Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 3 - Game Over - Is this what happened?

[DragonsofSummer]

I'm not so much questioning it as agreeing with ecto that HC is the better play today. I think that he is right in that since he is not mafia, and I agree with you that a jester would be preposterous, he isn't the play today. I mean think about it... unless he is lying and he is mafia, letting him live today is potentially beneficial to the town. Whereas with HC we do not know his alignment except that I got a guilty investigation on him. And with a third claim of SK I feel that there is a good chance to hit mafia if we kill him.

Also we know there is at least one roleblocker in the game, if not two depending on whether you and I were roleblocked by the same person. So if there is a pro-town roleblocker out there it would be in their benefit, as much as everyone elses to block ecto tonight. Given that I believe HC to be mafia, and we have no way of knowing if he is the last mafia in the game blocking him wouldn't be nearly as effective if he has associates left.

[al_kohaulec]

Hmm... I must've overlooked your guilty result or something

Unvote

[dahen]

This has been a very interesting discussion.
HC: If you want my vote taken off you, I'd like you to get us the information from the Mod of who CES targetted.

We have had a godfather and lots of SK:s.
If all the SK:s can kill every night, then we need lots of multitargets or docs/blockers.
We had two deaths N1, but we also know (from the deaths) that Jack was a vig. We have no evidence that SKs can kill at all in this game.

[Battle Mage]

lol i see what you are saying DoS. Notice, i haven't actually said that i believe HC. Personally, i'm still very suspicious of him. But, you cannot deny that, with 3 claimed investigative roles, if we do have a role that could protect us at night, it would be incredibly valuable.
The way i see it, HC has a chance to confirm himself tonight. If he fails, it is easy enough to lynch him tomorrow. On the other hand, if we lynch HC today, i have a bad feeling that Ecto will cruise his way out of being lynched, and i probably won't be here to prevent this.
Remember, Ecto has CLAIMED SCUM. I don't for one second believe that he is an SK, but then, if the worst comes to the worst, and he is, we can be pretty sure that at most, we have 1 mafia member left (probably an RB). At best of course, we kill the Mafia RB, and possibly win the game today.

Confirm Vote: Ectomancer

I mean, its not difficult to work out. We have, at most, 2 scum left. Killing Ecto today is simply the logical option.

BM

BM you act as if you believe HC is claiming his actual role... Let me ask you... In your opinion, with a game this full of power roles so far... why the hell would there be a Jack of all Trades? It doesn't really make that much sense to me. Plus it feels like a claim that definite scum would make to just try to blend in a little bit. Plus if you notice he was perfectly happy to melt into the background and let you push ecto, and as he says with vig... wouldn't Jack of all Trades be easy to say as scum. You can basically claim anything you want with who you targeted, and your buddies won't out you on an investigation, no one will ever know if you protected or not, and for the rb its the same story as the investigation. Not to mention the fact that him knowing who was targeted with the investigation, but not the roleblock, and not knowing which was used on which night is rather peculiar in my opinion... Every game I've ever replaced into the mod has given me every piece of information that they have... night choices for each night, and their targets and results... His claim is extremely fishy in my opinion... even worse than ecto's claim, and what really strikes me is no one is even questioning anything about him except me.

I do realize Ecto has changed his claim, but since we cannot be certain he is lying even now, and I know that HC is scum (even if he is telling the truth about his claim which I doubt) I am still more comfortable killing him today.

[Ectomancer]

You are advocating a losing strategy for town BM. NOW people, go back and look at what I said about him. I may be an SK, but Im not mafia, and what I said about BM's moves are factual and can be read for yourself. Look at the timeline.

[Battle Mage]

You are advocating a losing strategy for town BM. NOW people, go back and look at what I said about him. I may be an SK, but Im not mafia, and what I said about BM's moves are factual and can be read for yourself. Look at the timeline.

Dude, you have claimed SK with a kill. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that sounds? and you are lecturing me about looking scummy?
rofl.

