Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[originality]

If you look at Dybeck's D2 posts, you see a few things that jump out:



* He also has quite a few posts where he describes his origScum conviction as "100% certain." I didn't see any rationale for someone making such statements unless they have received special information.


originality: I have never heard of a miller vig. I would call that situation "wildly unlikely."

shaft.ed: I'm not familiar with the term "AnbodypartoS" ... can you explain it?

More later; must take care of the day job.

a) He's known for saying he is "100% certain" plenty of times, such as shaft.ed at the beginning of the day today as being SK.

b) Actually, I have heard that vigs actually can be millers plenty of times. Can anyone confirm/debunk this? I too have little experience here.

c) I believe he meant a sarcastic variation of "hand of suspicion", "finger of suspicion", etc.

[Gemelli]

Yes, the shaft.ed-SK accusation was weird. Although he backed off on the 100% certain thing (what he actually said was that he'd eat his hat if shaft.ed wasn't the SK) on that point over time. From what I've read today, the only point on which he's maintained the 100% certain angle has been your guilt.

You didn't comment on the breadcrumbing, and the lack thereof on your part. Your argument seems to boil down to "dybeck is scummy, therefore his claim is false and mine is true."

I would also like to hear an answer to shaft.ed's question:

@dybeck, I find your claim to be weak and self serving. Why did you not start out the day against orig and only bring him up when AlyG mentioned his clearly verified investigation results? Seriously, you spent the first RL week of this day without even uttering the word originality. I'd like an explanation of this.

But remember, we have to compare this to originality's posts 344 and 345 at the start of D2, which he used to cast suspicion on AlyG. I know that orig posted a rationale for doing so, but I thought (and still think) it looked fishy. We'll have to hear from dybeck, and each of us will decide whose argument they are more inclined to believe.

[originality]

I've been looking over dybeck's posts, and I must admit that his stubbornness fits with the cop claim. But that doesn't explain why he completely ignored anything to do with me this day until AlyG claimed.

Crap... I really want him not to be the cop, and I'm pretty sure he isn't. But I cant ignore that I might be a miller, or he might be insane.

The more I read, it seems to me he's always been saying "Originality is scum." Period. Him being a cop would explain that blind certainty.

I don't know what to do now. It will look really weird if I say the person who is accusing me as scum looks like a real cop, but that's what it is.



However, what keeps me from believing his claim is: a) I know I'm town, and b) Why he only jumped on me when AlyG started it.

And he only started his "breadcrumbing", if you will, after AlyG's claim. D1 and the beginning of D2(a perfect time to subtly breadcrumb if he had a guilty result) has nada.

[originality]

Also: We all know he didn't think I was scummy at all D1.

Why would he investigate me?

It keeps looking like he only started his "breadcrumb" as a clever way to (falsely)claim cop in the future, after seeing AlyG's claim.

Also, we can't forget that dybeck might just be stubborn like that naturally, and nothing of it was actually breadcrumbing of any sort.

[shaft.ed]

I wouldn't call it breadcrumbing. Breadcrumbing is more of a hidden message in a post that indicates something you haven't stated clearly. Dybeck has been screaming from rooftops that originality needs to die since he's had irrefutable evidence, from other players, that originality killed a vanilla townie. The timing had little to do with when he would have had the information of his proposed night investigation.

And that is an interesting point originality, why would he have investigated someone that during D1 he had no inclination was scum?


On originality's side, I find it difficult to believe he is suggesting a Miller Vig. Oman recently attempted this as SK and was lynched decidedly in a mini. This is pure unadultered silly.

[originality]

Well, I didn't get any miller flavor, I just threw that out there because I don't know whats going on with the cop thing. But I'm more inclined to believe he is just lying.

[Korlash]

First off I forgot to do it this morning,

Unvote:

I am finding it hard to believe his claim, but I am not going to leave my vote on the "cop" without a reason...

I would argue, though, that townies would react with a significant degree of alarm to someone randomly throwing a L-1 vote.
...
Interesting. You figured I would not do something anti-town.

and I (sorta) did. I questioned as to why you did it. not as much alarmed as shocked. I couldn't believe you had suddenly turned stupid on us. Glad to see that's not the case. ^^'

And yes, I did not think you would do something as anti-town as that. You play too damn carefully.

