Jack of All Trades Mafia -- OVER!
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Yaw Yawesome
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Coron Shameless Plug
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
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- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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- Location: The Hills
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Coron Shameless Plug
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Coron Shameless Plug
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Yaw Yawesome
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My plane is now officially booked, for Friday August 17 in the evening. That means that this game has to be finished by then.
It would be preferable if it were finished a couple days before so I could contribute to some post-game discussion.
In other words, get off your asses.Success breeds suspicion-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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This is a point in favor of ThAdmiral being town.mystery meat of doom wrote:I totally missed my tuesday deadline by 45 minutes, but let's just ignore that shall we.
About Ibby and MBL: I'm taking the side of Ibby. 'Nuf said.
I had an early suspicion of Yos in day 1, where it seemed like he was trying to derail viper wagon for mlaker. I also liked someone else's argument about when Yos voiced his question about items. Some said it was weak, but I find that a very interesting fact that works against him, since he claimed 'nilla town.
I really don't see why people aren't running up H_P since I think it was MOS, who brought up good points against him yesterday.
I need to collect my thoughts some more before placing a vote, but I'm most suspicious of HP, MBL and Yos atm, from what I remember from my read-through.
What led you to believe there were 5 total scum again? I forget the reasoning behind this.ThAdmiral wrote:@MoS: Logically I think quagmire's scumbuddy's are coron and thok, since they haven't voted him yet.
Quite simply if quagmire was town and there was a scum yet to vote they would just do it, right? (This would mean mafia win I believe)
That is unless all three mafia have already voted him, but I find that hard to believe since two of the people I most trust to be town (MoS, and STD) are ones voting.
More likely is that quagmire is scum and the people not voting yet are his scum-partners (except me, cause I'm ready to drop the hammer).
It is possible, however, that a mafiate jumped on the wagon thinking it was a lost cause, ready to throw their partner under a bus to look more pro-town. If this is the case I believe SV is scum and thok is town.
This post seems kinda suspect. Like he's trying to make sure that he's not leading the suspicion list, so he can make sure the others get lynched first or something.ThAdmiral wrote:Oh, right!
Sorry, I just got confused when I saw he only had two votes on him, but then I remembered mos unvoted him.
@Thok: seeing as you are trying to deduce who quagmire's scum partner is, do you have any lead suspects?
You made this post without ever presenting any case against Coron, so I don't see what *obvious* reasons you had...ThAdmiral wrote:Well I'm fairly suspicious of coron for fairly obvious reasons. I'm going to go do a read through to a) see if I can dig up any more dirt on coron and b) to look at how players interacted with quagmire through the game.
I'm going to call you on this, ThAdmiral. It's critical that we hit scum today, so I'm going to have to ask you to give me an in-depth case on Coron. Coron, the same goes for you. I want to see a case lined out in a single post, please. I'm doing the same as well.ThAdmiral wrote:Well I'm going to go ahead avote: coron.
Save the dragons: if you believe me and coron are scum then you have nothing to lose by putting your money where your mouth is and voting him as well. Just saying.
(And before anyone asks, no I haven't done the read through yet to dig up dirt on coron, but I will if you feel I absolutely have to. I was planning to then I remembered it was 79 pages...)
I'm assuming your new role has no abilities?ThAdmiral wrote:Mystery Meat of Doom night targets
Night 1: Switches ibaesha (Jack Johnson) with SpamWise (Jack Quinn)
Night 2: Switches MrBuddyLee (Jack Nelson) with the silent speaker (Jack Fox)
Night 3: No choice submitted
Night 4: Switches Yosarian2 (officeless) into the empty office of Jack Gallagher
Night 5: Switches spectrumvoid (Jack Irving) into the empty office of Jack Kay
On night 5, MMOD was switched into a new office with a new role: Jack zimmerman
I'm not going to comment on today's posts unless something really jumps out at me, because I could see you both making those posts as town or scum, and it's hard to differentiate at this point, since there's nothing else going on except talking about which one of us three is scum. I did notice that ThAdmiral both set himself up to make an argument against me and then turned around in the next post and said that if I was scum I've played an excellent game, which is basically the same as saying that I'm protown. That post is a possible attempt to butter me up and get me on his side.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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I'm continuing from my last analysis of Coron, since I asked him questions based on his play so far at that time. I feel that he answered all the questions adequately, but I do want to focus on this last one for a sec.