[Ectomancer]

I was up front about my own suspicions concerning my role because of a lack of a kill. The rest of the claims and targets would help to confirm or refute my claim. I've asked for it, but you insist on shutting down doing what would actually shed some light to the situation. I said before that scum didn't need more time to figure out a safe claim. I still insist on that notion. I'm still trying to either win, or at least bring this game to a tie somehow. You can label me whatever you wish, but an enemy of my enemy can be my ally at times. If you were town, you would be helping me to make sure that the scum group doesn't get to an equal number as the sum of town and me.
I'm not insisting that we lynch BM instead of me, but if he is town, he needs to back off. If he is scum, then I could understand why he would persist in lynching me today. I'm one less player in opposition to them.

[Battle Mage]

so much BS... lol
1. If i was scum, i would want to keep you alive, because with so many power roles left, the extra enemy to the town could prove useful.
2. Any townie in their right mind kills an enemy to the town. You are making out like we are in LyLo, but we arent even close. At most, i reckon we have 2 enemies to the town left, of which you are 1.
3. Assuming that you might possibly have 1 more buddy alive, its not wise to reveal too many more roles.
4. If you were town, you wouldn't vote for me, because you know i am town. If you were going to help us get a decent lynch today, you wouldnt have voted for me in the first place.
5. I don't give a toss whether you vote for me or not anymore. The fact is, you can continue sucking up to me all you want, but you are scum, and you are not going to persuade me to let you live.

BM

I was up front about my own suspicions concerning my role because of a lack of a kill. The rest of the claims and targets would help to confirm or refute my claim. I've asked for it, but you insist on shutting down doing what would actually shed some light to the situation. I said before that scum didn't need more time to figure out a safe claim. I still insist on that notion. I'm still trying to either win, or at least bring this game to a tie somehow. You can label me whatever you wish, but an enemy of my enemy can be my ally at times. If you were town, you would be helping me to make sure that the scum group doesn't get to an equal number as the sum of town and me.
I'm not insisting that we lynch BM instead of me, but if he is town, he needs to back off. If he is scum, then I could understand why he would persist in lynching me today. I'm one less player in opposition to them.

[Ectomancer]

You are making out like we are in LyLo, but we arent even close. At most, i reckon we have 2 enemies to the town left, of which you are 1.

BM

MOS sent you the game setup?

[Haschel Cedricson]

MOS sent you the game setup?

We already had two SKs and a Godfather show up dead. If you are indeed another SK, then that would require another person to be a Mafia goon. That's 5 players out of a 12-player mini. If there were MORE people who were scum, then we no longer have a town majority, which is contrary to the spirit of Mafia.

Two scum left is possible, but three scum is just not feasible at all.

[Battle Mage]

MOS sent you the game setup?

We already had two SKs and a Godfather show up dead. If you are indeed another SK, then that would require another person to be a Mafia goon. That's 5 players out of a 12-player mini. If there were MORE people who were scum, then we no longer have a town majority, which is contrary to the spirit of Mafia.

Two scum left is possible, but three scum is just not feasible at all.

this is correct. PLUS, we have some assurity that we are dealing with a Mafia RB here, and tbh, 4NK's and 2 extra powers amongst the scum is totally ridiculous imo. So, i'm hoping that we might be down to 1 scumbag, rather than 2.

BM

[Ectomancer]

Good luck with that.

[al_kohaulec]

Honestly, the possibility of 6+ scum total is possible. I've played a game with 9/16 players being scum. It wasn't balanced, but it happened, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.

However, with so many kill roles, I don't think roleblockers and doctors alone would be enough to prevent all the killing (and cross kills too). Ecto probably is telling the truth of his inability to successfully kill, but there's no knowing how soon his kill will be successful if this is the case.

I think Ecto's the obvious play today, he's claimed scum, and tomorrow we can look at HC and other possibilities as well.

Vote: Ecto

[dahen]

I have some requests:

BM

: Calm down! You add nothing new. We are aware that Ecto has claimed SK.

HC

: Answer my question. I want to know who CES targetted tonight. There is no point in saving that information for tomorrow.

Alko

: Please unvote again until we are finished here. You are obviously doubting the danger of Ecto but still thinks he is the play and says HC is the play for tomorrow.

The rest of you

: Don't claim! But post! What is your view on this game with no townie roles but lots of SK roles of which one claims and says he doesn't think he can kill?