You were happy to keep your vote on him when I did not explain myself, but you say you would not do so if I did explain myself.

The obvious difference is that if I explained myself I would look more serious, however, I don't see why that difference should alter your own actions. There is still as much chance of someone hammering if I am serious as if I am doing it for other reasons.

More importantly, you asked me for my reasons that I felt dybeck was worth a L-1 vote. In other words, at the time you thought my vote was a serious one, which goes entirely against what you are saying now.

I put my vote on him in order to have him clear something up, I didn't want to remove my vote until he cleared that up. So yes I was ok with leaving it on when you put him at L-1, I saw no quick hammer coming and I felt the extra pressure would be beneficial to my cause. Apparently it was too much... >.> <.<

however, if you had made your vote appear to be more then you did, such as had a logical reason, evidence, points, attacks, etc... I would have felt more likely that another player would agree and maybe hammer. Especially if they didn't know it was at L-1 (i have seen that happen before... First hand...) So by making your vote appear to be no more then a random pressure thing I felt no danger on Dybeck.

And thus I asked you for reasons, if you had some then it changed that in my mind. and depending on what reasons you had it may have altered my thoughts.

Oh for sure, a hammerer would be obv scum. I don't see why this is relevant here though. You are talking about things happening quickly and ignoring a more prolonged hammer.

I was not ignoring the more prolonged hammer, that was exactly why I left my vote on him. It would do no harm, and still get my question answered... (WHICH STILL ISN'T! AHHHHHHH!!!!!!)

I have to say I'm very surprised that you seem so certain that Orig is a vig. You're assumption is quite obvious throughout this post.
I also have a problem with the "listen to you." This may be nit-picky, but in this back and forth you make it seem as though vollkan is somehow single-handedly controlling orig's NK actions. In fact, prior vollkan was lobbying the hardest to maintain orig's possibility of NK'ing. I don't want to speak for the town, but it's quite obvious we have all chosen to prevent an extra NK tonight.

I meant "you" as a more general term in that quote. So i could seem to be talking first person to each reader. It was like saying "When you climb mountains, you have to wear shoes." The "you" is not a specific person.

Also, if it is still unclear, I have joined you all in the "Against a NK" thing. So, I will not be lobbying for the Vig to kill anymore.

as for me... I half hoped the claims would counter each other but they don't... Well other then the cop counters vig is all...

We have "vig" killing player X, Tracker saw that. So it could be mafia or vig. Then Cop says he is mafia. So both other claims "kinda" point to mafia/sk. I wouldn't base this on my attack but it would make sense.

And with he possibility of Miller Vig killed we know one of them to be lying... so... *sigh* this means i have to reread...

[shaft.ed]

OK, I've not got the time for an elaborate post now, but as of now I don't believe dybeck's claim. I'd like him to answer the questions listed before acting on my thoughts. I also need to run some numbers on the logic of an actual cop/mafia claiming in such a situation. I'm also a bit surprised as to the instigation of the claim, after the L-1 vote was removed this seems like a low pressure situation.

However, I'm LA over the weekends. I don't think I'll get a chance to contribute anything substantial. I will be extremely mad if I log in to catch up on this game and someone is lynched so please do not kill anyone over the weekend.

[vollkan]

You are being too harsh. He obviously questioned your actions. This to me can be equivilant of AnbodypartoS for certain players.

Okay. That's what I needed to know.

vollkan I also find it odd that as soon as dybeck claims, you seem to have no issue with it, no questions for him and jump straight into SK mathematics.

I did say his claim was "premature and unnecessary". I figured that it explained a lot of dybeck's behaviour today (ie. suspecting those who were against Orig). I know it seems an odd way to go about things, but my first thought was to look at the consequences of things in this new possible scenario.

That's all I have, really. I don't know what else to say. I guess I could be a miller, but I don't know how likely that is in a mini game.

A vig-miller? Now you're just getting desperate...