Why was ThAdmiral scum whether or not Quag was scum? Obviously, Quag WAS scum, but if he'd been town, what made you think ThAdmiral would still be scum?Coron wrote:
I dunno how I feel about the quag wagon, but it seems to me either way ThAdmiral is probably scum.Mastermind of Sin wrote:Who do you think is scum right now? Do you approve of the Quagmire-wagon?
I agree very much with this post. ThAdmiral thinking that being on the Quag wagon makes you less scummy doesn't really work (I think I actually missed this in my TA analysis). Quag's been scummy for quite some time, and he probably would've been lynched the day before had people not lurked until NL, so it's not like he wasn't pretty much condemned already. I'd been pushing him for something like 3 or 4 days by then, and as suspects dwindled, people were agreeing.Coron wrote:
How do we know we have 3 scum left? Do you know something we don't?ThAdmiral wrote: Quite simply if quagmire was town and there was a scum yet to vote they would just do it, right? (This would mean mafia win I believe)
That is unless all three mafia have already voted him, but I find that hard to believe since two of the people I most trust to be town (MoS, and STD) are ones voting.
you act like jumping on a bandwagon of someone who it looks like is going to die anyway makes you less likely to be scum. This is a reasonably common thing to be done by scum.ThAdmiral wrote:More likely is that quagmire is scum and the people not voting yet are his scum-partners (except me, cause I'm ready to drop the hammer).
This feels protown to me.Coron wrote:
:goodposting:Save The Dragons wrote:
No.ThAdmiral wrote: Save the dragons: if you believe me and coron are scum then you have nothing to lose by putting your money where your mouth is and voting him as well. Just saying.
ThAdmiral, there is no reason to rush through the day, that is unless you're scum trying to minimize the information town has.
Point against. Coron kept saying that ThAdmiral was ridiculously scummy and couldn't understand why people didn't agree, but he never explained *why* ThAdmiral was scummy up to that point.Coron wrote:I didn't vote quagmire yesterday because ThAdmiral was/is ridiculous scummy. I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy, and I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy.
Got it?
I think after that I asked Coron to explain it, though since he soon posted some reasoning.
I'm not really sure I agree that density > total #, but I don't really have a counterargument. I'm not sure what the problem I have with this argument is, bah. >_< Also, point in favor of CoronTown, since he actually voiced suspicion of someone *other* than ThAdmiral, whereas ThAdmiral has pretty much gone solely after Coron after Quag's death.Coron wrote:Ok, SV might have a few more scum tells on him, however look at it this way, what we want here is a density of scummy actions not a total of scummy actions, as ThAdmiral has many fewer posts in which to be scummy, and a lot of scumminess in these posts, he has an extremely high scuminess density.
Also, now MoS is acting shady again -_-
Coron's argument with me is pretty much a null tell, because I believe he would've taken issue with that regardless of alignment.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Coron Shameless Plug
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Very few/none of the tells at that point against ThAdmiral had anything to Quagmire being scum.Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Why was ThAdmiral scum whether or not Quag was scum? Obviously, Quag WAS scum, but if he'd been town, what made you think ThAdmiral would still be scum?Coron wrote:
I dunno how I feel about the quag wagon, but it seems to me either way ThAdmiral is probably scum.Mastermind of Sin wrote:Who do you think is scum right now? Do you approve of the Quagmire-wagon?
You know how I roll.Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Point against. Coron kept saying that ThAdmiral was ridiculously scummy and couldn't understand why people didn't agree, but he never explained *why* ThAdmiral was scummy up to that point.Coron wrote:I didn't vote quagmire yesterday because ThAdmiral was/is ridiculous scummy. I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy, and I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy.
Got it?
