Newbie 428: Eat My Shorts! Game Over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

SilverPhoenix: 2 (Oman, Caliban )
Sir Tornado: 2 (New Coldness, JDodge)
Arvetis: 1 (Sir Tornado)
JDodge: 1 (Arvetis)

Not voting: SilverPhoenix

With 7 alive it will take

4

votes to lynch!

Deadline: Thursday 30th August 9am BST

[Oman]

Oman, you do realize that if SP gets lynched and turns out to be town, the focus of suspicion is going to be on you, right? I don't mean that threateningly, I just think it's true and I'm pointing it out.

As I'm sure you can tell from my response, I don't agree that SP is 100% scummy. Do you have any responses to the things I said?

I'll reply to your other stuff later, but yes I do realise this.

The thing is, my win condition is not "to stay alive and avoid suspicion" it is "to have ONLY town remaining" (paraphrased to get around the rule of quoting PMs).

Of course, if he is lynched (and at this point in time I will be on that wagon) and he comes up town I'd be looking long andhard before anyone threw a vote on me as we'd be in LyLo.

The point I'm trying to make is that I think SP is scummy, and if he's town, I'm happy to have some people look at me. Its not in the towns best interest to not lynch someone because they don't look 100% scum.

On that point, you will never, never ever know as a townie that someone else is 100% scum on D1. The only people who know 100% in a C9 is A) Cop with guilty and B) other mafia.

To get around your 100% term: Do you think SP is scummy? If you want to use a % thats fine with me.

[Mr Stoofer]

The thing is, my win condition is not "to stay alive and avoid suspicion" it is "to have ONLY town remaining" (paraphrased to get around the rule of quoting PMs).

All role PMs in this game are open - they are in the Post 1. So I have no objection to any of you reproducing any of them in your posts.

[Oman]

I'm not sure we need to get into the statistical minutia of it. The statement, "two lurkers prolly at least one scum", is kinda dodgy, it smells a lot like some knows who the scum is and is trying to deflect attention.

Actually, doing the math, I think it comes out to being slightly more likely that one of any two given players are scum than that neither are scum.... go figure

Sorry to nitpick but that is wrong.
Chance that any one person (A) is scum = 2/7
If Person A is scum than:
Chance that any second person (B) is scum = 1/6

Chance that persons A + B are scum together= chance(A)*chance(B) = 1/21 (I believe thats correct)

Chance that any one person (A) is town = 5/7
If Person A is town than:
Chance that any second person (B) is town = 4/6

Chance that persons A + B are town together = chance(A)*chance(B) = 20/21 (I believe thats correct)

So as you can see its a dramatically higher chance. The one thing to remember is that this game is not played on numbers, if someone is constantly defending despite all evidence we can safely assume there may be a connection of some sort (there might not be, but its a good assumption).

Don't worry, I'm not saying you're scummy, you're just wrong.

[Caliban]

Jeebus! Enough with the maths!

Oman

The thing is, my win condition is not "to stay alive and avoid suspicion" it is "to have ONLY town remaining" (paraphrased to get around the rule of quoting PMs).

Mr Stoofer

All role PMs in this game are open - they are in the Post 1. So I have no objection to any of you reproducing any of them in your posts.

If you bothered to check the win condition to make sure you weren't quoting PMs, then surely you would have caught that the roles are in post 1?

Perhaps this is because your role PM was "You win when the town are all eliminated",

The

lady

Middle Eastern Monarchy doth protest too much, methinks.

Just feel that you're just a little too forceful in your attempts to convince people you're town.

Given that I still feel that SP has been the most suspicious so far.

I wouldn't rule out a sacrificial lamb either, if it turns out that all Oman's hard work had caught a mafia goon it would take a monumental shift to then lynch him.

[Arvetis]

Chance that persons A + B are town together = chance(A)*chance(B) = 20/21 (I believe thats correct).

Sorry to drag out the math thing, but you need to work on your fraction multiplications. 5/7 * 4/6 does not equal 20/21. It's 10/21. Perhaps it would be easier if you converted it to fractions. 5/7 is about 0.71. 4/6 is 0.6 repeating. Those two multiplied together (and therefore the chance that both lurkers are town) is about .47. It's therefore slightly more likely that one of them is scum than that they are both town, which means, based on the numbers alone, his statement was reasonable, and not "based on lies."

Of course, you're right that the game isn't just numbers, but I'm pretty sure that's how he meant the statement to be taken - we have two random players who weren't posting, and the chances were decent that one of them, at least, is scum. Your assertion that this argument is incredibly scummy doesn't hold up at all.

[Oman]

Arvetis wins. Its true I can't multiply fractions well (lucky I don't do any maths here).

Caliban, you've come to a strange conclusion there. The point of what I was trying to say was not "I'm town! I'm town!" but "it doesn't matter if you die, as long as you find the scum".

I do apreciate the roles are on the first page, but rules be rules.

[Arvetis]

Oman - I think he's saying that you don't need to paraphrase, since we're allowed to quote role PMs, but perhaps you paraphrased because your didn't actually have a town PM, but a scum PM, and didn't realize you could quote the town PM from the original post. It's a bit of a stretch, I think.

[Caliban]

I'll admit it is a bit far fetched, but not fanciful, if an idea comes into my head I'm gonna post it up here, it can really do no harm to share my musings.

I would like to see SP make a vote, he's in an unenviable position though, but he can send two players to lynch -1 which would certainly cause discussion, alternatively he could send another 2 players to -2 greatly increasing suspicion there, or he can throw another name into the hat completely.