Okay, some thoughts after reading things:

@dybeck:

I have ideas of the answers to some of these, but I want to ask them nonetheless. So some may seem obvious.
1) Why investigate Orig?
2) Why were you prepared to hammer Oman?
3) Given that our best bet is to lynch a non-Orig mafioso, why did you out yourself?
4) What was with the "shaft.ed is the SK" thing?

Now,

@Orig

: I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

If he is SK (and you are mafia), claiming cop is suicidal for him.

If he is mafia (and you are SK) claiming cop and getting you lynched will put us at 5:3. Then, mafia NK makes it 4:3. So, it is possible dybeck is doing this to put the town in a LYLO situation

Orig, vigmiller is not an option and the fact you would resort to that immediately and that you would say things like:

The more I read, it seems to me he's always been saying "Originality is scum." Period. Him being a cop would explain that blind certainty.

Make it look to me like you are scum, playing the game that all scum play after they get investigated (I've been there, I know)

Orig, I think you are scum now. There is a lot wrong with dybeck, but by and large his behaviour makes sense now. As I have said, I think you are SK based on your behaviour. There remains one option by which you might obtain a slim hope of survival, but for that option to transpire it requires that you truthfully

claim now!

. I am not going to go into specifics yet, but I am being serious.

[Korlash]

Right, I would hate to make you mad

... I was being serious there....
>.>
<.<

Anyways, I mainly want to know the reason he investigated Orig personally. It seems a bit... Coincidental in my opinion.

Also, I am not one to talk about claiming without pressure here, but I think it was an honest mistake about the L-1/claim thing... Although it was a 2 hour difference... He may have just missed the unvote... Eh... I am just not ready to rule anything out.

[originality]

Make it look to me like you are scum, playing the game that all scum play after they get investigated (I've been there, I know)

What is the "townie way to act"? I don't get what you're saying there.



And I'm far from claiming miller, I said "I guess this is a possibility, but probably not." which led me to simply believe dybeck is fake claiming. You guys cant tell me its not something mafia would do, because it is. How are you so certain that dybeck is not lying, vollkan? What if he really did think he was -1 and had nothing to lose by claiming cop? Seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do as mafia.

[vollkan]

What is the "townie way to act"? I don't get what you're saying there.

There is not really a "townie way to act". It's just, what you are saying is what is always said when a scum gets caught with guilty (it's virtually what I said myself in Mini 467). I don't know what a townie would say, so I don't think it is a strong thing, but I just found the similarity with what I said in 467 rather interesting.

I should have worded it more clearly, but I think you see what I meant.

And I'm far from claiming miller, I said "I guess this is a possibility, but probably not." which led me to simply believe dybeck is fake claiming. You guys cant tell me its not something mafia would do, because it is. How are you so certain that dybeck is not lying, vollkan? What if he really did think he was -1 and had nothing to lose by claiming cop? Seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do as mafia.

Show me where I said I was certain dybeck is not lying.

There are other things I want to say, but saying them could have a significant opportunity cost at this point.

For now,
Orig and Dybeck's claims are mutually exclusive, since insanity and vigmiller are both exceedingly unlikely. In other words, one of them is scum.

Tbh, I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat. It just is not sensible scumplay. At most, all dybeck needed to do would be to play normally and get a 4:3:1 mislynch, then NK Orig. At worst, the mafia get a 4:2. The risk assessment just doesn't weigh up.

Dybeck's behaviour is, however, consistent with a SK who knows Orig to be lying mafia and who needs to off the mafia asap. At "L-1", he claims cop to save himself. There are problems with this though, also, but I do not feel it would be the best option to go into them just yet. Suffice to say, this option is more likely, but I still have strong problems with it.

Dybeck as cop makes sense given his behaviour. There are many problems given already, and there is one which is related to the one I mentioned above.

The various likelihoods of Orig being vig vs SK or mafia have been discussed already and there is not much to add.

I really hate having to be so cryptic.

[originality]

Show me where I said I was certain dybeck is not lying.

I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

Ok, maybe not "super certain", but there you go.

I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat.

