SilverPhoenix: 2 (Oman, Caliban )
Sir Tornado: 2 (New Coldness, JDodge)
Arvetis: 1 (Sir Tornado)
JDodge: 1 (Arvetis)
Not voting: SilverPhoenix
I'll reply to your other stuff later, but yes I do realise this.Arvetis wrote:Oman, you do realize that if SP gets lynched and turns out to be town, the focus of suspicion is going to be on you, right? I don't mean that threateningly, I just think it's true and I'm pointing it out.
As I'm sure you can tell from my response, I don't agree that SP is 100% scummy. Do you have any responses to the things I said?
Oman wrote:The thing is, my win condition is not "to stay alive and avoid suspicion" it is "to have ONLY town remaining" (paraphrased to get around the rule of quoting PMs).
Sorry to nitpick but that is wrong.Arvetis wrote:Actually, doing the math, I think it comes out to being slightly more likely that one of any two given players are scum than that neither are scum.... go figureCaliban wrote:I'm not sure we need to get into the statistical minutia of it. The statement, "two lurkers prolly at least one scum", is kinda dodgy, it smells a lot like some knows who the scum is and is trying to deflect attention.
Oman
The thing is, my win condition is not "to stay alive and avoid suspicion" it is "to have ONLY town remaining" (paraphrased to get around the rule of quoting PMs).
If you bothered to check the win condition to make sure you weren't quoting PMs, then surely you would have caught that the roles are in post 1?Mr Stoofer
All role PMs in this game are open - they are in the Post 1. So I have no objection to any of you reproducing any of them in your posts.
Sorry to drag out the math thing, but you need to work on your fraction multiplications. 5/7 * 4/6 does not equal 20/21. It's 10/21. Perhaps it would be easier if you converted it to fractions. 5/7 is about 0.71. 4/6 is 0.6 repeating. Those two multiplied together (and therefore the chance that both lurkers are town) is about .47. It's therefore slightly more likely that one of them is scum than that they are both town, which means, based on the numbers alone, his statement was reasonable, and not "based on lies."Oman wrote:Arvetis wrote:Caliban wrote:Chance that persons A + B are town together = chance(A)*chance(B) = 20/21 (I believe thats correct).
No, I'm not saying you shouldn't have said it. But it can't do harm for me to say I think it's unlikely, either.I'll admit it is a bit far fetched, but not fanciful, if an idea comes into my head I'm gonna post it up here, it can really do no harm to share my musings.
Cue dim lights and bad 70s music!Time to put your balls where my mouth is, SP!
I know the PMs are on that first page, but the rules still say not to quote. Its something I've picked up from mini normals and themes too. Just a habit.Arvetis wrote:Oman - I think he's saying that you don't need to paraphrase, since we're allowed to quote role PMs, but perhaps you paraphrased because your didn't actually have a town PM, but a scum PM, and didn't realize you could quote the town PM from the original post. It's a bit of a stretch, I think.
I would like to see SP make a vote, he's in an unenviable position though, but he can send two players to lynch -1 which would certainly cause discussion, alternatively he could send another 2 players to -2 greatly increasing suspicion there, or he can throw another name into the hat completely.
That's wrong. We're at lylo tomorrow either way.Oman wrote:Worst case scenario: Mafia NKs tonight. we're at 4 townies, 2 scum meaning we can A) no-lynch again and be at lylo day 3 or B) lynch day 2 and be at lylo then.
Caliban, its always painful to say this but... lynching D1 on flimsy evidence is better then no lynching. This doesn't mean randomly vote and hope, it means find the best choice. Then you use the lynch and the NK as evidence for your A) lylo D2 if you lynch town or B) your search for remaining scum D2 if you hit scum.
Basically, in a game where you can't guarentee a doc protect, its better to lynch.