HC is investigated as scum. He has NOT claimed SK. I think he is mafia.
At this point I don't care about Ecto, since this game has had:
* two dead SK's (TCS, BT)
* one living claimed SK (Ecto)
* a mafia band (or at least the god father MBL)
* a vig (Jack)
* a living claimed one-shot vig (HC [in addition to his investigation and RB])

This could in theory have meant 6 kills N1. Do you think our mod would make that possible? Clearly there is something funny going on here.

DOS is the only claimed cop in this setup so far. He could of course be insane or paranoid, but I think it's wiser to follow his choice anyway.

[Battle Mage]

hello? you've just pointed out the reason we shouldnt kill HC today-we do not know TCS's sanity for sure. If he is wrong about HC, then not only do we lose a very powerful protown power role, but also it may end up in TCS getting lynched next, which could also be wrong. Imo, we'd have to be stupid not to take the safe option and kill Ecto-scum.

BM

I have some requests:

BM

: Calm down! You add nothing new. We are aware that Ecto has claimed SK.

HC

: Answer my question. I want to know who CES targetted tonight. There is no point in saving that information for tomorrow.

Alko

: Please unvote again until we are finished here. You are obviously doubting the danger of Ecto but still thinks he is the play and says HC is the play for tomorrow.

The rest of you

: Don't claim! But post! What is your view on this game with no townie roles but lots of SK roles of which one claims and says he doesn't think he can kill?

HC is investigated as scum. He has NOT claimed SK. I think he is mafia.
At this point I don't care about Ecto, since this game has had:
* two dead SK's (TCS, BT)
* one living claimed SK (Ecto)
* a mafia band (or at least the god father MBL)
* a vig (Jack)
* a living claimed one-shot vig (HC [in addition to his investigation and RB])

This could in theory have meant 6 kills N1. Do you think our mod would make that possible? Clearly there is something funny going on here.

DOS is the only claimed cop in this setup so far. He could of course be insane or paranoid, but I think it's wiser to follow his choice anyway.

[Haschel Cedricson]

HC

: Answer my question. I want to know who CES targetted tonight. There is no point in saving that information for tomorrow.

I've PMed MoS, so hopefully I can answer this by this evening. I'll be on the road for most of the day, so don't expect me on until evening Pacific Time.

[al_kohaulec]

I'll

Unvote

just to make sure we get more discussion in, but I don't necessarily see why we shouldn't lynch ecto first. Worst case scenario is all scum get to kill, in which case killing an SK gives us one less killing group. Haschel also isn't as guaranteed as Ecto to be scum.

[DragonsofSummer]

hello? you've just pointed out the reason we shouldnt kill HC today-we do not know TCS's sanity for sure. If he is wrong about HC, then not only do we lose a very powerful protown power role, but also it may end up in TCS getting lynched next, which could also be wrong. Imo, we'd have to be stupid not to take the safe option and kill Ecto-scum.

BM

I have some requests:

BM

: Calm down! You add nothing new. We are aware that Ecto has claimed SK.

HC

: Answer my question. I want to know who CES targetted tonight. There is no point in saving that information for tomorrow.

Alko

: Please unvote again until we are finished here. You are obviously doubting the danger of Ecto but still thinks he is the play and says HC is the play for tomorrow.

The rest of you

: Don't claim! But post! What is your view on this game with no townie roles but lots of SK roles of which one claims and says he doesn't think he can kill?

HC is investigated as scum. He has NOT claimed SK. I think he is mafia.
At this point I don't care about Ecto, since this game has had:
* two dead SK's (TCS, BT)
* one living claimed SK (Ecto)
* a mafia band (or at least the god father MBL)
* a vig (Jack)
* a living claimed one-shot vig (HC [in addition to his investigation and RB])

This could in theory have meant 6 kills N1. Do you think our mod would make that possible? Clearly there is something funny going on here.

DOS is the only claimed cop in this setup so far. He could of course be insane or paranoid, but I think it's wiser to follow his choice anyway.