He could have just argued so much against me, when I was in really tight rope, that it would look weird if he completely withdrew, so he was sort of trapped on his campaign against me. Later when he was at -1 he realized claiming cop was a good way to take a powerrole down with him, so to speak.


And dybeck has quite a bit to explain, such as why he investigated me, why he ignored me until AlyG pointed at me, and why he ardently persued shaft.ed at the beginning of the day while he supposedly had evidence against me.

[Korlash]

There is not really a "townie way to act".

Then... why even bring it up? this seems like more of that "I know exactly how you should be playing and your not doing it right!" crap you seem to enjoy.

I should have worded it more clearly, but I think you see what I meant.

you meant he did something either a town or mafia might have done in the same situation. Good... that helps us out a lot. Thanks for that. Any more useful observations you might want to add here? The sky is blue perhaps. The sun is hot? This is a sentence?

I really hate this point of the game. We argue over and over about who may or may not be telling the truth. Going on and on and on until we hit that deadline. *sighs* I guess it's time for that reread huh... Fine... Page... 2...

I really hate having to be so cryptic.

Well that just makes me want to pass out... I'll be up all night trying to make heads or tails out of that... Lets see... take the first letter of each word... take the next letter in the alphabet... rearrange according to number of letters separating each vowel.... Combine with the third and fourth word in every line... and... you get...

"Cake is yummy!"

hmm... Thats great advice... i think I will have some cake...

seriously I will get back to you after I reread some of Origs/dybecks posts...

[vollkan]

Ok, maybe not "super certain", but there you go.

I said I doubt. That's a balance of probabilities thing. It is not certain at all, and it is wrong of you to call it that.

He could have just argued so much against me, when I was in really tight rope, that it would look weird if he completely withdrew, so he was sort of trapped on his campaign against me. Later when he was at -1 he realized claiming cop was a good way to take a powerrole down with him, so to speak.

This is not true at all. In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case.

And dybeck has quite a bit to explain, such as why he investigated me, why he ignored me until AlyG pointed at me, and why he ardently persued shaft.ed at the beginning of the day while he supposedly had evidence against me.

Yes, these things need to be explored.

Then... why even bring it up? this seems like more of that "I know exactly how you should be playing and your not doing it right!" crap you seem to enjoy.

Not really. In fact, I even said there was no way you should be playing. The similarities interested me as I saw it as possibly illuminating, so I questioned you on it.

I really hate this point of the game. We argue over and over about who may or may not be telling the truth. Going on and on and on until we hit that deadline. *sighs* I guess it's time for that reread huh... Fine... Page... 2...

Yes; why ever would we need to debate who is more likely to be lying? That's just pointless

Well that just makes me want to pass out... I'll be up all night trying to make heads or tails out of that... Lets see... take the first letter of each word... take the next letter in the alphabet... rearrange according to number of letters separating each vowel.... Combine with the third and fourth word in every line... and... you get...

"Cake is yummy!"

hmm... Thats great advice... i think I will have some cake...

It was not supposed to mean anything, so stop trying to be funny about it.

seriously I will get back to you after I reread some of Origs/dybecks posts...

Lovely; I'll make cake.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #32!

dybeck (2) - originality, AlyG
Korlash (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, shaft.ed, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli, vollkan, Korlash

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 8

Elias_the_Thief prodded

[Korlash]

Yes; why ever would we need to debate who is more likely to be lying? That's just pointless

I meant that all of our remaining time will boil down to a he said he said thing about who could "possibly" be lying and thus come deadline it will basically come down to each towny picking a side and crossing their fingers... I guess I did word it pretty vague didn't I... My bad...

Also what is wrong with being funny? Huh does it get you scared? worried i will crack your puzzle? Your crip-ti-quote? Huh? Out with it? It's a word scramble isn't it! I will find and circle all the words in your last post!!!! HA HA! Theres a you... and a funny... and a cake... man I rock at this game! =D

On a serious note... Shouldn't Dybeck I don't know... Vote Orig? Am I just seeing this wrong because his vote is on me, or does it seem weird to you guys too?