Oh by the way, I completely understand what you're saying about the scummy density. and I can refute my own arguement, it is in fact not *solely* dependant on density. After all if someone posts something scummy in his only post, as compared to someone who has done something at least mildly scummy in each one of is 50 posts. Maybe the scummy action by the 1st one was just a fluke, but with the 50 posts to view, well, his 50 scummy actions are much less likely to be a fluke.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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After having a look at voting histories (both of Coron and MoS) I am now very confused.
They read as such at the end of each day:
Legend -
read as:
day - voted for - player lynched
DNV= did not vote
Darkred= scum aligned
Orange= a town lynch the player was involved in= a scum lynch the player was involved in
Green I's
Coron
Day 1 - Spamwise - Bogre
Day 2 -DNV-Bluemonick
Day 3 -DNV- babyjesus
Day 4 -Mathcam - Mathcam
Day 5 -IIFuldu-FulduII
Day 6 -Uraj - Uraj
Day 7 -DNV- No one
Day 8 - ThAdmiral -Quagmire
Day 9 -DNV- Spectrumvoid
MoS
Day 1 - Spamwise - Bogre
Day 2 - Armlx -Bluemonick
Day 3 -Babyjesus - Babyjesus
Day 4 - Mrbuddylee - Mathcam
Day 5 - Ces -Fuldu
Day 6 -DNV- Uraj
Day 7 -Quagmire- No one
Day 8 -IIQuagmire-QuagmireII
Day 9 -Spectrumvoid - Spectrumvoid
Here is some analysis:
- Both of you have been involved in two town lynches each. Of these however I would only say the Spectrumvoid lynch by MoS was the only one that any of you had any real responsibility for, as MoS pushed fairly strongly for that one.
- Both of you have also been involved in the lynch of a scum. Coron's vote swing to fuldu was instrumental in his lynch, but could coron have guessed it may have happened anyway, and jumped on board early to gain town cred (he didn't provide any reason for his switch, for instance)? Quagmire's lynch was heavily pushed for by MoS, but could it have been a set up that one of the two remaining scum would throw the other under a bus to gain town cred? I don't really think either of these situations are likely to be honest: Coron could well have let things run it's course with fuldu, and there was a period where MoS and quagmire were the only one's voting and could have teamed up instead and perhaps won the game. If anything I think the MoS/quag teammate-under-bus-plan is slightly more likely though.
- The one stat that you differ in is times-not-voted. Coron failed to vote four times, and MoS only failed to vote once. I think that is fairly damming in my eyes: it is lurkish and it means that there is less to go on for players to analyze later in the game (like now).
If anything this tips me towards still voting for coron, but I can't completely look past his vote for fuldu that helped condemn a mafiate.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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ThAdmiral wrote:I assume there would be 5 mafia due to the size of the game. Is that unreasonable?
On the people I think are scum and the people I think are town: these are based on my overall feeling after reading through the game.
ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.Thok wrote:ThAdmiral's comments are making me consider the idea of us starting with 2 mafias of size 2 each and one SK, all of those groups having some nightkill protection (necessary to explain the relative lack of kills night 1). One of those mafias would be bluemonick-Fuldu, fairly obviously.
In such a scenario, my reasons for thinking MMod (now ThAdmiral) are protown are basically null and void.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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gah, forgot to address the last point, and I got distracted. I agree that the Coron lurking thing is bad, but he was inactive for a long time and was really lazy. However, that point is probably the only major thing that's keeping me from voting ThAdmiral (other than waiting for everyone to present cases).Permanent V/LA.-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.[/quote]
I don't know anymore. Based on how many kills there were on some nights, followed up by a lack of that many kills in subsequent nights what would you say? Do you think 4 person mafia with another killing role that wasn't always used or 2 2 person mafias where sometimes one team didn't send in a kill?-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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I don't know anymore. Based on how many kills there were on some nights, followed up by a lack of that many kills in subsequent nights what would you say? Do you think 4 person mafia with another killing role that wasn't always used or 2 2 person mafias where sometimes one team didn't send in a kill?Mastermind of Sin wrote:ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.
*Fixed*
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