only one of the power roles is confirmed in a meaningful way, and (2) the issues with lynching orig seem to stem from the probability that he is the SK. Do you not agree with the assessment that lynching the SK is as bad as lynching a townie at this point? If not, what is your counterargument?

Firstly, as I've stated a lot, I don't believe orig IS a SK. I believe he's mafia. Secondly, if we lynch a townie, we can LOSE tonight, never seeing another day. this is why originality will kill tonight, regardless of what he's told us he'll do. Thirdly, lynching orig will prove my alignment so we won't have to have this conversation tomorrow.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

Not at all. But there are some significant problems with your cop claim, which is what you've been asked to respond to. I did think there was one valid answer you could have given to this question, but you didn't give it. Based on how strongly you hounded my predecessor D1 -- one of the two players you acknowledge to have been hounding all of D1 -- I would definitely have expected you to investigate him over originality.

Maybe I should have. I didn't. Sorry that I don't have an answer for you. I am, however, glad that I found a scum, and glad that I have an opportunity to prove my claim with a correct lynch today.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

No one is asking you why you held off on claiming and sharing your results first thing. Vollkan and shaft.ed are wondering why you didn't start asking pointed questions to originality until after AlyG made his claim. Instead, you spent the first part of the day focused on painting the "shaft.ed as SK" picture.

Ask originality what? He doesn't have any answers for me!

But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

But surely you understand the need to build a case to convince the rest of us? Don't you understand that the timing of your claim -- and now that I've read the morning of D2 in more detail, of your subtle cop-tells -- is suspicious?

If you had posted anything that hinted even in a cryptic, vague manner at a cop role in your posts prior to AlyG's claim, this would be a completely different discussion. Lacking that evidence, I think there is absolutely good reason to doubt your claim.

I did spend half a day trying to build a case against him. I've done the best I can. The fact is that he strangled carrotcake last night, and two UNDISPUTED pro-town power-roles caught him doing it. This must be the first time in history that it's ever taken more of a case than that!

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

That wasn't the question. The question was why you didn't change your vote to him immediately after you claimed.

As a side note, the same question could be asked of AlyG, considering that his Tracker claim in post 401 did not include a vote for orig. But the general scumminess of that claim has already been commented on.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

I thought you'd decided that shaft.ed was OK in a previous post? My perception was that you'd claimed that Orig/Vollkan/Korlash as the most likely mafia candidates. Since when did your opinion of Vollkan change, and why didn't you post it before now?

I'd never ruled Vollkan out as scum, but I never really thought of him as top candidate. When are you talking about?

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If there's anyone "desperately trying to save" originality from a lynch, it's vollkan. Shaft.ed said that you OR originality is the play for today. And the argument that we're kicking around -- and you'll notice, we are NOT all taking this argument for granted; I have been taking plenty of heat for trying to poke at it -- is that lynching the SK has basically the same impact to town as lynching a vanilla townie.

The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

Although I'm not the most qualified person to distinguish which maths are valid and which aren't, it is telling that while shaft.ed and vollkan are looking at scenarios that extend beyond the morning of D3, you are looking at a single WCS that ends as soon as night does. And I buy the premise that if we lynch town today, the SK will probably not make a NK in order to keep his own chances alive.

Why would the SK's chances go up if there was no nightkill? Unless orig is the SK?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Again, do you disagree with the argument that lynching the SK puts the town in the same position as lynching a townie? If so, please explain your thinking in more detail. It isn't obvious to me at all.

Answered this above.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

That is the sorriest excuse for an answer I've ever seen on this site. Cite examples! Explain how their arguments are deceptive! Throw us a bone, any bone! Don't just say "it's obvious, go back and read for yourself." If it was obvious, there would be no need to ask you the question to begin with.

Count the posts. The players I believe to be scum are posting more than anyone else. It's just a fact. Strange that you should have a bigger issue with this answer than any of the others!

I've done my level best to suspend my disbelief, and considered the possibility that you are just being railroaded by scum, but you are absolutely not doing yourself any favors here.

Sorry I'm not the most eloquent poster. Sorry that I don't have any more facts to back up my case. I'm continually being targeted as an easy lynch. But seriously, you all believe I'm scum? And you're willing to lynch me even though you have a golden opportunity to test my alignment? If you leave me alive, and orig is scum, you know I'm telling the truth. If he turns up not scum, you have a guaranteed lynch for tomorrow.

And more than this, you're willing to leave a known killer alive, even though it could lose us the game overnight?

And seriously... if I wasn't the cop, I'd have been counterclaimed LONG before now.

[dybeck]

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is?

[dybeck]

Originality was a REAL vig? Good grief! I'm honestly horrified!

If we'd just stayed in formation, this game would have been in the bag. Oman was pivotal in forming a case against me. Otherwise I'm pretty certain we would have formed a case on someone else.