[Lucienne]

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

[vollkan]

shaft.ed, I would appreciate if you did not comment on what Lucienne just said at this point right now, until my questions below are answered. This is related to my cryptic little thing, but I promise all shall be explained soon.

My below question is directed to Korlash and Elias:
Based on Orig's behaviour it seems most likely he is the SK, however there is still room to doubt dybeck's investigation. We know one of them is lying. Who do you want to lynch at this point?

[dybeck]

We got next to no information from yesterday. A lot of people thought they were on to a lot of things that I just flatly disagreed with, and a lot of things that I just didn't think we had any information to prove. It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus. I carried on applying pressure in other directions early this day because there was nothing to be gained by another short day. In hindsight, I'm really happy that I played it exactly this way, since I'm of the opinion that I've pretty much got everybody nailed with alignments today. If we fail to win this, I'll be amazed.

I'm still happy that Oman/Korlash is probably scum. I'm pretty confident that it would still be a scum lynch, and if I hadn't come out, I'd have still thought it was a successful day, because I think we'd have nailed a scum, and I'd be certain of another investigation.

However, a Korlash lynch was looking decreasingly likely, and a Dybeck lynch looked like the way this day was going, and when it became OK to put me at lynch -1, something needed to be done.

And obviously

unvote, vote: originality

[originality]

I'm curious as to what dybeck's excuse will be tomorrow if you guys do end up lynching me. In any form, I'd like to tell everyone the people I think I have pinpointed, just in case I don't see the light of day tomorrow:

Lucienne with dybeck.

Not completely sure who the third is yet, I have my ideas, but these two I am too sure of.


And if I can't convince everyone with my word only, please look at those numbers you have been throwing around for a while now, that say that whatever my allegiance might be, its best not to lynch me.

[Korlash]

Based on Orig's behaviour it seems most likely he is the SK, however there is still room to doubt dybeck's investigation. We know one of them is lying. Who do you want to lynch at this point?

when I first read that my answer was Dybeck because he had not explained his things/ voted for Orig. Now that he has I find my most likely lynch to be Lucienne. I mean all she has done for the past... i don't know how long is come in with a two-three sentence something and not give us anything to go on. I think Elias is second in that regards.

As you and Orig (just recently) pointed out, you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad. So I am basing a lot of my thinking on that. Although I am not sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything.

So thats my take... Have I failed yet another one of your traps? Do I really care? Does anyone know all the answers?

[shaft.ed]

OK I really really want to post more but not having the time.

I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

I've got to very strongly disagree with this sentiment. In fact a cop claim works out exceedingly well no matter the alignment of dybeck.

dybeck the SK

: He know's for a fact that originality is mafia because he made the other kill. Thus he is 100% certain that his "investigation" result will turn up scum. He also knows that the town already has a tracker so there is a decent probability no cop exists. As for the mafia killing him in the night, can you say doc protection for a proven guilty "investigation." Makes 2 assumptions, but beats the hell out of being lynched.

dybeck the mafioso

: He know's there's a decent chance orig is coming up SK, and given his opinion of Carrotcake, I'd say he'd bet on SK over vig. Thus there is a good chance that he gets a guilty on a SK. WCS in this situation is that he has successfully taken out the town vig, and after his lynch tommorow the town is in a 3:2 LYLO. Best case scenario he has killed off the SK, survived and has the town thinking he's the cop, can you say mafia win? As above if there is a tracker, cop probabilities go down. And again beats the hell out of getting lynched and having nothing to show for it.

On a serious note... Shouldn't Dybeck I don't know... Vote Orig?

This one stuck out like a sore thumb to me as well. I was hoping noone would mention it so we could see how long it would take dybeck to ever move his vote over to the confirmed killing role that he had a guilty night "investigation" on.

It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

Please demonstrate this "concensus."

[Korlash]

Sorry... >< I wasn't even thinking...

[shaft.ed]

Sorry... >< I wasn't even thinking...

Don't worry about it, the point is clear enough. He didn't even switch his vote until after you pointed it out. The fact that someone would post a guilty investigation and not vote that person speaks volumes.