I'm DOS... not TCS btw... but BM I understand your concern with my sanity, and knew it had to come up at some point... so here is what I propose, for tonight everyone tell me who they want me to investigate... preferably someone thought to be solidly in the pro-town category, and if I get a guilty verdict then we can really discuss whether or not I am sane...

Wait edit in same post... since we think there is still a mafia RB this probably won't work anyway. But without something like that I don't know how we test my sanity without actually lynching HC.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Right. I'm back. Apparently CES roleblocked BillyTwilight night 1 and investigated BM night two. I have no idea why he chose to roleblock before investigating, but I suppose this explains why there was no extra kill that night.

Obviously I think Ecto is the best lynch for today, and I'm not sure how we test DoS's sanity without killing me, so hopefully killing Ecto wins the game for us.

[dahen]

I have no idea why he chose to roleblock before investigating, but I suppose this explains why there was no extra kill that night.

Well, I can see reasons for that order of choosing, but I don't think that SKs can kill in this game and I think that mafia would very much like town to go after SKs instead of mafia. I don't believe your theory that the role block explains why we had only two kills that night. I believe you are saying just that to make us believe that SKs are dangerous while they in fact are not.

I would still very much like the other players' views on the entire situation before going to night.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I believe you are saying just that to make us believe that SKs are dangerous while they in fact are not.

I'm just trying to understand the actions of a player who made the decisions that I will take the responsibility for. There's no ulterior motive here, although you're free to keep searching for one.

On a side note, I've never played in a game where the Serial Killer could not kill. If there was a non-killing self-aligned role, I can't imagine the moderator would call it a "Serial Killer", because that would fall under bastard moddery.

[al_kohaulec]

I have no idea why he chose to roleblock before investigating, but I suppose this explains why there was no extra kill that night.

Well, I can see reasons for that order of choosing, but

I don't think that SKs can kill in this game

and I think that mafia would very much like town to go after SKs instead of mafia. I don't believe your theory that the role block explains why we had only two kills that night. I believe you are saying just that to make us believe that SKs are dangerous while they in fact are not.

I would still very much like the other players' views on the entire situation before going to night.

That is possible, but then I have to ask you, what's the balancing factor?

In a regular game, an SK is essentially a mafia that's already down to one member, or in other words a very weak mafia. If the SKs can't kill, but the mafia can, then the mafia's advantage over SKs grows dramatically (note: I'm not taking into account the town's advantage at all here, only the SK vs. the mafia). It stands to reason that there must be some special ability of the SKs if they can't kill, and even then they still seem weak.

Whether the SKs can kill or not, it's possible and likely that they have some additional ability to make up for their weakness, but from the deaths of the previous SKs, it's apparent that we aren't told what they are if they even have any. I do believe that the SKs can kill though, but to prevent half the town from dying at night, it's probably related to a percent chance of being successful or being dependent on which night they kill on.

[chaotic_diablo]

I'll go next. I have several one-shot abilities: RB, investigator, doc, and vig. I only have one of these left.

So Night one was a roleblock for Billy. Night two was to investigate BM. That still leaves the doc and vig abilities. Your math is horrible. You should still have the protection and your killing abilities left. You are definitely scum since your claim is made-up. DOS is sane cop. End of story. Lynch this scum.

vote HC

[Haschel Cedricson]

So Night one was a roleblock for Billy. Night two was to investigate BM. That still leaves the doc and vig abilities. Your math is horrible. You should still have the protection and your killing abilities left. You are definitely scum since your claim is made-up. DOS is sane cop. End of story. Lynch this scum.

vote HC

Damn, I was hoping nobody would catch that. I forgot this game had a day start. I've been trying to think of how to lie my way out of that ever since I realized my mistake, and I've come up with nothing. However, if I can't win, I'm going to at least try to make sure that the town loses.

Right, I am also a Serial Killer, and I have my own theory about the set-up. I think that in addition to Ecto and, there is one more SK out there. Furthermore, I believe that if two SKs target the same person, then neither person kills, as I targeted BM last night.

Either Ecto or I will get lynched today. Whichever one of us lives should target DoS. The other SK should target anybody else. That gets rid of two townies. Then the remaining SK will be able to kill every night.

What do you think, Ecto?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Oh,

Unvote Ectomancer.