Time to put your balls where my mouth is, SP!

[Arvetis]

I'll admit it is a bit far fetched, but not fanciful, if an idea comes into my head I'm gonna post it up here, it can really do no harm to share my musings.

No, I'm not saying you shouldn't have said it. But it can't do harm for me to say I think it's unlikely, either.

Time to put your balls where my mouth is, SP!

Cue dim lights and bad 70s music!

[Oman]

Oman - I think he's saying that you don't need to paraphrase, since we're allowed to quote role PMs, but perhaps you paraphrased because your didn't actually have a town PM, but a scum PM, and didn't realize you could quote the town PM from the original post. It's a bit of a stretch, I think.

I know the PMs are on that first page, but the rules still say not to quote. Its something I've picked up from mini normals and themes too. Just a habit.

I would like to see SP make a vote, he's in an unenviable position though, but he can send two players to lynch -1 which would certainly cause discussion, alternatively he could send another 2 players to -2 greatly increasing suspicion there, or he can throw another name into the hat completely.

SP is really in a lose-lose at the moment. Rather than forcing him to vote, I'm going to request

SP

: a list of the top three or four most scummy people and why.

Why did I ask for three or four, newbies probably are asking, when there are only two scum? Well if he only gives us two, and his first is lynched, and then he is NKed we have very little to go on (we could WIFOM the night away saying that he was killed because of the second name). The other option is that he is scum, and by asking for only two, he can refrain from naming a partner if there are two others he could slide by. If his partner is slipping up, like most scum often do, then he is forced to name them somewhere in there or get even more suspicion cast upon him/them. The bigger the list the better, without actually having to name everyone.

[Oman]

*YAWN*

You know we're deadlined right?

[Caliban]

I'm painfully aware of the deadline,

what's the worst case scenario of a no-lynch?

I can't really see pushing through a lynch by thursday without dratic new evidence,

so should we accept a no-lynch or just hang someone even if the evidence is still a bit flimsy?

[Oman]

Worst case scenario: Mafia NKs tonight. we're at 4 townies, 2 scum meaning we can A) no-lynch again and be at lylo day 3 or B) lynch day 2 and be at lylo then.

Caliban, its always painful to say this but... lynching D1 on flimsy evidence is better then no lynching. This doesn't mean randomly vote and hope, it means find the best choice. Then you use the lynch and the NK as evidence for your A) lylo D2 if you lynch town or B) your search for remaining scum D2 if you hit scum.

Basically, in a game where you can't guarentee a doc protect, its better to lynch.

[JDodge]

I'd prefer a Sir T lynch myself.

[Caliban]

Any particular reason?

[JDodge]

Worst case scenario: Mafia NKs tonight. we're at 4 townies, 2 scum meaning we can A) no-lynch again and be at lylo day 3 or B) lynch day 2 and be at lylo then.

Caliban, its always painful to say this but... lynching D1 on flimsy evidence is better then no lynching. This doesn't mean randomly vote and hope, it means find the best choice. Then you use the lynch and the NK as evidence for your A) lylo D2 if you lynch town or B) your search for remaining scum D2 if you hit scum.

Basically, in a game where you can't guarentee a doc protect, its better to lynch.

That's wrong. We're at lylo tomorrow either way.

Caliban, Sir T has been active elsewhere yet hasn't said a word here.

[JDodge]

EBWOP: We can still no-lynch tomorrow if we don't get a lynch today. We could also still theoretically make it to day 3 if we mislynch tomorrow in that scenario, but it's a bit of a crapshoot.

[Oman]

JD, we can be at day 3 without a doc protect if we no-lynch both days...I wouldn't though as it gambles on a cop and the right investigations.

I suggest we lynch today, and my finger is still pointed at SP.

[Caliban]

We're gonna need to see some vote movement to get anything done,

I'm loathe to grandstand a lynch based on the flimsy evidence we have but it seems better to lynch someone sooner rather later,

we

might

lynch town with a poor hunch, but we

will

lose a townie on the night kill.

I'm not convinced we have definitive heat on anyone yet, as above i'm not keen on a lot of SP's logic in posting, Sir Tornado has also been less than prolific since jumping in, I'm less suspicious of JDodge now he's 'back'.

[Sir Tornado]

I think Arvetis is town. I particularly like his earlier posts. I do not like New Coldness's accusation that SV was trying to bandwagon Arvetis.

[Oman]

I think JDodge is pretty clean on his own, but his ties to SP are too much to ignore. Though its all on SP, so if he is lynched and comes up town Jdodge would be all but confirmed for me.

Jdodge: can you answer 165 please?

I too think Sir T is scummy, but Jdodge and SP are my current scumpair.

Sir T, can we get your thoughts on the game please? This might change things.

[Oman]

EBWOP: Simulpost there (yes it took me 3 minutes to write that)

Sir T doesn't seem to be activly scumhunting, only stating townies, which any scum can do.

Please Sir T: Scumlist?

[Sir Tornado]

About Caliban... well, I like his posts early on. He seems to be fairly consistent with his stance (lurking is bad, a talking scum can say something suspicious, but a silent scum will never do so). He feels town to me too...

What concerns me is that I expected a player with his stance to go more heavily after lurkers... don't know why he isn't voting me atm tbh. I would have expected him to do so.

I think he is town too.

[Oman]

I'd put down his unagressivness v. lurkers to being a newbie. He's been pretty docile vote-wise most of the game.